Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd

Good afternoon. I am Charu Park, head of IR. I want to extend my greetings to you all in this year of the Blue Dragon, blue being the corporate brand color of Shinhan. I would like to first of all thank you for taking part in the Q4 and the 2023 full-year earnings presentation of Shinhan Financial Group. Today's earnings presentation is attended by our new CFO, Chun Sang-yong, and Shinhan Car CFO, Choi Jae-hoon. And also, to explain about the economic outlook for 2024, we have with us Ko Yoo-sun, the Director of the Future Strategy Research Institute. We also have with us the Group CSO, Ko Seok-heon, Group CRO, Bang Dong-kwon, Bank CFO, Kim Ki-hoon, Sinan Securities CFO, Lee Hee-dong, and from Sinan Life Insurance, CFO, Park Kyung-won. In today's earnings presentation, we will first hear the 2023 four-year business results and the outlook for 2024, and afterwards, we will proceed to a Q&A session. We now invite the CFO, Chun Sang-yong, for the 2023 earnings presentation. Good afternoon. I am Sang Young Chun. I am serving as the CFO of Sinan Financial Group starting from this year. You can be rest assured that I will be committed to enhancing the group's corporate value and be open and forthcoming in all of my communications with the market. Let me now walk you through the business results for 2023 Q4 as well as for the full year. First, on the financial highlights on page 5. In Q4 of 2023, the group realized $549.7 billion in net income, down 53.9% QOQ, owing to several one-off factors and recognition of expenses to prepare for future uncertainties. On a full year's basis, the group's net income came to $4,368,000,000. Despite the robust top line led by the non-interest income, the net income is down... 6.4% YOY due to the conservative recognition of credit cost and preemptive recognition of expenses. The group's full-year CIR is down 2.5 percentage point to post 41.4%. Together with efforts at the group level to raise cost efficiencies, growth in operating profit has enabled the CR to be managed at a stable level. The group's full-year credit cost ratio is 57 BIPs up 23 BIPs, YOY. This is due to the preemptive additional provisioning made based on the conservative SLC and re-rating of the PF project site. Excluding such factors, the recurring level credit cost ratio stands at 38 BIPs. Finally, the group's capital policy. Today, through the BOD meeting, the per share year end dividend has been decided at 525 Korean won, and so the annual per share dividend comes to 2,101. As such, the total shareholder return rate for 2023 is finalized at 36.0%, including the 485.9 billion won in the four rounds of share buyback and cancellations. On the next page, the status of the shareholder returns and the plan for shareholder returns in 2024 will be explained to you in greater detail. Starting from 2022, our company has been paying out quarterly dividends and have engaged in share cancellations more regularly to implement our shareholder return policy. In 2024 as well, we plan to pay cash dividends quarterly in uniform amounts just as we have done last year and also increase the per share dividends. Given that the base date for the year-end dividend and the dividend base date for Q1 of 2024 is quite close to each other, after the 2024 February year-end dividend BOD, the resolution was made to set the base date on February 23rd, which was the nearest date, also to enhance the predictability of the investors. In the case of the 2024 quarterly dividend, the base date was the same as the previous year, and the payment date for the dividend for Q1, Q2, Q3 were set for May 10th, August 9th, and November 8th. In addition, going forward, the policy for share buyback and cancellation will be subject to regular reviews, as happened in the case last year, including the $150 billion one-for-Q1 resolved at the VOD today. But on an annual basis, we intend to carry out cancellations that go beyond the level of the previous year. This will allow us, like last year, to continue to gradually increase the total shareholder return rate this year. On page 7, please refer to the explanation on the direction of the mid- to long-term capital policy in long-term since 2022. On page 8 to 10, you will find the key financial highlights of the group and the explanation of the special one-off factors in Q4, as well as their earnings indices of the group. Please refer to it at your leisure. Now let me move on to the group's business results in greater detail from page 11. Page 11, the group's interest income. In 2023, the group's full-year interest income is up 2.1% YOY to post $10,817.9 billion on the back of one-biz rise of the margin and growth of 2.6% in interest-earning assets. In Q4, the banks then posted 1.62%, down one bit from Q3, owing to the rise in funding costs as low-cost deposit declined and margins fell modestly while loan assets grew. The bank loan assets grew 1.4% in Q4 and on a full-year basis is up 3.2%. Household loans turned back to growth in Q4 and is down only 0.7% YTD despite the falling demand for unsecured loans impacted by the rise in interest rates and the DSR regulations, as well as the impact from the securitization of the safe conversion relief loans. Corporate loans grew 6.6% YTD with loan demand strong throughout the year for both the large companies and SMEs. For more details, please refer to page 39. Next on page 12 are more details on the bank's loan asset growth and the funding and margin status. Please refer to it later on. Next on page 13 is the group's non-interest income. The group's non-interest income is up 51.0% YOY as gains and securities improved significantly in the absence of the rapid interest rate hike effect of 2022. On a QQ basis, despite the growth in insurance income, social contribution program-related expenses and alternative investment valuation losses were recognized. Thus, the group's non-interest income was down 47.0%. The group's fee income grew 9.7% YY due to the increase in gains related to recovery in retail consumption and stock market. The group's insurance income is up 26.8% QQ, impacted by the changes in the best estimate assumptions. Next, on page 14, our information on the current status of the group's non-interest income. Please refer to it at your leisure. Next, on page 15, the group's SG&A. The SG&A is up 6.8% over Q3 due to seasonal factors, but on a YOY basis, the growth in depreciation and amortization and recognition of the ERP expense and the impact of the inflation had led to an increase of 4.5%. The group's cumulative CIR posted 41.4%, down 2.5% YOY due to the improved operating profit despite growth in SG&A. When the impact of the ERP is excluded, it comes to 40.0%, improving by 2.7%.

And now the group's credit costs on page 16. The group's provision for credit losses throughout the year increased by 7.8% YOY, reflecting additional provisions for the deterioration of asset quality due to prolonged high interest rates and conservative economic outlook. On a QOQ basis, there was a 61.4% increase in the provisions driven by adjustments in the group's risk capital values, including LGD for real estate mortgage loans and additional recognition of credit costs through reassessment of real estate PF-related business sites. Looking at the delinquency rates regarded as leading indicators of credit loss provisions, the bank recorded a decrease of 2 bps QQ to 0.26%, indicating proactive management, however increased by 4 bps YOI. For CARD, due to preemptive credit measures, both the delinquency and the two-month delinquency migration rates increased by 9 bps and 6 bps respectively QQ to 1.45%, and 0.46% respectively. Groups as a quality income by subsidiaries and overseas business are explained from pages 17 to 21. Let us go to page 22 for my major capital indicators. The year-end CET1 ratio is expected to be 13.13%, an increase of 21 BIPs QQ. Please refer to pages 23 and 24 for the group's digital and ESG initiatives. And now, the 2024 Outlook. This year's Outlook will be presented by Head of Shinhan Future Strategy Research Institute, Ko Yu-sun. Hello, I am Ko Yu-sun, heading the Future Strategy Research Institute. Let me walk you through the Domestic Business Environment Outlook for 2024. First, following last year's growth rate of 1.4%, this year's GDP growth is also expected to remain in the mid to late 1% range. While the recovery of exports in the semiconductor and IT sectors from last year's slump is seen as positive, it is anticipated that domestic consumption will continue to be hampered by high inflation and high interest rates. It is expected that this year's growth rate will again remain below the potential growth rate of 2%. within this growth trajectory the funding demand for export companies is expected to increase this year however the financial situation and asset quality of domestic companies are expected to deteriorate overall the asset growth momentum in the financial sector is expected to decelerate Let me address the inflation rate. Due to these conflicting factors, inflation is expected to gradually decline, but it will likely exceed the BOK's inflation target of 2% for a considerable period. Consequently, household consumption capacity is expected to be constrained by inflationary pressures, leading to a delay in the recovery of consumer goods companies. And for businesses and financial institutions, managing supply chains and SG&A stably will become pertinent because growth is going to be restrained. And next, let's discuss interest rates. In 2024, interest rates are forecast to remain in the mid-3% range similar to last year based on the average yield of three-year government bonds. Both Korea and the U.S. are expected to consider lowering base rates only after the middle of the year due to inflation concerns, resulting in a gradual decline in market interest rates. Even if rates decrease, they will still be higher compared to the low interest rate environment of the 2010s, leading to increased funding costs and delinquency risks for financial institutions. The impact of these high interest rates is expected to vary by industry depending on funding methods and asset quality levels of banks and credit specialized financial companies. Lastly, the real estate market. While Korea's household debt-to-income ratio remains high, concerns about persistently high interest rates and potential defaults in real estate PF suggest that the stagnation in the domestic real estate market will continue this year. However, the possibility of the crisis spreading to the broader financial system appears low thanks to the relevant government measures taken. In 2024, the domestic real estate market is expected to witness a polarization, with strong preference for prime assets such as properties in the Seoul metropolitan area and apartments, while preference for other regions and non-apartment housing weakens. And more than anything, strengthened financial authorities' prudential measures and capital regulations, coupled with increased burden on the financial sector, seems inevitable. This concludes the Business Environment Outlook. Thank you for your attention. Thank you. On page 27, I will go over the financial guidance for 2024. Firstly, the group plans to drive growth in one-denominated loans considering the nominal GDP growth rate level in order to facilitate efficient RWA and capital management. Additionally, while anticipating at least one interest rate cut in the latter half of the year, we will pursue an active margin management policy. We will strive to continuously improve non-interest income by actively responding to market trends, as we have done in 2023. Furthermore, we will strengthen group-wide cost efficiency activities by implementing efficient SG&A management, aiming to maintain the group CIR ratio at the early 40% range. Lastly, regarding the most critical aspect for this year, the provision for credit losses, we plan to continue enhancing our conservative risk policies to manage the credit cost ratio within the previous year's levels. From page 29 and onward, details about the major subsidiaries and their business results are outlined. Please refer to them for more information. This concludes the presentation, and we'll go into Q&A. Thank you. Thank you for the presentation, and now we will take your questions. For those of you who have a question, as we have already notified, while you're on Zoom, please use the raise hand function, and we will be providing consecutive Korean interpretation for English questions.

You will receive the first question from HSBC, Mr. Wen Jiehong. So please ask your question. In a difficult and challenging environment, thank you very much for your effort to advance your shareholder return policy. So in 2023, 36% was done. And last year, 30%. So the policy is up 6% now. The share cancellation disclosure shows that 160 billion won was disclosed at this time. So according to our understanding, uniform quarterly cancellation and uniform dividend is what we understand to be our policies. So this year, share buyback is about 600 billion. billion so the return rate was 16% or 11% last year and this year if you calculate it's going to be about 12% so 1% point is going to go up and cash dividend was 24.8% and if dividend goes up from there in the case of last year this was about so from the 6% return rate it's going to go up so So that means the growth rate or increase rate will drop this year. Are you going to have the same cash dividend policy? Or should we continue to expect the level of return rate increases that you have shown over the previous years? So thank you very much for those questions. Please wait for a while while we prepare the answers. So you talked about the shareholder return policy last year. When we announced our shareholder return policy, we talked about three things mainly. First, the per share dividend, we will expand, and we also will have regular quarterly dividends, and we will engage in flexible share buyback so that the total shareholder return can be expanded gradually. So the foundation of this will be the stable CT1. And so in our view, shareholder return rate, coupled with the commitment of the company the policy and the consistent implementation and financial stability must underpin all this so with regards to policy we have made a very clear announcement and last year Despite market concerns, the CET1 ratio was defended and the quarterly share cancellation was undertaken so that we have implemented our share return policy and our consistent implementation was also demonstrated to the market. As we have said, in the case of dividends, solid increase will be made. And in the case of total shareholder return, share cancellation will be done flexibly. That is a key point. And as you've said, primary, on a quarterly basis, about 150 billion won in terms of methods, whether it's going to be quarterly or maybe it can be a six-month basis, but the annual dividend level is going to be that. We will be able to do sufficiently at that level. Although there are a number of uncertainties, we will be looking at the P&L level, and we will be engaging flexibly in share consideration going forward. And the pace and the magnitude of the growth of the return rate is something that we cannot be able to ascertain at this point. It depends on the macro situation and other factors. So we will take those into consideration, and a BOD resolution will be passed in this regard. But with regards to our commitment, we will stand firm and maintain that commitment. And this year it's a bit down, but... the top-line profitability that we have, and also given our loss absorption capacity, we do believe that we have the ability to carry out our existing shareholder return policy. That is all. Thank you.

Thank you for that answer. We'll take the next question. It's from Dacian Securities, Park Kae-jin. Please go ahead. Hello, I am Park Hyejin from Dijon Securities. I have a question about the provisions in securities compared to, you know, on a QOQ, there was the valuation loss of the non-securities. So I'd like some details on that. And the second question is the financial authorities, they are strengthening the provision regulations for securities. credit companies and so the capital requirements have become more conservative and is that included in the Q4 numbers? Thank you. Thank you. Please hold as we prepare the answer. Yes, as for non-marketable securities, the securities provisions and the non-bank side provisions, and security CFO will answer, and then I'll take the second part of the question. Thank you for the question. I am security CFO Lee Hee-dong. So you did talk about the provision-related matters, non-marketable securities, and about the losses and the provisions. In Q4... We have done the year-end closing, and we were conservative and preemptive about the provisioning requirements. And of that, what had occurred was the real estate PF. And other than that, for overseas alternative investment part, recently the investments were not recent. They were made quite a while ago. It was before COVID-19. And after the investment was made, the interest rates remained high and the underlying asset was re-rated and there were losses incurred from that repricing effect. And... In the past, when we were doing the PBS business, line fund, and there was the TRS contract, and for the underlying assets, the asset repricing led to losses. So that is it for my end of the answer. Yes. As for the non-bank side, as you mentioned recently, real estate PF is affecting non-bank side rather than the bank loan loss absorption and provisioning, and the financial authorities are more worried about non-bank. So near the closing period, capital, savings, securities, the PF provisions have been set aside conservatively. So that's what I can say at the outset. And as for securities, for real estate PF, 8.3% was the provisioning rate. Capital was 5.5%. That was the provisioning rate. And the senior debts, and as for the individual business sites, the provisioning rates are going to be different. So internally, up until the very end, we have provisioned against those potential losses very conservatively. Thank you. We'll take the next question. We don't have anyone with their hands raised. Yes, we have a question.

HSBC, Wen Jiehong. So Mr. Wen, you're on mic. Yes, I thank you very much for this additional opportunity for asking questions. It's the same question I asked previously, but I want to clarify. So, treasury share, the uniform, you know, buyback or cancellation is going to be flexibly done? I didn't really quite understand your answer about this part, so can you elaborate on that? Once again, we would like to ask you to wait for a few seconds while we prepare the answer. So when we talk about the shareholder return policy, predictability has been very much emphasized. Starting from last year, we have engaged in quarterly cancellation. But, you know, there can be a lot of changes to the environment. So it may not be, you know, shareholder cancellation only. But depending on the situation, it can be a six-month basis. There is room to move in, you know. handle it differently. But on an annual basis, we will continue to expand upon the size of the share cancellation. So that would be my answer to your question.

Yes, we have Kim Doha from Hana Securities. Please go ahead with your question. Hello, thank you for giving me the chance. I may have missed the explanation. So for additional provision, you talked about $350.6 billion and Could you share with us the breakdown of the provision and recurring CCR, what is the expected level of recurring CCR this year? Yes, thank you for your question. Please hold as we prepare the answer.

Yes.

My answer may not be satisfactory, and if you need more information after today's call, we'll give you additional data. We have set aside 350 for counter-cyclical buffer and LGD adjustment, 160 billion. Exposure, 230 billion. And real estate repricing preemptive, it was $160 billion. So that would be the breakdown. And as for the second question about the recurring credit cost ratio, and it's kind of difficult to directly answer that question because last year on an annual basis, it was 57 BIPs. The credit cost was very high. and it was mostly recurring provision increase because of uncertainties and our preemptive loss absorption and because of regulations. And will this credit cost be maintained? Well, in the past, when we do a time series, In 2008, GFC and before the previous crises, they had risen to 60 bps and 80 bps. But compared to those periods, the systemic risks are less likely to happen. And we do have the management systems in place for the asset quality management. So we don't think that that will go as high. And up until last year, we have set aside provisioning on a very conservative perspective. And this year, maybe the economic deterioration could worsen, but our internal target is to maintain the CCR at a level of previous year. Thank you.

Thank you very much for that answer. So next question is from CLS Securities, Shin Jong-min. So you can ask your question. Good afternoon. I'm Shin Jong-min. Thank you very much for this opportunity. So I have one question. In the presentation on page six, on the bottom half, if you look at the notes, capital allocation plan, it states four. So, of course, it may differ depending on the quarter, including the share buyback on an annual basis. 40% of shareholder return rate, is that to be expected? Does this mean that or does it hold a different meaning? So please hold while we are preparing an answer for the question. Thank you. So let me take that question. It's very fine print, but you read that well. So capital allocation plan 624, well, what that means is that internally 60% of the growth of the net income will be used in our growth and maybe 40% will be used for shareholder return. So what you need to consider more from that is also the economic cyclicality and other factors. But you should not interpret that as mechanically, automatically meaning 40% of shareholder return rate. No, that is not the interpretation.

Yes, we'll take the next question. It's from NH Securities. Please go ahead with your question. Hello, I am Jung Joonsup from NH Securities. Thank you for giving me the chance to answer the questions. For mid- to long-term capital management, CT1 ratio target is set at 13%, and maybe I think you're considering the regulatory environment. So this year, up until the year end, within realistically feasible perspective. So how much higher do you intend to raise the CT1 ratio? And the CT1 ratio at the end, will that be connected with the shareholder return policy? Thank you. Thank you for the question. Please hold as we prepare the answer. Yes, you did ask about the capital ratios. And as for CT1, with the counter cyclical buffers and stress buffers up until the year end, we do believe that the guidelines will be confirmed. And within that boundary, the CT1 ratio target is 13%. So you did ask about the anticipated CET1 ratio. We are running many simulations, and we want to manage our CET1 ratio above 13%, and is this related to shareholder return policy? When we talk about the principle of shareholder return policy, we say that the prerequisite is stable CET1 ratio. we look at the stability and the loss absorption capacity of CET1 ratio. So that will be the prerequisite. So, yes, the two factors are connected. And internally, we believe the CET1 ratio level comes first, and we are mindful of the shareholder return policy. Yes, thank you for the answer. We'll take the next one.

Julia from J.P. Morgan Securities. Please ask your question.

So good afternoon.

Thank you very much for this chance to ask questions. I have two questions. First is related to the social contribution program. So from the total, how much of that was reflected in the fourth quarter and the remaining balance, at what point will they be recognized as expenses? The timing is my question. And what has been recognized in the fourth quarter? Is it categorized as operational expense, or is it categorized as provisioning? And my other question is, you talked about the real estate PF. $167 billion has been provisioned in addition, but with regards to overseas real estate, I think you also... mentioned that you recognize losses for that as well. So overseas countries, provisioning, is that amount included in the amount that you have presented? And recently, with regards to U.S. commercial real estate, there are growing concerns. How much of an exposure do we have on that front, and what kind of risk does that pose to the company? Can you provide your answer in financial indicators? So thank you very much for those questions. Please hold while we are preparing the answer. Thank you. So you have asked two questions. So with regards to social contribution program, the CSO will answer those questions. And with regards to the overseas alternative investment, the RCRO will take those questions. If additional comments is necessary, I will be providing those. So good afternoon. I'm Kim Kyung-yoon, the Bangsa CFO. Thank you very much for those good questions. In the case of the social contribution program, the total amount... is 376 billion including all of the different elements and 14.6 billion has been recognized in 2004 and the remaining has been reflected in 2023 and the account category is other operational expense. I'm the group CRO. So with regards to real estate PF provisioning, the overseas alternative investment is separate from that. In the case of the overseas alternative assets, the U.S. commercial real estate has been referred to. So in the case of overseas real estate, about $4.1 trillion. Insurance, 1.6. And bank, 1 trillion. And MPL is about 5%. So 70% is in the form of beneficiary certificate. And every year, from an outside rating company, we receive ratings. And every year, we recognize the losses. And in the fourth quarter of last year, $130 billion was recognized as losses. And how we manage this? Most of them are real estate. On All Out, inspection on-site, inspection audit is conducted among the 4.6 trillion assets. We select the assets at issue, and among the assets with issues, we carry out reviews, and priority watch list assets are also selected. So that's how we manage it. So among the priority watch list assets, the valuation losses are being recognized. And through such close management, we will be carefully managing these assets. So let me comment and add to that. In your question, you talked about the U.S. commercial real estate market. concerns about this. Yes, we do understand this is a very risky situation and several years ago, starting from several years ago for overseas alternative assets and the U.S. commercial real estate, we have engaged in ongoing monitoring and as the CRO mentioned, through an outside rating company and we have used objective standards to review them and sufficient loss recognition is being made. Internally, for the overseas alternative assets and for the overseas real estate, we have been identifying assets that are at issue. And over a span of three years, we have been provisioning against losses. And in our judgment, among the assets with issues, 35% of the book value has been provisioned against losses. Of course, losses can be greater than that. However, even our loss provision up until now, we believe that additional losses in the future will be quite constrained. Of course, we will continue to engage in monitoring and if the need arises, we will set aside additional provisioning. Thank you.

Thank you very much for that answer. We are still waiting for the next question. Let us hold until we see the next question come up. Please use the raise hand function on your Zoom screen if you have a question. From Hana Securities, Kim Doha. Yes, please go ahead. I want to ask a minor question. What is the margin trend by quarter? What are your expectations? Thank you. Yes, thank you for the question. Please hold as we prepare the answer. Yes, you talked about the margin by quarter. The bank CFO will answer. Yes, in 2024, the margin trend will be shared with you. What we expect is in the first half, the high rate installment savings will become mature and there will be repricing. And in the second half, interest rate cut will be made and so overall compared to 2023, the margin will fall slightly and we'll manage within that. Thank you.

Thank you very much for that answer. I think we have received a lot of questions today. If you have not been able to ask your questions during the earnings presentation, please contact our IR team. With this, we would like to conclude the Q4 and 2023 full-year earnings presentation of the China Financial Group. We would like to ask for your continued support, and I hope that our future earnings presentations will help to further your understanding and insight into our company. Thank you very much, and we wish you a nice Lunar holiday. Thank you.