2/12/2025

speaker
Audra
Call Operator

during this time, simply press the star key, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. As a reminder, your conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Hans Bjorkman, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.

speaker
Hans Bjorkman
Vice President, Investor Relations

Thanks, Audra. Good morning, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call. Our speakers this morning are Jean-Michel Rivieres, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and John Simms, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Slides two and three contain important information, including certain legal disclaimers. For example, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. We will also present certain non-U.S. GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of those figures to U.S. GAAP financial measures are available in the appendix. Our website also contains copies of the earnings release as well as today's presentation. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jean-Michel.

speaker
Jean-Michel Rivieres
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Hans. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. I'll stop on slide four. 2024, we generated 23% return on invested capital as we executed our strategy and strengthened our competitive advantages in our core uncoated free sheet market. We improved our financial position by repaying $154 million in debt, achieving a net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 0.9 times. We earned $632 million in adjusted EBITDA, generated $248 million in free cash flow, and returned $130 million in cash to shareholders. We reinvested $221 million across our manufacturing network and of Brazil Forestland to strengthen our low-cost position. We are committed to being the investment of choice and believe we can generate significant shareholders' returns in the future by executing our strategy. Slide 5 highlights our 2024 full-year key financial metrics. Our adjusted EBITDA was $632 million with a 17% margin. Our $248 million of free cash flow was more than $6 per share. Our adjusted operating earnings were $7.42 per share, which is 14% higher than 2023. We now have three full years under our belt in becoming an independent company. And our financial results have established a solid track record and are indicative of our ability to navigate tough industry conditions challenging in general political events and other uncertainty that we may face. As we enter 2025, we are confident in our ability to continue to create value for customers and shareholders. Let's move to slide six. We had very strong cash generation to finish the year. This allows us to pay down additional debt We invest in our business and return cash to shareholders. Our teams collaborated well with customers to manage through a successful transition as a result of the Georgetown mill closure. I want to thank our employees for their hard work and execution as we navigated through the transition. I also want to thank our customers for the trust they place in us each and every day. We're committed to remain the supplier of choice and we'll work hard to earn and retain the business. Lastly, regarding Project Horizon, our cost reduction program to streamline manufacturing, to buy chain and overhead costs, we exceeded our 110 million year end-run rate saving goals by 34 million. John will cover this in more detail in a few slides. Let's move to the next slide. Slide 7 shows our fourth quarter key financial metrics. We earn adjusted a bit of $157 million with a margin of 16%. Free cash flow generation was $100 million as we generated adjusted operating earnings of $1.96 per share. I'm proud of how our team delivered impressive results while taking care of our customers. More importantly, I'm proud of our team's commitment to putting people before paper to ensure everyone returns home safe at the end of each day. We are focused on building a resilient safety culture by involving every team member in our efforts to proactively eliminate risk and create a safer environment for everyone every day. Now, John will review our performance in more detail.

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Jean-Michel, and good morning, everyone. Slide eight contains our fourth quarter earnings bridge versus the third quarter. The 157 million of adjusted EBITDA was in line with our outlook of 150 to 165 million. Price and mix was unfavorable by 18 million. Forty percent of this was driven by lower pulp and paper pricing in Europe, and about 30 percent was due to worse mix in North America. Volume increased by 6 million, driven by the seasonality of Latin America. Operations and other costs were stable due to favorable effects and less economic downtime in North America, which more than offset the planned 10-year turbine generator maintenance event at our Eastover mill that we highlighted on our last earnings call. We also had some one-time events, some planned, like an insurance settlement, and others like a LIFO adjustment. Plan maintenance outages cost increased by 17 million as we executed a major planned outage at the East River Mill in the quarter. Input in transportation costs increased by 9 million, driven by transportation and seasonally higher energy prices. Move to slide nine. A core pillar of our strategy is to be a low cost producer. Project Horizon, cost reduction program to streamline manufacturing, supply chain, and overhead costs is helping us to stay low cost. As Jean-Michel mentioned earlier, before inflation, we exceeded our $110 million year-end run rate savings goal by $34 million. We beat our manufacturing savings targets by delivering results on over 180 initiatives across all three regions. These projects targeted chemical, energy, and fixed cost reductions, as well as improving fiber efficiency and productivity. We surpassed our supply chain savings targets by reducing approximately 20% of our distribution centers in North America, optimizing sheeting and rewriting outsourcing processes, as well as other initiatives across our network. We executed all these initiatives while maintaining our focus on the customer experience. As we mentioned several quarters ago, we eliminated about 150 salaried positions or 7% globally. These collective efforts are making us a leaner, stronger company. Let's move to slide 10. Another important part of our strategy is to invest in high return projects to strengthen our competitive advantages and increase future earnings and cash flow. Here are two examples at one of our flagship mills in Latin America, a Luis Antonio mill, where we are already seeing positive results. The first project increases our self-generation of power at the mill by upgrading the turbine and gearbox on one of our turbine generators. This was a $7 million investment that started up in the third quarter of 2024 and is showing approximately a 25% internal rate of return. The second project reduces our production waste by installing a new transition system on one of our paper machines. This was a $1 million investment that also started up in the third quarter of 2024 and is yielding approximately a 40% internal rate of return. These are just a few of the many high return projects that we were assessing and implementing to make us more competitive in the future. Let's go to slide 11 and look at our first quarter outlook. We expect to deliver first quarter adjusted EBITDA of 85 to 105 million. We project price and mix to be unfavorable by 10 to 15 million. This is due to paper price decreases in Europe and in our Brazilian export regions, plus seasonally unfavorable mix in Latin America. These decreases are projected to be partially offset by realization on paper price increases communicated to customers in North America and Brazil in the fourth quarter. We should see higher realization from these increases in the second quarter. We expect volume to be unfavorable by 20 to 25 million due to seasonally weakest demand quarter in Latin America and lower North America volume from the Georgetown Mill exit. Operations and other calls are projected to be stable to slightly up as our Project Horizon initiatives offset the non-repeat favorable fourth quarter event. We expect input in transportation costs to increase by five to 10 million primarily due to seasonally higher energy prices and the longer than expected extreme cold weather across the United States so far this quarter. Planned maintenance outages are projected to increase by 15 million. We expect quarterly earnings to improve throughout the year as we benefit from seemingly stronger volume, less maintenance outage expenses in the second half of the year, and realize the price increases we are currently implementing. You should note on appendix slides 44 and 45, that about 80% of our planned maintenance outages will be in the first half of this year. Let's go to slide 12. I'll shift now to talk about overall industry conditions across our region. In Europe, we're seeing improved order book and industry supply was reduced by 7% after two uncoded free sheet machines closed last year. Hope and uncurrent free sheet prices have also stabilized as we are entering the new year. In Latin America, we expect seasonally weaker industry demand in the first quarter and expect demand to be sequentially stronger in each calendar quarter like every year. In Brazil, we are currently seeing strong demand for back to school orders and notebooks. We previously communicated uncurrently free sheet price increases to our customers in Brazil effective in January. We are seeing uncoated free sheet pricing pressure for our Brazilian papers exports to other Latin America and offshore markets. In North America, we are seeing slightly lower industry demand in line with our expectations. Domestic industry supply was reduced by 10% after a few machines closed in the second half of last year. We previously communicated uncoded free sheet price increases to our North American customers effective in January. Globally, pulp industry conditions appear to be stabilizing or anticipated to improve over the course of the year. I'll turn back over to Jean-Michel to pick up on slide 13.

speaker
Jean-Michel Rivieres
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, John. We have generated substantial cash since our inception and have allocated over $1.8 billion as you can see on this slide. Over 70% of this cash was used to repay debt and reinvest in our business. After starting out with over $1.5 billion in gross debt, we have reduced it by almost 50% and have achieved a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.9 by the end of 2024. Keeping a healthy financial position is a cornerstone of our capital allocation framework. This allows us to invest in our business, to strengthen our competitive advantages through the cycle, and to increase future earnings and cash flow. As most of you already know, many people are investing to get out of encoded free sheets. Why? We have reinvested over 600 million in our business in the last three years in order to improve our competitive position. One of the main advantages we have as an independent company is that it allows us to invest in our future in a way that we could not do before. Improving our financial position allowed us to return almost $350 million to share owners through dividends and share repurchases. We will continue to look for opportunities to repurchase shares at attractive prices. We have generated substantial cash over the past three years and plan to continue to do so moving forward. For 2025, we are planning $220 to $240 million in capital spending. Our outlook includes approximately $125 million in maintenance and regular spending. Our Brazil forest lands are a significant competitive advantage. Galloptus Plantations provides a material cost advantage relative to most other global competitors. We plan to invest roughly $35 million in our forest land to increase our self-sufficiency and reduce wood costs. Additionally, we will complete the $30 million three years wood supply agreement to ensure adequate wood supply from 2024 to 2026. As we have been saying for several quarters, We will continue to ramp up our high return projects to strengthen our low-cost assets to increase our earnings and cash flow. This year, we expect to invest $50 to $70 million for high return projects. Slide 15. Speaking of reinvesting in our low-cost assets, we're excited to announce that we're investing in the future of one of our flagship mills, Eastover South Carolina. We have three high return projects that will reduce costs while improving efficiency and mix of the most competitive uncoated free sheet mill in North America. First, we're investing to optimize one of our two paper machines. Second, we are replacing a next distinct cut-size sheeter with a brand new sheeter. These first two projects will require a total investment of approximately 145 million over the next three years. The spending will start this year with the majority occurring in 2026. Once completed, these combined investments should have an internal rate of return of greater than 30%. They should create incremental adjusted EBITDA of more than $50 million per year. resulting in additional cash flow as well. Third, we're partnering with an industry leader in woodyard operations to modernize our woodyard and improve our efficiency, while avoiding about $75 million in capital over the next five years. This is a very exciting moment for all of us. I'll turn it to John to discuss his higher return projects in more detail.

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, thank you, Jean-Michel, and this is exciting. I'm on slide 16. The first of these high-return projects at our flagship Eastover mill will be to optimize one of our two paper machines, modernizing it to the same world-class level as our other paper machine at Eastover. We plan to make investments starting at the head box, continuing all the way down the paper machine through the forming, press, and dryer sections. including modifications to the winder at the end of the machine. These enhancements will allow us to reduce costs while improving our product mix across both paper machines. This deep bottlenecking should result in up to an incremental 60,000 tons of uncoated free sheet. The project has an investment of approximately $100 million over the next three years with an expected startup in the fourth quarter of 2026. Let's turn to slide 17. The second high-return project will be to replace an existing sheeter with a state-of-the-art cut-size sheeter. This new and more efficient sheeter will lower our sheeting costs up to 15%, reduce waste by maximizing paper machine trim while providing incremental cut-size volume capability. This sheeter will allow us to reduce outsourced sheeting while providing better reliability and additional flexibility to better service our customers. This $45 million project is expected to start up in the fourth quarter of 2026. Let's turn to slide 18. And the third high return project at East River will be to improve our wood yard efficiency through innovation, innovative modernization. We are entering into a 20-year partnership with an external provider, the Price Company. who is an industry leader in wood yard operations. They design, finance, and operate the most efficient wood yards in the world. They will invest the capital to upgrade our wood yard, and they will also operate and maintain the wood yard at the Eastover Mill. This will result in more efficient, reliable, and cost-effective wood processing operations. This project will greatly improve the overall reliability of our operations by replacing our aging wood yard equipment. As Jean-Michel mentioned earlier, this project will enable us to avoid spending about $75 million in capital over the next five years. The anticipated startup is in the first quarter of 2026. These high return projects reinforce our commitment to reinvest to strengthen our low cost assets to increase earnings and cash flow. I'll now turn it back over to Jean-Michel.

speaker
Jean-Michel Rivieres
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, John. I'm on slide 19. strive to create long-term shareholder value by executing our strategy and delivering on our investment. Since becoming an independent company just over three years ago, we have achieved the total shareholder's return of almost 150%, earned over 2 billion in adjusted EBITDA, generated over 900 million in free cash flow, reduced debt by almost 725 million reinvested over $600 million to strengthen our business, and returned almost $350 million in cash to shareholders. I'll conclude my comments on slide 20. I continue to be impressed with our team as we work to take care of our customer needs and remain the supplier of choice. We are reducing our cost structure and are reinvesting in our business through a great pipeline of high return capital projects. which will enable us to grow our earnings and cash flow in the coming years. SITBAMO is creating shareholder value through strong cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. We believe in the promise of paper for education, communication, and entertainment, and we intend to increase our competitive advantages in the regions we serve. We're confident in our future and motivated by the opportunities that lie ahead. With that, I turn the call back to him.

speaker
Hans Bjorkman
Vice President, Investor Relations

Thanks, Jean-Michel, and thank you, John. Okay, Audra, we're ready to take questions.

speaker
Audra
Call Operator

Thank you. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star 1 again. We do ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up question. Thank you. And we'll take our first question from George Stappos at Bank of America.

speaker
George Stappos
Analyst at Bank of America

Thanks so much, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details. My two questions and congratulations on the progress over the last few years. My two questions, first of all, can you talk a little bit about what impact of pricing that might be in the process of being implemented is in your guidance for the first quarter, if anything at all, or is all of that pricing more or less locked and loaded from prior um, um, efforts. And then if I go to slide eight, I believe, uh, and we look at volume, you touched a little bit on it, but volume was a little bit weaker than what you'd been looking for in the fourth quarter. Can you give us a bit more detail on what was going on there? Thank you guys.

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, Georgia. And thank you. Um, to your first question, Actually, so we have two price increases that we have announced to our customers, as we mentioned, one in Brazil. Remember Brazil? So that's about 50% of our volume down in LATAM and one in North America. And we're in the process of implementing that in the first quarter because if we are implementing, I can't give you a lot of details, but I can say that the realization because of the timing of those, it's going to be more in the second quarter and very little in the first quarter than our outlook. The second question in terms of volume, volume was lower than what we expected, really across all the regions, mostly in North America. And so that's really the difference between our outlook and the actual results.

speaker
George Stappos
Analyst at Bank of America

I guess, John, why was it a little bit weaker in North America than the other regions, if you had a view? I'm sorry, keep going.

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Oh, I'm sorry. Georgia, we were a little bit lower in the commercial printing and envelope market. Actually, the cut size, the copy paper business was actually stronger than what we expected, but it was more so in the commercial printing area.

speaker
George Stappos
Analyst at Bank of America

Okay, that makes sense.

speaker
Jean-Michel Rivieres
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Anyway, we had in North America to be... Hi, John. Michelle, thanks for joining.

speaker
George Stappos
Analyst at Bank of America

Hey, John.

speaker
Jean-Michel Rivieres
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Michelle. In North America, we had a week in November. I think we didn't anticipate it well enough all the holidays and the impact it had so we had a as planned October and December months but November was below okay thank you I'll go back to Q we'll take our next question from Matthew McKellar at RBC Capital Markets hi good morning thanks for taking my questions I'd like to start by asking about tariffs

speaker
Matthew McKellar
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

If the U.S. were to apply sustained 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and they in turn applied retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., how do you think your business would be affected, and what would be your response in that scenario?

speaker
Jean-Michel Rivieres
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

So, thanks for joining the call, first of all. This is still very difficult to assess, to be very honest. I think the 25% on aluminum and steel tariffs would have some impact that we've anticipated potentially on some of the equipment we buy because the steel or aluminum might get more expensive in the US in general. But that's not material for us. I would not be too worried about that. The rest with Canada, Mexico, if it was to happen, it's more a question of what is the retaliation we're going to get. I don't think it's going to impact us really at all if there is no retaliation. But as of now, if those tariffs were to go in place, we don't know what Canada or Mexico will do. And that's a question much I don't have the answer.

speaker
Matthew McKellar
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Thanks for that, Keller. Maybe shifting to Latin America, I think you mentioned seeing some positive trends in demand in Brazil. I'd also like to ask about your expectations for demand through the textbook order this year. And maybe putting it all together, what that implies for how your volumes and mix kind of evolved through 2025. And maybe put differently, do you expect the seasonality we typically see in LATAM to be exaggerated this year with a bigger ramp through the year than usual, driven by a more significant shift in mix, maybe especially given the prices in Brazil are going up, that you called out prices in the export channel as being under some pressure?

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, Matthew, I think one of the questions you asked is just around the textbooks in the school business. So if I heard that correctly, yes, we're seeing improved order book demand for that down in Brazil. You got to remember in Brazil last year, demand was down. So that does impact us from a negative mix perspective as we shift less into Brazil. This year, we're seeing it up, the flat is slightly up, and we expect As we said, at Brazil and also LATAM, markets will sequentially increase throughout the year. So that's going to be positive from a volume perspective, but also very positive from a mixed perspective. And that'll start to really materialize itself more as the year goes on, second and third quarter.

speaker
Matthew McKellar
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Thanks. That's helpful. I'll turn it back.

speaker
Audra
Call Operator

And as a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1. We'll go next to Daniel Harriman at Sedoti.

speaker
Daniel Harriman
Analyst at Sedoti

Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one here today from me. Can you help us a little bit with the cadence of your capital spending in 2025 within that range of 220 to 240? Should we expect more or less that capex to kind of follow the cadence that it did in 2024?

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, Dan, are you talking about, and thanks for joining, Daniel, are you talking about in terms of the timing of the spend? Is that what you mean by?

speaker
Daniel Harriman
Analyst at Sedoti

Yeah, just how should we think about it being spread out throughout the year on a quarterly basis?

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, and I think the way to think about that is more heavily weighted to the first half, because you can see 80% of our outages are in that. Now, with the spending for the that we'll do on the East Dover project that we talked about. That'll occur throughout the year, not really tied to the outages as we prepare for that implementation in 2026. Okay.

speaker
Daniel Harriman
Analyst at Sedoti

All right. Thank you, John.

speaker
Jean-Michel Rivieres
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, the outage this year particularly is probably one of the most extreme we've had in terms of timing of outages, first half versus second half of the year, which is part of our earnings growth where we have a hockey stick, you have 80% of our outage spending in the first half of the year versus 20% only in the second half. So that's a big component to take into consideration.

speaker
Daniel Harriman
Analyst at Sedoti

Thanks so much, Grant.

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

But Dan, we do look at the monthly spend, the projections that we have, and As we forecast, it's really not much different than what we had last year in terms of the monthly spend on capital.

speaker
Daniel Harriman
Analyst at Sedoti

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.

speaker
Audra
Call Operator

We'll move next to George Staffos with Bank of America.

speaker
George Stappos
Analyst at Bank of America

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the follow-ons. My next two, can you talk a little bit about how the cost curve is shifting in Europe? Certainly, pull prices stabilized. It looks like that in a few markets, but it was a declining situation in the second half. What did that mean for the cost curve and ultimately pricing and your market shares in the region? The related question, what do you think the industry operating rate is in Europe right now? Thank you.

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, George, I think when we take a look at the cost curve, it has certainly moved up as really since the Russian invasion into Ukraine. And that's really driven with that has driven increased energy costs, gas costs, as well as wood. The wood costs we've seen go up across the region. If you look at today's pricing, that's what we looked at Europe uncoded free sheet pricing is stabilizing because about 20 or so, maybe even more, a quarter of the cost curve is right now the pricing is below the cash cost. So right now, you know, we got about 20, 25% of the capacity that even with the pulp prices where they are today, which is bottoming, we have you know, cost that's above the current pricing in Europe. In terms of the operating rate, you know, it has improved because of the outages or because of the closures that occurred. Yes, and so it's in the mid-80s right now.

speaker
George Stappos
Analyst at Bank of America

Including the 10%, I think you said, reduction from closures.

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

That's right, including that, yes.

speaker
George Stappos
Analyst at Bank of America

And John, just a point of clarification, I'll turn it over. So your view is the cost curve actually is up over the last quarter, two quarters in Europe, or it's more or less stable and certainly up over the last several years because of Ukraine and the like?

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

It's a ladder. I mean, with the decreasing pulp prices, you can say that maybe quarter, sequentially quarter is slightly down, but overall, the cost curve is increasing. increased, if you will, gotten higher cost. Okay, perfect.

speaker
George Stappos
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you, John. I'll turn it over.

speaker
Audra
Call Operator

And we'll take a follow-up from Matthew McKellar at RBC.

speaker
Matthew McKellar
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Thanks very much. Just following up on an earlier response, I think you mentioned you saw lower commercial printing and envelope volumes in North America in the quarter than maybe you were anticipating. Just wanted to, I guess, get a little bit more color on that. Have you seen any kind of rebound in volumes, maybe start Q1, or whether maybe you're expecting to see some more permanent kind of demand destruction, maybe on the back of higher postal rates or any other factors?

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

No, I think we don't see that as a systemic issue. We see that coming back, and our projections are for North America that demand will be down about three percent the historical trend um that we have been seeing or well we haven't been seeing really because of the inventory corrections and all but that that we've generally been seeing over the for the industry so nothing different uh than normal okay okay thanks for that and if i could just speak one more and on the east over wood yard operations of course your partner will be laying out some capital and you're

speaker
Matthew McKellar
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

going to be avoiding spending your own capital. You also mentioned more efficient, reliable, and cost-effective operations. I guess with this agreement, how should we think about the impact to operating costs at Eastover, both in 26 versus 25, and then how things progress over the longer term, just specific to what you've announced with the wood yard here?

speaker
Jean-Michel Rivieres
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I think just the wood yard is not a huge impact in cost. It's avoidance of capital spending, the first thing, and then the yield and all of that we continue to put our wood which is very competitive even more competitive once transformed at the mill so it's a small impact but not we'll take every penny you know it counts everything in this industry it's a small impact in the cost side better reliability flexibility and avoidance of capital that's the way i would look at it

speaker
Matthew McKellar
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Okay, thanks for the help. I'll turn it back.

speaker
Audra
Call Operator

And a final reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one. And we'll go back to George Staffos at Bank of America.

speaker
George Stappos
Analyst at Bank of America

Thanks, guys. I want to piggyback off of Matt's question. So what does your partner get from you in exchange for operating the wood yard, if you can talk about the terms there? Second question, penciling it out, free cash flow for the first quarter looks to be, you know, on our math kind of neutral to maybe up $20 million. I don't know if you called it out actually in the deck or the release. If you did, I apologize for missing it, but if you could sort of give us some thoughts there, uh, and then I'll turn it over and come back into queue.

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think the, uh, Your first question, George, we're not going to really disclose the terms of the agreement other than what we said, you know, the 20-year agreement, we are paying them to service the wood yard. And the way Jean-Michel talked about it, you know, we're going to get some efficiencies on yield, but that's going to pay the service fee that we're charging them. So the big benefit there is really the capital avoidance because they will be investing installing the equipment and maintaining the equipment in the woodyard, which will significantly minorize it. So that's how that's going to work.

speaker
George Stappos
Analyst at Bank of America

And on free cash flow?

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I'm sorry, you're going to have to repeat your question again.

speaker
George Stappos
Analyst at Bank of America

John, as I was penciling it out, and I don't know if you've actually mentioned the deck or the release. If you did, I missed it. I'm kind of coming out with sort of flat to up 20 million on free cash flow for the first quarter. Could you give us some thoughts on that?

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. I'm sorry. I didn't remember that question. But, you know, we don't do it. We don't give any guidance on free cash flow.

speaker
Jean-Michel Rivieres
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Just one thing I would say is like 24, I would expect a 25 with a seasonal stronger cash flow in the second half and first half. And remember in the first out, especially first quarter, we've got these outages in Europe which impact the cash. We've got the annual incentive compensation and customer rebates. So we've got quite a one-time seasonal cost in Q1 versus the rest of the quarters. So I won't get exact number, but it might be more pressure than you have in your numbers.

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, the first quarters always are more challenging in terms of cash flow. They're worried for the year. It's just this time here.

speaker
George Stappos
Analyst at Bank of America

Understood. Hey, guys, maybe I'll throw my last two in here if it's okay. Tax rate kicks up a little bit, 28% to 29%. What's in that? And could you give us my last question? What was the effect of the one-timers in the quarter? that I know you'll be offsetting with Horizon in the first quarter, but what was kind of that benefit that you got in the fourth quarter? Thanks, and good luck in the first quarter.

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, and thanks, George. And the question on the taxes, we had a benefit last year. We bought some credits that we were able to use, and so that lowered our tax. We're not going to have that repeat right now. We're going to be continuing to look at that, but that's not in our outlook. And the other thing is lower earnings in Europe as, you know, and so that increases our tax, the overall tax rate because we have less earnings in Europe.

speaker
George Stappos
Analyst at Bank of America

Okay. And one-timers from 4Q?

speaker
John Simms
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Oh, one-timers. Yeah. So, specifically, we had $5 million insurance payment that we got in the fourth quarter. LIPA was about $7 million. Okay.

speaker
George Stappos
Analyst at Bank of America

Thanks very much.

speaker
Audra
Call Operator

I'll now turn the call back over to Hans Bjorkman for closing comments.

speaker
Hans Bjorkman
Vice President, Investor Relations

All right. Thank you. Before we close up, I'm going to let Jean-Michel kind of wrap up the call today.

speaker
Jean-Michel Rivieres
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So thank you, everybody, for joining. Exciting times, and we're writing our strategy about reinvesting in our high return projects. One thing for 25 is I don't intend to give you numbers on the annual earnings guidance, but with all the uncertainty of the macro and the geopolitical, I'll be prudent, but on a high level color, if you look at 25 versus 24, both in North America and Latin America, we plan a slightly better 25 than 24. I'll adjust it a bit there. For Europe, with this $35 million incremental maintenance outage, we plan to be worse than 24. So I'm putting that with some salt, of course, because as you mentioned, all tariffs and macro is very difficult to forecast. And it's not an exact number, but it gives you a trend, which I hope helps you. As we mentioned, we expect our quarterly earnings to improve through the year due to three main factors. seasonally strong volume, realization of the price increase in North America and Brazil, and less maintenance allergies in the second half of this year. So with that, I thank you for joining the call, and have a good day.

speaker
Audra
Call Operator

Once again, we would like to thank you for participating in SILVAMA's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. Thank you. You may now disconnect.

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