10/24/2023

speaker
Seb
Operator

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Smart Financial third quarter 2023 earnings release and conference call. My name is Seb, and I will be the operator for your call today. If you would like to ask a question on today's call, you can do so by pressing star one on your telephone keypad or press star two if you wish to withdraw your question. I will now hand the floor over to Nate Stroll to begin. Please go ahead.

speaker
Nate Stroll
Investor Relations

Thanks, Seb. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Smart Financial's third quarter 2023 earnings call. During today's call, we will reference the slides and press release that are available within the investor relations section on our website, smartbank.com. Chairman Miller-Wellborn will begin the call, followed by Billy Carroll, our president and chief executive officer. Ron Goczynski, chief financial officer, and Rhett Jordan, chief credit officer, will also provide commentary. We will be available to answer your questions at the end of our call. Our comments include forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and the actual results could vary materially. We list the factors that might cause results to differ materially in our press release and in our SEC filings, which are available on our website. We do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements because of new information, early developments, or otherwise, except as may be required by law. During the call, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures related to the company's performance. You may see the reconciliation of these measures in the appendices of the earnings release and investor presentation filed on October 23rd, 2023 with the SEC. And now, I'll turn it over to Chairman Miller-Wellborn to open our call.

speaker
Miller-Wellborn
Chairman

Thanks, Nate. The third quarter of this year has been another quarter of incredibly busy activity for SmartBank. I'm very proud of how our team has remained steadfast to our mission and our objectives for the company. It's not a secret that our industry has been challenged this year. but we see the challenges as positive opportunities. We've made a strong effort to improve every line of business that we operate, and I do sincerely believe we're poised for a bright future. Our markets remain very strong, and we're fortunate to be located in the southeastern United States where the economy remains robust. We are very proud of what we were able to accomplish for the quarter. Our entire SMBK team is focused, determined, and very clear of our goals. With that, I'm going to turn it over to Billy. Thank you.

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Miller, and good morning, everyone. Great to be with you today. I'm going to jump right in this morning and discuss our third quarter highlights. You'll see most of these on page three of our deck. All in all, a steady quarter for our company. I'll be discussing primarily non-GAAP operating metrics today, as Ron will provide some details shortly on a bond trade we did in September that had some impact on our GAAP numbers. We came in at 43 cents on operating EPS, or $7.2 million in net income. We continue to grow both sides of the balance sheet, with both loans and deposits increasing right at 5% annualized. Our loan-to-deposit ratio is staying healthy, right around 80%, giving us nice flexibility on growth. Credit is strong, with an NPA ratio of only 12 basis points, the same as prior quarter, with charge-offs continuing at a negligible number. our credit quality continues to feel very solid. And a key number we focus on here, a tangible book value moved higher even with the bond trade, now at $21.95, excluding AOCI, and $19.94 including it. As I stated, we did execute a well-timed transaction late in the quarter to reposition close to $160 million and available for sale securities. The loss taken on the trade will be earned back in a year, but accelerates our ability to reallocate assets. We like the timing and what the trade did for our forward-looking balance sheet. This, along with the large cash flows coming in early 2024, puts us in a very favorable spot related to cash positioning. Our operating income and margin were slightly below our forecast, driven primarily by heavier funding costs and some movement with balances from non-interest bearing to interest bearing. I do feel we've stabilized, and while we'll continue to see some grind higher on deposits, I feel that delta will be covered by growth and asset yield resets. I believe the net interest income number has floored, and we look forward to seeing that line move up from here. All in all, a good quarter, where we helped serve, continued adding some outstanding new clients, and positioned the company to move metrics north. I'll close with additional comments in a moment. But let me hand it over to Rhett to discuss the loan portfolio and credit, and then to Ron to dive deeper into the numbers.

speaker
Rhett Jordan
Chief Credit Officer

Rhett? Thank you, Billy. SmartBank's loan portfolio continues to grow at a moderate pace while maintaining a stable and diversified profile with continued strong credit performance. In third quarter, we saw 5% quarter-over-quarter annualized organic loan growth spread evenly across the bank's geographies and across the different segments of the portfolio. The composition of the portfolio was effectively unchanged through this growth cycle, while recognizing a 13 basis point increase in average portfolio yield, which moved up to 5.52%. Our construction portfolio saw a slight decline in outstanding balances, down about 23 million quarter over quarter, and representing 11% of total loans and 84% of total capital, a little below those same metrics for second quarter. This was an expected swing, as we've had several projects under construction moving to the completed stage, while new commercial construction stocks were slower in the early part of the 2023 year than in the same period prior year. Our non-owner-occupied non-construction CRE portfolio grew slightly in outstanding balances for the quarter, but held steady at 26% of total loans, and the total CRE ratio came in at 285% of total capital, also right in line with the last period. Again, steady performance with diversified production results. Also holding steady were our overall credit performance metrics, with NPAs, delinquency, and classified asset ratios seeing very little change quarter to quarter. While we have a slight increase in total delinquent and non-incrual loan balances since year-end 2022, the dollar amount has moved in conjunction with our overall capital growth and portfolio growth, and thus our ratio to total loans and leases has held steady. Approximately 21% of those total outstandings are carried in our equipment finance subsidiary due to some slower activity in some of its smaller trucking clientele. Credit losses for the period were 0.04 percent, with the year-to-date total being 0.06 percent through third quarter. Loss risk within our classified and delinquency portfolio is expected to be very manageable in future periods, and our allowance is more than adequately positioned to address any realized loss as these assets are navigated through. Our markets continue to report solid housing metrics, continued population growth, and overall stable economic conditions that support small business stability, and we expect solid credit quality results to continue in upcoming periods. Our allowance did reflect a slight increase from 0.98% to 1% of total loans, but this minimal increase was due to how our CECL model monetized certain impacts of various input factors that occurred during the period. The recommended provision resulted from changes to certain components in the model, such as continued portfolio balance growth, movement in unfunded commitments, quarterly net charge-offs, lower unemployment rates, and changes in key management positions. The culmination of the adjustments in each of these factors resulted in the recommended provision that was realized for the period. Overall, loan demand continues to be good, while the loan portfolio continues to maintain stable, solid credit metrics and performance. Now I'll turn the call over to Ron to discuss deposit composition, liquidity, and other key financial measures. Ron?

speaker
Ron Goczynski
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Rhett, and good morning, everyone. On slide nine, we continue to see our overall deposit levels remain stable as we build our presence and gain new clients in our expansion market areas. We ended the quarter with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 80%, driven by deposit growth of $47 million, which exceeded our quarterly funding needs and further bolstering our liquidity position. However, we did experience some upward pricing pressure and mix shift, particularly during the first two months of the quarter, as clients reacted to the Fed rate hike and competitor solicitations. Our total deposit costs increased 31 basis points to 2.20 percent and were 2.28 percent for the month of September. Despite upward pricing pressure, our strategy of lagging market rate increases and adjusting rates only as needed for competitive purposes has afforded us some buffer relative to peers. Looking ahead, we do expect some additional cost migration as clients' right-size operating accounts and look to maximize returns on idle cash. However, we believe this will occur at a much more muted pace as most of our price sensitive clients have been addressed. On slide 10, you'll see that we have updated our principal cash flow schedule to reflect the sale of almost 160 million securities at the end of September. The security sale was comprised primarily of US treasuries, approximately 100 million which had maturities in Q1 of 24 and the remainder of which had a weighted average maturity of 2.6 years. The total weighted average yield of these securities sold was 1.37 percent. Reinvested at current cash yields, the sale proceeds provide an additional 6.4 million of annual interest income, which equates to an earned back just over one year. Aside from the enhanced liquidity benefits, the securities repositioning provides additional earnings momentum as we move into Q4. Further, our current yield on cash affords us the ability to be patient in our redeployment of the sale proceeds, whether it be methodically reinvesting in securities or, preferably, funding higher-yielding loan production, both of which would accelerate the earn-back on this trade. As you'll see on slide 11, even with the securities repositioned during the quarter, we still have approximately $208 million of securities, primarily comprised of health and maturity treasuries, maturing by year-end 2024. Combined with fixed-rate and adjustable-rate loans, we have over $460 million in assets maturing or repricing by year-end 2024 with a weighted average yield of 4.08 percent. While the interest rate environment remains challenging, we are optimistic on future profitability, knowing this significant earnings catalyst is on the horizon. Our overall liquidity position on slide 13 which includes cash and securities, remained unchanged at 22% of total assets. Net interest margin was 2.81%, representing a 12 basis point contraction for the quarter. As discussed earlier, our margin was negatively impacted by increased deposit pricing pressures and mixed shift experienced during the quarter. However, we are starting to experience a slowdown in the velocity of money movement and deposit repricing as we move into Q4. In addition, Q3 saw a weighted average cost of new deposit production of 3.59 percent and new commercial loan originations in the 7.5 to 8 percent range. These factors, combined with the enhanced yield on repositioned security proceeds, we are projecting margin stabilization into Q4. Lastly, looking ahead at the next few quarters, We expect operating revenue to remain stable in the range of 38 to 39 million before returning to our previous 42 million plus run rate in the second half of 2024. We have details of our non-interest income and expenses on slides 15 and 16. Operating non-interest income was in line with Q3 guidance at 7.5 million, primarily driven by ongoing focus to identify and capitalize on those income opportunities as they present themselves. Looking ahead, we anticipate non-insurance income to continue to be in the mid-$7 million range. Total operating expenses were $28.4 million. The slight escalation was primarily to salary and benefit expense increases for incentives and commissions resulting from better-than-anticipated production and additional costs relating to a new self-insured health insurance program. While our efficiency ratio was at 74 percent, which is above our internal target, we recognize that it's primarily a function of the pressures of an abnormal rate environment rather than lack of expense control. Despite this, we continue to be extremely diligent on all expenditures while identifying opportunities to cut or delay expenses. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we project non-interest expenses in the 25, excuse me, 28.5 to $29 million range and salary and benefit expenses in the range of 16.5 to $17 million. And finishing off on slide 17, we had minimal change to our capital ratios from the prior quarter, even with the loss associated with the securities repositioning. We remain in a strong, well-capitalized position and, most importantly, continue to execute on our primary mission to grow and defend tangible book value. With that said, I'll turn it back over to Billy.

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Ron. As you can see with our trends, we are positioned well in playing offense. With the stabilization we've discussed and more clarity on the rate forecast, we are diligently focusing on building the revenue number back after absorbing these rate increases. I remain confident in our ability to execute on that front. My outlook on loans is still fairly bullish as we are continuing to see nice pipelines. We are lending and feel that we can continue this same mid-single-digit pace. With that, deposits need to be growing at the same pace, and I feel we can fund that growth internally as well. As Ron discussed, we are continuing our internal focus on efficiency and expense control, and I do believe expense growth should be fairly well contained. We are looking to add revenue producers within existing markets and do feel we can make some of those additions in the coming quarters, but any expense growth there should be offset by increased revenues. Miller and I spent several days on the road again this quarter, continuing our market roundtables and meeting with clients and prospects throughout our footprint. The bank's momentum in these markets is outstanding and continues to gain steam. I see tremendous opportunity for our company as there are a number of changes happening in our industry. We've chosen a path to continue to do what we've done successfully in the past, investing with an eye on long-term revenue and EPS growth. Again, overall, I felt a good quarter where we held serve, held credit, grew loans and deposits, grew tangible book value, and set us up as we look forward. As these rates settle, our loan balances grow and reprice, plus our ability to utilize the outsized cash flows coming in early next year, our company is positioned very well. I'll close with a huge shout-out to our 600-plus outstanding associates that we have in this company. These team members continue to build a phenomenal culture, and it's greatly appreciated. I'm going to stop there and open it up for questions.

speaker
Seb
Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad or press star two if you would like to withdraw your question. Our first question today comes from Thomas Wendler at Stevens Inc. Please go ahead.

speaker
Thomas Wendler
Analyst, Stevens Inc.

Hey, good morning, everyone. Just thinking about the 106 million security sale and the 184 million of securities maturing by 2Q24. With these increased cash balances you guys are likely to see, could we see loan growth maybe over that mid single digit range?

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

Thomas, you know, it's really, it's possible. You know, I think we're positioned to grow loans at whatever pace we can find them. I think it's just a function to find the right ones in this sort of an environment. But we've had a lot of success doing that. So we've got the capacity to do it. we're going to continue to get out there and grind and dig and find good credits to add to the books. But it's possible. But I still like kind of giving the environment that mid-single-digit forecast for us going forward.

speaker
Thomas Wendler
Analyst, Stevens Inc.

Okay. No, I appreciate that color. And then just kind of staying on that, with all of these earning assets kind of repricings coming up through 2K24, NII staying kind of – has floored from here. How are you thinking about NIM moving forward?

speaker
Ron Goczynski
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, at this point, you know, Thomas, our margin has been difficult to forecast, as many others. You know, this quarter we did experience higher betas than modeled. It increased to 39% from 32% from the prior link quarter. You know, we were projecting 36%. As we move forward, you know, we do expect some compression. but some of our repricing will minimize that effect. At this point, we're just going to say our NIM is stabilized, and we're projecting like results for Q4. We do see our NIM getting better throughout 2024 as we get to the second half, but right now we're just going to say we're going to be stable for a while.

speaker
Thomas Wendler
Analyst, Stevens Inc.

All right. I appreciate all the color. Thanks for answering my questions, guys.

speaker
Seb
Operator

Thanks, Thomas. Thanks, Thomas. The next question comes from Steven Scouten at Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

speaker
Steven Scouten
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Yeah, good morning, everyone. Thanks. I guess one question just on the securities repositioning. Good morning. The securities repositioning trade, I'm just kind of curious on the dynamic. It sounded like a chunk of that was maybe already set to mature in the first quarter or so. Kind of what drove that given the short duration there or was more of the actual lost content, I guess, related to some of the longer dated portion of that trade?

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

You may start, Ron.

speaker
Ron Goczynski
Chief Financial Officer

I'll start, Ron.

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

Go ahead.

speaker
Ron Goczynski
Chief Financial Officer

You know, I think we wanted the ability to re-price as many assets as we can earlier. So that really facilitated the thought of the trade. you know, we were on course to let these mature naturally, but given the modeling and the earn back, and we thought it was a pretty good move on our part to go ahead and just recognize this loss and to get their earnings under key to keep R&M stabilized.

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, and the only thing I'll add, Stephen, is when we were, is we timed this right around when the, I guess, right around the last Fed move, and so kind of given where the market was, we just felt like rates were going to continue to stay elevated. So we felt like timing was good. In hindsight, it was. And so it just seemed like a good time to do it. Yeah, the bulk of that was going to mature going into early next year anyway, so it really wasn't too big of a risk for us anyway.

speaker
Steven Scouten
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Okay, got it. That makes sense. And then, obviously, I know you kind of spoke to the fact that it's more interest rate driven, the efficiency ratio, than it is really expense driven. But I'm sure you're not really content with, I think, 60 basis point ROA this quarter. So what are the clearest levers you feel like you can pull to kind of move earnings back to a level you might start to be more comfortable with in the maybe near to medium term?

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, again, it goes back to revenue growth. As Ron had said, and there's always opportunities to refine the expense side, and we're constantly doing that. We've been able to absorb some attrition on the salary side. We're always looking to try to renegotiate contracts, whatever that may be. But I think ours is more revenue growth. I think when you look at our numbers, go back and look, Historically, I mean, it's net interest income. I mean, we were a little heavier depending on margin, you know, and the squeeze that we've had in the net interest income line over the last little bit. It's really what's impacted those metrics in that ROA. As we've discussed, I think the biggest thing for us is just growing that line back. And that just comes, you know, we've got some great sales teams out there. You know, growth has been solid. We continue to think that's going to be in the cards for us. So, you know, I think with resets on the asset yields plus growth, I think you'll see that net income number continue to drive back up, and we'll get that ROA back to where it was just a few quarters ago.

speaker
Steven Scouten
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Got it. Makes sense. And then maybe along that growth front, I guess it's been maybe right about two years since you guys brought on a number of teams back in 21. I'm just kind of wondering, as you look back on those teams now, maybe some of those regions, Gulf Coast maybe in particular, how are you seeing them continue to contribute to the overall growth of the franchise?

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

I'll tell you, they've been great contributors to the growth of the franchise. Really, when you look at all those teams that we added to the bank just a couple of years ago, and I think, again, kind of going back to a little bit of our inefficiency today, I think that's a piece of it, too. That was a big bite for us. And so to add basically six new markets in the course of a six-month period to We were able to get all those folks ramped up. All those markets are incrementally profitable now, but some of that growth was delayed with a little bit higher rate move. We couldn't move as many balances, but we've been able to organically grow some great balances really in all of those markets, and all of those teams have been just outstanding contributors to our company as well as a lot of our legacy markets. As I said in my comments, I love War Position. We've got some great salespeople. We're out grinding every day and continuing to grow this thing. So it's been good. The rate increase has delayed a little bit of that profitability that we had expected, but it's there, and we've got it in sight.

speaker
Steven Scouten
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Got it. Yeah, that's really helpful, Color Billing. Thank you so much, guys. Appreciate the time.

speaker
Seb
Operator

Our next question is from Will Jones at KBW. Please go ahead.

speaker
Will Jones
Analyst, KBW

Hey, great. Good morning, guys. Morning, Will. I was a little surprised to hear that the revenue outlook is really kind of unchanged, staying in that $38 million to $39 million range. Over the next few quarters, it just feels like we've talked a lot about the asset repricing opportunity you have coming up, that the NIM is looking to at least maybe hold stable here and maybe steadily grind higher through 2024. I'm just curious. That would have made me react and think that revenues might gain some positive momentum going into next year. I'm just curious if you can help me connect the dots and maybe what's driving that more muted revenue forecast.

speaker
Ron Goczynski
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I'll take this first, and Russ could chime in. This is Ron. For the most part, the mutinous is coming from our deposit betas. You know, we've modeled not to be as fast a move upward, but, you know, from what we're experiencing, like I said, we're three basis, 3% higher on our beta as what we're looking at. So I think it's truly a function of our deposit costs escalating.

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, and that, Will, and I don't know how you say, I guess your comment about a few quarters. I don't think, I think we're just dealing with a couple of quarters here where we think this thing kind of stay, we kind of grind here a little bit because you think about, you know, going to have a little more deposit pressure probably this quarter. We can offset that as we talked about with the asset yield reset with some growth. So it'll stabilize. First quarter is always going to be typically a little bit softer just with fewer days. So I think these next couple of quarters is where we see kind of that grind. It picks back up pretty – we see it picking back up pretty nicely from there.

speaker
Will Jones
Analyst, KBW

Okay, that's too real. I know last quarter we kind of talked about maybe deposit betas peaking in the 38% to 40% range, but if we just – forecast the 3% higher that we were talking about here, maybe deposit betas end in the 45% realm? Is that the right way to think about it?

speaker
Ron Goczynski
Chief Financial Officer

I think we're looking at, yeah, I would say low to mid-40s, probably max mid-40s at this point, but we've been probably wrong on our deposit betas in the past, but I know they'll escalate slightly, but our asset repricing will minimize or mute some of those effects going forward. You know, this quarter is our first quarter that we're looking at for Q4, where our growth in interest income is projected to outpace the growth in deposit expense. That's the first time we've seen that quarter over quarter. And it's all predicated on what the Fed does going forward.

speaker
Will Jones
Analyst, KBW

Yeah, I understood that. That's very helpful. Thank you for that. And then just switching over to credit, I mean, it still remains just remarkably clean. The provision really has been fairly low here for the past handful of quarters, and you guys feel pretty comfortable with the reserve at 1% level. Is the messaging on the provision that it'll just be kind of steady as she goes until maybe credit turns or drops? you know, or loan growth picks up, or what would be the messaging on the go-forward provision?

speaker
Rhett Jordan
Chief Credit Officer

Yeah, I think that's probably the best outlook at this point is kind of a use the term steady as she goes. I think that's a pretty good depiction. I mean, as we said, you know, with the seasonal model, the different factors that impact it, you know, can move it slightly from period to period. But, you know, as Billy said, you know, that That single-digit loan growth profile, we don't really see any considerable credit weakness in the near term, so I think that's a good outlook.

speaker
Will Jones
Analyst, KBW

Okay, great. And then lastly for me, there was a bit of excitement earlier in this year on bank M&A, and we're still hearing chatter that conversations are fairly active, and we might just be right on the cusp of seeing any kind of real-deal activity materialize, but Could you just give us a refresher on where you stand on M&A, maybe from the perspective of both upstream and downstream partners?

speaker
Miller-Wellborn
Chairman

Well, the only color we can give is probably the same as we've done the last couple of quarters. Yes, there seem to be a lot of conversations out there, and you see a couple of deals getting announced along the way, a couple of smaller deals and maybe one or two bigger MOEs. But I don't know until you see, until you get some clarity on, credit and what that looks like and a little bit of Fed clarity. I don't know that you'll get any real escalation, but yes, we're continuing conversations upstream and downstream. We love those relationships, and Billy and I and the rest of the team enjoy those meetings, so that's really about all I can say.

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

I'll add, Miller. M&A, as Miller alluded to, with valuations with the industry suppressed, it makes it a little more challenging to uh, on the acquisition front. But I, I think to your point, I think a lot of, a lot of banks are sitting down and looking at kind of strategically, what are their options and where do they want to go? And, um, you know, I, I, I feel very good about us and our environment, uh, in a, in a standalone, but, but also obviously we're going to look, um, you know, um, you know, advantageously at, at opportunities. And so, uh, if we see something that fits, we'll continue to explore it. But, uh, but really like kind of where we're positioned and kind of what our optionality is sitting on today.

speaker
Miller-Wellborn
Chairman

We love letting Nate run these models. He's a model geek. It's really, Will, just getting back to shareholder focus, and I think we are totally focused on the shareholder and what makes the most sense for them and love focusing on that.

speaker
Will Jones
Analyst, KBW

Yeah, that makes sense. That's helpful. Thanks for the questions, Gus. Thanks, Will. Thank you.

speaker
Seb
Operator

Our next question comes from Kevin Fitzsimmons at D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

speaker
Kevin Fitzsimmons
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Hey, good morning, guys. Just wanted to follow up on the margin. So, you know, at a high level, it sounds like what you're saying is it's kind of to use your words, it's going to continue to be a bit of a grind next few quarters, but stabilizing, and the course is stabilizing. And the main headwinds had been the cost of deposits going higher and the DDA remix. And I believe, Ron, you might have said at the beginning of your comments, you alluded to those slowing, and you gave some number for September. Can you kind of go back to like what, what gives you confidence? Those headwinds are slowing and, and anything you can give us like coming out of the quarter on that front. Thanks.

speaker
Ron Goczynski
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. I think we've, we saw, as I said, escalated Q3 September, we're starting to see pretty much conversationally and, and balance wise, a lot, a lot less repricing going on. And again, we're modeling where our deposit beta has slowed down as we go. We're seeing less of a, you know, we had a pretty good noninterest-bearing mix shift happen. We think that's stabilized. You know, I think Q2 had excessive funds in there, so that assisted with it. I think going forward, we think we can maintain our noninterest-bearing balances. I think we'll see it creep a little bit, but again, this trade and our investments would offset some of the noise and just a lot less chatter on the deposit side at this point of time. I mean, really, it's as simple as that of what we're seeing and hearing in our numbers for the beginning of October.

speaker
Kevin Fitzsimmons
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Got it. And Billy, just, you know, you say you continue to be bullish on loan growth. Maybe just if you can give us a flavor for how the customers and your local economies are hanging in and what that sentiment is like. I mean, some banks are talking about really limiting loan growth and just focus on fortress balance sheet and only dealing with existing customers, not looking for new customers until we get more clarity on the economy. And I know the Southeast has definitely got tailwinds. Other parts of the country don't. But I'm just curious where how you're looking at that, whether you're feeling incrementally better or more of the same just over the last three months. Thanks. Yeah.

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. You know, Kevin, I mean, I still feel pretty good. And I still think, again, as I said, a fairly bullish outlook on both the economy and loan growth. Obviously, you know, there are headwinds out there. The rate increases have increased. We'll continue to have some impacts. But for us, when we look to onboard new clients, a lot of these, again, a lot of these go back to the ones where we talked about a lot of these newer team members that we've added over the course of the last couple of years. So we're onboarding clients that are not new to business. They've been around for years. Our team members have banked them in some instances for decades. And so, yeah, I think the long tenure track record that we have, that our team members have with a lot of these clients, give us some confidence to go in and continue to add. I think that's kind of where the cautiously optimistic terms. Obviously, it is. It's a challenging environment, but I like where we're positioned today. The clients that we're continuing to add, we feel really good about. So we want to keep our foot on the gas pedal to that extent. It's not on the floorboard, but it's halfway down. And we feel pretty good about our ability to keep doing that.

speaker
Kevin Fitzsimmons
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Okay, great. And one last question. I know maybe this quarter with the securities loss, it might not have been – priority number one to do, but with your current capital levels and with your outlook you've outlined and the stock trading where it is, would you guys entertain stepping into buybacks or do you want to get those capital ratios higher before you would do that?

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

Thanks. It's definitely an option depending on share price, but as you alluded to in the prior comment, Kevin, we're We're going to continue to watch the markets, make sure that the balance sheet stays where we expect it to stay. We've got some powder, not a ton, in those capital numbers. So I think we'll watch that. Obviously, we can if we feel like we need to. If stock price gets to a point that we feel like that's the right move, we'll do it. But I think it's more of a balance today, kind of watching growth aspects and what's going on with the economy today. in conjunction with that.

speaker
Kevin Fitzsimmons
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Okay, great. Thank you.

speaker
Miller-Wellborn
Chairman

Thanks, Kevin.

speaker
Seb
Operator

Our next question comes from Steve Moss at Raymond James. Please go ahead.

speaker
Steve Moss
Analyst, Raymond James

Good morning, guys. Maybe just on deposit costs here, I apologize if I missed it, but do you have, morning, do you guys have what it was for the month of September?

speaker
Ron Goczynski
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, new deposit production was in a 360 range.

speaker
Kevin Fitzsimmons
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

New production.

speaker
Ron Goczynski
Chief Financial Officer

New deposit production. Is that what you're looking for? You're looking for what the deposit costs were?

speaker
Nate Stroll
Investor Relations

Yes, deposit costs were for the month of September.

speaker
Ron Goczynski
Chief Financial Officer

Our total deposit costs for the month of September was 2.28%. Okay. For the portfolio.

speaker
Steve Moss
Analyst, Raymond James

Great. And then in terms of just on the, you know, following up on the loan pipeline here, just kind of curious, you know, is the mix starting to shift towards more CNI and less CRE here going forward, just given the absolute move in rates? And just, you know, wondering also maybe does, you know, the construction portfolio continue to go lower here, just given where we are with rates?

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, and I'm going to let Rhett take that first, Stephen, then I'll add some anecdotal colors.

speaker
Rhett Jordan
Chief Credit Officer

Yeah, Stephen, I would say that is indeed the case. You know, we're certainly seeing a bigger pool in our pipeline in the CNI segment, to your point. Construction has begun to, I guess – sneak back in here and there with specific projects, mostly owner-occupied related. But we are beginning to see some borrowers begin to go ahead and pull the trigger on projects that they may have delayed a little while. But CNI has certainly become a much larger component of our pipeline. And I would also say that correlates back to what we've talked about a few times with regard to our Our newer market expansion teams, having come from a much broader C&I portfolio, that's their client base. That's who they're calling on. So that's what's driving a lot of that.

speaker
Miller-Wellborn
Chairman

That was the focus even before rates moved, moved more C&I.

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

But, yeah, Rhett hit it, Stephen. I think it is. We'll see that. We'll continue to look at CRE opportunities. We're seeing a few that we like, that we feel really good about the sponsors and guaranteed positions. So we'll continue to look at those. But yeah, the focus is definitely a little bit more C&I based.

speaker
Steve Moss
Analyst, Raymond James

And maybe just the other thing in terms of just the moving rates here, especially the last 70 bps in the last month or so. Um, just curious, you know, as loans are coming up for renewal, you know, are you seeing, you know, increasing borrower stress or kind of how are those debt service coverage ratios, uh, looking, um, now that rates have moved even higher?

speaker
Billy Carroll
President & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I, I don't, I'm gonna let Rhett jump in. I don't think we've seen, we've not, we've not seen a lot of stress. Uh, but you want to, you want to dive into that?

speaker
Rhett Jordan
Chief Credit Officer

We've been looking at that, uh, really the entire year, and just kind of forward-looking at upcoming maturities and current information we have on projects and borrowers. And, you know, certainly in some instances with rates moving at the pace they did, the coverages are down from where they were perhaps at the time that it was originated, but nothing to the point that it's causing, you know, significant, you know, challenges for the borrower in being able to generate adequate cash flow to the projects to service the expected repricing. We still feel very good about our portfolio's ability to absorb these rate increases when the repricings occur. We have seen some market moves in the revenue side for some of those projects that's allowing that as well. So we still feel pretty optimistic about the ability for the CRE portfolio to absorb that. Okay.

speaker
Steve Moss
Analyst, Raymond James

Great. Thanks. I appreciate all the color here.

speaker
Miller-Wellborn
Chairman

Thanks, Steve. Thanks, Steve.

speaker
Seb
Operator

The next question comes from Fetty Strickland from Jenny Montgomery Scott. Please go ahead.

speaker
Fetty Strickland
Analyst, Janney Montgomery Scott

Hey, good morning, guys.

speaker
Kevin Fitzsimmons
Analyst, D.A. Davidson

Good morning, Fetty. Hi, Fetty.

speaker
Fetty Strickland
Analyst, Janney Montgomery Scott

Just wanted to go back to the expense guide. Ron, I think you said it was 28.5 to 29 for the fourth quarter. Correct me if I'm wrong there. But as we think into 2024, is there anything that would cause a significant change from that level, or is it just sort of a steady, modest growth rate, given some of Billy's comments on the cost of new hires being more or less offset over time?

speaker
Ron Goczynski
Chief Financial Officer

Exactly that, Teddy. It's... For the most part, it's going to be the normal wage increase cycle. We do have small initiatives along the way, but we're probably looking at normal 5% to 7% increase in that for 2024. Again, we're not done with our 2024 modeling, but that's probably what would be expected. The majority of that's going to be in salaries.

speaker
Fetty Strickland
Analyst, Janney Montgomery Scott

Got it. That makes sense. And then my other question was, what should we expect in terms of the trajectory of overall earning asset growth and earning asset or just asset growth in general, um, just with all these upcoming maturities, both in terms of loans and securities, what I'm trying to get a sense for is whether all these maturities are put back into new loans and securities, or do you potentially continue to pay down, um, you know, some of the borrowings that are still there on the liability side?

speaker
Ron Goczynski
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, Patty, um, Again, depending on our loan growth, we expect it to put it to our loan production. Fortunately, we don't have any borrowings to pay down. So if we wind up in an excessive cash mode, we would either invest it in securities, which is the rates are getting more favorable as we go along, or be more prudent in our deposit pricing as we go forward. We'll have some options to go to do that.

speaker
Fetty Strickland
Analyst, Janney Montgomery Scott

Understood. Thanks for taking my questions, guys.

speaker
Seb
Operator

Thank you. As a final reminder, for any further questions, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad now. We have no further questions on the call, so I will turn back to Miller Wellburn for closing remarks.

speaker
Miller-Wellborn
Chairman

Thanks, Seb, and thanks again to each of you for joining us today. As always, please feel free to reach out to any of us directly if you have any additional questions, and I hope each of you have a great week. Thanks. Goodbye.

speaker
Seb
Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all very much for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

Disclaimer

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