Emeren Group Ltd

hello ladies and gentlemen thank you for standing by for emirates group limited third quarter 2023 earnings conference call please note we are recording today's conference call i will now turn the call over to mr yu jia zhai managing director of blue show group please go ahead mrs zai thanks operator and hello everyone thank you for joining us today to discuss our third quarter 2023 results

We released our shareholder letter after the market closed today, and it's available on our website at ir.mrn.com. We also provided a supplemental presentation that's posted on our IR website that we will reference during our prepared remarks. On the call with me today are Mr. Yumin Liu, Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Ke Chen, Chief Financial Officer. Before we continue, please turn to slide two. Let me remind you that remarks made during this call may include predictions, estimates, and other information that might be considered forward-looking. These forward-looking statements represent MRN Group's current judgment for the future. However, they are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results with different materials. Those risks are described under risk factors and elsewhere in MRN Group's filings with SEC. Please do not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which reflect MRN Group's opinions only as of the date of this call. MN Group is not obligated to update you on any revisions to these formal statements. Also, please note that unless otherwise stated, all figures mentioned during the conference call are in U.S. dollars. With that, let me now turn the call over to Mr. Yimeng Liu. Yimeng?

Thank you, Yujia. Thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. I will start by giving you a big-picture look at how we perform in the third quarter of 2023. Then I'll delve into our project pipeline and our guidance. Following that, CURL will provide a detailed rundown of our financial results for Q3. We closed Q3 with revenue of $13.9 billion, gross margin of 40.8%, and net loss of $9.4 million. Our revenue was below our guidance, mainly due to the timing of our final government approval for our 53 megawatt solar NTP practical volume . expected to receive the approval based on the government official processing timeline before mid-August. Had we received approval within their standard timeline, our revenue would have been near the low end of our guidance range. The good news is that we received government approval yesterday on November 20th, 2023, and we will recognize the revenue in Q4. Our Q3 results were further impacted by several one-time non-cash expenses. First, we recorded a $4.8 million foreign exchange loss as a result of a strong dollar. Second, we recorded $4.5 million one-time expense from impairment and write-off of assets of several pending projects as a result of permitting challenges. In addition, we expensed $1.3 million of development costs related to our pre-tier projects that previously would have been capitalized under our old tiering system. Excluding these items, our bottom-line performance would have been breakeven. Of our 13.9 million revenue for the quarter, we continue to benefit from our IPP assets. Particularly, our UK 50 megawatt Brimstone project and our China 156 megawatt portfolio of rooftop solar assets, which combined generated 9.4 million revenue in the quarter with strong margins. Moreover, in Q3, we successfully completed the grid connection of our first solar storage project in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, China. This project has a capacity of 1.2 megawatt hour, operates behind the meter and is backed by a private local . It has been strategically designed to yield high returns through daily price arbitration, emphasizing our commitment to sustainable and financially responsible energy services. In addition, we have a growing portfolio of projects in the planning and execution phase in China. The pipeline of such 80 megawatt hour is all similar commercial and industrial-sized storage projects, including several under construction. Furthermore, we recently announced a successful sale of a state-of-the-art portfolio comprising five Battery Energy Storage Systems, or BESS, in Italy to Matrix Renewable with a total capacity of 410 megawatts. Our total storage project portfolio with Matrix now has a cumulative capacity of 3.81 hours. This portfolio is statistically located in the Italian Southern region of Apulia, significantly enhancing the regional energy infrastructure. We expect the project to achieve the ready-to-build status by late 2024. Since the announcement, we have been approached by several top-tier renewable energy investment funds who are interested in partnering with us on our portfolio-based projects. For North America, in Q3, our team continued focus on our strategic goal of solar and storage pipelines by acquiring new project sites and advancing the development of the existing project pipeline. We have grown our one-stage storage pipeline significantly since last quarter to 3.8 gigawatt hour, which will contribute to our overall success. This solar storage projects are major milestones for us and represent a defining chapter in our journey towards becoming a leading global renewable energy company and a storage powerhouse. As part of our strategic plan, we plan to further expand our storage portfolio and our light IPP strategy Furthermore, we remain steadfast in our commitment to executing our storage business strategies, solidifying our dedication to sustainable and innovative energy solutions. During the quarter, we also grow our advanced solar project pipeline. At end of 2023, we anticipate an advanced solar project pipeline of at least 3.5 gigawatts, of which we anticipate monetizing approximately 400 to 500 megawatts of projects in 2024 and beyond. By the end of Q3, our advanced solar project pipeline has increased to over 10 gigawatt hours. For the full year 2023, We now anticipate revenue to be in the range of 110 to 130 million due to project timing. We expect net income to be between 3 to 4 million. This gross margin of approximately 25 to 28%. We expect our Q4 revenue to be between 50 to 53 million, gross margin to be in the range of 21 to 25%, and net income to be in the range of 4 to 5 million. Let me turn the call over to our CFO, Claude Chen, to discuss on financial performance.

Claude.

Thank you, Yiming, and thanks, everyone, for joining us on the call today.

I will now go over our financial results for the third quarter. Our revenue of 13.9 million decreased 42% year-over-year from Q3 2022, and 59% sequentially from Q2 2023. The lower-than-guided revenue was primarily due to extended permit approval process for 53 megawatt NTP power in Hungary, which was elaborated by Rubin earlier. Those profit was 5.7 million compared to 12.7 million in Q2 2023 and 4.5 million in Q3 2022. Those margin was 40.8% above the high end of our guidance, record the gross margin of 37.4% in Q2 2023 and 18.9% in Q3 2022. Operating expenses were $9.6 million up from $7.6 million in Q2 2023 and up from $3.5 million in Q3 2022. The year-over-year increase primarily from 4.5 million of one-time expense from impairment and write-off assets of several pending projects as a result of permitting challenges. In addition, we spent 1.3 million of development costs related to our pre-tier project that previously we would have been capitalized under our old tiering system. Let's not attribute to Emerald Group Limited common shareholder was 9.4 million, compared to lead income of 8.3 million in Q2 2023, and lead loss of 1.1 million in Q3 2022. Diluted lead loss attributed to Emerald Group Limited common shareholder per American depository shares, or ADS, was 17 cents, compared to diluted lead income of 14 cents in Q2 2023, and dilute the loss of two steps in Q3 2022. Turning to our cash flow statement, cash using operating activity was 4.6 million, cash provided by investing activity was 10.1 million, and the cash using financing activity was 6.7 million. In terms of cash position, cash and cash equivalent at the end of Q3 2023, or 59.2 million compared to 6.5 million in Q2 2023. That asset value or NAV is approximately 5.77 per ADS. Our debt to asset ratio at the end of Q3 2023 was about 9.9% compared to 10.1% in Q2 2023. Furthermore, during the third quarter, we purchased approximately 4 million ADS and plan to continue to execute on the Share Buy Back program, which has approximately 11 million remaining in authorization. With that, we would like to open up the call for any questions. Operator, please go ahead.

Thank you. We will now conduct the Q&A session. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please stand by as we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Philip Shin from Roth MKM.

Based on the impairment, you had $4.5 million of a one-time expense due to permitting challenges. Can you quantify the megawatts or gigawatts impacted? And also talk us through which continent was that driven by? More U.S. or Europe? And then also on a go-forward basis, Do you think there could be more impairments as, you know, we look into Q4 and through 2024? Thanks.

Again, for the impairment, majority of those from U.S. And the right of impairment, about 200 megawatts, the utility projects.

And at this point, we don't expect any more write-offs in Q4.

Okay, thanks. What about 24? Do you think there is greater risk of permitting challenges in 24? And what do you attribute these challenges to? Like what were the circumstances that caused these permits to become impaired? Thanks.

I think in general, we look very positive in 24. At this time, not only internally, we tightened up the tier system. That is why we did a write-off and also the review in good quality of our whole pipeline. But also, we do expect the tailwind from the policy front and from the execution by the team will be strengthened in 2024. across the board in both US, Europe, and even China.

Okay. Got it. Thanks. Is there any way you can give us a little bit of color on what to expect for Q1 and Q2 of next year? I know you haven't provided any official guidance, Just for a qualitative standpoint, you know, on a year-to-year basis, I got to think Q1-24 is meaningfully higher. Do you think it's, do we stay at, is there some seasonality in Q1 so it's a little bit lower, but then Q2 kind of bumps back up? How should we think about the cadence for 2024? Thanks.

Yeah, we have not given any 2024 guidance, but we believe Q1 2024 will very strong because of timing of closing this project being pushed out in the first quarter. So, at this moment, we're positive about, again, Q1. Let me add a note on this one. Normally, Q1 is a slow quarter in the whole four quarters of the year, but as we are pushing conservatively, although we are still working on those closings now, but we expect at least three closings will be pushed from Q4 this year to Q1 next year. That is why instead of a slow quarter in Q1, we expect a very strong quarter in Q1.

Great. Okay. And then, you know, if you were to look at some of the history, do you think very strong is similar to Q2 or do you think it's not that strong? Q2 of 23.

It will be like Q2, yeah.

Q2 of 23. Okay. Awesome, guys. Shifting to Europe, PPAs there, what's the outlook? Do you expect on a go-forward basis to have a little bit less pricing power, more pricing power? We've seen some pullback, but the price is still relatively elevated. So as we get through 2024, do you think there's risk that pricing power in Europe becomes weaker or stronger? Thanks.

We still see the offtake price remains to be very strong, especially in comparing the same numbers back to three or four years ago. As we know that the capex is going down to the level even more competitive than three, four years ago, while the uptake price is, compared to three, four years ago, even higher. So that gives us a better valuation of our projects. That's why we feel strong and more positive for the performance of 2024.

Great. And as you think about your 2024 volume, I know there's no guidance, but conceptually, think about your view of 2024 today versus your view of 2024 two months ago. Is the view incrementally a little bit worse or incrementally better or about the same?

In general, it will be a lot better. Not only because... And what's driving that? Not only because we will push like three or even four closings from Q4 to Q1 next year, but also we see the speed of execution not only by the team, but also by all level of the governments in Europe and US is picking up.

And Phil, if you look at our pipeline storage, we started monetizing this year.

in 2023, but we will see big increase in 2024.

So that's where our focus is.

Great. Thanks for taking all the questions. I'll pass it on.

Thank you. Thank you, Bill. Next, we have Pavel Marchenov from Raymond James and Associates. Please go ahead.

Yeah, thanks for taking the question. Hello.

I think we lost you. Global financial crisis. I'm curious if you are observing, you know, the same level of savings in your input costs, modules, inverters, batteries. How is that shaping on both sides of the Atlantic?

I think I missed the first part of your question, but I understand your question really is about how the CapEx cut or decrease of the CapEx will impact our operation. Is that the case?

Yeah, exactly right. We're thinking about the declines in equipment costs.

Okay. And we do have noticed that the the capex is going down to the level about three, four years ago, or even lower. Talking about multiple price, about 20, 30% lower than three years ago. So that absolutely helped from our side as we are taking significantly EPC activities in Poland and Hungary right now as the, based on our original forecast we are looking at a module price at least 20% higher than what we paid today. This is very good. Another one is that we do see on global basis, the oversupply of old supply chain is helping us not only cutting the capex, but also solidify the expectation from the investors. As we see the value of our product pipeline with the core of our company is going up as of the lower capex. Well, as I mentioned earlier, answering Phil's question, not only Europe, but also US, we see the uptake power price is higher even than three, four years ago. That give us the confidence that our valuation of the portfolio is not only there, but also is going up. The key now is for us, not only the management and the whole team of Ameren, is to execute and continue our development activities across the board. Paolo, I just want to add, we are very strong in Poland and Hungary market. If you look at the merchant price of those two countries today, they are still over 100 Euro per megawatt hour. So it's a very favorable for us.

to project development in both countries. That's helpful.

Let me also ask about your IPP activities. Over the past year, you've kind of clearly diversified your IPP footprint away from China, $9 million quarterly revenue in both of the past two quarters. Should we look at that as a steady state for 2024, or will you continue to add assets into your IPP asset base?

Yes. Our IPP strategy, although we call that light IPP strategy, literally allow us to gain this stable level of cash flow from our IPP projects across the board close to about 240 megawatts. And on top of it, if you look at the revenue or the profit from our assets, I will say our IPP only stands for about 30 to 40% of the total. while our NTP and our RTP project sale represent a major portion of our revenue expectation. That's another 40-some percent. And one exciting part of the company really goes to storage, which we believe, starting 2024, our revenue and income, conservatively, 15 to 20 percent will come from storage. and that one will continue to grow significantly. Hopefully, it can be doubled in 25 or continue going up in the following years.

Got it. Electricity prices have obviously come down substantially in Europe since the PPAs that you were signing 12 months ago. If you were to sign incremental PPAs in places like, you know, Poland or Germany over the next several months, would those be attractive economics from a multi-year standpoint?

It is a balanced act that the, from financing perspective, we like to sign up long-term PPAs, but long-term PPA price is not very attractive to us at this time. Short-term PPA price, one to two-year PPA price, is still pretty high. As Curtis mentioned, that across the board in Europe, we see around 100 euro per megawatt hours, okay? That is a very attractive price, which is about 20 to 30% higher compared to three to four years ago. And if we want to sign up in the countries, as you mentioned, or in the countries we are active pursuing projects or IPP assets, I'm looking at higher than $100 per megawatt hours. That is what I'm talking about as high as 120, 130, if I want to sign one to two year contract. But at this time, we don't have any concern on that front, as we are combining our operating profile from not only the NTP RTP sale, but also our light IPP strategy. So going forward, we'll combine a shorter-term IPP PPA strategy combined with an expectation of a long-term in terms of helping on the financing side. Pablo, just a reminder, our Brownstone project in the UK, we have signed four years PPA over a 150-pound PPA price.

So at this point, we don't need to be looking for any short-term PPA right now.

All right. Thanks very much.

Thank you, Pablo. Thank you. Our next question comes from Donovan Schaffer from Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I first want to ask about, you know, the sale of the five battery storage projects to Matrix this year or this quarter. Since in the release and the letter to Cheryl just today, you talk about how, you know, the RTB status of these projects has not, it's not been achieved and it's not expected until late 2024. So, you know, it's not NTP, not RTB, like at the time of the sale, but a point of sale much before that. So I was just kind of wondering what kind of pricing do you get when it's a sale this early in the process? You know, I think we've talked about 10 to 20 cents at RTB. So if you're selling now, is this five cents a watt, something less than that? Just trying to get my understanding here.

Hello, Donovan. I could not really release the number for the sale, but it is in the structure of typical so-called development service agreement. And we have the contract with Matrix. We are onboarding up to 1.5 gigawatt, not gigawatt hours, all projects within next, I would say, 12 to 18 months. And we have onboarded almost half of that portfolio. And that is the two announcement as we talk about cumulative of what, 3.8 gigawatt hours, okay? We are continuing developing those projects all the way based on the milestones achieving the final RTP status by late 2024. While in the process for the next 12 months or so, we will be expecting milestone payments with the progress of the development of the projects.

Okay, that's helpful.

And then so on the same, following along the same thread, You talked about being approached by other top-tier renewable energy investment funds about doing something similar on more BESS projects. Is your expectation that anything there is some of the interest here coming from this unique structure doing development as a service, and so agreements with them would likely be in a similar type of an arrangement, or is this more just a unique case with Matrix? And some of the other ones from Dameron Legacy.

It's different. Definitely, we are considering the similar type of matrix structure. That's a DSA structure. And as we do have a big storage portfolio, as you see, by the end of Q3, we already accumulated over 10 gigawatt hours of advanced storage portfolios. and we have projects in all the major markets in Europe and U.S. and China. And we do want to develop partnerships, including the DSA Taipao partnership, or even possibly joint venture Taipao partnership with some major players in the market. And this is being worked out. We hope we can present you guys some good news in the next two, three months.

Okay. That's helpful. And then, again, I'm just digging further into this theme of these DSA agreements and what you've done with Matrix. How does that tie into your talking about a goal of monetizing 400 to 500 megawatts per year? I mean, is the 400 to 500 megawatt goal starting in 2024, is that just in reference to solar project capacity? Or does this – does it include projects like these? And in that case, you know, then do you include it on kind of a megawatt basis for 2023? Or does it not get included until 2024 because you're getting this DSA revenue? Just trying to think of how to tie – how these types of arrangements are tied together with the 400 to 500 megawatt goal per year?

Okay, it's a very good question. In fact, that our 400 to 500 megawatts goal or monetizing 400 to 500 megawatts does not include any storage. All the DSA, no matter in megawatt or megawatt hour counting, is not in this 400 to 500 megawatts counting.

as okay and then and then go ahead and are the four to five hundred megawatts is that strictly project sales or will there be cases where you're kind of counting megawatts but but it's including you're sort of doing epc services or or is this all sort of is it more cod more ntp because of course that can have a very big impact

4 to 500 megawatts is mostly talking about our solar projects. Those are either the NTP slash RTP sale or COD sale, or we put into our IPP portfolio. Those we so-called monetization. And those 4 to 500 megawatts will be from the 3.5 gigawatt portfolio we are building up. And storage, As I mentioned earlier, starting 2024, even though we want to be conservative on the storage front, it looks like it will contribute a minimum 15% to 20% of the top line, bottom line to the company. But that's not counted in this 400 to 500 megawatts monetization.

OK, that is very helpful.

And then just real quick, I'll ask about for the buybacks. You know, you did $4 million in this quarter. How are you thinking about buybacks going forward? Because, you know, on the one hand, we've talked before, you know, in the past before about how it's nice to have cash on the balance sheet when you're interfacing with, you know, grid companies or utilities and give yourselves that credibility that you're not a company that's you know here today gone tomorrow kind of the healthy balance sheet on the one hand and then of course on the other hand the stock prices is so low right now versus your your tangible book value so you know that could make one argue for more buybacks so i'm just kind of curious if you can give any color of how you guys are thinking about things right now yes uh donovan well we're confident about our

So, we continue doing buyback. So, in Q4, until yesterday, we bought additional 700K shares. So, we're very confident. Secondly, while we're also confident about our cash flow, we're going back up from Q3. We are, again, collecting cash payment in Q4. So, our cash flow should going back up at least double digit number here. And so, we are very confident we can do both. And let me add a couple points on this one, that the starting Q4, not only we are seeking a very strong Q4, even Q1 next year, but also we are looking at a very healthy balance sheet. That is the cash flow, operating cash flow positive will be achieved starting Q4 and going into Q1 next year. That is very, very, we feel very comfortable by presenting those operating cash more positive situation, plus a very healthy balance sheet, which both are collecting cash from old friends in the U.S. and Europe specifically in the next five to six months. And that will enrich our balance sheet all the way up from the current level.

Okay. That is very helpful. Okay, great. I appreciate all the color, you guys.

I'll take the rest of my questions offline.

Thanks, Adelman.

Thank you.

Thank you. Next, we have Amit Dale from HCW. Please go ahead.

Hi, guys. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. So just on this cash topic, guys, how much are you expecting to collect over the next, you know, two quarters in cash?

Go ahead. Again, we are expecting here at least $20 to $40 million minimum.

Okay. All right. Thank you. And then just in relation to the guidance, right, you're saying three closings pushed out to one Q24. Does that amount to roughly the $30 to $40 million that you were previously expecting to come through in Q4-23?

Please repeat your question about the revenue number again.

So the three closings for the fourth quarter that are pushed out to the first quarter of 24, how much in dollars does that amount to? Is it 30 to 40 million that was previously expected, you know, you were going to come in? Yes, you're right.

Yes.

Okay, so nothing has been lost, basically just pushed out?

You're right. We just have to push out this project closing in Q1.

And these are just, I don't know if you already mentioned, these are all U.S. projects or European projects?

Yeah, I would say half-half. Half from U.S., half from Europe.

Thank you.

And then with respect to the storage, you know, pipeline, it looks like it's going to be a big year for you in 2024. I know you're saying 15 to 20% of overall revenues. Is that based on attach rates to the projects you have in the pipeline that you expect to sort of close on or are these separate standalone storage opportunities for you guys?

Those are the standalone independent storage facilities, not including the hybrid solar power storage.

OK, so there is potential upside, I guess, depending on what type of projects you close to that number?

I will say yes. the growth of the independent storage portfolio is significant across the board.

Understood. And just, you know, maybe just a general comment on the industry. I mean, these pushouts and any slowdown that you may be seeing, obviously some of it is related to the interest rate environment. You know, how is the industry sort of, you know, grappling with all of this? And do you think, you know, next year can be a period of, you know, smoother execution for you guys? Just from a macro driver perspective than what you saw in 2023?

I will say that it is the delay of the closing. It's just based on the timing of the projects that the way For example, that in Europe, at least two portfolios will be pushed. The team is still working on it, and maybe luckily we can close by the end of the year, but that would be a happy surprise. But conservatively, it will be closed, and confidently, it will be closed into one next year. And slow execution, I do not think that will be the case, although this year it is happening to almost all sectors. and we do have seen some slower execution from the investors. But we do have seen, as I mentioned earlier, the speed of old friends is picking up. Amit, a large thing, I think you see this more credit given to the U.S. community solar, like the treasury just give an additional 10% ITC in October. So some of this push-out will help us in terms of probability to closing next year.

Okay, so some of this push-out is also related to, you know, just some of the regulatory aspects of, you know, getting more concrete, I guess, going forward.

Exactly. And also admit that I have to say that one of the closings in the U.S., we voluntarily decided to push that one to Q1 because, we decided to change the structure of the sale. Instead of doing NTP sale, we are trying to do a COD sale. But to do COD sale, we have to do the EPC procurement and all everything, as we do want to benefit from the CapEx savings. So anyway, we do have foreseen that the 2024, not only Q1 will be strong, but also the whole year of 2024 will be a good year for the company.

Okay. Thank you, guys. That's all I have.

Thank you. Thank you. This concludes today's Q&A session. Thank you all for participating. We have closed the conference. You may now disconnect.