8/1/2023

speaker
Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the second quarter 2023 Sunoco Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star 1 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I'd now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Lisa Weeks, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Lisa Weeks

Thank you, Operator, and thanks to everyone for joining us today for Sunoco's second quarter 23 earnings call. Joining me this morning are Howard Coker, President and CEO, Rob Dillard, Chief Financial Officer, and Roger Fuller, Chief Operating Officer. Last evening, we issued a news release highlighting our financial performance for the second quarter, and we prepared a presentation that we will reference during this call. The press release and presentation are available online under the Investor Relations section of our website at sunoco.com. As a reminder, during today's call, we will discuss a number of forward-looking statements based on current expectations, estimates, and projections. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Therefore, actual results may differ materially. Please take a moment to review the forward-looking statement on page two of the presentation. Additionally, today's presentation includes the use of non-GAAP financial measures, which management believes provides useful information to investors about the company's financial condition and results of operations. Further information about the company's use of non-GAAP financial measures including definitions as well as reconciliations to gap measures, is available under the Investor Relations section of our website. For today's call, Howard will begin by covering a summary of second quarter 23 performance. Rob will then review our detailed financial results for the quarter, and along with Roger Fuller, we'll discuss our guidance update for the full year 2023. Howard will then provide closing comments, followed by a Q&A session. If you will turn to slide four in our presentation, I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Howard Coker.

speaker
Howard Coker

Thank you, Lisa, and good morning to everyone. I just want to start by acknowledging the strong performance in cash flows of Sunoco against the backdrop of a highly volatile environment. Rob will take you through the details, but what I'll tell you is that market conditions were pretty turbulent in the quarter. the market downshift in demand as the quarter progressed, translating into lower volumes across virtually every area of our business on a global basis. For the second quarter, net sales were $1.7 billion, EBITDA was $275 million, and adjusted earnings per share were $1.38. Most of our businesses were at or above expectations for the quarter, due to commercial and operational excellence and productivity improvements. The noted businesses that were most affected by lower volumes were consumer metal and global industrials, which were impacted by inventory management and destocking programs with our customers. To give you my perspective overall, customers in metal and industrials are buying less, both related to staples and discretionary items. Our customers are searching for price point elasticity which creates demand and inventory management challenges throughout the supply chain. Our customers are faced now with real macro driven changes to consumer buying habits, their own working capital management priorities, and promotional timing, which makes visibility harder in the near term. The downstream impact is reflected in our industrials business, where we provide products serving the broader manufacturing sector and packaging used in household staples, discretionary goods, and construction. Buying is slowing down and lower volumes are the result. However, even though through these turbulent times, we were able to deliver 16% of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter. Our hard work over the past few years on the portfolio, structural simplification, operational improvements, and commercial excellence have enabled more stable profitability than in prior economic slowdowns in our history. While we're not satisfied with these results, our excellent cash flow and EBITDA margins reinforce the durability of our underlying profitability and integrity of our strategy. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Rob for more details on the quarter and our 23 outlook. Rob?

speaker
Lisa

Thanks, Howard. I'll begin on slide six with a review of key financial results for the second quarter. Please note that all results discussed will be adjusted, and all growth metrics will be on a year-over-year basis, unless otherwise stated. The gaps and on-gap BPS reconciliation can be found in the appendix of this presentation, as well as in the press release. As Howard said, the second quarter financial results reflect Sunoco's ability to deliver strong results despite a low-volume environment. We continue to achieve strong results in most businesses in the portfolio, including meaningful improvement in rigid paper containers and all other, and record results in flexibles. A few businesses were below expectations and meaningfully impacted the consolidated results, mainly metal packaging and consumer in industrial North America. Consolidated sales decreased to $1.7 billion. The sales decrease was primarily driven by lower volumes due to inflationary pricing and destocking as well as long-term cost controls associated with our business transformation program. Adjusted earnings per share decreased to $1.38. Non-operating factors impacted EPS negative 7 cents due to higher interest rates on floating rate debt. The sales bridge on slide 7 provides the primary drivers for revenue growth in the quarter. Volume X was negative 190 million, or negative 9.9%, businesses. We continue to have active dialogue with customers and have been able to mitigate low volumes with operational and cost actions in most businesses. Two notable exceptions to this were the disrupted demand in a handful of customers in metal packaging and lower than anticipated demand in industrial North America. The fixed cost structures of these businesses make them more sensitive to volume uncertainty, and this had a meaningful impact on the consolidated results. Acquisitions to investitures also had a minor negative Price was negative 15 million. Our pricing performance continues to reflect strategic pricing efforts associated million in the quarter. Slide 8 has an overview of our segment performance for the quarter. Consumer sales decreased to 924 million. Flexible sales grew mid-single digits, and rigid paper container sales grew low single digits due to strong price and generally resilient volume mix. Sales in metal packaging decreased due to template-based price pass-throughs and inventory management-driven volume declines. Flexibles had record operating profit, and rigid paper containers grew operating profit more than 15%. Consumer operating profit margin decreased to 10.3%. Consumer price cost was negative $20 million. The strong price cost in rigid paper containers and flexibles was offset by the impact of metal price overlap. Excluding metal packaging, the consumer segment would have Improved results from the year we purchased the business when adjusted for metal price overlap. We're ahead of plan on our synergy projects, and we believe we've improved the competitive position of the business as we continue to invest in high-return projects. Turning to industrial. Industrial sales decreased to $585 million. Industrial volumes decreased 15% due to lower demand in all key markets and geographies. This decrease was most acute in North America and Europe, though all regions were impacted. productivity from deleveraging. Notably, this was only $7 million less than the record results in the first quarter of 2023. The industrial segment achieved positive price calls of $21 million as commercial excellence activities continued to align price with the value our products created. Operating profit margin increased to 14.9%, a meaningful improvement from previous cyclical lows. All other sales were flat at $197 million. Moving to slide nine. Our capital allocation framework is aligned with our business strategy to drive value creation for our shareholders. Our priority is to allocate capital to high return with our long-term strategy, balanced against our strategic priority of maintaining strong liquidity and access to capital. We ended the second quarter with over $1 billion in total liquidity. In the second quarter, we generated $251 million of operating cash flow and invested $78 million in capital expenditures. On slide 10, we have our guidance update. Our Q3 EPS guidance is $1.25 to $1.35. We're revising our full year 2023 EPS guidance to $5.10 to $5.40. We're also revising our full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.02 billion to $1.07 billion. We are affirming our full year 2023 operating cash flow guidance to $925 million to $975 million. We anticipate closing the RTS and Westrock paper mill acquisition this year, and this is not in our forecast. Now, Roger will discuss to 2023 output.

speaker
Howard

Thanks, Rob. If you'll please turn to slide 11 for our view of segment performance drivers for the third quarter of 2023. First, with the consumer segment for the third quarter, we expect continued strong performance in our global rigid paper containers from both existing and new products as sustainability-driven initiatives are driving a pipeline of new growth opportunities. And on a positive note, select European customers are launching our all-paper products in European markets this summer, using Sunoco's unique and proprietary technology. In fact, we're expanding capacity for rigid paper containers in Brazil, Malaysia, and Poland to take advantage of globalization of products that use our technology. We also expect continued strong performance in our flexible packaging business. The team is doing just a phenomenal job expanding this business with new and existing customers, and their productivity numbers are very impressive. These drivers will sustain flexible performance into the next quarter. We anticipate metal volumes improving sequentially in the third quarter as we enter pack season, but both food and aerosol can volumes are below our original expectations for the second half due to inventory to stocking that Howard and Rob have already referenced. Even with lower volumes, metal profitability will improve from higher sequential volumes and the reduced impact of metal price overlap. Lastly, we expect seasonally soft volumes in our rigid plastic food business, where volume was also a challenge in the second quarter. Turning to the industrial segment, we expect volume to decline sequentially from the second quarter and remain soft globally through the second half of the year in both our paper and converted products. All geographies are suffering from persistent demand weakness across our core industrial markets for paper, film cores, and textiles. Our customers are citing lower in-market demand and customer destocking as factors for these declines. Protective packaging for consumer white goods was up 5% versus a relatively soft demand in 2022. We're also expanding this paper-based protective packaging into the European market. With lower volumes, productivity improvements remain challenging from deleveraging. We continue to aggressively manage variable expenses as a countermeasure to minimize the impacts from the lower volumes. In all other businesses, we continue to have net stable demand across this collection of business with some positive seasonal impacts to note for vaccine shippers in our thermostate products business. We're managing price costs as resin prices remain stable to declining, so minimal impacts to all other businesses from resin in the third quarter. And finally, as we've discussed before, we'll continue to invest in high return capital in all other businesses for productivity and run these businesses as efficiently as we can. We expect to also see the benefits of these improvements into the next quarter and beyond. So, overall, in the consumer segment in the third quarter, we have seasonal sales improvement, and the all-other segment is expected to continue to perform well. In our industrial segment, we're suffering through a really challenging demand environment. Thanks to our team for their diligence in managing these tough times, as we will see greater benefits in industrial when volumes return, as evidenced by our margin performance in industrial in Q2. And with that, Howard, I give back to you.

speaker
Howard Coker

Thanks for that update. I think Rob and Roger have covered the results on that as well. Before we open up the question, I just want to provide an update on elements of Sunoco that are core to our enterprise strategy, and you can find them on slide 12. First, I continue to receive questions on where we are relative to reshaping the portfolio. I'll just tell you, It is active. We are managing a funnel of accretive acquisitions and plans for non-quarter investors over the next few years. As you know, the deal environment is not great right now, and any future selling or buying of assets or businesses will be based on timing for the best value for our shareholders. On the operating model side, I think our EBITDA results prove we are operating well in choppy waters right now. We have the plans, capabilities, and discipline to operate in this market, and we have durable processes to manage and align costs to opportunities and challenges. Given our expectations for market demand, we have amplified our ongoing discipline and expense management. As Rob highlighted, we're continuing to generate solid cash in the business, and our investment-grade balance sheet is strong. We raised our dividend last quarter, and we will remain focused on the best ways to generate returns for our shareholders. And finally, our commitment to ESG and sustainability initiatives are unwavering and remain wholly aligned to the core values of the companies. I'll just close with this. A hallmark of Sunoco is to serve our customers whenever, wherever, and however they need us to be, and they know that we will be there to help them navigate the future as we have through COVID and a number of other challenges. Actions we have taken over the past three or four years have resulted in a stronger operating model to handle times of uncertainty. We will continue to adapt and evolve to build a better Sunaca now and in the future. And with that, and at this time, we'll be happy to entertain any questions you may have.

speaker
Operator

As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press star 1 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 1 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Gansham Punjabi with Robert W. Baird.

speaker
Robert W. Baird

Hey, guys. Good morning. You know, there's obviously a lot going on with comparisons of the impact of COVID, but you're now around 10% EBIT margins for the consumer segment, which basically matches segment margins from back in 2019. Just curious, Howard, you know, and Roger, is this the right baseline for margins on a go-forward basis?

speaker
Howard Coker

On the consumer side, gotcha.

speaker
Robert W. Baird

Yes, exactly.

speaker
Howard Coker

No, I think if you look at the impact and if you go back to what we've well publicized with the metal issues that we had to absorb really here today and through the first two months of the second quarter really brought those down. So actually we expect to be north of the 10%, well north of the 10% on the go-forward basis once we clear out some of these one-off type events.

speaker
Robert W. Baird

Okay, and then on the industrial side, I mean, you know, I think you mentioned 15% decline in volumes in the segment. You know, obviously, the end markets are weaker, and that's playing a major role in that. I'm just trying to reconcile that versus the operating margins you're delivering in that segment, which are quite a bit higher relative to your historical baseline, and just, you know, your thoughts as it relates to the sustainability of that margin threshold.

speaker
Howard Coker

Yeah, gotcha. Not to go back too far, but talk about the last three or four years, but really the last five or six years, we have really put a lot of capital towards improving the performance of our industrial business on a global basis. I won't talk through all of the projects and opportunities that we've pursued over this period of time, but the one I will is Project Horizon. What I'll say about Horizon is you can say, look, on the surface with volumes where they are, we have not been able to take advantage of the productivity associated with that investment. But on the other hand, it also took us out of the corrugated medium market where we are non-integrated and a very small machine and scope of the rest of the industry, which you think about previous times where we saw similar type slowdowns, be it in COVID or even all the way back to the 08 or 09 time period, we self-helped ourselves by 15% of our North American paper volume is no longer tied to a market that we have absolutely, really at the time, had absolutely no output. outlet for that capacity. So, I'm using that only as a reference to the number of projects that we've undertaken to improve the overall durability of our industrial business.

speaker
Robert W. Baird

Perfect. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Gabe Haidt with Wells Fargo.

speaker
Gabe Haidt

Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. One was something we kind of picked up in the trade publications here in the past week or so, talking about URB imports into the U.S. I don't really recall this something as a topic we've read about maybe in the last 10 years or something like that. So just curious, Howard, do you view this more of a function of kind of local demand patterns that producers are maybe experiencing in their local markets, and then perhaps something maybe that you expect to persist for whatever reason. I'm just curious if you're moving anything around your own system just based maybe on an ability or cost of OCC.

speaker
Howard

Hey, Gabe. This is Roger. Imports of URB into the U.S. is really nothing new. I know it was picked up in the publication, but There have been imports coming in for many years. It did stop during COVID because of the high cost of logistics and transportation. And it's picked back up now as the cost of containers return to a more reasonable level. So that's new. And as far as our system, you know, we're represented in every region. So we really don't move board from region to region simply because we don't need to do that. But when volumes are soft like they are now, seeing board come in from on the East Coast from places like Italy or on the West Coast from Asia is not unusual, and we've dealt with that for many years.

speaker
Gabe Haidt

Okay. And then I guess maybe a question going into 24, I mean, to the extent that we see some of these kind of choppy order patterns or maybe softer than what we'd expect demand, can you talk about just, I guess, your ability, I mean, to variabilize the cost structure or I mean, you guys have been fairly active to drive margins higher here of late on the commercial side. Maybe how demand-dependent some of your productivity is that you talk about getting on an annual basis and if there's anything kind of outside of pattern that you could do as things are soft right now.

speaker
Howard Coker

Yeah, we obviously are taking the necessary right-sizing actions to match the current demand profile. And that's across operations and certainly on the FICS side as well. The encouragement I have about what's going on right now, we've said all along, I'll say all along, the last several periods that we are in a better position today to handle uncertain times as we're in right now. And it just, you know, makes me feel very positive as we will see, hopefully see, demand start to pick back up and the ability to leverage that beyond, you know, the margin profiles that we're looking at right now. I guess pause for a really positive viewpoint as volumes do recover.

speaker
Gabe Haidt

Okay. Thank you. Good luck.

speaker
Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners.

speaker
Mark Weintraub

Thank you. First, can you just kind of update us in your guidance, how much is the metal price overlap? Is it still kind of in the $40 million region, or has that changed?

speaker
Lisa

Hey, Mark. This is Rob. For the quarter, metal price overlap was negative. what we incurred this year plus the year-over-year impact. And in Q1, as you remember, that was $86 million. That's largely completed, if not totally completed, for the year at this point. So the full-year metal price overlap will be $113 million.

speaker
Mark Weintraub

Okay. And so you cut your guidance on EBITDA by $80 million. So could you kind of walk through what the biggest components of that reduction would have reflected?

speaker
Lisa

Yeah. So it was, you know, a 5% to 15% decrease in the EBITDA guide. If you think about that by segment, you know, consumer is going to be down, we're expecting, between 15% and 20%, you know, largely driven by the metal price overlap, which we just discussed. And then also some, you know, relatively negative or meaningfully negative performance in plastic foods, which has been down, you know, due to the perimeter store business, which we're working through right now. Industrial is going to be relatively flat actually year over year, you know, with some positive price costs and volume mix kind of offsetting each other. Other will be up 40 to 50%, and so that should bridge you to the total impact for the year.

speaker
Mark Weintraub

Okay, and just to clarify, in terms of the delta versus your prior expectations, where was that concentrated?

speaker
Lisa

It's really an industrial. You know, I think that when we originally set up the view for the year, we thought that the industrial would only really have these low-volume environments for the first half and that we'd see some moderation in the second half. And what we're seeing really with our customers is people have – they haven't seen it this low for this long. You know, we are at kind of 2009 kind of levels in 2019. And our current view is that it won't recover in 2023.

speaker
Mark Weintraub

Right. And it really is striking because it had fallen quite a bit even in the second half of last year. And are you getting a better sense as to how much of this may have been a function of the volumes having been inflated during the pandemic versus – or sort of where the trend line would be?

speaker
Lisa

No, we don't think that there was inflated volumes at all during COVID. Actually, there was a modest lift down. We think that this is really just complete destocking of that industry and some disruption associated with inventories.

speaker
Mark Weintraub

Okay, super. Just one last quick one, if I could just on RTS, any update? You did say you anticipated it to close By the end of this year, I believe there's that second request. Any color you can give us in terms of how that's progressing?

speaker
Howard Coker

Yeah, Marcus Howard. We expect to be closed late third quarter, early fourth quarter.

speaker
Mark Weintraub

Okay. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Petinari with Citi.

speaker
Anthony Petinari

Good morning. This is Greg on for Anthony. My first question is on the pack season. So we've heard comments from others around Davidson inclement weather, kind of a lackluster harvest season impacting this year. So I'm wondering from your perspective, how would you characterize this year's ag harvest and pack season relative to prior years and then relative to your expectations heading in? And acknowledging the harvest is totally out of your control, is it possible to quantify the impact of weather or adverse harvests on food can vols in the second quarter? And to what degree a poor harvest is factored into your failure guidance?

speaker
Howard Coker

Yeah, I would say if you really got deeper into our metal volumes were pretty similar to what CMI data, the public data represented. But then when you really dig into it, it's down to a couple of discreet customers on the food cam side and on the aerosol side as well. And if you take those out, you are actually flat to up. So, and what we're seeing from a pack season perspective, what we're seeing from one in particular is that things are starting to pick up now and expect that, you know, they should start normalizing as we enter into the third quarter. The other couple related to conscious choices of price over volume, but also we're seeing that the volume is starting to return there as well. Similarly, not PAC related, but on the aerosol side, same as we enter the third quarter, July does not make a quarter, but we are seeing remarkable improvements and a couple of aerosol accounts that brought us down. So broadly speaking, and Rob talked to this, we're extremely pleased with the performance of the business, the integration, the synergies obtained, and frankly, the market reception that we've received. So we view this as this second quarter phenomenon as not being one of any concern at all, and we feel like we are starting to see in July And our customers are telling us that we are making a positive turn at this point in time. So I hope that helps, Greg.

speaker
Anthony Petinari

Thank you, Mr. Coker. Yeah, that's very helpful. I appreciate the caller. And just my second question and last question is around price, I guess, across the entire Sunoco portfolio. So we've seen weaker volumes now for a few quarters, key stocking. I'm wondering historically, how and when does volume weakness translate into customer pushback on pricing? And then if you could segue that into what you're seeing in today's marketplace, that would be really helpful.

speaker
Howard Coker

Yeah, you know, let me talk about the industrial side to start with, you know, which is a bit of a head-scratcher for us. We've always looked at, if you think about what our industrial business, you know, we supply at the beginning of really industrial and consumer supply chains. And historically, what we would have seen is that as the industrial businesses slow, we see an adverse or the opposite happening on the consumer side that's starting to pick up. And this is kind of a unique situation that we're in right now where industrial If you're looking at the data and data alone, you would say that the global economies are in pretty big trouble. But that is not what we're hearing, but it's certainly what we're feeling. So, question mark from our perspective is what is going on here for textiles, films, major markets to be down on a global basis as they are understandably in Europe where they, I think, acknowledged in a recession. We understand it, but we're not, we have not thus far seen the pickup on the consumer side. And I think that relates to your question, Greg, is how many customers, and we are seeing customers saying, hey, look, we're taking price over volume at this point in time, but we're starting to see cracks in that. That we are seeing more promotion activity. Our customers are telling us that we should... Should see some improvements going forward on the consumer side. The industrial side is the real head-scratcher right now. But I will say again that the position that we put ourselves in in times like this allows us to perform extremely well, even though the volumes aren't aren't where we would like them to be. Yeah, this is Roger.

speaker
Howard

I would just add, we have built in some margin compression in industrial in 10 to the third and fourth quarters, primarily due to higher costs. You know, OCC on average up, let's call it $8 to $10 a ton, well-deserved wage increases for our team. So not so much from price, but some continued inflation in the system. So again, we did build in some margin compression as we get to the second half of the year.

speaker
Anthony Petinari

That makes sense. Appreciate the caller.

speaker
Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Cleve Rueckert with UBS.

speaker
Roger

Well, good morning. Thanks for taking our questions. I just have one follow-up on the guidance and, you know, really a couple questions there. But firstly, how did market conditions develop in the second quarter? I mean, you know, it sounds like maybe the plan had some improvement in industrial in the second half built in that didn't materialize. I'm just curious to understand, did market conditions weaken in the second quarter, or was it just those lack of orders that didn't come through, and now you sort of lost some visibility into the second half?

speaker
Howard

Yes, this is Roger. In industrial, yes. As we exited the first quarter, we expected some improvement in volumes in industrial in the second half of the year. What we're hearing from our customers now lead us to believe that's simply not going to happen. So as you look at sequentially, the third quarter is going to be down 4% versus our second quarter volumes. So that's pretty weak. And then continued weakness into the fourth quarter. So frankly, again, we were expecting some of the inventory had worked itself out of the system and we'd see some pickup. Now in our guidance, we're not seeing that in the second half of the year. I think that was the biggest volume change from our previous guidance to where we are today.

speaker
Roger

Okay, so it's sort of a lack of improvement, not necessarily a weakening of market conditions.

speaker
Howard

Correct. Seasonally, Europe is always slower in the third quarter. So again, total industrial is seasonally down about 4% versus the second quarter.

speaker
Roger

Yeah, and then so just in the industrial business, what are your lead times there in that business? And I'm just kind of curious, like how quickly – do you think market conditions could turn around and improve? It looks like the guidance, if I just take the midpoints, Q4 is kind of the low point on EPS. It sounds like that's conservative, but I'm just wondering, is there potential to outperform that, or do you kind of have visibility into the end of the year now? And if you do get the orders that you're looking for, they'll be coming in 2024.

speaker
Howard Coker

Yeah, Clay, you know, we don't normally carry large backlogs, just the nature of our business. But, you know, what I'd say is right now, you know, we're basing our forecast on the best information that we have. You know, one of the best guys that I can look at is what we're hearing and, you know, across the North American economic situation right now being more on a positive trend than most people thought. If that's truly sustainable, you would certainly think that the business that we're in, which is really the point, the tip of the arrow in terms of but manufacturing, industrial, and consumer products that we should be, we should benefit from that. So we don't have that crystal ball in front of us. Our customers can only tell us what they know at this point in time. And so, yes, we are continuing to drag out the current type of demand profile that we're seeing through the end of the year. Could that change? I'm sure about that.

speaker
Roger

Yeah. Yeah, that's very clear. I'll turn it over. Thanks for taking the questions, guys. Appreciate it.

speaker
Operator

As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press star 1-1 on your touchtone telephone. Our next question comes from George Staffos with Bank of America.

speaker
George Staffos

Hi, everyone. Good morning. How are you? Thanks for the details. Can you hear me okay? Yep, George. so happy august um i guess the first question i had if we look at the sequential earnings downtick 3q versus 2q and roger i think you covered this already on some of the other questions is it roughly 50 50 would you say between the inflation and the volume downtick you're seeing in industrial would that be or how would you frame it for us uh from the 2q number to the 3q guide

speaker
Howard

That's close, George. I think that's probably very close.

speaker
George Staffos

Okay. Now, thanks for that. Now, what's interesting is that some of the other companies that buy tubes and cores for winding their products that we cover have started to see some sequential improvement, still down year on year, but seeing improved trends 3Q versus 2Q. And yet what you're relaying here, is industrial that's still pretty weak. So how should we reconcile that? What are we missing in terms of that interpretation? And which end markets look particularly weak sequentially 3Q versus 2Q for industrial?

speaker
Howard

Yeah, right, George. This is Roger. Textiles and film are the weakest as we look forward. We have seen some recovery in the paper side and more on the corrugated side, not so much on printing and writing. But, you know, what we're hearing primarily from Texas and film, really globally, they're seeing little recovery, and I think it goes back to inventory in the system and their customers working through the inventory they have in the system. As Howard said, we hope, you know, their crystal ball is not totally correct, but we're going by what they tell us.

speaker
George Staffos

Okay, good. We appreciate that color there, Roger. Next question, I should say, and then we'll have one other and we'll turn it over. In metal, can you give us what you believe the year-on-year volume impact to EBIT or EBITDA will be versus 2022? We have the The metal overlap, as you called it, over $100 million between 1Q and 2Q. What is the year-on-year impact from volume for metal and consumer EBIT for 23 versus 22?

speaker
Lisa

Hey, George, it'll be between $40 and $60 million this year. And that's volume and the associated productivity with it.

speaker
George Staffos

Okay, and then my last question is, when you sit back and you look at your volumes and that impact relative to what's coming out of CMI, what gives you comfort that you are, and I haven't sort of mapped this, so perhaps this would be exactly the same, but what gives you comfort that you are not losing shares said differently? Could you give us, you know, on a year-to-date basis what your volume was? by key end market in metal this year versus last year. Thank you, guys, and I'll turn it over.

speaker
Howard Coker

Yeah, I'll have that in front of me, George. Well, I'll do it. Food down about 10% aerosols, around 14%. But again, when you dig into that, it relates to... really a couple of customers in both segments of the business and their stories behind, one being more inventory carryover and the other one related to price versus volume decisions that customers are making. Well, again, I'm repeating myself, but that was a second quarter phenomenon that we see pulling out of as we entered the third quarter, more normalized volumes. And in our take in terms of your question about share, we have not lost any share that I'm aware of at all. Certainly nothing material, and the market reception has been extremely positive. as Sunoco has entered this business last year. So we look at this as just a one-off, if you will, for the quarter, and that we're going to be pulling ourselves out of it. Our customers are telling us that's exactly what the case is, and we're, again, excited about the market reception that we've received thus far.

speaker
George Staffos

Thank you, Howard. I'll turn it over and try to get back in queue.

speaker
Howard Coker

Great. Thanks.

speaker
Operator

That concludes today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Lisa Weeks for closing remarks.

speaker
Lisa Weeks

Thank you for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around after the call, or we can follow up with a scheduled call later. We look forward to seeing you on the road through the late summer and fall until we share our third quarter results in early November. Thank you to everyone and have a great day.

speaker
Operator

This concludes today's conference call.

speaker
Lisa Weeks

Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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