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spk08: Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Stone Ridge fourth quarter 2023 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising you your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Kelly Harvey, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
spk07: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. The release and accompanying presentation was filed with the SEC and is posted on our website at stoneridge.com in the investor section under webcasts and presentations. Joining me on today's call are Jim Sizzleman, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Matt Horvath, our Chief Financial Officer. During today's call, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see slide two for a more detailed description of these non-GAAP measures and an appendix in the appendix for a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. In addition, I need to inform you that certain statements today may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements that are not historical in nature and include information concerning our future results or plans. Although we believe that such statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, you should understand that these statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. Additional information about such factors and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ may be found in our 10-K, which will be filed later this week with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the heading Forward-Looking Statements. After Jim and Matt have finished their formal remarks, we will open up the call to questions. And with that, I will hand the call over to Jim.
spk04: Thank you, Kelly, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin on page four. I am extremely proud of our progress in 2023. We delivered on our financial commitments throughout the year driven by an unwavering focus to both execute our long-term strategy and drive continuous operational improvements. Although the supply chain environment continued to improve, the transportation industry continued to face many challenges throughout the year, including the UAW strike, higher interest costs, and the slower than expected penetration rate for electric vehicle platforms. However, by focusing on the execution of our major program launches, continuous improvement in our manufacturing facilities, and the execution of operating expense initiatives to both reduce cost and improve efficiency, we were able to navigate through these challenges. And as a result, we achieved full year sales, operating performance, and adjusted EPS in line with the expectations we set We set forth at the beginning of the year, and we're not done yet. Throughout this process, we've identified multiple areas for further improvement and expect our efforts to continue to drive long-term profitable revenue growth and significant earnings expansion going forward. I will discuss some of our key priorities for 2024 in further detail later in the call. Our fourth quarter adjusted EPS of 12 cents was in line with the expectations we outlined on the third quarter call, and it's a two cent sequential improvement compared to the third quarter. And Matt will provide further detail on the fourth quarter results later in the call. We continue to focus on product platforms that will drive future growth. In 2023, we continue to build momentum with our MIRAI programs with continued strong take rates with the DOF program in Europe, and the launch of our first OEM program in North America with Kenworth. Earlier this week, we announced our next program will be launching with Volvo in Europe mid-year and will be our largest program based on the current expected take rate of approximately 45%. In addition, we will also be launching with Volvo in North America in 2025. Also earlier this month, we announced the extension of our FMCSA exemption for an additional five years, which will allow our North American fleet partners to remove their traditional mirrors on Mirai-equipped vehicles. And finally today, we are announcing retrofit expansions with several new fleets. I'll provide a more extensive Mirai update later in the call. In 2023, we also launched our next-generation tachograph, the Smart 2, that provides incremental capabilities to conform with the most recent EU mobility package standards. As mentioned on previous calls, both the OEM and aftermarket retrofit channels provide significant growth opportunities for StoneRidge over the next several years. And this morning, we are updating our long-term financial targets to include our strong OEM backlog, aftermarket and non-OE growth opportunities, and substantial margin expansion through our five-year plan. Our five-year awarded business backlog of $3.5 billion supports a five-year compound annual growth rate of almost 10% based on our midpoint targets. This results in midpoint targeted revenue of $1.45 billion, targeted midpoint EBITDA margin of 13%, and targeted midpoint EBITDA of $190 million by 2028. Page 5 summarizes our key financial metrics for the full year 2023 compared to the prior year. We started the year with a challenging first quarter due to the lingering effects of the supply chain constraints and material cost headwinds. In response, we focused on driving gross margin improvement and successfully negotiated customer price increases, resulting in adjustments both retroactively and related to sales going forward. In the second half of the year, we navigated through the impact of the UAW strike, which in total reduced sales by approximately $6.4 million, operating income by approximately $2.1 million, and adjusted EPS by approximately 5 cents. Finally, below the line FX and non-cash reductions in equity earnings reduced EPS by an additional 5 cents. Excluding the impact of these items, which are not expected to recur, adjusted EPS would have been above break-even for the full year. Despite these macroeconomic headwinds, we were still able to deliver on our financial commitments through price increases aligned with increased material costs, careful cost control, and the efficient use of engineering resources to ensure our new products launched on time. Overall, we have made significant progress toward our long-term goals in 2023, but we also know there is so much more work that we can and will do to further enhance our performance. We achieved full-year 2023 adjusted sales of $961.2 million, or 14.2% growth compared to the prior year. This growth was driven by improved customer production volumes and StoneRidge-specific growth drivers, including the launch and continued ramp-up of our Mirai OEM programs, the launch of our next-generation tachograph, and despite less vehicle production than we originally expected, the growth of actuation programs on electrified vehicle platforms. Full year adjusted EBITDA margin improved by approximately 150 basis points and $18.3 million versus 2022. And Matt will provide additional detail on our segment level performance later in the call. Now turning to page six. Mirai continued to gain momentum in 2023 as we continued to ramp up production of our previously launched OEM program in Europe with DAF, launched our first North American OEM program with Kenworth, and continued to expand our retrofit and bus applications. Mirai revenue grew by $20 million in 2023 to over $50 million, and it's expected to almost double in 2024 to approximately $100 million. As mentioned earlier on the call, our next Mirai OEM program will be launching with Volvo in Europe mid-year on the Volvo FH Aero. Based on customer communicated volumes, we expect the program to have a take rate of approximately 45%. Volvo has highlighted Mirai on the new FH Aero truck, focusing on the system's ability to improve the aerodynamics of the truck to save energy and reduce carbon footprint, as well as a significantly improved field of view in both good and poor weather conditions. The North American portion of this award is set to launch in early 2025 on Volvo's all-new V&L truck, which marks the North American OEM debut of Mirai's independent wing design, which separates the system from the traditional mirrors. The Volvo Mirai programs in Europe and North America combined are currently estimated at over $60 million of peak annual revenue, making this, again, our largest OEM program to date. These program launches mark yet another step in Storm Ridge's journey to provide industry-leading safety and efficiency technologies. In North America, we are focused on the continued ramp-up of the Kenworth program and the launch of the second nameplate, Peterbilt, which is expected to occur in the middle of the year. We continue to work with our customers and their dealership networks to reach their end customers to drive awareness of the system with the ultimate goal to drive take rate expansion. Overall, we are expecting total Mirai OEM revenue to at least double to approximately $65 million in 2024. Earlier this month, we announced that FMCSA, an agency of the U.S. federal government, granted StoneRidge a five-year extension of our Mirai exemption, which will allow our U.S.-based fleet partners to maximize the safety and fuel economy benefits of the Mirai system by fully removing the traditional mirrors on Mirai-equipped vehicles. These benefits include enhanced real-time visibility from nearly every angle of a commercial truck, which can reduce the frequency and severity of accidents, as well as increase in the fuel savings of approximately 2% to 3% when the traditional mirrors are removed. This fuel savings translates to approximately 5,000 pounds of CO2 reduction annually per vehicle and aligns with the sustainability goals of StoneRidge, our customers, and the fleets. Furthermore, we continue to expand our retrofit applications. Today, we are announcing three additional fleet partnerships with PS Logistics, Stokes Trucking, and Cargo Transporters. These fleets understand the significant safety and fuel economy benefits of Mirai and have committed to equipping all of their long haul trucks with Mirai over time. Together, these three fleets have approximately 4,300 long haul vehicles on the road. In addition, we expect our Mirai bus applications to expand in North America and in Europe in 2024, resulting in approximately $35 million of non-OE Mirai revenue. Our investments in the Mirai platform continues to drive year-over-year growth, strong take-rate expectations, and continued momentum across our end markets and applications. We will continue to invest in the technologies and the adjacent product opportunities to optimize our position in this market and drive technology innovation, improve safety, efficiency, and driver retention for our customers. Turning to page seven, our long-term strategy focused on industry megatrends and drivetrain agnostic technologies continues to drive strong long-term growth prospects. As we have reported in the past, our backlog is the estimated cumulative awarded sales for the next five years using current IHS estimates for production volume assumptions, current foreign currency rates, and current pricing. We have had substantive growth in our commercial vehicle five-year backlog, resulting in year-over-year growth of approximately 5%. In addition, several next-generation OEM commercial vehicle platforms are expected to launch between 2028 and 2030, and as a result, We are expecting incremental award activity for next-generation platforms over the next two years that will impact the back half of the backlog period, including next-generation Mirai systems, driver information systems, and controls and connectivity modules. We expect that these systems will become increasingly more integrated into what would be called the cockpit of the future, and we are preparing for potential programs that could integrate several of our systems. Market dynamics around electric vehicle adoption rates have impacted expectations for current electric vehicle programs and are influencing business award activity on the passenger vehicle side. Most OEMs are now considering a mix of drivetrains that favor more hybrids and internal combustion engines than what was originally expected. Our drivetrain agnostic technology portfolio will permit us to respond effectively to enhance the back half of the backlog for control devices. While we continued to add our medium-term backlog for 2025 through 2027, which grew by approximately 4% relative to last year, our overall backlog remained relatively flat as we continued to pursue new program awards that we expect to impact the outer years. It should also be noted that more of our business is shifting to the aftermarket end markets, which we do not include in the backlog. We have significant opportunity in our aftermarket channels between Mirai retrofit and bus applications, Mirai platform-based products such as the trailer technologies we've discussed previously, and the Smart2 tachograph and our Orlaco branded products as well. Mirai OEM programs are included in backlog at our current customer volume expectations. This considers volumes based on customer expectations either at the time of award or updated based on actual program take rates or expectations. We continue to expect that Mirai take rates on OEM products will improve as the product becomes more widespread and additional OEMs start offering the system on OEM applications. This also represents upside to the existing backlog. We are committed to driving long-term profitable growth and will provide updates on business awards as new platform designs are solidified and business is awarded. Turning to page 8, we remain on track to achieve the 2027 goals we outlined last year at this time, and we are advancing our long-term revenue and EBITDA targets by a year, aligned with our existing backlog, continued opportunities in non-OEM channels, and new business opportunities. Our long-term strategy has resulted in a growth profile that is expected to outperform the market by more than five times over the next five years. From a midpoint of $1 billion expected in 2024, we are anticipating another several years of strong growth driving our long-term revenue target up to a midpoint of $1.45 billion by 2028. As we continue to focus on fixed cost leverage and gross margin improvement through material cost reduction and operational improvements, we expect revenue growth to drive significant EBITDA margin expansion. Based on our 2028 revenue target, we are targeting a midpoint EBITDA margin of 13%. This EBITDA margin expansion will be driven by our expectation of continued contribution margin of 25% to 30%, a favorable mix primarily aligned with growth in our aftermarket products, and continued leverage on our operating cost structure as we scale. Overall, Storm Ridge is well positioned to significantly outpace our weighted average end markets and drive margin expansion and earnings growth through our long-range plan. Turning to page nine, we remain focused as a company to achieve our goals both in 2024 and going forward. One year into the CEO role, I am proud of what we have accomplished here. We have delivered results consistent with what we promised. And as I have stated several times on this call, my focus remains on executing on our long-term strategy to drive sustainable performance and achieve our long-term targets as well. As we look forward to this year, we have a lot to be excited about. Our 2024 revenue is expected to grow by 4%, while our underlying end markets are expected to decline by approximately 5%. To continue this growth, we are focused on leveraging our global footprint to service our global customers and win new business. In control devices, we're focused on business development aligned with industry trends, including growing our core product portfolio aligned with drivetrain agnostic technologies and product applications. In electronics, we're focused on new product development, continued momentum with our existing products and technologies, and continued expansion of our products into more substantial platforms that will drive long-term sustainable growth. We are focused on gross margin expansion through material cost improvement and enterprise-wide operational excellence. Both our product line and program management organizations have been centralized, streamlined, and redesigned to specifically focus on pricing, built-in quality, material cost improvement, and manufacturing efficiency. We are focused on reducing material costs through engineering changes, supply chain strategy, and continued conversations with our customers where the price-to-material relationship still requires attention. As a result of these focused efforts, our midpoint guidance includes 140 basis points of gross margin improvement in 2024. We are also focused on leveraging our global footprint to maximize our capabilities and output. Specifically, we are better utilizing our existing talent by refining our global engineering structure and investing in capabilities and capacity that will allow us to both expand margins and continue the pace of development that has fueled our backlog and forward growth profile. Similarly, we took actions last year to centralize many of our global functions and drive synergies between our business units from both a cost and efficiency perspective. We will continue to evaluate and optimize our organizational structure, and as a result of these actions, we expect 170 basis points of operating margin improvement in 2024 and continued strong growth going forward. We're also focused on efficient cash generation. More specifically, historical supply chain challenges coupled with strong production forecasts have driven inventory levels that are greater than what we have had historically. we're focused on reducing inventory to improve working capital and generate more cash. In some cases, this will take some time as we burn down the extra material we bought when supply chains were more volatile or when production volumes were estimated to be greater than the current views. In other cases, we're working to manage engineering changes and work with our suppliers to more quickly reduce the existing balances. We are targeting an improvement in inventory in 2020, over 2023, that would align us with our historical averages and provide a runway for continued improvement going forward. And finally, we're focused on efficient capital deployment while maintaining an appropriate capital structure. This includes prioritizing our organic investment opportunities with a focus on return on engineering and investing in technology to develop new products for customers that will facilitate future growth. In 2024, we are targeting approximately $40 million of capital focused primarily on supporting organic growth initiatives. Each of our segments plays a critical role in helping us achieve our long-term targets. I am committed to continuing to execute on the long-term plan that StoneRidge has in place and driving our company-wide priorities to achieve our goals. Given our focus, we will execute at a high level, resulting in strong margin expansion on growth that will continue to outpace our underlying end markets. Now turning to page 10, and in summary, we remain focused on implementing our long-term strategy to drive sustainable profitable growth by focusing on technologies that are drivetrain agnostic, winning business in critical growth areas, and expanding on our existing opportunities. As evidenced by our progress made this year, this team is focused on strong execution and careful cost control to continue to drive margin improvement. The actions we took resulted in a successful 2023, and we look forward to continuing that momentum with top-line growth above market and earnings expansion in 2024. Now, with that, I'll turn it over to Matt to discuss our financial results and guidance in more detail.
spk02: Matt. Great. Thank you, Jim. Turning to page 12. As Jim mentioned earlier on the call, we are proud of the progress we made last year. In the fourth quarter, we delivered on our previously provided EPS expectations, driving sequential improvement of two cents from the third quarter to 12 cents in the fourth quarter. Adjusted sales were approximately $229.4 million, a decline of 3.3% relative to the third quarter. This was primarily due to the incremental impact of the UAW strike of approximately $5.5 million in the quarter, as well as the continued softening of demand for electric vehicles relative to prior expectations. Fourth quarter adjusted operating income was $6.2 million, or 2.7% of adjusted sales, a decline of approximately 40 basis points versus the third quarter. This was due in part to the incremental impact of the UAW strike of $2 million over the third quarter, as well as continued costs related to the distressed supplier we discussed during our last call of approximately $1.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $15.6 million, or 6.8%. Starting to page 13. On our third quarter earnings call, we guided fourth quarter adjusted CPS to a range of 10 to 20 cents with an expected revenue midpoint of $238 million. Unfavorable FX movements reduced sales by $7 million, while reduced production volumes resulted in a two-cent headwind relative to our previously provided guidance, primarily due to the slowing growth of electric vehicle platforms. Fourth quarter operating performance resulted in a four-cent headwind during the quarter versus previous expectations. During the fourth quarter, we observed higher manufacturing costs than previously expected, primarily related to elevated warranty and inventory costs on higher than normal inventory balances. This was partially offset by continued run rate material cost improvement, as well as reduced operating expenses primarily driven by engineering reimbursements and the reduction of our annual incentive compensation programs. As we discussed previously, we incurred approximately $1.8 million of costs related to a specific distress supplier, which we expected to be relatively minimal in the fourth quarter. We expected these costs to moderate with improvement in the situation. Unfortunately, we continued to incur incremental costs relative to the third quarter to provide additional support to the supplier. Although we are still incurring some costs related to the situation, the costs are moderating as we navigate the first half of this year. We will pursue routes to recover these incremental costs. However, our priority remains venting and customer disruption. The after-tax net impact of foreign currency versus prior expectations resulted in approximately $0.03 of net benefit in the quarter. The below-the-line favorable impact of foreign currency more than offset the unfavorable FX impact to operating income of approximately $900,000 recognized during the quarter. We remain focused on operational execution and controlling the variables within our control to drive performance. We will continue to respond to externalities as necessary to insulate the company from macroeconomic headwinds and drive overall performance. Page 14 summarizes our key financial metrics specific to control devices. Control devices fourth quarter sales declined by approximately $15 million versus the third quarter due to the UAW strike, as well as the slower rate of penetration for electric vehicles. Fourth quarter operating margin of 1.2% declined by 500 basis points compared to the third quarter. primarily due to reduced fixed cost leverage on decremental sales and incremental costs recognized in the fourth quarter related to the distressed supplier I outlined previously. In total, we estimate that the UAW strike and distressed supplier costs impacted control devices operating margin by approximately $3.6 million, or 440 basis points in the fourth quarter. Excluding the impact of these headwinds, adjusted operating margin was relatively in line with prior quarters despite significantly lower sales. Control devices' full-year sales of $345.3 million were approximately in line with 2022, generating operating income of $13.4 million, or 3.9% of sales. For the full year, we estimate that the UAW strike and distress supplier costs impacted control devices' operating margin by approximately 120 basis points. In addition to relatively flat end-market performance, we expect a continued ramp-up of electric vehicle platforms, however, at a lower pace than previously expected, which will impact some of our recently launched actuation applications. As a result, we expect control devices sales to slightly decline this year relative to last year. That said, we have identified several opportunities to reduce material costs through redesigns or supply chain strategies to help improve gross margin going forward and offset this slight decline in sales. Despite the modest decline in sales that we expect for control devices in 2024, we are expecting a stable margin profile. As discussed on previous calls, we remain focused on drive training agnostic technologies to drive new business awards as the market evolves. We continue to focus on operational excellence and enterprise-wide cost reduction, including material cost reduction plans to drive margin improvement going forward. Page 15 summarizes our key financial metrics specific to electronics. Electronics fourth quarter sales increased by $4.4 million or 3.1% compared to the third quarter. Full-year sales of $593.6 million increased by approximately 25% compared to the prior year. Sales growth was driven primarily by higher customer production volumes, the Mirai launch with Kenworth in North America, the Smart2 Tachograph launch in Europe, and the continued growth of our existing Mirai OEM program in Europe. We expect continued strong sales growth in 2024, driven by Mirai launches with Peterbilt and Volvo in Europe, both mid-year, as Jim discussed earlier on the call. Similarly, we expect significant growth related to the SMART II tachograph as regulatory requirements force adoption both in OEM applications as well as in the retrofit market. Fourth quarter adjusted operating margin of 7.5% expanded by 130 basis points compared to the third quarter, primarily due to lower engineering costs due to the timing of customer reimbursements. This was partially offset by elevated warranty and inventory related costs incurred on higher than normal inventory balances. Full-year operating margin expanded by approximately 400 basis points compared to the prior year, primarily due to contribution on incremental revenue, stabilization in the supply chain, and material cost improvements, including the impact of incremental pricing. This was partially offset by incremental engineering costs related to the launch of new programs. We are proud of the progress we made this year in electronics, led by our strong sales growth and cost improvement actions. Looking forward, we expect continued margin expansion as we focus on improving our manufacturing performance, and focus on quality-driven processes and efficient execution of new program launches, as well as the continued ramp-up of our existing programs. Electronics remains well-positioned to take advantage of significant future growth and margin expansion as a result of a strong product portfolio, a substantial and growing backlog of awarded programs, continued improvement in material costs, and cost structure and organizational optimization. Page 16 summarizes our key financial metrics specific to StoneRidge Brazil. Stoner's Brazil's full-year sales total approximately $57.2 million, an increase of $4.9 million, or 9.5% relative to the prior year. Full-year adjusted operating income increased by approximately 190 basis points relative to the prior year, primarily driven by lower material costs and fixed cost leverage on incremental sales, resulting in an adjusted operating margin of 7%. We expect stable revenue and operating margin in 2024 as we continue to shift our portfolio in Brazil to more closely align with our global growth initiatives and further expand our local OEM programs to support our global customers. Brazil has become a critical engineering center as we continue to expand our global engineering capabilities and capacities. We will continue to utilize our global footprint to cost-effectively support our global business. Turning to page 17. Net debt to trailing 12-month EBITDA, as calculated for compliance purposes, remained relatively flat quarter-to-quarter, resulting in a leverage ratio of approximately 3.1 times. With supply chains mostly normalized, we are focused on improving cash performance and reducing net debt through targeted actions to reduce networking capital, and more specifically, our inventory balance. Over the course of the last couple of years, we have procured materials, when available, during supply chain shortages and committed to future material purchases to ensure material availability forward. Our response to those supply chain challenges, along with planned inventory build to support significant growth and new program launches, has resulted in an inventory balance that is higher than our historical average. We are focused on improving our inventory turns this year to more closely align with our historical averages. Going forward, we see additional opportunities to streamline our operations evolve our supply chain strategies, and continue to design products to enable efficient material procurement and production to drive inventory turns even higher. We are focused on reducing net working capital to improve cash performance, reduce net debt, and related interest expense. Based on our 2024 guidance and networking capital initiatives, we expect a compliance leverage ratio of less than 2.75 times at the end of the first quarter of this year and between two and two and a half times by the end of the year. We are focused on maximizing cash performance to drive value to shareholders. Turning to slide 18, we are establishing guidance for our 2024 financial performance. We are guiding 2024 revenue to a midpoint of $1 billion, an increase of approximately 4% versus 2023. This revenue growth is expected to significantly outperform our weighted average OEM end markets, which are expected to decline by approximately 5%, resulting in 9 percentage points of market outperformance. We expect strong contribution margins on our growth and the ability to take advantage of our existing cost structure to drive operating leverage as we grow. We are guiding gross margin to a midpoint of 22.4%, operating margin to a midpoint of 3%, and EBITDA to a midpoint of $67 million or 6.7% of sales. Our midpoint guidance implies EBITDA margin expansion of 170 basis points and approximately $19 million relative to 2023. Based thereon, and considering an expected tax rate of approximately 33 percent, we are guiding to a midpoint of 35 cents of EPS for the full year. Turning to slide 19, we expect strong growth in 2024, driving midpoint revenue guidance to $1 billion. MirrorEye continues to be a major growth driver. As Jim discussed earlier on the call, we expect $100 million of MirrorEye revenue in 2024, an increase of $46 million versus the prior year, or almost double the total sales. Due to the incremental launches on Peterbilt in North America and Volvo in Europe, both mid-year, we expect incremental Mirai revenue to accelerate in the second half of the year. Another specific growth driver in 2024 is the expected ramp-up of our Smart2TAC graph programs that launched in the third quarter of last year. This next-generation SmartTAC graph will be required to be on vehicles across weights and usage applications over the next several years, with the current market primarily served by StoneRidge and only one other competitor. This will drive both OEM growth as well as aftermarket opportunities as existing vehicles are also subject to the regulations. As a result, we expect Smart2TechGraph to contribute $30 million of incremental revenue in 2024. That said, we expect the adoption of this next-generation device to ramp up in the second half of the year as the adoption deadlines approach. Other factors contributing to our growth in 2024 include the continued growth in our off-highway vision systems with Orlaco-branded products, and OEM programs launching in Brazil as we continue to expand our OEM product offerings in South America. Due to the second half waiting for Mirai and the tachograph ramp-up, as well as improved production forecasts in the second half of the year, we are expecting revenue to be more back-half-weighted than usual. Overall, we expect a first-half-second-half revenue split of approximately 48% to 52%, with a slight ramp-up between the first and second quarter, relatively larger growth between the second and third quarter aligned with our key program launches, and another gradual ramp-up into the fourth quarter. We continue to significantly outpace our underlying end markets, creating a runway for sustainable long-term growth. Page 20 summarizes our expectations for full-year EBITDA relative to 2023. In 2024, we are expecting EBITDA growth of approximately $19 million and EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 170 basis points. We are expecting contribution margins aligned with our historical average of 25% to 30% on approximately $38 million of revenue growth, resulting in over $10 million in EBITDA growth. We are expecting gross margin expansion driven by material cost improvement and enterprise-wide initiatives aimed at improving manufacturing performance, including the reduction of quality-related costs. More specifically, we continue to focus on improving the price-cost relationship of our products through redesign, reengineering, and other supply chain strategies aimed at reducing overall material costs. We are expecting a moderate increase in SG&A, primarily driven by annual inflationary labor increases and the normalization of our annual incentive cost programs back to targeted levels in 2024 after they were reduced in 2023. We expect to continue to invest in the engineering resources that will drive our growth and expect to offset these investments with continued footprint optimization, resulting in approximately flat D&D expense year over year. Aligned with our revenue cadence for the year, we expect EBITDA to be more back-cap weighted. We expect first quarter EBITDA to slightly decline relative to the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily due to the annualization of our targeted incentive compensation programs and timing of engineering reimbursements compounded by slightly lower production in our commercial vehicle and markets. This will result in slightly below break-even first quarter EPS. We expect gross margin improvement in the first quarter to continue into the second quarter. However, we are expecting some incremental engineering spend in the second quarter to ensure an efficient launch of our next two OEM Mirai programs. As our next Mirai programs launch, SMART 2 tachograph adoption accelerates and production increases aligned with current third-party forecasts. We expect significant improvement in EBITDA from the second to third quarter and continued improvement into the fourth quarter. We will continue to leverage our above-market top-line growth targeted gross margin improvements, and an efficient operating cost structure to drive earnings growth. Moving to slide 21. In summary, we expect continued strong revenue growth in 2024, continued focus on operational improvement and material cost reduction, and continued optimization of our cost structure to drive earnings growth for the year. Longer term, Stone Ridge remains well positioned to significantly outpace our underlying markets with strong contribution margins and structural cost leverage, driving a targeted five-year revenue midpoint of $1.45 billion and midpoint EBITDA margin of 13%, resulting in a midpoint target of $190 million of EBITDA by 2028. As always, driving shareholder value is at the forefront of all of Sonar's strategic initiatives. With that, I will open up the call to questions.
spk08: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1-1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. One moment while we compile our Q&A roster. And our first question is going to come from the line of Justin Long with Stevens. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
spk01: Thanks, and good morning. Hey, Justin. Hey, good morning, Justin. Hey, good morning. So maybe to start by just taking a step back, when I think about the 2024 guidance, it implies that you'll be growing EBITDA in excess of 30% in an environment where the weighted average in markets are down about 5%. So can you just speak about your level of visibility and confidence that you have in this 2024 guidance and Let's just say the end markets end up being worse than anticipated. Can you speak to your ability to adjust and flex the business for that?
spk02: Yeah, Justin, really appreciate the question. Our guidance this year is very much aligned with some very specific Stone Ridge drivers. When you think about the launch of the MIRAI programs in mid-year, the continued adoption of SMART II, those things are really not market dependent on any significant improvement in production forecasts. That's really a StoneRidge specific product that will drive a lot of content for us in the back half of the year. So, you know, I feel very confident in our ability to look at that as improvement for the back half. And on the contribution margins that we get on that type of content, you know, you can expect pretty strong EBITDA growth as well to follow that. You know, in addition, you know, the aftermarket products generally have a higher margin than the overall business. So those products in particular can drive, you know, some pretty significant earnings expansion as well. So when you look at the volume side, I feel pretty comfortable that we have enough Stone Ridge-specific drivers that we have a lot of momentum going into the back half of the year with those launches. And I'll let Jim comment on this a little bit too, but when you look at the operational performance and what we really have set as a foundation in 2023, the continued annualization of those initiatives should drive some pretty significant improvement, both starting in the first quarter, but obviously as revenue ramps up, it gets compounded in the second half. So I feel really good about the runway that we're on, which drives improvement in the first half and then follows pretty significant revenue growth in the second half with that improvement. So I feel very confident in our ability to see the year and that kind of split.
spk01: Okay, great. And maybe to follow up on MirrorEye, so the guidance for the full year is $100 million in revenue, but it sounds like that will ramp as we move into the second half. So Is there anything you can share in terms of the annual run rate for MirrorEye revenue as we exit 2024?
spk02: Yeah, so you're going to see continued ramp in 2025, right? We've announced the Volvo program will be launching in North America in 2025, as well as another program that we haven't given a tremendous amount of detail yet on specifically, but we've got two programs in 2025. You'll also get the annualization of the programs that we are launching mid-year this year, both in North America and in Europe with Volvo. So, Mirai will continue to grow significantly, 24 to 25, just based on program launches annualization. And, Justin, I would also argue that, you know, we announced three additional fleets this morning. The more the system becomes available at the OEs, the more the fleets see the system, the more we expect adoption of the OE system and retrofit opportunities as these fleets kind of commit to, you know, full adoption over their fleet. So I think that you'll get not only normal annualization and program launches, but you'll get some increased take rate and retrofit expansion as we continue to address that market, particularly in North America.
spk04: And Matt, we'll also see some benefit from the platform technologies that really are spawned by the base Mirai platform. You know, specifically things like the rear view trailer camera and its connectivity into the Mirai system, along with other technologies that will really grow from that or even more forward into the cockpit of the future that we mentioned this morning. So there's a lot of opportunity here for substantive growth beyond just the base platform of Mirai as well.
spk01: Okay, that's very helpful. And I guess the last one from me would be on the balance sheet and specifically free cash flow. I think you mentioned a couple times in the prepared remarks that there was an opportunity with inventory levels and getting those back to historical averages. But Can you help us kind of understand the order of magnitude in terms of the working capital opportunity in 2024 and what you're assuming for free cash flow generation in the guide?
spk02: Yeah, Justin, it's a great question. It's really an area of focus for us as we come off some of these supply chain challenges the last couple of years and things have started to normalize. Our inventory balances and turns are relatively worse than what they've been historically. Some part of that is planned, obviously, to support the tremendous amount of growth that we expect this year and going forward. But the normalization of supply chain will help us burn down some of that inventory and generate cash out of the working capital that's currently on the balance sheet. So right now we're five turns or so. We can expect that to improve by a turn or two in a relatively shorter term as we burn down existing inventory. That should generate $20 to $30 million of cash. We also expect, because earnings are growing, that we're pretty cash efficient and we should generate cash out of normal base business. So if you look at the implied guidance for the end of the year, it does obviously include some expectations for cash generation.
spk08: Please remain on the line your conference will resume shortly again, ladies and gentlemen, please stay on your line your conference will resume shortly. And speakers, I see you guys reconnected. You guys can continue.
spk04: Sorry, I think we may need to, you know, make sure we know where we were. Did Justin's question complete or was it cut during his question?
spk01: Hi, Jim. Matt, this is Justin. Can you hear me okay? Yeah, Justin, we can hear you. Can you hear us? Okay. Okay.
spk02: great i can hear you uh matt i think i heard your 20 to 30 million of kind of cash generation opportunity from inventory and then it cut off shortly thereafter so i can let you finish that up yeah and sorry for the technical difficulty there we are you know inventory has um has really built uh as we prepare for some of the growth particularly electronics as we look at some of the components that have long lead times there so if we think about a return to historical inventory um averages or We should even have improvement on that going forward. There's a couple of turns opportunity here. Some of that will be shorter term as we address some more specific issues that burned down inventory and particularly with the launch of these programs. But some of that will take some time as we burn down existing balances. So, you know, we should expect, you know, a turn or two of inventory improvement going forward at least. which should generate, like I said, about $20 to $30 million of working capital benefit. And then, like we said, we're pretty capital efficient. So the earnings expansion will also drive cash performance. So if you look at our EBITDA guidance and net debt levels, we do imply some cash generation and the ability to reduce that leverage profile by the end of the year.
spk01: Okay, great. That's all I had. Thank you so much for the time. Thanks, Justin. Thanks, Justin.
spk08: Thank you. And one moment as we move on to our next question. And our next question is going to come from the line of Gary Precipino with Barrington Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
spk12: Hi. Good morning, all. Hi, Gary.
spk03: My questions really revolve around your eye as it's starting to ramp up. You know, you're going from, I think, 54 million of sales to 100 million of sales this year. As these sales ramp up, how much margin incremental margin increase do you get on that product overall, or is it still at a point where because you're winning new programs that you're not getting expansion on the margin in terms of the new sales growth coming in?
spk14: Great question, Gary. I appreciate the question.
spk02: Mirai, as we've talked about for several years, Mirai had a pretty significant investment to ramp up for some of the new technology and development of these programs. And you saw that in the increased D&D over the last several years. Going forward, we have always said that Mirai at quoted take rates is basically at corporate average contribution margins. The benefit there is as the take rates increase, it leverages really well on fixed costs. Right. So, you know, at take rates, you know, if take rates were to significantly improve versus where they are today, you can expect an accretive margin profile on that growth, particularly on the OEM side. Retrofit, you know, just by the nature of the programs, aftermarket margins are generally higher, not just for Mirai, but generally across, you know, our business. So you can expect some some accretive margin on those programs as well. Although those are a little bit less volume as we've talked about. So.
spk03: So given where you are, where you will be this year with 100 million of sales, would that be at the average margins that you guys are describing or forecasting for 2024?
spk13: I think that's fair. That's roughly right.
spk03: Okay. And then a couple of other questions here. Number one, on the control devices side, which is more auto-related, has the situation where, you know, during the pandemic, the OEM order patterns were very erratic, stuff like that. Has all of this really normalized within the system, given the fact that we've had a year or two of good growth in auto production?
spk04: Generally, yes. The chaos in the ordering has stopped. But what has instead come in a bit, Gary, is that, you know, with the I'll say the weaker than expected growth in electric vehicle platforms. I'm sure reading a lot about OEMs, reconsidering how they're going to go forward with various types of drivetrains. Certain OEs had suggested that they were going to be electric only going forward, and many of those folks have reversed that. So now we're going to go back to some hybrids and You know, we may even be investing a bit in some of our existing internal combustion engine technologies, you know, given the likelihood that these technologies will last a little bit longer. So we're seeing a little bit of a change in terms of what's being requested of us in terms of what to quote on. You know, we're well-placed for that, just by the nature of the fact that we've been very careful about how we're focusing on technologies, making sure that the great majority is drivetrain agnostic. So they, from a technology perspective, could be applied to electrics, to hybrids, or to internal combustion engines, depending on the particular application.
spk03: Well, yeah, that's what I'm trying to understand. If you're drivetrain agnostic, obviously EVs are, you know, all the rosy projections are, you know, you can throw them out, throw that baby out with the bathwater. So you're going to get a shift maybe to more hybrids and, you know, growth in ICE. Does it require you to win the business on some of these other programs, or do you just shift what you're doing for the various automakers to their plans for more hybrids versus electrics, more ICE versus where they thought they'd be?
spk04: I think in some cases there will be a need to win the businesses, but I think more often than not, it will be extension of current business we have in the ICE space. They'll be extending... for a longer period of time the types of technologies they're working with today. And there might be some continuous improvement on those technologies or products, but they'll be, for the most part, extensions.
spk10: Okay. Thank you.
spk08: Thank you. And I would now like to hand the conference back to Jim Ziesel for closing remarks.
spk04: Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us for the call today. You know, I know your time is really important, and we do appreciate your willingness to engage us today. You know, we are very proud of our performance in 2023. It's consistent with the commitments we made at the start of the year. We will continue to deliver on our commitments by focusing on our long-term strategy, our broad operational improvements, and excellence in execution. We expect that our performance, along with our unique mix of industry-changing product platforms, will continue to drive strong shareholder value. Thanks again, everyone.
spk08: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Music. So, Thank you. Thank you. Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Stone Ridge fourth quarter 2023 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising you your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Kelly Harvey, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
spk07: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. The release and accompanying presentation was filed with the SEC and is posted on our website at stoneridge.com in the investor section under webcasts and presentations. Joining me on today's call are Jim Sizzleman, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Matt Horvath, our Chief Financial Officer. During today's call, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see slide two for a more detailed description of these non-GAAP measures and in the appendix for a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. In addition, I need to inform you that certain statements today may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements that are not historical in nature and include information concerning our future results or plans. Although we believe that such statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, you should understand that these statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. Additional information about such factors and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ may be found in our 10-K, which will be filed later this week with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the heading Forward-Looking Statements. After Jim and Matt have finished their formal remarks, we will open up the call to questions. And with that, I will hand the call over to Jim.
spk04: Thank you, Kelly, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin on page four. I am extremely proud of our progress in 2023. We delivered on our financial commitments throughout the year driven by an unwavering focus to both execute our long-term strategy and drive continuous operational improvements. Although the supply chain environment continued to improve, the transportation industry continued to face many challenges throughout the year, including the UAW strike, higher interest costs, and the slower than expected penetration rate for electric vehicle platforms. However, by focusing on the execution of our major program launches, continuous improvement in our manufacturing facilities, and the execution of operating expense initiatives to both reduce cost and improve efficiency, we were able to navigate through these challenges. And as a result, we achieved full year sales, operating performance, and adjusted EPS in line with the expectations we set We set forth at the beginning of the year, and we're not done yet. Throughout this process, we've identified multiple areas for further improvement and expect our efforts to continue to drive long-term profitable revenue growth and significant earnings expansion going forward. I will discuss some of our key priorities for 2024 in further detail later in the call. Our fourth quarter adjusted EPS of 12 cents was in line with the expectations we outlined on the third quarter call, and it's a two cent sequential improvement compared to the third quarter. And Matt will provide further detail on the fourth quarter results later in the call. We continue to focus on product platforms that will drive future growth. In 2023, we continue to build momentum with our MIRAI programs with continued strong take rates with the DOF program in Europe, and the launch of our first OEM program in North America with Kenworth. Earlier this week, we announced our next program will be a launching with Volvo in Europe mid-year and will be our largest program based on the current expected take rate of approximately 45%. In addition, we will also be launching with Volvo in North America in 2025. Also earlier this month, we announced the extension of our FMCSA exemption for an additional five years which will allow our North American fleet partners to remove their traditional mirrors on Mirai-equipped vehicles. And finally, today, we are announcing retrofit expansions with several new fleets. I'll provide a more extensive Mirai update later in the call. In 2023, we also launched our next-generation tachograph, the Smart 2, that provides incremental capabilities to conform with the most recent EU mobility package standards. As mentioned on previous calls, both the OEM and aftermarket retrofit channels provide significant growth opportunities for StoneRidge over the next several years. And this morning, we are updating our long-term financial targets to include our strong OEM backlog, aftermarket and non-OE growth opportunities, and substantial margin expansion through our five-year plan. Our five-year awarded business backlog of $3.5 billion supports a five-year compound annual growth rate of almost 10% based on our midpoint targets. This results in midpoint targeted revenue of $1.45 billion, targeted midpoint EBITDA margin of 13%, and targeted midpoint EBITDA of $190 million by 2028. Page 5 summarizes our key financial metrics for the full year 2023 compared to the prior year. We started the year with a challenging first quarter due to the lingering effects of the supply chain constraints and material cost headwinds. In response, we focused on driving gross margin improvement and successfully negotiated customer price increases, resulting in adjustments both retroactively and related to sales going forward. In the second half of the year, we navigated through the impact of the UAW strike, which in total reduced sales by approximately $6.4 million, operating income by approximately $2.1 million, and adjusted EPS by approximately 5 cents. Finally, below the line FX and non-cash reductions in equity earnings reduced EPS by an additional 5 cents. Excluding the impact of these items, which are not expected to recur, adjusted EPS would have been above break-even for the full year. Despite these macroeconomic headwinds, we were still able to deliver on our financial commitments through price increases aligned with increased material costs, careful cost control, and the efficient use of engineering resources to ensure our new products launched on time. Overall, we have made significant progress toward our long-term goals in 2023, But we also know there is so much more work that we can and will do to further enhance our performance. We achieved full-year 2023 adjusted sales of $961.2 million, or 14.2% growth compared to the prior year. This growth was driven by improved customer production volumes and StoneRidge-specific growth drivers, including the launch and continued ramp-up of our Mirai OEM programs, the launch of our next-generation tachograph, and despite less vehicle production than we originally expected, the growth of actuation programs on electrified vehicle platforms. Full year adjusted EBITDA margin improved by approximately 150 basis points and $18.3 million versus 2022. And Matt will provide additional detail on our segment level performance later in the call. Now turning to page six. Mirai continued to gain momentum in 2023 as we continued to ramp up production of our previously launched OEM program in Europe with DAF, launched our first North American OEM program with Kenworth, and continued to expand our retrofit and bus applications. Mirai revenue grew by $20 million in 2023 to over $50 million, and it's expected to almost double in 2024 to approximately $100 million. As mentioned earlier on the call, our next Mirai OEM program will be launching with Volvo in Europe mid-year on the Volvo FH Aero. Based on customer communicated volumes, we expect the program to have a take rate of approximately 45%. Volvo has highlighted Mirai on the new FH Aero truck, focusing on the system's ability to improve the aerodynamics of the truck to save energy and reduce carbon footprint, as well as a significantly improved field of view in both good and poor weather conditions. The North American portion of this award is set to launch in early 2025 on Volvo's all-new V&L truck, which marks the North American OEM debut of Mirai's independent wing design, which separates the system from the traditional mirrors. The Volvo Mirai programs in Europe and North America combined are currently estimated at over $60 million of peak annual revenue, making this, again, our largest OEM program to date. These program launches mark yet another step in Storm Ridge's journey to provide industry-leading safety and efficiency technologies. In North America, we are focused on the continued ramp-up of the Kenworth program and the launch of the second nameplate, Peterbilt, which is expected to occur in the middle of the year. We continue to work with our customers and their dealership networks to reach their end customers to drive awareness of the system with the ultimate goal to drive take rate expansion. Overall, we are expecting total Mirai OEM revenue to at least double to approximately $65 million in 2024. Earlier this month, we announced that FMCSA, an agency of the U.S. federal government, granted Stone Ridge a five-year extension of our Mirai exemption, which will allow our U.S.-based fleet partners to maximize the safety and fuel economy benefits of the Mirai system by fully removing the traditional mirrors on Mirai-equipped vehicles. These benefits include enhanced real-time visibility from nearly every angle of a commercial truck, which can reduce the frequency and severity of accidents, as well as increase in the fuel savings of approximately 2% to 3% when the traditional mirrors are removed. This fuel savings translates to approximately 5,000 pounds of CO2 reduction annually per vehicle and aligns with the sustainability goals of StoneRidge, our customers, and the fleets. Furthermore, we continue to expand our retrofit applications. Today, we are announcing three additional fleet partnerships with PS Logistics, Stokes Trucking, and Cargo Transporters. These fleets understand the significant safety and fuel economy benefits of Mirai and have committed to equipping all of their long-haul trucks with Mirai over time. Together, these three fleets have approximately 4,300 long-haul vehicles on the road. In addition, we expect our Mirai bus applications to expand in North America and in Europe in 2024, resulting in approximately $35 million of non-OE Mirai revenue. Our investments in the Mirai platform continues to drive year-over-year growth, strong take-rate expectations, and continued momentum across our end markets and applications. We will continue to invest in the technologies and the adjacent product opportunities to optimize our position in this market and drive technology innovation, improve safety, efficiency, and driver retention for our customers. Turning to page seven, our long-term strategy focused on industry megatrends and drivetrain agnostic technologies continues to drive strong long-term growth prospects. As we have reported in the past, our backlog is the estimated cumulative awarded sales for the next five years using current IHS estimates for production volume assumptions, current foreign currency rates, and current pricing. We have had substantive growth in our commercial vehicle five-year backlog, resulting in year-over-year growth of approximately 5%. In addition, several next-generation OEM commercial vehicle platforms are expected to launch between 2028 and 2030, and as a result, We are expecting incremental award activity for next-generation platforms over the next two years that will impact the back half of the backlog period, including next-generation Mirai systems, driver information systems, and controls and connectivity modules. We expect that these systems will become increasingly more integrated into what would be called the cockpit of the future, and we are preparing for potential programs that could integrate several of our systems. Market dynamics around electric vehicle adoption rates have impacted expectations for current electric vehicle programs and are influencing business award activity on the passenger vehicle side. Most OEMs are now considering a mix of drivetrains that favor more hybrids and internal combustion engines than what was originally expected. Our drivetrain agnostic technology portfolio will permit us to respond effectively to enhance the back half of the backlog for control devices. While we continued to add our medium-term backlog for 2025 through 2027, which grew by approximately 4% relative to last year, our overall backlog remained relatively flat as we continued to pursue new program awards that we expect to impact the outer years. It should also be noted that more of our business is shifting to the aftermarket end markets, which we do not include in the backlog. We have significant opportunity in our aftermarket channels between Mirai retrofit and bus applications, Mirai platform-based products such as the trailer technologies we've discussed previously, and the Smart2 tachograph and our Orlaco branded products as well. Mirai OEM programs are included in backlog at our current customer volume expectations. This considers volumes based on customer expectations either at the time of award or updated based on actual program take rates or expectations. We continue to expect that Mirai take rates on OEM products will improve as the product becomes more widespread and additional OEMs start offering the system on OEM applications. This also represents upside to the existing backlog. We are committed to driving long-term profitable growth and will provide updates on business awards as new platform designs are solidified and business is awarded. Turning to page 8, we remain on track to achieve the 2027 goals we outlined last year at this time, and we are advancing our long-term revenue and EBITDA targets by a year, aligned with our existing backlog, continued opportunities in non-OEM channels, and new business opportunities. Our long-term strategy has resulted in a growth profile that is expected to outperform the market by more than five times over the next five years. From a midpoint of $1 billion expected in 2024, we are anticipating another several years of strong growth driving our long-term revenue target up to a midpoint of $1.45 billion by 2028. As we continue to focus on fixed cost leverage and gross margin improvement through material cost reduction and operational improvements, we expect revenue growth to drive significant EBITDA margin expansion. Based on our 2028 revenue target, we are targeting a midpoint EBITDA margin of 13%. This EBITDA margin expansion will be driven by our expectation of continued contribution margin of 25% to 30%, a favorable mix primarily aligned with growth in our aftermarket products, and continued leverage on our operating cost structure as we scale. Overall, Storm Ridge is well positioned to significantly outpace our weighted average end markets, and drive margin expansion and earnings growth through our long-range plan. Now turning to page nine. We remain focused as a company to achieve our goals both in 2024 and going forward. One year into the CEO role, I am proud of what we have accomplished here. We have delivered results consistent with what we promised. And as I have stated several times on this call, my focus remains on executing on our long-term strategy to drive sustainable performance and achieve our long-term targets as well. As we look forward to this year, we have a lot to be excited about. Our 2024 revenue is expected to grow by 4%, while our underlying end markets are expected to decline by approximately 5%. To continue this growth, we are focused on leveraging our global footprint to service our global customers and win new business. In control devices, we're focused on business development aligned with industry trends, including growing our core product portfolio aligned with drivetrain agnostic technologies and product applications. In electronics, we're focused on new product development, continued momentum with our existing products and technologies, and continued expansion of our products into more substantial platforms that will drive long-term sustainable growth. We are focused on gross margin expansion through material cost improvement and enterprise-wide operational excellence. Both our product line and program management organizations have been centralized, streamlined, and redesigned to specifically focus on pricing, built-in quality, material cost improvement, and manufacturing efficiency. We are focused on reducing material costs through engineering changes, supply chain strategy, and continued conversations with our customers where the price-to-material relationship still requires attention. As a result of these focused efforts, our midpoint guidance includes 140 basis points of gross margin improvement in 2024. We are also focused on leveraging our global footprint to maximize our capabilities and output. Specifically, we are better utilizing our existing talent by refining our global engineering structure and investing in capabilities and capacity that will allow us to both expand margins and continue the pace of development that has fueled our backlog and forward growth profile. Similarly, we took actions last year to centralize many of our global functions and drive synergies between our business units from both a cost and efficiency perspective. We will continue to evaluate and optimize our organizational structure, and as a result of these actions, we expect 170 basis points of operating margin improvement in 2024 and continued strong growth going forward. We're also focused on efficient cash generation. More specifically, historical supply chain challenges coupled with strong production forecasts have driven inventory levels that are greater than what we have had historically. we're focused on reducing inventory to improve working capital and generate more cash. In some cases, this will take some time as we burn down the extra material we bought when supply chains were more volatile or when production volumes were estimated to be greater than the current views. In other cases, we're working to manage engineering changes and work with our suppliers to more quickly reduce the existing balances. We are targeting an improvement in inventory in 2020, over 2023, that would align us with our historical averages and provide a runway for continued improvement going forward. And finally, we're focused on efficient capital deployment while maintaining an appropriate capital structure. This includes prioritizing our organic investment opportunities with a focus on return on engineering and investing in technology to develop new products for customers that will facilitate future growth. In 2024, we are targeting approximately $40 million of capital focused primarily on supporting organic growth initiatives. Each of our segments plays a critical role in helping us achieve our long-term targets. I am committed to continuing to execute on the long-term plan that StoneRidge has in place and driving our company-wide priorities to achieve our goals. Given our focus, we will execute at a high level, resulting in strong margin expansion on growth that will continue to outpace our underlying end markets. Now turning to page 10, and in summary, we remain focused on implementing our long-term strategy to drive sustainable profitable growth by focusing on technologies that are drivetrain agnostic, winning business in critical growth areas, and expanding on our existing opportunities. As evidenced by our progress made this year, this team is focused on strong execution and careful cost control to continue to drive margin improvement. The actions we took resulted in a successful 2023, and we look forward to continuing that momentum with top-line growth above market and earnings expansion in 2024. Now, with that, I'll turn it over to Matt to discuss our financial results and guidance in more detail.
spk02: Matt. Great. Thank you, Jim. Turning to page 12. As Jim mentioned earlier on the call, we are proud of the progress we made last year. In the fourth quarter, we delivered on our previously provided EPS expectations, driving sequential improvement of two cents from the third quarter to 12 cents in the fourth quarter. Adjusted sales were approximately $229.4 million, a decline of 3.3% relative to the third quarter. This was primarily due to the incremental impact of the UAW strike of approximately $5.5 million in the quarter, as well as the continued softening of demand for electric vehicles relative to prior expectations. Fourth quarter adjusted operating income was $6.2 million, or 2.7% of adjusted sales, a decline of approximately 40 basis points versus the third quarter. This was due in part to the incremental impact of the UAW strike of $2 million over the third quarter, as well as continued costs related to the distressed supplier we discussed during our last call of approximately $1.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $15.6 million, or 6.8%. Turning to page 13. On our third quarter earnings call, we guided fourth quarter adjusted EPS to a range of 10 to 20 cents with an expected revenue midpoint of $238 million. Unfavorable FX movements reduced sales by $7 million, while reduced production volumes resulted in a two cent headwind relative to our previously provided guidance, primarily due to the slowing growth of electric vehicle platforms. Fourth quarter operating performance resulted in a four cent headwind during the quarter versus previous expectations. During the fourth quarter, we observed higher manufacturing costs than previously expected, primarily related to elevated warranty and inventory costs on higher than normal inventory balances. This was partially offset by continued run rate material cost improvement, as well as reduced operating expenses primarily driven by engineering reimbursements and the reduction of our annual incentive compensation programs. As we discussed previously, we incurred approximately $1.8 million of costs related to a specific distress supplier, which we expected to be relatively minimal in the fourth quarter. We expected these costs to moderate with improvement in the situation. Unfortunately, we continued to incur incremental costs relative to the third quarter to provide additional support to the supplier. Although we are still incurring some costs related to the situation, the costs are moderating as we navigate the first half of this year. We will pursue routes to recover these incremental costs. However, our priority remains venting and customer disruption. The after-tax net impact of foreign currency versus prior expectations resulted in approximately $0.03 of net benefit in the quarter. The below-the-line favorable impact of foreign currency more than offset the unfavorable FX impact to operating income of approximately $900,000 recognized during the quarter. We remain focused on operational execution and controlling the variables within our control to drive performance. We will continue to respond to externalities as necessary to insulate the company from macroeconomic headwinds and drive overall performance. Page 14 summarizes our key financial metrics specific to control devices. Control devices fourth quarter sales declined by approximately $15 million versus the third quarter due to the UAW strike, as well as the slower rate of penetration for electric vehicles. Fourth quarter operating margin of 1.2% declined by 500 basis points compared to the third quarter. primarily due to reduced fixed cost leverage on decremental sales and incremental costs recognized in the fourth quarter related to the distressed supplier I outlined previously. In total, we estimate that the UAW strike and distressed supplier costs impacted control devices operating margin by approximately $3.6 million, or 440 basis points in the fourth quarter. Excluding the impact of these headwinds, adjusted operating margin was relatively in line with prior quarters despite significantly lower sales. Control devices' full-year sales of $345.3 million were approximately in line with 2022, generating operating income of $13.4 million, or 3.9% of sales. For the full year, we estimate that the UAW strike and distress supplier costs impacted control devices' operating margin by approximately 120 basis points. In addition to relatively flat end-market performance, we expect a continued ramp-up of electric vehicle platforms, however, at a lower pace than previously expected, which will impact some of our recently launched actuation applications. As a result, we expect control devices sales to slightly decline this year relative to last year. That said, we have identified several opportunities to reduce material costs through redesigns or supply chain strategies to help improve gross margin going forward and offset this slight decline in sales. Despite the modest decline in sales that we expect for control devices in 2024, we are expecting a stable margin profile. As discussed on previous calls, we remain focused on drive training agnostic technologies to drive new business awards as the market evolves. We continue to focus on operational excellence and enterprise-wide cost reduction, including material cost reduction plans to drive margin improvement going forward. Page 15 summarizes our key financial metrics specific to electronics. Electronics fourth quarter sales increased by $4.4 million or 3.1% compared to the third quarter. Full-year sales of $593.6 million increased by approximately 25% compared to the prior year. Sales growth was driven primarily by higher customer production volumes, the Mirai launch with Kenworth in North America, the Smart2 Tachograph launch in Europe, and the continued growth of our existing Mirai OEM program in Europe. We expect continued strong sales growth in 2024, driven by Mirai launches with Peterbilt and Volvo in Europe, both mid-year, as Jim discussed earlier on the call. Similarly, we expect significant growth related to the SMART II tachograph as regulatory requirements force adoption both in OEM applications as well as in the retrofit market. Fourth quarter adjusted operating margin of 7.5% expanded by 130 basis points compared to the third quarter, primarily due to lower engineering costs due to the timing of customer reimbursements. This was partially offset by elevated warranty and inventory-related costs incurred on higher-than-normal inventory balances. Full-year operating margin expanded by approximately 400 basis points compared to the prior year, primarily due to contribution on incremental revenue, stabilization in the supply chain, and material cost improvements, including the impact of incremental pricing. This was partially offset by incremental engineering costs related to the launch of new programs. We are proud of the progress we made this year in electronics, led by our strong sales growth and cost improvement actions. Looking forward, we expect continued margin expansion as we focus on improving our manufacturing performance, and focus on quality-driven processes and efficient execution of new program launches, as well as the continued ramp-up of our existing programs. Electronics remains well-positioned to take advantage of significant future growth and margin expansion as a result of a strong product portfolio, a substantial and growing backlog of awarded programs, continued improvement in material costs, and cost structure and organizational optimization. Page 16 summarizes our key financial metrics specific to StoneRidge Brazil. Stoner's Brazil's full-year sales total approximately $57.2 million, an increase of $4.9 million, or 9.5% relative to the prior year. Full-year adjusted operating income increased by approximately 190 basis points relative to the prior year, primarily driven by lower material costs and fixed cost leverage on incremental sales, resulting in an adjusted operating margin of 7%. We expect stable revenue and operating margin in 2024 as we continue to shift our portfolio in Brazil to more closely align with our global growth initiatives and further expand our local OEM programs to support our global customers. Brazil has become a critical engineering center as we continue to expand our global engineering capabilities and capacities. We will continue to utilize our global footprint to cost-effectively support our global business. Turning to page 17. Net debt to trailing 12-month EBITDA, as calculated for compliance purposes, remained relatively flat quarter-to-quarter, resulting in a leverage ratio of approximately 3.1 times. With supply chains mostly normalized, we are focused on improving cash performance and reducing net debt through targeted actions to reduce networking capital, and more specifically, our inventory balance. Over the course of the last couple of years, we have procured materials, when available, during supply chain shortages and committed to future material purchases to ensure material availability forward. Our response to those supply chain challenges, along with planned inventory build to support significant growth and new program launches, has resulted in an inventory balance that is higher than our historical average. We are focused on improving our inventory turns this year to more closely align with our historical averages. Going forward, we see additional opportunities to streamline our operations evolve our supply chain strategies, and continue to design products to enable efficient material procurement and production to drive inventory turns even higher. We are focused on reducing net working capital to improve cash performance, reduce net debt, and related interest expense. Based on our 2024 guidance and networking capital initiatives, we expect a compliance leverage ratio of less than 2.75 times at the end of the first quarter of this year and between two and two and a half times by the end of the year. We are focused on maximizing cash performance to drive value to shareholders. Turning to slide 18, we are establishing guidance for our 2024 financial performance. We are guiding 2024 revenue to a midpoint of $1 billion, an increase of approximately 4% versus 2023. This revenue growth is expected to significantly outperform our weighted average OEM end markets, which are expected to decline by approximately 5%, resulting in 9 percentage points of market outperformance. We expect strong contribution margins on our growth and the ability to take advantage of our existing cost structure to drive operating leverage as we grow. We are guiding gross margin to a midpoint of 22.4%, operating margin to a midpoint of 3%, and EBITDA to a midpoint of $67 million or 6.7% of sales. Our midpoint guidance implies EBITDA margin expansion of 170 basis points and approximately $19 million relative to 2023. Based thereon, and considering an expected tax rate of approximately 33 percent, we are guiding to a midpoint of 35 cents of EPS for the full year. Turning to slide 19, we expect strong growth in 2024, driving midpoint revenue guidance to $1 billion. MirrorEye continues to be a major growth driver. As Jim discussed earlier on the call, we expect $100 million of MirrorEye revenue in 2024, an increase of $46 million versus the prior year, or almost double the total sales. Due to the incremental launches on Peterbilt in North America and Volvo in Europe, both mid-year, we expect incremental Mirai revenue to accelerate in the second half of the year. Another specific growth driver in 2024 is the expected ramp-up of our Smart2TAC graph programs that launched in the third quarter of last year. This next-generation SmartTAC graph will be required to be on vehicles across weights and usage applications over the next several years, with the current market primarily served by StoneRidge and only one other competitor. This will drive both OEM growth as well as aftermarket opportunities, as existing vehicles are also subject to the regulations. As a result, we expect Smart2TechGraph to contribute $30 million of incremental revenue in 2024. That said, we expect the adoption of this next-generation device to ramp up in the second half of the year as the adoption deadlines approach. Other factors contributing to our growth in 2024 include the continued growth in our off-highway vision systems with Orlaco-branded products, and OEM programs launching in Brazil as we continue to expand our OEM product offerings in South America. Due to the second half waiting for Mirai and the tachograph ramp-up, as well as improved production forecasts in the second half of the year, we are expecting revenue to be more back-half-weighted than usual. Overall, we expect a first-half-second-half revenue split of approximately 48% to 52%, with a slight ramp-up between the first and second quarter, relatively larger growth between the second and third quarter aligned with our key program launches, and another gradual ramp-up into the fourth quarter. We continue to significantly outpace our underlying end markets, creating a runway for sustainable long-term growth. Page 20 summarizes our expectations for full-year EBITDA relative to 2023. In 2024, we are expecting EBITDA growth of approximately $19 million and EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 170 basis points. We are expecting contribution margins aligned with our historical average of 25% to 30% on approximately $38 million of revenue growth, resulting in over $10 million in EBITDA growth. We are expecting gross margin expansion driven by material cost improvement and enterprise-wide initiatives aimed at improving manufacturing performance, including the reduction of quality-related costs. More specifically, we continue to focus on improving the price-cost relationship of our products through redesign, reengineering, and other supply chain strategies aimed at reducing overall material costs. We are expecting a moderate increase in SG&A, primarily driven by annual inflationary labor increases and the normalization of our annual incentive cost programs back to targeted levels in 2024 after they were reduced in 2023. We expect to continue to invest in the engineering resources that will drive our growth and expect to offset these investments with continued footprint optimization, resulting in approximately flat D&D expense year over year. Aligned with our revenue cadence for the year, we expect EBITDA to be more back-cap weighted. We expect first quarter EBITDA to slightly decline relative to the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily due to the annualization of our targeted incentive compensation programs and timing of engineering reimbursements compounded by slightly lower production in our commercial vehicle and markets. This will result in slightly below break-even first quarter EPS. We expect gross margin improvement in the first quarter to continue into the second quarter. However, we are expecting some incremental engineering spend in the second quarter to ensure an efficient launch of our next two OEM Mirai programs. As our next Mirai programs launch, SMART 2 tachograph adoption accelerates and production increases aligned with current third-party forecasts. We expect significant improvement in EBITDA from the second to third quarter and continued improvement into the fourth quarter. We will continue to leverage our above-market top-line growth targeted gross margin improvements, and an efficient operating cost structure to drive earnings growth. Moving to slide 21. In summary, we expect continued strong revenue growth in 2024, continued focus on operational improvement and material cost reduction, and continued optimization of our cost structure to drive earnings growth for the year. Longer term, Stone Ridge remains well positioned to significantly outpace our underlying markets with strong contribution margins and structural cost leverage, driving a targeted five-year revenue midpoint of $1.45 billion and midpoint EBITDA margin of 13%, resulting in a midpoint target of $190 million of EBITDA by 2028. As always, driving shareholder value is at the forefront of all of Sonar's strategic initiatives. With that, I will open up the call to questions.
spk08: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1-1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. One moment while we compile our Q&A roster. And our first question is going to come from the line of Justin Long with Stevens. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
spk01: Thanks, and good morning. Hey, Justin. Hey, good morning, Justin. Hey, good morning. So maybe to start by just taking a step back, when I think about the 2024 guidance, it implies that you'll be growing EBITDA in excess of 30% in an environment where the weighted average in markets are down about 5%. So can you just speak about your level of visibility and confidence that you have in this 2024 guidance and Let's just say the end markets end up being worse than anticipated. Can you speak to your ability to adjust and flex the business for that?
spk02: Yeah, Justin, really appreciate the question. Our guidance this year is very much aligned with some very specific Stone Ridge drivers. When you think about the launch of the MIRAI programs in mid-year, the continued adoption of SMART II, those things are really not market dependent on any significant improvement in production forecasts. That's really a StoneRidge-specific product that will drive a lot of content for us in the back half of the year. So I feel very confident in our ability to look at that as improvement for the back half. And on the contribution margins that we get on that type of content, you can expect pretty strong EBITDA growth as well to follow that. In addition, the aftermarket products generally have a higher margin than the overall business. So those products in particular can drive some pretty significant earnings expansion as well. So when you look at the volume side, I feel pretty comfortable that we have enough Stone Ridge-specific drivers that we have a lot of momentum going into the back half of the year with those launches. And I'll let Jim comment on this a little bit too, but when you look at the operational performance and what we really have set as a foundation in 2023, the continued annualization of those initiatives should drive some pretty significant improvement, both starting in the first quarter, but obviously as revenue ramps up, it gets compounded in the second half. So I feel really good about the runway that we're on, which drives improvement in the first half and then follows pretty significant revenue growth in the second half with that improvement. So I feel very confident in our ability to see the year and that kind of split.
spk01: Okay, great. And maybe to follow up on MirrorEye, so the guidance for the full year is $100 million in revenue, but it sounds like that will ramp as we move into the second half. So Is there anything you can share in terms of the annual run rate for MirrorEye revenue as we exit 2024?
spk02: Yeah, so you're going to see continued ramp in 2025, right? We've announced the Volvo program will be launching in North America in 2025, as well as another program that we haven't given a tremendous amount of detail yet on specifically, but we've got two programs in 2025. You'll also get the annualization of the programs that we are launching mid-year this year, both in North America and in Europe with Volvo. So, Mirai will continue to grow significantly, 24 to 25, just based on program launches annualization. And, Justin, I would also argue that, you know, we announced three additional fleets this morning. The more the system becomes available at the OEs, the more the fleets see the system, the more we expect adoption of the OE system and retrofit opportunities as these fleets kind of commit to, you know, full adoption over their fleet. So I think that you'll get not only normal annualization and program launches, but you'll get some increased take rate and retrofit expansion as we continue to address that market, particularly in North America.
spk04: And Matt will also see some benefit from the platform technologies that really are spawned by the base Mirai platform. You know, specifically things like the rear view trailer camera and its connectivity into the Mirai system, along with other technologies that will really grow from that or even more forward into the cockpit of the future that we mentioned this morning. So there's a lot of opportunity here for substantive growth beyond just the base platform of Mirai as well.
spk01: Okay, that's very helpful. And I guess the last one from me would be on the balance sheet and specifically free cash flow. I think you mentioned a couple times in the prepared remarks that there was an opportunity with inventory levels and getting those back to historical averages. But Can you help us kind of understand the order of magnitude in terms of the working capital opportunity in 2024 and what you're assuming for free cash flow generation in the guide?
spk02: Yeah, Justin, it's a great question. It's really an area of focus for us as we come off some of these supply chain challenges the last couple of years and things have started to normalize. Our inventory balances and turns are relatively worse than what they've been historically. Some part of that is planned obviously to support the tremendous amount of growth that we expect this year and going forward. But the normalization of supply chain will help us burn down some of that inventory and generate cash out of the working capital that's currently on the balance sheet. So right now we're five turns or so. We can expect that to improve by a turn or two in a relatively shorter term as we burn down existing inventory. That should generate 20 to $30 million of cash. We also expect, because earnings are growing, that we're pretty cash efficient and we should generate cash out of normal-based business. So if you look at the implied guidance for the end of the year, it does obviously include some expectations for cash generation.
spk05: Hi, Jim.
spk01: Matt, this is Justin. Can you hear me okay? Yeah, Justin, we can hear you. Can you hear us? Okay. Okay.
spk02: great i can hear you um matt i think i heard your 20 to 30 million of kind of cash generation opportunity from inventory and then it cut off shortly thereafter so you finish that up yeah and sorry for the technical difficulty there we are you know inventory has um has really built uh as we prepare for some of the growth particularly electronics as we look at some of the components that have long lead times there so if we think about a return to historical inventory um averages or We should even have improvement on that going forward. There's a couple of turns opportunity here. Some of that will be shorter term as we address some more specific issues that burned down inventory and particularly with the launch of these programs. But some of that will take some time as we burn down existing balances. So, you know, we should expect, you know, a turn or two of inventory improvement going forward at least. which should generate, like I said, about $20 to $30 million of working capital benefit. And then, like we said, we're pretty capital efficient. So the earnings expansion will also drive cash performance. So if you look at our EBITDA guidance and net debt levels, we do imply some cash generation and the ability to reduce that leverage profile by the end of the year.
spk01: Okay, great. That's all I had. Thank you so much for the time. Thanks, Justin. Thanks, Justin.
spk08: Thank you. And one moment as we move on to our next question. And our next question is going to come from the line of Gary Precipino with Barrington Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
spk12: Hi. Good morning, all. Hi, Gary.
spk03: My questions really revolve around your eye as it's starting to ramp up. You know, you're going from, I think, 54 million of sales to 100 million of sales this year. As these sales ramp up, how much margin incremental margin increase do you get on that product overall, or is it still at a point where because you're winning new programs that you're not getting expansion on the margin in terms of the new sales growth coming in?
spk14: Great question, Gary. I appreciate the question.
spk02: You know, Mirai has, as we've talked about for several years, Mirai had a pretty significant investment to ramp up for some of the new technology and development of these programs. And you saw that in the increased D&D over the last several years. Going forward, we have always said that Mirai at, you know, quoted take rates is basically at, you know, corporate average contribution margins. The benefit there is as the take rates increase, it leverages really well on fixed costs. Right. So, you know, at take rates, you know, if take rates were to significantly improve versus where they are today, you can expect an accretive margin profile on that growth, particularly on the OEM side. Retrofit, you know, just by the nature of the programs, aftermarket margins are generally higher, not just for Mirai, but generally across, you know, our business. So you can expect some some accretive margin on those programs as well. Although those are a little bit less volume as we've talked about. So.
spk03: So given where you are, where you will be this year with 100 million of sales, would that be at the average margins that you guys are describing or forecasting for 2024?
spk13: I think that's fair. That's roughly right.
spk03: Okay. And then a couple of other questions here. Number one, on the control devices side, which is more auto-related, has the situation where, you know, during the pandemic, the OEM order patterns were very erratic, stuff like that. Has all of this really normalized within the system, given the fact that we've had a year or two of good growth in auto production?
spk04: Yeah, generally, yes, the chaos in the ordering has stopped. But what has instead come in a bit, Gary, is that, you know, with the I'll say the weaker than expected growth in electric vehicle platforms. I'm sure reading a lot about OEMs, reconsidering how they're going to go forward with various types of drivetrains. Certain OEs had suggested that they were going to be electric only going forward, and many of those folks have reversed that. So now we're going to go back to some hybrids and You know, we may even be investing a bit in some of our existing internal combustion engine technologies, you know, given the likelihood that these technologies will last a little bit longer. So we're seeing a little bit of a change in terms of what's being requested of us in terms of what to quote on. You know, we're well-placed for that just by the nature of the fact that we've been very careful about how we're focusing on technologies, making sure that the great majority is drivetrain agnostic. So they, from a technology perspective, could be applied to electrics, to hybrids, or to internal combustion engines, depending on the particular application.
spk03: Well, yeah, that's what I'm trying to understand. If you're drivetrain agnostic, obviously EVs are, you know, all the rosy projections are, you know, you can throw them out, throw that baby out with the bathwater. So you're going to get a shift maybe to more hybrids and, you know, growth in ICE. Does it require you to win the business on some of these other programs, or do you just shift what you're doing for the various automakers to their plans for more hybrids versus electrics, more ICE versus where they thought they'd be?
spk04: I think in some cases there will be a need to win the businesses, but I think more often than not, it will be extension of current business we have in the ICE space. They'll be extending for a longer period of time the types of technologies they're working with today. And there might be some continuous improvement on those technologies or products, but they'll be, for the most part, extensions.
spk10: Okay. Thank you.
spk08: Thank you. And I would now like to hand the conference back to Jim Ziesel for closing remarks.
spk04: Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us for the call today. You know, I know your time is really important, and we do appreciate your willingness to engage us today. You know, we are very proud of our performance in 2023. It's consistent with the commitments we made at the start of the year. We will continue to deliver on our commitments by focusing on our long-term strategy, our broad operational improvements, and excellence in execution. We expect that our performance, along with our unique mix of industry-changing product platforms, will continue to drive strong shareholder value. Thanks again, everyone.
spk08: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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