2/27/2025

speaker
Conference Call Operator
Moderator

Good day and welcome to the Stone Ridge Inc. 4th Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please say no to a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kelly Harby, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Kelly Harby
Director of Investor Relations

Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us to discuss our 4th Quarter and full year 2024 results. The release and accompanying presentation was filed with the SEC and is posted on our website at stoneridge.com in the Investor section under Presentations and Events. Joining me on today's call are Jim Zisleman, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Matt Horvath, our Chief Financial Officer. During today's call, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see slide two of the presentation for a more detailed description of these non-GAAP financial measures and the appendix for a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. In addition, certain statements today may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements that are not historical in nature and include information concerning our future results or plans. Although we believe that such statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, you should understand that these statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. Additional information about such factors and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ may be found on page 3 of the presentation and in our 10-K, which will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the heading forward-looking statement. After Jim and Matt have finished their formal remarks, we will then open up the call to question. And with that, I will hand the call over to Jim.

speaker
Jim Zisleman
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Let me begin on page 4. In 2024, Stoneridge-specific growth drivers are continued focus on the execution of our major program launches, continuous improvement in our manufacturing facilities, and structural cost control enabled us to navigate through a very challenging macroeconomic environment. Driven primarily by our key growth products, including Mirai and our next-generation tachograph, the Smart2, we were able to outperform our weighted average end markets by 490 basis points. As our growth products continue to mature and our end markets continue to improve, we remain focused on improving our ability to drive earnings growth and cash performance through improved material and structural costs and improvements in working capital, particularly in inventory. In 2024, we were able to reduce our overall material costs by 120 basis points and improve directly over by 30 basis points, which is effectively a 7% improvement year over year. Additionally, our focus on cash performance and inventory management resulted in positive cash flow of approximately $24 million, an increase of approximately $56 million versus the prior year. While we are proud of our achievements in 2024, we recognize there is still opportunity for significant improvement, especially in quality. Additionally, we are focused on overall cost structure as evidenced by our recent actions to de-layer certain corporate functions which reduce costs and is improving operational efficiency. Finally, in 2024, we initiated a project in our largest manufacturing facility in Juarez, Mexico to streamline our operations, reduce manufacturing costs, improve material flow, and reduce our structural overhead. While we began to see the benefits of this project in 2024, we expect to annualize these savings and add to them as we complete the project this year. Quality-related costs, material cost improvement, and structural cost reductions remain our key priorities for 2025. Page 5 summarizes our key financial metrics for the full year 2024 compared to the prior year. In an environment where our weighted average OEM end markets declined by 10.4%, our full year 2024 sales of $908.3 million outperformed those end markets by 490 basis points. More specifically, Mirai revenue increased 22% year over year driven primarily by the launch of our program with Volvo in Europe. We expect continued success with Mirai in 2025 as we launch additional programs in North America with Volvo and Daimler Truck driving more than $50 million of additional growth for Mirai. Additionally, Smart2Tachograph continued to ramp up in 2024 in both the OEM and after the launch of the Smart2Tachograph in Europe resulting in just under $60 million in revenue for the full year. Again, these Tachograph programs provided significant growth over the prior year with sales almost doubling relative to 2023. We expect continued success with our Smart2Tachograph in 2025 as more vehicles become subject to the European regulations requiring this device. Storage remains well positioned for growth in our key product areas. Full year gross margin was relatively in line with 2023 despite the decline in revenue. This was driven by our actions to improve material costs, manufacturing performance, and quality related costs. Driven by our continued focus on supply chain strategy including resourcing and negotiated price down with our suppliers as well as reengineering components, we were able to reduce material costs by 120 basis points year over year. We continued to focus on operational improvement throughout our facilities which contributed to a 30 basis point improvement in direct labor, again, which is a 7% reduction year over year. Finally, we continue to focus on built-in quality, responsiveness, and proactive process to address any quality issues we find as we continue to enhance our engineering capabilities and capacity globally. Full year adjusted EBITDA margin declined by approximately 80 basis points compared to the prior year. Despite significant top line headwinds driven primarily by challenging end markets, our focus on improved operational performance drove a decremental contribution margin of just 19% versus our historical average of 25 to 30%. And finally, I mentioned previously our focus on cash and inventory management drove a positive free cash flow of approximately $24 million, an increase of approximately $56 million versus the prior year. This was driven primarily by significant improvement in our inventory balances which declined by $36 million this year. Overall, despite continued and significant challenges in our end markets, we were able to outperform our weighted average end markets significantly improve our operational performance and drive much stronger cash performance in 2024. Turning to slide six, Mirai continued to gain momentum in 2024 through our global OEM programs as well as continued expansion in both the aftermarket and bus end markets. We expect strong momentum to continue in 2025 as Mirai continues to be the industry-leading camera monitor system for the global commercial vehicle and bus markets. Full year 2024 Mirai revenue of $66 million grew by 22% compared to the prior year. This is primarily driven by newly launched OEM programs offset by significant headwinds impacting global commercial vehicle production volumes, particularly in Europe where production declined by 24% versus 2023. We launched our European Volvo program on the FM and FH model trucks in mid 2024. As expected, this program contributed significant incremental revenue in the fourth quarter due to strong market penetration as a new truck model ramped up production. Additionally, we launched with Peterbilt on models 579 and 567 in North America, joining the already launched Kenworth program driving incremental sales during the year. This year we are launching Mirai programs and Volvos all-new V&L truck in North America and Daimler truck North America's fifth generation Freightliner Cascadia truck. Both launches include the independent wing design which separates the system from the traditional mirrors. As such, the system falls under Stone Ridge's FMCSA exemption, allowing owners to remove conventional rearview mirrors and operate using only the factory installed camera monitor system. This allows the end customer to fully recognize the benefits of the aerodynamic wing design that reduces drag by eliminating the traditional side mirrors, contributing to improved fuel efficiency. As a result, we expect the take rates of these systems to improve as the new truck models ramp up throughout this year and into 2026. This morning, I'm also happy to announce that we are partnering with the final primary North American OEM customer to roll out retrofit applications to their customers through a pre-wire option and direct installation with a selected aftermarket upfitter. Similar to other pre-wire programs, this program is without an official volume-based award. However, it creates a significant opportunity to showcase our system specifications and capabilities to both this OEM partner as well as their end customers. With this program, Mirai will continue to be the only system available on new production vehicles in the United States and with every major OEM in North America. As has been historically the case, we will continue to work with this OEM to expand the pre-wire program into a permanent OEM available system. Based on current market indications, additional program launches, and the expected ramp up of new truck models, we expect significant Mirai revenue growth in 2025. Full year 2025 revenue is expected to grow by at least $54 million or almost double to $120 million of which $100 million relates to OEM program revenue. As discussed on previous earnings calls, many of our existing customers have begun to equip their trucks with Mirai as standard equipment, including certain long haul trucks for DoF and Volvo and Europe. Additionally, Mirai continues to be optional on many other models for these same customers. Given the adoption on some trucks as standard equipment as well as the continued positive feedback from our customers and their customers, we are expecting higher take rates for the system in 2025 and beyond. We are confident market adoption of this industry changing technology will continue to accelerate. As a result, and as we will discuss in more detail later in the call, we are updating our long-term revenue targets to reflect Mirai OEM revenue to almost triple by 2029 to almost $300 million annually. This estimation is based on our targeted European take rate of approximately 50% based on the extrapolation of current take rates and targeted North American take rates of 25 to 35%. This North American improvement is driven by customer feedback from both our OEM and fleet partners, expected momentum and overall market adoption, maturing launches, and design and functionality changes in our new and existing programs. By the end of 2025, we will have all four global OEM programs launched on a number of different nameplates and models. With so many models already offering Mirai as standard equipment, we are confident market adoption will continue to accelerate. Now turning to slide seven, and as we have discussed in the past, we continue to expand our core technology and product areas to drive long-term growth. Aligned with our focus on commercial vehicle safety and efficiency, we have developed a suite of products related to trailer connectivity to the tractor. The ability to connect the tractor to the trailer seamlessly stems from our proprietary technology enabling data to be transmitted through the existing power cables in the trailer and connected to the tractor through the existing harness and wiring. This allows for fast and easy adoption of the capabilities and does not require any additional training or change to driver habits. This point of connection enables many different trailer connectivity products and capabilities. The most impactful and most desired by our fleet partners with which we are working is the trailer backup camera. The digital backup camera is mounted on the back of the trailer with integrated lighting and software overlays to illuminate and guide the driver as they maneuver the trailer in low light or tight parking conditions. The key differentiator with our product is the ability to integrate the backup camera to a hardwired connection providing effectively no latency and a very high quality digital image. This configuration avoids the adverse effects of wireless systems such as the distance to the camera or impediments to the video signal. The value proposition for the backup camera is very strong and we expect good adoption once the system is broadly available which we expect to start later this year. With the hardware connection of the trailer, the possibilities for connectivity and system expansion are almost limitless. We are able to add additional camera and sensor applications throughout the trailer both inside and out to address a number of the issues drivers deal with today. Through the secondary display that can be integrated with the current climate and infotainment display, we can transmit critical information to the driver such as tire pressure and temperature, rear -a-jar status, and the monitor cargo on the interior of the trailer with an integrated camera. We have been working with select key fleet partners to design the system features and align the value proposition before expanding our commercial focus and broadly launching the system. We expect to begin to roll out the system on a limited basis in 2025 followed by significant expansion in 2026. Our suite of trailer connectivity products and solutions highlight our continued focus on expanding on our core technologies and platforms to drive long-term growth. With that, I'll turn it over to Matt to discuss our financial performance and expectations in more detail. Matt? Thanks Jim.

speaker
Matt Horvath
Chief Financial Officer

Turning to page nine, fourth quarter sales were 218.9 dollars. As expected, sales were significantly impacted by continued pressure across all of our major end markets. However, revenue from Stone Ridge specific growth drivers helped to offset and market declines. More specifically, in the quarter we saw growth in mirror eye revenue, particularly from the newly launched Volvo program which grew 3.1 million dollars over the third quarter and the largest quarter yet for Smart2 Tachograph revenue of over 17 million dollars. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was six million dollars or 2.7 percent of sales. Elevated warranty and other quality related costs significantly impacted the quarter versus our prior expectations. However, improved manufacturing performance partially offset these headwinds for a net impact of 3.1 million dollars. More specifically, these quality and inventory related costs were related to specific incidents and products which have been contained through supplier management, manufacturing process improvements, and modifications to hardware or integrated software. Finally, fourth quarter engineering expenses were 2.1 million dollars higher than previously expected, primarily due to design related tooling changes resulting from a change in supplier as well as delayed timing of customer reimbursements. We expect to be able to offset a portion of these costs in 2025 once we meet the required engineering or program hurdles and recognize the customer funding. Page 10 summarizes our key financial metrics specific to control devices. Control devices full year sales of 296.3 million dollars declined by approximately 14 percent versus the prior year, primarily due to lower production volumes for our largest North American passenger vehicle customers. According to the latest IHS production data, the domestic three had -over-year production declines of 4.3 percent or approximately three times the North American end market decline of 1.5 percent. Full year adjusted operating income of 6.6 million dollars or 2.2 percent of sales declined by 170 basis points compared to the prior primarily as a result of the sales decline. We continue to focus on improved operational performance driving a 250 basis point improvement in material costs and a 2.1 million dollar improvement in quality related costs. Looking into 2025, we expect production volumes to continue to decline moderately in North America. Additionally, there are a couple of programs that are coming to an end for control devices that will put additional pressure on top line performance this year. As a result, we are expecting control devices sales to decline this year relative to last. We will continue to focus on the things we can control and drive improvement in material costs and manufacturing performance. As a result, we are expecting a stable margin profile this year despite the modest decline in sales that we expect for this segment. Page 11 summarizes our key financial metrics specific to electronics. Full year sales of 594.7 million dollars were approximately in line with the prior year. Stable revenue was driven by Stone Ridge specific growth factors including incremental revenue from the Smart2 tachograph programs and incremental mirror eye revenue. This was offset by a significant decline in the commercial vehicle end markets including a 24 percent decline in Europe and a two and a half percent decline in North America. On growth of 0.2 percent, we outperformed electronics weighted average OEM end markets by 16.3 percent. Gross margin remained flat compared to the prior year primarily as a result of material cost improvements resulting in a 110 basis point improvement as well as reduced direct labor which contributed 40 basis points of improvement. Included in our operating performance was increased quality related costs of 1.2 million dollars as well as one-time costs related to distress suppliers impacting our operating performance by approximately 3.2 million dollars during the year. We continue to focus on these issues and expect significant improvement in 2025. While we are expecting a relatively flat commercial vehicle end market in 2025, we expect revenue growth for electronics primarily driven by the annualization and launch of mirror eye OEM programs and continued strong performance with our Smart2 tachograph both on OEM and aftermarket applications. Page 12 summarizes our key financial metrics specific to StoneRage Brazil. StoneRage Brazil's full year sales were approximately 50.1 million dollars which declined year over year primarily driven by continued macroeconomic challenges in South America. Full year adjusted operating margin declined by approximately 500 basis points primarily driven by reduced fixed cost leverage on lower sales partially offset by lower SG&A costs. We expect revenue growth and margin expansion in 2025 as we continue to shift our portfolio in Brazil to more closely align with our global growth initiatives and further expand our local OEM programs to support our global customers. Brazil is a critical engineering center which we will continue to utilize to cost effectively support our global business. Turning to page 13, as Jim discussed earlier on the call, we generated 23.8 million dollars in free cash flow during the year which is an improvement of 55.5 million dollars compared to 2023. This significant improvement was driven by our continued focus on reducing that working capital including a 36.4 million dollar reduction in inventory this year with a 25.1 million dollar reduction in the fourth quarter alone. As we remain focused on our key working capital initiatives we are expecting continued improvement in 2025. We also announced an amendment to our existing credit facility that modified our leverage and interest coverage ratios to provide financial covenant relief through the third quarter of 2025. The covenants return to a three and a half times net debt leverage ratio and a three and a half times interest coverage ratio in the fourth quarter of 2025. With this amendment we are confident the company has ample liquidity and flexibility to operate in the current macroeconomic conditions. Based on our 2025 guidance we expect a compliance leverage ratio between two and two and a half times by the end of the year and expect to remain compliant with the amended covenant ratios. Turning to slide 14, this morning we are issuing our full year 2025 guidance. We are expecting sales of 860 to 890 million dollars. We expect continued progress on our material cost improvement initiatives, quality related costs, and manufacturing performance to drive improvement in gross margin to a midpoint of approximately 22.25 percent which is a 135 basis point improvement versus 2024. We expect operating income to improve by 70 basis points to a midpoint of one percent based on the gross margin improvement I just outlined. We expect these improvements to drive EBITDA margin expansion of two million dollars to a midpoint of 40 million and an EBITDA margin of approximately 4.6 percent. Finally, this year we are introducing free cash flow guidance as we continue to put a significant focus on inventory and working capital improvement. Similar to 2024, when we reduced inventory by over 36 million dollars, we are expecting continued improvement in inventory balances and overall improved earnings to drive approximately 25 to 30 million dollars of free cash flow this year. Slide 15 outlines our expectations for 2025 revenue and EBITDA in additional detail. Typically, we use IHS as a benchmark for weighted average and market performance. In 2025, IHS is suggesting that our weighted average OEM and markets will be approximately flat relative to 2024. However, based on our current view of customer production, we are expecting OEM volume to decline by approximately 3.8 percent over last year. That said, should production materialize as IHS has forecasted, there could be upside to our guidance as the year progresses. As Jim outlined previously, we are expecting another year of strong growth for Mirai. In total, we expect that Mirai will grow by approximately 54 million dollars or approximately 75 percent over 2024, resulting in total Mirai sales of approximately 120 million dollars this year. We expect that Mirai growth will be partially offset by the end of a couple of programs contributing approximately 41 million dollars of revenue decline in 2025 relative to 2024. These revenue drivers result in a midpoint of 875 million dollars in revenue for 2025. Moving on to EBITDA, the slight decline in revenue drives a contribution headwind of approximately 9 million dollars. Similarly, we eliminated the vast majority of our incentive compensation in 2024 with the expectation that programs return to target in 2025, driving a 7 million dollar headwind year over year. As we have discussed throughout the call, we remain focused on improving quality-related costs and reducing material cost. Improvement in these areas, as well as the elimination of one-time distress supplier-related costs incurred in 2024, is expected to contribute 14 million dollars of improvement this year. Finally, as Jim discussed earlier, we have continued to focus on our overall cost structure to both reduce our corporate structure and improve our manufacturing performance. Overall, we are expecting an incremental 4 million dollars in savings related to these initiatives. Finally, we continue to monitor the impacts of potential tariffs, particularly as it relates to Mexico. Similar to previously enacted tariffs or other raw material related cost increases over the last several years, we will implement supply chain and customer pricing strategies to mitigate any cost increases that may occur. We will continue to monitor shifts in macroeconomic policies and the potential for impacts on our business to ensure that we act quickly to offset any incremental costs as we have done historically. In summary, we are expecting a slight decline in continued significantly improved operating performance to drive EBITDA improvement in 2025 to our midpoint EBITDA guidance of 40 million dollars. As it relates to the cadence of our guidance, we are expecting an even split of revenue between the first and second half. We are expecting first quarter revenue to be slightly below the fourth quarter of 2024 as Smart2 sales come off of a record quarter. We are expecting EBITDA to be more weighted to second half of the year, driven by continued ramp up of structural cost improvements and reduced engineering expenses after the launches of the Volvo and Daimler Mirai programs in North America. We are expecting first quarter EBITDA to be approximately in line with the fourth quarter of 2024. Slide 16 lays out the basic assumptions that provide the framework for our short and long term targets. First, looking at 2026, we are targeting revenue of at least 975 million dollars, which would represent 11 percent growth versus our midpoint expectation for 2025. This is primarily driven by expectations of strong commercial vehicle production, particularly in North America in advance of new emissions regulations in 2027. Growth in our weighted average OEM and markets is expected to be 7.4 percent based on current IHS forecasts. In addition to a strong market, we are expecting continued expansion of our Mirai programs driven primarily by continued expansion in North America as the programs launching this year will be annualized next year. We are expecting continued strong take rates in Europe and growth in our fleet business to contribute to incremental Mirai revenue in 2026. We have additional opportunities for growth, including growth in our actuation and sensor programs and control devices, growth in our connected trailer activities, and growth in our aftermarket businesses, including our off-highway business, which we will quantify in more detail as we get closer to the end of this year and formally issue our 2026 guidance. Overall, we are expecting very strong revenue growth in 2026. We expect that growth will drive significant earnings expansion as well. Based on our historical and expected contribution margin, we expect that our growth will improve EBITDA to at least 70 million dollars in 2026, which would represent an EBITDA margin of at least 7 percent. We will have the ability to outperform this contribution-based target as we will continue to execute on our 2026 guidance, continue to focus on reduced quality-related costs, and drive operational improvement as we grow. Looking beyond 2026, we are expecting continued strong growth in our key product categories. We expect that control devices will return to market-out performance driven by expanding content and new programs, both awarded and in our pipeline, including the leak detection module program we have outlined on previous calls. We expect continued expansion in our Mirai programs as they mature and continue to ramp up. Similarly, with the launch of the Connected Trailer products this year and the continued adoption of camera-based safety systems in the off-highway market, we are expecting our aftermarket products to outpace market growth. We expect these growth drivers to result in 1.3 to 1.45 billion dollars of revenue by 2029, representing a five-year compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.5 to almost 10 percent. Based on our long-term revenue targets, we expect EBITDA contribution of more than 100 million dollars, which is in line with our historical 25 to 30 percent contribution margin. With this growth, we are targeting EBITDA of approximately 160 to 200 million dollars in 2029. Turning to page 17, in summary, we continue to execute against our key priorities throughout 2024, setting up strong performance in the future. In 2024, we outperformed our weighted average OEM markets by 490 basis points, improved material costs by 120 basis points, and reduced direct labor costs by 7 percent. Additionally, our focus on cash performance resulted in a free cash flow improvement of 56 million dollars year over year, driven by inventory reduction of 36 million dollars. Stone Ridge has a strong portfolio of products and opportunities to continue to expand our market share and content growth going forward. We expect that this growth, along with the continued execution of our key operational priorities, will drive significant earnings expansion and, as a result, strong shareholder returns both in the short and long term. Stone Ridge remains well positioned to outpace our weighted average OEM markets, significantly expand our earnings, and drive long-term shareholder value. With that, I will open the call to questions.

speaker
Conference Call Operator
Moderator

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a key, if at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Our first question comes from Daniel Ambrow with students. Please go ahead.

speaker
Daniel Ambrow
Questioner (Student Analyst)

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking our questions. Hey Daniel, good morning. Maybe if we could start on the fourth quarter a little bit on the cost side. I guess, Matt, the engineering and quality costs for the surprises versus the guidance that you set in late October, I guess can you just unpack maybe how those unfolded? Those costs accelerate quickly and very late in the quarter. Really the heart of the question, trying to figure out you guys visibility that these won't recur and how comfortable you feel with the 25 guidance, just given how maybe surprising these costs have been in recent quarters as we think about the outlook here.

speaker
Matt Horvath
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, sure. Good question, Daniel. I mean, on the engineering side, you know, a lot of those customer reimbursements are the result of meeting certain hurdles in the program development or kind of in the development of the software that we're building. Those things can be a little bit variable. Obviously, we're very close to those hurdles, which is why we expect in the fourth quarter and why it kind of timed in the 2025. So generally, we've got pretty good visibility there. You know, at the end of the year, we've got relatively more reimbursement than we expect just in the fourth quarter, which is historically similar. So the also, you know, if you think about it, we're launching some very significant programs in 2025. So combined with kind of the seasonality of the expected reimbursements and the magnitude of that potential reimbursement because of the launches, it creates a little more volatility, particularly this fourth quarter, even the most. Like we said, though, we expect that that's kind of retimed in 2025. So it kind of gives you some idea of how close we are on those hurdles for the quarter. You know, on the quality related side, Daniel, the, you know, as you heard in the prepared remarks, we are extremely focused on improving quality. And that includes really an in-depth review of all the processes that historically even have gone into building these programs and products. And as we review those processes and dig into that, we find some areas that need some improvement. So, you know, I would look at that as a sign of continuous improvement. You know, we're trying to close those items out faster than we have in the past and get through some of those issues. As you know, you know, when we find a quality issue, the accrual requires us to take into account all the future expectations for those issues. So that's why you get a little bit of lumpiness. You had a little bit earlier this year, a little bit later this year. That's why you get some of that lumpiness. So, you know, generally speaking, we've got good visibility to improvement there and kind of foundational improvement. Occasionally you get, like we did in the fourth quarter, some kind of peaks and valleys in specific incidents. The idea there is to reduce the time until response to those peaks and valleys and try to reduce that overall cost. That's really where we're focused.

speaker
Jim Zisleman
President and Chief Executive Officer

And, Matt, maybe I would add just a little bit more on the quality side, too. And you brought it up, but just to be clear, you know, you're talking about quality. There's really two elements to it. You know, one is what are you doing today to avoid or minimize quality issues in the future? Right. So, and those are the processes that Matt was talking about. You know, do we feel now that we have the right processes, the right rigor, the right discipline in place to basically build in quality, ensure absolute quality, you know, in the product that you have coming forward? And we actually feel that way, right? We've made a lot of changes in the last two years and those processes are very strong. We have a lot of dredging for issues during the development process to avoid, you know, the, I'll say the manifestation of quality later on. So, we think as far as storage is concerned, we are in very good shape with that now. And what still is getting us a little bit are some of the things that were from the past, right? So, what are we doing about that? Because, like, if there was some weakness out there that you have to deal with, you know, so be it. What we can do now is absolutely be, you know, overarchingly all over that stuff, making sure that we are identifying and finding those things as early as possible and then quickly addressing anything that comes up in the field. That the impact to our earnings and, you know, to the performance of the company. So, we have also instituted those processes, again, to make sure that what is happening out there from the stored product is found very fast and addressed very quickly inside the company. So, I think on both ends, you know, the future built in quality and then addressing, you know, existing quality issues, I think we've got our act together here and really made a big difference in how we're

speaker
Matt Horvath
Chief Financial Officer

operating. And, Daniel, I would say on the confidence and the guidance, you know, look across the foundational improvements we've made at the company this year. You know, material costs significantly improved, even direct labor significantly improved. You heard about some of the specific actions we've been taking to focus the cost, the overall cost structure and structural cost. You know, as you saw in the kind of the prepared presentation, several of those things we expect to continue and the guidance calls for even at a moderated rate even to last year. So, you know, I think we've got good momentum across a lot of those foundational issues. Like Jim said, the quality issues, we've got a lot of room for improvement there and we're seeing the improvement. So, I feel very confident in the guidance going in next year. You know, obviously, we were, you know, we were a little more conservative than IHS on the top line. There's maybe some opportunity there. Should IHS materialize as had been forecasted, but we've got good visibility to a lot of that improvement and I feel very confident in where we're headed.

speaker
Daniel Ambrow
Questioner (Student Analyst)

Yeah. No, that's really encouraging. Maybe following up on that revenue outlook. If I look on slide 15, so the revenue growth next year, it seems like it's mirror eye, but I guess, can you unpack a little bit what Smart2 tachograph expected to do? The growth there isn't clear from that side. Have we plateaued a little bit there or kind of what's your growth expectation for that product?

speaker
Matt Horvath
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So, Daniel, good question. So, if you remember, there's really two pieces of Smart2. One is the aftermarket, which has these kind of rolling on requirements every year as this regulation rolls out to different, you know, weighted vehicles and the way the vehicles operate. And then you've got the OEM opportunity, which is generally pretty stable as new trucks are manufactured. So, we had this ramp up last year as kind of the first tranche of that aftermarket business hit. You know, there's still opportunity to expand our market share in that space, but generally speaking, the guidance expects fairly stable revenue contribution from Smart2 as we head into 2025 here.

speaker
Daniel Ambrow
Questioner (Student Analyst)

Great. And maybe the last one follow up for me. Inventory working capital have been good guys on the cashflow side. I guess that's expected to continue in 2025, but revenue's down. That makes sense. I guess when we roll forward to 26, how do we feel about the ability for inventory to continue improving or whether it needs to be an inventory build and maybe a use of working capital to support that top line growth when we return to top line growth?

speaker
Matt Horvath
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, no, I don't expect, you know, I appreciate the comments on the improvement in 24 and in 25 here, but we're still not where we want to be. I mean, if you look historically, we've been double digit turns in some of our facilities. If you look at the guidance, that's not what we're expecting to be by the end of this year. So, there is still plenty of improvement opportunity in inventory. You know, with significant growth, you might get a little bit of inventory build in normal state, but versus where we are now, we still think that there's opportunity to reduce inventory as we head into that growth. So, I would not expect a significant, certainly not a we may moderate the improvement with the growth opportunity that we've got going forward there. But, you know, I think it's clear that we, the focus on cash performance and cash flow profile has resulted in some significant improvement. I would expect that to continue in 2025 here on the working capital side and then build a good foundation as we go into 2026 to make sure that that remains stable.

speaker
Daniel Ambrow
Questioner (Student Analyst)

Great. I appreciate the color. That's what guys. Thanks, Daniel. Thanks, Daniel.

speaker
Conference Call Operator
Moderator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Ziselman for any closing remarks.

speaker
Jim Zisleman
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, everyone, for joining the call again today. I know your time is very important. And as always, we truly appreciate your willingness to engage us in each and every one of these calls. You know, we have built a strong foundation that allow us to drive significant earnings expansions as we grow here in the future. We'll continue to deliver our commitments by focusing on long term strategy, quality improvements, material manufacturing cost reductions, and several other company initiatives. We expect that our performance along with our unique mix of industry changing product platforms will continue to drive strong shareholder value. Thanks again, everybody.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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