Superior Industries International Inc

Hello and welcome to the Superior Industries fourth quarter for your 2022 Earnings Study Conference call. My name is Caroline and I'll be your coordinator for today's event. I'm joined this morning by Mashti Abulaban, President and CEO, Tim Trinary, Executive Vice President and CFO, Joanne Finan, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations Sustainability Corporate Secretary, Please note this call is being recorded and for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen only mode. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the call. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad to register your questions. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero and you'll be connected to an operator. I will now hand over the call to your host, Joanne Finan, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Thank you. Good morning. Good morning. everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year earnings call. During our call this morning, we will be referring to our earnings presentation, which, along with our earnings release, is available on the investor relations section of Superior's website. I am joined on the call by Majdi Aboulaban, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Tim Trenary, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before I turn the call over to Mashti, I would like to remind everyone that any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation or commented on today are subject to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Please refer to slide two of this presentation for the full Safe Harbor statement and to the company's SEC filings, including the company's current annual report on Form 10-K for a more complete discussion of forward-looking statements and risk factors. We will also be discussing various non-GAAP measures today. These non-GAAP measures exclude the impact of certain items and therefore are not calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of this presentation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Majdi to provide a business and portfolio update.

Hey, thanks, Joanne, and thanks, everyone, for joining our call today to review our fourth quarter and full year results. Starting on slide five with the full year highlights. During 2022, the Superior Team faced unprecedented industry challenges head on, including lower volumes, inflation, schedule volatility, and challenging dialogues with customers related to customer recoveries. I am truly proud of the hard work of our teams and the results we have delivered. These results are the culmination of our efforts in executing priorities laid out in our value creation roadmap, building on a solid foundation, driving operational excellence, and delivering profitable growth. Our portfolio strategy continues to play out. Demand for our premium products has enabled us to deliver content outgrowth. for the fourth year in a row. In 2022, we delivered 8% growth in value-added sales driven by demand for favorable wheel mix and by customer recoveries. During the year, we realized 14% content growth per wheel and saw continued increase in demand for larger and premium wheels. On the profitability front, our teams tackled an exceptionally challenging operating environment, successfully negotiating customer recovery and responding to cost pressures, with ever-increasing focus on lean and continuous improvement. Our collective efforts resulted in a strong multi-year high adjusted EBITDA of $194 million and 25% vice-margin, a significant year-on-year growth in earnings and margin expansion, I am also pleased with the results of our team's continued focus on cash flow. Through improved profitability, working capital management, and students in capital expenditures, we generated more than $80 million in free cash flow, improved our cash position to $213 million, and reduced net debt to $434 million, a $68 million reduction versus the prior year. These improved results have strengthened our financial position, enabling us to attract $400 million in capital to refinance our term loan. The extended maturity of our term loan and the strong cash balance provides us with confidence and flexibility in the coming years as we execute our strategies and tackle industry challenges. In terms of 2023, We remain cautious about how macroeconomic factors, including heightened interest rates and input costs, will impact automotive industry production. While some of the industry supply chain challenges are abating, we are still seeing continued choppiness and volatility. The industry is not out of the woods yet. In fact, we are anticipating very little growth, if any, in our markets, specifically. We expect a declining market in Europe and a flat one in the U.S. Further, tackling cost inflation, especially energy, through continuous improvement and negotiating for permanent price adjustments will be paramount. Now, on to slide six with the fourth quarter highlights. Despite a volatile and choppy production environment, our team's commercial and cost discipline delivered solid performance in the quarter. While industry volumes increased 11% versus the prior year, we actually grew FX-adjusted value-added sales by 22% while also driving substantial earnings growth and margin expansion. Successful negotiations with our customers for cost recoveries in the quarter which by the way tend to be very choppy and for prior periods contributed to these results further as i noted at the beginning of this call we continue to leverage our innovative portfolio to drive content growth with content per week increased 26 versus the prior year turning on to slide 7 which highlights industry production by region and how our differentiated portfolio of product technologies is driving content growth. In the fourth quarter of 2022, while we saw notable increases in industry production on a year-over-year basis in both North America and Europe, we outperformed in both regions. Combined, we achieved 11% growth over market in the fourth quarter and normalizing for choice recoveries a three-year category of 8% growth over market. Moving on to slide eight and looking further in our current operating environment. Globally, industry production has finally started to rebound for the first time since 2020, yet remains far below pre-COVID levels. We continue to face a difficult operating environment marked by headwind noise on this slide. Most notably, elevated input costs and ongoing disruption in Europe. That said, substantial tailwinds remain, including the aging of semiconductor supply constraints coupled with solid demand for premium wheels and the benefit of our local-for-local manufacturing footprint, which I'll touch on a bit later. We will continue our efforts to capture these long-term tailwinds in 2023 to position superior for long-term growth. Moving on to slide nine to address progress on our multi-year value creation roadmap. Our team has continued to consistently execute on our strategic priorities laid out here. From an operational excellence standpoint, we continued our focus on cost discipline and continuous improvement initiatives. Further, commercial discipline has also been a key success factor for us, supporting our multi-year solid margin expansion. Beyond operational excellence, we have maintained focus on driving profitable growth. We truly believe we have the broadest portfolio in the industry, enabling us to benefit from the continued secular trends towards larger and lighter wheels with premium finishes. Further, our local for local manufacturing footprint is well established and remains a tailwind as major customers seek to de-risk long supply chains. Due to recent update in EU legislation, substantial duties are now imposed on wheels imported into Europe from both China and Morocco, two key regions where our competitors operate. In line with our local-for-local strategy, we manufacture wheels in proximity to our key customer facilities and do not face these same errors, resulting in a competitive advantage. Slide 10 is more stellar and quantifies the progress we have achieved since we first rolled out our value creation roadmap back in 2019. This foundation has enabled our recent financial performance, delivering earnings growth despite a significant decline in industry production. Further, we have made the right adjustments to our business and implemented changes to the cost structure to support profitability. Against an 18% decline in industry unit shipments since 2019, Our FX adjusted value added sales has increased 8%. Adjusted EBITDA margin has expanded by 280 basis points. And content per wheel has expanded 33%, collectively enabling us to reduce net debt by $120 million. And then to refinance a significant portion of our capital structure. This remarkable performance amidst one of the most challenging operating environments our industry has ever faced, gives us great confidence in Superior's ability to deliver long-term profitable growth. Slide 11 highlights the culmination of our portfolio strategy since 2019, manifesting in 33% content growth per wheel. We have continued to deliver technologies that meet increasing demand for larger and lighter wheels with premium finishes. With HMV technology steadily making up a larger share of our portfolio. Slide 12 highlights how new launches have continued to reflect the continuing adoption of our technology and the growing diversity of our customer base. Over two-thirds of our launches you see on this chart in 22 included large diameter wheels. And more than 50% included lighter and premium wheels. Flight 13 highlights progress towards our sustainability goals for the year. Our team's focus on safety has enabled us to reduce recordable incident rates by 50% since 2018, an industry benchmark. We also continue to focus on sustainability using renewable energy. 82% of our electricity is now procured from renewable sources. Further, our focus on green products through our R4 strategy is yielding results. Our yields on average actually deliver less than 50% CO2 footprint than the global aluminum industry average. Progress in each of these areas has continued to make us more attractive to global OEMs that are looking for partners with sustainable operations. We are planning to provide more detail on these achievements in our upcoming sustainability report, which we plan to publish later this year. I will conclude my remarks by addressing our full year 2023 outlook on slide 14. As I noted at the beginning of the call, we remain cautious about how macroeconomic factors, including heightened interest rates and input costs, will impact automotive industry production levels. While some of the industry supply chain challenges are abating, we are still seeing continued choppiness and volatility. We are anticipating very little growth in any, if any, in our markets. Specifically, as I mentioned earlier, we expect a declining market in Europe and a flat one in the U.S. For the year, we expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of $170 million to $200 million. and cash flow from operations in the range of $110 million to $130 million. Our adjusted EBITDA and cash generation, while still above historical levels, will be impacted primarily by lower customer recovery versus 2022. Tim will provide more cover on this later. In closing, I am very pleased with the impressive results our team delivered this year in the face of unprecedented challenges. I would like to thank every member of our superior team for their efforts and hard work. We look forward to continuing our progress in 2023 as we generate long-term value to our shareholders. And now I will turn the call over to Tim. Tim?

Thank you, Mashti, and good morning, everyone. By any measure, 2022 is a challenging year for our company. Light vehicle build in our markets remained the press for the third year in a row, down almost 20% from pre-COVID levels. Supply chain disruptions, including semiconductor availability, gave rise to significant OEM vehicle production volatility. The cost of aluminum in our wheels skyrocketed, as did the cost of energy to manufacture the wheels, especially in Europe. General inflation, including wage inflation and the cost of resins in the wheel coatings, ramped up in the back half of 2021, It continued throughout 2022. About half of our business is in Europe. The euro crashed during the year, dropping to as low as 98 cents, the lowest in 20 years, thereby deflating European sales and profits. And finally, the capital markets became choppy during the year and still are. Notwithstanding these headwinds, The superior management team, in large part through the extraordinary efforts of our commercial and procurement organizations, protected the company's margins. As a consequence, funds managed by Oak Tree Capital Management, LP, provided the capital for a $400 million senior secured term loan, extending our momentum and advancing our growth strategy to drive shareholder value. Let's have a look at how the company performs financially in the aforementioned business environment. The number of wheels sold, sales, and profit for 2022 can be found on page 16, fourth quarter and full year of 2022 financial summary. In the fourth quarter, wheels sold were 3.7 million, down 5% compared to the prior year period. For the full year, wheels sold were $15.6 million, down 3% from the prior year. More than all the decline in wheels sold is attributable to Europe, primarily because of the aftermarket business. The company's European aftermarket business benefited in 2021 from problematic logistics experienced by exporters of aftermarket wheels into Europe, primarily the Asian manufacturers. Because of the 2021 aftermarket wheel supply constraints, aftermarket sales in 2021 were about 15% higher than expected. Conversely, in 2022, the company's European aftermarket sales were about 20% lower than expected because of improved logistics for the aftermarket wheel borders, a warmer winter, recession worries, and the impact of consumer inflation on the ability of consumers to afford winter wheels. Net sales increased to $402 million for the quarter compared to $368 million in the prior year. For the full year, net sales were $1.6 billion compared to $1.4 billion in the prior year. The increase in net sales is primarily due to the pass-through of higher aluminum costs to our customers, especially earlier in 2022. Your Euro weighed on net sales in 2022. Value-added sales increased to $218 million for the quarter, compared to $189 million the prior year, a 16% increase. For the full year, value-added sales were $771 million, compared to $754 million the prior year, a 2% increase. Value-added sales in 2022 benefited from the pass-through of cost inflation to our customers, especially in the fourth quarter, and higher premium content. In the fourth quarter, we reported net income of $17 million, or earnings per diluted share of $0.25, compared to a net loss of $4 million, or a loss of $0.48 per diluted share in the prior year period. For the full year 2022, we reported net income of $37 million, or earnings per diluted share of $0.02, compared to net income of $4 million, a loss per diluted share of $1.17 in the prior year period. The loss for diluted share in 2021 arises from value accretion of and dividends paid on the preferred equity. Page 17, fourth quarter year-over-year sales bridge. Value-added sales increased $218 million from $189 million, an increase of 16%, now standing fewer sales of wheels than in the prior year period. Before giving effect to the impact of currency, value-added sales were up 22 percent. Volume price mix, 38 million, benefited from pass-through of cost inflation to our customers and higher premium real content. The weaker yield weighed on value-added sales by 9 million, and the higher cost of aluminum, 5 million, was passed through to our customers. The full year, 2022, year-over-year sales break is on page 18. Value-added sales were $771 million, up 2%, notwithstanding fewer wheel sales in the prior year period. Before it affected the impact of currency, value-added sales were up 8%. Volume, price, mix, $58 million, benefited from pass-through of cost inflation to our customers and higher premium wheel content. The weaker year will weight on value-added sales by $42 million. Higher aluminum costs of $239 million in 2022 compared to 2021 were passed through to our customers. On page 19, the fourth quarter of 2022, year-over-year adjusted EBITDA average. Adjusted EBITDA of the quarter increased to $58 million, a 26% margin expressed as a percent of value-added sales, compared to $37 million, a 20% margin in the prior year period. The improvement in adjusted EBITDA and the associated margin expansion is comprised of $36 million in performance, offset in part by $8 million of unfavorable volume price mix and $7 million of unfavorable metal timing. Unfavorable volume price mix reflects fewer wheel sales in the quarter, primarily aftermarket wheels. The metal timing reflects a mismatch in the quarter of the cost of metal to superior, and the amount of that cost passed through to customers. In periods of rapidly changing aluminum costs, this mismatch will occur, but tends to net over time. In this instance, in 2021, the cost of aluminum rose dramatically, and in 2022, the cost declined dramatically. Level timing was favorable, 7 million in 2021, and unfavorable, 7 million in 2022. With respect to the favorable performance, pass-through of increased cost to our customers does not necessarily match the timing of the cost inflation. The cost of OEM production schedule volatility and lower fixed cost absorption on lower light vehicle build. Some of this performance in 2022 is recovery of the cost inflation and OEM production schedule volatility that began to ramp up in the back half of 2021. The full year 2022 year-over-year adjusted EBITDA bridge is on page 20. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $194 million, a 25 percent margin expressed as a percent of value-added sales, compared to $167 million, a 22 percent margin in the prior year period. This improvement in adjusted EBITDA and the associated margin expansion is comprised of $57 million in performance offset in part by $16 million of unfavorable volume price mix, $13 million of unfavorable metal timing, and $1 million of unfavorable currency. The unfavorable volume price mix reflects fewer wheel sales in 2022, again, primarily aftermarket wheels. Metal timing was unfavorable $13 million in 2022, but favorable $9 million in 2021, So 4 million net unfavorable two years, 2021 and 22. As previously described, some of these favorable performance is recovery of the cost inflation and OEM production schedule volatility that began to ramp up in the back half of 2021. An overview of the company's fourth quarter and full year 2022 free cash flow is on page 21. Cash flow from operating activities improved because of higher earnings in 2022 compared to 2021, but also with respect to the full year, improved working capital performance in 2022. Cash used by investing activities is similar in 2022 and 21. It continues to run lower than pre-COVID levels. Since the onset of the virus in 2019, We have run the business with an elevated focus on reducing capital intensity and therefore fewer capital expenditures. Free cash flow of $63 million for the fourth quarter and $80 million for the full year 2022 is significantly higher than the 2021. In a nutshell, free cash flow improved significantly in 2022 because of higher earnings, more effective management of working capital, and lower capital expenditures. An overview of the company's capital structure as of the end of 2022 may be found on page 22. Cash on the balance sheet at year end was $213 million, an increase of $100 million from the prior year. Funded debt was $647 million at year end and net debt $334 million, a decrease of $68 million. We intend to continue to focus on deleveraging the balance sheet. As of the end of 2022, liquidity, including availability under the revolving credit facility, was $231 million. Superior's debt maturity profile as of December 31, 2022, is depicted on page 23. The revolving credit facility was undrawn at year end. We remain in compliance with all loan covenants and have no significant near-term retirees of funded debt. Page 24, you'll find the company's full year 2023 outlook. Vehicle production in our market is not expected to return to pre-COVID levels in the foreseeable future, so we expect flat light vehicle build in our markets in 2022. Almost somewhat diminished, the headwinds I spoke of earlier, More specifically, supply chain disruptions and the associated OEM vehicle production volatility and cost inflation, especially energy in Europe, remain a challenge. Euro has recovered some, but at $1.06, it's still well below recent historical levels. We enjoyed considerable success in recovering cost inflation from customers in 2022 and have now pivoted to negotiating appropriate price increases to offset the cost of inflation, the cost of OEM production's scheduled volatility, and lower fixed cost absorption on lower light vehicle build. These negotiations are ongoing, and there is no assurance we'll be able to complete them successfully. But this is a backdrop. We expect to sell 15 to 16 point million wheels in 2023. Net sales are expected to be in the range of 1.6 to 1.7 billion, and value-added sales in the range of $755 to $815 million, resulting in adjusted EBITDA of $170 to $200 million. The associated adjusted EBITDA margin expressed as a percent of value-added sales, expected to be 23 to 25 percent. Cash flow from operations is expected to be in the $110 to $130 million range a decrease from 2022 primarily because of higher debt service costs. With respect to capital expenditures, we plan to invest $70 million in our business this year, including some carryover from 2022 as we continue to strategically invest in our business, especially finishing capabilities. This amount of spend, however, will depend in part on the evolution of the business environment during the year and our ability to continue to reduce capital intensity and therefore capital expenditures. We model a 20% to 30% effective tax rate for 2023. In closing, Superior delivered very solid financial results in 2022, notwithstanding extremely challenging business conditions, and we attracted $400 million of capital to our company. Enterprise cost improvement and continuous improvement programs continue to mature and increasingly are delivering cost reductions. Our commercial and procurement organizations protected the company's margins from cost increases, and the men and women who make our wheels effectively manage the OEM production volatility. Our disciplined operating teams and the operating leverage in this business, taken together with our premium wheel making capabilities, and therefore our product portfolio positions us well for the future, especially if light vehicle production recovers. Mashi and I are most happy to take your questions. Caroline?

Sure. Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. We will take the first question from line Mike Ward from Benchmark. The line is for now. Please go ahead.

Thanks very much. Good morning, everyone. Maybe we can start off. Good morning. Your margin assumptions in North American Europe seem to be well below what IHS is looking for. And I'm just curious, is that something you're hearing from your customers, or is that just being conservative on your part?

Mike, I think your question is not related to margins. I think it's related to growth outlook, correct? Correct.

What did I say? Margin? I meant your market, industry environment, industry production. I'm sorry.

No worries. Listen, Mike, you'd only have... You know, we have been using, you know, multiple sources to, you know, put our plans in place. IHS is just about one of them. IHS is predicting 5% a year. And, you know, the last three years, they have been off. So we tend to pay close attention to our customer schedule. We call them call-offs, what we see. I personally, you know, talk to a lot of the leaders in the industry. And Mike, I would tell you, you know, at this point, there is no conviction at a high level about how industry production will play out. I mean, we are in a third year, talking about the automotive industry, third year at recession level demand. And there is no recession. Car prices now today are up 28%. So you've got a massive affordability factor. The average payment is $750. That's up 35% versus what people used to pay not too long ago. So, I mean, people would argue that these types of macro factors will weigh in on demand, and some would say that you're looking at a $15 million dollar. inventory is up right yeah demand is there but inventory is up so we're very concerned uh we're not seeing it from our customers uh we're still still seeing the volatility we're still seeing the choppiness uh the rest of uh you know the leadership in the industry is very skeptical we have always taken a cautious approach last year's guidance this time we did the year before we did And we're going to continue to do the same thing. So we're thinking Europe is going to continue to be challenged. And North America will be flat. But, Mike, this is really about planning for our business, right? You know, our guy does. Hey, if it comes, you have a fantastic business here. I mean, I don't know. It's a nice problem. When we make wheels, guess what we do? We make money. So... So we are hopeful that the high end of the guide and that that 5% that IHS is talking about will come to pass.

Okay. And then if you look at the European business in the fourth quarter, were your unit shipments positive to the vehicle manufacturers and negative to the aftermarket? Is that why we saw on a unit basis underperformance relative to the market? Yeah.

Yeah, the unit story in Europe is cloudy, right? Last year, we had a fantastic year with the aftermarket. Our aftermarket business was up 35%. And that's largely, as you know, because of all the statistics and supply chain issues from Thailand and China. So this year, it's reversed the other way around. Now, I would tell you, Mike, I think in terms of how our business does from a growth standpoint. We like to look at our sales, our value added sales, and the content. The content story of this company is phenomenal, right? If you go to chart 11, 33% growth in content every year, right? We've been very consistent with our strategy. It's about certain products. We're following certain macro trends, flat weighting, larger wheels. in the numbers if you don't want to use content per wheel use growth over market you look at versus what this company was in 21 we're up 20 you look at the whole year even though we're up we had a fantastic growth year in 21 you know this year just alone excluded the 20 growth in 21 we're still growth above market company so the unit the unit is cloudy and the growth global market narrative for our company is not very clear on a quarterly basis. You need more than a quarter.

Yeah, yeah. Now, I assume the content, the value added content per wheel on the aftermarket side is lower than OE.

Slightly.

Okay. And just one last question. When you look, Tim, on your charts, when you had the bridge on the EBITDA There were two things you mentioned, the lower customer recoveries. Is there a way, I assume that like on the fourth quarter, the 7 million metal timing, where the volume price next to 8 million, are the recoveries netted out against that? And so when you say that recoveries will be lower in 2023, can you put any numbers around that?

So the recoveries, just so you know, Mike, are banned in the performance category, okay, the customer recoveries.

Okay.

And let me give you some color here on this. For commercial and other reasons, not the least of which is that the negotiations that we have with our customers with respect to the costs that we believe are subject to recovery And the time period for which we are seeking those recoveries is not specific in the negotiations. The way the negotiations end up is they devolve into an amount and there isn't any specificity really with respect to which cost they pertain to and frankly which time period. Some of the recoveries that we experienced in 2022 actually relate to costs that were incurred in 2021. Now, it's not a lot. The line is sure it was 2022, but for sure, our performance in this year in 22 was boosted somewhat because of this mismatch in costs versus recoveries in the period in which they occurred. Now, to your point about 2023, As I mentioned, we have now pivoted in our discussions with the customers to instead of one-off recoveries of cost efficient, incorporating into the pricing in the wheels an appropriate amount, an amount that reflects the inherent increased costs in our cost structure, labor, material, energy, especially with respect to Europe, and frankly, the fact that they're building 15 to 20% fewer vehicles. Those dialogues are ongoing with respect to both the energy and the real price ups for the rest of the cost inflation. And I would suggest to you that the best way to sort of get a handle on where we think all of that will end up is to use our guidance as a barometer, a measurement. So, you know, at $755 million to $815 million of value added sales, You know, assuming that we continue to be successful with respect to our commercial activities, we would expect a margin of between, let's say, 23 and 25%. Now, having said that, I do expect that we're going to see some lumpiness from quarter to quarter as these negotiations are completed. So, you know, we'll have some variation, I expect, from quarter to quarter.

Okay, thank you. That's very helpful. Really appreciate that, Tim. Thank you very much.

Thanks, Mike. Thank you. We will take the next question from line Gary Prestopino from Barrington Research. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, everyone. Hi, Gary. Can you give us some idea with the new facility what your annualized interest expense is going to run at?

Sure. The pricing, Gary, is SOFR, which today is about 450 basis points, plus 800 basis points. So that's 12.5%. Now, importantly, a year ago, we had the foresight to enter into 250 million of interest rate swaps at 300, SOFR 300. So we are getting some benefit. directionally today, about $4 million a year benefit from those swaps, 150 basis points on $250 million of swaps. So I would say if you wanted to pick a number, setting aside future Fed rate increases, I'd use 12%.

On the 12% on, I mean, on the total debt? I mean, that's a lot there. I mean, all I'm really looking for is just what kind of jump are we looking at year over year?

All right. So it would be absent the swaps on the term loan, about $25 million, but because the swaps are in place at current super, you can think of about $20 million, 2-0.

Okay. So that's... That's not incremental. That's just a total amount of, well, that would be kind of an increase in interest expense year over year?

$20 million incremental. Now, that assumes no further, that assumes Jerome Powell doesn't raise the Fed funds rate, which probably is a little bit of a valid assumption. But again, the good news is any increase in the Fed fund rate, which you know, ends up manifesting itself in SOPR, $250 million of the $400 million is insulated from the SWOT, so it would only impact $150 million of the debt.

Okay. And then a couple more questions here. You know, you've got kind of a very sanguine outlook for this year, and I'm understanding fully the, you know, the puts and takes and the challenges, but Everybody I speak to in the industry is saying that they're seeing a betterment or improvement, at least on the retail side. Inventories are moving up. Sales are still pretty good. So far in Q1, is your sanguine outlook coming out to play in what you're generating in terms of units and sales?

Gary, it's a tough call. I do understand your There's a lot of noise actually, Gary, right? There is variation in the impact of what we just talked about. with affordability and vehicles and type of production. There's variation in customers. You look at Ford schedules, what they're facing. You've heard Nissan announce, you know, a shutdown of a plant in Mexico. You know, it's all public. GM shut down their Fort Wayne plant. GM shut down their Corvette plant because of supply chain issues. The Fort Wayne plant shutdown was presumably because of inventory. Ford got issues that are very public. You know, you talk to everybody, and I said, like, I said, I talked to my colleagues in the industry, and at the very highest level, there is no conviction about how this will play out. It's great. It's very fun. So we're taking a conservative approach. We are seeing a lot of choppiness in the schedule. It's not at the same level as it was 12 months ago, but it's still problematic. And what's unique about it is the variation between customers. So it very much depends on our customer base. But again, the guide is showing growth, and I'm hopeful that this is the year we're on.

Well, I mean, we hope so, too. I mean, you're not really looking at any kind of betterment in your financials based on the guidance you're giving. And it just appears that the industry probably bottomed in 2022 and is starting a slow movement higher. All right, so let me just ask another thing. I'm trying to get a handle on these cost recoveries here. You know, you're saying these negotiations are ongoing, but again, it would appear that the peak levels of inflation and input costs and whatever are in the rearview mirror. And, you know, as you're going into 2023 or in 2023, Can you just help us out there with this whole issue where you're trying to get cost recoveries from the clients, your end users? And, you know, it's obviously going to affect your margins. And then I guess, you know, to date, how well has that been going?

So, Gary, let me speak to this, and Tim can pick up, okay? So, the cost recovery story, as you can imagine, with everybody, it's complex. It's multifaceted, okay? Really, two points I want to make with you. Number one is, at the highest level, okay, at the highest level, the company's normalized margin is what Tim mentioned, is 23% to 25%. And from there, you can back into what recoveries were in the year, what recoveries were in prior years. But the second point, I think, is more clear. So for us, Terry, cost recovery is multi-pronged. But you look at the details, you look at the bridges Tim showed you, 80% to 85% of the year-on-year recoveries are commodities. You could back into anywhere between $240 to $280 million, Terry. All that, as you see in Tim's bridges, 85% of our recovery is either aluminum or aluminum additives or silicons. That leaves you with a balance, which is the dialogues we have with customers. On the rest, call it the 15-10, a little bit more maybe. And that's non-commodity inflation, including energy. And by the way, Tim has been consistent in the last few calls. We have fared very well on energy because we hedged. We did a good job of hedging energy in 2022. And then what's left there is paint. and other obviously labor and manufacturing costs. And the third piece of that, you know, the 15 to 20% is volatility and cancellation. So what we're telling you is the 85% was indexed. You know, it's been indexed. Our work with customers was on the 15%. We have fared well. We have to shift some of that focus now from one-time recoveries to putting it in the piece price. And yes, there are some carryover from 21 that we're saying is not carried into 23.

So, Mashi, I can't really improve on that, but I would like to for a moment, Gary, if I may, just go back to your previous question, which is the guide in 2023 vis-a-vis the company's performance in 2022. And I think you made reference to how it compares to certain other companies. As we've said, our performance in 2022 was somewhat boosted by customer recoveries that were really associated with 2021. I think if you go back and you compare the company's performance last year, 2022, compared to 2021, as compared to our peers, you'll find that we, for the most part, outperform because of those that mismatches the customer recoveries. A better comp is really 23 compared to 21, vis-a-vis our peers. And I think you'll see that we still compare very reasonably in that regard. So that's a roundabout way of saying 2022 was a little unusual.

Okay. I guess my way of thinking is that you're so specialized, high amount of technology in what you're producing in the wheels that you have. and that, you know, you should have some modicum of success because of your portfolio and your technologies in getting these cost recoveries because, you know, where else would the OEMs turn to?

You know, Gary, that is a great point. That is, we see ourselves as competitively advantaged in many ways. We have the technology. We have the portfolio. We have a team that is executing on all cylinders, frankly. And guess what? We have what we believe to be the most competitive, unique footprint in the industry. Gary, if you look at just this industry from a low-cost standpoint, you could argue that Of all the capacity in North America, remember 50% of wheels come from China with 27% duties. If you look at only the capacity in Mexico, we have 50% of the wheel capacity in Mexico. You could look at North America, that's 30%. That's a competitive advantage in a world where the customers are trying to localize. Now, I shipped you over to Europe, and I don't know if you caught any of my comments. But last month, the EU Commission imposed duties on wheels coming out of Morocco, in addition to duties that were on wheels coming out of China. So obviously, Morocco was a concern for us, right, from a pricing standpoint. So now we're back to where we were three years ago. And it just so happens that 90% of my capacity in Europe is in low cost. It's in Poland. If you assume Poland and the Czech Republic are low cost, In Turkey, we have 25% of the low-cost capacity in Europe. So we have the product, we have the technology, we have the competitive cost, and then now we have very much a differentiated footprint where we expect to be the tailwind of that. And you're right, the dialogues with customers are dialogues with a supplier that they value very much. And they're collaborative dialogues. But we also have to demonstrate to our customers that we help ourselves when we can. So I'm very, I will tell you, I'm very encouraged with how constructive the dialogues have been and our prospects for 23.

Okay, thank you.

Welcome, Gary.

Thanks. Thank you. There's no further questions, so I will hand back over to host Mashti Abulaban to conclude today's conference. Thank you.

Mashti Abulaban Thank everyone for joining our call today. In closing, I am very encouraged by our results this quarter and throughout the year. We look forward to continuing to execute on our strategic priorities, delivering long-term profitable growth. To the superior team, I am very proud of what we have accomplished. Thank you for your perseverance, hard work, and execution during these challenging times. Thanks again for joining the call and have a nice day.

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