speaker
Ana Barthezayi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Good morning and welcome to Grupo Superviel's third quarter 2025 firm's call. I'm Ana Barthezayi, Treasurer and IRO. Today's conference call is being recorded. For the Q&A session, please ensure your full name appears on Zoom. You can ask questions by voice or through the Q&A box. Speaking today are Patricio Superviel, our chairman and CEO, and Mariano Biglia, our CFO. We're also pleased to welcome Alejandro Caterbar, President of Polarquía Consultores, one of Argentina's leading political analysts, who will briefly share his perspectives on the post-election political and reform outlook. Gustavo Paco Manrique, Banco Supervivencia, and Diego Pizzulli, CEO of Invertir Online, will also be available during the Q&A session. Before we begin, please note this call may include forward-looking statements. Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filing for further details.

speaker
Patricio Superviel
Chairman and CEO

Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today. Let me begin with a broader macro perspective, which is quite encouraging. Following the recent midterm elections, Argentina is entering a new era. The path toward normalization and reform is gradually taking shape. and the financial system is poised to play a critical role in enabling this transition. We see the expansion of credit and a more dynamic banking sector as essential drivers of sustained economic recovery and inclusive growth. In this new environment, we are committed to returning to deliver profitability and sustain long-term value. and we are doing so supported by strategic initiatives that continue to unlock the full value of our franchise. While we are optimistic about the future, the most recent quarter presented some challenges. Systemic pressures and a very tight monetary policy characterized by unsustainably high real interest rates and historic reserve requirements ahead of the elections had a severe impact on economic activity and particularly the entire banking sector. This dynamic significantly compressed financial margins and constrained lending capacity. As a result, we recorded a net loss of Argentine's 50.3 billion pesos in third quarter 2025. Encouragingly, we are now beginning to see early signs of stabilization. Post-election confidence is improving interest rates have declined sharply with room for additional reduction. and monetary conditions are slowly easing. As we consider what these early improvements may signal for the broader environment, Alejandro Katterberg will briefly discuss the political landscape and what's ahead for the government reform agenda. But first, let me quickly walk you through a few highlights from the quarter on the following slide. starting with loan growth, which remained solid, up 8% in real terms, slightly ahead of the system. Growth was led by the corporate segment, while retail declined slightly as we further tightened origination standards. Asset quality weakened as expected, with the NPL ratio rising to 3.9%, mainly driven by the retail side. However, Our NPL share of individuals remains below our retail loan share, highlighting our focus on payroll and pension customers. On the funding side, deposit growth was strong, up 15% quarter-on-quarter in real terms, and over 40% year-on-year. Dollar deposits climbed to another record high, up 31% sequentially. A remunerated account strategy continues to gain traction and helping deepen planned relationships. Profitability was most impacted, mainly due to margin compression and a higher cost of risk. Partially mitigating this, we maintain a tight control on cost, which declined 2% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-to-date in real terms. We maintain a sound capital base to support growth as monetary policy continues to ease and loan demand resumes. Our CTR1 ratio reached 13.2% at quarter end and rose to 14.5% in October, supported by lower deferred asset tax deductions. We are on track with executing our strategies, scaling our super app, enhancing customer engagement and expanding cross-sell opportunities, particularly at YOL, where we saw another strong quarter of volume and free growth. While the quarter had its challenges, we are focused on controlling what we can control and continue to invest in our business to further advance our competitive position and ensuring long-term success. With that, I'll hand it over to Mariano to go deeper into our financial performance and perspectives.

speaker
Mariano Biglia
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Patricio, and good day to all. Our third quarter results were heavily impacted by temporary macro and regulatory headwinds, which drove a 43% sequential decline in net financial income. With one-day interest rates increasing to a peak of over 90% and 150% when adjusted by reserve requirements, funding costs increased by $56 billion. Deposit rates adjusted almost immediately, while long repricing lags due to longer duration, creating a temporary squeeze on spreads. Additionally, local market volatility ahead of the midterm elections impacted bond prices, resulting in and weaker investment portfolio yields. In parallel, the central bank raised minimum reserve requirements by over 23 percentage points and moved compliance from a monthly average to a daily basis, further tightening liquidity, which had a negative impact of nearly 21 billion pesos. The sharp rise in real interest rates generated a negative spread on our UVA mortgage portfolio, which impacted financial margin by close to 18 billion pesos. As a result, our peso NIM declined to 11.7% and total NIM fell to 10.8%, down 1,100 basis points and 1,000 basis points respectively, quarter over quarter. Let's now turn to the next slide to review our 2025. Turning to slide five, we are resetting our expectations for full year 2025. We now anticipate real loan growth of between 35 to 40% led by corporate lending with retail gradually resuming growth as disposable income improves. Deposits are forecast to grow 30% to 35%, with faster share gains in U.S. dollar-denominated deposit prices. Regarding asset quality, we now expect an NPL ratio between 4.7% to 5.1%, reflecting asset quality trends among consumers and the result of the more challenging environment in recent months. Consequently, net cost of risk is now projected at 5.8%, to 6.3%. NIN is now anticipated between 15 to 18% as high interest rates and reserve requirements through late October wait on 4Q results. Turning to slide six, we now forecast net fee income growth of 5% in real time. We are reinforcing our focus on operational efficiencies including reductions in headcount and non-SAS expenses. We now expect operating expenses in real terms to decline 8% to 10%. We now expect full-year ROE to range between negative 5% and 0%. Lastly, we anticipate ending the year with a CET1 ratio between 12.5% and 13.5%. Looking ahead, we intend to provide a 2026 preliminary outlook of key variables early next year, once there is greater clarity around reserve requirements, liquidity conditions, economic activity, and the broader macroeconomic framework. Additional details on our quarterly performance and outlook are available in the appendix of our earnings presentation. This concludes our prepared remarks. We are pleased to welcome Alejandro Ketterberg for a brief overview of Argentina's political outlook before we move to Q&A.

speaker
Alejandro Katterberg
President of Polarquía Consultores

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for the invitation, Patricio. Thank you for having me here. Thank you people for joining. My idea is just to give a brief analysis of what happened or what the election gave us and what are the scenarios that we should start thinking from now on for Argentina.

speaker
Alejandro Katterberg
President of Polarquía Consultores

I would like to make basically four points and then, I don't know if we have time for Q&As, happy to answer. Number one is that after a year of huge volatility, uncertainty, a big number of self-inflicted mistakes and damage by the government, it ended up quite positive for the government. Of course, as you know, the election ended up being better than expected a few weeks or months before the election, probably worse than what the government would have got if they decided to follow a different strategy and path by the beginning of the year. But that is in the past. But basically, with the result of the election, the government had a huge opportunity to begin the second stage of their administration with a lot of in control, in political control, and with huge opportunities in front of them. A few numbers of trends have been confirmed by what happened this year, especially in the elections. It's something that some of you hear me before saying is that we have a confirmation that we have a huge change in the political cycle. The political cycle that lasts for 20 years and that was basically dominated by the Kirchner and the other hand of the same coin, Macri, was over in 2023. This election cycle basically confirmed that. We no longer had Juntos por el Cambio. All of the parties that were part from Juntos por el Cambio suffered huge or very bad electoral results. The Radical Party performer got less than 1% at the national state. They lost a huge number of seats in the Congress. Qualifio Civica led by Elisa Carbio, they had extremely bad results. They lost four of the seats they controlled in the House. The pro-party in the provinces that they run outside La Libertad Avanza, they performed very badly. Clearly, that idea that we have, and I've been saying that there wasn't before and after 2023, has been consolidated with this electoral cycle. We are seeing the implosion of the political parties at the national level, or the traditional political parties. We are seeing the implosion of the disappearance and the loss of influence of the leaders that dominate Argentina over the last 20 years. I'm talking about Mauricio Macri and Cristina Kirchner. We are seeing a huge fragmentation and atomization of politics in Argentina. As a consequence of all of that, we are seeing a greater crawl from the governors. and the provinces. The governors and the provinces are becoming the main players besides, of course, La Libertad Avanza and Javier Vile. And that is changing Argentina's economy and politics. And I believe this trend will continue and we are moving forward to a different organization of politics with a much more fragmented distribution of power with the governors and the provinces becoming more having higher degrees of autonomy, less constrained by the national political leaders. And, of course, that correlates with some economic pressure we are having in Argentina with this or many of these provinces starting to receive investments in the extractive industries for the first time in their history. And finally, as a consequence of all of this, we have seen a consolidation of Javier Millet and La Libertad Avanza, and especially the decisions that the president took After the victory, the changes within the government that the president made after the victory clearly sends the signal that he is concentrating most of the power that somehow he had delegated in other advisors like Guillermo Franco, Santiago Caputo, and the key post in the government is being fulfilled by Karina Villay-Pipul and Javier Villay himself. So that is the broader picture of the things and the trends we have seen after the election. Number three, going to the Congress that we're going to see from December 10 in a few days from now, and the agenda that is coming. You have probably read this, but there was a huge change and some positive surprises, especially in the Senate, because all of the tight race, most of the tight race, end up being in the favor of La Libertad Avanza. So La Libertad Avanza end up getting three extra senators that better than what we thought, and the Peronists end up losing three extra senators out of the expectation. So the Peronists went from 34 senators to 28. That is a key difference. key piece of information, guys, because the Senate has always been the most difficult part of the political system in Argentina to go through reforms. The Peronists has always been traditionally dominated by the Peronists because the Peronists traditionally dominate the provinces and the small provinces. Since the Peronists are losing the provinces, as I said before, are fading away, That translates into the Senate, and the number of seats that the parent is now controlling the Senate is no longer the majority. At some point, they may even lose the first minority. So it opened the door for the Senate to approve reforms. La Libertad Avanza until today has six senators plus nine from the pro, 15 in total. They go from six to 21. The pro go from nine to five, so they go from 15 to 26 senators. They need to get 11 senators to get the majority. And basically, those 11 senators are very easy to reach. They need to make agreements with a number of governors that are willing to collaborate with the government and with and are willing to vote for many of the results. There is a, how do you call, the chair game in which now the government has more chairs than, there are more governors than chairs, no? So the governor will have the incentives to collaborate, and I don't find any difficulty, or I don't expect any difficulty for the government to be able to gather a majority in the Senate during the summer. the reforms. In the House, the picture is quite similar. La Libertad Avanza has from 44 to 91, plus 18 from the pro, so there are only 20 seats away from having the majority in the House, and there is 46 seats in the hands of the governors who they could easily reach agreements to get to that term. So, the Reform seasons will start in a few weeks from now. The government will be able to approve for the first time in the administration their budget. So, like Millet and La Libertad Avanza ran the country the last two years without a budget. Next year, we will have a budget being approved by the Congress. And a big number of reforms will be discussed. Basically, some labor reforms, some tax reforms, some... Other reforms regarding, for example, criminal policies or judicial things or many other aspects, many of the things that were left behind in the Bassett's Law that year are going to be put back on the table. Other issues like the glacier law will probably be discussed. There is a high probability that could be approved that is critical for the mining industry because basically they will send the decisions regarding glaciers policy to the provinces of each province deciding what to do with that. And on top of that, we have other reforms coming, institutional reforms that will be very important. The most important of all, the government will have a new chance to complete the Supreme Court and to nominate some new judges into the Supreme Court. So I do expect that this, or most of this reform will be approved during the summer. I don't know if one of them or the other will be At some point I think they are relevant and they change and increase productivity in the long term in Argentina, but also what happens with economic policies and the normalization of the economy, interest rates and all of the stuff are as relevant as the reforms coming from the Congress. Finally, my last comment. is that I have received many questions from clients and from investors like you guys saying, well, listen, Ale, I have saw this picture before. I have saw this movie before. In 2017, Macri won the midterm selection with almost the same amount of support and votes that Millet got and almost exactly in the same provinces that Millet won last month. So we all know what happened with Magri a few months after he won the midterm election. And I have to say that I find some differences this time with the previous time. And most of the differences, I think, place on the favor of Xavier Millet or that the chances at this time worked out better. On the economic side, clearly by this time, Millet has done the dirty work, and the fiscal adjustment is already done. Mauricio Macri got to the midterm elections without having done the fiscal adjustment, and he was forced to do it after the 2018 crisis. The adjustment in relative prices clearly has been probably better or has moved faster than what Macri was able to do by 2017. We have a good emerging markets environment right now. Markley, two months after winning the midterm election, faced one of the toughest drought in the agriculture sector, while Clay is gonna face one of the greatest harvest in two or three months from now. Markley, by this time, has used all of the markets, or has, how do you say, consumed all of the access to the market. Millet has not. They've been able to go back to the markets. They will go back to the markets probably starting next year. By this time, Macri had an energy deficit of more than $5 billion. Argentina now, because of how Baca Amor is producing, has a surplus of energy accounts by more than $7 billion. That is on the economic side. On the political side, clearly, Millet is facing a weaker economy. and a much weaker Cristina of that Macri was facing. Millet has a very favorable Senate, much more favorable than what Macri had, even though the House was more easy for Macri than for Millet. But on the whole, I think the chances to move forward with the reforms should be easier now for Millet than what it was for Macri after the 2017 election. We have governors who have a more important role and have the incentive to collaborate with the government because basically they don't have another place to go right now. We have an administration and probably a president that is much more committed into pushing the reforms and going deeper with surplus than what Magri was. Magri and Millet still had very similar public opinion support by this time. November survey and the Trust and Confidence Index that I do for Universidad de Tela increased 16% this month. Millet approval rating went up six points this month. So basically, we are going back to the numbers that we have seen around June, July this year before the whole deterioration process started. We have not reached the highest point that Milley was able to achieve by the beginning of 2025, but clearly after the election, Milley recovered almost all of the deterioration that he suffered during the last three or four months of huge uncertainty. And in top of all of that, besides the economy and the political considerations, we have something that could be a game changer. or it is a name changer, and that is the full support in economical terms and in political terms of the U.S. government and President Trump. So all of that context, in my opinion, creates the conditions to make the story or the probabilities of Milley to move forward and have a third year of administration clearly better than what Mauricio Macri had as a third year. So, for me, Argentina and the government has a huge opportunity in front of us. I hope that the government and the president have learned from the mistakes he made in the last few months and some of the mistakes he made in the first year of his administration. I hope that this time he push for good judges to go to the Supreme Court. I hope that this time he's able to, or he deliver on the promises and the agreement that he made with the governors. I hope that this time he's able to change part of his narrative style and the way he communicate and his constant aggression against some of the independent media. But to put it in a simple way, I think it's up to the government and up to MILE not to lose this opportunity. So, with that said, Ana, thank you very much.

speaker
Ana Barthezayi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Thank you, Alejandro. At this time, we are conducting the Q&A session. Remember that to ask a question, you can press your raise your hand button or write it on the Q&A panel. The first question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America. Hello, good morning, Ernesto. Please go ahead.

speaker
Ernesto Gabilondo
Bank of America Analyst

Thank you, Ana, and hi, good morning, Patricio, Paco, Mariana, and good morning, Alejandro, and thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. My first question will be on your long-run expectations. You have guided between 35%, 40% this year. I know that you don't have a guidance for next year yet, but can you give us some color on what are your growth expectations per segment? And maybe Alejandro can also add into this question. Can you share the names and amounts of private investments announcements so far so we can detect the potential lending activity in the different regions and sectors? And then my second question is on your ROE expectations. You have mentioned to expect an ROE between minus 5% to 0% this year. And again, you will provide guidance next year. But any color on how should we think about the ROE next year, just the general trends, high single digit or low double digit, I think will be very helpful. Thank you.

speaker
Patricio Superviel
Chairman and CEO

Good morning, Ernesto. Thank you for your questions. I'll take it first and then be complimented probably by Mariano. In terms of loans, loan growth this year was constrained by tight monetary conditions. I think the midterm reductions, we see the first signs of a turn. Real rates are falling, reserve requirements easing, and credit demand improving. In 4Q 2025 and early 2026, we see growth coming mainly from corporates and SMEs, particularly in the oil and gas chain, with retail coming and maybe probably later picking up in the second quarter of 2026 as rates and employment conditions improve. In terms of if, let's say, of all what we heard from Alejandro in terms of macro reforms and the deflation continues, we see real loan growth in 2026 reaching in the area of 30 to 40%. That's, I think, in terms of loan growth. To fund this growth, by the way, let me add that our strategy of remunerated accounts for corporates and payroll plans have been also now extended to the entire yield ecosystem. This will strengthen our funding base. And I think it anticipates what Fintechs will do when they start to play like Mercado Pago. So, I think it's the right move. So, in short, corporate and SME lending will lead to recovery and resume out of second year 26. And we think that 2026 will be a strong year. Do you want to compliment something on loans? And then in terms of ROE for 2026, We have a long-term view which is constructive, and particularly so after the outcome of the midterm elections. So, but there are several drivers that support a positive trajectory for us in terms of starting in 2026 and extending beyond. The first one is the re-leveraging, the gradual re-leveraging of banks. And this is, of course, connected to the reforms that are implemented by the government to expect improving consumer confidence, disposable income, and also an increase in money demand by other Argentines. And I think that we can expect also that with money demand, there will be lower liquidity requirements as of 2026, creating more room to leverage and to expand. Also, we plan, we will be looking to international markets if conditions are there to tap the debt. We are doubling down on cost controls to lift operating leverage, and we are also, as I mentioned before, advancing on strategic initiatives such as the remunerated account, and now extended to the entire oil ecosystems. All of these with, let's say, focus on growth, better asset liability management, and brilliant underwriting, I think will give us the way to improve ROE. Importantly, we are investing for the long term, and we are conscious that certain initiatives have longer paybacks. but they are designed to build durable earnings power for our franchise. So while the path to 15% and 20% ROE may be extended, we are building all the necessary blocks basically to put it in place. And we believe that as leverage normalizes and reform takes traction, SuperVL can converge with ROE levels in line with peers in the region.

speaker
Diego Pizzulli
CEO of Invertir Online

I think I might also ask about some big initiatives that Argentina has for the next year.

speaker
Ernesto Gabilondo
Bank of America Analyst

With all the investments, the private investments that have been announced so far in the different regions and sectors, I think it will be very helpful.

speaker
Alejandro Katterberg
President of Polarquía Consultores

Ernesto, I don't have the expertise of others, especially the mining big projects that have been going on, but clearly when you look at The geography and the political geography of Argentina, what we are seeing is a rapid change in the economic dynamics. I mean, provinces that have basically traditionally lived from public funds that were receiving from federal co-participation, now has started to receive direct investment and direct projects that are becoming a reality. So, for example, provinces in the whole north, you go to Jujuy, you go to Salta, Rioja, San Juan, Catamarca, we all pick mining projects from silver to gold to lithium. Mendoza, who has been a province that traditionally has rejected mining because They are more concerned about the impact of mining in tourism than in the wine industry, whatever. Finally, last year, Governor Cornejo has jumped into mining and basically has started Cooper Projects. As you all know, we have the same Andes as Chile, and I don't know, and nobody has found the reason why the Chilean side of the Los Andes could have huge reserves of Uber and not the Argentinian side. So Mendoza has done that. Neuquén and the south provinces of Patagonia with, of course, Patamuerta and the oil and gas industry. So in all of that, and on top of that, you have the traditional, all of the La Pampa region, you know, with color of Mendoza and all of the agricultural production it's about to have a good impact next year. So on general terms, the extractive industries are booming, are accelerating. Many rigid projects have been approved. And I think that we have an impact that the way I like to analyze Argentina, especially on the political and social side, is having an impact on the distribution of political power, and I think that trend will continue, even though we don't have delay or we have someone that's coming back, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And also, on the long-term view, we are seeing a shift in Argentina that is starting to distribute the power that it has, economic and political power that has been so concentrated in Buenos Aires and in La Pampa, more to the province.

speaker
Ernesto Gabilondo
Bank of America Analyst

Excellent.

speaker
Ana Barthezayi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

I'm sorry.

speaker
Patricio Superviel
Chairman and CEO

Let me add to Alejandro. With all these investments that are being announced by all the debt emissions by the oil and gas industry, they will have, as soon as they start being invested, all the value chains of these industries will start to move. So this will ignite both and loan demands precisely in the value chains that we are focusing because we, by the way, we just, we opened recently a branch in Aguilillo and another branch in where the ecosystem of mining in San Juan is. So even though we were present before, now we have a more direct presence and because we want to focus on that. But let me add something on the political side.

speaker
Alejandro Katterberg
President of Polarquía Consultores

Probably one of the things that will start showing up as a concern, and I tend to believe that will start to happen next year, as long as inflation demands or if people worry about inflation end up vanishing away, it has gone from by far being the number one problem to now being shared with another problem. What I tend to believe in the long term in Argentina will happen, and in many other countries, it's a labor problem. Also, probably what we will start seeing is from some sector of the society that will suffer from losing job in the unproductive industries in the suburbs of Buenos Aires City and jobs being created on the new provinces and I don't know how labor demanded are these industries. So if you wanna, if you ask me what consequence or what negative implications changes could have for this government on the next government, and also if you add artificial intelligence and the impact that that will have on labor as a general and globally, probably what we will start seeing next year or in the next or in the future years is that the problems and the tensions and the full tensions changes from related to inflation toward relating to employment generation.

speaker
Ernesto Gabilondo
Bank of America Analyst

Thank you very much, Alejandro. And just to follow up with Patricio on the ROE expectation, So you were mentioning the supervillage position for the long term, but the ROE of 15 to 20 may be extended. So considering what you posted or what you're cutting for this year, would it be reasonable to see around a single-digit ROE next year and then moving to your medium-term target by 2027, 2028?

speaker
Mariano Biglia
Chief Financial Officer

Hi, Ernesto. Yes, let me compliment on this. I think for next year, although we haven't given guidelines because we still want to see how the monetary policy, the augmentation works after the initials, but it's reasonable to think that we will reach our medium term target ROE for the end of next year, so for the full year, we will be on high single digits or low double digits, depending on the pace, on how fast the things that we need to happen evolve. That is, lower interest rate, we are already seeing that in November, which is an inflection point for interest rates. Also, minimum cash requirements. We are already seeing some flexibilizations with the last regulations and increasing non-remunerated cash requirements. There's still some way to go looking forward. Cash requirements are still on 50% level for site deposits, is extremely high, so we need that to continue easing. And then also preventing MPLs, we'll see what happens next year, that will allow us not only to reduce cost of risk, but to resume real growth on the retail side. And that is something that we think can happen when economic activity with a more loose monetary policy, with economic conditions improving, not only on an average for the country, but also across industry. We know there are some industries that are still lagging in the recovery of activity, and some of those industries have a lot of unemployment. So those dynamics should allow us to lower cost of risk, increase in retail, and again, with the lower of tax requirements, increase the weight of the loan portfolio in our balance sheet. That is what will lead us to our target for medium-term ROE. And depending on how fast that happens, we will be on lower single, double digits, or it takes more time on higher single digits.

speaker
Ernesto Gabilondo
Bank of America Analyst

Super helpful, Mariano, and happy Thanksgiving and holidays to everyone.

speaker
Alejandro Katterberg
President of Polarquía Consultores

Thank you, Ernesto.

speaker
Ana Barthezayi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Our next question comes from Brian Flores with CTEAM. Hello, good morning, Brian.

speaker
Brian Flores
CTEAM Analyst

Hi, Anna and Tim. Thank you for the opportunity. Two questions here. I think the first one is a bit on growth. You mentioned in the presentation that you want to achieve a more balanced loan mix between corporate and retail. You're probably prioritizing corporate, as you were mentioning, the strong demand and the unlocking of a lot of pent-up demand, perhaps. I just wanted to clarify if this means that corporate loans could reach around 50% of the loan mix in 2026. And also, naturally, this brings lower yields. So just wondering if we should see a recovery in risk-adjusted NIMS by the second half of 2026 perhaps. And then I'll ask my second question.

speaker
Patricio Superviel
Chairman and CEO

Thank you. We believe that the right approach, considering also the competitive landscape of NIMS new banks coming into the country, I mean, starting to work in the country, we believe that the right approach is to have a balanced approach in terms of serving enterprises, SMEs, and families or individuals. Having said that, loan demand will continue will resume as of 2 June 2026, or we believe it will resume with consumer confidence improving and better maybe disposable income for individuals. But to answer your question, Today, I think the balance between enterprises and individuals is tilted towards enterprises, corporations. So it means more than 50%. I believe that this will continue to be the case, in my opinion, maybe the first half of 2026. And then when we see the conditions for individuals and loan demand rising again, then it will probably go back to 50%, 50-50, or maybe higher. being optimistic at the end of the fourth quarter of 2026, being optimistic maybe more retail demand, so in order to have higher NIMS. I don't know if you want to complement the question.

speaker
Mariano Biglia
Chief Financial Officer

I think the weight of corporate and retail, that is very complete. What I can add, maybe... It's that on the corporate side, although maybe we expect it to be more balanced with retail for the end of next year, but also we can start to see maybe in the second half of the year a change in tenors because remember that right now, and this is true also across industry, almost all lending is for working capital. It's very short term. So what we could see happening next year is that we can see more long demand for longer term investments and not only working capital. So that will also help too.

speaker
Brian Flores
CTEAM Analyst

No, super clear. And then on risk-adjusted NIMS, should we think about, let's say, a U-shaped recovery by late 2026? As you mentioned, cost of risk coming down perhaps Is this maybe a correct observation, Mariano?

speaker
Mariano Biglia
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I think it can be earlier than that. As you know, with the expected loss model that is pro-cycle, we are already provisioning all the deterioration, even the only deterioration that we see, particularly in the written portfolio. So when we see conditions improving, Cost of risk should decrease very fast, and not only having to see an important recovery in real terms in the growth of the retail portfolio. So, in that case, we should be able to see a recovery with adjusted means for the retail portfolio, and that will also translate into the whole portfolio, maybe earlier in the year, and not having to wait for

speaker
Brian Flores
CTEAM Analyst

No, super clear. Thank you. And my second question is on risk management, because obviously we're all excited about the Argentina story. And I think Alejandro started saying that one of the key concerns that we receive, I think, is we have been here before. And Patricio, you mentioned a lot of optimism, right, in not only the political, but also I would say the economic landscape I just wanted to hear your thoughts on what if, right, what would happen if things do not go well, if, you know, the reset requirements remain high. Are there any considerations by you or the board regarding any alternatives, you know, could be partnerships, asset sales, M&A, if you know that the base case scenario does not pan out and we have, let's say, a less bullish scenario?

speaker
Patricio Superviel
Chairman and CEO

Well, yeah, I mean, the, I think that the real scenario that a lot of people are talking about is the policy the government is having in, about reserves, foreign reserves, and they are, I think, I think there is a certain risk that, for instance, you have a lot of people traveling abroad, spending money abroad, because you have the sensation that it's relatively cheap. And at the same time, the central bank is not building reserves. Well, I can understand the way, the reason, because they have the support of the USA and so on, but eventually things are volatile in the world, and that could potentially be a problem. I think, of course, they want to focus on inflation and make sure that rapidly inflation comes down, and this is why the I think we are keeping a tight control on effects. Regarding our franchise, I think what we're doing, we are working always to improve our resiliency in terms of the way we originate, the way our origination standards for individuals, We anticipated earlier than other banks that deterioration this year. So we are, I think we are good in this. And at the same time, since Paco came, arrived to the company, to the bank, he's implemented a complete reshuffle of the culture of the bank in order, basically, in order to become much more customer-centric and have people more accountable. So, we have people now that are completely engaged, aligned, and committed to going the extra mile. We are working. In the ecosystem, in our ecosystem, we have a very strong company in our own ecosystem, which is Inverteer Online, which is in the verge of the next stage of Inverteer Online because they already achieved something which is quite remarkable. They are the most and by far the biggest company This is turning broker in the country for retail investors. This is fantastic what they did in the last four years. They will maintain this. They are very efficient, and they have the scale and the technology, but now they will go to the second stage, which is to concentrate on wealthy people, wealthier and affluent people in enterprises, in IFAs, and they have the teams to do that, the engineers, and they will invest more on that to make sure that we get fast to this stage. And this this engine gives us the opportunity to do a fantastic cross-sell in order to acquire bank clients. So I think we are prepared for competition, we are prepared for what is coming, and we've lived for different previous prices and so on.

speaker
Diego Pizzulli
CEO of Invertir Online

Also, Patricio, we are always open to make some strategic alliances, so we are open. in order to find a new future for Argentina in our industry. So, yes, we are open. We are analyzing a lot of them, but basically also we have a conversation with a huge, retailers in order to make some strategic alliances. So, yes, we are open to understand the change, the transformation in the world about this industry. So, yes, we are open, and we want to make a new bank, a very attractive bank. So, yes, we are open for new businesses.

speaker
Brian Flores
CTEAM Analyst

Super clear. Thank you, Tim.

speaker
Ana Barthezayi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Thank you, Brian. Thank you, Brian. Maybe our next question comes from Camila Acevedo from UBS. The only thing maybe we need you to ask just one question because we are running out of time. So we still have two more questions to answer. But hello, morning, Camila.

speaker
Camila Acevedo
UBS Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. I'll keep it brief. I want to comment, I want you to address more on asset quality topics. So, could you please give more color about the NPL dynamics during the quarter? Do you think that the number seen in the quarter was the peak, or are you seeing any signs of peak? When should we expect it to happen in both segments? And which would be the comfortable coverage ratio level that you imagine, given this context?

speaker
Patricio Superviel
Chairman and CEO

Well, first of all, asset quality deterioration this quarter mirrors system-wide trends as the trend cycle adjusts to the macroeconomic environment. After a very unusually benign period of NPLs, low NPLs, there rose across existing and new customers driven by pressure on disposable income and tariff adjustments, and also the shift to an inflationary environment where debt no longer arose in real terms. This was most visible in retail. We had anticipated this iteration and tightening originating criteria in personal auto and car loans since the beginning of the year, and reporting collection and also client support. Unfortunately, the sharp pre-election rate hikes are the further stress. through our individual NPL shares, but our individual NPL share in the market remains below our retail loan share. So this is showing relative resilience. We believe that these NPLs are mandible. Going forward, I think we believe that this trend is manageable and we expect rather improvement as macro conditions and consumer confidence normalizes. I don't know if you want to add, Adriano, compliment?

speaker
Mariano Biglia
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I can just compliment on the MTL expectations. Maybe we can see a peak in the fourth quarter, as you know, roll over of early declaration comes MPL maybe at the end or during the fourth quarter and also when conditions improve and not only will see MPLs decreasing but also low growth increasing so that will also dilute MPL and we will see that number improving. for the impact of high interest rates on economic activity in the third quarter, which still can be a risk in the fourth quarter, and I think that will be the peak.

speaker
Camila Acevedo
UBS Analyst

Okay, super clear. Thank you. Yeah, the coverage ratio, please.

speaker
Mariano Biglia
Chief Financial Officer

And regarding the coverage ratio, as I mentioned before, we follow the expected loss models. So when MPLs are very low, coverage tends to go very high. In fact, in the past, we were about 200%. So now that those provisions are being used, so that's why we see the coverage increasing, but it should always remain about 100% So we should see it in a rate of 110, 120%.

speaker
Ana Barthezayi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Thank you, Camila. The next question comes from Ricardo Cabana with Itaú. Hello, good morning, Ricardo. Please go ahead.

speaker
Ricardo Cabana
Itaú Analyst

Yes, good morning, Ana and all. As I look into 2026, for me, it's not just another year. It has a big déjà vu situation. of Argentina of the 90s were positive expectations for credit, and credit to GDP was double where it stands. So my question would be, which are the new actions that you believe you still need to take, and which are the new risks that you think you still need to face in order to generate new results in a new and different environment? Perhaps the first question is if you agree with this possibility or with this positive outlook as well. Thank you.

speaker
Patricio Superviel
Chairman and CEO

I think that we need to make sure that there is, we need to make sure that we increase the leverage of the bank. This is a challenge for all banks, but in our case, it's our challenge. And I think that we will, it's clear that savings in Argentina is still a pending issue for Argentina. The share of savings of GDP is very, still very low. So, in order, we need to build a bridge in order to make sure that the bank gets leverage. And this bridge, I believe, will come in international markets. So we will be looking in order, we will tap international debt markets if conditions arise. And flavor of this is what we already did with the multilaterals, where we, 45 days ago, we got up to $270 million in terms of facilities, three years, from multilaterals, because we have a focus in SMEs. So, and another thing that, I think, for me, it's very interesting. I don't know whether it will happen or not. It's first in trying to repeat what we did in 2017, where we also tapped in a personal debt. This is not yet the case because there is not yet a market for Peso Link Debt, but we did this in 2017. And also something that maybe for the state, for this state is maybe a dream, but this is my dream at least. I think that if confidence is built in Argentina, then there will be a possibility of rotating assets. I mean, let's say doing, you know, between originating loans and maybe sell those loans to the local capital market or maybe international markets if there is a chance. This is something that could happen, and so we are always looking to this opportunity because this would be a fantastic way of growing without consuming capital.

speaker
Ricardo Cabana
Itaú Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much. Very interesting.

speaker
Ana Barthezayi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Thank you, Ricardo. I think we have the last questions come from Pedro of Encendent from Latin Securities. Hello, good morning, Pedro. How are you?

speaker
Pedro Encendent
Latin Securities Analyst

Hello. Hi, Ana. Thank you for the call. I had one question on how do you assess liquidity conditions in the system going forward, in the system and in the bank going forward? And if you see liquidity as a potential constraint for great growth in 2026?

speaker
Patricio Superviel
Chairman and CEO

As the monetary base remains very small, even in historical terms, we've already seen a rebound in money demand after the elections. This is key, the increase in money demand. system-wide deposit growth, and as confidence consolidates, we could expect that gradual lengthening of deposit duration. That is people investing in, more people investing in bank deposits. Another thing, another issue which is central also is the central bank. favoring financial intermediation because as of today, around 30 to 35% of the policies of the system come from market. And this is not normal. And if you want, if the central bank wants to, let's say, to favor credit to the private sector, then they need to go to eventually regulate differentiated reserve requirements to make deposits more attractive than money market funds. And for us to also to tackle the liquidity constraints, I think we have the right strategy because the rollout of the and cash management solutions and for corporate payroll accounts and all the entire ecosystem, I think positions as well to capture more stable and high quality deposits. And as I said before, finally, we will try to tap the international market if conditions arise.

speaker
Ana Barthezayi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Thank you, Pedro. So, I think we have some in the Q&A, but I think all of them were addressed. Ignacio from . I think all of them mainly were addressed. The rest of the KPIs in terms of guidance. We are going to provide them maybe at the beginning of the year formally. So we have more, as Mariano mentioned, clarity in terms of what happens with the requirements and rates as well. Then from a cap security, it's a killer thing. We already discussed about MPLs. And then in terms of shares canceled, they are automatically being canceled after three years of being in the treasury, held by the treasury. So I think by the end of the year, beginning this next year, 3% of the capital has been canceled, and that's not more than that. So I think With no more questions, I think we are right to the end of the Q&A session. Thank you all for joining us, a lot of people today. Sorry, we delayed a bit, and we know there is another call from another bank at the same time. So thank you all for joining.

speaker
Patricio Superviel
Chairman and CEO

I do appreciate your question. It was a difficult quarter, but it was an optimistic for 2026, and we do have the two

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