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Grupo Supervielle S.A.
11/26/2025
Good morning and welcome to Grupo Superviel's third quarter 2025 firm's call. I'm Ana Barthezayi, Treasurer and IRO. Today's conference call is being recorded. For the Q&A session, please ensure your full name appears on Zoom. You can ask questions by voice or through the Q&A box. Speaking today are Patricio Superviel, our chairman and CEO, and Mariano Biglia, our CFO. We're also pleased to welcome Alejandro Caterbar, President of Polarquía Consultores, one of Argentina's leading political analysts, who will briefly share his perspectives on the post-election political and reform outlook. Gustavo Paco Manrique, Banco Supervivencia, and Diego Pizzulli, CEO of Invertir Online, will also be available during the Q&A session. Before we begin, please note this call may include forward-looking statements. Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filing for further details.
Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today. Let me begin with a broader macro perspective, which is quite encouraging. Following the recent midterm elections, Argentina is entering a new era. The path toward normalization and reform is gradually taking shape. and the financial system is poised to play a critical role in enabling this transition. We see the expansion of credit and a more dynamic banking sector as essential drivers of sustained economic recovery and inclusive growth. In this new environment, we are committed to returning to deliver profitability and sustain long-term value. and we are doing so supported by strategic initiatives that continue to unlock the full value of our franchise. While we are optimistic about the future, the most recent quarter presented some challenges. Systemic pressures and a very tight monetary policy characterized by unsustainably high real interest rates and historic reserve requirements ahead of the elections had a severe impact on economic activity and particularly the entire banking sector. This dynamic significantly compressed financial margins and constrained lending capacity. As a result, we recorded a net loss of Argentine's 50.3 billion pesos in third quarter 2025. Encouragingly, we are now beginning to see early signs of stabilization. Post-election confidence is improving interest rates have declined sharply with room for additional reduction. and monetary conditions are slowly easing. As we consider what these early improvements may signal for the broader environment, Alejandro Katterberg will briefly discuss the political landscape and what's ahead for the government reform agenda. But first, let me quickly walk you through a few highlights from the quarter on the following slide. starting with loan growth, which remained solid, up 8% in real terms, slightly ahead of the system. Growth was led by the corporate segment, while retail declined slightly as we further tightened origination standards. Asset quality weakened as expected, with the NPL ratio rising to 3.9%, mainly driven by the retail side. However, Our NPL share of individuals remains below our retail loan share, highlighting our focus on payroll and pension customers. On the funding side, deposit growth was strong, up 15% quarter-on-quarter in real terms, and over 40% year-on-year. Dollar deposits climbed to another record high, up 31% sequentially. A remunerated account strategy continues to gain traction and helping deepen planned relationships. Profitability was most impacted, mainly due to margin compression and a higher cost of risk. Partially mitigating this, we maintain a tight control on cost, which declined 2% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-to-date in real terms. We maintain a sound capital base to support growth as monetary policy continues to ease and loan demand resumes. Our CTR1 ratio reached 13.2% at quarter end and rose to 14.5% in October, supported by lower deferred asset tax deductions. We are on track with executing our strategies, scaling our super app, enhancing customer engagement and expanding cross-sell opportunities, particularly at YOL, where we saw another strong quarter of volume and free growth. While the quarter had its challenges, we are focused on controlling what we can control and continue to invest in our business to further advance our competitive position and ensuring long-term success. With that, I'll hand it over to Mariano to go deeper into our financial performance and perspectives.
Thank you, Patricio, and good day to all. Our third quarter results were heavily impacted by temporary macro and regulatory headwinds, which drove a 43% sequential decline in net financial income. With one-day interest rates increasing to a peak of over 90% and 150% when adjusted by reserve requirements, funding costs increased by $56 billion. Deposit rates adjusted almost immediately, while long repricing lags due to longer duration, creating a temporary squeeze on spreads. Additionally, local market volatility ahead of the midterm elections impacted bond prices, resulting in and weaker investment portfolio yields. In parallel, the central bank raised minimum reserve requirements by over 23 percentage points and moved compliance from a monthly average to a daily basis, further tightening liquidity, which had a negative impact of nearly 21 billion pesos. The sharp rise in real interest rates generated a negative spread on our UVA mortgage portfolio, which impacted financial margin by close to 18 billion pesos. As a result, our peso NIM declined to 11.7% and total NIM fell to 10.8%, down 1,100 basis points and 1,000 basis points respectively, quarter over quarter. Let's now turn to the next slide to review our 2025. Turning to slide five, we are resetting our expectations for full year 2025. We now anticipate real loan growth of between 35 to 40% led by corporate lending with retail gradually resuming growth as disposable income improves. Deposits are forecast to grow 30% to 35%, with faster share gains in U.S. dollar-denominated deposit prices. Regarding asset quality, we now expect an NPL ratio between 4.7% to 5.1%, reflecting asset quality trends among consumers and the result of the more challenging environment in recent months. Consequently, net cost of risk is now projected at 5.8%, to 6.3%. NIN is now anticipated between 15 to 18% as high interest rates and reserve requirements through late October wait on 4Q results. Turning to slide six, we now forecast net fee income growth of 5% in real time. We are reinforcing our focus on operational efficiencies including reductions in headcount and non-SAS expenses. We now expect operating expenses in real terms to decline 8% to 10%. We now expect full-year ROE to range between negative 5% and 0%. Lastly, we anticipate ending the year with a CET1 ratio between 12.5% and 13.5%. Looking ahead, we intend to provide a 2026 preliminary outlook of key variables early next year, once there is greater clarity around reserve requirements, liquidity conditions, economic activity, and the broader macroeconomic framework. Additional details on our quarterly performance and outlook are available in the appendix of our earnings presentation. This concludes our prepared remarks. We are pleased to welcome Alejandro Ketterberg for a brief overview of Argentina's political outlook before we move to Q&A.
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