speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Good morning and welcome to Grupo Superdiel's fourth quarter 2025 for News Call. I'm Ana Bartizaghi, treasurer and IRO. Today's conference call is being recorded. For the Q&A session, please ensure your full name appears on Zoom. You can ask questions by voice or through the Q&A box. Speaking today are Patricio Superdiel, our chairman and CEO, and Mariano Biglia, our CFO. Gustavo Paco Manriquez, Banco Superdiel CEO and the OP ZULI, CEO of InvertitOnline, will also be available during the Q&A session. Before we begin, please note this call may include forward-looking statements. Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filing for further details.

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you Anna, good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today. In the fourth quarter we delivered results within our guidance range and positioned the balance sheet for industry recovery. The period was marked by elevated system-wide credit stress which we were not immune to. However, in several key areas we outperformed the industry. Let me walk you through the key drivers of our quarter results. First, loan growth continued to outperform the industry. Total loans grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year. Grow was led by corporates, which expanded 25% quarter-over-quarter and now represent 63% of the portfolio. Retail balances declined sequentially as we prioritized risk-adjusted returns and tightened underwriting in response to the more volatile environment. Second, asset quality reflect the peak of the stress cycle. The NPL ratio increased to 5%, consistent with indices trends. rapid loan growth since 2024, and the significantly restrictive monetary conditions early in the year. Costs of risk reached the upper end of our Gandel's range, also reflecting updated macroeconomic assumptions under IFRS 9. Third, funding remained resilient despite strategic deleveraging. Total deposits declined sequentially as we reduced wholesale institutional funding to optimize the balance sheet. In contrast, core transactional balances remained resilient. U.S. dollar deposits increased 42% year-over-year, gaining 60 basis points of market share, while remunerated accounts continued gaining traction among payroll and SME clients. Fourth, we reported an attributable net loss of Argentine's 19.5 billion, narrowing significantly from the third quarter loss. The improvement reflected margin recovery and strict cost control, despite elevated cost of risk based on updated macro assumptions and system-wide credit stress. Encouragingly, NIEM rebounded sequentially, supported by lower funding costs and better investment portfolio yields, while personnel expenses declined 6% sequentially. Importantly, CT1 strengthened to 15.4%, up 220 basis points, quarter over quarter, preserving flexibility for 2026 growth. In sum, fourth Q25 was a transition quarter marked by strong long growth, peak cost of risk, margin recovery, and solid capital. Let me now turn to the broader environment. The fourth quarter marked the peak of an exceptionally tight monetary policy, followed by early signs of normalization after the mid-term elections. Leading up to the elections, high real interest rates and elevated reserve requirements significantly constrained liquidity across the financial system. While these measures helped stabilize the exchange rate and contain inflation, they weighed on margins, credit demand, and asset quality. Following the October elections, conditions began to improve. The strengthened legislative mandate reinforced the government's reformed agenda. Since then, we have observed declining interest rates, gradually improving liquidity, and a recovery in sovereign bond prices. And while reserve requirements remain elevated, they have started to ease. Looking into 2026, the foundation for financial recovery is in place. Fiscal discipline continues, FX reserve accumulation supports stability, and inflation should allow nominal rates to decline. As monetary conditions normalize, we expect economic activity to recover gradually, creating the basis for renewed credit expansion. Policy execution will remain critical. Maintaining disinflation, normalizing monetary conditions, and advising FX liberalization in an orderly manner are essential to consolidating recovery. If that path is maintained, we believe it should translate into lower volatility more stable funding conditions, and greater predictability for businesses and households. In that environment, a disciplined and well-organized banking system will play a central role, and we believe SuperVL is well-positioned to participate in that expansion. Let me briefly close with strategy. We continue executing on the roadmap presented last year, centered on profitable growth, targeted segments, and ecosystem integration. The core is a customer-centric and technology-enabled model. At the bank, our purpose is clear, to accompany customers in their daily lives with simple and agile financial experiences. That purpose guides the evolution of the SuperVille app as a true financial hub, integrating payments, savings, investments and services into a unified experience. More than 70% of transactions are digital. reinforcing both engagement and operating efficiency. Our AI-powered WhatsApp interactions and the integration of the SuperVL store with MercadoLibre expand distribution while preserving our tech and touch model. The remunerated account in pesos and US dollars for payroll and SME accounts continue to strengthen our funding base, deepen primary relationships, and increase client balances. Adoption has been solid, reinforcing the quality and stability of our deposit mix. Integration between the bank and the oil is accelerating. Cross-selling initiatives are bringing high-value brokerage clients into the banking platform while offering our banking base seamless access to investment products. At YOL, our strategic focus is clear. As Argentina's leading retail digital broker, YOL operates a scalable, technology-driven platform that allows us to grow assets and revenues with strong operating leverage. We see a significant opportunity in the development of the Argentina's domestic capital market, which remains at an early stage relative to the size of the economy and the financial savings potential. As macro conditions normalize, we expect deeper financial intimidation and greater participation in investment products. To capture that opportunity, we are focusing more on affluent clients, corporations and IFAs, segments that allow us to accelerate growth in assets under custody while enhancing the quality and stability of our revenue mix. Our objective is not only to grow accounts, but to scale assets under custody in a disciplined and profitable way, leveraging our digital capabilities, ecosystem integration with the bank, and a differentiated product offering across local and international markets. Looking ahead, our priorities align with Argentina's normalization cycle. At the bank, we are positioned to capture the next credit expansion as monetary conditions normalize and liquidity requirements ease. Supported by a strong capital base and disciplined risk management, we will scale corporate lending across the value chains of dynamic industries and selectively expand retail credit as consumer confidence strengthens. At the same time, we will continue reinforcing the SuperVL app as the core financial hub of our ecosystem, driving engagement, efficiency and operating leverage. At YOL, the opportunity is equally structural. As inflation declines and risk appetite returns, Argentina's domestic capital market has significant room to expand. Across both platforms, AI is becoming a transversal capability, enhancing productivity, optimizing processes, and elevating the client experience. With that, I will turn the call over to Mariano to review our financial performance in greater detail.

speaker
Mariano Biglia
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Patricio, and good day to everyone. Let's turn to slide 6. We reported an attributable net loss of nearly 20 billion pesos in the fourth quarter, improving materially from the 55 billion peso loss in the prior quarter. November marked a turning point, with declining rates supporting better margins toward year-end. Client-led financial income increased 21% sequentially, driven by lower funding costs combined with higher loan volumes and yields, despite a greater share of commercial loans in the mix. Market-related net financial income improved by 85 peso billion sequentially, reflecting lower funding costs and improved trading results as sovereign bond prices recovered and investment portfolio yields normalized. Inflation adjustment increased 10%. Net fee income rose modestly sequentially, supported by brokerage activity. Personal, administrative, and DNA increased 6% sequentially, partly reflecting seasonal factors and commercial initiatives. For the full year, however, expenses declined 9% in real terms, confirming structural efficiency gains. Loan loss provisions increased 75% sequentially, reflecting higher system-wide delinquency and to a lesser extent updated macroeconomic assumptions within our ECL framework. This was the primary driver of the quarterly loss. Turning to the loan portfolio. Loans increased 8% sequentially, outperforming 2% system growth and 37% year-over-year in line with the industry. Commercial lending drove expansion up 25% sequentially and 64% year-over-year, representing 63% of the portfolio. Growth was concentrated in working capital and export-related sectors where risk-adjusted returns remain attractive. Retail loans declined 4% sequentially and increased 8% year-over-year, reflecting stricter underwriting standards and delivering moderation in origination amid elevated rates and higher system-wide delinquency. Our goal remains to return to a more balanced retail-corporate mix as credit conditions stabilize. Turning to asset quality, the NPL ratio increased to 5% from 3.9% in the prior quarter, broadly in line with industry trends, reflecting higher delinquency levels amid system-wide credit stress and the seasoning of prior retail growth. Net cost of risk rose to 10.4% in the quarter. For the full year, net cost of risk was 6.2%. coverage remained sound at 112%. Importantly, trends began improving toward year-end. December and January trends reflect the outcome of our collection and refinancing initiatives at the branch level, targeting individual and SME customers, reducing migration into advanced delinquency buckets, and showing moderation in net cost of risk. While we remain cautious, current indicators suggest the fourth quarter likely marked the peak in provisioning under current assumptions. Moving to deposits, deliberate balance sheet optimization resulted in a 6% sequential decline in total deposits, particularly in higher-cost wholesale institutional funding as we actively adjusted our liability mix to improve funding quality and reduce cost volatility. By contrast, core transactional balances increased significantly with checking accounts up 39% and retail savings accounts rising 29% supported by December seasonality and the continued traction of our remunerated account strategy. Year over year, retail and commercial deposits increased 17% in real terms, reflecting stronger primary relationships and funding stability. Turning to page 10, net financial income reached 246 billion pesos in the quarter, up 82% sequentially and 1% year over year, recovering from extraordinary short-term pressures in the prior quarter. This was driven mainly by three factors. First, peso cost of funds declined approximately 400 basis points as deposits repriced following the drop in market rates, coupled with lower wholesale funding. Second, market-related NIM improved materially, rising to 26% from 11% in the prior quarter, driven by bond price recovery and a less volatile rate environment. Third, loan portfolio NIM improved 1.7 percentage points to 16.9% sequentially as we reprice the credit book. Let's now turn to the next slide to review our perspectives for the year. We expect real growth in loans between 25% and 30% led by corporate lending as financial intermediation normalizes. Retail credit is expected to progressively regain momentum alongside improvements in economic activity, employment, and disposable income. Under current regulations, peso-denominated loans are expected to grow faster than dollar loans. Deposits are projected to expand between 20% and 25%, supported by stronger client relationships. In our place case, peso deposits are expected to lead growth, while the recent implementation of the tax amnesty law provides additional upside potential for dollar balances. For asset quality, we expect the NPL ratio to range between 5% and 6% for the year, with a temporary peak in first Q26 reflecting the lacked effects of last year's volatility. underlying threats are stabilizing. Cost of risk is projected between 6 and 6.5%, consistent with normalization. NIM is expected to range between 14 and 16%. While interest rate volatility and reserve requirements remain high, improving funding dynamics and disciplined asset pricing should support margins. A temporary shift toward corporate lending may moderate margins but positions the balance sheet for sustainable growth. Turning to slide 10, we expect net fee income to expand around 5% in real terms, driven by banking and brokerage activity. Structural operating expenses are anticipated to remain broadly stable in real terms, reflecting sustained cost discipline and health count efficiencies, partially offset by depreciation and higher taxable revenues. In terms of profitability, We project full year ROE guidance of 4% to 9% range, reflecting upside opportunities from macro improvements and the relaxation of restrictive monetary policies, stronger credit growth, the increased opportunity to expand affluent clients in yield, and additional efficiency opportunities at the bank. We expect ROE to improve sequentially as margins recover and operating leverage builds. Lastly, we anticipate ending the year with a CET1 ratio of between 11 and 13%. This concludes our prepared remarks. We are now opening the floor for Q&A.

speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Thank you, Mariano. At this time, we will be conducting the Q&A session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you need to be connected to a Zoom platform. To ask a question, please press the raise your hand button and press it again to withdraw your question. You can also send your questions in written form via the Q&A box. We will ask you to limit yourself to one question and a follow-up, and then you can ask again. The first question comes from Brian Flores with Citibank. Hello. Good morning, Brian. Please go ahead.

speaker
Brian

Hi, Tim. Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. I have a question on capital. Your quarter to 51 ratio rose above 15% in the quarter. we saw as you mentioned it was aided by the election recovery and some shifts in the investment portfolio so given that you mentioned 2026 is slated for a renewed expansion in lending I just wanted to check with you how much of this capital buffer is truly structural and how much do you think it's a temporary reflection of the high real rates and the low risk weighted asset density. I just wanted to understand if we could see this ratio revert towards the 13% levels we saw now that the growth reaccelerates. And also, if I may, if you are planning on on changing anything regarding your dividend policy here on capital.

speaker
Mariano Biglia
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you. Thank you, Brian, for your question. Regarding the capital levels, as you said, we ended the year with about 15% of the fund capital ratio. And with that, we can fund the growth expected for 2026, and according to our guidance, by the end of the year, the capital ratio will be in a range between 11% and 13%. The increasing in the capital ratio compared to September is in is in part related to off-balance sheet losses, because as of September, our investment portfolio had lower market prices that set an off-balance sheet loss that was reduced during the fourth quarter. And that has an impact on deferred tax assets, which are deduction from capital. So... disappear in this deduction or most of it that's why we could increase our capital seeing that the result for the quarter was negative and we had a low growth in the quarter so from now on that's Those extraordinary movements of balance sheets results were mostly neutralized, so we don't expect big changes in that part of the composition of capital during 2026. The capital level will be set by reinvestment of utilities, of profits, and the loan growth that we now foresee between 25 and 30% in real terms for the year. So those are the dynamics on the tier one ratio that we see for 2026. And then regarding to dividends, as we had a negative result in 2025, we're not expecting to by dividends in 2026. So, profits during the year will be reinvested, and only in 2027 we will decide, or the shareholders will decide on profits of 2026. So far, for the next shareholders needed, but not recommending any dividends.

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Brian, basically, sorry, to complement, so we believe that with our current capital base, it is sufficient to fund long-growth projected for 2026 while remaining comfortably between the range of CT1 that we announced.

speaker
Brian

Perfect. And if I just follow up, Patricio, Mariano, and Tim, we have this sense, speaking with investors, that maybe there are limited catalysts for more enthusiasm in maybe the Argentine bank space. I just wanted to, of course, Patricio, I think you mentioned in your remarks, maybe the FX liberalization, maybe the reforms. But if you could elaborate a bit on what do you think could maybe help a bit on the market sentiment, right? Particularly for the banking segment, I think it would be great color here.

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think that there are... Let me first start with the State of the Union address that was given by President Milley on Sunday. We have seen a very confident president talking to the chamber and also stating that he's going to go for a extremely reformist agenda, a very, very ambitious reformist agenda, which I think this is very good because it encompasses a lot of institutional building for Argentina. So I think this is positive. And what I think, besides all the laws that have either being passed like labor reform or probably, I think, in the near future, the glaciers law, which is going to help for investment in the mining industry. I think that certain... I think it would be essential if the government at a certain point decides to go to the top international markets, that would be a very strong signal for refinancing the treasury, but at the same time impacting on the domestic rates. and eventually lowering liquidity requirements because at this stage, the government is securing a restrictive monetary policy because they want to be reserves. They don't want to have a volatility on the dollar. And so I think it's all connected in a way. So that by itself would be one of the factors instilling confidence in the banking system. At the same time, with all these laws passed, particularly the fiscal reform laws, and what's going on in the dynamic industries, I think it will improve the job market, and eventually this will also help instill more confidence. I understand your question, and I am positive, but we need to wait.

speaker
Brian

Super useful. Thank you, Tim.

speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Thank you, Brian. The next question comes from Pedro Leuc with Itaú. Hello, good morning, Pedro.

speaker
Pedro

Hi, good morning. Morning, Anna and team. Thank you so much for hosting the call and taking our question. First, on your loan book growth outlook for the year, you also grew a lot of loans in the first quarter. And I'm trying to reconcile it with the still staggering pace of NPLs that we are seeing. And you even mentioned in the guidance that it will take up again in the first quarter. But first quarter, again, was the peak of provisions. Just trying to reconcile everything that you're still seeing NPLs going up. and you want to grow Lone Book at a pretty fast pace, but you feel like provisions have peaked. I'm trying to put all of this together and maybe trying to really understand on the provision side if it weren't more prudent for you to increase coverage along the year as you exactly want to keep growing on a fast pace.

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Marino will compliment, but what we have seen is a clear improvement in collection trends in December, discontinued in January, and discontinued in February. So I think that there is a peak. But of course, the NPL ratio reflects prior period delinquencies, but collection, as I said, performance has improved. But most importantly, we see the early signs of cost of risk stabilization. I don't know if you want to compliment on that.

speaker
Mariano Biglia
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, as Patricio explained, low-loss provisions, particularly for the retail segment, they are charged in advance of NPLs, because when we see delinquency in a certain product, mainly in retail products, we make most of the charge before the credit gets to 90 days past due, which is the moment where we recognize it as a non-performing law. So, in the fourth quarter, we saw a big in those provisions that most probably will translate into a peak of NPS in the first quarter. But the actions that Fabrizio explains that we were taking and we engaged also during December and January the branch network in adding efforts, collection efforts to contain delinquency, to resume payments in individuals and smaller SMEs. That is translated into early indicators of improvements and that will most probably reduce charges in the first quarter of 2026 and have the NPS of the first quarter as a big and reduced since then.

speaker
Pedro

That's a very clear position, Gustavo. And if I may, on a follow-up regarding your ROE guidance, 4 to 9, and I really like the slide that you put there, you know, the main assumptions behind it. It's very useful. And as the year starts, however, 1Q, do you think we already be in the positive territory for ROEs or not just yet?

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

In terms of ROEs, we believe that we can expect sequential improvements throughout 2026. We saw, as we mentioned just recently, just now in 4 June 2025, we saw a recovery in NIM. Then the cost of restabilization that we see in the collections, which makes us construct with a constructive view on the rather normalization of credit costs. Interest rate volatility that we have seen in the first two months of the year, they have decreased. So this is also, this should help enhance margin and profitability. And also with, so we expect ROE basically to move into double digits by the end of 2026. And as we continue expanding the loan book, we look forward to higher margin lending, higher margin retail lending. And with sustained cost discipline, we should see the path back to high-teens ROEs by late 2027 and 2028.

speaker
Pedro

It's very clear, Patricio. Thank you. It's very useful.

speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

The next questions come from Pedro with Latin Securities. Hello, good morning, Pedro.

speaker
Pedro

Good morning. Thank you for taking my call, my question. I wanted to ask on the purchase relief, you highlighted a decision to leverage the balance sheet during the quarter. Should we view this as a temporary adjustment to respond to volatility, or can we see it again moving forward?

speaker
Mariano Biglia
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, thank you for your question. These are mainly tactical movements because the reduction in the balance sheet size is related to wholesale deposits. On the other hand, we have reserve requirements and security. So these are tactical movements. It's not that We expect more for the rest of the year. So when we see opportunities, we can expand our policy in order to bring profitability.

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

But I think there is a more structural trend behind what we mentioned, which is a tactical move. And that relates to the strong growth we see in remunerated payroll and SME accounts from clients who activated these accounts. This mostly consists of new balances and not just simply money that was there and not been remunerated. And the funds, they come either from mutual funds or for individuals from digital wallets. So this is helping us to improve and increase a stable source of funding. And I want to stress this is very important for us acquiring principality with our clients.

speaker
Pedro

Okay, super clear. Thank you.

speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Thank you, Pedro. I saw Carlos from . Hello. Good morning, Marcos.

speaker
Marcos

Good morning. Thank you for the presentation. My question is if you expect to lower non-cost deposits to keep growing in the quarter?

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Can you repeat the question? I didn't understand. Sorry.

speaker
Marcos

Yes. We saw that low-cost deposits had a growth towards the end of the quarter. We want to know if you expect that trend to continue in this first quarter of 2016.

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

This is our focus. The focus is basically, of course, there is a seasonality in the fourth quarter. But the focus is to have what we call the CASA deposits, which is current accounts and savings accounts, to continue growing in 2026. We have a very strong focus on that, and this is going to help us improve our quality of funding.

speaker
Marcos

Okay, thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Pedro, I see your hand again. You have another question?

speaker
Pedro

I did. It was more related to Invertir online. Here we had a very nice performance as i as i'm seeing it um especially on the bottom line um 8.1 billion argentine pesos this operationally assets under management active customers all also training very well you see that you increase the head count here Maybe you just walk us over some of the initiatives that's undertaking there, what drove this quarter's profits upward, and maybe a glimpse of what we should expect from EOL in 2026. Thank you.

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I will defer this to Diego, only saying that this market is an ascent market. We've seen over the last few years high inflation. But with declining inflation, then there will be more risk appetite for investors.

speaker
spk11

Yes, thank you, Pedro, for your question. So many things were in place in the last quarter that are going on this year also. We started to focus more on affluent clients. We believe that with the normalization in Argentina, this will be the highest valuable customers we can offer. So, we are focusing our efforts in building not only products for them, but also advisors that can handle the growing number of customers we have in our wealth management business, also in SMEs and IFAs. That was part of the switch you saw or the trend you saw in the fourth quarter that is going on this first quarter and will be the trend we are focusing on for 2026, 2027, and also 2028. We believe that. The normalization in Argentina will open a lot of opportunities for us and for our business regarding the high-value customers. Regarding the retail customers, of course, EO is the leader in Argentina. We have 2,100,000 accounts. So we have a great UX, and we make experience of operating our platform very valuable. straightforward for our customers. It's very easy for them to operate. And last year, there was some portion drug trails that arised, and we were there for our customers to execute, like some effects transactions in the market. Also, Causione was a product that was very high demand last year. So, I believe our... Our platform allows retail customers to operate easy, and that's why they made us the leading broker in retail.

speaker
Pedro

Very good, and much success there in 2026.

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Thank you, Pedro. Sorry, let me compliment something else about you all. is that asset management is a business that is starting to appear important in Liberty Online. It already represents 10% of the brokerage fee revenues. And they are, they have, they are launching, they are already, they have their proprietary funds. They just launched the third fund, very successful, a few weeks ago, already almost $30 million in deposits. It's a peso fund. But also the first fund they launched, the Zappdolla Fund, is the third largest in the country. And this is quite amazing. And so I believe that we have a very strong franchise.

speaker
Pedro

Sorry. Good. Thank you so much.

speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Thank you, Pedro. We have a question from Carlos Gómez López with HBC. Hello. Good morning, Carlos.

speaker
Carlos

Hello. Good morning. I hope you can hear me.

speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Yes.

speaker
Carlos

Thank you very much. So I wanted to ask first, I remember around this time last year, we had high growth and you had a contraction of spreads. I would like to know how spreads, both for corporates and for individuals, are evolving right now in light of the MPLs that we have had. And second, we're already in March, the middle of March. How is deposit growth and loan growth going so far, because if you look at the aggregate figures, there's barely any expansion, and it seems a bit challenging to get to the growth targets for both deposits and loans that you put in your guidance. Thank you.

speaker
Mariano Biglia
Chief Financial Officer

Hi, Carlos. Thank you for your question. Regarding spreads, we don't see contractions in spreads so far. We have spreads both on corporate and retail. Only regarding MPS is that we are growing more on the corporate side than on the retail side. So, in fact, this gave us a composition of the loan portfolio with higher weight of corporate loans. We are not reducing spreads. That's in pesos and in dollars. But we see that for longer-term loans, there are higher spreads, although this is still a small portion of the portfolio because most of the commercial portfolio is in pesos and is a working capital. But we are seeing some growth. to growing in longer term, which has higher spreads. And regarding the evolution of loans and deposits, Before, again, there is some disparity that in December it increases not only loans, but also savings accounts and current accounts. But aside of that, we continue with the trends we saw in the fourth quarter. Still, we are being very prudent on the retail portfolio side. And, as I also explained before, we may have an active alcohol movement which is also in the process.

speaker
Carlos

You can follow up on the spreads. The reality is that this second half of the year has been very challenging for the system as a whole. The system as a whole has barely been able to make money even in the fourth quarter, which makes you wonder, I mean, are the spreads adequate in Argentina given the level of NPLs and the level of provisions? Is the system profitable or do you need to see an adjustment? If we need to see more growth, I mean, that would be problematic. As things are today, the banks are not making money.

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I mean, this has to do, of course, with NIMS. And NIMS, they depend on interest rate volatility, inflation. We just mentioned that interest rate volatility, we started to see a decline that would be important to have to preserve good margins. But with inflation going down, government is very, very, very strong statement saying that the inflation will go down by the second half of the year. Then that will help decrease the interest rates, nominal interest rates. we could expect eventually a flexibilization in terms of our reserve requirements. And if there is an increase, as the government is looking for, of peso demand, that will fuel deposits and that will allow expanding the balance sheet and, of course, more leverage for the banking system. this will be a positive effect for the return on equity. That's the way forward. That's a positive way forward. And this is what we're looking for.

speaker
spk07

Okay.

speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Thank you so much. Thank you, Carlos. Our next question comes from Cayo Prato with UBS. Hello. Good morning, Cayo. How are you?

speaker
Cayo Prato

Hi, Ana. Good morning. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the opportunity. I just have one follow-up here on my side, please. It's on the retail credit portfolio. So we saw, as you mentioned, some contractions sequentially on the portfolio again, I think. And in your slide, you mentioned about the retail segment resuming gradually, as far as I understood. But just wondering... if you can provide us a brief update about the retail segment at the system level as well. So how are you seeing first your credit models after this uptick on NPLs and the overall consumer demand and the overall banking appetite for this segment, not only from you, but also from other banks and especially fintechs that might gain some traction at this current environment. So it would be good to have an overview on the segment and when do you think it should start to recover, at least on your side as well? Thank you.

speaker
spk07

Thank you.

speaker
Mariano Biglia
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I think, as you said, on the first quarter, it's a contraction on the retail portfolio, and we aim to grow gradually into 2026. Only when we see... in this segment. So far, as we said, we see better early indicators, projections for this segment, the level of activity, the decrease in the volatility of interest rates that we saw between July and October and up to some extent continued in January. So this is very important in order to resume activity across all the industries in Argentina because right now it is very uneven. between very dynamic industries that will allow us to resume growth.

speaker
Ernesto Gabilondo

one or two things. Obviously, our main focus is obviously lending money to our customer's customer base. So we are maintaining, we adjusted our building models in order to do that. Basically, our focus is our customers. But also, as Mariana mentioned before, We have all the written branches of the written segment focused on collections. So we have an excellent resource in order to do that. It's different things that as we do in the past. So we maintain our focus, we adjust our models, and we want to keep in track our existing customers. Also, we are looking for new customers with new grade models in order to increase our grade and our grade-till grade. So, basically, we are changing some things in order to be more effective, obviously, get more profitability for that product.

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

In terms of looking forward for 2026, retail acceleration will depend on continued disinflation, reduction in nominal rates, improved consumer confidence, particularly on the job market and disposable income. and eventually lower liquidity requirements. FinTechs are, yes, they are on the screen. We are conscious and they will start loaning to certain segments. So we understand that and it's good competition.

speaker
Cayo Prato

Okay, that's clear. Thank you very much.

speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Thank you, Caio. We have a couple of questions in the Q&A box. One is from Mattia Cataruzzi with AdCat. He says, if the government allows banks to lend in U.S. dollars to borrowers without dollar-linked income, how would Superior position itself competitively? Would dollar lending improve spreads and return on equity structurally, or would it mainly shift balance sheet composition?

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I think that this is an ongoing discussion in the financial system because there is a lot of liquidity in dollars that are not being used by banks. But we believe that we have a cautious approach. Currency mismatch continues to be a risk. we need a fiscal anchor for quite a time, and eventually also central bank independence, a state agenda for the entire political spectrum, but we're not there yet. But still, we have a selective approach, and we would be open to basically lend top-tier companies that have good protections and so on. So we are looking for, and if the regulations change, we will go for selective opportunities.

speaker
Ernesto Gabilondo

But the current regulations allow to lend dollars because you have the deposit base in order to lend dollars to the the exports chain, and also if you have bonds or loans from external financing, you can lend. So, actually, you can lend dollars to the companies.

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Not with deposits, but yes, with the rest of the deposits. Exactly. So, we have a selective approach on that.

speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

We have a couple of questions coming from Ernesto Gabilondo with BOFA. Let me read some of them. We have a couple of minutes, maybe further ones that I think we have not answered yet. The deposit requirement is expected to decline from 50% to 45% by the end of March. Is there any further timeline to continue reducing this requirement to improve peso liquid? Or does management believe the Millet administration will maintain a restrictive monetary policy to preserve fiscal surplus and manage effect stability ahead of the 2027 presidential election?

speaker
Ernesto Gabilondo

We don't have any news about that.

speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

only until the end of March. I don't know. That's the only thing we have. No, it's because it's a, the regulation is maturing, the reduction with a, which was set up with securities. That's the only thing.

speaker
spk07

Now we continue with the same.

speaker
Patricio Superdiel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

No. We believe that it will be, in fact, in the, in the, State of the Union address, he mentioned that they will continue to maintain a restrictive monetary policy. But so this is dynamic. They need to see if it's too much a hindrance for economic activity. If they are more at ease with the building of foreign reserves, which frankly they are doing a very good job, then maybe they will be less restrictive. But I think the bias will be restricted.

speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Yes, our base case scenario for the guidance or embedded in the guidance is without any assumption of further reducing . This is important.

speaker
Ernesto Gabilondo

We are very cautious. Very important. Yes. Agreed.

speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

Yes, I think the first one was already in terms of quality, MPLs, cost of risk. I think Mariano walked through that. and assumptions behind guidance. I think it's in the presentation, but I don't know, Mariano, if you want to go quickly, and this is the last question we took up.

speaker
Mariano Biglia
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, the assumptions, the macroeconomic assumptions we have in our guidance is inflation of 22.4%, GDP growth of 3.7%, and inflation of $1,000.

speaker
Ana Bartizaghi
Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer

So thank you, all of you, for participating. I think this is the last question. So the earnings call today comes to an end. We appreciate your interest in our company, and we look forward to meeting more of you over the coming months and providing financial and business updates next quarter. In the interim, we remain available to answer any questions Any questions, I'm sorry that you may have. So have a nice day.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

-

-