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Sarah
Operator
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Smurfit Westrock 2024 Q3 results webcast and conference call. At this time all participants are in listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session you'll need to press star 1 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Ciaran Potts, Smurfett Westrock Group VP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Ciaran Potts
Group VP, Investor Relations
Thank you, Sarah. As a reminder, statements in today's earnings release and presentation and the comments made by management during this call may be considered forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to the factors identified in the earnings release and in our SEC filings. The company undertakes no obligation to revise any forward-looking statements. Today's remarks also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release and in the appendix to the presentation, which are available at investors.smurfitwestrock.com. In order to accommodate all those who want to ask questions, we ask that participants limit themselves to two questions during Q&A, And should you require any clarifications on what we are discussing today, myself and Frank will make ourselves available after the call. I will now hand you over to Tony Smurfit, CEO, Smurfit Westrock.
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
Thank you, Ciaran, and good morning or good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join us today. As you will have seen from this morning's release, which is the first reporting period for Smurfit Westrock, I think it's fair to say we reported an excellent third quarter performance with adjusted EBITDA of 1.265 billion and a margin of 16.5%. Since combining our two companies on July 5th, which is a little over 100 days ago, we have made great progress in bringing these two companies together. And I think the results demonstrate that we are building a strong foundation for the continued development and success of Smurfit Westrock. I want to emphasize the enthusiasm and resolve I have seen across Smurfit Westrock to deliver on the combined potential. And I fully anticipate, as time progresses, this will be absolutely apparent. When combining Smurfit, Kappa, and Westrock, we were very clear on the kind of company that we could create. We were going to create the global leader in sustainable packaging. And with the applications that we have and the knowledge we have of the industry, we would be able to deliver the most value-adding and innovative packaging across the industry. We will be able to leverage all our applications and knowledge across a broader geographic reach and across an unparalleled product diversity. We felt very confident that we could deliver improved operating efficiency and drive excellence for our customers. We also felt that in legacy Smurfit Kappa, we had developed a tremendous culture, which we could bring to the new Smurfit Westrock. A culture that is performance driven, teamwork orientated with accountability for results and a deep desire to perform and deliver for all stakeholders. And we also felt that our capital allocation approach, which is the foundation for the success of legacy Smurfit Kappa in creating value for shareholders would be a fundamental pillar for success in Smurfit Westrock. After the first 100 plus days, we have even more confidence as we enter the next phase of our journey. It is interesting after such a short period of time to see what we have identified in the new Smurfit Westrock, which is nothing short of compelling. Across our world, across our industries, we have excellent, strong, and defendable market positions. What I have been so impressed with is the level of experience and knowledge at the operational level of legacy Westrock. For sure, we've seen many opportunities for growth and cost reduction. We've also been able to identify a much sharper customer focus where value over volume will be a philosophy to be adhered to. Additionally, all designers, all product innovations, all supply chain knowledge has a much larger pool of customers. This will take time as we develop the systems, but it is an immense opportunity for growth and for customers to attain unique, bespoke packaging to help reduce their costs and increase their sales. And finally, but by no means least, Across the spectrum of businesses in the combination, a renewed focus on quality and service and right first time through productivity initiatives, through further footprint initiatives will deliver higher operating efficiency and customer retention. So that's all good and well, but what have we done so far? I'm very proud of what we've accomplished to date. The new leadership teams across Smurfit Westrock organization are now in place. and all are aligned around the culture and the way forward for the business. We have already put over 80 legacy Westrock managers through a short INSEAD program, and a further 80 will soon commence the program. 400 legacy Smurfit Kappa managers have already completed this development course. As many of you will note, there have been multiple plant visits occurred with over 85% of the legacy Westrock paper system already visited, along with many converting facilities across all regions. We like what we see, and we have generally very well invested asset base. We've introduced a much sharper commercial focus, whereby we are not going to use expensive machines to run loss-making products. This is an anathema to us, and also not good business for our customers. And of course, on a step-by-step basis, we are identifying operational efficiencies reducing SG&A, reducing the use of external consultants, and taking the hard decisions on the reduction in headcount, again, on a step-by-step basis, whereby recently we've eliminated some 800 positions. Sometimes you have to look back to see how far you've come. In this case, you can see that neither legacy organizations have been standing still. Over the last 22 months, nearly 30 consumer and corrugated facilities have closed. as well as three paper mills who have also closed, and four paper mills have been divested. This has radically improved the operational footprint of the combination. In a company of this size, there will always be a continued need to look at different operations based upon operating efficiency and market positioning. But over the last period of time, the combination has radically improved as a result of these closures. Significant cost savings have been achieved, and of course, This allows for us to better allocate capital and resources in the future. We know we've done a lot, with a lot more still to do, but we've developed a very strong foundation and platform for growth and development. I'll now pass you over to Ken, who will take you through the financial performance, and I'll wrap up at the end.
Ken
CFO
Thank you, Tony, and good morning, everyone. As Tony mentioned at the top, this is our first set of results reporting as a combined business, and with net sales in the quarter of nearly $7.7 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.265 billion, an EBITDA margin above 16%, and adjusted free cash flow of almost $120 million, this is a strong foundation from which we begin our journey. As you'll have seen in the release, and likely know already, Legacy Smurfit Kappa was the accounting acquirer in the period, and as such, with the combination closing on July 5th, the reported numbers here on slide 10 will not include the first five days of Legacy Westrock earnings, which equates to around $33 million in adjusted EBITDA for the group. Furthermore, any prior numbers in the earnings release will be legacy Smurfa Kappa numbers reported on the U.S. GAAP. We have, however, recreated the company's third quarter 2024 results on a combined non-GAAP basis a little further down in the presentation, and I'll take you through that in a few moments. Turning now to the reported performance for our three segments in the quarter. As a reminder, our North American segment includes the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, and I'm delighted to report a very strong quarter. Smurfit Westrock North America has leading market positions in both corrugated and consumer packaging, and security of supply across a number of paper grades to feed our diverse network of converting operations. As Tony also mentioned, operational improvements have begun already, and we have an even greater conviction in the growth potential of the business, having spent the first three months gaining a far deeper understanding of the legacy Westrock operations. Those of you who followed the Smurfit Capital journey over the years will be familiar with our longstanding approach of delivering differentiated packaging solutions, becoming supply chain partner of choice, and prioritizing the value we deliver to our customers over delivering volume. This is a track record we are very proud of, and at Smurfo Westrock, we are already seeing the initial benefits of aligning this commercial strategy across the organization. In the quarter, our North American operations delivered gross sales of 4.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of 780 million, and a very solid adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.8%. Looking at the comparative performance for the segment on a combined non-GAAP basis, as per the 8K filed on 24th of September, we saw significant margin improvement year on year due to both higher volumes and higher selling prices, with cost headwinds on items such as recovered fibre, energy and distribution, alongside wages and other inflationary costs, which were more than offset by reduced economic downtime aided by increased internal paper integration and operational improvements. Corrugated box pricing was up compared to the prior year, while volumes were 1.1% lower on a same-day basis. We saw weaker demand in the South and Midwest region, stable volumes in the North Atlantic region, and solid growth in Western states. Finally, consumer packaging performed well, with food and beverage demand growth of 4% year-on-year. And now looking at our Europe, EMEA, and APAC divisions. Much like the U.S. and Canadian elements of our North America segment, our European operations saw limited operational overlap post-July 5th, with an addition of mainly consumer converting facilities to complement legacy Smurfa Kappa's number one market position in corrugators and container board, and our existing consumer and specialty packaging operations. In the quarter, the business delivered gross sales of $2.7 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $411 million, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.5%. Corrugated box prices were down year-on-year, although they continued higher versus the previous quarter, and we expect to see continued box price recovery going forward. Corrugated volumes are up 2.7% on an absolute basis, or 0.7% higher on a same-day basis. The adjusted EBITDA margin was lower year-on-year, predominantly due to lower corrugated prices and higher recovered fiber costs, partly offset by higher volumes. Our Latin American segment remained very strong in the third quarter, And as you can see here, with gross sales of half billion, adjusted EBITDA of 116 million, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of above 23%, this is an excellent outcome for a region we have operated in for over 40 years. And again, when looking at the comparative performance of the segment on a combined non-gap basis, as per the September 8K, year-on-year EBITDA was broadly unchanged. The region saw lower average box prices and lower box volumes in-year, as shipments per day were down 2.7%. with demand in Argentina being a particular drag on segment volumes. However, we also saw generally lower operating costs offsetting these movements, with the margin performance being helped by our unrelenting focus on costs and operational efficiency. As mentioned earlier, slide 12 shows our third quarter results for the group prepared on a combined non-GAAP basis. I don't propose to dwell on this slide as the reported numbers for the three segments are included here, plus the legacy WestRock sales and earnings for the first five days of July, which I think gives a more complete picture of the company's performance in the third quarter. With WestRock's adjusted EBITDA margin of over 16%, the company is beginning its first chapter from a position of strength. And speaking about that journey ahead, slide 13 maps out our capital allocation framework. Those who have followed the performance of Smurfa Capital over the years will be familiar with it. Our capital allocation framework will remain flexible and returns focused at its core. As a team with longstanding experience in the industry, we believe that capital allocated to internal projects, what we see as the lowest risk form of capital, will be central to our future success. We are taking a disciplined, bottom-up approach to assessing the capital needs of the business, and as Tony said earlier, having visited the vast majority of the legacy Westrock operations, we are very happy with the asset base and the opportunity to unlock significant value through operational improvements, and empowering local plant managers who are closer to the customer. Having spent some time assessing the initial capital needs for the client company, we believe that for the full year 2025, total capex will be in the range of 2.2 to 2.4 billion. The dividend is another cornerstone of our capital allocation strategy. And as a reminder, subject to board approvals, Smurfa Westrock intends to pay a dividend in line with the progressive dividend policy of legacy Smurfa Kappa. As we harmonize the different dividend streams and payment cycles for the remainder of 2024, we are paying a dividend for this quarter of 30.25 cents per share. In Smurfit Westrock, we plan to remain disciplined in relation to M&A and benchmark those opportunities against all other forms of capital allocation. The combination between Smurfit Capital and Westrock, undoubtedly transformative in nature, was rooted in our history of discipline, best illustrated by combining both companies on equivalent enterprise multiples to create a global leader in sustainable packaging. The balance sheet of Smurfit Westrock has significant strength and flexibility, and we are committed to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating. We also believe that given the size and strength of our operations and the ability to generate significant free cash flow, Smurfit Westrock can be less than two times ever through the cycle. And the inclusion of other forms of shareholder returns underscores the flexibility and agility of this framework and ensures that all avenues to create and return value to our shareholders are considered and benchmark against all other options. Ultimately, the framework at its simplest is about creating long-term value for all stakeholders. And with that, I'll pass you back to Tony for some concluding remarks.
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
Thank you, Ken. You know I have a saying that success is never a straight line, but in legacy Smurfit Kappa, we have proved over a long period of time that we deliver against all performance measures, And this is evident on the slide in front of you. I won't go through every point, but please note that as Roam wasn't built in a day, neither is a great company. And Smurfit Kappa was a great company. But I have the utmost confidence that Smurfit Westrock will be an even better company with an even better coverage, with a better product portfolio, and with great people consistently delivering for our stakeholders. This is a journey and not a destination. We will continue to optimize our operating model. We'll continue to be customer-centric in all that we do. We'll continue to have a performance-led culture where responsibility lands at the local plant level. And we'll continue to capital discipline, which has stood Smurfit from its inception back in the 30s, recognizing that all capital must be paid for and that all capital invested in the business must provide a return for our stakeholders. Layering on top of that, is ensuring that we continue our sustainability and innovation leadership. We believe this is a central element to our success, both now and in the years ahead. And of course, with that, as you're all aware, we identified some 400 million of synergies, which I would call hard synergies, which will be delivered. I'll make the point that there is considerably more potential than this 400 million, at least the same again as we implement commercial practices and improve our operating efficiency through the combination. This is driven by the owner-operator mentality that we have introduced at Smurfit Westrock. All senior managers are significant shareholders and as such understand the need for higher returns. As I said earlier, I'm deeply encouraged by the level of skill, experience and knowledge that exists at local level, which we in Smurfit Westrock will unleash. I'm also encouraged by the initial benefits we're seeing from this approach. And while we expect this year to be approximately 4.7 billion U.S. dollars, this, of course, is not the summit of our ambitions. As Ken said, in the year ahead, we will invest somewhere between 2.2 and 2.4 billion, which is lower than our initial estimate for year one without affecting our expected returns. As we run through the course of next year, we will be assessing our capital needs to take advantage of the opportunities for development across our world for the new Smurfit WestRock. And we'll update you further as our thinking progresses. I do hope that you'll all understand that we have very significant opportunities ahead for this company, and we look forward to delivering on those opportunities in the short, medium, and long term. And now with that, operator, myself and Ken, we're open to taking any questions from anyone on the call.
Sarah
Operator
Thank you. To ask a question, you'll need to press star 1 and 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, you can press star 1 and 1 again. Thank you. We'll now take our first question. This is from the line of Charlie Muir-Sands from BNP Paribas Exxon. Please go ahead.
Charlie Muir-Sands
Analyst, BNP Paribas Exxon
Good morning. Good afternoon, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. Just two, please. Firstly, on the full year guidance, if taken literally with no decimal places beyond what you've given, it suggests a slight reduction in EBITDA in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter. Is that a fair assumption or is there a bit of conservatism or just rounding in there? Or are there any particular factors we should bear in mind such as maintenance downtime in the long paper position in North America, for example?
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
Yeah, Charlie, The guidance is based on, you know, this is the first time we've gone into December with NUCO, so therefore, you know, obviously we tend to be a little bit conservative, but also there is 60 million of additional downtime and a small, some downtime and maintenance downtime that we have built into this quarter that we didn't have for Q3. So there's an additional 60 million hit for downtime, both for commercial downtime in some of our consumer mills and also in just regular maintenance downtime that is more than in Q3. So some degree of conservatism, we hope. I mean, you know, obviously December is always a funny month, and then, you know, the $60 million hit.
Ken
CFO
I think, Charlie, as well, if you look at the year-on-year, you can see the progression. Quarter four versus quarter four is still quite significant, and 24 over 23 for the combined non-GAAP basis. Keep that in mind as well.
Charlie Muir-Sands
Analyst, BNP Paribas Exxon
Yeah, will do. And secondly, just on the CapEx plan for next year and I guess the midterm, historically, you guys have managed to target as a mid to high teens pre-tax return on anything that could be considered beyond maintenance spend. Given... what you've seen from the Westrop business, is the opportunity better there perhaps because, you know, there's more low-hanging fruit or less because more of that budget needs to go into sort of catch-up maintenance?
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
I wouldn't say it's catch-up maintenance. I mean, listen, we think that's a reasonable number to be looking to go for on non-maintenance CapEx, and I wouldn't rush to change that right now. But obviously, you know, there is... a lot of opportunity as we are bringing the two businesses together and our thinking together and how we approach the customer. And that includes some investment to make sure that we deliver right on time, first on time to have OTIF to our customers at the historical levels of Smurfit Kappa. And that's not an overnight job, Charlie, but I mean, you know, I think we have a plan and the capital investments that we see for next year is taking into account what we need for next year, but then obviously as we go through the year and we see where the opportunities are and the way to continue to reduce costs, we'll develop that out as we go through the year and then communicate accordingly. Thank you. Thanks.
Sarah
Operator
Thank you. We'll now take our next question. This is from Lars Kilberg from Stifel. Please go ahead.
Lars Kilberg
Analyst, Stifel
Thank you for taking the questions and congrats on the first 100 days. Just a couple of questions on synergies. You seem to be executing quite rapidly. Can you share with us how we should think about the cadence of those 400 million that you've spoken to? And then secondly, of course, the next comment that you made about finding incremental meaningful incremental operational commercial improvements that could deliver a similar or greater number than that. Anything you can share today, again, in terms of pace and delivering that and what you've identified?
Ken
CFO
Hey, Lars. Ken here. On what Tony described in his script as the hard synergies, I think we're still on track, as you would have outlined in September, that by the end of next year, we would have trapped all that 400. So as you go into 26, if you like, you've got the full year run rate on that number. And we are getting through some of those. Some take longer, as you can imagine, particularly in terms of optimizing the system and integrating tons and not displacing the market. So we're very much on track in terms of what Tony describes as the hard synergies, very much in line with what we would have said back when we closed the deal in July. On the other bucket, if you like, the number we expect to get through operational improvement and everything else, That's probably going to take slightly longer. You know, we would expect to get some of that during 25, the rest during 26. It's probably more like an 18-month, two-year timeframe to execute all of that simply because a lot of that's probably wrapped up in terms of commercial opportunity and when contracts roll off and how we see about it and linking back to Tony's point around, you know, improvements around OTIF and quality and service and everything else. But in terms of simple wins, you know, it's taking costs out. around some areas like consultants and extra in 25, which will come through fairly quickly. So, you know, it's probably slightly longer timeframe than the heart synergies, but it's not a long-term goal. It's still, you know, 12, 18 months, 24 at the max.
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
I think Lars, just as an overall view on it, we're very much streamlining the business to devolve responsibility back to plant level and to operational level, you know, that, you know, head office is there to support, not to, not to run the business. And, you know, that is, you know, empowering people to understand that their P&L is their responsibility. And, you know, obviously when you look at your P&L and you find you've got contracts that are not necessarily good ones, of course, some of them take a while to unwind. But, you know, they do unwind and then obviously we'll, I mean, I hate and we hate as a company to have expensive machinery running businesses where you don't get a return. And it's no good for our customers either because then you get yourself in a situation where you're not able to continue to invest in the business and grow the business. And so we have a very strong view in how we run the business, as you know, over the years. And I think when you add into that all the applications and the tools that we have to give to our customers to help them reduce their costs, not necessarily reduce our margins, but help them reduce their costs, then it's a very powerful organization and what you can bring to customers and customers want to work with you. So I think we've proven over the years in legacy Smurfit Kappa how to do it. And, you know, it's not an overnight success. It doesn't just happen straight away. But over time, with the empowerment we're giving, I feel really comfortable when I see some of the people that we've met in legacy Smurfit Westrock, or sorry, legacy Westrock, that we've got a huge opportunity here.
Lars Kilberg
Analyst, Stifel
One follow-up, if I may. You spoke to somewhat lower CapEx requirements, at least near term in 2025. What have you found as you toured those 85% of the mills that has potentially surprised you? You alluded to that, obviously, there's been an ongoing business improvement. Does that have anything to do with that lower CapEx number, or is it just
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
need a bit more time to identify where we're going to spend more money well we are spending a bit more in in legacy legacy westrock and a bit less in in legacy smurfit kappa because you know you know we are very well invested in smurfit kappa through the programs that we've done and we are spending a bit more you know there are i mean obviously like even in legacy smurfit kappa not all of our assets are perfect and you know we We've just closed this year a mill in France, and we tend to deal with things when we need to. So there will be always things to do in the asset base of the business. But what I've been very happy with is that the assets are very well maintained with very good people. Most of the consumer plants that we've seen are good or excellent, and that's across the world. Sometimes I have to pinch myself of how good they are, frankly. some corrugated box plants need work, but there's some that are truly excellent. And so, you know, sometimes a bit, and the mills, on the mill side, you know, there are some mills that are, you know, won't be around in 5, 10, 20 years, but there are many that are, you know, I think about, I think 65% of the The corrugated mills are in the first or the second quartile, as we see it, and plenty of opportunity to improve those in the third quartile as we go forward. I think we've got a strong mill system, which is, at this moment in time, relatively sold out. As we integrate more to our own businesses in Mexico, as we do a little bit of small movement of product around the place, you know, it gives us a lot of hope for the future.
Lars Kilberg
Analyst, Stifel
Very good. Thank you.
Sarah
Operator
Thank you. We'll now take our next question. This is from the line of Gabe Hady from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Gabe Hady
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Good morning, Tony and Ken. I had a question, I guess, maybe based on the information that we have and our modeling, it's our model, I appreciate that. It looks like legacy kind of MRFIT was a little bit below what we would have expected. And I'm just curious if you can give us the cadence of kind of price or what you expect to continue to realize based on movements that have already transpired, if that question makes sense.
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
Yeah, I think basically, you know, our If you look at our European system, the German market has not, I mean, it's promised to improve all through the year, but it hasn't. And so it's a bit of an anchor in business. It's our largest market in Europe. So I suppose if we were to say where it's disappointing, I'd say Germany slightly, not slightly, it's disappointing in relation to how we have a very good system there that hasn't been able to exploit its strategic advantages because we haven't had the volume this year that we would have expected. So if you said where we've fallen down a little bit, it's in our German operations that really haven't hit the ball out of the park. Most other businesses, Gabe, have done okay to our expectations and we've had some very strong performances in places like Spain and the Eastern European businesses. But overall, you know, we would have liked to be a little bit better in Europe. And, you know, why we're not is because I suppose of Germany. And I don't think that's going to be a surprise to you. Obviously, we would have expected slightly more. You know, when we sat here in April and we were talking to you, we would have expected that the Olympics and the European Cup would have brought forward some consumer spending. And while know comparisons are you know getting tougher and we're staying line ball with those comparisons versus last year which is i suppose good thing it's still not you know massive improvement i think we're about three percent two and a half percent up year on year but that's not that's not on the same day basis we're about one percent up on the same day basis in europe uh overall taking into account the week germany not particularly great in france you know so we didn't see the pickup of demand that we would have anticipated when we were sitting here back in April based upon the events that were supposed to happen. But it's not awful either. You know, it's just a big sort of let's get out of the year and let's see if, you know, lower interest rates next year will start to hopefully help consumer spending.
Ken
CFO
I suppose, Gabe, just to add on Tony, you know, where the volumes are sitting in relation to the comps and Relayman Strong, I think it's also fair to say while corrugated pricing is probably down, you know, four odd percent year on year. I think sequentially Q3 over Q2, we saw a bit of improvement there too. So it's not all doom and gloom. It could be slightly better.
Gabe Hady
Analyst, Wells Fargo
No, listen, I mean, I think the data in North America hasn't been great either. Okay, I'm going to try to frame this up for you all. Maybe second half EBITDA combined of 2465 is directionally what we're coming up with. I'm trying to think about kind of calendar 25, and I appreciate you gave us a capex number. If we were to double that, and you already told us the December quarter is tough to predict, and then layer in some $250, $300 million of synergies, would that directionally be what we should be thinking about for 25, and then we can make our own assumptions for volumes? Any other moving parts that you would point us to would be helpful as well.
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
I'm definitely giving that one over to Ken.
Ken
CFO
I can see myself and Tony visually kind of saying, no, you take it, no, you take it. I suppose, Gabe, the first thing to say is we haven't produced a budget for 2025 yet, and we haven't taken it to our board. But I suppose in the round, I don't think your direction of travel is off what we see, because I think if you look sequentially through 2024, you see improvement Q2 on one, as a combined three on two, and indeed four on three, and four on four last year. So I don't think where your starting point is, and as Karen and Frank said, they've taken clarifications they can help you with anyway, but we haven't kind of finished and finalized on a budget for 25 yet. But I don't think your top recess is that off the mark either.
Ken
CFO
And I wouldn't disagree. So we're agreeing. Thank you, John. Okay, thanks.
Sarah
Operator
Thank you. We'll now take our next question. This is from the line of Anthony Pettinari from Citi. Please go ahead.
Anthony Pettinari
Analyst, Citi
Good morning. I was wondering if you could, looking at North America, I was wondering if you could talk about and maybe contrast the performance of the corrugated and the consumer businesses. And Tony, I guess Could you talk about your impressions of the consumer business more broadly, you know, given that it's a little bit of a different exposure than, than this market business?
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
Okay. Well, you know, we have obviously consumer businesses, not just in the United States, but also in, in, in Europe and actually the rest of the world is, which is where WestRock were, were, uh, had businesses. Um, and so my overall impression of the consumer businesses is a very good business, very well run, good equipment. good people. We've segmented it now into three different areas, which are food, into beverage, and into health and beauty. And they're very complementary to our businesses, and we expect to continue to improve those businesses, both through investment and through putting plant-level responsibility back. And as I say, I'd be nothing short of very impressed with the consumer side of those businesses. Still lots to do, and we'd like the market to be a little bit stronger. in certain areas, but overall good. Mill systems for consumer are, you know, certain parts are good. Obviously, there's an issue with SBS in the marketplace, and we need to figure strategically out how to deal with that. Our folding box board machines are, you know, they're smaller than the main competition, but there is basically ourselves and and the main competition, which is graphic packaging. And while we're going to be obviously way smaller mills, but way significantly less capital invested in those mills. So we just need to figure out what's the shape of those as we go forward. With regard to the corrugated business, I think, as I said earlier, I'm pretty happy with all the mills. There's one or two that we'd have a question mark for the long term, but we need to figure those out. But basically, what I've seen is good or very good, and especially internationally when you go to the Mexican mill system or the Brazilian mill system, it's outstanding. And then on the corrugated side, we have certain areas and certain regions that are, you know, we need to, you know, change the focus of certain of the box plants. But, you know, that's work in progress and normal stuff. But, you know, we haven't even started right now, Anthony, in bringing in our innovation from Europe into the United States yet. That's work in progress. That's It's going to take a little bit of time to get the system, as I mentioned on my script, get the systems right, make sure that we have the right person leading that. So a little bit of time to get there before we're able to transfer all the worldwide knowledge of packaging that we have into our corrugated system. But it's coming, and it's going to be huge for our customers, and it's going to be a big opportunity for our customers to have better packaging in the United States.
Anthony Pettinari
Analyst, Citi
Okay, that's very helpful. And then, you know, with your approach to the box business or the carton business and the focus on value over volume, I think you referenced maybe potentially some contracts turning over. And I guess to the extent that you anticipate, you know, maybe some churn in customers or maybe a period where, you know, volumes could be a little bit choppier. How long does that process take to kind of sort that out? I mean, is that? six months or a year or two years?
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
Basically, Anthony, if you have bad business, if you have salespeople who can't replace bad business with slightly better business, then you don't have good salespeople. Obviously, we believe that all the poor business that we will lose or could lose over time um you know will be replaced with better business because you know we will you know there's we're still only i don't know 20 of the market or so so so there's 80 to go for and and you know there's plenty of good business out there as long as you're offering something different and you know this is something that we have been doing for decades i mean you know this is the way that we sell this is the way that we we we don't we don't uh we give our customers better value by producing better boxes rather than just a straight brown box. It doesn't happen overnight, but we will have the systems to be able to give our salespeople the tools to sell better. When you lose a big chunk of business, it might hurt a factory for, let's say, a year, but you typically come back within a year if it's bad business.
Anthony Pettinari
Analyst, Citi
Understood. It's very helpful. I'll turn it over.
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
Thanks, Anthony.
Sarah
Operator
Thank you. We'll take our next question. This is from the line of Matthew McKellar from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Matthew McKellar
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. You talked about retaining and winning business through quality and service improvements, and I think you've talked around quality, but can you maybe give a bit more color here on what execution and service improvement in particular looks like to you and what your focus items are here?
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
Matt, I mean, at the end of the day, you know, we believe in, you know, delivering on time in full at, you know, close to 100%. And, you know, we have a measure in our European business of PPM, parts per million of defects. And, you know, we expect all of our plants to have less than 500 parts per million boxes in defects. And, you know, obviously not all plants are there at the same time. A lot depends on the equipment that you have. A lot depends on the planning systems you have. That depends on your customer mix. But basically, the gold standard is to have a PPM under 300 and an OTIF around 98%. And you've got to be set up for that. It doesn't happen overnight, but that's where we need to get to. Certainly under 500 PCM.
Matthew McKellar
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Thank you. And maybe just one for Ken. In terms of timing, are you able to share whether you'll capture the full benefit of the recent headcount reduction you noted in Q4 or whether there are further cost savings as a result of these reductions that will flow through in 25?
Ken
CFO
Thanks. Most of the headcount reduction in 24 will be trapped in 24. There will be very little bleed over into 25 in that sense.
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
But there is still a lot of re-engineering to be done, Matt. And that's part of the Synergy program.
Matthew McKellar
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Okay, thanks very much. I'll turn it back.
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
Thank you.
Sarah
Operator
Thank you. We'll take our next question. This is from Patrick Mann from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Patrick Mann
Analyst, Bank of America
Good day. Thanks very much for taking the question and for the presentation. I think it's a bit of a follow-up question just on the value over volume approach, which you've mentioned a few times. How should we think about this playing out? I mean, Tony, I was listening to you saying, you know, we can replace bad business with good business over time. So should we think about it as, you know, kind of the same base business, but with improving margins, improving commercial success over time? Or does it end up at least partly that you have a, you know, smaller but more profitable business over time through divestments or closures or restructuring? I mean, just help us through practically how that works. takes hold or gets implemented over time. Thanks.
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
Patrick, thank you. It's a lot of everything there that you've said. I mean, clearly, if you have a number of facilities in the same area, you can rationalize a little bit some of those facilities, and that's something that Legacy Westrock was doing. So that's part of it. But also, it is really about recognizing what you're offering the customer And can you offer him something other than just a brown box? And that is about selling for value rather than just for price. And so our whole ethos has always been in Smurfit Kappa is to deliver something more for customers and understand what the customer's pain is. And each customer has different pain. Some is in the logistics, some is in their sustainability agenda, some is in their own machine line efficiencies. And we have all the ability to offer all of the things for the customer. Each individual customer has different requirements. There are hundreds of thousands of customers. It's not just the big customers that we all know and love. There's many, many small manufacturers around the place, many small businesses that require TLC and help in how to package their products more efficiently. As I say, we do that. That's where we come from. That's what we built our business on. That's what Smurfit Kappa is acknowledged as the leader in Europe by practically every customer. And there's no reason why we won't do that in time in Europe or in the United States and in the rest of Latin America. And you can already see that we're making good progress. We can see we're making good progress. And that's not there yet. And that's the extra 400 plus million that we would expect to get as we move forward. Got it. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Sarah
Operator
Thank you. We'll take our next question. This is from the line of Mark Weintraub from Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Mark Weintraub
Analyst, Seaport Research Partners
Thank you. So there looks like there's a fair bit of capacity coming on in Europe next year. And when sitting in North America when that's happening, we tend to get worried. But I know Europe's a different market, but I don't know it nearly as well as you do. So I was hoping to get some perspective on how we should be thinking about the new capacity that, at least on paper, is supposed to be coming on in Europe next year.
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
Yeah, there's new capacity and it tends to be lumpy. But at the moment, you saw last week, Mark, the announced bankruptcy of an independent papermaker. It's pretty well the same kind of structure in Europe as it is in the U.S. to some extent, that new capacity has to find a home, and if they don't have people to sell it to, they have to take downtime. And we saw that last year, and honestly, with the amount of independents out there who are not doing very well, actually, in the business, you've seen some large groups being sold recently, You know, so you can readily say, well, where is the new capacity going to go? And frankly speaking, you know, there is no answer to that other than downtime, which is what happens during 2022 or 23 when the market got soft. People took a lot of downtime because they had to. And, you know, there just won't be a market for it. And, you know, most of the new capacity market that's coming on in Europe, is owned by people who have existing capacity. So if they take the price down, they're only taking the price down on their other business, and that's not a good strategy. So I suspect there'll be a lot of downtime as this capacity is being introduced or exported out to the rest of the world, which is, generally speaking, Asia or some of the Middle Eastern and other areas.
Ken
CFO
I think the other thing with those lists, Mark, is just remember that they tend to have a
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
rose-colored view on machines starting up a jam one and running full for the year so it tends to the tons never really come on in the way that they're they're listed on those sheets I think we've had we've had new capacity in Europe I mean I've been in the business now for nearly nearly 40 years and it's always been new capacity coming on in Europe it's always been either absorbed our other stuff has been shut down and you know you continue to see non-integrated mills suffering and will continue to suffer if they don't have the integrated strategy, which we and others have.
Mark Weintraub
Analyst, Seaport Research Partners
Thank you very much. You had mentioned smaller machines and folding box work. That's a reference to Coded Recycle Board, I assume? That's not SBS, correct? Is that Coded Recycle Board?
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
That's Coded Recycle, yes. And there are some that are very niche-orientated, Mark. So they're not... They're in areas that are fully integrated, and that doesn't really cause us any particular long-term problem. There are some that we'll just have to continue to look at. Do they have the quality? It's not really do they have the price, because we have almost no invested capital in those businesses, but do they have the quality that is going to be existing in the marketplace going forward? And that's something we'll have to analyze over the next couple of years or so. Thanks very much. Thank you.
Sarah
Operator
Thank you. We'll now take our next question. This is from the line of Gaurav Jain from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Gaurav Jain
Analyst, Barclays
Hi. Good afternoon, Tony and Ken. A couple of questions from me. One is on free cash flow and net debt. So the net debt number is slightly higher than what we had. And this is the first time we have a combined balance sheet. And the free cash flow is lower. So is there some quarterly swing happening and Q4 will be a much better free cash flow quarter than what we had? So that was my question number one. And secondly, you know, you have touched upon U.S. container board, European container board, U.S. consumer board separately. But could you just talk about what you are seeing in the near term because some of your peers are have been sounding concerns, especially on the European container boat side.
Ken
CFO
I think it's probably around pricing, Gaurav. I think what we've seen is broadly flat pricing in North America, but I mean, the European price had gone up by about 140 a ton. It's just come up 40 in the last month or so, so not necessarily a call for concern. As a result of lower waste paper prices. Yeah, on the back of recovered fiber prices dropping also. So I think that's probably where we sit. On the first one, I think... there's probably a bit of a seasonal effect. I think also as recovered fiber drops, you have less creditors. There's a small, bigger creditor outflow than we might have thought, but also sequentially box prices rope. So you get the adverse effect of that, which is a slight more investment in working capital. I think you're probably slightly higher at the net debt level too, because we did get through a fair bit of work in terms of cost and headcount reduction and things like that, that probably drove the number slightly higher. But I think at a kind of combined net debt basis of 2.8 times it's probably not materially higher than where you are. And generally, the back half of the year tends to be slightly more cash-generative. But there's probably nothing fundamental there, but probably the moving parts around where creditors sit and falling prices around some of those creditor items versus investment in working capital as a result of box price increases are probably two big sides. But the inventory tends to be in good shape. So beyond that, they're really the only moving parts.
Gaurav Jain
Analyst, Barclays
Thank you so much.
Sarah
Operator
Thank you. We'll now take the next question. This is from the line of Phil Ng from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Phil Ng
Analyst, Jefferies
Hey, guys. Now that you've had some time to look at your assets, you know, what are some areas where you want to put capital to work, whether it's on the mill level or box side of things? You know, the 2.2 to 2.4 billion capex framework you've provided, is that a reasonable framework for the next few years? And then lastly, when you kind of look at your footprint, any assets that stand out, you know, I know SPS isn't something that you're sure if it's a strategic fit over a long term, but that market's very oversupplied. Is that something you plan to tackle in making sure supply demand is in a better spot, call it in the medium term?
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
Hi, Philip. Yeah, I mean, just on the SBS side, I mean, you know, we're still analyzing that business. You know, we're into it three months now. And, you know, there has been a very, it has been a very good business. We need to figure out how we deal with the imports of the replacement product of SBS into the marketplace, which is FBB. And we need to figure out, you know, where does SBS sit versus that? You know, obviously, the imported product that's replacing it has got some issues attached to that, which are, you know, you've seen the port strikes, you've seen the uncertainty that some of those imports can have. So we're not 100% sure yet where SPS sits, but I would say that, you know, the two big mills that we have are actually good mills. So we need to figure out, you know, and they're very efficient mills. So I think we've got a very good starting point to figure out where do we stand with that grade. It is somewhat integrated. We'd like it to be more integrated, but it's something that we'll have to look at over time. But we're not ready to make a decision on SBS. All I can say is for the moment, it's staying with us. With regard to... Where we put the money. Where we put the money. I mean, you know, We have some work to do on our converting businesses to make sure that they are able to give the quality and service that our customers require and is going to make us different. So we've got some work to do, not necessarily in the consumer side, but more in the corrugated side, but not in a massive way. It's just some of our facilities we need to continue to upgrade. Some have upgraded some of our corrugators And obviously, as I said earlier, maybe some smaller rationalizations as we look forward. So that's probably where we'll be concentrating our efforts, other than the normal maintenance capital, the winders, the electrical things that we have to do and some of the mills that are sort of pretty standard. And then going forward, we are going to develop a plan and we don't know yet whether it's going to sit in the 2.2 to 2.4. are higher than that. I would say it's going to be higher than that because we've got a lot of opportunities as we can see right now, but we want to do that in a more cohesive way rather than just jump into it in our first year. We have initiated a program of what we call quick wins, so anything that has a very quick payback. We just authorized $150 million last week at the board. for some quick wins which have really quick paybacks, like less than two-year paybacks that we can get. And we see a lot more opportunities there, but we just need some time to engineer those correctly. So that's the kind of thing we're looking at. And then obviously as the returns get worse, we'll look at that.
Phil Ng
Analyst, Jefferies
And then I was really impressed by your comment earlier that on the commercial front, you could see another $4 million and potentially unlock that, call it the next 18 to 24 months. So my question really is, do you have the ability to kind of do the Smurfitz kind of things in terms of being decentralized, empowering the people, having the KPIs aligned? Your biggest competitor in the U.S. on the container board side, they're taking... a much more rigorous approach on the commercial side, they're expecting significant disruption on the box side of things. How are you going to manage that process, call it the next 18 to 24 months? It sounds like it might be less choppy, but give us some perspective. That would be helpful.
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
I think it's already happening, Philip. We're already empowering our operations. We've already taken responsibility back to the divisional level and then ultimately drilling down into the regional level and then ultimately delivering down into the plant level now plant level can be two or three plants in a particular region that we we manage with a central central let's say sales service or central purchasing or central administration for three plants but they are in their local market in their local market selling so we're already we've already done that that doesn't mean that every person in our organization is going to be able to make that adjustment but i can tell you that there's a palpable sense of enthusiasm for people to say, okay, we're now responsible for our P&L. I mean, for a plant manager, for a regional manager, as long as they know they're getting the price of paper at the market price, there can be no excuse for not having a decent return. I mean, or a plan to get to a decent return. And that's what we've already implemented. And as I said, that's starting, that's the first 100 days of work, 120 days of work and our team there is rigorously pushing that through and as you've seen that we have already taken out some central staff that is speaking to that particular business model that we have and that's what we've done all of our lives and since the time that we started back in 1934, we have had local plant responsibility and that's what we're gonna continue.
Phil Ng
Analyst, Jefferies
Any thoughts on the disruption the next few years as you kind of transition to this or fairly smooth?
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
Listen, there will always be some, Philip. I don't envisage. I mean, you know, the interesting thing about the Westrock group of companies is many of the managers were already operating in that kind of environment. If you go to Southern Container, you go to the old Rock 10 companies, you know, that were folding carton based. they were all profit responsible in the past. And so for a lot of them, this is, you know, going back to what they knew and what they wanted and what they liked. So it's not rocket science for many of them. For some of them, it will be different and we'll have to adjust as we move forward. But I wouldn't say it would be massively disruptive. Okay. Appreciate all the great color, guys.
Phil Ng
Analyst, Jefferies
Thank you.
Tony Smurfit
CEO, Smurfit Westrock
Thanks, Philip. So I think, operator, we have to, tie up. So, guys, everybody, thank you so much for joining us this morning and this afternoon. Really appreciate your time and we look forward to reporting again at the end of the year and the continued progress of Smurf at Westrock. We're very excited about the future. A lot to do, a lot more to do, a lot done, but an exciting future ahead for us, I'm quite sure. So, thanks for joining and have a good rest of the day.
Sarah
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.
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