The Toronto-Dominion Bank

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the TD Bank Group Q2 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Ms. Brooke Hales. Please go ahead, Ms. Hales.

Thank you, Operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to TD Bank Group's second quarter 2023 investor presentation. Many of us are joining today's meeting from lands across North America. North America is known as Turtle Island by many Indigenous communities. I am currently situated in Toronto. As such, I would like to begin today's meeting by acknowledging that I am on the traditional territory of many nations, including the Mississaugas of the Credit, the Anishinaabe, the Chippewa, the Haudenosaunee, and the Wendat peoples, and is now home to many diverse nations, Métis, and Inuit peoples. We also acknowledge that Toronto is covered by Treaty 13, signed with the Mississaugas of the Credit, and the Williams Treaties, signed with multiple Mississaugas and Chippewa bands. We will begin today's presentation with remarks from Barrett Mizrani, the bank's CEO, after which Kelvin Tran, the bank's CFO, will present our second quarter operating results. Ajay Bambawale, Chief Risk Officer, will then offer comments on credit quality, after which we will invite questions from pre-qualified analysts and investors on the phone. Also present today to answer your questions are Michael Rhodes, Group Head, Canadian Personal Banking, Barbara Hooper, Group Head, Canadian Business Banking, Raymond Chun, Group Head, Wealth Management and Insurance. Leo Salam, President and CEO, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank. And Riaz Ahmed, Group Head, Wholesale Banking. Please turn to slide two. At this time, I would like to caution our listeners that this presentation contains forward-looking statements, that there are risks that actual results could differ materially from what is discussed, and that certain material factors or assumptions were applied in making these forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation represent the views of management and are presented for the purpose of assisting the bank's shareholders and analysts in understanding the bank's financial position, objectives and priorities, and anticipated financial performance. Forward-looking statements may not be appropriate for other purposes. I would also like to remind listeners that the bank uses non-GAAP financial measures, such as adjusted results, to assess each of its businesses and to measure overall bank performance. The bank believes that adjusted results provided readers with a better understanding of how management views the bank's performance. Barrett will be referring to adjusted results in his remarks. Additional information on items of note, the bank's use of non-GAAP and other financial measures, the bank's reported results, and factors and assumptions related to forward-looking information are all available in our Q2 2023 report to shareholders. With that, let me turn the presentation over to Barrett.

Thank you, Brooke, and thank you everyone for joining us today. To start, I want to express that our thoughts are with Albertans in light of the devastating fires. TD has mobilized to provide assistance to impacted customers and colleagues. The bank has also contributed directly to relief efforts and enabled customers to do so as well through branches, phone, and online. In addition, before I review our second quarter, I'd like to provide a few comments on our joint announcement with First Horizon earlier this month. While we are not at liberty to address confidential discussions with our regulators, we are confident the mutual termination was the right decision given the uncertainty in timing of regulatory approvals. This decision provides clarity to our colleagues, our customers, and to you, our shareholders. I want to thank Brian Jordan, First Horizon's President and CEO, and esteem for their partnership and wish them great future success. Now let me turn to the future of our U.S. business. TD Bank, America's most convenient bank, is well capitalized with a stable deposit base and deep customer relationships. We've built a brand that is second to none and the best team in banking. A business model and footprint provide a robust foundation for continued growth. and we are already executing on significant opportunities. TD is strong, resilient, and well-positioned to build on our momentum in the months and years ahead. Let me now turn to our results. Q2 was a good quarter for TD. Earnings were $3.8 billion and EPS was $1.94. There were many moving parts this quarter. with strength in our retail businesses, while wholesale banking was impacted by challenging market conditions. Revenue grew 14% year-over-year, driven by margin expansion. This was offset by higher provision for credit losses and increased expenses, reflecting the inclusion of Cowan, investments in colleagues and business growth, and the impact of foreign exchange. PTPP was over 6% year-over-year, as CD's business fundamentals remain strong. Our longstanding strategic focus on gathering core deposits across our North American franchise continues to be a significant competitive advantage, particularly in the current operating environment, amid increased competition for deposits. And as expected, we saw some credit normalization this quarter, but credit performance remains robust. The bank's CET1 ratio was 15.3%, reflecting organic capital generation offset by the impact of the carbon acquisition. Beginning with the dividend declared today, we have decided to remove the discount to the shares issued under our dividend reinvestment plan. And to offset the discounted shares issued under the DRIP, today we announce our intention to repurchase up to 30 million common shares for cancellation subject to regulatory approval. Depending on market conditions, we expect to complete this share buyback by the end of the summer, at which point we will assess the opportunity for further buybacks. We have a strong capital position, which provides flexibility in an uncertain operating environment. We are pleased to be able to return capital to shareholders while simultaneously accelerating investments to drive profitable growth across attractive opportunities. For example, in the U.S., We're increasing new store openings by 50% and doubling wealth advisor hiring. In Canada, we are expanding hiring of frontline and specialist advisors and accelerating investment to upgrade platforms and enhance digital and mobile capabilities across our businesses. You will hear more about these strategic growth initiatives in the weeks and months to come. Turning to our Canadian personal and commercial banking segment, We delivered earnings of $1.6 billion, reflecting revenue growth of 11% and significant positive operating leverage. In the personal bank, we saw robust growth in everyday banking with sales up 28% year-over-year. And to help build confidence for newcomers to Canada, we enhanced our online appointment booking capabilities to enable customers to book appointments in their preferred language. The bank delivered industry-leading market share gains in core deposits, putting TD's market share at almost 26%. In credit cards, we saw record organic Q2 loan growth of 14% year-over-year and the highest quarter ever for active accounts and digital acquisition. TD recently launched an exclusive Canadian bank offer with Uber, adding to the list of leading global consumer brands that partner with TD, including Air Canada, Amazon, Expedia, and Starbucks. In real estate secured lending, we saw strong sequential volume growth. Our teams also delivered the highest quarterly retention rates since 2008. The business bank achieved double-digit loan growth for the seventh consecutive quarters. In the first phase of a multi-year initiative to modernize our customer and credit platforms, almost 3,000 business bankers across our footprint began using a new relationship management tool that will lead to improved customer experience and increased efficiency. NTD Auto Finance was ranked the highest in dealer satisfaction among non-captive, non-prime lenders with retail credit, for the sixth year in a row in the J.D. Power 2023 Canada Dealer Financing Satisfaction Study. Turning to the U.S., a U.S. retail bank delivered another strong quarter with earnings of $944 million U.S., up 23% year-over-year, reflecting revenue growth of 24% and record positive operating leverage. With the contribution from our investment in Schwab of 185 million U.S. dollars, segment earnings were U.S. 1.1 billion U.S. dollars. We saw robust loan growth again this quarter, with personal loans and business loans up 12% and 9% respectively year over year. TD also has strong momentum in customer acquisition, with new business checking accounts up 29% year over year. We continue to invest in our U.S. credit card business, where we have significant opportunity to expand our lending footprint and deepen relationships with existing deposit customers. Earlier this month, we launched TD Clear and TD FlexPay, innovative new cards that offer compelling value propositions to accelerate TD's growth in the market. The bank also enhanced benefits to the popular TD Cash and Double Up credit cards, and made significant advancements in our card servicing and digital capabilities. These investments are supported by TD's recent renewal of its agreements with Visa in Canada and the United States. Further driving organic growth, TD Bank, America's most convenient bank, has an ambitious plan to open 150 new stores by 2027. We're on track to open a total of 18 stores in 2023, with five already up and running. Earlier this month, we were excited to open our first store in Charlotte, North Carolina. When TD entered each of New York City, Philadelphia, Boston, and Miami, we meaningfully outgrew peers, and I'm confident that we will have the same success in Charlotte. Today, nearly 80% of TD's deposits are in the MSAs where we have a top three position as customers respond to our model by entrusting us with more of their business. and the bank continues to receive recognition for its unique and inclusive culture. In April, TD was once again named one of America's best employers for diversity by Forbes, moving up to number two spot out of 500 companies ranked. In wealth management and insurance, we earned $563 million this quarter. Revenue was up 2% year over year, reflecting the strength of our diversified business model as higher insurance volumes and the benefit of higher interest rates helped offset the impacts of trading normalization and market volatility. TD Direct Invest continued to widen the gap to peers with gross new accounts and trading market share increasing year over year. And we rolled out a series of enhancements to TD EasyTrade, adding streamlined access to ready-made TD one-click ETF portfolios, and more self-service capabilities. TD Asset Management widened its lead versus competitors as the number one Canadian institutional asset manager and the number one money manager for Canadian pension assets. TD Asset Management also led the banking industry in long-term mutual fund sales in the quarter and leverages brought product shelf to grow ETF market share. In advice, We continue to invest for future growth, adding over 500 advice professionals in the past year. And on the insurance side, we launched small business insurance this quarter. A direct-to-consumer offering is resonating with customers, and TD is uniquely positioned to satisfy this unmet need in the marketplace. We are Canada's number one direct insurer, and building on our digital leadership with almost one in four new sales across our insurance business, completed online from end to end this quarter. In wholesale banking, we delivered a net income of $213 million. Despite weaker market conditions, revenues were up 13% year over year, driven by the carbon acquisition and growth in transaction banking and lending. This was more than offset by an increase in expenses reflecting the carbon acquisition and the impact of investments in colleagues made throughout the year. The dealer has added almost 100 new corporate lending relationships over the past year, extending approximately $34 billion in additional loan commitments across a diversified range of industries. TD Securities was proud to be one of three banks shortlisted by Global Trade Review for the top North American leaders in trade award for its trade finance offering. And our integration with Cowen is well underway. In fact, Only one day after closing, TD Cowen acted as bookrunner on its first equity offering. And since then, TD Cowen has bookrun 13 equity offerings totaling $3.5 billion. This is just the beginning as we leverage our new capabilities in U.S. equities and extend our competitive advantage. I'm excited to welcome our Cowen colleagues once again and for all that we will accomplish together. Halfway through the year, much has shifted. With the mutual termination of the First Horizon Agreement and deterioration in the macroeconomic environment, we do not expect the bank to deliver adjusted EPS growth in the 7% to 10% medium-term target range in 2023. Despite the difficult operating environment, TD continues to deliver for all of its stakeholders and reimagine financial services to shape the future of banking. I hope you will join us for TD's Investor Day on June 8th, where we will provide more details on the bank's strategy and growth plans with a focus on our Canadian retail businesses. We will hold a subsequent Investor Day to highlight our U.S. and wholesale businesses. TD is forward-focused and purpose-driven, and our TD bankers around the globe bring that vision to life every day. I will close by thanking them for all they do to make TD the better bank. With that, I'll turn things over to Kelvin.

Thank you, Barrett. Good afternoon, everyone. Please turn to slide 9 for Q2. The bank reported earnings of $3.4 billion and earnings per share $1.72, down 12% and 17% respectively. Adjusted earnings were $3.8 billion, up 1%, and adjusted earnings per share was $1.94, down 4%. Reported revenue increased 10% and includes a net loss from mitigation of impact from interest rate volatility to closing capital on the first rise in acquisition. Adjusted revenue increased 14%, reflecting margin growth in the personal and commercial banking businesses, the impact of FX translation and higher advisory fees, equity commissions, and global transaction banking and lending revenue in TD securities. Provision for credit losses was $599 million compared with $27 million in the second quarter last year. Reported expenses increased 16% and include acquisition and integration-related charges. Adjusted expenses increased 12%, reflecting the inclusion of TD Cowan, higher employee-related expenses, the impact of FX translation, and higher spend supporting business growth. Absent the retailer partner's net share of the profits of the U.S. strategic card portfolio, adjusted expenses increased 12.3% XFX. Reported total bank PTPP was up 3% year-over-year. Consistent with prior quarters, block 24 shows how we calculated adjusted total bank PTPP and operating leverage, removing the impact of the U.S. strategic card portfolio along with the impact of foreign currency translation and the insurance fair value charge. Adjusted total bank PTPP was up 6% after these modifications. Please turn to slide 10. Canadian personal and commercial banking net income for the quarter was $1.6 billion, up 4% year-over-year. Revenue increased 11%, reflecting higher margins and rolling growth. Average loan volumes rose 6%, reflecting 5% growth in personal volumes and 11% growth in business volumes. Average deposits rose 2%, reflecting 8% growth in personal deposits, partially offset by a 7% decrease in business deposits. In the current rate environment, we continue to see migration of balances into term deposits and other high-yielding investments. Net interest margin was 2.74%, down six basis points compared to the prior quarter, primarily due to lower deposit margins. Many factors can impact margins, including the path of short-term rates, tractor on and off rates, customer activity, and competitive market dynamics. While margins may bounce around quarter to quarter, we are pleased with the year-to-date margin expansion and expect the return of moderate expansion by the end of the year. Total PCL of $247 million decreased $80 million sequentially. Total PCL as an annualized percentage of credit volume was 0.19%, down six basis points sequentially. Non-interest expenses increased 8% year over year, reflecting higher spend, supporting business growth, including technology, and higher employee-related expenses. Please turn to slide 11. U.S. retail segment reported net income for the quarter was $1 billion U.S., down 3% year-over-year. Adjusted net income was U.S. dollar $1.1 billion, up 19% year-over-year. U.S. retail bank reported net income was $859 million U.S., down 5%. primarily reflecting higher non-interest expenses, including acquisition and integration-related charges for the First Horizon acquisition and higher PCL, partially offset by higher revenue. U.S. Retail Bank adjusted net income was $944 million U.S., up 23%. Reported revenue increased 14% year-over-year. Prior year reported revenue includes an insurance recovery related to litigation. Adjusted revenue increased 24% year over year, reflecting higher deposit margins and loan volumes, partially offset by lower deposit volumes and loan margins and lower overdraft fees. Average loan volumes increased 10% year over year. Personal loans increased 12%, reflecting good originations and slower payment rates across portfolios. Business loans increased 9%, reflecting strong originations from new customer growth. higher commercial annualization, and slower payment rates, partially offset by PPP loan forgiveness. Average deposit volumes, excluding soup deposits, were down 5% year-over-year. Personal deposits were down 3%, and business deposits declined 6%. Balances were impacted by the economic environment and inflationary pressures. We also saw some migration to higher-yielding products, including CDs and non-depository investment opportunities. Sweep deposits decreased 23%. Earlier this month, TD and Schwab amended the insured deposit account agreement to reflect the current market and interest rate environment. The revised agreement extends the term by three years and provides for lower deposit balances in the first six years and higher balances in the latter years. In addition, the agreement increases certainty for TD around future deposit balances and strengthens our partnership with Schwab. Net interest margin was 3.25%, down four paces point sequentially, due to lower deposit margins reflecting higher funding costs. Many factors can impact margins, including the path of short-term interest rates, tractor on and off rates, customer activity, and competitive market dynamics. While we are pleased with the substantial year-to-date margin expansion, we expect downward pressure again on margins in Q3, reflecting intensifying pricing competition in the U.S. market. However, we do expect margins to resume growth a bit moderately, starting in Q4 with new tractor on rates. Total PCL was $140 million U.S., a decrease of $9 million U.S. sequentially. U.S. retail price Net PCL ratio, including only the bank's share of PCL for the U.S. Strategic Card's portfolio, as an annualized percentage of credit volume was 0.33%, lower by one basis point sequentially. Reported expenses increased 17% and include acquisition and integration-related charges for the first rise in acquisition. Adjusted expenses were up 9%, reflecting higher employee-related expenses and higher business investments. The contribution from TD's investment in Schwab was $185 million U.S., up 5% from a year ago, reflecting higher net interest income partially offset by higher expenses, lower asset management fees, and lower trading revenues. Please turn to slide 12. Wealth management and insurance net income for the quarter was $563 million, down 16% year-over-year. Revenue increased 2%, reflecting high investment income in the insurance business, an increase in the fair value of investments supporting claims liabilities and higher insurance volumes, partially offset by lower transaction and fee-based revenue in wealth. ECL for the quarter was $1 million, an increase of $1 million from the prior quarter. Insurance claims increased 36% year-over-year, reflecting the impact of changes in the discount rate, which resulted in a similar increase in the fair value of investments supporting claims liabilities reported in non-interest income, more severe weather-related events, and increased driving activity in inflationary costs. Non-interest expenses decreased 1% year over year, reflecting lower variable compensation, partially offset by higher spend supporting business growth, including employee-related expenses and technology. Asset under management increased 3% year over year, and assets under administration increased 2% year over year, both reflecting net asset growth. Please turn to slide 13. Wholesale banking reported net income for the quarter was $150 million, a decrease of 58% year-over-year. This reflects higher non-interest expenses, which include acquisition and integration-related charges for TD Cowen, partially offset by higher revenues. Adjusted net income was $213 million, down 41% year-over-year. Revenue, including TD Cowen, was $1.4 billion, up 13% year-over-year. Higher revenue reflects higher advisory fees, equity commissions, global transaction banking revenue, and lending revenue, partially offset by lower trading-related revenue. ECL for the quarter was $12 million, a decrease of $20 million from the prior quarter. Reported expenses increased 53% and include acquisition and integration-related charges for TD Cowen. Adjusted expenses increased 44%, reflecting the inclusion of TD Cowen. Continued investments in wholesale banking's U.S. dollar strategy, including the hiring of banking, sales and trading, and technology professionals, and the impact of foreign exchange translation. Please turn to slide 14. The corporate segment reported a net loss of $399 million in the quarter compared with a reported net loss of $151 million in the second quarter last year. The year-over-year increase primarily reflects lower revenue from Treasury and balance sheet management activities, a net loss from mitigation of impact from interest rate volatility to closing capital on first horizon acquisition, and higher net corporate expenses. Adjusted net loss for the quarter was $177 million compared with an adjusted net loss of $79 million in the second quarter last year. Please turn to slide 15. The common equity tier one ratio ended the quarter at 15.3%, down 14 basis points sequentially. We had strong internal capital generation this quarter, which added 28 basis points to CET1. This was partially offset by an increase in RWA net of effects, which decreased CET1 by two basis points. We saw a 14 basis point increase in CET1 related to the issuance of common shares under our dividend reinvestment plan. As Barrett mentioned, beginning with the dividend declared today and until further announcement, there will be no discount to the shares issued under our dividend reinvestment plan. As a reminder, in Q1, we implemented credit risk methodology changes in preparation for Basel III reforms. The implementation of the Basel III reforms had a small positive impact this quarter. The current acquisition decreased CET1 by 55 basis points, inclusive of the increase in RWA and increase in goodwill and intangible deductions. Relating to the First Horizon acquisition, A net loss from the mitigation of the impact from interest rate volatility to closing capital decreased CET1 by two basis points, and an FX hedge increased CET1 by four basis points. All hedges related to the First Horizon acquisition are now closed. RWA, including FX, increased 3.3% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting higher market risk and operational risk RWA, partially offset by a decrease in credit risk RWA. Credit risk RWA decreased $3.4 billion, or 1%, mainly reflecting the impact from Basel III reforms, largely offset by the TD Cowen acquisition and volume increases. Market risk RWA increased $2.2 billion, or 11%, reflecting the impact of the Cowen acquisition. Operational risk RWA increased $19 billion, or 29%, reflecting the impact of Basel III reforms, inclusive of the impact of the Stanford settlement and the TD-Cowen acquisition. The leverage ratio was 4.6% this quarter, and the LCR ratio was 144%, both well above published regulatory minimum. Finally, before I turn the call over to Ajay, I wanted to note that we appreciate that analysts and investors may have questions on the financial impact from the mutual termination of the First Horizon Agreement. We have added slide 26 in this presentation to assist in that regard. With that, Ajay, over to you.

Thank you, Kelvin, and good afternoon, everyone. Please turn to slide 16. Gross impaired loan formations decreased by two basis points to 14 basis points quarter over quarter, reflected in the commercial lending portfolios, partially offset by further normalization off-credit performance in the consumer lending portfolios. Please turn to slide 17. Gross impaired loans were stable quarter over quarter and remained at low levels. Please turn to slide 18. Recall that our presentation reports PCL ratios, both gross and net, of the partner share of the U.S. strategic card PCLs, We remind you that U.S. card PCLs recorded in the corporate segment are fully absorbed by our partners and do not impact the bank's net income. The bank's provision for credit losses decreased four basis points quarter over quarter to 28 basis points. The decrease reflects a smaller performing allowance bill this quarter. Please turn to slide 19. The bank's impaired PCL was 551 million, a decrease of 2 million quarter over quarter. The bank's current quarter impaired PCL rate remained well below 2019 levels. Performing PCL decreased by 89 million quarter over quarter to 48 million. The smaller current quarter provision was recorded across segments. Please turn to slide 20. The allowance for credit losses increased by 168 million quarter over quarter, reflecting an 83 million impact of foreign exchange, current credit conditions, including some credit migration, and volume growth. The bank's allowance coverage remains elevated to account for ongoing uncertainty relating to the economic trajectory and credit performance. In summary, while we've seen ongoing normalization of key credit metrics in the consumer lending portfolios, the bank's credit performance remained strong this quarter, evidenced by gross impaired loan formations, gross impaired loans, and impaired PCLs remaining at low levels. Looking forward, after two quarters of continued strong credit performance, I now expect total PCLs in 2023 to come in near the lower end of my prior guidance of 35 to 45 basis points. However, results may vary by quarter. To conclude, Despite recent challenges for the broader financial sector, TD remains well positioned, given we are adequately provisioned. We have a strong capital and liquidity position, and we have a business that is broadly diversified across products and geographies. With that operator, we are now ready to begin the Q&A session.

Thank you. We will now take questions from the telephone lines. If you have a question and you are using a speakerphone, please lift your handset before making your selection. If you have a question, please press star 1 on the device's keypad. You may cancel your question at any time by pressing star 2. So please press star 1. At this time, if you have a question, there will be a brief pause while the participants register. We thank you for your patience. The first question is from Abraham Poonawalla from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thank you. First question, Bharat, maybe on capital CET1 15.3. It sounds like you have no restriction in terms of what you can do in the U.S. I appreciate you can't talk about whatever the regulatory issue is, but the growth plans that you laid out sounds like TD can go about business as usual or sounds like you're accelerating your growth, but give us a sense of the 15.3 CET1. What is the right capital level that you're managing to and how do you get there in a world where USMNA probably is out of the question for the foreseeable future? Yeah, maybe if you could start there.

Yeah, Ibrahim, you know, great question and nice to talk to you. Firstly, we are going through an uncertain period here from an economic perspective, markets perspective, volatility. So to have the level of capital we have, that is a good thing. It's always good when you have such an uncertainty in the marketplace. Secondly, as you said, we continue to invest in our franchises and over the next little while you'll hear more about it. We will provide detail as to you know how we're thinking about growth and and you know that should be a good discussion and hopefully you'll be able to make it to the Canadian side of that discussion you know in June the 8th when we have our investor day and as I said in my remarks we will have a follow on investor day regarding our US business as well as our wholesale business and You know, targeting capital, I mean, I know last quarter there was lots of discussion by many of you that, you know, what's your path to 12%? And I've laid out a clear path as to how we get to 12%. I guess around 12% would be a good target, you know, based on conditions as we know today. But we continue to see, you know, good growth in our businesses. I'm sure Michael, Leo, Riyaz, and Ray will talk about There's terrific momentum in our businesses, and we're looking forward to deliver the volumes and taking share, which has been the historic advantage TD has had in any type of environment. So I'd leave it at that. As you know, we did announce a buyback of 30 million shares. This is to reflect the shares we had issued under the DRIP in order to finance the First Horizon transaction. Since that deal is now terminated, it makes sense to buy back those shares. We expect to finish that buyback, you know, by the end of the summer or so. And then, of course, we will look at, you know, what makes sense, and, you know, we will be assessing the way forward from that with respect to capital deployment. But my message on capital deployment has not changed. It has been there for a few years. You know, we look at what level of capital we're going to require to support our strategies, our WA growth, market share growth. We have not been shy in deploying our capital where we think we need a capability build. Either we buy or build it ourselves. We look at other opportunistic situations that might present themselves. And we also consider buybacks when appropriate. So thinking of that framework remains unchanged. And I would say that over the next few months, we'll be able to provide more clarity as to how we will deploy our capital going forward.

But Bharat, are you saying that you are able to do M&A? Because it sounded like you may build or buy. Does that mean you can still do M&A if you wanted to? Because the expectation externally is, given this issue that whatever happened to lead to the first horizon termination, you're out of M&A for the foreseeable future. Is that a wrong assumption?

I think to speculate on M&A is always a... It's always a dangerous game because nobody can say it perfectly. But, you know, we've done deals previously on capability bills. I think in Ray's business we acquired Greystone a few years ago. In Riyadh's business we just acquired Cowan. In Riyadh's business we acquired Headlands as well not too long ago. And so it's an ongoing exercise for us, you know, either it's capability bills or, or where there's an extension to our businesses. And we will continue to look at those as they present themselves.

Got it.

I'll read you. Thank you. Thank you. The next question is from Manny Grauman from Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi. Good afternoon. Just to follow up on Ibrahim, Barrett just wanted to better understand how why not be more aggressively buying back shares here given the excess capital position? What's the counterpoint to doing a bigger buyback?

I said, you know, it would take us a bit of time to get the 30 million shares bought, and after that we will reassess. And as I said in my comments, you know, we should be able to complete this phase of the buyback by the end of the summer, and then we will reassess our position, and hopefully by that time we would have also outlined some of our growth plans, and then we can discuss further as to what would be an appropriate level of buybacks.

Got it. And then just focusing in on the U.S., you terminated the transaction with FHM, but you still have a very sizable U.S. business, and I'm just wondering how you view their U.S. regional banking crisis, how that has impacted that existing business, both in terms of good and bad from your perspective.

I'll pass it on to Leo to provide perspective on that. But, you know, we've been in the U.S. for many years. As you said, we have a sizable, you know, great scale business from Maine to Florida that has been a terrific and continues to be a terrific growth engine for the bank. And in this current crisis, you know, in my remarks I said – you know, how many new accounts we are opening, you know, the type of business we're attracting. But Leo can perhaps provide more perspective because, you know, we are viewed as a – we have a brand that is second to none in the U.S., you know, this particular turmoil. We've seen our deposits actually, you know, deposit flow to be attractive. You know, the number of accounts opened at TD is, I think, in some of our businesses, a record. And Leo, why don't you provide some more color?

Sure, Barrett. And Manny, it's good to speak to you. Obviously, the last two months somewhat unprecedented in terms of the activity. You know, the market has continued to see deposit contraction at the industry level. I think overall deposits down about a trillion dollars year on year. That coupled with obviously the liquidity scares that took place. No doubt the regional banks and some of the small banking players that might find themselves with either mark-to-market challenges from a capital standpoint and or commercial real estate concentrations do find themselves in a slightly challenged environment. As Barrett said, I feel really quite positive about our franchise. We've got a very strong deposit base. I think what probably characterizes our footprint in the US is that we've got probably one of the leading retail deposit franchises, and it's held up quite well. In fact, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, retail deposits were essentially flat, and we saw very good account opening volumes. Even on the commercial side of the house, our commercial checking accounts opened in the quarter. We're up 29% on a year-on-year basis. So the franchise continues to perform well. We were resilient from a deposit standpoint. I do think that the market will be tighter as we move forward. We're already seeing tighter credit conditions. And I think given the fact that we've got a strong capital-based liquidity to be able to provide our clients with the support that they need through the cycle, I think we find ourselves in a very good position to be able to consolidate relationships with some of our key clients and be able to take share.

Is growth in the U.S. Southeast still a priority, geographically speaking? I'm sorry, can you say that again, Manny? You know, the big rush, part of the rationale for FHN was growing in the U.S. Southeast fast-growing region. How important is growth in that region, and can you do it organically?

Yeah, very much so, Manny. As Barrett indicated in his opening remarks, we've outlined a plan to open up 150 stores. A very large portion of that is in the Southeast. So think consolidating our footprint in Florida, specifically south, and Central Florida, continuing the expansion in the Carolinas. We already have a very strong footprint in South Carolina. Barrett alluded to the fact that we opened up our first store in North Carolina. I was down in Charlotte, met with the mayor, had a great grand opening. We're going to continue to lean into that market as well. Atlanta is the market. It's the one major metro market where we do not have a significant retail presence, and we're going to lean into that market. We've already got it. an interesting commercial footprint, but we want to continue to expand there. And then selectively, outside of that southeast footprint, there are gaps that we think we have in our urban market centers. So think Boston, Philly, New York, where we think there are expanding communities, growing communities where we'll lean into to sort of round out our existing footprint. But the southeast is going to be a very important part of the overall equation.

Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is from Scott Chan from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thank you. Good afternoon. Maybe I'll stick with you, Leo, on the U.S. side. I noticed that your loan growth was pretty strong quarter per quarter, retail, commercial, and mortgages. And it seems like your peers have kind of stepped back or called out the market conditions. And just wondering if TD is just a bit more aggressive or – How are you getting that incremental market share that we've seen over the past few quarters?

Sure. Sure, Scott. Let me just provide a little bit of color on the numbers because I think it'll help. We were pretty balanced in terms of loan growth in the quarter. Both our personal and our commercial banking businesses, ex-PPP, were up double digits. If you look at the consumer side of the house for just a moment, Rezzle was quite strong. It was up 17% in terms of overall balance growth on a year-on-year basis. I'd like to say that it was powered by significant origination growth. It wasn't. We had solid performance in terms of origination. I think the real story was paydowns. Paydowns are at historical levels, and so obviously what we did originate resulted in good loan growth, and we tend to be slightly undersized in terms of our overall mortgage books. So it provided us a good headline print. Cards, we were really pleased with the cards performance. We saw 9% growth in cards, and the lion's share of that was actually in our proprietary line. So think bank card and our retail card services business were up 15% and 13% respectively. And then the auto business, which obviously has been quite challenged with supply chain issues, saw some very good performance. We were up 6%. And more importantly, we're seeing good risk-adjusted yield expansion in that market. So we're hopeful that will translate into greater profitability. On the commercial side, we continue to do well from a commercial standpoint. I think a combination of factored plays played into it. We saw a little bit more growth than we did in previous quarters in the small business and the community regional segments. Commercial real estate is still somewhat sluggish, as you would expect. We've been cautious in that area. We've been quite deliberate over the past three, four years, and we've reduced our overall exposure to commercial real estate. But we saw good, solid growth in the mid-market and the C&I community, and the pipeline is remain strong. I'll just caution a little bit that I think the outlook, the debt ceiling discussions, I could see a little bit of moderation in that commercial, I'm sorry, in the commercial banking space, at least in the near term. But I'm still quite confident that once again, given our capital, our liquidity position, we'll be able to support clients through the cycle.

Thanks, Leo. And maybe just for Riaz on capital markets, I would suspect that two months of Cowan would have held up profitability in the segment. It seems like Cowen's run rate of profit is about $15 million a quarter in the normal market. So can you help us maybe unpack where the shortfall came? Was it your core business, Cowen, or just market factors?

Scott, thanks for that. Look, I think overall the quarter continued to – we continued to kind of navigate a difficult operating environment with kind of mixed results by business. So overall trading results, equity underwriting and USMNA were revenue headwinds this quarter, which we were able to partially mitigate with very strong loan demand, transaction banking results, and also Canadian M&A revenue was spectacular for us this quarter given we were able to close three or four transactions that had already been in the pipeline. So all in all, kind of a mixed result on revenue with a 14% growth. I think U.S. equity and M&A would have been fantastic. lighter by U.S. $50 to $75 million, let's say, on what our overall expectation would have been. But as you say, thrilled to close the acquisition of Cowen. We had a nice pickup in equity commissions and a little bit of contribution on the advisory side and expect a strong pickup in revenue and markets turn more favorable. And then on the expensive side, we've been talking about the significant investments we've made in growing our U.S. platform and now including the acquisition of Cowen. So all in all, I think I'm really quite excited and optimistic to prepare TD Securities and Wholesale Bank for its next phase of growth. But I do expect revenue and expense numbers over the next couple of quarters to remain a bit bumpy as we adjust and optimize business mix and deepen the integration. So I think we'll hit more of a run rate stride by fiscal 24.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Thank you. The next question is from Doug Young from Desjardins Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Good afternoon. I guess the question is for Kelvin. In your prepared remarks, you talked about NIMS in Canada and the U.S., and it sounds, and correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like you expect some moderation from in Q3, and then a return to modest expansion in Q4, and then it sounds like maybe going into fiscal 24, but I don't want to put words in your mouth if you correct me if I'm wrong, but what I'm trying to figure out is what's driving that? Is it just the pickup and tractors in Q4? What gives you the confidence that it will start to moderately expand to Q4 going forward?

Thanks, Doug. Yes, it's Kelvin here. That's correct. The tractors are going to be supporting that trend. Obviously, there are many factors that impact margin. It's not just about rates, but also competitive behaviors as well. But when you're looking at rates, what we benefited from over the last year are rise in short-term rates, which have a more immediate impact. And then now we're looking at tractors coming on, with tractors on rates being higher than the off rates. And so that's going to be supportive of margin expansion, but more gradually than what normally you see in short-term rates increases.

Is there a reason why it's Q4, and is there a structural reason why there's a delay and you don't see that unfolding in Q3?

Well, it really depends on what the rates were five or seven years ago. And as these tractors price in every month, it's like a laddered bond portfolio that gets repriced. And so bit by bit, it actually helps with the margin, which is very different than if you have a short-term rate on – on float rate investment because when there's a change in central bank rate, then that entire deposit investment from those deposits get repriced, whereas tractors is one fraction of that every month, and then over time it builds.

Yeah, no, I understand. And you haven't disclosed the size of that tractoring portfolio or have you, or would you be willing to?

No, we haven't disclosed that detail.

Okay. All right. And my second question is, I guess in the U.S., you had a decline in sweep deposits from Schwab, 11%, quarter over quarter. I think I kind of get what drove it, but can you talk a bit about what drove it? And can you talk a bit about the new sweep deposit agreement and how that impacts the economics for TD going forward versus the the old agreement, and what are the puts and takes that we should think about?

Yeah, this is Leo. I can take that. Maybe just to start with the quarter itself. So sweeps closed the quarter at about $110 billion. It was down 23%. And essentially, as would have been reported by Schwab, a lot of that is simply clients' cash sorting or looking for brokerage, fixed income, yield pickup, vis-a-vis deposit sweeps. So a very expected sort of behavior amongst clients that are investing with Schwab for investment returns. We do expect that trend to continue, albeit maybe moderate a bit as we think about the subsequent quarter. I think we're quite pleased with the new agreement. Kelvin outlined the basic terms of the agreement. It essentially extends the agreement with Schwab for another three years. and it increases our long-term floor in that agreement up to $60 billion, which is certainly important to us in terms of preserving that strategic relationship. We do provide greater flexibility for them to accommodate some of that cash sorting behavior that's taking place. We would expect more down draft into 2024. We think that the actual impact on that is going to be manageable and something that can certainly be absorbed within the overall revenue performance in the business.

Am I right that you're sharing more of the yield on those sweep deposits in the new agreement with Schwab versus prior because you're reflecting, obviously, the current rate environment versus the way it was structured before? Am I right to think of it like that? No.

No, no, the actual economics on the actual sweep structures themselves, that hasn't changed. The only fundamental change is providing a lower floor that gives them greater flexibility in terms of equity management in the short term. Okay, appreciate it.

Thank you. Thank you. The next question is from Paul Holden from CIDC. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thank you. Good afternoon. A couple questions related to the U.S. retail business. I guess first off, just looking at the increase in average FTE across the different segments, I noticed U.S. retail is up 12% year over year, pretty significant. So maybe you can talk about some of those investments you've made in the FTE. What specifically are those for? Are those related to the new upcoming store openings, or is it a separate investment?

Paul, thanks for the question. Actually, three sources, just to maybe oversimplify a bit. One, a portion of that is just returning staffing levels to pre-pandemic levels in all of our front-facing areas. So think the stores, the call centers. We had experienced attrition through the pandemic, and now we're returning that. And fortunately, that increase is translating into better customer satisfaction scores. We're quite pleased with that investment. The second grouping is a very deliberate investment in our digital technology and data initiatives. It's a major thrust. Not only are we trying to grow the store network, which has historically been a real asset for TD in the States, but we're also complementing with a big push on digital and mobile and those investments and that staff complement is supporting the delivery of some critical initiatives there. And the third was actually resources for the First Horizon integration program. And so what you would expect us to do is unwind those resources. We're gonna do that gradually, obviously, where we have an opportunity to be able to backfill into our core franchise, we'll certainly do that. we'll see a reduction there with regards to the overall integration resource that we had put in place.

Okay, that's great color on that. And then I want to ask a question on the planned store opening. So I think we'll all agree it's the right long-term strategy, but we also know the market can get a little bit fussed around the growth and expenses ahead of the planned revenue benefit. So just wondering how you're trying to how you plan on sort of legging in these store openings, if there's any planned expense efficiencies against it, or maybe just give us a general sense of how you visualize the expense growth in the U.S. business as a result of this plan strategy.

Sure. Paul, and Barrett talked about trying to do an investor day, and I look forward to being able to share maybe the more fulsome strategy with you, but We're essentially looking to invest in four critical areas, our consumer distribution expansion, the store expansion that we talked about, leaning into digital and mobile capabilities and making sure that we're delivering a commensurate legendary experience through those digital assets, growing our cards franchise, and then finally building out our national commercial banking footprint. Underpinning all of that is a very deliberate productivity program. focused on identifying structural opportunities to not only fund these programs, but hopefully give us some sort of capacity for what might be declining rate cuts in the future. So productivity is going to be a very important part. We've already enacted some of those measures. You would have seen our expense growth rate on a quarter-on-quarter. We were down 3.8%. and we will continue to lean in on trying to partially fund some of our critical investment and critical growth initiatives. So that will certainly be part of the strategy.

Got it. Okay. Thank you. I'll leave it there.

Just maybe, Paul, one thing, Leo, is we're making early days but certainly strong progress on growing our U.S. wealth business in partnership with Leo's retail and commercial business. And so, again, Some of the FTE that you'd see that we're making investments in the U.S. is actually to accelerate our advisors in the U.S. footprints in sort of our four major markets. And we've taken our playbook here, our very successful playbook, on how to build out a financial planning business for the mass affluent, affluent clients from Canada. And we're exporting that into the United States and already seeing very early promising signs.

Thank you. The next question is from Gabriel Deschain from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. I'll rapid-fire these. The U.S. business, I saw that you used a few more federal home loan bank deposits. Just wondering why you tapped that funding source, higher cost, given that your balance sheet in the U.S. is so liquid to begin with. Then the wealth business in Canada, primarily, I saw transaction revenues down 35% year over year. I'm wondering how much of that is caused by fee impact or changes to your fee structure versus just market behavior subdued. And then on the wholesale business, I get markets weren't favorable this quarter, but operating leverage was quite negative this quarter, and I'm wondering how You're thinking about the combined Cowan and your legacy business and the cost base there, basically.

Gabe, why don't I take the first one with regards to FHLB borrowings. Borrowings in the quarter went up to $19.5 billion up from $10 at the end of last quarter. We typically use it as a temporary bridge source of liquidity. Sometimes it is more economic to do that than breaking into an investment position that hasn't yet matured. To give you a sense, we've already on a spot basis today, those borrowings are back down to $11.5 billion. It's simply a transitional source of funding for us.

It's Raymond. If I think about Canadian wealth, the question you had on fee income, I would say similar to the rest of the industry, there's probably three headwinds that are impacting fee income. One is equities, and with the S&P on average down about 8%, that will have headwinds on our fee income side of the business. The other piece is trades per day, and trades per day continue to normalize in our direct investing business. still down about 29% on a year-on-year basis. It's still up from pre-pandemic levels, but we're still seeing a normalization on trades per day. And then like the rest of the industry, a deposit mix with a higher interest rate environment that we're in, we're certainly seeing some of our deposits staying within the TD family, but moving to more interest-bearing products like GICs in the short term. What I would say, though, is the fundamental of the business I'm very pleased with is continuing to see very strong net asset growth, which is leading to market share gains across all of our wealth management businesses. And so whether that's in our institutional asset management business, we're widening our market share lead there. We're picking up more from a market share on trades in general in the direct investing business. We picked up market share in new accounts in direct investing. and continue to be the fastest-growing private wealth management business in Canada. So the fundamentals of the businesses are strong, and I think the impact that you're seeing on fee income are more industry-related at this moment.

Yeah, I was asking specifically about the trades. That's a volume client behavior thing. Because you have tweaked your fee structure a bit, and you're telling me that hasn't really had an impact there.

It's had nominal impact on the introduction of that.

Okay, thanks.

Abe, I'd just add on the wholesale side that, as you know, we've been building out our U.S. capabilities for a number of years now, and essentially the Cowen acquisition was about that. And you'll remember when we announced the transaction, we said that the transaction was not about cost synergy. And I'm I think as we move things around and optimize things, we'll find some efficiencies, but clearly with the weaker markets, we're going to go through a little bit of an S-curve to build up the revenue with the elevated cost base. But look, I think I have to say to you that from the announcement of the transaction and now since closing, we're kind of 90 days since closing, There is such an overwhelmingly positive reaction from our clients, both legacy TD Securities as well as legacy Cowen clients, as to what we can do together and as the teams have started to work together, we're already involved in so much dialogue as a combined firm with our clients that we could have not done individually on our own. I feel incredibly positive about the acquisition and the transaction, and I think it would be a mistake to start unwinding the capabilities we just acquired. So I think the platform will require a little bit of patience to continue to prepare for better performance, but I feel very good about where we are, especially in light of the incredible client feedback we've been getting.

All right. Thanks for all that. Have a good day.

Thank you. The next question is from Lamar Perso from Commerx Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thanks. I appreciate the commentary on the segmented margins, but I'm wondering, does that translate through to the all bank level? So we should expect a pause on expansion of the all bank level for Q3 and then expansion again in Q4. Is that fair?

Generally speaking, there is a correlation, but at the total bank level, assuming you mean X trading, the core NIM, you also have impact on some of our hedging activities, like in corporate, and also the sweep deposit that is not included in the US P&C business. And then generally, we don't talk about the trade... the non-trading name of TD Securities, but they do have that impact as well as wealth and insurance. Those are some of the components that could be refined in terms of estimate versus the two big U.S. P&C businesses.

So it depends on the movement of those other factors. You're not offering any guidance at the all bank level.

Yeah, because those ones, like if you look at the hedging stuff, that could bounce around in corporate. But I think the important thing is that for the fundamentals of our retail businesses, that is what we expect for those segments.

Okay. Okay. That's fair. And then maybe for AJ, but can you talk a little bit about the office portfolio? How much of that is Canada versus U.S.? And, you know, should we expect some rising losses on this portfolio moving forward?

Thanks. I'm happy to respond. So office, I'd say, overall is about 11% of total CRE. And as a percent of total bank loans and BAs, it's 1%. So it's quite small. $3 billion of that. which is approximately 30% of our loan exposure of 10.3 in office is Canada. And that's largely in the GTA and the GVA. And it's spread across A, B, and C properties. The one distinguishing factor in Canada is that you have meaningful recourse to guarantors. And the portfolio is performing at present quite well. In the U.S., our exposure is $7.3 billion. 70% of that is in major metros and a significant portion of our exposure is actually Class A properties. If I look at both Canada and the U.S. across Office Cree, I would describe the classified exposure or what we would call watch exposure and impairment levels to currently be low. However, there is migration occurring on the portfolio. And what we've done as a bank is we've stress tested our office portfolio. So we've looked at rates, a rate stress, a lease renewal stress, and a value stress. And we find ourselves already well reserved for such stress because we didn't release our CRE reserves. We kept most of our CRE reserves and our CRE reserves overall are approximately two and a half times pre-COVID levels. So we feel were well-reserved from what data we know today. And overall, I'd say we draw comfort from the fact that, you know, we do have a lot of depth of experience in this space. And as I said, the reserve levels give me comfort as well. So hopefully that's enough color for you.

Yeah, that's really helpful. Thanks. That's it from me.

Thank you. The next question is from Juho Kim from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi. Thank you. Good afternoon. I just had a quick question, and I wanted to ask on capital deployment, and I appreciate that you will provide more clarity as we look ahead, but I wanted to see if you could discuss sort of beyond the U.S. retail banking space where you're seeing some interesting opportunities. Could we maybe see the bank do something in the wealth space in Canada, or would the bank even consider sort of an out-of-footprint acquisition opportunities as we look ahead? I'm just trying to get a general sense, so any color commentary would be helpful. Thank you.

You know, it's hard to speculate on M&A. You know, it's difficult to say where because, you know, these opportunities present themselves when market conditions allow them. But as you've seen, you know, in Canada, whenever there is an opportunity, you know, TD looks at it very seriously, given our size, scale, and the number of customers we have. And I pointed out an example of TD Greystone was a terrific acquisition. It was about three years ago, four years ago. And we continue to monitor the market for, you know, what is possible. and what would make sense for us. The important thing to note is that, you know, at TD, we are disciplined on this. I mean, just because we have the capital, we don't want to chase everything that's out there. You know, it has to make strategic sense. It has to make financial sense. It has to be, you know, within our risk appetite. It has to be culturally aligned. You know, we have a very disciplined approach on this, but if a transaction were to fit all that, And then, of course, we look at it very seriously.

Thank you. That's it for me.

Thank you. The next question is from Suran Movahedi from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thank you. I realize we've gone fairly long here, but thank you for taking my questions. Without going into the details of the regulatory constraints, if you will, in the U.S., can you comment if resolving those issues will mean elevated spending in the foreseeable future?

You know, it's... The bank spends, how much do we spend in a year, Kelvin? I think it's $20-odd billion. The scale of TD is quite large. Whether we have to spend on this or that, of course there's a prioritization required, as you would expect in any business. It's normal course stuff to continue to look at opportunities to invest in our platforms. And you heard some of the things that Leo was talking about, and that's an investment. And I would add, and I think the question was, because the expenses are up front and the returns are later on, but at TD we've had a tradition of doing what is right over the long term. I mean, we don't see, you know, we don't look at what's our quarter to quarter. Of course, you know, you look at it and we take it seriously. But the whole plan here is that are we creating long-term sustainable shareholder value or not? And that's the way you should think about it. And I'm surprised, you know, my friend Michael Rhodes is sitting here and he's got such a great story. So I'm going to pass it on to him. Talk about what are you doing in the biggest business we have within the TD family. Barrett, thank you for the question.

But just can I – sorry, Mike, I would like to hear from you. But my question is resolving the regulatory issues in the U.S. So I would love to hear from Canada for sure, but the issues in the U.S., will it require elevated spend? Do you have to spend money to resolve the issues in the U.S. with the regulators?

You know, when the time is right, we will talk more about it. We've got an investor day coming for the U.S. as to, you know, what our spend levels will be and how we'll be spending it and what categories we'll be spending. So stay tuned, you know, Saurabh, on that. But the U.S., you know, I like the question, the FTE increase in the U.S. and the investments, you know, continue to be, you know, at quite a pace in the U.S., and I don't see that changing.

So, Barrett, you still want me to answer your question? Yes. Okay. Thank you for the question, Barrett. But you think about obviously a lot of great things going on across the enterprise. And throughout the conversation, Leo, Ray, and others have used the word fundamentals quite a lot. And I'm going to use the word fundamentals also. And I think about the fundamental of the Canadian personal bank. are really quite strong and particularly strong this quarter. You know, Barrett, you mentioned your introductory comments, 20% growth in everyday bank accounts on a year-over-year basis. Check-in accounts, savings accounts, credit card accounts, and relative to pre-pandemic, more than 20% growth, so we're doing very well there. Our core check-in accounts in the second quarter are the best ever. The core check-in account is a franchise account from which, like all other sorts of goodness, happens in terms of deepening relationships. Our net customer growth is the best we've seen in years. Our deposit growth is $20 billion on a year-over-year basis, 8%. Our cards growth was 14%, and we continue to expect strong growth on an ongoing basis. Our new account acquisition has been strong, and we haven't quite returned to pre-pandemic. In fact, we have a ways to go to return to pre-pandemic levels on revolve rate. Our resal growth was the best sequentially in the marketplace, if you actually look on a spot basis. And recognize the market has been slow for real estate in general, but we're certainly seeing green shoots. And it's not just the retention that's been very strong, but our acquisition pipeline has been good. And then year on year, we've added hundreds and hundreds of new advisors. And so our fundamentals are strong, and we feel good with the pipelines we have to drive continued growth on an ongoing basis. And it's really across the franchise now between Leo, Barb, Ray, and myself, and Riaz. feel good about how we're positioned. Thank you, Michael.

Michael, thank you very much. I hope you didn't front run your June 8th event. Can I ask a second question since you answered Barrett's question? I guess my second question, again, for the team is obviously nice to have the elevated capital levels. How much does the ROE drag from that elevated capital level factor into the urgency to deploy it?

So we generate good returns, Saurabh. You know, if you look at our ROEs, you know, we like where we are. It's well in excess of our cost of capital, and it's within the range that you see historically from TD. So, you know, we feel comfortable, and like I said, You should not assume that just because we have capital in our pockets that it's burning a hole there, and then we need to be impatient as to how we manage that. It is important that we look at the environment, look at what our own growth plans are, and those things are important factors for us. The ROE drag is something that I'm sure Calvin will keep on calculating, but we feel pretty comfortable as to where we are.

Thank you. Thank you. Okay. The next question is from Nigel D'Souza from Veritas Investment Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Just a couple of quick thoughts. First on deposits, wondering if you could Expand on the trends you're seeing for migration of term deposits. What's the rate of that migration this quarter versus last quarter for UC so far in Q3? And on the U.S. retail side, any color on trends you're seeing specifically for non-interfering and uninsured deposits?

Okay. First was Canada. Okay, first was Canada. Okay. Sure, you know, a great question. And, well, first of all, I may just start with sort of stating the obvious, that our strategy is to grow our core deposit franchise, and we pick our spots to compete, and we've been obviously very pleased with the results we've seen so far this year. And, you know, one thing I should probably underscore, which I didn't mention earlier, is, you know, New to Canada is really doing a great job of actually fueling our core customer relationship growth and certainly our core deposits. And so when you look at our total deposits of $22 billion on a year-over-year basis, you can then disaggregate core deposits from term deposits. And you'll see two things as we look at the data. First, one is that our overall mix of core deposits is better in the marketplace. And then second is if you look at the trend lines of the marketplace, everyone's seen some degree of migration, but we're seeing less migration than others in the marketplace. And so I actually feel very good about where we are in terms of our overall mix, our deposit behaviors. And it certainly brought to the marketplace both an absolute level one in trend line. We look quite good.

And Nigel, I'll just add, it's Raymond that, and I said it a little bit earlier, from a wealth perspective, we are definitely seeing some of our deposits from our cash and mutual funds moving to more interest rate sensitive products like GICs, high interest savings accounts. And so what you'll see is the deposits are moving from the wealth business, but they're actually staying inside the TD franchise and moving into Michael's personal deposits. And so net net, you're seeing still us retaining our deposits. What I would say is that migration has definitely slowed significantly. And so We do think, hopefully, that we've reached the bottom of that piece of it. And those deposits that are sitting in GICs, they're sitting in short term. And so we do see, as the markets do turn, the opportunity for those funds to come back into the equities. Before Leo takes it, Barb, you want to comment on business deposits as well?

Yeah, the story is similar. We are also focused on core deposits, and our core deposit business remains very strong and stable. We have seen core deposits move into term deposits. We're very price disciplined on term deposits and they really for the majority of our clients aren't franchise type deposits. They're very transactional and so we don't write business to any great extent that is not economically attractive for us and so That's what we've seen. Is it slowing? I'd say we saw some slowdown in April. One month doesn't make a trend, so we'll have to wait and see.

And Nigel, maybe just giving you a sense of what are some of the underlying trends. Earlier in previous quarters, we were seeing some of the excess pandemic deposits running out of what I would call the mass retail and small business client bases. We didn't see that this quarter. In fact, retail deposits under $100,000 actually increased overall despite the uncertainty in the marketplace. So we felt really good about that sort of core retail and small business client franchise. Where we're seeing more migration is obviously clients, mass affluent, high net worth clients on the retail side and your institutional larger corporate mid-market players which are actively yield-seeking. To give you a sense, in our commercial banking business, we had just three very large clients move significant amount of deposits into TD Wealth and secure brokerage returns that are better than what they were securing previously with Sweep. We're still seeing that at the margin. Now, medium-term rates have come off a little bit. Some of that may not be quite as attractive as it might have been, but I still think there's going to be some yield seek that's likely to take place in the market. We have looked at our pricing. I think our pricing is solid, but given the strength of our deposit, we certainly aren't pricing at the margin. I think we've got a strong core, and I think we can defend our current pricing in places.

Got it. And could you also comment on the level of excess deposits that may be tied down into rising debt service costs or potential behavior changes by your clients? In Canada, I guess, it's focused, and maybe in the U.S. Maybe on variable mortgages, are you seeing higher paydowns to kind of manage the renewal payment shock, or what are you seeing on the excess deposit side?

So, you know, if I look at our deposit book in a situation where we both obviously the mortgage and the deposits, it's actually interesting. On average, we're actually seeing more discretionary reduction in spend in customers who don't have a mortgage than who do have a mortgage. And so mortgage customers in general are handling things very well. And then when you look at, you know, customers who have renewals coming up, you know, again, we're seeing that customers are, you know, making very modest shifts in the discretionary behavior. You get to trigger rate customers, there's a bit more of a shift, but overall across the board, our customers are handling the increased payments on their mortgages, I think, quite, quite well.

I agree with that. And actually, the deposits, I look at the numbers quite closely, are going to be well above pre-COVID levels. It's not only Canada, it's the United States as well. And again, our experience is as customers are reaching their rate reset dates. They're doing the right thing. Some of them are even taking actions earlier. So the overall quality we're seeing on Rizzle, but even on the variable interest rate mortgage book is good, and it's really no difference. So customers are, at least so far, adapting quite well.

And Nigel, I would just add from a pay down perspective in the U.S., we're still at historical lows. Obviously, we don't have the the same variable pricing challenges that the Canadian market has. We're seeing record low pay down activities in terms of the reso book. Likewise, on the commercial side, pay downs were down significantly in the quarter. That's contributing to some of the actual loan growth that we're seeing over the past couple of quarters.

That's helpful. That's just for me. Thank you.

Thank you. The last question will be from Mike Rizvanovic from KBW Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi. For Michael, I think part of your great Canadian story is your residential mortgage book. So just looking at your market share gains, it looks like it was pretty much across the board. Every region you picked up share among the big five this quarter. And my question is, how highly correlated is that to your margin compression in Canadian PNC Banking? I'm not sure how spreads acted in the quarter in the mortgage lending business, but was that a meaningful impact to the margin downside that we saw?

I can make this answer very short. No, that was not a meaningful impact. The mortgage performance that we had was just from a combination of very strong retention of our existing book, And I think we're just getting better and better at winning new business on the front end. And so that would not have had a meaningful impact on the margin at all.

Okay, thanks, Matt. And then just a really quick one for Barrett, and sorry to kind of keep circling back to this, but with respect to whatever it is going on with the regulators in the background, can you at least delineate if this is in any way impactful on your ability to deploy capital in non-deposit-taking institutions? I think it's a fair assumption that we're all making that you can't buy another bank, hence FHM got canceled. But what about if you were to look at like a wealth or capital markets acquisition? Is it any different or does the same whatever issue is going on in the background impact, you know, put the whole thing on, I guess, on hold in terms of capital deployment? Is there a difference between the two?

Well, it depends, you know, what it is. And, you know, approvals take time. And so we'll have to assess depending on, you know, what kind of opportunity there is in the market. And, Mike, you know, as you know, I can't comment any further. But, you know, we look at all kinds of transactions, and many of them don't make sense. It's hard to speculate on, you know, what we would do or what we would not do.

Okay, so you are open to other types of M&A, not just necessarily deposit-taking institutions. Is that a fair assessment?

Riyaz just signed a big check and bought, you know, talent, so.

Okay, all right. Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I will talk, sorry, turn the call back Back over to Mr. Misrani.

Thank you, Operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining. I know we went long, but it was such a great discussion. Brooke thought we should keep on extending since we have so much interest. But thank you. It was a great, great call and terrific questions as well. And hopefully we'll see all of you on June the 8th here in Toronto. Really looking forward to it. And I would end by thanking my TD colleagues around the world. They are the ones who keep on delivering for all our stakeholders, including our shareholders. So thank you to all of you, and see you on the 8th.

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