Telefonica SA

Good morning and welcome to Telefonica's conference call to discuss January to December 2025 results. I'm Torsten Nachtmann from Investor Relations. Before proceeding, let me mention that the financial information contained in this document has been prepared under international financial reporting standards as adopted by the European Union. This financial information is unaudited. This conference call and webcast, including the Q&A session, may contain forward-looking statements and information relating to the Telefonica Group. These statements may include financial or operating forecasts and estimates or statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations regarding different matters. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause the final developments and results to materially differ from those expressed or implied by such statements. we encourage you to review our publicly available disclosure documents filed with the relevant securities market regulators. If you don't have a copy of the relevant press release and the slides, please contact Telefonica's investor relations team. Now let me turn the call over to our chairman and CEO, Mr. Mark Murtra.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Telefonica's fourth quarter and full year results call. I am here today with Emilio Gallo, Chief Operating Officer, Juan Azcue, Chief Financial and Corporate Development Officer, and Lutz Schuller, CEO of Virgin Media 02. Last November, at our Capital Markets Day, we presented our strategic plan, Transform and Grow, that had the clear challenge to provide citizens the best access to digital technologies. The fundamental access on a high level are clear for us. We are committed to offering additional and enhanced customer services to drive growth in our core markets. We are building a more innovative and competitive company, simplifying business units and shifting operational responsibility to markets with an ambitious and effective management focused on growth and efficiency. absolute commitment to guidance and financial discipline, and we are building a stronger, more competitive European operator. These axes and purpose fit our 2025 results, where we delivered on our commitments and where we achieved important milestones. Let me highlight the 2025 results, where we have delivered on our financial commitments in 2025. At the same time, we made significant progress setting the business up for a stronger future. Importantly, we exited the year with improving momentum. In the quarter, momentum continued with adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow after leases accelerated. Adjusted EBITDA constant forex growth reached 2.8% and adjusted operating cash flow after leases grew nearly 13%. B2B was particularly highlight, growing 7.3% in the quarter. Our business performance was equally encouraging. In Spain, we delivered the strongest growth in more than seven years on the back of our premium positioning and improved commercial performance. In Brazil, our customer base grew to record levels. And in Germany, consumer perception of the O2 brand continued It's a positive trend. Beyond the financial results, we continued to both simplify and drive long-term value creation for the Telefonica Group. We accelerated the pace of our portfolio transformation, significantly reducing our exposure in Spain, and have now more or less exited the region with six out of eight markets sold. We also reached a formal agreement with our labor unions to improve productivity in Spain. And this agreement is currently being implemented. This is an important step to build a leaner and faster moving organization. These are part of a broader efficiency drive that is already flowing through our cost base. Taken together, these achievements represent a solid foundation for 2026 execution. Moving to slide three. At the Capital Markets Day, we define the six strategic pillars underpinning our transform and grow strategy. During the end of 2025, we have already executed on these pillars. The first three are delivering a best-in-class customer experience, expanding B2C offering and scaling B2B. Let me highlight some of our achievements here that we are looking to build on in the future. In 2025, our network leadership drove commercial results. We want customers. retained them longer, and delivered services they value, as our NPS and customer lifetime value reflected. We also secured our leading position with, for example, the renewal of La Liga and the UEFA rights in Spain. In Brazil, VivoTotal represents 43% of FTHH customers, and we believe that we will grow that as we expand the customer proposition. We are building out the ecosystem into smart home, security, fintech, and consumer electronics. In Germany, fixed broadband expansion is the path to converge our strong mobile voice. The fourth pillar, evolving technological capabilities. We continue to invest in the best network experience for our customers. Beyond building networks, we are changing how we operate them with advanced automation, for example. The fifth pillar is simplifying our operating model. The goal is making a leaner, more agile Telefónica, ensuring our investments deliver improved returns. Copper switch-off in Spain was a milestone this year and has already started in Brazil. The workforce transformation agreement is concluded and on track to deliver approximately 0.6 billion euros in run rate savings by 2028. we made clear progress on portfolio management execution, completing four SPAM exits in 2025. Let me now turn to the priorities for 2026 in a transform and grow plan that will drive the next phase of growth. Delivering best-in-class customer experience is one of the clearest ways to drive long-term value. When interactions are simpler, and more tailored satisfaction increases, leading to greater loyalty, higher ARPU, lower churn, and higher customer lifetime value. At a group level, we are focused on ensuring faster incident resolution, and we are also rolling out AI-based hyper-personalization across key channels. This effect is included in the 2026 CAPEX of the group. In B2C, We are further driving convergence and deepening customer relationship by bringing more into each household. Customers who bundle multiple service, such as connectivity, content, devices, and other services, stay longer, spend more, and churn less. This creates a structural opportunity to grow ARPU efficiently. In B2B, we are scaling our digital services portfolio across the group, with a particular focus on cybersecurity and cloud as well as defense in Spain. Our trusted position with enterprise and public sector clients gives us a strong foundation to grow recurring revenues. 2026 is already a significant year for cost efficiencies. We are accelerating the simplification, optimizing leases, renegotiating vendor contracts, and streamlining structures. In Brazil, we are now shutting down our copper network to concentrate our resources on a single modern infrastructure. We continue to focus on ISPAM exit, already have closed two transactions in the year to date. Last week, NextFiber announced the acquisition of Netomnia to become the largest full-fiber altnet in the UK and will reach 8 million premises passed. We achieved this without a significant equity contribution from Telefonica. These initiatives show how transform and grow comes to life. We enter 2026 with a focused portfolio, stronger commercial momentum in core markets, and a clear set of priorities already in execution. Moving to guidance for 2026. We expect constant revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth of 1.5% to 2.5%, and capex to sales ratio of around 12%. We expected an adjusted operating cash flow after leases growth of more than 2%, demonstrating operating leverage at the adjusted operating cash flow after leases level. We expect free cash flow of 3 billion euros, an upgrade to the upper end of the range given at the capital market state, supported by the Q4 momentum. We continue to expect leverage to progress towards our target of 2.5% times net debt divided by adjusted EBITDA in 2028, to which we are fully committed to. We reconfirm our 15 euro cents dividend per share in 2026. We also reconfirm all of our three and five-year targets outlined at the capital market stage. Now, let me hand over to Emilio to take you through our operation performance in more detail.

Thank you, Mark. onto slide six to review our domestic business. 2025 was a landmark year for Telefónica Spain, delivering growth and record-breaking achievements. We recorded excellent commercial performance, reporting in 2025 the best KPIs since 2018. This is the result of a strict daily execution to deliver excellent service, leveraging our superior network and quality. a strong ecosystem and digital services, and a smart segmentation, all driving high customer satisfaction with the best MPS being a competitive advantage. I am proud to highlight the record fiber and TV net ads and a robust portability ratios. We achieved the highest customer base ever in contract mobile and fixed broadband. Convergent ARPU remains at leading levels, around 90 euros, and churn reached 0.7% in Q4, the lowest level since we launched our convergent proposition. The key drivers of churn reduction is the improved customer experience. Our focus on operational excellence and improvement in key processes allowed us to reduce call volumes by 10% and claims by 50% in just three years. In B2C, our digital ecosystem and premium content are key levers to increase loyalty and customer lifetime value. Customers with alarms exceeded 600,000. Customers with football grew year on year, and three out of four customers have a device. All these customers have a significant lower chance while driving revenues up. In B2B, we also have strong momentum. We are the best positioned player in the IT business, which is a growth engine. Launch such as Titan Connect assures continuous connectivity for businesses and drives new digital services that will foster further growth. From a financial standpoint, Spain is delivering profitable growth and solid cash generation, with all key financial metrics growing at the same time for the first time since 2008. Revenue has grown steadily, supported by both residential and B2B, with IT maintaining double-digit growth. Adjusted EBITDA continues to grow year on year, with margins around 57%, reflecting operating leverage and cost discipline. New personal efficiency initiatives, signed at the end of 2025, will deliver more than 250 million euros in savings by 2026. Finally, our CAPES intensity supports sustainable adjusted EBITDA and cash flow growth, with fiber and 5G networks already deployed. To sum up, 2025 has been a remarkable year for our business in Spain, delivering strong performance and better positioning us to capture growth ahead. In 2026, we aim to accelerate year-on-year growth rates across key financial metrics, leveraging further commercial momentum and execution of our efficiency agenda. Onto the next slide. Telefónica Brasil consolidated its position as the leading digital platform in the market, delivering a strong commercial and financial performance in 2025. Our operating strategy proved successful in vivo, reached an all-time high in the access space. At the same time, our focus on upselling data new B2C digital services, and convergence enhance the lifetime value of our accesses. In mobile, differentiated network quality and customer experience drive growth in the contract segment, with positive portability versus old operators. APU continues to grow while chance remains at very low levels. In fixed, fiber connection increased, double-digging, mainly driven by our flaccid conversion offer and churn reduction. Vivo Total saw an impressive increase year-on-year and already accounts for 53% of fiber connections, setting a new standard for quality and customer retention. On financial, let me highlight the solid growth above inflation in key metrics. Revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and operating cash generation increased year-on-year in real terms. with growth rates accelerating across all metrics, showing Vivos operating leverage. Revenue increased over 7%, thanks to the robust acceleration in mobile service revenue in the fourth quarter and the strong growth in new businesses. In B2C, revenue from the ecosystem, including health and wellness, consumer electronics, financial services, and entertainment, rose more than 20%, The penetration of these services provides a significant upside. In parallel, the B2B segment marked its strongest revenue growth in last years. This performance reflects the growing demand for digital solutions, which already represent close to 40% of B2B revenues. Adjusted EBITDA grew 8% in the quarter, while adjusted operating cash flow after leases, rose almost 20% thanks to the sound revenue growth and solid operating cost structure. In summary, once again, Vivo delivered a set of strong results, showing real growth across main financial KPIs, boosted by quality commercial growth and the focus on customer experience. Our ambition for 2026 is to continue growing revenue and adjusted EBITDA above inflation, supported by mobile, fiber, B2B digital services, and new B2C businesses, as well as by the benefit unlocked by the migration from concession to authorization. Moving to slide eight to discuss Germany. Our core business momentum continued in the fourth quarter in a market where we have recently seen signals pointing towards a reduction in promotional activity. The O2 brand was a key driver of mobile contract trading, benefiting from our key strength, network quality. Network rollout and densification continued at a high pace, bringing 5G population coverage to 99%. We achieved the target of quasi-nationwide coverage according to plan. The Connect magazine rated O2 network quality as very good, and we made a quantum leap forward to achieve second place for the first time. In the five biggest German cities, Connect even rated the network as outstanding. Contranetats were robust in the quarter, while Chan remained at a low level of 1.1%. Notably, IoT accesses growth accelerated in the fourth quarter. Fixed broadband, re-influenced, is returning to slight growth for the second quarter in a row, while RPU continues to increase. B2B segment offers huge growth opportunities, with certain initiatives already pegging off and supporting underlying revenue growth in 2025. Regarding financial results, revenue and adjusted EBITDA declined, mainly reflecting the completion of one-on-one customer migration by year-end, and that comes with Q4-24. We continue to deliver on our efficiency plan and strict cost control, but the contribution is not linear. To highlight, in 2025, the underlying financial performance was positive year on year. With an EC already in place, we continue working on identifying and executing further transformational growth and efficiency initiatives in Germany. Our high-quality network and a solid broad positioning laid the foundation for a return to growth in 2027. after leaving behind one-on-one impacts alone this year. Moving to slide nine, Virgin Media 2 ended 2025 delivering guidance with a strong progress in the fiber network and 5G deployment. We improved fixed line trading for the second consecutive quarter, reflecting progress in commercial initiatives such as Netflix and an improved retention strategy despite strong market headwinds. Mobile contract IPO grew 1.2% year-on-year, while net ads were affected mainly due to the October price rise announcement, elevating churn in the now-closed 30-day exit window. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA trends continue to be impacted by lower transit sales, net fiber construction, and the intense competition, which mainly impacted the consumer fixed revenues. However, 2025 guided revenue increased 0.2% year-on-year and guided EBITDA increased 0.9%. Summary, Vision Media 2 is scaling its infrastructure while streamlining operations to pave the way for long-term profitable growth. The revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations for 2026 reflect increased promotional intensity and ongoing uncertainty in the consumer fixed market, alongside planned simplification for the B2B product portfolio. Continued cost efficiency will support profitability, but will be partially offset by a higher number of customers on NextFiber footprint with associated wholesale fees. Finally, NextFiber announced last week the agreement for the acquisition of Netonia. This acquisition will strengthen our network, accelerating fiber rollout and penetration, with a clear value creation through BNO2 and X-Fiber. On to slide 10, review our global units. First, in 2025, Telefónica Tech confirmed its position as the engine for our B2B growth in digital services. Revenue growth rate accelerated quarter on quarter, boosted by Spain, where we recorded a strong growth in IoT beacon sales. In 2025, revenue increased close to 20%. This performance is driven by the strong demand in Europe where we see huge opportunity to grow. We continue to scale our capabilities to capture the digitalization opportunity while making progress on the operating model simplification. Additionally, we have solved the operation in HESPA. Regarding Telefonica Infra, Let me highlight that our fiber cost represented 24% of group deployment in 2025. Also, our subsea cable business delivered sustained profitability in 2025, with an EBITDA margin of over 45%. Now, let me hand it over to Juan, who will present the main financial topics and ESG.

Thank you, Emilio. It's a pleasure to be speaking with you for the first time as Chief Financial and Corporate Development Officer. Let me take you through the financial details for the quarter and the full year. Starting with the full year, revenue reached 35.1 billion euros, growing 1.5% year-on-year in constant terms. Adjusted EBITDA came in at 11.9 billion euros, up 2%, and adjusted operating cash flow after leases grew 5.9% to just over 5 billion euros. CapEx to Sale came in at 12.4% within our target. We reported free cash flow of €2.8 billion, above our base for guidance of approximately €2.7 billion. The free cash flow, including employee restructuring commitments and Vimeo 2 dividends, reached €2.1 billion, exceeding our updated guidance for 2025. Net financial debt decreased 1.2% year-on-year to €26.8 billion, held by our exit CINISPAN. Q4 trends reflected the underlying momentum in the business. Revenue grew 1.3% in constant terms, adjusted the BDA 2.8%, and adjusted operating cash flow after leases nearly 13%. Free cash flow accelerated to 1.4 billion euros in Q4, with net debt down by the same amount. Foreign exchange was a meaningful headwind through 2025. A drag of around three percentage points in revenue adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted operating cash flow after leases. That impact lessened in Q4. A quick note on perimeter. After ISPAM disposals, Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, Uruguay, Colombia, and other small companies are classified as discontinued operations. Alongside the sentiment reclassification of ISPAM with Chile, Venezuela, and Mexico now reported under other companies. These are the portfolio decisions Mark referred earlier. They affect comparability, but they create a stronger, more focused business going forward. Looking at the revenue mix, B2B grew 7.1% in constant terms for the full year and 7.3% in Q4. B2C revenue increased to 2.1% in Q4, up 1.8% for the full year. To summarize, we deliver on our 2025 guidance. The business exited the year with improving trends, and the underlying quality of earnings is threatened as well as we hit into 2026. Onto the next slide. I'm turning to free cash flow. As usual, the majority of cash generation was concentrated in Q4, consistent with our typical seasonal ability. In 2025, we generated free cash flow of 2.8 billion euros, exceeding our initial free cash flow base for guidance of 2.7 billion euros. For 2026, we are upgrading our guidance to approximately 3 billion euros, the upper end of the range given at the capital market day. The path to get there is underpinned by a positive operating performance and efficient cost management of all lines below. In the next slide, our net debt to EBITDA ratio fell to 2.78 times in December from 287 times in September. Net financial debt at year-end declined to 26 billion euros. including the sale of Colombia, Chile, and the Fibber Pass stake, net debt fell to 24.6 billion euro. Telefonica is well on track to achieve our leverage target of around 2.5 times by 2028. At the end of December, we had liquidity of 17.4 billion euro, which is a significant higher than our upcoming debt maturities. The average cost of debt has been reduced by 0.3%. 0.21 percentage points year-on-year to 2.98% in December. We continued with our proactive refinancing approach during the first months of the year. We already successfully issued a green hybrid bond of 1.8 euro to refinance hybrids with reset dates in December 26 and November 28 at very attractive conditions. Therefore, we have ample flexibility to refinance the next hybrid with the first reset date in May 27. On top of that, Telefonica issued a 170 million Swiss franc bond and a 1 billion Euro green bond, demonstrated strong market access and ESG financing leadership. We will continue with our present financial policy and free cash flow management, which are key priorities for us. On to the next slide. Let me spend a few moments highlighting Telefonica financial priorities. Growing our free cash flow in a predictable manner is central to everything we do. Strong and growing free cash flow give us the optionality to invest in our business, return cash to shareholders, and do value a creative M&A if it makes sense. We will deploy that cash flow to grow Telefónica sustainably with a clear guardrail to maintain our investment grade rating and continue on our leveraging path towards a 2.5 ratio by 2028. Our dividend policy is sustainable and aligned to free cash flow generation. As our cash flow grows, so does our capacity to reward shareholders. On M&A, our framework is clear. We will be opportunistic and disciplined. Any transaction must deliver clear, compelling, and measurable synergies, create value for our shareholders, be within our leveraged target ambitions, and compatible with our commitments to our investment grade rating. We will not compromise our balance sheet to just add revenues. We have no interest in transactions that dilute the quality of the business we're building. Every opportunity will be judged on its merits, and if it doesn't meet our criteria, we won't pursue it. More broadly, our focus is on building improved financial flexibility. The combination of the risk and growing free cash flow, a clear deleveraging trajectory, and a disciplined capital allocation is what positions Telefonica to create sustainable value for our shareholders. Turning to our sustainability initiatives. On the environmental front, we continue to cut emissions, making the business more efficient while ensuring stable energy costs. On the social side, we highlight the expansion of our rural mobile broadband coverage, which allows us to provide more communities with secure digital services. Moving to governance, we are actively strengthening our supply chain resilience, including over 17,000 sustainability-related audits in 2025. Lastly, we are proud to report leadership position across several prestigious international rankings. I will now hand back to Mark, who will wrap up.

Thank you, Juan. Let me close with where we stand and where we are heading. Telefonica delivered on all its 2025 commitments with accelerating momentum in Q4. Across our four markets, Spain, Brazil, Germany, and the UK, we made strong operating progress with each market advancing on its strategic priorities. We continued to simplify the business. Our efficiency initiatives are ramping and the workforce restructuring is on track. Telefonica is a leaner and more focused company than it was a year ago. Looking ahead, our 2026 guidance reflects continued momentum with growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA accelerating in adjusted operating cash flow after leases and free cash flow upgrading to approximately €3.0 billion, supporting both our dividend and our deleveraging path. During 2026, we already executed the sale of Chile and Colombia and the Netonia acquisition. We are executing on transform and grow with a clear framework, driving growth with consolidation as an upside. We have a strong foundation and the best plan to become a world-class European telco with profitable scale. I'm confident in our strategy that will drive shareholder value creation. Thank you for your time. We are now happy to take your questions.

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by 1 1 on your telephone keypad. Once again, that is star 1 1 to register a question. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To answer your question, please press star 1 1 again. We will kindly ask you to ask a maximum of two questions per participant. There will be a short silence where questions are being registered. Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Lee from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

yeah good morning everyone i had a couple of questions on operational organic issues um firstly on spanish growth and then secondly on free cash flow generation outside the three billion um you're guiding for for 2026. um just on spain obviously you're you're growing um and it's improved versus a year ago but the growth seems stuck on one percent service revenue and one percent ebitda growth um over the past few quarters You talked quite clearly about an acceleration and expectation of an acceleration in growth in 2026 today. Do you think the EBITDA growth is accelerating or will accelerate without the 250 million of restructuring efficiencies? If so, why is the underlying EBITDA growth accelerating? And if not, why not? The second question is on free cash flow generation. your previous guidance that employee contributions in 2026 would be higher than the 1 billion originally planned in 2025. Do you still expect employee contributions to be higher than 1 billion in 2026? And also we know that UK dividends will be lower this year. Are there any other below the line free cash flow movements we should be aware of below the line? By that I mean below the 3 billion that you're guiding for 2026. Are there any other believable agreements we should be aware of that you are anticipating? Thanks very much.

Thanks, Andrew. Emilio will answer the first question and Juan your second question.

Okay. Andrew, thank you for the question. All the saving measures that we are taking in Spain is part of our guidance for 26. we are seeing acceleration in all the financial key metrics, both in revenues, EBITDA, and operating capital after leases. But it's true that the restructural saving coming from the agreements is part of this equation. The reason that not all the savings of the restructural savings goes to the EBITDA is because there are other parts, for example, wholesale revenues that are declining. As you know, in 2024, we signed several agreements that led us to have a very sustainable business for the next coming year in wholesale, but at the same time, in the first years of the agreement, means a declining of revenues. And other costs that increase, for example, is the personal cost that is not included in the restructural agreement. Of course, we are facing a change in the revenue mix that brings business revenues with less margin. And because of that, we are looking for saving in all the companies that is possible. Technology and the evolution of the company permit us to find saving in a lot of activities. For example, I had to highlight the saving that we expect for the procurement and purchase processes. that we are working now in a group level, but of course in Spain too.

Thank you, Andrea. We'll take your second question on Free Cash Flow 26 generation and commitments. So, as we pointed out, we upgraded our 26 free cash flow to approximately 3 billion euros at the upper range given at the CMD. This is underpinned by a positive operational performance and the efficient management of all lines below. The operational performance, we are seeing it already in Q4, and that's the reason why we're guiding to over 2% constant growth in 26 for adjusted operating cash flow alt. on the patch below, we do see at the risk free cash flow with free cash flow profile that has changed meaningfully and is more predictable and less volatile. Below operating cash flow, there are different lines that compensate ones with another. But overall, my answer will be that the reason for us to increase and be more positive on the 3 billion is related to operational performance. Now, your second question was on commitments. We are We guided to 1 billion commitments in 2025. 2026 will be a year of transition. Although the amounts are not fully finalized because there might be changes between which part goes as one-off pay and severance and how much is deferred, you should think about a figure around 1.2 billion as the peak. That would be the peak of the commitments and then they will go downwards and fade away over time. You had a You mentioned the dividend and the impact on the dividend on 26. But as you know, the dividend on 26, it's a fixed amount of 15 euro cents that will be paid in June 27. So this increase in peak commitment should not affect it.

Okay, thank you. Just two clarifications. So you're still expecting the positives and negatives below the 3 billion, i.e. employee commitments and UK dividends, et cetera, to balance out, right? And then just on Spain, thanks for your help on that. Am I right in saying that your expectation is that the EBITDA growth X, the $250 million saving, won't be accelerating given the headwinds you measured, including wholesale declines and the low margin growth or weaker revenue growth mix at the moment?

Okay, I will take the first part of the question.

So yes, the guide I gave you on commitments, on peak commitments of 26, 1.2 billion on UK dividend, you should compute what was guided by DMAO2, which was Africa's flow distribution for its shareholders of around 200 million pounds. If I recall correctly, that was the guidance.

In the case of Spain, Andrew, again, we are expecting to accelerate EBITDA It's a mix of different measures, both in revenues and in cost savings. Okay, thank you.

Thank you. We will now take the next question. From the line of Keval Kiroya from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Thank you for the questions. I have two, please. Firstly, your off-free cash flow margin in Germany is less than 10%. and approximately half the level of Spain. How do you expect the German free cash flow margin to evolve? And I appreciate you've talked about return to growth, but can you detail a little bit more on what's key to get there across the revenue OPEX and CAPEX levers? And then secondly, you've been quite vocal on the desire for consolidation across your core markets. What do you think are the main barriers to striking deals? And do you think we now have enough regulatory clarity for you to actually present deals to the regulators should they arise? Thank you.

Okay, thanks for your question. I'll start with your second question. So with regards to consolidation, the main barriers that have existed to date is the mergers and acquisitions guideline managed by the European Commission. I think we can hear good Good messages in this line, and I'm happy to discuss them further, and some mixed messages, but what will matter is exactly how the specifics advance, and we are still not there. So I would say that is the main limitation that we've had as a European market. And then there is, of course, the usual difficulties of reaching large and complex agreements that have to do with getting the right price and getting the right synergies.

Keval, regarding the Germany question, as I mentioned during the presentation, our expectation is to grow in 2027. During this year, we expect to improve around the year, while we are leaving behind the comps with the revenues that we leave. Keval, I don't know if you can hear the last answer about the margin in Spain. Just to say that we are expecting the operating cash flow, at least its margin, improve more than improved due to this operating cash flow after leases grow. will be above revenues and EBITDA growth.

That's very clear.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. We will now take the next question. From the line of Joshua Mead from Vienna.

Hi guys, hopefully you can hear me. So my first question was on the difference between the EBITDA and EBITDAO growth numbers. If I look at Spain, you actually saw a slowdown in EBITDA growth this year, and this is the metric most of us are focused on. So you went from having plus 0.9 to plus 0.4% in the quarter. And I understand your commentary on the acceleration in reported EBITDA pre-leases, but how should we think about Spanish EBITDA after lease growth developing in 2026, and what should we assume for lease costs increasing? Maybe if I can add a second part to that. On the Germany EBITDA after lease development, you saw minus 22% declines in Q4. I understand you want to grow this in 2027, but it would be great to get a steer on how the 2026 number will shake out, whether that's down 10, down 20, down more than that. given that there's so many moving parts and limited visibility. And then finally, second-ish question, but on the free cash flow guidance, I see that you raised the starting point for 2025. So the starting point for the base has gone from $2.8 to $2.9 billion. If I take your 3% to 5% midterm free cash flow CAGR, that would imply some upside to midterm free cash flow. Are you implicitly raising the midterm free cash flow guidance as well today, or is it still within the range you initially expected?

Thank you. Lease growth was driven mainly by 5G rollout and fiber expansion in core markets and inflation impact. The lease figure was higher in 25 by 2% due to sessionability mostly in the fourth quarter. As the outlook for the guidance, you should expect leases to continue a moderate at-worth trend, mainly driven by 5G deployment in those core markets. CPI updates apply to both new and renewed contracts for mobile sites, rollout for 5G, as well as new sites required for such expansion. We remain very focused on driving efficiencies in all lines as a top priority, and leases will be one of our focus for sure. On your second question, regarding the free cash flow base, yes, we reported 2.8 billion of free cash flow base versus the 2.7 reference we had in the capital market day. Plus, once they consolidated Chile, that figure, that base goes to 2.9. On your question on whether we're implicitly increasing guidance, we are increasing guidance for 2026 explicitly, 3 billion. And then on the long term, we feel it's still too short a time since the capital market day to change the range, so we keep the 3 to 5% range. But obviously, mathematically, we increase the base. we are implicitly giving a message, which is what we see, which is we expect 2028 free cash flow to be higher than the initial guidance given at the CMD. So that will be the message. We keep the 3.5, and then we'll see where we see us within that range, but definitely we do see a higher 2028 free cash flow.

Great. Maybe just to simplify the first question a bit, do you expect to grow Spanish EBITDA after lease in 2026?

Yes, we are expecting growth acceleration both in EBITDA and EBITDA after leases. In Spain, we are expecting leases very stable.

Great, thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. We will now take the next question. From the line of Nick from Berenberg, please go ahead.

Hi, guys. Morning. I hope you can hear me. First question was on German mobile ARPU, please. It looks like the contract telephonic ARPU, so X, the one-on-one subs, is down quite sharply. So down about 14% year-on-year, but maybe it's flattened out sequentially. Could you give us a bit of an idea of what the outlook is for 26, please? Just, I mean, given your comments, particularly about the promotional activity being quite heavy in Germany. And then secondly, can I just come back to Kevil's question on the merger guidelines? I think on the merger guidelines, you said we're the biggest barrier to consolidation. Could you just clarify for us exactly what that means in terms of timing? Does that mean you have to wait for a resolution to Teresa Ribeiro's merger guidelines in that 2027 investigation first? Or are you prepared to do something before the merger guidelines are clarified, please? Thanks very much.

Thank you, Nick. As we have explained, the German market has largely embraced family offers, and it has an impact in the ARPU. We expect that the market to stay promotional, but more rational. Family plans naturally result in a higher share of second and third-seeing cars. In the past, we usually lowered ARPUs. But at the same time, we are expecting to have a similar RPO moving in line with market levels of established MNOE.

Regarding the merger guidelines, unfortunately, my answer has to be ambiguous. We understand that within the current framework of merger guidelines, large operations can happen if the interpretation applied wishes that to happen. We understand that in the review that will be made public shortly, we can either hear of a review of the guidelines or we can either read of a new interpretation or a modernization of the interpretation of the merger and acquisition guidelines. From our point of view, we're going to work on a case-by-case basis and have nothing else to add at this stage.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Thank you very much.

Thank you.

We will now take the next question from the line of James Ratzer from New Street Research. Please go ahead.

Yes, thank you very much indeed and good morning. I've had two questions. The first one was just regarding the UK and Virgin Media 02, where I see you've taken a write-down of on the asset, but the new valuation you're putting on VM02 still looks as if it's around nine and a half times EBITDA. So I was wondering if you could just run through what forecasts you are using for that impairment review, please, to justify that value, and does that include the impact of the new Netomnia transaction? And secondly, there was a press article a month or so ago where Mr. Dommermuth in Germany suggested that he might be interested in potentially acquiring Telefonica Deutschland. So could you see a scenario where you might actually be a seller in that market? Thank you.

James, I will take your first question on the impairment. So the MNO2 impairment, we carry a book value that we have to every year with a good will included that every year through our audit process we have to do a test to see if there's an impairment. The impairment that we have registered, this 25, has to do with more negative view or projections at the end of the year based on the changes in the open reach Equinox studies that took place in fall. So that took the team to do a sensitivity around their business plan, so it's a sensitivity, and that sensitivity was the one that KPMG took as a base for their evaluation. To your question, does that include the Netomya deal? No, sadly no, because that valuation is done as of 31st of December. We do believe that the Netomya transaction will enhance the financial and operational performance of the asset, and therefore that's not included in the impairment test, and we think that the outcome of it might have been different if that had been the case. So that's for the VIMRO too.

Regarding your Germany question, Jameson, by the way, good morning to you and everybody. And we can hear you all loud and clear. As you know, we have defined four core markets that include Germany, the UK, Brazil, and Spain. And whilst we're always a rational operator and we manage our assets very rationally, we also take all media comments as such, as media comments. So what we can say is that we are committed to Germany. We are committed to the German market in the short term, in the medium term, and in the long term as an industrial operator. And up and above this, we don't really have any other comments. Thanks.

Thank you very much.

Thank you very much. Operator, we have time for one last question, please.

Thank you. Thank you.

One moment, please. Our last question comes from the line of Emmet Kelly from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning everybody and thank you for taking the questions. I have two questions, please. Firstly, Mark, can we just come back to some of the comments you made earlier on consolidation and antitrust? You said that you had received some good messages and also some mixed messages. Can you just say a few words more about those comments, please? And secondly, just in your home market in Spain, can you talk a little bit about the competition you're seeing in Spain, in particular what you're seeing from Vodafone Zagona and from Digi at the bottom end of the market, and whether your premium positioning is keeping you reasonably sheltered from, we'd say, the competitive intensity at the bottom end. Thank you.

Good morning, Enes. Thanks for your question. I'll answer the first one. So I'm only referring to public messages. I always keep any communication with private communications private. But we have heard Antonio Costa defending a European telecoms consolidation that would allow more scale and more capacity to invest profitably. And then we've read public messages with regards to mergers and acquisitions that follow a fine line of ambiguity that we think or we understand is deliberate. That is what I was referring to. With regards to Antonio Costa, if you haven't seen the message, we'd be happy to forward it to you. I think it was something like 10 or 15 days ago. With regards to competition, I'll hand over to Emilio. Thanks.

Regarding the competition in Spain, first of all, to remind that in Spain we see clearly two segments of clients. First of all, the high-end clients where we have a very strong position based on our superior proposal. or consistent general ecosystem and network and brand and commercial approach permit to be very optimistic in the solution in this segment, even taking into account the effort of our competitors to gain market share. The fact is that we are winning market share and we are maintaining the lowest churn in this segment. In the low-end segment, We have to say that we are competing very well. That's true. That is a more competitive segment where Vodafone and Digi clearly are trying to push the fat. If you see the portability numbers, it's that Telefónica Spain clearly maintains a very good performance comparing with this competitor. Again, we think that our superior network, we think our superior proposal in terms of ecosystem, even in the low end, And the approach that we have in terms of customer service, that at the end is the most sustainable competitive advantage, permit that to be, again, a positive in the trends with our competitors. The efforts of these two competitors in the low end, at least we don't see that it affects too much to Telefónica Spain.

Thank you. At this time, no further questions will be taken.

Okay.

Well, thank you, everybody, for your quality time. You heard what our analysis of the data is and what our commitments are in a qualitative and quantitative way for 2026. and moving forward. You have channels of communication with us that are ongoing and open, so if there's any questions that remain to be answered, we'll be delighted to address them and share with you our analysis. Have a great day, everybody. Thanks.