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2/22/2024
Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. My name is Abby and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the triple flag fourth quarter and full year 2023 results conference call. Today's conference is being recorded and all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during that time, simply press the star key followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star 1 a second time. Thank you. And I will now turn the conference over to Sean Uffmar, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Uffmar, you may begin.
Sean Uffmar, Chief Executive Officer Sean Uffmar, Chief Executive Officer Sean Uffmar, Chief Executive Officer Sean Uffmar, Chief Executive Officer Sean Uffmar, Chief Executive Officer and full year 2023 results. Today I'm joined by our CFO, Sheldon Vanderkooy, and our Senior Vice President of Corporate Development, James Dendle. Turning to slide four, our business continued its strong performance during the fourth quarter with sales of roughly 26,000 gold equivalent ounces resulting in 38 million US dollars over operating cash flow during the quarter. On a full year basis, Our portfolio generated sales of just over 105,000 gold equivalent ounces, delivering within our guidance range and creating a new record for Triple Flag. The strong performance resulted in $154 million in operating cash flow and $159 million in adjusted EBITDA for 2023, both new records for the company. Evolution Mining acquired an 80% interest in the North Park's copper gold mine in Australia, in which Triple Flag retains a 54% gold stream and 80% silver stream. Evolution has a long history of operating in Australia and is poised to continue developing and operating North Parks in the exceptional manner that CMOC had previously. North Parks is a world-class asset, having a multi-decade mine life and great exploration potential. and we expect the high-grade E31 deposit to drive a significant increase in 2024 estimated stream deliveries for the asset. Additionally, several of our over 200 development and exploration stage assets continue to advance, highlighted by exploration success at Hove Bay and updated economic studies at Kone and Eskay Creek. Finally, looking forward to 2024, We're establishing a guidance range of between 105 and 115,000 gold equivalent ounces, while reaffirming our five-year outlook averaging over 140,000 gold equivalent ounces. This builds on Triple Flag's track record of sector-leading growth in gold equivalent ounces over the past seven years, where we've delivered a cumulative annual growth rate of more than 20% since 2017, and continuing with short- and medium-term growth We had a strong fourth quarter with the portfolio producing over 26,000 gold-equivalent ounces.
which resulted in us achieving our full year 2023 guidance with a final total of over 105,000 GCL. This resulted in records for both revenues and operating cash flow during 2023 supporting our investment thesis for the Mavericks transaction more than a year ago. Operating cash flow per share is a very key metric for me and I'm pleased to say that we increased slightly for the year from $0.76 per share to $0.77 per share. This reflects a creative growth for the year. It was a solid quarter and a solid year. Our dividend has been maintained at 21 cents US on an annualized basis, which resulted in Triple Flag paying out over $40 million in dividends to shareholders in 2023. We have increased our dividend every year since our IPO, and as the year progresses, we'll consider the potential to continue that track record. In addition to our dividend, we also returned over $28 million to shareholders via share buybacks. As of December 31, 2023, We have 9.9 million shares of remaining capacity under the current NCIB. I'd also like to comment on our strong balance sheet. We exited 2023 with just over $40 million in net debt. In Q4, we had operating cash flow of $37 million, so our net debt represents just over one quarter's cash flow. This positions us very well, allowing us to make capital allocation decisions to benefit shareholders through new acquisitions, share buybacks, or dividends. I'll turn now to slide 6. Our portfolio has shown consistent growth since our inception. 2023 was a record for operating cash flow, free cash flow, and adjusted EBITDA, each increasing significantly from 2022 due to the acquisition of Mavericks Metals as well as other royalties acquired during the year, such as Stahl and AgVal. Consistent margins result in efficient translation of revenue into cash flow available to shareholders. Our portfolio has significant embedded production growth. As production grows and further aided by a beneficial gold price environment, we expect our free cash flow to grow due to both the price and the volume impact. Moving to slide seven, we have highlighted here three very important aspects of our portfolio, namely asset diversification, precious metals focus, and a portfolio which is predominantly centered in the Americas and Australia. Our revenue is well diversified across our portfolio. Sarah Lindo and North Parks are our biggest contributors during the year, representing 22% and 14% of annual revenue, respectively. Sarah Lindo was our first investment. In 2016, we invested $250 million in a silver stream. I am very pleased that in Q4, we achieved a significant milestone of having recovered all of our initial investment in Sarah Lindo. Demonstrating the strength of the streaming model, Sarah Lindo has a current remaining mine life of over eight years. We're going to benefit from this stream for a great deal of time to come, and my expectation is that over time, mine life will continue to be extended as it has in the past. Moving on, the investment thesis for Triple Flag is for a strong, pure-play royalty and streaming company focused on precious metals. This has not changed since our inception in 2016. Gold and silver account for roughly 95% of our revenues, amongst the highest in the sector. Our portfolio is centered in mining-friendly jurisdictions. Jurisdiction matters. Our single greatest country concentration is in Australia. Our Australian producing assets include North Parks, Fosterville, and Beta Hunt, as well as a number of smaller contributors, including Stahl. I'd like to now turn to slide 8. Slide 8 sets out our production growth since we were founded in 2016. In 2017, we produced 33,000 gold equivalent ounces. by 2023 that had increased to 105,000 ounces, a three times increase and a compound annual growth rate of over 20%. Looking forward, we expect this growth to continue in 2024 with our 2024 guidance being between 105,000 and 115,000 gold equivalent ounces. We also expect this growth to continue for the next five years as we are expecting our gold equivalent ounces to average over 140,000 ounces from 2025 to 2029. Importantly, this is by organic growth from assets already within our portfolio and does not include any additional acquisitions that may occur. This production growth will efficiently translate into increased cash flow for shareholders. Turning now to slide nine, I'd like to provide some additional guidance on financial metrics. We've already stated our CEO Guidance of 105,000 to 115,000 Gold Equivalent Ounces. This is driven by our expectation of significant growth from North Parks due to the processing of higher gold grade open port material at E31 and the E31 North, which Sean will discuss further. Depletion is expected to be between $70 million and $80 million higher than the prior year given the growth in Gold Equivalent Ounce production, while our G&A will be between $23 and $24 million. Finally, our Australian cash tax rate for Australian royalties will be approximately 25%, consistent with the 24% rate that was realized in 2023. Over to you, Sean.
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