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Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the TJX Company's third quarter fiscal 2024 financial results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. At that time, if you have a question, you will need to press star 1. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded as of today, November 15, 2023. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ernie Herman, Chief Executive Officer and President of the TJX Companies Incorporated. Please go ahead, sir.
Ernie Herman
Thanks, Ivy. Before we begin, Deb has some opening comments.
spk09
Thank you, Ernie, and good morning. The forward-looking statements we made today about the company's results and plans are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results and the implementation of the company's plans to vary materially. These risks are discussed in the company's SEC filings, including, without limitation, the Form 10-K filed March 29, 2023. Further, these comments and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted today by the TJX Companies, Inc. Any recording, retransmission, reproduction, or other use of the same, for profit or otherwise, without prior consent of TJX is prohibited and a violation of United States copyright and other laws. Additionally, while we have approved the publishing of a transcript of this call by a third party, we take no responsibility for inaccuracies that may appear in that transcript. We have detailed the impact of foreign exchange on our consolidated results and our international divisions in today's press release and the investor section of our website, TJX.com. Reconciliations of other non-GAAP measures we discussed today to GAAP measures are also posted on our website, TJX.com, in the investor section. Thank you, and now I'll turn it back over to Ernie.
Ernie Herman
Good morning. Joining me and Deb on the call is John. I want to start by recognizing our global associates for their continued hard work and dedication to TJX. Again, I want to give special recognition to our store, distribution, and fulfillment center associates for their commitment to our company. Now, to our business update and third quarter results. I am extremely pleased with our third quarter performance as sales, profitability, and earnings per share all exceeded our expectations. Our 6% overall comp sales increase was entirely driven by customer traffic, which was up at all of our divisions. Marmax, our largest division, continued its strong momentum by once again delivering terrific increases in both comp sales and customer traffic. In the third quarter, our apparel sales remained very strong and sales for overall home were outstanding, accelerating sequentially versus the second quarter, particularly at home goods. We also saw comp sales and traffic increases at our Canadian and international divisions. Importantly, overall merchandise margin remains very healthy. Our excellent third quarter results are a testament to the strong execution of our teams across the company and their continued focus on growing both our top and bottom lines. With our above-plan results in the third quarter, we are raising our full-year outlook for comp sales and earnings per share. John will talk to this in a moment. The fourth quarter is off to a strong start. and we continue to see outstanding availability of merchandise across a wide range of brands in the marketplace. This gives us great confidence that we can keep flowing a fresh assortment to our stores and online throughout the holiday season and beyond. Longer term, I am convinced that the flexibility of our business model, our wide demographic reach, and our differentiated treasure hunt shopping experience will continue to serve us well and allow us to keep growing successfully in the United States and internationally. Okay, before I continue, I'll turn the call over to John to cover our third quarter financial results in more detail.
John
Thanks, Ernie, and good morning, everyone. I also want to add my gratitude to all of our global associates for their continued hard work. I'll start with some additional details on the third quarter. As Ernie mentioned, our overall comp store sales increased 6%, well above the high end of our plan, and were entirely driven by an increase in customer traffic. We saw continued momentum with our apparel comp sales, which includes accessories, with a mid-single-digit increase. Overall, home comp sales accelerated and were up high single digits. TGX net sales grew to $13.3 billion, a 9% increase versus the third quarter of fiscal 23. The third quarter consolidated pre-tax margin of 12% was up 80 basis points versus last year. Our pre-tax profit margin came in above our plan primarily due to expense leverage on our stronger than expected sales and a benefit of approximately 40 basis points from the timing of expenses. As we stated in our press release this morning, we expect this benefit from the timing of expenses will reverse out in the fourth quarter. Third quarter pre-tax profit margin was negatively impacted by approximately 30 basis points of cost from the closing of our home goods online business, which was not contemplated in our previous guidance. All the costs associated with the closing of our home goods e-commerce business are reflected in our Q3 results, and there are no further write downs expected going forward. Third quarter gross margin was up 200 basis points versus last year. This increase was driven by a higher merchandise margin due to the significant benefit from lower freight costs. Gross margin also benefited from expense leverage on the 6% comp sales increase. Supply chain investments in our year-over-year shrink accrual were headwinds to gross margin in the third quarter. Third quarter SG&A increased 140 basis points primarily due to incremental store wage and payroll costs, higher incentive accruals due to above plan results, and approximately 30 basis points of costs related to the closing of our home goods online business. Net interest income benefited pre-tax profit margin by 30 basis points versus last year. Lastly, we were very pleased that diluted earnings per share of $1.03 were also above our expectations and up 20% versus last year's adjusted 86 cents. This includes an approximately three-penny negative impact due to the closing of our home goods online business, which was not contemplated in our previous guidance. This also includes approximately three pennies of unplanned benefit from the timing of expenses that we expect will reverse out in the fourth quarter. Moving to our third quarter divisional performance. At Marmax, third quarter comp store sales increased a very strong 7%, entirely driven by customer traffic. Maramax's apparel and home categories both saw significant comp sales increases. Further, comp sales increases were very consistent across low-, mid-, and high-income demographic areas and were strong across all regions. Maramax's third quarter segment profit margin was 14%, up 50 basis points versus last year. This was driven by a benefit from lower freight costs as well as expense leverage on the strong sales, partially offset by incremental store wage and payroll costs and higher incentive accruals. We are convinced that TJ Maxx and Marshalls will continue to be gift-giving destinations this holiday season. Long-term, we remain confident in our ability to capture additional market share in the U.S. At-home goods. Third quarter comp store sales accelerated to an outstanding 9% increase, entirely driven by customer traffic. Comp performance was very strong across each region in the U.S. and across stores in different income demographic areas. We were very pleased to see HomeGoods' third quarter segment profit margin return to double digits, increasing 140 basis points to 10.3%. This increase was due to a benefit from lower freight costs, and expense leverage on stronger sales, partially offset by costs related to closing our home goods online business. With more than 900 stores today, we continue to see a significant opportunity to open up more home goods and home-send stores around the country. We're excited about our market share opportunities and bringing our eclectic home assortment and great values to even more shoppers. At TJX Canada, comp store sales growth was 3% and was also driven by an increase in customer traffic. Segment profit margin on a constant currency basis was 17%, up 120 basis points. We have a very loyal shopper base in Canada and are convinced that we can capture additional market share through all three of our Canadian banners. At TJX International, comp store sales were up 1% and customer traffic was up. Comp sales and traffic increased in both Europe and Australia. In Europe, we were pleased with our performance given the high inflation impacting customer discretionary spend in the unseasonably warm weather. Segment profit margin for TJX International on a constant currency basis was 5.3% down 140 basis points. We are confident that we can keep growing our footprint across our existing European countries and Australia and improve the overall profitability of this division. As to e-commerce, overall, it's a very small percentage of our business and remains complementary to our very successful brick and mortar business. As to HomeGoods.com online business, when we looked at our long-term projections, we did not see a path to profitability over the long term like we do for our other banners. In terms of our other e-commerce sites, we were very pleased with their sales trends in the third quarter. Moving to inventory, balance sheet inventory was essentially flat, versus the third quarter of fiscal 23. We feel great about our inventory levels and the outstanding availability in the marketplace. We are well positioned to flow fresh assortments to our stores and online this holiday season. I'll finish with our liquidity and shareholder distributions. For the third quarter, we generated $1.2 billion in operating cash flow and ended the quarter with $4.3 billion in cash. In the third quarter, we returned $1 billion to shareholders through our buyback and dividend programs. Now I'll turn it back to Ernie.
Ernie Herman
All right. Thanks, John. Now I'd like to highlight the key opportunities we see to keep driving sales and traffic in the fourth quarter. First, as always, offering outstanding value is our top priority for the holiday selling season, especially in an environment where consumers' wallets are stretched. The marketplace continues to be loaded with quality merchandise, and we are set up extremely well to offer a wide range of good, better, and best brands to consumers. Second, we believe we are strongly positioned to be a top destination for gifts this holiday season. Our buyers have done a terrific job selecting the best merchandise available from our global vendor base to surprise and excite our customers. We are confident that shoppers will find an eclectic assortment of gifts to choose from for everyone on their list. In addition, we will remain focused on being a gifting destination throughout the year. Next, we will be flowing fresh product to our stores and online multiple times a week throughout the holiday season, which we believe differentiates us from many other major retailers. With our ever-changing mix of merchandise, shoppers can see something new every time they visit. Further, we feel great about our plans to transition our stores post-holiday and offer consumers the categories and trends they want to start the year. Lastly, we feel great about our holiday marketing campaigns across all of our brands, which launched earlier this month. Each of our brands are emphasizing our value leadership and our great assortment of quality gifts for the whole family. We believe we are set up very well to be top of mind for consumers and drive shoppers to our stores this holiday season. Additionally, we feel great about our in-store shopping experience as our customer satisfaction scores remain very strong. Moving on, I'd like to spend a moment and list off the key characteristics of TJX that give us confidence that we can continue our successful growth around the world for many years to come. First, we're the largest brick and mortar off-price retailer in the world. We leverage our global infrastructure and share best practices across all of our divisions so that we can deliver the best merchandise, values, and shopping experience to our customers. Second, we have one of the most flexible business models in retail. This allows us to buy close to need and quickly adjust our store assortment to meet changing consumer preferences and offer the hottest trends. Third, We successfully operate stores across a very wide demographic, and we curate our store mix to appeal to shoppers across all income demographics. Importantly, we continue to attract an outsized number of Gen Z and millennial shoppers to our stores, which we believe bodes well for the future. Next, we source from an ever-changing universe of approximately 21,000 vendors in more than 100 countries. As a growing retailer with almost 5,000 stores, we believe many vendors want to work with TJX because we offer them a very attractive way to grow their business. All of this gives us great confidence that there will be plenty of quality branded merchandise available for us. Fifth, we believe our best in class buying organization is a tremendous advantage. Many of our more than 1,300 buyers have multiple decades of off-price buying experience, which we believe has allowed us to establish some of the best mutually beneficial vendor relationships in all of retail. Next, we continue to have a significant opportunity to grow our global store base. Long-term, we see the potential to open an additional 1,300-plus stores in with just our current banners in just our current countries. Lastly, but most important, is our talent. Throughout TJX, our management teams have deep, decades-long off-price expertise in the U.S. and internationally, which we believe is unmatched. Additionally, we are laser-focused on teaching and training to develop the next generation of leaders for our company. Finally, I am so proud of our culture, which I believe is a major differentiator and another key component of our success. We believe that the combination of all these characteristics is why we have such a long history of successful growth in many types of economic and retail environments. We're convinced that these aspects of our business are a tremendous advantage and will allow us to continue offering shoppers inspiring merchandise, outstanding value, and an exciting treasure hunt shopping experience every day. Turning to corporate responsibility, I am pleased to share with you that we recently published our 2023 Global Corporate Responsibility Report. The report summarizes our fiscal 2023 initiatives and progress within the four areas we focus on, workplace, communities, environmental sustainability, and responsible business. We are proud to continue to make progress in our programs and initiatives, and we aim to provide our stakeholders with relevant information through our report and website. I'm grateful to our teams around the globe for the work that they do to support our global priorities. As always, we invite you to visit TJX.com to read our full report and our updates throughout the year. Summing up, we were very pleased to deliver another quarter of strong sales and profitability. The fourth quarter is off to a strong start, and we are excited about the initiatives we have planned to drive sales and traffic this holiday season. Going forward, I want to assure you that we are laser-focused on further improving the profitability of TJX over the long term. Further, I am convinced that the key characteristics of our business have set us up extremely well to take advantage of the market share opportunities we see ahead in the United States and internationally. Now, I'll turn the call back to John to cover our fourth quarter and full year guidance, and then we'll go on to open it up for questions.
John
Thanks again, Ernie. Before I start, I want to remind you that our fiscal 24 calendar includes an extra week in the fourth quarter. Now, starting with our fourth quarter guidance, we will continue to expect overall comp store sales growth to be up 3% to 4%. As a reminder, our comp guidance for the fourth quarter excludes our expected sales from the extra week in the quarter. For the fourth quarter, we expect consolidated sales to be in the range of $15.9 to $16.1 billion, which includes approximately $800 million of revenue expected from from the extra week. We now expect fourth quarter pre-tax profit margin to be in the range of 10.4 to 10.6%. Excluding an expected benefit of approximately 40 basis points from the extra week, we expect adjusted pre-tax profit margin to be in the range of 10.0 to 10.2%. On a 13-week basis, this would represent an increase of 80 to 100 basis points versus last year's pre-tax profit margin of 9.2%. The decrease in the fourth quarter pre-tax profit margin guidance is due to the expected reversal of the approximately 40 basis point benefit we saw in the third quarter from the timing of expenses. Next, we expect fourth quarter gross margin on a 13-week basis to be in the range of 28.2% to 28.4%, up 210 to 230 basis points versus last year. We're planning a significant benefit from lower freight costs as well as a benefit from our year-over-year shrink accrual partially offset by headwinds from our ongoing supply chain investments. On a 13-week basis, we're planning fourth quarter SG&A to be approximately 18.5%, up 150 basis points versus last year. This expected increase is primarily driven by incremental store wage and payroll costs and higher incentive accruals. For modeling purposes, we're currently assuming a fourth quarter tax rate of 26%, net interest income on a 13-week basis of about $49 million, and a weighted average share count of approximately 1.15 billion shares. As a result of these assumptions, we now expect fourth quarter earnings per share to be in the range of $1.07 to $1.10, excluding an expected benefit of approximately 10 pennies from the extra week. We expect fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $0.97 to $1. On a 13-week basis, this will represent an increase of 9% to 12% versus a last year's earnings per share of 89 cents. I want to be clear that our assumptions for comp sales, pre-tax profit margin, and earnings per share for the fourth quarter are unchanged versus our previous guidance. The decrease in the fourth quarter pre-tax profit margin and earnings per share guidance is due to the expected reversal of the approximately 40 basis point and three penny benefit from the timing of expenses that we saw in the third quarter. Now to the full year. We are now expecting overall comp store sales increase of 4% to 5%. As a reminder, our comp guidance excludes our expected sales from the 53rd week. For the full year, we now expect consolidated sales to be in the range of $53.7 to $53.9 billion, which includes approximately $800 million of revenue expected from the 53rd week. We expect full-year pre-tax profit margin to be approximately 10.8%. Excluding an expected benefit of approximately 10 basis points from the 53rd week, we expect adjusted pre-tax profit margin to be approximately 10.7%. On a 52-week basis, this would represent an increase of 100 basis points versus fiscal 23's pre-tax profit margin of 9.7%. Regarding shrink, our indicators are still leading us to believe that we can continue to plan shrink flat for fiscal 24. As a reminder, we will not know the full effect of our shrink initiatives or the accuracy of our indicators until we do a full annual inventory count in January. Moving to full-year adjusted gross margin on a 52-week basis, we now expect it to be approximately 29.6%, a 200 basis point increase versus last year. We expect virtually all of this increase to be driven by a benefit from lower freight costs. This guidance also assumes a continuation of headwinds from our supply chain investments. We are very pleased with the level of freight recapture we've seen so far this year and remain focused on looking for ways to reduce our freight costs going forward. For the full year adjusted SG&A on a 52-week basis, we are now expecting it to be approximately 19.2%, a 130 basis point increase versus last year. This expected increase is primarily driven by incremental store wage and payroll costs and higher incentive accruals. So modeling purposes, we're currently assuming a full-year tax rate of 25.7%, net interest income on a 52-week basis of about $165 million, and a weighted average share count of approximately 1.16 billion shares. As a result of our above-planned third quarter earnings performance, we are increasing our full-year earnings per share guidance to a range of $3.71 to $3.74. Excluding an expected benefit of approximately 10 pennies from the 53rd week, we expect adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $3.61 to $3.64. On a 52-week basis, This would represent an increase of 16 to 17% versus fiscal 23's adjusted earnings per share of $3.11. It's important to understand that we did not flow through the entire third quarter earnings per share beat to the fourth quarter because the three pennies of costs related to closing of the e-commerce business. In closing, I want to reiterate that we are very pleased with the execution of our teams across the company in the third quarter and are confident in our plans for the fourth quarter. Long term, I want to reiterate that we will not be complacent when it comes to looking at ways to improve our profitability. We have a very strong balance sheet and are in an excellent financial position to invest in the growth of our business and simultaneously return significant cash to our shareholders. Now we are happy to take your questions. As we do every quarter, we're going to ask that you please limit your questions to one per person so we can keep the call on schedule and answer as many questions as we can. Thanks, and now we'll open it up for questions.
Operator
Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1. If you need to withdraw your question at any time, you may do so by pressing star 2. Our first question comes from the line of Lorraine from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning.
spk05
Your gross margins are now trending nicely above pre-COVID levels. You just said you won't be complacent about finding opportunities for margin expansion. So can you talk about the two or three factors that you're most excited about to expand your gross margin in the coming years?
John
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you know, the top thing is, you know, continuing to drive our top line sales is important. And where we see opportunities as other retailers increase their average retails, you know, we can hold our 20% to 60% value gap and raise ours as well.
Ernie Herman
Yeah, Lorraine, it's obviously top of mind for all of our merchant teams in terms of how we're retailing the goods and managing our inventory flow. And like anything else, those teams have just continued to get better and better in terms of how we flow the merchandise. And one reason our merchandise has been a healthy margin year to date and last year is not only because of the way we bought, it's also the way our planning and allocation teams have flowed the goods, which has helped with our sales, of course, having the right goods in the right stores at the right time, but also in the way we float it, we have saved markdowns appropriately in categories. So we're very bullish on that. I think we mean more to the vendors today than ever before, and I think that's another facet of why we're very bullish on where our merchandise margins can go. And I think, John, when he's mentioning that, you're ultimately talking about market share with, you know, store closures, et cetera. But even if those fall off, we're not anticipating stores close at the same rate. We still have a base now of customers and a value umbrella, which I think what John was talking about is we are positioned with tremendous opportunity to still show our 20% to 60% off and still retail goods – advantageously, I would say, and then still buy better with all of the availability that's out there. So multiple factors going on. All going back to why I would say we are always happy to see a seasoned buying team like we have with such consistency and tenure over the years. This is what allows you to sleep at night and know you're going to take advantage of those opportunities with the vendor community.
Operator
Thank you.
Ernie Herman
Thank you.
Operator
Next, we'll go to the line of Paul from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Paul
Hey, thanks. Just a little bit more on gross margin. Curious on freight, if you got back all of what you lost in 3Q last year, was it even more than that? And where is the upside coming from within the freight line? And I'm also curious, can you talk about the pure merge margin excluding freight, just considering your average unit cost and average unit retail? Thanks.
John
Yeah, so on freight, so compared to FY20, you know, we lost 300 basis points. And so we've gotten back about two-thirds of that. We've done it through obviously the rates that we've negotiated have been favorable. And we had some benefit from our year-over-year accrual, but we're also implementing a lot of initiatives to try to be as efficient as we can in our freight. So some of those initiatives are, you know, how we move the merchandise from ports to our DCs, from DCs to stores. So that's where we've seen a lot of benefit as well. Going forward, so... There's a bit of stickiness in the freight costs. As we've seen this year, there was a rail strike, so wages went up on rail salaries. Truck driver salaries have gone up. So there's a bit of stickiness in the domestic freight, which is the lion's share of our freight rate. So we don't believe at this point now that we'll get back all of the freight, but we'll continue to look at ways to be as efficient as we can on the freight rate going forward. And just to remind you, a lot of the freight benefit that we're seeing this year has been a pull forward of what we expected to see in FY25. So we're seeing a lion's share of that coming in in FY24. And so for FY25, again, it's about looking for ways to be more efficient, you know, with initiatives internally.
Paul
Thanks, John. And the pure merch margin, X rate?
John
Merch margin. So the underlying merch margin, so MarMax was up. We did see a bit of headwind in FX rates for Canada and Europe. But, you know, we're seeing a benefit in the MarMax division.
Ernie Herman
Yeah, Paul, and I'll jump in there as well. I'll tell you, another place where I think we have an advantage on merchandise margin going forward is in our home business. So our home business, as you can tell from these results, which we are very bullish on, we feel is going to be very contrarian to the marketplace and much healthier than the marketplace. And with that, based on the momentum that we've seen, and you can see it improving every quarter. John and I have talked about it every quarter. And then, you know, coming out of this quarter with a nine comp in home goods is just way above the market. But our Marmax home business is very healthy. And our other home business and the other divisions have improved as well. That is an area where we think there's specifically margin opportunity because some of our margin is on the mix of departments within TJX. And as home now going forward over the next couple of years, we're anticipating that to kind of grow in percent to total for us. I think that's going to help our merchandise margin in total TJX. So just FYI, that's another bright spot in terms of merchandise margin directly.
Paul
Got it. Thank you. Good luck, guys. Thanks.
Operator
Next, we'll go to the line of Adrian from Barclays.
Ernie
Please go ahead. Yes. Very well done. The stores look fantastic. Thanks. So, Ernie, I guess my question is on, you know, we're hearing, we've had a wholesale report, and they talk about kind of the spring season and the internal retail department stores buying down for the first half. How do you think about that in terms of availability for next year and the continuation of this kind of great buying environment. I know it's always great, but it seems like there's a disconnect between their plan right now and maybe what's actually kind of being realized as we hear from the wholesalers. Thank you very much.
Ernie Herman
Sure, Adrienne. You know, it's ironic that the two people sitting here with me, we've talked about this yesterday as we were kind of talking, you know, prepping for the call that ironically when we're always saying that There is a, I don't know, we've used all different types of words. Phenomenal availability. I don't know if we used plethora of words out there.
Adrienne
We haven't used that one yet either.
Ernie Herman
But then we keep getting pleasantly surprised because the world, how do I put this, a world that has a lot going on in terms of, instability and trends in different retail around domestically and globally just continues to create more spill-off. Part of that is a lot of these companies that would like to clean up, they're public companies. They cannot back off trying to push the envelope to grow. And so for whatever reason, I understand how one might one season be able to cut back successfully and But over the course of multiple seasons and in total with the 21,000 vendors where it always ebbs and flows by vendor, there's just always more. And I can't picture in this environment where the sales projections are so erratic that there won't be more. And I'll go to another key point, which is the e-com business. So the e-com business, we've talked about this before, Adrian, not with just yourself but the group, is that e-com has created more spill-off. Well, the e-com – If you look at the volatility in e-com trends over the last 12 months, especially in apparel, their forecasts have been way off from where they're trending because I think the e-com business is a little bit more fickle. So I think that's going to actually spill off more than what some of the more traditional brick-and-mortar vendors might be able to pull back on. So I just see it. staying at similar levels of tremendous availability.
John
Yeah, and Ernie talked about the importance we have with our vendors. We add thousands of vendors every year. So, again, we're just becoming that more important to the marketplace.
Ernie
Fantastic. Great answer. Best of luck for holiday.
Ernie Herman
Thank you, Adrienne.
Operator
Next we'll go to the line of Matthew from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Matthew
Great, thanks, and congrats on another nice quarter. Thanks, Matt. Thanks. So, Ernie, with the continued strength in apparel, and now it's complemented by the acceleration in home, is there a way to speak to maybe the scale opportunity to drive market share across the wider demographic reach? And then, John, could you just help elaborate on pre-tax margin puts and takes to consider multi-year, or maybe relative to the historical model, flow through if comps were to remain consistent going forward?
Ernie Herman
Yeah, great questions, Matt. I'll go to the scale of the model, specifically in apparel, and then I'll let John take the other part. But, yeah, we do look at it that way because also some of the competitors, specifically brick and mortar out there, have not done a good job in apparel. And we have had a consistently pretty healthy apparel business that makes us feel like, again, market share opportunity, which is what you're talking about, We've already started looking at our apparel plans for the spring season and identifying which pockets of apparel in which areas, in which parts of the country, by the way, we think have opportunities for us to almost take the market share from items and categories that aren't being serviced by the competition anymore. as much as they used to. So I don't want to give you the exact categories, but there's a handful of categories, by the way, which happen to skew a little younger in our customer audience. So we get a bit of a win-win there, Matt, in terms of the categories we go after. But that is our objective, not just in home, but to continue to exploit the apparel opportunity that's out there. The other neat thing that's happening is because of department store and specialty store and online business not being as healthy in apparel, some of those key brands are more interested in doing more additional SKUs with us than in the past. So we're getting wider assortments in some of the brands that we've always had, but we're able to get wider assortments there, which also helps our treasure hunt and our ability to do more business there and keep the turrets healthy. So, John?
John
Yeah, Matt. So, just to, you know, answer your second part of your question, you know, I'd say we're, first of all, we're very pleased to get back to, you know, really, you know, we're forecasting to be beyond where we were in FY20 pre-tax profit margin. And, again, that's with, you know, approximately 100 basis points of more freight headwinds. As I said earlier in the call, we've probably gotten back two-thirds of our freight from where we were. So that really speaks to the performance of our merchandise margin versus FY20. But going forward, we are not going to be complacent. We're always going to strive to improve our profitability. And, again, you know, the best way to improve our profitability is with, you know, our outsized sales and controlling our costs. So we're laser focused on that part of it.
Matthew
Great. Best of luck.
John
Thank you.
Operator
Next we'll go to the line of Chuck from Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.
Chuck
Hey, thanks very much. Great quarter. Some of you guys talked about the cadence of sales in the quarter, particularly in October, and the temperatures were a bit higher nationally, and in some pockets actually very warm. I'm just curious if there's any discernible slowdown during this time period, and if you've seen that demand recapture so far in November as temperatures have normalized.
John
Yeah, so, you know, the cadence of the quarter, August and September, you know, were strong. the October when the warmer weather did set in, and I'll add in there, you know, the geopolitical events that are also taking place, you know, we did see our trend, you know, a little bit of a drop from our August-September trend. But when we saw the weather cool down, And towards the end of October, we saw our sales trends return. So, you know, and again, you know, we're – you know, our fourth quarter is off to a strong start, as we said in our – not only our earnings release, but also our prepared remarks this morning.
Chuck
Great. Thank you.
Operator
Next, we'll go to the line of Brooke from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
spk07
Good morning, and thank you for taking our question. Can you elaborate on your outlook for comp growth between traffic versus ticket as you look forward? Did you happen to see any shifts in ticket this quarter versus your expectations? And how much more opportunity do you see to continue with the pricing strategy that has been successful year to date? Thank you.
John
Yeah, so as far as what we saw in tickets, again, our sales were driven by transactions. As expected, you know, we did see a drop in our ticket, you know, that was offset by – partially offset by additional units, as we've seen historically. But, again, you know, the important thing is driving that top line through transactions we feel is a very healthy way for us to drive our business. And, again, that ticket drop is due to mix. It's mix-related within categories.
Ernie Herman
Yeah, and, Brooke, just to remind you, we don't drive the – and I think John started that touch on it – we don't drive our ticket, our average – we don't have a top-down strategy to drive our average ticket up or down. We let the – it really starts at the buyer or merchandise manager levels when they're saying these are the right values and having a good, better mix, good, better, best mix. And it translates into, hey, these are the right values. And it could, if there's a hot category, like John said, and it happens to be a lower ticket, we're going to not go after that because our market share gain is still the priority and driving sales and top line. In terms of your second part of your question, the opportunity on continuing the pricing strategy, yes. We feel like we're in a good place on that. I think that will be a consistent opportunity as we look forward. We kind of monitor as we look as we go into first quarter of next year at this point. And I would say we're positioned right where we would think we would be. And, you know, there's a lot of – there's a combination in this environment with so much goods, and we're always wary of where other retailers are going to potentially promote goods. So, again, we're very selective on where we do it, but we have been seeing us, the ability to continue to retail, grab where appropriate, at the same time actually buy a little bit better, and that's where we get some of the merchandise margin mark-on benefit. So, you know, again, feeling good about it. But we're always watching a very, very – balanced, I would say, and surgically.
John
And look, our customers are telling us that their value perception of us remains very strong, which is, again, is key.
Ernie Herman
Yeah. We do surveys and we get data on perception. Our perception right now actually has improved on their perception of our values relative to others. Thank you for that question.
Operator
Next, we'll go to the line of Alex from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
spk00
Perfect. Congrats on a great quarter, guys. I wanted to focus on MARMACs. it's operating margin has been at, you know, about 14% almost all year compared to slightly below that pre-COVID. So I'm just wondering, how do you think about that? Are we at peak or are there still headwinds hurting that segment? And how do you think about it from here? Thanks a lot.
John
I mean, yeah, look, you know, we're very pleased about, you know, driving a seven comp entirely through traffic and, You know, we've seen nice benefit from the freight. But, you know, look, we're continuing to see this year. I mean, we've had headwinds on supply chain and wage. But we feel really good about where we are as far as a pre-tax profit margin being up 50 basis points versus last year.
spk00
Thanks a lot. Good luck.
Operator
Next, we'll go to the line of Michael from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Michael
Hey, guys. Let me add my congrats on a nice quarter. Can you help us think about what slow through will look like on the SG&A side as we think about potential for comp upside in the fourth quarter and maybe some thoughts on SG&A growth or leverage for next year? I know this year is largely defined by some structural labor issues that you've spoken about and then restoring incentive comp, but maybe you could help with some thoughts on the go-forward leverage point on SG&A as we kind of transition off of that kind of year this year into next year, and then I have a follow-up.
John
Yeah, I mean, so SG&A for the fourth quarter, you know, is primarily due to incremental store wage and payroll costs and higher incentive accruals. When we look out next year, while we haven't completed our planning process, we would expect that we would not see the increases that we saw this year. And again, we're not giving guidance, but that's what we would expect. And I would say that as far as the leverage point, I would say that that's unchanged from what we've said.
Michael
Okay. And as you look at, I guess, thinking about Alex's question, as you look at where home goods margins are today, still below 2019 levels, I know there's a lot of freight impacting that business. And you told us that's still behind versus 2019. You don't expect to get it all back. But if you take out freight in that business, do you still see opportunities to kind of get back to where you were 2019 like you have at Marmax? Or maybe some thoughts on some of the differences in the structural, I guess, the cost structure for that business as we kind of come out of some of these moving parts?
John
I mean, look, the cost structure, as we've said before, is, you know, it has a higher freight rate. So when we talk about getting back only two-thirds of the freight, you know, home goods is going to be, you know, a little bit more impacted on the freight line. But, again, you know, it's similar. You know, the headwinds are similar when we talk about store wage and payroll costs, you know, and supply chain investments. So... You know, look, we're really pleased with the improvements we've made to HomeGoods' bottom line throughout the year. And, you know, looking out, we're focused on continuing to drive that bottom line.
Michael
Okay, excellent. Thanks a lot, and good luck with the holiday, everyone.
Operator
Next, we'll go to the line of Dana from Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead.
Dana
Hi. Good morning, everyone, and congratulations on the nice results. As we continue to hear about department stores ordering spring down, even in some instances down high single digits, how do you see your merchandising opportunity to take on better brands going forward? And do you see this reduction in orders from other wholesale accounts as a market share tailwind for you to gain share? Thank you.
Ernie Herman
Dana, that was a classic, right in the sweet spot of a merchant question right there. Strategically, I would say yes and yes. The reduction and their ordering just is a little similar to what we spoke about earlier, where we're becoming a little more important to most of the brands. And I think with a lot of them talking about cutting back, I think they're going to look to us as a way to kind of even off that up-and-down rollercoaster ride, which they don't want to typically see in their business. So, you know, we buy in a lot of different ways. And our teams right now in many of those pockets of business are in talks with some of these vendors to figure out how to do what's mutually beneficial, as we actually said in the script. What's been really neat to see ever since it was true prior to COVID, but I think even more so post-COVID, that our buyers are great at figuring out the mutually beneficial way to work with a vendor. And the vendors love our buyers for that reason because we figure out opportunities that are good for them and good for us. And this is a classic case where this is happening to many buyers. pockets of business around it. We think it better positions us. And it also, we're allowed to kind of more tailor it to the brands that we think, you know, work to balance off our good, better, best, which I think is also what you're touching on there indirectly. So again, thank you for the, thank you.
Dana
Do you see new category opportunities too, Ernie?
Ernie Herman
Yeah, I think, well, if, Probably a couple new or more of expanding ones that have been not nearly as big as they could have been. So what we see probably, yes, we always see new ones. But, Dana, what we're seeing now is we've had some, again, we don't talk publicly. We don't announce to competition what really helped driving our comps because, you know, obviously they're very healthy. But what we're seeing is there's a few categories that have been so good that We are just looking at now in terms of moving even more staff into them, how to even explode them to a much larger degree, and that's how we're on it. So I would say that is more of what's going on right now. It's a little of what you're talking about, but it's more about these big families of business that we are really driving increases with. We think we can do even more by making sure we have the right buying team that can get more market coverage. And, by the way, again, I mentioned it earlier on the call, our planning teams are essential. When we explode a category in a department, they're the ones that help the store and the stores get it all set up appropriately. They're the ones that really help the stores and the buyers get the goods to the stores in the right manner to actually drive those sales. So we have two or three categories at a high level I'm thinking of that are going to be. Huge, huge impact for us for next year. Again, ones we're already doing, but nearly not up to the degree we can drive. It's a big opportunity.
Operator
Thank you. Thank you.
Ernie Herman
Thank you.
Operator
Next, we'll go to the line of Simeon from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
spk14
Thanks. Hey, good morning, everyone. I just wanted to clarify a prior point, if I could. The home goods e-com costs that you called out, were those costs to close the business and more one time, or were they an impact from losing the volume? I think you had suggested it was the former, but I wanted to confirm that. Because if so, excluding those costs, wasn't home goods margins already up pretty nicely? Weren't they about pre-pandemic? So I just wanted to check on that. And if that is the case, any reason the home goods margins shouldn't maintain this underlying expansion? Thank you.
John
Yeah, so the costs associated with that were mainly costs to shut the business down. And moving forward, we would expect next year that this would be, you know, slightly accretive. I mean, don't forget the HomeGoods.com was not a big portion of our overall business. So, but yeah, the piece that it is, it would be accretive.
spk14
Great. Okay, thanks. And then... Ernie, any color on where the customer traffic's coming from? Any general views on, again, it's hard to do, but segmenting the traffic growth between new and returning customers?
Ernie Herman
Yeah, very broad. In fact, we talk about this. One of the things that we're very bullish about is how broadly and diversified our traffic is from income and age groups. And it's very balanced. Obviously, we've had a greater percent of younger customers growing over the last, I don't know, three to five years, I guess you'd say. But of recent, we're very happy with how broad the customer traffic draw has been.
John
Yeah, we believe we're attracting newer customers to our business, just generally speaking.
Ernie Herman
Which I think you were just asking about as well. Yeah, so also a great barometer. that were reflecting the younger demos, but in balance. You know, it's grown, but it's all very balanced by age group and income demographics.
spk14
Perfect. Thanks a lot, guys. Best of luck for the rest of the year, and happy holidays to you and your families.
Ernie Herman
Same to you, and thank you.
Operator
And for the final question of the day, we'll go to the line of Ed from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Ed
Hey, thanks for taking the question. It seems like you guys have been expanding square footage in a category like beauty. It seems like that's getting some traction. We'd love to just kind of think broadly about the opportunity there, if you've been kind of making some of those explosions, as you've called them, within the category, and kind of what the relationship has been like with those vendors, given that that hasn't historically been an area of focus for off-price. Thanks.
Ernie Herman
Ed, you guys are full with good merchant questions and observations today. Those are very good. Yeah, that's a good example. You can visibly see it, obviously, right? What happens in a situation like that is we do show – it's not typical off-price, but as you know, if you walk that area, we're showing very strong values and an eclectic mix and one that's changing. It's classic treasure hunt. And we have a few of those type of businesses around the store. That's one that you've probably walked in and seen some new fixturing, et cetera. And so – you are touching on the type of business where we really go after it. Those vendor relationships are great. We have buying teams in the beauty area that have really worked well with the market, and they're always looking for new items and or SKUs and or categories within that whole family of business to continue to do more. I won't talk about the couple others because we have others within the store that – we can explode as well and go after very aggressively. So I hope that answers your question, though. You know, we have a lot. This is how we look where there's demand and where we can really take market share and offer tremendous value in brands. And, you know, that is one of them.
Ed
Thanks so much.
Ernie Herman
Thank you.
Operator
And that was our final question for today.
Ernie Herman
Okay. Ivy, thank you. Thank you all for joining us today. And we look forward to updating you again on our fourth quarter earnings call in February. Everybody take care. Bye. Thank you.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes your conference call for today. You may all disconnect, and thank you all for participating.
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