Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Thermo Fisher Scientific 2024 fourth-quarter conference call. My name is Ezra and I will be your coordinator today. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. I would like to introduce our moderator for the call, Mr. Rafael Tejada, Vice President Investor Relations. Mr. Tejada, you may begin the call.

Good morning and thank you for joining us. On the call with me today is Mark Casper, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Stephen Williamson, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please note this call is being webcast live and will be archived on the Investor section of our website, Thermo Fisher.com, under the heading News, Events and Presentations. Until February 13th, 2025, a copy of the press release of our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings is available in the Investor section of our website under the heading Financials. So before we begin, let me briefly cover our Safe Harbor statement. Various remarks that we may make about the company's future expectations, plans and prospects constitute forward looking statements for purposes of the Safe Harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the company's most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, which are on file with the SEC and available in the Investor section of our website under the heading Financials, SEC Violence. While we may elect to update forward looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimates change. Therefore, you should not rely on these forward looking statements as representing our views as of any date subsequent to today. Also, during this call, we will be referring to certain financial measures not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available in the press release of our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings and also in the Investor section of our website under the heading Financials. So with that, I'll now turn the call over to Mark.

Thank you, Raph. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today for our fourth quarter call. As you saw in our press release, we delivered an excellent finish to 2024 with strong revenue and earnings growth. Our fourth quarter results continue to highlight the strength of our operational and commercial execution. As I reflect on our performance for the full year, I'm very proud of our team as they continue to enable the success of our customers. This resulted in meaningful market share gains and strengthening our trusted partner status with our customers. We are incredibly well positioned for the future. I'll get into more detail later in my remarks, but first let me recap the financials, starting with the quarter. Our revenue in Q4 grew 5% year over year to $11.4 billion. Our adjusted operating income grew 7% to $2.72 billion. We expanded our adjusted operating margins by 50 basis points to .9% and we delivered strong adjusted EPS performance, growing adjusted EPS 8% to $6.10 per share in the quarter. Then in terms of our full year results, our revenue was $42.9 billion in 2024. Adjusted operating income was $9.71 billion and adjusted EPS was $21.86 per share. Turning to our performance by end market, in the fourth quarter, underlying market conditions played out as we expected and continue to improve. Our team's excellent execution resulted in revenue performance that was ahead of our expectations and we delivered positive revenue growth across all of our end markets. Let me provide you with some additional context. Starting with pharma and biotech, we grew in the mid single digits in Q4. This marks the fourth quarter in a row of sequential improvement for this customer segment. Performance in the quarter was led by our research and safety market channel, pharma services, and bioproduction businesses. For the full year, pharma and biotech declined in the low single digits, which included a mid single digit headwind from the runoff of vaccine and therapy related revenue. In academic and government, we grew in the high single digits during the quarter and in the low single digits for the full year. In the quarter, we delivered strong growth in chromatography and mass spectrometry and in our research and safety market channel. In industrial and applied, we grew in the high single digits during the quarter and low single digits for the full year. Growth in the quarter was highlighted by strong performance in our electro-microscopy business and in our research and safety market channel. Finally, in diagnostics and healthcare, we grew in the low single digits during the quarter and declined low single digits for the full year. As a reminder, the reported growth in this end market was impacted by the runoff of COVID-19 testing related revenue. During the quarter and the full year, the team delivered good core revenue growth, highlighted by our transplant diagnostics, immunodiagnostics, and our healthcare market channel. Thanks to our proven growth strategy and our team's excellent execution, we delivered a strong finish across all of our end markets, continuing to drive meaningful share gain. As a reminder, our strategy consists of three pillars. High impact innovation, our trusted partner status with customers, and our unparalleled commercial engine. As you know, our growth strategy really resonates with our customers, and throughout the year, we have continuously strengthened our company to be even more relevant for the future. Let me give you some highlights. Starting with the first pillar, we had another really terrific year of high impact innovation. Throughout 2024, we launched outstanding products across our businesses that strengthen our industry leadership by enabling our customers to advance their important work. In chromatography and mass spectrometry this year, it was highlighted by the launch of our thermoscientific stellar mass spectrometer, which complements our award winning thermoscientific orbitrapt astral, launched in 2023 by validating biomarker candidates of interest to advance clinical research. It's been great to see the significant impact these two mass spectrometers are having on advancing science. We also launched the thermoscientific Dionics Nuvion ion chromatography system, which streamlines environmental testing in industrial and applied settings, helping our customers identify contaminants more efficiently. In electron microscopy, we launched the thermoscientific Iliad scanning transmission electron microscope, which integrates a number of advanced analytical technologies into a seamless and user friendly workflow to enable the development of advanced materials. In our biosciences business, we launched the applied biosystems Magmax sequential DNA RNA kit, which maximizes the isolation of DNA and RNA from blood cancer samples, helping researchers identify unique insights into cancer causing genetic alterations. And in bioproduction, we launched the first of its kind bio based film for our single use technologies, developed with plant based material rather than fossil fuel materials. This innovative film provides lower carbon solutions for the production of biologics. We continue this great innovation momentum in the fourth quarter. In chromatography and mass spectrometry, we launched the thermoscientific ICAP MX series ICP-MS. An inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry platform designed to streamline trace elemental analysis for environmental, food, industrial and research laboratories. And in life science solutions, we introduced new additions to the GIPCO CTS detachable dynamites platform to further enhance the development and manufacturing of life changing cell therapies. So another year of innovation that was spectacular and we have an exciting pipeline for the future as well. In 2024 we also continue to strengthen our industry leading commercial engine and deepen our trusted partner status with customers to accelerate their innovation and enhance their productivity. Throughout the year, we expanded our capabilities to meet our current our customers current and future needs. This included expanding our pharma services and clinical research capabilities in the US and Europe. To be an even stronger partner for our pharma and biotech customers in the fourth quarter, we introduced our accelerator drug development solution. This truly unique offering leverages our combined CDMO and CRO capabilities to enable our customers to move their critical drug development programs forward with speed, quality and efficiency. Helping to improve their return on their R&D investments. This is a huge value add for our customers and not something they can do alone or with our competitors. Customer feedback has been incredibly positive. We're winning new business and we're excited about the future impact of our accelerated drug development capabilities. We also made significant advancements in partnerships and collaborations with our customers throughout the year. This included our partnership with the National Cancer Institute on the MILO match precision medicine umbrella trial, which we announced in July. And then the FDA approval for our ion torrent oncomine DX target test. That's another example of our customer partnerships. This is a next generation sequencing based assay to be used as a companion diagnostic for surveyors first treatment for patients living with glioma, a type of brain cancer. Finally, during the fourth quarter, we entered into a partnership with the University of Arkansas for medical sciences to establish a thermal Fisher scientific center of excellence for proteomics there. These partnerships demonstrate how close we are working with our customers to enable their success and drive meaningful impact for patients. So as you can see, it was another excellent year of advancing our growth strategy. As always, our PPI business system continue to enable outstanding execution throughout the year. PPI engages and empowers all of our colleagues to find a better way every day. PPI is helping us to drive share game and improve quality, productivity and customer allegiance. We're also benefiting from the application of generative AI into our PPI business system. Our colleagues around the world are actively deploying gen AI finding new ways to improve the customer experience, streamline internal processes and enhance our products and services. So not only the PPI contribute to our excellent financial results. It's also helping our team to find new ways to enable our customer success, ensuring a very bright future for our company. Turning to capital deployment. We continue to successfully execute our discipline capital deployment strategy to create tremendous value. We do this through a combination of strategic M&A and substantial return of capital to our shareholders. In 2024 we returned $4.6 billion of capital to our shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends, including repurchasing a billion dollars of shares in the fourth quarter. In terms of M&A during the year we completed our acquisition of O-Link, a leading provider of advanced solutions for proteomics research. O-Link is now our proteomics science business. The integration is progressing smoothly and just after quarter end our O-Link technology was selected by the UK Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project to support the world's largest human proteomics study of its kind, the latest validation of the value of our capabilities. When I think about our disciplined approach to M&A and our unparalleled track record, it's all about long term value creation for our shareholders. We just celebrated the two year anniversary of the acquisition of the binding site, now our protein diagnostics business. This business performed incredibly well again in 2024, delivering low teens growth, launching new products and driving a great return on investment. This is a recent example of the impact of our proven capital deployment strategy in action. Let me now give you a brief update on our corporate social responsibility initiatives. As a mission driven company, we help to make the world a better place by enabling the important work of our customers. We also have a positive impact by supporting our communities and being a good steward of our planet and are proud of the actions we took in 2024 in this regard. We made meaningful progress on our net zero roadmap by reducing our emissions, increasing the number of our zero waste certified sites and launching new greener products and shipping solutions. We also form new collaborations to improve health outcomes across the globe and we were named one of the world's most innovative companies by Fast Company for our significant contributions in diagnostics that help to advance health equity. Additionally, we continue to advance our STEM education programs reaching more than 180,000 students globally. This helps to ensure we have students engaged in the sciences, as ultimately they'll become our future customers. As a reflect on the year, I'm very proud of what our team accomplished. We have more than 120,000 passionate colleagues who are dedicated to enabling our customer success and advancing science. Together, we continue to build a bright future for our company and I'm very excited about the year ahead. So let me now turn to guidance. Stephen will outline the assumptions that factor into the guidance, but let me quickly cover the highlights. In 2025, we will once again deliver strong share gain and our PPI business system will enable outstanding execution and we will deliver very strong earnings growth. We're initiating a 2025 revenue guidance in the range of $43.5 billion to $44 billion, which assumes -4% organic growth. And an adjusted EPS guidance range of $23.10 to $23.50, which represents -8% growth in adjusted earnings per share. We're in a great position as we enter 2025. I'm incredibly excited by the opportunities we have with our customers and to create value for all of our stakeholders and build an even brighter future for our company. So to summarize our key takeaways for 2024, our proven growth strategy continues to drive significant share gain. We continue to elevate our trusted partner status and deepen the relationships with many customers. And this in combination with the power of our PPI business system enabled us to deliver an excellent finish to 2024 with differentiated performance for the quarter and the full year. As we enter 2025 with strong momentum, we are well positioned to deliver excellent financial performance and further strengthen our long term competitive position. With that, I'll now hand the call over to our CFO, Stephen Williamson. Stephen?

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. As you saw in that press release, we had an excellent Q4. The team executed really well in the quarter and we delivered Q4 financials significantly ahead of what was assumed in the midpoint of our prior guide. We beat Q4 organic growth by just under two points, adjusted EPS by 14 cents, and we ended the year with very strong free cash flow, delivering $7.3 billion for the year. Looking back on Q24, we had a very successful year. The markets played out as we outlined at the beginning of the year with growth steadily improving each quarter. Our proven growth strategy drove consistent share gain and the PPI business system enabled great execution. All of this enabled us to consistently deliver differentiated financial performance throughout the year, all while further strengthening our industry leadership. This puts us in a great position to deliver an excellent 2025. Let me now provide you with some additional details on our Q4 and full year 2024 performance, starting with earnings for share. In the quarter, adjusted EPS grew 8% to $6.10. For the full year, we delivered adjusted EPS of $21.86. Gap EPS in the quarter was $4.78 and for the full year, it was $16.53. On the top line, Q4 reported revenue grew 5% year over year. The components of our reported revenue change included 4% organic growth, a 1% contribution from acquisitions, and a slight headwind from foreign exchange. In Q4, core organic revenue increased 5%. For the full year 2024, reported organic and core organic revenue were all flat year over year. In 2024, we delivered $520 million of pandemic related revenue comprised of approximately $100 million of testing and $420 million from vaccines and therapies. Turning to our organic revenue performance by geography, in Q4, North America grew mid single digits, Europe grew low single digits, and Asia Pacific grew high single digits with China growing mid single digits. For the full year, North America declined low single digits, Europe was flat year over year, and Asia Pacific and China within Asia Pacific grew low single digits. With respect to our operational performance, we delivered $2.72 billion of adjusted operating income in the quarter, an increase of 7% year over year, and adjusted operating margin was 23.9%, 50 basis points higher than Q4 last year. In the quarter, we delivered strong productivity reflecting the continued execution of our cost management initiatives and we drove good volume pull through. This enabled us to fund strategic investments to further advance our industry leadership and offset the expected impact of unfavorable mix this quarter. For the full year, we delivered $9.71 billion of adjusted operating income and adjusted operating margin was 22.6%. Total company adjusted gross margin in the quarter was 43.2%, 170 basis points higher than Q4 last year. For the full year adjusted gross margin was 42.2%, an increase of 100 basis points versus 2023. Moving on to the details of the P&L, adjusted SG&A in the quarter was .1% of revenue. For the full year adjusted SG&A was .3% of revenue. Total R&D expense was $374 million in Q4. For the full year R&D expense was $1.39 billion, up 4% year over year, reflecting our ongoing investments in high impact innovation. R&D as a percent of our manufacturing revenue for the full year was 7.2%. Looking at our results below the line, our Q4 net interest expense was $89 million, slightly higher than Q4 2023. Net interest expense for the full year was $312 million, a decrease of $183 million year over year, driven by effective management of our debt portfolio and our strong cash flow. The adjusted tax rate was .9% in Q4 and .5% for the full year, in line with our expectations. Average diluted shares were $383 million in Q4, $5 million lower year over year, driven by share repurchases net of option dilution. In Q4 we repurchased $1 billion of shares, bringing our total repurchases for 2024 to $4 billion. Turning to free cash flow and the balance sheet, full year cash flow from operations was $8.7 billion and free cash flow was $7.3 billion after investing $1.3 billion of net capital expenditures. During 2024 we deployed $7.7 billion of capital, $3.1 billion through M&A with the acquisition of O-Link and $4.6 billion through the return of capital to shareholders in the form of $4 billion of buybacks and approximately $600 million of dividends. We ended the quarter with $5.6 billion in cash and short term investments and $31.3 billion of total debt. A leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 2.9 times gross debt to adjusted EBITDA and 2.4 times on a net debt basis. In concluding my comments on our total company performance, adjusted ROIC was 11.6%, reflecting the strong returns on investment that we're generating across the company. Now provide some color on the performance of our four business segments, starting with life sciences solutions. Q4 reported revenue in this segment grew 5% and organic revenue growth was 3%. Growth in this segment was driven by a bioproduction and biosciences businesses. For the full year reported revenue declined 3% and organic revenue was 4% lower versus 2023. Q4 adjusted operating income for life science solutions increased 6% and adjusted operating margin was .6% up 40 basis points versus the prior year quarter. During Q4 we delivered strong productivity and good volume pull through, which was partially upset by unfavorable mix and strategic investments. For the full year adjusted operating income increased 2% and adjusted operating margin was 36.4%, an increase of 210 basis points versus 2023. In the analytical instrument segments reported revenue grew 7% and organic revenue growth was 8%. The strong growth in the quarter was led by electron microscopy and chromatography and mass spectrometry businesses. For the full year both reported revenue and organic revenue grew 3%. In this segment Q4 adjusted operating income increased 13% and adjusted operating margin was .5% up 170 basis points year over year. In the quarter we delivered strong productivity and good volume pull through and had favorable effects. This was partially upset by unfavorable mix and strategic investments. For the full year adjusted operating income increased 2% and adjusted operating margin was 26.2%, 10 basis points lower than 2023. Turning to specialty diagnostics in Q4 both reported revenue and organic revenue grew 5%. In Q4 growth in this segment was led by transplant diagnostics and immunodiagnostics businesses as well as our healthcare market channel. For the full year reported revenue increased 2% and organic revenue growth was 3%. Q4 adjusted operating income for specialty diagnostics increased 3% and adjusted operating margin was 23.6%, 30 basis points lower than Q4 2023. During the quarter we delivered good productivity which is more than offset by strategic investments. For the full year adjusted operating income was 3% higher than 2023 and adjusted operating margin was .7% and increased to 20 basis points versus the prior year. And finally in the barotre products and biopharmacist services segment both reported revenue and organic revenue grew 4% versus the prior year quarter. The runoff of vaccines and therapies revenue had a mid single digit impact on the growth in this segment in Q4. This was offset by very good growth in our pharmacist services business and research and safety market channel. For the full year reported revenue grew 1% and organic revenue was flat. In this segment Q4 adjusted operating income increased 3% and adjusted operating margin was 14% which is flat to Q4 2023. In the quarter we delivered strong productivity which is offset by strategic investments and unfavorable mix. For the full year adjusted operating income declined 8% and adjusted operating margin was .3% which is 130 basis points lower versus 2023. Setting now to guidance as Mark outlined we're initiating a 2025 revenue guidance range of 43.5 to 44 billion dollars. And an adjusted EPS guidance range of $23.10 to $23.50. This guidance assumes 3 to 4% organic revenue growth, a 1% headwind from the remaining runoff of the pandemic related revenue. And a .5% revenue headwind from foreign exchange. And approximately 90 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion. All of this will enable a really strong 6 to 8% growth in adjusted EPS. The strength of the guidance reflects our industry leading position, our proven growth strategy and the power of our PPI business system. Let me now provide some more detailed context behind the guide starting with the market growth framing. In 2024 we estimate the industry market growth was down low single digits. In 2025 we expect the market growth will be better than 2024. We expect market growth will be slightly positive for the year improving as the year progresses. With this market context and a very strong share gain we expect organic growth for 2025 to be in the range of 3 to 4%. Now as I commented earlier this includes a 1% headwind from the remainder of the pandemic runoff largely in our clinical research business. So the underlying total company growth is strong. Turning to FX, given recent changes in rates we're assuming there'll be a headwind from revenue from FX in 2025 of approximately $650 billion or 1.5 points. Putting all this together our top line guidance assumes a 1.5 to .5% increase in reported revenue dollars and a 3 to 4% increase in organic revenue. This is a strong step up from 2024. Moving on to the bottom line we expect to deliver a very strong year of adjusted EPS growth in 2025. The cost actions we took over the past couple of years are enabling very accretive pull through on the incremental dollars of revenue growth. And we will continue to use the PPI business system to drive productivity and actively manage our cost base. This will enable very strong adjusted operating margin expansion of approximately 90 basis points. Below the line we're effectively managing our debt and cash positions and taking advantage of great interest rates on cash deposits. And all of this will enable us to deliver adjusted EPS in the range of $23.10 and $23.50. Which is a very strong 6 to 8% growth for the year. In terms of potential changes in the macro environment our guidance is assumed to cover the impact of modest policy changes. And then to help you with your modeling here are a few additional assumptions behind the guide. We expect approximately $350 million of net interest expense in 2025. We assume that the adjusted income tax rate will be .5% in 2025, largely driven by the increased earnings. We're expecting between $1.4 and $1.7 billion of net capital expenditures in 2025. And we're assuming free cash flow is in the range of $7 billion to $7.4 billion for the year. In terms of capital deployment we're assuming $2 billion of share buybacks which were already completed in January. And we estimate the full year average diluted share count will be between 378 and 379 million shares. And we're assuming return approximately $600 million of capital to shareholders this year through dividends. And finally I wanted to touch on phasing for Q1. Embedded in the guidance for the year is an assumption that organic growth is flat in Q1 as is adjusted EPS growth in Q1. This is largely driven by Q1 having two less selling days than the prior year quarter and also the phasing of our services revenue within the year. So in conclusion Q4 capped off a very successful 2024. We expect to continue to manage the company and the opportunities really well in 2025. And a focus on delivering very strong share gains and adjusted EPS growth enabling excellent financial performance. I look forward to updating you on our progress as we go through the year. With that I'll turn the call back over to Raph.

Operator we're ready for the Q&A portion of the call.

Thank you very much. We will now open the floor for the Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. Please ensure your device is unmuted locally. If you change your mind or your question has already been answered, please press star followed by two. In order to allow everyone in the queue an opportunity to address Thermo Fisher Management Team, please limit your time on the call to one question and only one follow-up. If you have any additional questions, please return to the queue. Our first question comes from Michael Rysken with Bank of America. Michael your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks for taking the question. I want to start with something that you flagged briefly there in your closing remarks, Stephen. I think you mentioned modest policy changes built into the guide. I just I'm wondering if you could expand on that and just broadly talk about the changes that you've seen. Guidance methodology going into 2025. Feels like there's a lot more uncertainty even despite what we're coming from the last couple years. Specifically, the policy and government changes, you know, things like tariffs, NIH, export controls announced a couple weeks ago and some specific product lines. It's still really tough and too early to say how these will play out. So I'm just wondering if you how much conservatism you build into the guide. What are your assumptions on some of these factors? Any additional color you could provide there would be helpful.

So Mike, thanks for the question. Maybe I'll start with a summary actually of kind of the key points and then I'll talk a little bit about the you know, what's going on from the policy perspective of what we embedded in the guide. Bear with me a little bit. So when I think about 2024, you know, I think the key points are the team executed very well, right? And the performance was quite differentiated financially and really great momentum with our customers. Ultimately, the trusted partner status continues to strengthen and positions the company for a bright future. Fourth quarter was strong, right? 4% organic growth, 8% growth in EPS, just EPS. Market conditions, you know, they improved sequentially throughout the year as we expected. We saw positive growth. It was our expectation for the market in the fourth quarter and which is what we thought at the beginning of last year. So the predictability is back in our industry, which is great. When I think about 2025, what we're assuming in the guidance is that the, you know, market conditions will continue to strengthen as the year progresses. And we're entering the year with good momentum, right? So our focus, especially given that there's always some level of uncertainty or volatility is to really deliver, you know, outstanding EPS growth this year, right? And what we, you know, embedded in our guidance is 6 to 8% adjusted EPS growth and our best view of the market returning positive organically in terms of total and us delivering 3 to 4%. So that's how we thought about it and you know, we're actively managing the business. So we're very excited about what's the year ahead. Now when I think about policy changes, what's embedded, I think, you know, deeply our philosophy within reason of changes or within reasons of opportunities, we just manage through it. It becomes it's our job to manage through you know, the unanticipated changes unless they're of such magnitude on the good side or the bad that we would articulate it, right? So, you know, we thought about the environment where today there's a lot of ideas being discussed but not really yet materialized into any particular policies. What I'm very excited about is the business environment, particularly in the US is, you know, is going to be much more business friendly with much more of a focus on economic growth. I'm excited that the, you know, from a M&A perspective, we're likely to see a much more reasonable environment from a regulatory perspective. And you know, when I think about what our company does and what our customers do, science and medicine are unbelievably important and they're not discretionary and therefore we're excited about it and we'll navigate whatever the environment holds.

Okay, that's helpful, Mark. Thank you. And then for a quick follow-up, in terms of the EPS guide, you're right, better earnings power than we had anticipated. I think most had anticipated. Steven, I think you said 90 basis points operating margin expansion. That's very strong, especially given the subdued top line environment. So, if you could expand on that, I mean, you mentioned some of the cost actions you've taken in the past, but are there incremental cost actions throughout 2025? What's the contribution from returns of volume growth or maybe mixed shift? Just any color on that, 90 basis points. Thanks.

Yeah, so Mike, yeah, that's the right number. And yeah, so really good volume pull through. So when I think about the cost actions we've taken over the past couple of years is we've kind of wound down from the impact of the pandemic and certain areas of our business have had lower volumes than normal, like coming back to more normal volumes and we're making sure that the incremental revenue is pulling through at a really high clip. So great to see that and that's embedded in the numbers. And then it's not just kind of huge cost initiatives, but just managing our P&L appropriately and using the PPI business system to be able to do that. So driving very strong productivity and good cost management in the top line environment that we're in for the years. So all those bring that all together. That's what's driving the 90 basis

points. Thanks, Mike. Thank you so much.

Thanks.

Our next question comes from Rachel Buttensdahl with JP Morgan. Rachel, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Perfect. Good morning and thank you so much for taking the questions. So I wanted to follow up on your answer to Mike's first question around some of the policy changes that we've seen, but specific really to NIH funding. Obviously, we've seen some of the reports the last few weeks around federal funding potentially getting frozen in light of the new administration. So appreciate that it's early days and we don't know what some of these policies could ultimately look like, but at the same time you would have to imagine that some of these headlines are driving disruption at your customers. So can you walk us through what have you seen since the new administration turnover in terms of customers behavior? Especially within that academic and government market and how are you actually expecting NIH funding to play out this year?

Yeah, so Rachel, it's been nine days. So, you know in terms of the environment, so I don't think there's any real insight into what's going on. Obviously, there's actually no policies yet, right? There are different things being explored. And you know, our job is to work collaboratively with the administration. We have a good working relationship certainly with the president's first administration and educate on the importance of our industry and our customers work and help our customers navigate the environment as well. So from my perspective, you know, I look at, we'll help our customers, you know, navigate whatever it is. When I think about what's embedded in our guidance, I would say for academic and government, globally, would be around the company average in terms of what's assumed there and maybe slightly below that because I think pharma and biotech ultimately be a little bit better than the company average this year in terms of the end markets. And you know, when you think about that, about half of our academic and government end market is in the U.S. and half is in markets around the world. Interestingly enough, we obviously had an incredibly strong finish in academic and government in the fourth quarter and it was globally strong, right? It was really every market had really, you know, a very strong end to the year. So hopefully that's helpful.

Yeah, that is. Thanks for framing that up. To follow up then, I just wanted to ask on analytical instrumentation. Obviously that was a really nice quarter in four quills. So can you walk us through some of the drivers of that beat? Did you guys see any budget flush trends in the quarter and was there any benefit from trying to stimulate in that number? And then when we look at analytical instrumentation performance for 2025, what are your assumptions regarding China stimulus contribution? Thank you.

So Rachel, thanks. You know, our instrument business once again had a really very positive year. Capped off with 8% organic growth in the fourth quarter, 3% growth for the full year. And that's an environment where China was relatively muted for the full year. And as you know, China is a meaningful contributor to the instruments business across the industry. So team really doing a great job. So what drives that? You know, it's the steady drumbeat of innovation that makes a huge difference. And if you think about even in my remarks, I had to really narrow it down, like in terms of the number of products we launched and you see one instrument after another, you see many other reagents and other products, but we are just, you know, on a roll in terms of phenomenal new products, right? Whether it's in electron microscopy, you know, whether it's in chromatography and mass spectrometry, and also in the environmental type applications, you know, with, you know, iron chromatography with, you know, ICP-MS, just really strong and the adoption is great and that's driving, you know, meaningful share gain. And, you know, the way that our business works is you have relevant innovation customers because of the importance of the work they're doing. They find the funding and that's how it showed up. In terms of stimulus in China and how we thought about it, it's actually nice to see revenue. It wasn't huge, but you know, it was nice to see revenue flow in the instruments business in the fourth quarter. Orders were actually stronger in terms of the orders that we received in China on our instruments and that, you know, obviously ship in 2025. So stimulus started to flow there as well. So hopefully it gives you a good sense of the momentum in our instruments business.

Our next question comes from Jack Meehan with Nephron Research. Jack, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Thank you and good morning. So Stephen, you talked about the phasing of morning. I forget if it was Stephen or Mark. You talked about the phasing of services revenue during the year. So I'll bite. What does the guide assume for PPD clinical research? And can you give us an update, just color on what you're seeing in terms of new authorizations?

Yeah, so I'll give the kind of the the phasing aspect to it and Mark will give you some more detail about the businesses. So, which are both in great shape by the way. So when I think about phasing within the year, I said that in Q1 there's some timing in the phasing there. It's largely the pandemic related runoff is more pronounced in Q1 given the comps from last year. So that's the largest piece of phasing. There's a little bit of phasing quarter to quarter in terms of the overall phasing for our pharma services business. That's kind of a normal noise. But that's probably the largest driver that I talked about in Q1.

Yeah. So Jack, when I think about the clinical research capabilities that we have, you know, we're a leader and incredible reputation for innovation and quality and performance for our customers. And when you think about that, one of the things that we've been talking a little bit about, and I try to highlight it more today, was the combination with our pharma services business. And as you know, in pharma services, you know, we're a leading provider of contract development and manufacturing capabilities. We spent over three years looking at the added value of having those both sets of capabilities, the insights you get, and the impact that you can have for the customers. And you know, when we launched Accelerator drug development, it really is compelling. And what that really is allowing our customers to do is to leverage our expertise and capabilities to improve the returns on investment of their R&D investments, which is everything in the pharmaceutical and biotech industry. So we're excited. When I think about now more of the details, and I think about clinical research, you know, we delivered low single digit organic growth last year, right? The team did a good job, really good job. And that was to basically grow the business despite the very meaningful headwind from the runoff of vaccines and therapies that was in that business. And when I think to the future about 2025, you know, the business is behaving the way that I would think it should, which it's a long cycle business. So you saw for the industry, I mean even with us in low single digit growth last year, that's below the trend line. The trend line for this business is a high single digit growth business. It's the result of 2023's biotech environment and 2023 and 2024's pharmaceutical customers actually reprioritizing their portfolios for the IRA. When I look at authorizations, particularly in the back half of 2024, they were very strong for us. And when I look at the commercial pipeline that we have this year, and the conversations that our executive team is having with our customers, the business actually has a lot of momentum underlying. And if I think about sort of the cycle time of the business, that bodes well towards the end of the year and then during 2026. It feels like, you know, the conditions will be more measured this year. That's what's embedded in our guidance, kind of similar to what we saw last year. And then you know, it sets up for great success. So, you know, overall, you know, super positive.

Awesome. And you're leading me exactly where I want to go next, which is the guide for 2026. Mostly joking, but can you just talk about, you know, as you look at the phasing of the guide in 2025, what does the exit rate look like in the fourth quarter? And just more broadly, just like confidence about your ability to get back to the LRP targets that you have.

Yeah, Jack, I'd be thrilled to talk about 2026 on this call in a year's time. But I understand that you think about that and how you're thinking about the trajectory of the company. Yeah, first of all, we're highly confident we're going to get back to the industry long-term market growth rate of four to six percent. It's just a matter of what's the timing you actually get to that point. And we've proven the ability to consistently drive share gain above that. So our organic growth will be stronger than markets. And it's great that markets are improving. When I think about what the guide setup is here, going from market down a couple of points to being up slightly, that's a continued improvement. And we expect that, as I said in my preparatory marks, we expect that to continue to increase as we go through the year. The exact ending point of where market growth will be at the end of the year. We'll see that as we get close towards the end of the year. And as Mark said at the beginning, our job in this period of going through that transition back to normal is to drive really strong adjusted EPS growth. And that's exactly what we're we're setting out to do here for the year ahead.

Awesome.

Thanks, Jack. Thanks, Jack. See you.

Our next question comes from Doug Shenco with Wolf Research. Doug, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Doug, are you on mute?

Good morning, guys. Sorry about that. Thanks for taking my questions. A couple questions on guidance. So the first is on the top line and I'm just sitting here playing with the model of thinking through the stacks, thinking through the comps, thinking about what you talked about for the first quarter starting rate. That leads me to a question of are you expecting to exit 2025 back in your targeted 7 to 9% organic growth range? I can see where you're at least close to the low end of that. So that's my first question. My second is back to the topic of the 90 basis point of targeted operating margin expansion that is embedded in your guidance. This would be particularly impressive in any period. It's especially notable right now, given your revenue growth rate for the year is below your long-term construct. There has been speculation that you wouldn't be able to get anywhere close to that type of margin expansion with the lower level of growth. So obviously you expect to do that. So the questions are one, what's allowing you to do this in 2025? Is this a function of mix? Is it a function of basically the benefit of operating really tightly in a tough environment and starting to come out of it? Is it something else? And then I guess the other part of that is, are there reasons we shouldn't assume a continuation of this type of margin potential as we think about future years where you are getting back into your normalized growth construct? Thank you.

So thanks for the question. So let me start with context. So if I think about the many interactions that I have with investors over many years, but certainly over let's say the last six, nine months. A lot of the investors have been focused on, and certainly the analyst community as well, of what's the momentary change in the trajectory of the growth rate of the industry. And we understand why, because it's an amazing industry with an incredible future, and we're in a recovering environment. And one of the things as a management team, as you know, we're very focused on great performance and great execution, is what's going to be most helpful to our shareholders in creating value and creating a bright future. And we're in a recovering market and we're expecting a better year in terms of market environment, better year in organic growth this year. But the thing that we can control is how great is our earnings per share. And that's to the power of our PPI business system, strong execution, cost discipline, it's not a mixed drive or any of those things. As a leadership team, what we're focused on is delivering another very differentiated year and fully focused on the thing that we can control, which is how we drive from revenue down to the bottom line. So it's not the long-term new number, right, but it's the right number for 2025. I think the 40 to 50 basis points of long-term expansion associated with seven to nine percent is an appropriate driver, but this year that's the way I would think about it. In terms of the three to four percent, one thing that we also just remind ourselves, there's a point of headwind in that number for the final runoff of the pandemic. So our assumption is effectively zero pandemic revenue related this year, you know, revenue this year. So you can say the normalized growth is getting back to stronger growth, but it's not yet at seven to nine, right? You can do the phasing if you're assuming, as Stephen has laid out, a flat start to the year and we understand that's clearly why. It's not about a marketing, it's kind of the phasing of days and how we see the service revenue specifically laying out. You're going to wind up with something in the, you know, strong mid-single digits at the end of the year for us, right? And you can say, well, there's a point of headwind, so you're not quite at the seven to nine, but you're progressing in the direction that would be encouraging. And we're excited for this year, like this is a big step up in expectations and we're going to deliver it versus last year. And the quarter after quarter of just better market conditions sets us up for an incredible future.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tycho Peterson with Jeffreys. Tycho, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Okay, thanks. Mark, I want to probe a little more on the accelerator program and really just try to understand, you know, why now is the right time. Synergies for PPD have gone well. So any kind of bogey you can point to in the next couple years in terms of how you're thinking about synergies? Is this more for a sort of a small or large customers, more on the CDMO side or CRO side? And has this brought to light any additional kind of service offerings that you might need to bring to these customers?

So Tycho, thanks for the question. One thing that I've learned and is held deeply ingrained with our customer base is you don't make promises that you don't have 100% confidence that you are going to be able to deliver. That's what our customers expect of us. So if you remember back to the announcement of the acquisition of PPD, we talked about the potential to bend the time and cost curve of developing medicines. That was a strategy that we articulated. And then you haven't heard us talk about it really at all for the last three years. Not because we weren't working on it, but because we wouldn't declare that opportunity until we had the proof cases in place, customers actually leveraging the combined capabilities of the company, and the confidence that we can have great conversations with our customers to continue to deliver great results for them. The authorizations momentum is very strong in terms of how our customers perceive our capabilities and performance. And customers can pick and choose, it's not that they have to buy everything, but rather they can pick the relevant insights from us and the relevant expertise to shave the weeks and months off of the timelines to be more cost effective and leverage our expertise. And the excitement is very substantial. When I think about, you know, we're seeing interest and excitement and authorizations and orders, orders being on the services language. What we're seeing it is it's faster in biotech because you have a decision maker that sort of has the whole domain, but we're seeing great interest in large farmers as well. And with large farmer, you typically will pick a molecule, a part of their pipeline and work that way. In biotech, you typically will work across everything they're doing. So that's exciting times we're just getting going. So as you know, these are long cycle businesses, so it takes some time to actually translate the authorizations and orders into revenue, but it bodes really well for the acceleration of growth, certainly in 26 and beyond.

Great. And then follow up on China. I didn't actually hear what you're assuming for China growth this year, and you're assuming your products come off the trade restrictions list. I think last time you were able to get them off. And then I know you don't have much exposure to volume based procurement, but how are you thinking about exposure there? And obviously the headwinds have magnified.

Yeah. So in terms of China, when I think about the year, first of all, 24, and that's a reasonable framing for the next year, we really had a very strong year and a very, very challenged environment. The economy is challenging, the end market is challenged. Our business in the low single digits for the full year, and clearly gaining market share. So the team's done a good job. Our expectation is that the environment is similar to what we saw last year. Stimulus will be a benefit. And there'll be just, we're not assuming any recovery from an economic perspective. And that may change, that may be a bad assumption, but we don't see any evidence yet of a real strengthening environment other than stimulus. So we just assume that the conditions will continue to be somewhat muted and similar to last year. In terms of healthcare value based procurement and some of the reimbursement things that have been executed, your framing is exactly right, which is very small for us. And because our diagnostic business in China is very much in the specialty area, it's not a large business. And while there's a little bit of a headwind, it's fully embedded in our guidance and it's not a meaningful number. And so that's how we left it.

Operator, we have time for one more question.

Yeah, certainly. Our next question is from Paneet Soda with Learing Partners. Paneet, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Yeah, hi Mark. Thanks for taking my question. I'll wrap my question in one. On the biopharma side and the biotech side, could you elaborate what you're hearing from your larger biopharma large cap customers versus the early emerging biotechs? And another brief question on the therapeutic side. Mark, about 75% of the IND filings to the FDA in 2024 are molecules from China or assets from China. And that number used to be very small in 23 and practically nothing in 2019. So my question is if more of the drug discovery pivots to China, how do you think thermo is positioned? What are the implications for thermo and for the tools industry overall, if you could? Thank you.

Yeah, so for me, thanks for the question. So what I love about January is many things I love about January, but is I get to spend an enormous time with our customers, right? Both out on the West Coast where many convene, as well as in Europe. So I've seen quite a number of customers. And if I say, what are the themes, if I start with the larger customers, the larger biopharma, really a real change in confidence, like really quite positive in terms of how they enter the year, feeling like the actions that they've taken over the last couple of years have put their companies in a good spot. Obviously, companies are benefiting hugely from the GLP ones and this great confidence there, obviously, for the impact. And that excites everybody in terms of the ability to have very relevant medicines that can get adopted quickly and help human health. And so actually, it feels to me that large pharma is meaningfully in a better mind space, which will help over time grow budgets. And when I think about the more of emerging customers, actually, that also was positive, right? And there seems to be a reasonable confidence on funding and partnerships to allow for funding to continue to improve as the year unfolds and still recovering, but certainly better. In terms of where innovation is, I think ultimately what you're seeing as a few years back, it became really very difficult for a China based company to serve the global market. You're seeing more licensing deals. There's a huge amount of work that happens in the Western labs after things are licensed. So we're well positioned in China, but we're obviously well positioned globally. So thank you for the question. Let me wrap up with a couple of quick things. First of all, thanks everyone for participating in the call today. We enter this year with strong momentum and we're in a great position to deliver an excellent 2025. As always, thank you for your support of Thermo Fisher Scientific and we look forward to updating you as the year progresses. Thanks everyone.

Thank you very much everyone for joining us. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.