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Travel Leisure Co.
7/23/2025
Greetings, and welcome to the Traveler Leisure second quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. You may be placed into question queue at any time by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. We ask that you please ask one question and one follow-up, then return to the queue. If anyone would require operator assistance, please press star 0 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Eric Hoke, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, Kevin. Good morning to everyone. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions today will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and the forward-looking statements made today are effective only as of today. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements. The factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in our SEC filings and in our press release accompanying the earnings call. You can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in the earnings press release available on the Investor Relations website. This morning, Michael Brown, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the second quarter results and our longer-term growth strategy. And then I'll provide greater detail on the quarter, our balance sheet, and outlook for the rest of the year. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open up the call for questions. Finally, all comparisons today are to the same period of the prior year, unless specifically stated. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Michael Brown. Good morning, and thanks for joining us.
Travel and Leisure delivered another solid quarter of revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. Our strong adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow allowed us to return $107 million of capital to shareholders in the quarter. This performance underscores the strength of our brands, the resilience of leisure travel and our owner base, and the disciplined execution of our strategy. Against the dynamic macroeconomic backdrop, our teams remain focused on driving growth, managing costs, and delivering exceptional experiences to our owners, members, and guests. In the quarter, we generated over $1 billion in revenue, $250 million in adjusted EBITDA, and $1.65 in adjusted earnings per share, all of year over year. Our results were driven by continued strength in our vacation ownership business, which more than offset softer performance and travel to membership. We saw healthy year-over-year growth in VOI sales with gains in both tour flow and volume per guest. Notably, volume per guest of $3,251 was above the high end of our guidance range and adjusted EBITDA margin remained consistent with the prior year at 25%. These results support the core foundation of our business, a resilient customer base built around leisure travel, a compelling value proposition, and consistent returns to our shareholders. Demand remains strong across our core timeshare business. We see encouraging engagement from consumers as tour growth improved sequentially from the first quarter and 3% compared to 2024. The resilience of our platform is directly related to the quality of our customers. There's been plenty of noise around the economy, but from where we sit, our consumers are healthy and prioritizing travel. Spending on leisure travel is expected to grow mid-single digits per year over the next five years. Our business is built on recurring behavior and less so on short-term trends, making us less sensitive to the macro economy as we benefit from a highly visible recurring revenue base. More than 75% of our revenue is tied to predictable sources like owner upgrades, financing, and management fees, which leads to a nearly $20 billion pipeline of future potential revenue over 10 years. We see our strategy play out through our bookings, sales tours, and owner engagement metrics. Our owners are traveling, supporting what we've long believed, that vacations are not discretionary, they're essential. we have seen no significant change in buyer behavior related to booking pace, BPG, and portfolio performance. Booking pace is relatively consistent to the prior year, and with a 109-day average booking window, we have clear visibility into the remainder of the year. BPG performance continues to be strong, and our portfolio remains stable. Our owners know what they are getting, They've already planned for it, and 80% of them have fully paid for their ownership. Today, we serve more than 800,000 owner families with an average tenure of 17 years. Here are some key characteristics of our owner base. The average household income for our owners is approximately $118,000. The average FICO score of our $3 billion portfolio is above 720. Since 2020, we have seen sub 640 FICO loans decline four points as a percentage of the overall portfolio. The average FICO score of new originations is 746. This is an over 20 point increase since we updated our credit quality standards. Our owners take an average of four to five vacations annually with more than 50% of their vacation time being utilized through their ownership. We are seeing consistent interest from younger generations with over 65% of new buyers coming from Gen X, Millennial, and Gen Z households. Our product delivers exactly what these new owners want, flexibility, convenience, and personalized experiences. During the quarter, we continue to invest in technology, marketing, and product innovation to enhance the customer journey and extend our reach. Our Club Wyndham app, which offers frictionless engagement, now has 162,000 downloads and accounts for 19% of bookings. Additionally, we are preparing for the launch of our WorldMark app in Q4. We are progressing with investments in AI on our web and app channels, driving recommendations for personalized experiences and seamless booking process. During the quarter, we announced an exclusive marketing partnership with Hornblower, focused on creating memorable experiences for our owners, as well as new owner tour generation. Hornblower Group is an experience-based tourism leader across 22 destinations in the United States, Canada, and the UK. Looking ahead, we are focused on growing the core vacation ownership business leveraging data and technology to enhance the customer experience across all platforms. We are taking targeted revenue and cost actions to mitigate the headwinds in our travel and membership segment, leaving us well-positioned to deliver sustainable growth and consistent returns. Now turning to execution on our multi-brand strategy. This strategy is not just about scale, it's about customer segment. It's about both customer segment and geographic expansion. Our Club Wyndham and Walmart brands will continue to be the cornerstone of our vacation ownership business, along with our Blue Thread partnership with Wyndham Hotels. In June, we expanded our Margaritaville footprint with a new sales location in Nashville on Broadway and a new marketing channel on the Margaritaville cruise ship. We launched and expanded the Accor Vacation Club with the formation of a new Asia-based club. The first resort is the Novatel Nusa Dua in Indonesia. And last week, we announced our newest Sports Illustrated Resort's location in Nashville, Tennessee. Located on Music Row in the heart of Midtown, just one mile from downtown, the planned resort will feature 185 units, and is expected to open in the spring of 2026. These new brands will help us expand into key markets, reach new audiences, and offer experiences suited to their lifestyles. Our strong free cash flow allows us to invest in the right places, brand, digital, and targeted inventory. We are confident these investments will continue to drive value Alongside these investments, we continue to consistently return capital to our shareholders through our dividend and share repurchase program. Since then, we have returned $2.7 billion to shareholders. Before I hand it over, I'd like to take a moment to welcome Eric Hogue, our new Chief Financial Officer. Eric brings a strong background in strategy, operational finance, and capital allocations. Eric has hit the ground running since he joined the company. In his first two months, he has attended five conferences and met with 49 investors over 27 meetings. I'm confident his leadership will help us continue delivering disciplined execution and long-term value for our shareholders. With that, I'll hand it over to Eric to walk through our financial performance and capital allocation in more detail. Eric?
Thanks, Michael, and good morning. Let me start by saying how excited I am to be part of Travel and Leisure. This is a company with a strong leadership team, a highly recognizable brand portfolio, and a resilient business model that delivers dependable cash flow and long-term value creation. In my first few months, I've been especially impressed by the financial discipline and operational focus embedded across the organization. This came through clearly in our second quarter results. with strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, alongside robust adjusted free cash flow. I'll walk through the quarter's key drivers and highlight how we're deploying capital to drive shareholder value. Revenue for the quarter was $1.02 billion, up 3% year over year, driven by strong VOI volume and VPGs that exceeded our expectation. Adjusted EBITDA was $250 million, up 2% over the prior year and at the midpoint of our guidance range. This translates to a 4% adjusted EBITDA growth for the first half of the year. Adjusted earnings per share grew 9% in the quarter, driven by strong performance in vacation ownership and the benefit from ongoing share repurchases. Turning to the vacation ownership segment, our core growth engine. The business delivered accelerating revenue, rising tour flow, historically high VPGs, and double-digit growth in average transaction size. Revenue grew 6% to $853 million for the quarter, driven by a 3% increase in tours and VPG of $3,251, up 7% from last year. The increase in average transaction size reflects strong consumer demand effective upsell strategies, and continued Salesforce productivity across our resorts. Adjusted EBITDA grew 6%, with margin performance remaining steady, underscoring the health and the consistency of the platform. We are also making disciplined progress with our inventory pipeline, with several key resort projects underway to support future growth while maintaining our capital light mix. Our loan loss provision and delinquencies were in line with expectations and we remain on track to deliver a full year provision of 21%. Credit quality remains strong in the quarter with new origination FICO scores above 740, which reflects our consistent and disciplined underwriting approach. Our second quarter delinquency trends moderated after the uptick we noted last quarter. With no signs of material deterioration, we're confident in the portfolio's strength. Our provision has historically ranged from the high teens to the low 20s as a percentage of VOI sales, and we see potential for this to trend below 20% over time, enhancing capital efficiency and supporting durable free cash flow. In our travel and membership segment, revenue was $166 million for the quarter, down 6% year over year. and adjusted EBITDA declined 11% to $55 million. The exchange business continues to face industry consolidation headwinds. Additionally, recent M&A activity disrupted transaction volumes from certain affiliates and was not anticipated in our original guidance. While not the sole driver of the underperformance, the impact was meaningful, and we remain focused on maximizing cash flow and operational flexibility with an emphasis on long-term shareholder value. Turning to cash generation and capital deployment, we generated $123 million in adjusted free cash flow and $353 million in operating cash flow in the first six months of the year, supported by strong sales efficiency, capital-efficient sales execution, and the ongoing contribution of our consumer finance portfolio. These factors, alongside both our highly recurring revenue mix and capital life development strategy, drive consistent and dependable cash generation, even in a complex macroeconomic and political environment. During the quarter, we returned $107 million of our adjusted free cash flow to shareholders, $37 million through dividends, and $70 million in share repurchases, retiring more than 2% of our shares outstanding in the quarter. Our capital allocation strategy remains unchanged. Reinvest in high return growth, maintain a resilient balance sheet, and return excess cash to shareholders, all while preserving financial flexibility. We continue to evaluate reinvestment returns vigorously, prioritizing initiatives where we see strong IRRs, capital efficiency, and clear pathways to shareholder value. Our liquidity position remains strong. We ended the quarter with over $800 million, including $212 million of cash and cash equivalents, and $596 million available on our revolver. We ended the quarter at 3.4 times levered, and with normal seasonality, we expect our leverage rate to slightly increase in the third quarter and then end the year below 3.4 times. During the quarter, we amended our $1 billion revolving credit facility with improved terms. And yesterday, we completed our second ABS transaction of the year, raising $300 million at a 98% advance rate and a 5.1% coupon, the lowest we've seen since 2022. We continue to actively manage maturities and expect to refinance the $350 million note coming due in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead, we continue to expect full-year adjusted EBITDA to be in line with our prior guidance, supported by the strength of our vacation ownership business. We expect travel and membership to remain challenged through year end. That said, we're committed to executing on our core business, launching new brands, delivering strong free cash flow, and allocating capital in ways that enhance shareholder value. For the third quarter, we expect travel and leisure adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $250 to $260 million. Vacation ownership gross VOI sales are expected to be in the range of $650 to $680 million with VPGs in the range of $3,200 to $3,250. For the full year, we continue to expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $955 to $985 million gross VOI sales between $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion, and VPGs in the range of $3,200 to $3,250, an increase from our prior range of $3,050 to $3,150. Please refer to our earnings material for full details and underlying assumptions by segment. Thank you for your time and continued interest in travel and leisure. I look forward to connecting with many of you in the weeks ahead. Kevin, we can now open the line for questions.
Certainly. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to be placed in the question queue, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. And as a reminder, please ask one question and one follow-up, then return to the queue. Our first question is coming from Chris Waranka from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now live.
Hey, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Eric, welcome. We're looking forward to working with you. So I guess, you know, Michael, maybe start with the kind of the more obvious question this corner on the travel and membership side. I know you mentioned that, you know, there was some M&A impact with partnerships, but, you know, do you feel like visibility for that segment is declining? It used to be very stable and predictable within a million bucks or so. And, you know, if so, how confident are you that you can turn this around or are you in some ways possibly considering something more strategic with that segment? Thanks.
Good morning, Chris. Well, let me recap Q1, the first half of the year. So we recognize the two components of the travel membership decline. In the organic side of the business, yes, we saw a decline as it relates to exchange transactions a conversation we've been having on this call for several years now. That side of the business remains challenged through consolidation and the fact that the way bigger clubs are doing business has changed. And we've done a pretty significant job over the last few years stemming the tide of that. In fact, if you remember last year, we actually had growth in this segment. Over 50% of the decline in the first half of the year was based off this component of the business. The other piece, which Eric mentioned, was there was consolidation in the space, and that impacted those related to affiliates of ours, and that obviously was an unforecasted impact in the first half of this year. As we digest that and look at new alternatives on how to – address and mitigate the impact of A, that transaction, but B, just the general trend of what's happening on external exchange transactions. There's a number of measures we continue to take. We want to grow the Travel Club business, which grew 7% in Q2 as far as transactions. We continue to look at innovative ways to deploy our inventory and to grow revenue on that side of the equation, and then obviously we manage costs associated with where our top line goes. I think we've been very clear that we understand the structural challenges of the space, but we've been very proactive over the past few years, and we will continue to look at smart strategic investments or alternatives to make sure that we're doing the right thing for this business and creating, you know, objectives to get back to a growth trajectory over time here.
Okay. Thanks. Thanks, Michael. Just as a follow-up, you know, I think you mentioned a double-digit increase in the average size of transactions in the quarter. The question on that is kind of in the context of financing and, you know, how does that play into it when you think about transactions getting bigger, propensity to finance in the context of, a lot of wealth effect that's being generated with the stock market and maybe other forms of real estate. Does that change the calculus at all for your, I guess, your average customer in terms of that propensity to finance or, you know, what's driving that larger transaction size? Thanks.
Well, we haven't really seen any change to our propensity to finance. Those statistics are very consistent. I think what you've seen in the first or the second quarter is And the reference was really a combination of two components. First is we continue to take measured price increases over time, and that results in some component of the average transaction price increasing. The other piece is – and we mentioned it a number of times in our prepared remarks related to experiences and – greater owner engagement. We're starting to see, we believe, some of those elements come into play in the fact that people continue to buy more. Four to five vacations a year through their ownership with us, about 50% of their vacation time being dedicated to us at Wyndham. That means people are buying more, and that's only because they're satisfied and They're enjoying their ownership. So I think it's a combination. It is a combination of price increases and people just continuing to be loyal and committed to this type of leisure travel.
Okay. Very good. Thanks, Michael.
Thank you. Next question today is coming from Lizzie Dove from Goldman Sachs. Her line is now live.
Hi there. Thanks for taking the question. First one, you raised the VPG guidance, the obviously really strong number in 2Q, but you didn't take up the gross VOI sales number. Is the assumption that maybe tour growth is a little low or something? I know telesales was a little lower in 2Q than expected. Just curious what factored into that.
Really, the factor is we wanted to recognize the very strong PPG performance in the first half of the year, and that led to our raise for the full year. I think what that really says, Lizzie, is that we have greater confidence that our gross VOI is going to be at the mid to maybe the top end of that range. At this point, being halfway through the year, knowing that we're entering July being one of the biggest months of the year, and same with August with summer travel, we thought we were better off to simply be more confident in the top half of the range at this point. We'll see where we are at Q3, but at the end of Q3. But what I would say is both tours being up 3%, In Q2, 2% for the first half. That's showing sequential acceleration. We were quite pleased with our Q2 tour performance, and we think that tour increase will continue in the second half. And obviously our BPG raise of guidance reflects what we're already seeing in that we don't see the consumer weakening in the second half of the year.
Got it. And then on the delinquency side, I think last quarter you'd said you know, March ticked up a little bit, but then you saw an improvement in April. Curious how that's been tracking over the last few months and into July. And, you know, you mentioned there's maybe some opportunity for the provision to kind of trend below 20% over time. Just curious, this kind of steps to get that timing be helpful to know. Thanks.
Yeah. Hey, Lizzie, it's Eric Hogue. You are right. So early in the year, we saw elevated delinquencies in the first quarter. However, they did moderate near the end of the first quarter, and we saw that moderation persist through the second quarter. And frankly, we've seen that moderation persist through the first half of July as well. So we have got a full year provision of 21%. We feel like we are in a good spot with that 21% provision. In terms of the longer range comments associated with getting back into the teens from a provision perspective, there's a couple things that I would say about that. We've got discipline underwriting quality with FICO scores above 740, and we consistently have seen improvement associated with the credit quality that's coming through the front door. And then the second piece is the adoption of our app. As we continue to focus on the usability of our products, the adoption increase that we're seeing from our customers, making it easier for customers to actually get on to vacation. And maybe one other comment associated with the provision 60 days in. You know, one of the meaningful ahas that I've had, Lizzie, coming into the seat is that, and Mike mentioned, I've had roughly 50 investor conferences or touch points in the last two months. We've got a really robust, efficient, and effective inventory recovery process. So as delinquencies occur, we have a way to get the inventory back. We're able to reprice the inventory. We reprice the inventory at favorable rates with a cost-to-sales rate that's under 10%. Very effective way for us to get that back.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is coming from Patrick Schultz from Truett Securities. Your line is now live.
Hi. Good morning. Thank you. Welcome, Eric. Hey, Patrick. Great. Michael, I'll start out with a question for you. You touched briefly about the health of your consumer. I wonder if you can dig down a little bit more. You talked about average household income about 120, but I'm sure within the average you probably have some, say, 80,000 and some 150,000 and above. Talk about sort of at the various ends of the spectrum, what are the behaviors and propensities, strengths and weaknesses, any noticeable differences between the lower end and the upper end within your customer network and potential customer network? Thank you.
Absolutely. Good morning, Patrick. I'll hit this a few different ways. And I think most simply, we get a good read on performance of our household incomes via FICO's and through our default curves. And it's one of the reasons that as we came out of COVID, we thought the most efficient way to reestablish our foundation was by raising our FICO's to 640. That move, as you heard, has brought our average FICOS up to 746. And there's clear stratification with higher performance at the higher household incomes and clearly higher delinquencies on the lower end. I think, interestingly enough, there's an odd phenomenon there, one maybe not so odd, is that the higher the income, the more likely there is for prepayment of the loans. So there's always this sort of balance of you love the higher FICO sales and you definitely want people to pay off and get using their ownership, but you do have a drop off with the higher FICOs in the first year of ownership. Let me hit it the second way of really how I look at it is the bifurcation between owners and new owners. You know, in an economy like this with uncertainty and if the economy accelerates or decelerates, the first place you tend to see that is on the new owner side. As we talked about in our prepared remarks, the first half of the year was super strong for our owner base, high engagement, value what they own, continue to buy more at very high rates. Our new owner business continues to be strong as well. We were very pleased with our floor flow. But I think specifically related to your question, when we look back to pre-COVID 2019, our close rates, our VPGs, and our transaction size, all related to new owners, are meaningfully up from pre-COVID. And that's really a reflection to your question about the performance of all strata of household incomes and looking at a different perspective of new owners and owners. Because I think most people are looking for weakness to show up in our new owner segment as a sign that the economy is weakening. And we can say after the first six months that that's not the case.
Great. Thank you. And then I do have a follow-up question for Eric. Eric, with the BPG expectation going up, What are your expectations for the buyer mix in that expectations for closing rates versus your prior guidance for VPG? And I think on last earnings call, you had expected the new owner mix, or Mike Hugg had expected new owner mix still to be around 35%. Thank you.
So we do expect in our financial forecast to see acceleration of the new owner mix. So the long-range target remains 35% from a new owner mix perspective. We sat at 30% here in the second quarter. Our forecast does expect some improvement in that in the back half of the year.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question today is coming from Steven Grambling from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now live.
Hey, thanks for taking the question. Just to follow up on the new owner mix improvement, I guess, are there any things that you're doing and that you're thinking about to help drive some of the incremental new owners or anything that you're thinking about in terms of trying to improve the conversion rate on new owners as we think about initiatives going into the back half of this year or even into next year?
Yeah, so just to add on to what Eric was saying was we've always communicated this percentage, and I just want to make sure everyone's got the context of it. We had an incredible first half of the year on our owner side of the business, which is naturally going to push down our percentage of new owner percentage. We had a really good first half of the year as it relates to new owner business. It just happens when you're performing so well on the owner side, you know, our target at 35% naturally, it's further away from 35%. we're going to continue to get to. Our long-term target, our short-term target is 35%. And if quarter by quarter we have strength in one segment, it'll fluctuate. Remember, I believe it was first quarter last year, maybe it was second, that we were at 38%, 37%. And that was just a quarter. So related to some things we're doing as it relates to driving new owners, there's a lot feathered throughout the script related to that. But I really want to focus on, number one, we continue to focus on getting the right partners. We were pleased with the announcement in Q2 of one such partner in Hornblower. We also believe that the addition of these new brands, Margaritaville, which we're reinvigorating, up double digits in sales year on year. The addition of Accor, up double digits in sales year on year. Sports Illustrated, launching new sales later in the year. All of these are going to be bringing new owners to our overall ecosystem and And lastly, just in addition to all of that, we have six regions, and each single one of them is out doing smaller partnerships in their region that are more pertinent to their region. And all that put together, I do just want to put a stamp on, I think you mentioned something about performance in new owners. I think our close rates are up roughly 11 percentage points. from pre-COVID level. So our teams are performing well above where they were pre-COVID, and I think it's a combination of having a great team, very focused on execution and raising our marketing standards.
That's great. I'll leave it there. Thank you. Thanks, Stephen. Thank you.
Thank you. As a reminder, that's star one to be placed in the question queue. Our next question is coming from David Katz from Jefferies. Your line is now live.
Hi, morning, everybody. Thanks for all the commentary so far. You know, I noticed that, you know, the Accor brand seems to be more of an international play. And I wonder if you could give us some updated thoughts on what you think the international opportunity or TAM, you know, really is. And, you know, what point does it become, you know, you know, an increasingly meaningful driver of the enterprise in total?
Well, there's two sides to that story. First of all, Accor is, if my stats are right, the largest international operator of hospitality, you know, outside the United States. The brand's powerful. It's impactful. It's got a multitude of brands, and its TAM is on par with the best hospitality companies and the largest hospitality companies in the world. That's all the positive. And the second, if I could add a second positive, is the integration with their teams in the Asia Pacific region and considerations in other regions has been superb, super supportive to help us grow, and that's meaningful in the assistance of growth, which has led us to announcing our first resort since having the brand about 14 months after the acquisition. The flip side of that coin is timeshare is by far globally strongest in the United States. We've got an accepted product in Um, after 30 years of operation, the industry's evolved to be primarily hospitality branded companies. People are highly loyal to Wyndham, to Hilton, to Marriott, to Disney, to Holiday Inn, just to name a few at, at our Margaritaville brand. And the industry is over 80% hospitality branded. The regulatory environment protects consumers and gives them avenues, uh, for their ownership and comfort that their purchase is protected. So we remain super bullish about the U.S. market. We remain super bullish about our Wyndham brand. We have incremental opportunity outside the U.S. with Accor. And we view most of these new brands, whether it's Accor, Sports Illustrated, and you go down the line to be sort of $200 million to $400 million of sales brands. but you stack four or five of those together and you can start to look at a growth trajectory over five to seven years that allows for us to maintain our current growth rate over time.
Understood. And just to follow that up, when we think about international sales, maybe a dollar of sales or $100 of sales, it Should we think about the economic intensity in terms of what you earn being similar, better, worse than what you have here in the U.S.?
I would expect it to be similar as far as profitability margins. I would also expect it to be similar three years from now what it is today as far as a mix. We do about 90% of our revenue in the U.S. and about 10% internationally. So I wouldn't expect any significant trajectory or incremental risk for currency fluctuation as a result of our expansion. You know, our objective, back to Stephen's question and tying in yours, is we want to look for new customers geographically, database-wise, and if CORE provides us both those avenues.
Thank you very much. Thanks, David.
Your next question today is coming from Ben Chacon from Mizzou. Hold your line. It's not live.
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Good morning, Eric. Maybe just to start off, as you think about the remainder of the year, can you help remind us the different variables influencing the back half? If I'm not mistaken, I believe you begin selling SI in 3Q or 4Q. Maybe help us with the timing and magnitude of that and any other considerations. I guess the premise of the question is I think prior to today there was an implied acceleration in contract sales in the back half, and I just want to maybe dive into what those considerations are. Thanks. And then one follow-up.
Of course, Ben, and the implication that you're reading through is correct. The anticipation on the back half of the year is that we would be lapping tough comps in the first half of the year on tour flow. So year-on-year tour flow increases in the latter half of this year. You combine that acceleration to an increase of BPG guidance, Diving back into Lizzie's question there is that you start to see a lot more confidence on the high end of the VOI range, which in turn gives us confidence that continued softness on the travel and membership segment can be covered, ultimately leading us to confirmation of our guidance range on adjusted EBITDA. So you should expect to see continued strength on the VOI side. covering off any weakness we see on the travel and membership side. And albeit only three weeks into July, I think it's safe to say that the trends that we've seen in Q2 on consumer resilience, key KPIs that led to a good Q2, portfolio performance, VPG, booking patterns, trends we saw in travel and membership, all of those have remained consistent in the first three weeks of July. A reminder, our largest month of the year, those trends are consistent that we saw on Q2.
Got it. And then anything from just to touch on SI, doesn't that start to hit in 2025 as well, helping you out in the back half?
Yes and no. Yes, we will open in the spring of 2026. We expect to start sales at the end of 2025 so we can – Pun intended, put our first points on the board. But as far as meaningful, bottom line, not at all. You know, continuing to grow a core this year, continuing to grow Margaritaville and continue excellent execution of Club Wyndham will be the determinant of how we end the year and where in our guidance range we'll finish.
Understood. And then for my follow-up, maybe just stepping back a little bit on some of these new projects. Maybe you could help us understand the importance and why you're excited about the new Margaritaville in Orlando opening in 27, as well as the SI in Nashville, whether it's strategically or geographically, why it's important to the network. Thanks.
Ultimately, I zoom way out and just look at how hospitality is transitioning where people are attaching their individual lifestyle to the way they want to spend their leisure time. I think I don't know exactly the year. I probably should. But Margaritaville was a song and a drink, you know, a decade ago. And today it's a hospitality company with dozens of hotels, you know. Why? Because people love to listen to music and have a drink in their hand on the beach. And leisure travel has become an expression of that lifestyle. And you transition that across to Sports Illustrated and the the affiliation excitement and passion people have for college sports. And we're simply meeting consumers where they are today. And most importantly for our business, especially being direct marketing, is we need to constantly be finding incremental databases, incremental addressable markets that we can't reach otherwise. And that's why we have aspirations on each of these not to become the behemoth that Wyndham is today, which will continue to grow. That's where our strength is. But adding $200 million to $400 million of sales with an individual brand that has a unique database that we otherwise wouldn't reach, that's why I'm excited. And a year ago, we shared with you our aspirations. It's a year later. I mentioned in one of my last answers, we're double-digit growth in Margaritaville. We're double-digit growth in Accor. And with Sports Illustrated coming, you know, those are all going to have to have outsized growth to our total VOI sales projections that we have today.
Got it. Appreciate it. Thanks, Ben.
Thank you. Next question is coming from Brant Montour from Barclays. Your line is now live.
Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. So just a more nuanced version of a question you heard earlier about the 2Q and the new owner sales. I think when we went back, if we go back to March, April, when you were exiting the first quarter, you highlighted slightly softening, I don't want to put words in your mouth, new owner sales trend. It sounds like it came out pretty well for you and those sort of held up in the 2Q. But with the sort of lowering in the mix in the 2Q, I wonder, and the question is, you guys have levers, right, in terms of what kind of tour flow you want, new owner versus repeat. Did you sort of tactically move toward repeat in the 2Q? And that kind of helps keep a higher quality new owner tour coming in and keeping those metrics high?
That make sense? So let me go back to my commentary at the end of Q1. You know, we've just gone through Liberation Day. I think everyone was super nervous around the uncertainty in the macro economy. We've now gone three months through the quarter, and there's not really been a change. We've not changed what we're trying to do. We're not trying to force any issue. I'm not going to ask my team to force the 35%. We're going to execute against our business. If we didn't bring up 35% to you all, we wouldn't even discuss it because, you know, the industry sits their companies in 30%. There's companies at 40%. And in that range, you can run a highly successful timeshare business. So, we're going to stay consistent to the way we generate new owners and if there's fluctuation down to 30 up to 40 we are north star for this business long term and the second half of this year will be 35 but it'll be no sweat if we hit 32 33 and i'm not going to get overly excited at 37 38 the normal cadence of adding marketing taking it away refining the business means we will end up over time at 35%. And keeping a highly executing sales and marketing team without dropping in changes in the middle of quarters inorganically or unnaturally doesn't help the overall enterprise. So this is our percentage in Q2 was natural. We didn't do anything unique to drive or decelerate the number and the performance. specifically a new owner, the KPIs, as I mentioned in Steven's question, are really strong and set up well for the long term.
Okay, that's super helpful and crystal clear. This is, I guess, a follow-up to that and maybe more of a mathematical question, that is, and I know that there's no hard target on the back half for new owners, but if you are looking for a sequential improvement you know, what gives you confidence you can get a sequential improvement while also keeping VPGs in line sequentially while tour flow grows, right? I would think, like, the logic or the math would tell me that, you know, you'd have, if you did improve a new owner mix throughout the back half, you would see sequential pressure on VPGs. So maybe I'm missing something.
Yeah, so... Again, let me just come back to I'm going to worry less about the percentage, and I'm going to spend more energy and our team spend more energy of are we growing our tour mix? Are we lapping our harder comps? Are we executing against our new partnerships? And are we opening on time the new channels and the new in-house opportunities that we have? What we're seeing is, you know, that – First three weeks of July is our marketing teams on the new owner side are executing extremely well. They're executing against new partnerships. They're activating in the regions in a high new owner period being in July. Percentage aside, the new owner channel is growing the way we want it to. Yes, there needs to be acceleration in Q3 from the 3% NQ2 growth and the 2% first half of the year, year-on-year growth. So yeah, we expect acceleration. Early indications are we're going to get that acceleration. And the key now is we raised our full-year VPG guidance, but the big win in the second half of the year is if we accelerate tour flow and maintain VPGs where they were in Q2. But, you know, it is a balance. And, you know, right now our team's balance is extremely well.
Excellent. Great. Thanks for the thoughts, Michael.
Thanks, Brent.
Thank you. Next question is a follow-up from Patrick Schultz from Truist Security. Her line is now live.
Great. Just a quick follow-up question on the Sports Illustrated question. Just give us an update on when you expect Alabama to open. It sounds like Nashville will be next year, but where do you stand with Alabama? And then specifically on Nashville, how is that being financed? Is that asset light or is that something that you're putting perhaps partially or fully on balance sheet? Thank you.
Okay, so let me hit each of the markets one by one. So Nashville is a conversion property. It'll be just-in-time inventory to match revenue to sales, 185 units opening in the spring of 2026, and expectation is to start sales at some point in Q4 this year. Tuscaloosa is a purpose-built project, which – We've gone through the permitting process, which put us about a quarter behind from our original expectations. So it's going to be early 27 for delivery. I would expect to sort of split those two goalposts is that we will do another announcement this year on a third Sports Illustrated resort. More than likely to be conversion, but more to come on that. We told you on the last call we'd announce by this call we did. I'd expect that we do one more announcement this year for our third location, which, again, I'd expect to be just in time, and I'd expect to be conversion as well.
Okay. Thank you for the color on that. I'm all set. All right, Patrick.
Thank you. Thank you. We've reached the end of our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further closing comments.
Thanks, Kevin, and thanks again for joining us today. We're proud of what our team has accomplished so far this year and are excited about what's ahead. We remain focused on executing our strategy, driving long-term value, and navigating the market with discipline and agility. As we look forward, we're confident in the strength of our business, the resilience of our model, and our future opportunities. We appreciate your time today and look forward to keeping you updated on our progress in the quarter.