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spk11: and listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. I will now turn the call over to Jennifer Gunther, Chief Sustainability Officer and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
spk07: Thank you and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2023 conference call and webcast. Turning to slide two, on our call today are John Romano and Jean-Francois Tourjon, co-chief executive officers, and John Srivastol, senior vice president, chief financial officer. We will be using slides as we move through today's call. You can access the presentation on our website at investor.toronox.com. Moving to slide three, a friendly reminder that comments made on this call and the information provided in our presentation and on our website include certain statements that are forward-looking and subject to various risks and uncertainties. including but not limited to the specific factors summarized in our SEC filing. This information represents our best judgment based on what we know today. However, actual results may vary based on these risks and uncertainties. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. During the conference call, we will refer to certain non-US GAAP financial terms that we use in the management of our business and believe are useful to investors in evaluating the company's performance. Reconciliations to their nearest U.S. GAAP terms are provided in our earnings release and in the appendix of the accompanying presentation. Additionally, please note that all financial comparisons made during the call are on a year-over-year basis unless otherwise noted. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to John Romano. John?
spk13: Thanks, Jennifer, and good morning, everyone. We'll begin this morning on slide five with some key messages from the quarter. We delivered fourth quarter top line performance in line with expectations. TIO2 sales volumes declined approximately 4% in the quarter compared to the third quarter. Volumes were slightly lower than expected due to more seasonality in North America than anticipated, and we also experienced some shipment delays as a result of congestion in the Red Sea that delayed some stock transfers to cover our bottlic outage in Europe. Our TIO2 pricing was only down 1% compared to the third quarter, which was better than our previous guide. Our Zircon volumes increased 82% versus the third quarter, higher than expected and communicated on our last earnings call. However, we did experience some unfavorable product and regional mix, which negatively impacted our marginal quarter. Zircon pricing was down 9% compared to the third quarter due to product mix and some regional pricing adjustments, primarily in Asia Pacific. Revenue was also higher from other products due to additional sales of pig iron, as well as opportunistic sales of melmanite and a portion of our rare earths tailing deposit in South Africa, which is a key part of our funding strategy for our rare earths business. Our adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter came in 11 million below our guided range. This was primarily driven by a delayed restart of our steam supplier at Botlik and higher costs from unanticipated downtime stemming from running at lower rates. While the Botlik situation is now under control and our suppliers back up and running, we saw approximately 10 million more in costs than forecasted due to the longer downtime. Importantly, our supplier outage did not disrupt our ability to fulfill customer demand as we were able to reposition inventory from our other global assets to meet customer demand in Europe. We expect to recover at least $15 million in insurance proceeds in 2024 as a result of the downtime at public in the second half of 2023. This amount represents the cost incurred to continue to provide uninterrupted service to our customers while working around the supplier outage. The operating challenges we experienced in the last six months are not indicative of the standard we hold ourselves to at Tronox. And we're addressing these challenges head on in 2024. In 2023, we ran at the lowest utilization rates on record in order to manage inventories and free cash flow in light of the lower market demand. As we look into 2024, we're adjusting our operating rights to support the market recovery currently underway. This will set Tronux up to realize a step change in earnings power after we work through the remaining high-cost inventory on the balance sheet. Our free cash flow for the quarter came in higher than expected at $51 million despite the lower than forecasted earnings owing to our cash management initiatives. We saw positive inflow of nearly $60 million from working capital quarter. I'll let John run through more of the year-end numbers from the balance sheet, but we're very comfortable with where we are from liquidity and debt position. Despite the lower market demand, we took action at the right time in 2023 to bolster the balance sheet and ensure we had sufficient liquidity. I'm proud of our team, how our team has proactively prepared for a variety of scenarios. And Tronox is very well positioned as we stand today, especially considering the key capital projects we've planned for 2024, which we'll discuss a little bit later on the call. Turning to slide six, I'll now review a few updates on some of the key sustainability initiatives. We are nearing the conversion of 40% of our power in South Africa to power from the significant solar project we helped develop in partnership with the solar group. This project is one of South Africa's largest solar installations. We expect to receive power in the coming months, which will significantly reduce our carbon emissions globally and mark the first significant step on our journey to net zero in 2050. Renewable power and energy efficiency projects are key to achieving our 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reductions target of 50%, so we're excited to mark such a significant milestone. We have another renewable project in development in South Africa that we hope to provide more details on soon. Also underway are various initiatives to achieve our stated targets towards reducing our waste to external landfills. This includes exploring alternative uses for waste in a number of opportunities, including cement, road base, bricks, and water treatment chemicals. We are also continuing to evaluate opportunities to extract valuable minerals and metals from waste, including rare earths, scandium, and vanadium. We're excited about the progress we've made and look forward to continuing to updating you on our journey. I'll now turn the call over to John to review some of our financials for the quarter in more detail. John?
spk01: Thank you, John. Turning to slide seven, revenue of $686 million increased 6% compared to the prior year, primarily from TIO2 and other product sales. This represented an increase of 4% relative to the prior quarter due to higher Zircon and other product sales. Income from operations was $8 million in the quarter. We reported a net loss of $56 million. Our effective tax rate in the quarter was 75%. Despite generating a loss before income taxes, we paid $24 million in taxes in the quarter as the majority of our taxes are paid in South Africa, where we had higher earnings than expected, owing to higher Zircon sales and the sale of a portion of our rare earths tailing deposit. In the majority of our other jurisdictions, we either realize a net loss or have NOL positions. As a result, our adjusted diluted earnings per share was a loss of 38 cents. As previously discussed, our adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was 94 million, and our adjusted EBITDA margin was 13.7%. Free cash flow generated in the quarter was $51 million. Now let's move to slide eight for a review of our commercial performance. TI2 revenues increased 9% versus the year-ago quarter, driven by a 16% increase in sales volume, a 6% decrease in average selling prices, and unfavorable product mix impact of 2%. We saw a favorable impact from FX of 1%. Zircon volumes decreased 26% compared to the year-ago quarter, and Zircon pricing was lowered by 11%. Revenue from other products was $110 million, an increase of 38% compared to the prior year, driven by higher sales of pig iron, silmanite, and rare earth tailings that John previously mentioned. Turning to slide 9, I will now review our operating performance for the quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA of $94 million represents a 17% decline year-on-year, driven by lower average selling prices and higher operating costs due to lower production rates. This is partially offset by improved sales volume and product mix, favorable exchange rate tailwinds, and lower freight costs. Sequentially, adjusted EBITDA decreased 19%, driven by higher operating costs due to lower production rates and lower product pricing. This is partially offset by improvement in sales volume and product mix, exchange rate tailwinds, and lower freight costs. As we mentioned previously, we brought down our operating rates in order to manage inventory and cash. which had an unfavorable impact on our costs in the fourth quarter and across the year. Quarter over quarter, production costs increases of $40 million included $16 million of higher costs associated with lower absorption and higher input costs, $12 million of lower cost or market and idle facility charges due to lower production rates, and $9 million of higher mining costs. Turning to slide 10, I'll now review our financial position. We ended the quarter with total debt of 2.8 billion and net debt of 2.6 billion. Our net leverage at the end of December was 4.9 times on a trailing 12-month basis. While we ended the year with higher debt than the prior year, the incremental term loan of 350 million raised in the third quarter reinforced the strength of our balance sheet and bolstered available liquidity ahead of anticipated critical vertical integration-related capital expenditures. Our nearest term of significant maturity remains 2028, and we have no financial covenants on our term loans or bonds. Our weighted average interest rate in Q4 was 6.17%. We maintained interest rates such that approximately 73% of our interest rates are fixed through 2024 and approximately 64% are fixed from 2044 through 2028, aligning with the maturity of our term loan. As a result, we do not expect to see our average interest rate increase significantly in the year. Total available liquidity as of December 31st was $761 million, including $273 million in cash and cash equivalents, an improvement from our Q3 levels and owing to positive cash generated in the quarter. Capital expenditures totaled $59 million in the quarter. Approximately 65% of this was for maintenance and safety, and 35% was for strategic growth projects. DD&A expense was $69 million for the quarter. We returned $20 million to shareholders in the form of dividends in the quarter. We'll now turn the call back over to John Romano for some comments on the year ahead in our outlook. John?
spk13: Thanks, John. We expect 2024 to see a reversal of several of the trends from the last 18 months. On the market, we've already begun to see a pickup in demand for TIO2 that is more positive than we would see normally at this time of year. January sales were strong, and we're seeing continued strengthening in the market for February and March order books. We expect TO2 pricing to reverse its downward trend and improve as we move through 2024. Zircon volumes are also continuing to improve from the trough levels realized in July of 2023. The magnitude of the recovery will be somewhat dependent on China as it makes up 50% of the total Zircon market. However, even without that significant shift in China, we're seeing demand recover. On the operational side, as I mentioned previously, We incurred significant costs in 2023 from running our assets at low utilization rates due to soft market demand. We incurred between 25 and 35 million in fixed cost absorption headwinds in each quarter of last year. In 2024, we're already beginning to increase our operating rates in line with demand, which will have a positive impact on our manufacturing cost. We still have high cost inventory to move through the business, which we anticipate will carry partially into the second quarter. But by the second half of the year, we should see margins revert to our more normalized levels. We continue to deploy technology at our sites to reduce costs and improve efficiencies, which will also improve our cost position as we ramp up. We are investing in key capital projects to sustain our vertical integration as well. From a growth perspective, our R&D efforts remain focused on product and process innovation to enhance profitability. Additionally, we're continuing to explore opportunities in the rare earth space. As rare earths are already present in the heavy mineral sands we mine in South Africa and Australia, we are continuing to explore opportunities to increase value after these highly sought after minerals. We are also continuing to drive our sustainability initiatives, which not only are critical to preserving our privilege to operate, but also support Tronox's value proposition. And we'll continue to challenge ourselves to be a leader in this regard. Moving to slide 12, I'd like to spend some time reviewing two of our key capital projects for 2024. This year we'll be investing $130 million in two key mining projects in South Africa to replace our existing mines, which are reaching the end of their life. Investment in these projects were delayed in 2023 to preserve cash given the lower market demand. These investments will maintain our more than $300 a ton advantage relative to market pricing for feedstock. Each project is expected to generate IRRs in excess of 30%. These are critical projects to maintain Tronox's vertically integrated strategy that will continue to enhance our position as a leading TIO2 producer and the industry's leading financial performance. Turning to slide 13, I'll review our outlook for the quarter and the year ahead in more detail. On the first quarter for 24, We expect TIO2 volumes to increase 12 to 16% and Zircon volumes to increase 15 to 30%, both compared to the fourth quarter. We expect both TIO2 and Zircon pricing to remain relatively flat in the quarter. While we expect a headwind from non-repeating sales in other products, this will be offset by some improvement on fixed costs due to our higher operating rights. As a result, we're expecting Q1 2024 adjusted EBITDA to be 100 to 120 million, and adjusted EBITDA margins to be in the mid-teens. While we're not providing full-year EBITDA guidance, we did want to provide a view on our expectations for our 24 cash uses. Our capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $395 million for the year. Our net cash taxes are expected to be less than $10 million as the significant capital expenditures in South Africa are deductible. Our net cash interest expense is expected to be $145 million and we're expecting working capital to be a tailwind. And the magnitude of that tailwind will depend on the significant, how significant the market recovery this year. Our strategy remains largely unchanged. We're prioritizing investments in the business that are critical to furthering our strategy and driving value from a vertically integrated portfolio. Even at this investment level, we expect to generate positive free cash flow for the year. We will see, we will also be focused on bolstering our liquidity, and as the market recovers, will look to resume debt pay down. We will continue to evaluate strategic high growth opportunities as they arise. Currently, we're focusing on the rare earth space and we will keep the market updated on any key developments. That will conclude our prepared remarks and we'll now move to Q&A portion of the call. So I'll hand the call back over to the operator to facilitate. Operator?
spk11: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press star, followed by the one on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request, and your questions will be pulled in the order they are received. Should you wish to decline from the pulling process, please press star, followed by the two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift a hand simply before pressing any keys. One moment, please, for your first question. Your first question comes from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
spk04: Yeah, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So I guess the first one would just be, you know, you've got a relatively positive outlook as, you know, on the volume front for TIO2 as we look to the first quarter. Is there any geographic deviation in terms of where you're seeing kind of that outsized or above normal demand, or is it relatively broad? How should we think about that?
spk13: Yeah, thanks for the question. So look, in the first quarter, it's relatively broad. We're seeing it across all the sectors. We mentioned that we saw a little bit more seasonality in the fourth quarter in the North American market, and we're starting to see the North American market pick up a bit more. So that increase in Q1 sales, normally Q1 and Q4 would typically be pretty similar. So we really do believe that based on what we're seeing in the field from our customers, we're confident that the destocking has largely run its course, and we're seeing customers restocking and moving it to more normal buying patterns. I think additionally, historically, our business has kind of led in and out of economic transitions, and we really do believe we're on the front end of a recovery, and this is having, I'd say, a more positive impact on our outlook for the entire year. Got it.
spk04: Okay, fair enough. And then maybe just speaking to the fixed cost absorption issue, you highlighted in one of the slides, you know, a $25 to $35 million per quarter hit. So, I mean, we're talking like $100 to $150 million for the year, which is pretty chunky. I guess, is there a way to think about what volume levels you need or what we need to see in 2024 to completely erase that? Or, like, is there kind of a rule of thumb that we should be thinking about as that kind of fixed cost absorption headwind dies down?
spk13: That's a great question. I'll start, and John, maybe you can add on to it. Historically, wind the clock back four quarters, we were, I think, 18 months in a row consistently above 20% EBITDA margins, and we quoted something just below 14%. So, you know, running at the rates that we've been running at, which, again, we made the point that it's lower than what we've ever historically run, we believe that where we're ramping up right now, and we're not at full capacity, we're ramping up the assets, that as we move through the first quarter, we'll start to get to volumes and I'd say capacity utilization, which should get us back to, I would say, mid to normal run rates on EBITDA margin, but we also have to think about the inventory that we've got to work through. So I made the reference on the call that we've got inventory on the balance sheet. We're going to have to work through that. It's probably going to work its way probably halfway through the second quarter. But when we get in the second half of the year, you should start to think about those normal low to mid 20 kind of run rates on EBITDA margin. And that's without a lot of movement on price.
spk08: And John, I would add to that that on the mining side of our business, remember last year we mentioned that the drop was so significant that we had to slow down our mine. And our mine and smelter are high fixed cost operations. We're back to running those assets at full capacity in 24. Got it.
spk04: Okay. No, that's very helpful. Thanks very much for the caller.
spk11: Your next question comes from David Begleder with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
spk03: Thank you. Good morning. John, you mentioned the prospects for higher pricing in CO2 this year. What do you think will manifest first in what region and by what end markets and customers?
spk13: So we typically don't give a lot of regional view on that, but I would expect, you know, Well, what I mentioned in the first quarter is pricing was going to be relatively flat, both on Zircon and on TIO2. And we did largely see rollovers moving into the first quarter of 2024. I would suspect that as we start to migrate out of the first quarter, we'll start to look at pricing opportunities across all regions. And there's a lot of activity. We've got a lot of questions about the anti-dumping. Everything that we're talking about right now has nothing to do with anti-dumping, right? Anti-dumping, if it actually happens, and it gets inputted and provisional duties come in, that could be something additive to this, but what we're talking about right now is just generally what we're seeing in the market. We would see, these are all the signs and indicators that would indicate pricing would start to move up. It's not in the first quarter, but we're hopeful we'll start to see some sort of movement as we move into Q2.
spk03: And John, on the anti-dumping, are you seeing any change in buyer behavior yet? because of these, uh, of this investigation and, um, what's the timeline from your perspective for the, for the EC to, uh, act here.
spk13: Yeah. So maybe on the timeline, the formal investigation, um, from the commission, you know, what we, what, what happened was the coalition, this was a coalition that was formed back in November of 23, when the dumping suit was filed. Um, we would expect the formal investigation to conclude in the second quarter. And under the process, the final recommendation won't happen until the fourth quarter. However, there could be a possibility that provisional duties could get put in place sometime as early as the second quarter. But that's yet to be seen. As far as are we seeing any real significant buying change, I'd say we're seeing a little bit, but nothing significant. There's some, I'd say, export activity that's going on. that's in line with what we would have expected as a dumping suit was filed in the EU. Thank you.
spk11: Your next question comes from Josh Vector with UBS. Please go ahead.
spk05: Hey, guys. This is James Cannon. I'm for Josh. Thanks for taking my question. Just if we go back to kind of the comments you gave on the mining projects you're doing in South Africa. Can you just give a little color as to the rationale behind moving forward with them now as opposed to once we've gotten back to kind of a more steady state? I mean, it seems like with the mining rates having come down last year, there would be additional capacity to kind of lift rates elsewhere in the system. and maybe not require that CapEx at this stage?
spk13: Last year, we delayed those projects, both projects in South Africa. One was a little bit further along than the other one. We have to run our business on the long term, and the mining projects actually do require a longer view than quarterly earnings. We feel that it was an appropriate delay what we did last year. We spent some time bolstering our liquidity last year for that specific purpose to make sure that we had the ability to invest in these assets. Because at the end of the day, as I mentioned on the call, these are actually replacing mines that are coming to the end of their life. So if we want to maintain our zircon volumes and the ilmenite to feed our smelters, these are long-term projects. And we've got a five-year plan for our TIO2 business but more like a 20-year plan to manage our mining. So we feel that what we're doing at this particular stage is not only appropriate, it's needed to make sure we can maintain our long-term business.
spk05: Okay, thanks. And then just on timing with those, can you give some commentary on when you anticipate those to start producing and whether or not there will be any drag on OPEX or absorption as those do start up?
spk13: So in both of those mines, there'll be basically a transition from the end of the mine of the previous one to a transition to the new one. So there shouldn't be a lot of lag or lead time moving in. It's all timing. As we move out of one body of ore, we'll be moving into another one. So there shouldn't be a lot of transition. Obviously, as we're bringing up some of the mining equipment, there could be a little bit of transition. We don't expect that to be a drag.
spk01: You know, I think as we start new mines, obviously there's the whole resource there, and we do optimize to bring out, you know, the higher value or earlier on. So, you know, we would expect when those mines come online to see some positive benefit.
spk03: Okay, great. Thanks.
spk11: Your next question comes from Duffy Fisher with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
spk14: Yeah, good morning, guys. If you could, your CapEx assumption for this year is 395. Your operating cash flow last year was 184. So to be free cash flow positive this year, that means you need to grow your operating cash flow a little over $200 million this year. Can you just walk through how you see those buckets coming through? How much of that would be an improvement in EBITDA? How much of that would be things like improvement in working capital? Anything else on the cash flow statement kind of beforehand? the operating activities that would get us at $200 million plus?
spk01: Yeah, Duffy, thanks for that question. And we aren't guiding for the full year. So, you know, from an earnings perspective, you know, we are optimistic, obviously expect an improvement year over year. And ultimately, our free cash flow, the scope and size of that positiveness we expect will depend on market dynamics there. But From a working capital perspective, that's the earnings and working capital are the biggest drivers. Obviously, we got it on interest, negative 145 million, taxes less than 10 million, and as you mentioned, capex of 395 million. So we do expect both free cash flow and working capital to be positive. From a working capital perspective, we do see, obviously, sales are going up. The AR is going to be a hurt, but that obviously is a good working capital use there. And we do see inventory. You know, we are building some inventory and that play with inventory and AR will all depend on, you know, top line sales growth. We do expect payables as well to be a source of cash as we are actively managing that throughout the year. So that's kind of where we are on free cash flow.
spk13: And just generically from the operating side, again, We talked a couple of times about running it. I think we've even thrown numbers up, 70% capacity utilization for over a year. And as we started to ramp up those assets as early as December of last year and into the first quarter, obviously a little teething as you start to move up from those lower rates. So it wasn't super smooth to get to where we are today, but now those assets are running. So when you think about that 25 to 35 million a quarter that we talked about as a negative due to fixed cost absorption, we'll start to see similar results and some of these unplanned outages that we have will be added onto that. So there'll be a significant portion of that. So when we think about the growth, it's obviously prices and opportunity, but running our assets at rates that are at a more normalized level, which are in line with what we've historically seen on EBITDA margins, as I mentioned before, it's going to be a big driver in our profitability.
spk14: Okay, thank you. And then there have been several reports out of South Africa with two of their larger unions in the mining industry kind of fighting and there's, I guess, been some kidnapping and stuff like that. Do you have both of those unions at your operation or are you kind of a single union? And then, you know, again, so are you seeing any issues with your operations or any of the other TIO2 operations in South Africa?
spk08: But see, I mean, I can tell you, we only have 1 union in our case, and we're looking to be in an area where there is no reality and no issue between the union. Look, we have always stated that. Our approach in South Africa is to work with our community. Our worker are not remote worker. They are local. They are member of the community where our mine and smelter are located. And that makes a huge difference with the dynamic. Often, all those issues that we heard about South Africa are related to where worker are like remote and hostile. And we don't have that issue at our mind.
spk14: Great. Thank you, guys.
spk11: Your next question comes from Jeff with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
spk06: Thanks very much. I think your TIO2 volume for the past two years is down about 15% each year. How do you think the industry shrank over 2022 and 23? How did you do compared to the overall industry?
spk13: Yeah, thanks, Jeff. Look, you're right. If you look at our, over the last two years, I think our volumes were down roughly 27%. So 15% of years, pretty much accurate. And China obviously grew. I know you take an interest in paying a lot of attention to the exports coming out of China. Um, China has taken a significant growth specifically in Asia Pacific. Um, you know, India has become a significant importer of Chinese material, a lot of Asia Pacific, so not just in China. So I do think that over time, I think we've probably lost a little bit of share to the Chinese and we've done that based on where we feel like it just was not competitive. Um, that being said, I think others probably were hurt a bit more than the Chinese were. I think our chloride capacity has provided us an opportunity to avoid some of that. That being said, we feel like we can compete directly with the Chinese. There's lots going on we've already talked about with some of the efforts that are trying to manage that in the European market. But I would suspect that the market is still growing. China took a disproportional share of that growth over the last couple of years.
spk09: Okay.
spk06: Thank you for that. And can you just give us sort of a status report on Project Neutron? That is, how much more is still to be spent, and what have the savings been, and what could the savings be? Where does all of that stand?
spk13: Yeah, so for 2024, we've still got about $20 million to spend. So, you know, we're going through some additional launches of S4 HANA in Asia Pacific as early as July of this year. So we're still working through that process. And I don't know, John, you may talk a little bit more some of the upsides as far as what we're seeing in opportunity. But there are, you know, we think about automated process control toys, which is Tronux's operational information system. All those things are being utilized to extract more out of our assets. I think early on, there was a fair amount of additional value that was coming from volume, which we haven't seen yet. So we would start to see that, I'd say, probably more towards the end of this year and early into next. But John?
spk01: Yeah, no, John, that's exactly right. I mean, we still do believe in the benefits that we're going to see from Neutron. We quoted it historically $150 to $200 per ton. And a big portion of that we did capture already from procurement savings, although that was mass loaded by the significant escalation we've had over the past couple years. But from a, you know, volume perspective, we said those aren't whole, but, you know, frankly, we think that some of those benefits will accelerate as we are bringing up our assets. So we do expect to still be within that range. You know, obviously, we only have deployed, as John mentioned, in Asia Pacific. So We will need to, from a systems perspective, but we have deployed from some of the other operating enhancements at multiple sites. So we do expect to see those benefits from a volume perspective.
spk07: And this is Jennifer. Just if I can add, we are seeing benefits at a site level from the deployment of some of the technologies like automated process control. So, for example, we're seeing reduced coke consumption in our chlorinators. When you look at a like-for-like comparison on the volumes produced, it's just a bit masked because of the low run rates that we're operating at. But for example, this did have a positive effect on Our GHG emissions, it reduced our intensity because we're more efficient for the tons we're producing. So we are capturing benefits, not all of them necessarily on the P&L. We're seeing them on the sustainability side of the business, but as we ramp our assets back up, we would expect to consume lower raw materials like coke in our chlorinators per ton of PIO2, and this should translate to benefits on the P&L.
spk06: So the spending is essentially done, or there's 20 million more to go, something relatively small, but as you ramp up, we should see the benefits. Is that the general idea?
spk13: That's correct. Yeah, that's correct. And just to Jennifer's point, I mean, the whole idea about that one automated process control on our chlorinators, we have 24 across the system. And last year, I think we finalized the implementation of all of that across the entire system. So Again, as we start to ramp up the assets, we'll start to get a lot more of that value, as Jennifer noted.
spk06: Maybe if I can sneak in one more question. Can you talk about what's going on with chlorine prices and what you expect for the year?
spk13: What I can say is that our chlorine prices have continued to move in a positive direction on the downside. Chlorine is very different depending upon the region. In Saudi Arabia, we make our own chlorine. In Australia, we have a lot of purpose-built plants. But in North America, we buy merchant chlorine. And we've seen what I would say is a significant reduction in Q4 and in Q1 on chlorine prices, which is going to have a positive impact as well. Okay, great.
spk06: Thank you so much.
spk11: Your next question comes from Mike Lighthead with Barclays. Please go ahead.
spk15: Great. Thank you. Good morning, guys. First question, what are you expecting from a Zircon pricing outlook?
spk13: So, I think I mentioned in the previous, or in my prepared comments, for the fourth quarter, or the first quarter, we saw a rollover on pricing. So, you know, there was actually a slight bump up in price from Q1, or from Q4 to Q1, but that's all mixed. So, in the first quarter, we're seeing flat pricing. Look, a lot of it's going to depend on how the market continues to evolve. July of 2023 was a very low point, but that was the bottom, and we've seen the market continue to improve. Q4 sales were up 82%. We forecasted in the prepared comments 15% to 30% additional increase in the first quarter. That big swing has a lot to do with whether a big bulk shipment is actually going to go this quarter or not. All of that growth is on the back of not much growth in the ceramic industry in China, which is about 50% of the market. So we're seeing the market recover. We believe that destocking has run its course. Customers are buying again, and we're starting to see an uplift. Even in China, in the non-ceramic applications, we started to see restocking occur. So we believe destocking has run its course there as well. So All of that would indicate that, you know, as we move through the year, we should start to see positive movements in Zircon pricing, but it's a little bit too early to provide a clear forecast on that yet.
spk15: Great. Thank you. And then, again, I apologize if I missed it, but what's the latest update on Jizan? Are you still expecting to get the full repayment in kind? And was the technical service agreement extended again, or did it roll off?
spk13: Yeah, so look, we're still working with Dijon. The debt is due in January of 25. We continue to get slag in lieu of, and that slag is actually going towards the payment of the debt. And there's not much change in our agreement with them at this particular stage. So still continuing to work with them. And the slag that we're getting is largely going down to pay down debt.
spk12: Okay, thank you.
spk11: Your next question comes from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global. Please go ahead.
spk00: Morning, John and J.F. Morning. You know, quick question around the cost curves, global cost curves as you see them right now. I mean, look, as I sort of sit there and think about the EBITDA margins that you guys just reported in Q4, you know, call it 13 and change percent. obviously down from Q4 of 22 levels of north of 17%, 17% plus in Q3. I'd like to think you guys being as integrated as you are, obviously, and you talk about this as well, enjoy sort of a margin premium relative to your competitors globally. So I'd like to think that there's a large chunk of the industry that is at breakeven to maybe even negative EBITDA margins, right? And then I sort of sit there and think about the guidance that you've given for 2024 of mid-teens EBITDA margins. I mean, does that get, if the industry moves in that direction, I mean, are you sort of guiding to the industry beginning to make sort of positive EBITDA margins? I mean, I'm just trying to get a sense of
spk13: where the industry is are these sort of break even to negative margins sustainable for the industry and maybe potentially are you being conservative in giving the margin guidance that you guys have given hey thanks son look the guidance that we gave for mid-teens was for q1 and you know i think we got a question a bit earlier about you know where we see the business moving um a lot of that margin Let's just say price doesn't move, which we've said we expect it to, but if price didn't move, our margin is going to improve as our capacity increases. And by mid-year, we would expect that our EBITDA margins will be, you know, back in the 20s. You know, we ran 18 months, 18 quarters in the mid to high 20s. So just put pricing aside, running our assets because of our vertical integration is actually going to do just exactly what you said. It's going to get us to normalize EBITDA margins. On our competitors, I'm not going to speak to them, but their information is publicly available. I wouldn't disagree with the comments you made. I do believe that the Chinese are in that similar boat with not making significant EBITDA margin anywhere. We believe the majority of them are losing money. So we believe our margins are going to improve and 24 is going to be a much better year. And ultimately, where we are as an industry is not a sustainable place to be. Negative EBITDA margins, you can't do that for very long because people don't have balance sheets to support that.
spk00: Fair enough. And as a follow-up, if I could revisit the whole sort of European Commission anti-dumping side of things, I mean, is it fair to assume, you know, whatever direction the final ruling takes, I mean, is it fair to assume that it's almost like 200 to 250,000 tons of sort of material that is up for grabs and that could potentially entirely go towards the Western producers?
spk13: Yeah, look, I guess up for grabs is a way to look at it, but if I'm a Chinese producer, I mean, the other option would be for them to raise their price. But once a duty is in place, I think that that is going to drive some different behavior for sure. And it's early days. Like I said, the formal investigation won't end until the first quarter or end of the first quarter. And then it'll typically be the end of the year before the process is complete. Provisional duties could come sooner than that. So, you know, we're just kind of Again, this was something that was led by a coalition of suppliers, so it's not like we have exact data on what's happening, but we do have a pretty good idea of where we are in the process. It's just a bit early to determine what that duty is and if it's going to get implemented. But if it were to, yes, I would definitely think that there's going to be some volume shift and some pricing opportunity.
spk00: Perfect. Thank you so much.
spk11: Your next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.
spk12: Please go ahead. Vincent Andrews, your line is open.
spk11: Your next question comes from Roger Stips with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
spk10: Thank you and good morning. Two questions. The first one is for 2024, in addition to EBITDA, CapEx, what have you, that you've identified, what I refer to as other free cash flow items, you identified a potential 15 million insurance recovery. Are there any other so-called other cash flow items for 2024 that we should think about, whether restructuring or other items in your operating cash flow?
spk01: No, Roger, we don't have anything forecasted or expected at this point other than the insurance recovery that you mentioned.
spk10: Got it. And then second is, I know it's early days, but I just want to fill stuff in on the model. For 2025, how should we think about CapEx with relation to 2024? Same level or different? And perhaps the cash tax rate in 2024, you talked about South African mining operations. Does that repeat in 2025, or is that more back to a normal cash tax rate?
spk13: Yeah, so look, we don't have a complete forecast for 2025 capital yet, but it'll probably be slightly lower than what we have. We've still got some other mining projects going on, and John, you can comment on the tax, but to the extent we're still spending money in South Africa, you know, that would be deductible, so...
spk01: It's a little early to come up with what our tax is going to be. Yeah, I agree with that, John. And, you know, we will be spending, this is not a one-year investment in South Africa. It's a multi-year. So those expenses that we would spend on capital in South Africa would be deductible in 2025.
spk10: Thank you very much.
spk11: Your next question comes from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
spk04: Yeah, hi guys. Sorry, just one follow up. So when I look at your inventory and the hit that it's had on working capital over the last couple of years, it's about $400 million in the last two years. If you were turned to kind of more normal operating rates at the middle of this year, I guess, how long realistically will it take to reverse that inventory drag where you see a source of funds from inventory? Can you clean all that up in whatever, two to three years? Is it, hey, look, this could take a very long time? I guess I'm just not sure with the mining side how to think about how this all could work through and how quickly you could recapture some of that lost inventory.
spk01: Yeah, John, it's a good point. As we mentioned, we have a long supply chain, so while in the past 18 months or so we did slow down our pigment sites and brought down that inventory, we were running our mines relatively flat out, so build some feedstock inventory. If you take a look at 2024, we actually do see that reversing. Inventory, we do expect Um, that's a bigger swing historically on what was driving the negative working capital change. And as you, as we've guided, we do expect working capital to be positive. And a lot of that is owing to, um, to inventory, uh, cashing out on that.
spk04: I guess, can you get the full 400 million back or is there some reason why, why that won't be the case? And I don't mean in 24, I just mean, is there, Are we at kind of a new level for one reason or another, or should you be able to reverse that $400 million inventory headwind from the last two years?
spk01: Yeah, we would expect that we would recover that over time. Not in 24, but definitely recover it.
spk04: Got it. Thanks very much for the call. Thank you.
spk11: Your next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
spk02: Hi, thank you. This is Turner Henrichs on for Vincent. In your slides, you mentioned that the February and March order books are tracking above strong January sales. Do you mind touching on what end markets or channels are driving the strength and any movements in inventory levels that you're seeing?
spk13: Yeah, look, so those are, it's basically across the entire market. So, every region we're seeing additional volumes. I mentioned that we're seeing, again, North America didn't drop as much as I think the other regions, and it's, I'd say, a little bit slower to picking back up. We referenced in the fourth quarter, we saw a little bit more seasonality, but we're also seeing North America pick up a little bit stronger in the first quarter. So I'd say it's across the board, and it's not specific to any particular end segment. So it's coatings, plastics, paper, and specialties.
spk02: Great. Makes sense. Do you mind providing some additional color on what you're seeing for important export trends? And if you have any details as it relates to freight costs, if they're affecting those trends or the underlying macro across the regions, that would also be great.
spk13: Any specific region you're referring to on imports and exports or just generically?
spk02: Generally, it would be interesting to hear about Chinese exports or European imports broadly, both given, you know, Chinese export trends and the anti-dumping probe. That would also be of interest.
spk13: Yeah, so in China, over the last couple of months, we don't have actually January numbers yet. But I'd say November and December, we've continued to see an uptick, which was not, I'd say, surprising considering there was an anti-dumping suit filed. So we've seen some additional exports coming out of China, and Europe is obviously a big market for bringing in material from China. As far as some of the activity going on in Europe and other areas, I referenced some issues with imports and exports due to the congestion in the Red Sea. So for producers that are in Europe, I think they're actually getting a little bit of benefit from that, depending upon where they're located and where they're shipping. I wouldn't say there's significant change in activity. Now, on the freight, we are seeing some positive moves on freight. What's happening in the Red Sea is, I'd say, a bit more of a short-term anomaly where we're seeing some spot rates that are higher than what we put in our forecast. But, you know, historically, over the course of the last 24 months, freight rates have gone up significantly, and we're starting to see those abate. And that's, I'd say, a tailwind for us as we think about our 24th forecast. although right now some of those rates have been, I'd say, negatively impacted due to some of the activity that's happening in the Middle East.
spk11: Great. Thank you so much for the color. I will now turn the call over to John Romano, co-CEO.
spk13: Thank you, operator. Look, we're very confident in where we are. for our company moving into 2024. And our vertical integration strategy, we believe, will continue to provide our competitive advantage. We remain optimistic in the short, the long term for Tronox, the value creation from a lot of the projects that we're doing, including sustainable mining and upgrading solutions. So I'd like to thank you all for your interest in Tronox and your support, and have a great day.
spk11: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.
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