Tronox Holdings plc

Good morning. Welcome to the Tronox Holdings PLC Q1 2025 earnings conference call. All participants will be in a listen only mode until the question and answer session begins. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the call over to Jennifer Gunther, Chief Sustainability Officer, Head of Investor Relations and External Affairs. Please go ahead.

Thank you, and welcome to our first quarter 2025 conference call and webcast. Turning to slide two, on our call today are John Romano, Chief Executive Officer, and John Cervasol, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer. We will be using slides as we move through today's call. You can access the presentation on our website at investor.tronox.com. Moving to slide three, a friendly reminder that comments made on this call and the information provided in our presentation and on our website include certain statements that are forward-looking and subject to various risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to the specific factors summarized in our SEC filings. This information represents our best judgment based on what we know today. However, actual results may vary based on these risks and uncertainties. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. During the conference call, we will refer to certain non-US GAAP financial terms that we use in the management of our business and believe are useful to investors in evaluating the company's performance. Reconciliations to their nearest US GAAP terms are provided in our earnings release and in the appendix of the accompanying presentation. Additionally, please note that all financial comparisons made during the call are on a year-over-year basis unless otherwise noted. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to John Romano. John?

Thanks, Jennifer, and good morning, everyone. We'll begin this morning on slide four with some key messages from the quarter. We realized a stronger-than-normal seasonal demand uplift in TO2 volumes in Q1, with an increase of 12% from the Q1. Q4 of 2024. Europe led to sequential growth, bolstered by anti-dumping duties. We are beginning to see the expected benefits from the duties that were finalized in the EU in January, resulting in sales volumes recovering to levels not seen since the second quarter of 2021 in Europe. North America also realized stronger seasonable trends, while competitive activity in Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia continued to exert pressure on sales. Zircon sales were lower both compared to the prior year and sequentially due to a slower start in China as expected. Additionally, despite increased competitive dynamics across all products, average pricing for the quarter came in as anticipated with TIO2 and Zircon both down 2% sequentially. Our production costs in the first quarter were higher than expected primarily due to lower operating rates at Botlik and increases in direct material prices. In response to ongoing macroeconomic volatility, we have taken decisive strategic actions to manage the levers within our control to deliver our cost improvements. Our focus on cost reduction initiatives drove lower SG&A in the quarter. In addition, in March, we announced the difficult decision to idle our Botlik pigment plant in the Netherlands. The decision was a result of an extensive review of our asset footprint driven by the ongoing global supply imbalance caused by Chinese competition, as well as an increasingly challenged operating environment over the last two and a half years. We deeply value our commitments to our employees, the employee unions, local works council, and key stakeholders. We appreciate the constructive dialogue and smooth process to date, which is a testament to the professionalism of our employees at the Botwick facility. These measures and actions underscore our commitment to operational efficiency and enhanced earnings. I will review these and other actions in more detail a little bit later in the call, but for now, I'll turn the call over to John to review our financials from the quarter in more detail.

John. Thank you, John. Turning to slide five. We generated revenue of $738 million, an increase of 9% sequentially driven primarily by higher TIO2 sales volumes. Loss from operations was $61 million in the quarter. We reported net loss of $111 million, which includes $87 million of restructuring and other charges, primarily non-cash costs relating to the idling of Botlik. While our loss before taxes was 106 million, our tax expense was 5 million in the quarter, as we do not realize tax benefits in jurisdictions where we are realizing losses. Adjusted duality earnings per share was a loss of 15 cents. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was 112 million, and our adjusted EBITDA margin was 15.2%. Our free cashflow was a use of 142 million, including 110 million of capital expenditures. Now let's move to the next slide for a review of our commercial performance. TIO2 revenues decreased 3% versus the year ago quarter, driven equally by a 1% decreases in sales volumes, price including mix and unfavorable exchange rates. Sequentially, TIG revenues increased 10% as a higher than typical seasonal demand uplift drove a 12% increase in volumes led by European demand as John referenced earlier. This was partially offset by a 2% decrease in average selling prices including mix. Zircon revenues decreased 22% compared to the prior year driven by a 15% decrease in sales volume and a 7% decrease due to price including mix. Sequentially Zircon revenues decreased 8% driven by a 6% decrease in volumes and a 2% headwind from price including mix. Revenue from other products increased 5% compared to the prior year and 25% versus the prior quarter due to higher sales of Pig Iron and opportunistic sales of Illuminite. Turning to the next slide, I will now review our operating performance for the quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA of 112 million represented a 15% decline year on year as favorable production costs and SG&A cost reductions were offset by unfavorable commercial impacts, freight rate increases and exchange rate headwinds. Production costs were favorable by 9 million compared to the prior year driven by favorable pigment costs and partially offset by higher mining costs. Sequentially, adjusted EBITDA declined 13%. Higher production costs and lower average selling prices, including mix, were partially offset by favorable exchange rate improvements and higher TIO2 sales. Compared to Q4, production costs were a $17 million headwind, driven by lower operating rates primarily at BATLIC, increases in direct material prices, and higher mining costs. Turn to the next slide. We ended the quarter with total debt of 3.0 billion and net debt of 2.8 billion. Our net leverage ratio at the end of March was 5.2 times on a trailing 12 month basis. Our weighted average interest rate in Q1 was 5.8% and we maintain interest rates swaps such at approximately 69% of our interest rates are fixed through 2028. Our next significant debt maturity is not until 2029 and we do not have any financial covenants on our term loans or bonds. Liquidity as of March 31st was 443 million, including 138 million in cash and cash equivalents that are well distributed across the globe. Working capital was a use of 101 million in the first quarter. This was driven by higher accounts receivable from improved sales, increased finished goods inventory, and a typical Q1 decrease in accounts payable. Our capital expenditures totaled 110 million in the quarter with approximately 49% allocated to maintenance and safety and 51% to strategic projects, primarily the mining extensions in South Africa to sustain our integrated cost advantage. Finally, we declared a dividend of 12 and a half cents per share in the first quarter that was paid to shareholders in the second quarter. I will now turn the call back over to John to talk more about our strategic actions and comments on the year in head. John.

Thanks, John. We're in a period of highly volatile and challenging times from a macroeconomic perspective. Continued inflation, prolonged high interest rates and escalating tariffs, to name only a few factors, are driving challenged housing markets and muted consumer sentiment against a backdrop of increasing competitive activity. These factors, however, are outside of our control. We are therefore continuing to maintain our focus on strategic actions to maintain what is within our control. This includes executing on our sustainable cost improvement plan as announced last quarter, strategically evaluating our asset footprint, which led to the announcement of the idling of our Botlik plant in March, and investing capital to complete our South African mining projects that will yield significant cost improvement from 2026 onward. We are continually assessing our capital spend, managing our working capital and driving continuous cost improvement and discipline cost management across our entire business. Together these actions will secure Tronox position as a leading vertically integrated titanium mining and upgrading producer and underscore our commitment to operational efficiency and enhancing future earnings. Turning to slide 10. We introduced our cost improvement program last quarter, which is critical to achieving sustainable long-term improvements that will drive structural efficiencies in our business. We expect to deliver 125 to 175 million in sustainable run rate cost improvements by the end of 2026. The majority of these savings will come from our operations through operational excellence and technology to drive efficiencies and innovation. We are also focused on ensuring our SG&A is aligned to ensure resources are strategically positioned to drive the greatest business impact. And we're already seeing the early wins on this front with reduced spend in this area. The bulk of these cost improvements are expected to be realized next year through the actions we're taking this year. Our team is laser focused on delivering the targets that we've outlined. Reducing our cost is critical to sustaining our long-term advantage. Turning to the next slide. A significant contributor to Tronox's cost advantage is our vertical integration. Producing high-grade feedstock internally allows us to realize significant cost advantages. We also receive high-value coproducts from our mining activities, such as zircon and rare earth minerals, all of which are accretive to our earnings profile. Sustaining the vertical integration through the replacement of mines as they reach end of life is key in maintaining our cost advantage. The expansion at Fairbreeze and Namaqua East OFS have been underway since last year and are expected to be completed this year. While we're realizing a $50 to $60 million headwind this year due to higher costs for mining lower grade ore bodies, we will see this flip to a benefit next year as we mine the new high grade ore bodies. We're excited to see the progress to date at these mines and look forward to the commissioning of Fairbreeze in July and East OFS in November. Turning to the next slide. We are maintaining our guidance for 2025. Despite the rise in volatility, the changes we've observed so far aren't substantial enough to warrant adjustment to our outlook. To reiterate our previous guidance, we expect 2025 revenue to be in the range of 3 to 3.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of 525 to 625 million. As mentioned on our last call, the assumptions supporting our ranges include anticipated improvements in pigment and zircon volumes, which will be partially offset by headwinds from non-repeating sales of other products. Our guidance also assumes that the second half of 2025 will be stronger than the first, as pricing is expected to be more of a headwind in the first half of the year before recovering in the second half. We also expect volumes to be stronger in the second half of the year, building on the momentum from the anti-dumping measures we're seeing in Europe and the additional benefits we expect to see in India and Brazil when the duties are finalized. On the operation side, we assume benefits from non-repeating idle and LCM charges and improving pigment production costs are partially offset from higher mining production costs, which are more heavily weighted in the first half of the year as Fairbreeze will be commissioned in July and East OFS will be commissioned in November. In light of the new US tariff environment, we have assessed their potential impact on our operations. Our primary materials, titanium dioxide and feedstock, are exempt from the reciprocal tariffs. Additionally, our geographically diverse asset footprint enables us to produce and sell more locally. As a result, we do not anticipate any significant tariff impacts on direct material purchases. The most substantial effects will be on steel related inputs and MRO materials through secondary cost exposure. We anticipate the EBITDA impact to be less than $5 million in 2025 on tariffs based on what we know today. With the actions we've taken over the last several months, we now expect free cash flow to be $50 million or greater this year. Turning to the capital allocation strategy. We continue to prioritize our investments that are essential to advancing our strategy and maximizing our vertically integrated business. We also remain focused on strengthening our liquidity and resuming debt pay down as the market recovers. We are targeting mid to long-term net leverage ratio less than three times through the cycle. Our dividend remains a priority. And finally, we'll continue to assess strategic high growth opportunities as they emerge, including rare earths, We are already taking steps to improve our cash generation through strategic actions such as idling our Botlik facility to lower inventory, reducing capital expenditures and executing on our cost improvement program. We will continue to assess our capital allocation strategy and other cash improvement levers at our disposal to ensure that we remain agile and responsive to the market. That will conclude our prepared comments. I'll now turn this over to Q&A operator.

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you're participating in Q&A and have joined via webinar, please use the raise hand icon, which can be found at the bottom of your webinar application screen. If you're participating in Q&A and have joined via phone, please press star nine on your keypad to raise your hand. When you are called on, you will be prompted to unmute your line and ask your question. If you have joined via phone, please dial star six to unmute yourself. We will now take a minute to queue the roster. Our first question comes from Peter Osterland from Troost Securities. Peter, please unmute your line and ask your question. Thank you.

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. So first, I was just wondering if we could get an update on how your expectations for TIO2 volume growth are shaping up this year. I know there's a couple of pieces there with underlying end market demand as well as any above market growth from winning market share. How is your outlook for the growth you would get this year from each of those evolved over the last few months?

Yeah, thanks for the question. So from the standpoint of growth, again, we made reference that, you know, as we go through the year, we're going to start to see a lift in the TIO2 demand. And it's largely driven from the duties that are in Europe already on the anti-dumping and the assumptions that we've made with regards to India and Brazil in the second half of the year. So what we're expecting in India is that we should have a final result on duties at the third week of May. And in June, towards the end of June, we should have a decision on Brazil. So the volume that we're seeing as far as growth is largely driven by the duties in the areas where the anti-dumping has taken effect. We also saw in the first quarter, as I mentioned in the prepared comments, North America and Europe was up significantly. Again, Europe was driven by largely the duties, but North America's volume has picked up as it had seasonally. So it was a good move in North America. Still seeing some competitive activity in Latin America, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. But as we get into the second half of the year, we are still anticipating to see that growth on the TIO2 demand in the regions I just referenced.

Very helpful. Thank you. And then just as a follow-up, could you share the average utilization rate that you're currently running at and expect to run at for 2025 across your TIO2 production footprint, excluding the Botlik plant?

Yeah, so historically, I think what we've been indicating as our operating rates were north of 80%, and with the closure of the Botlik plant, we would expect to continue to run at or above those rates. As the market continues to pick up, You know, we'll continue running rates higher than that. And obviously, we've spent some time preparing for the Botlik outage, knowing that that plant was going to close. We've repositioned inventories to be sure that we can fill the needs of the European market from other plants.

Thanks very much.

Thank you. Just as a reminder, if you are participating in Q&A and have joined via webinar, please use the raise hand icon, which can be found at the bottom of your webinar application screen. If you are participating in Q&A and have joined via phone, please press star nine on your keypad to raise your hand. When you are called on, you will be prompted to unmute your line and ask your question. If you have joined via phone, please dial star six to unmute yourself. Our next question comes from Joshua Spector at UBS Securities. Joshua, please unmute your line and ask your question.

Hey, guys. This is James Cannon. I'm for Josh. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to poke on the European growth you saw in the quarter. Can you size what that looked like?

Not in percentage basis, but it was double what we would normally see with regards to growth from Q4 to Q1. It was a significant jump.

Okay, thank you. And then just as a follow-up to that, as we think about the investigations going on in India and Brazil, knowing that Europe is a much bigger region, can you size the expectations that you have for maybe the share opportunity that you can recapture once those come into place?

Yeah, sure. So let's go back and take a look at what was historically being exported into the European market from China. And it was call it 270,000 ish tons a year. And so you've seen the lift and we're getting our share of the growth as China has pulled back on their exports into that region. So India is a 450,000 ton per year market. And at this particular stage, trailing 12 months, the Chinese have been exporting north of 300,000 tons of TiO2 into that region. There's not a significant amount of production there. That is the second largest market that we sell into globally. And we do have a bit of an advantage in that we've got a free trade agreement out of Australia. So when you think about the potential lift from from the Indian anti-dumping activities, we would expect that to be at or maybe slightly above the magnitude of what we're seeing in Europe.

Okay. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Frank Mitch. Frank, please unmute your line and ask your question.

Hi, guys. Good morning. It's Azizan for Frank. I had a question on Zircon. Can you guys just elaborate further on what you're seeing in the Zircon markets and what might revive that market?

Yeah, thanks, Aziza. So maybe we had to go back and look a little bit about when we think about the year-over-year number. So year-over-year last year, first quarter of 2024, we saw a significant increase in the volume on Zircon, not dissimilar to the larger increase we saw last year on TIO2 on the assumption that the market was starting to recover. So we saw a lot of volume being bought forward, I would say, in the first quarter. So we had a very strong first half on Zircon. And the second half of the year was weaker. When we look at what we're seeing this year, it's more of a, I'd say, measured growth with regards to what we're seeing year over year. So we're not expecting a significant growth, 24 over 25. It's only about 5%. But what we're seeing in the first quarter is more historically what we would see. Again, there's Chinese New Year, which typically has an impact because China is a market for us. That is the one market that has not recovered significantly. So it's still the area where it got the most opportunity. So I would say we'd be more of a balanced move quarter by quarter for the rest of the year. And annual growth is not significant over last year. It's only 5%.

Got it, thank you. And following the Botlik news and looking across your network today, are there any other sites that you might be assessing for idling or possibly reducing rates of production?

So at this particular stage, as I mentioned, we've been preparing for the closure of Botlik for a little while. So I'm repositioning some inventory to make sure that we have inventory as we expect Europe to continue to be strong due to the anti-dumping efforts. The decision to close the Botlik was a difficult decision. And it was one that we're obviously looking at our asset footprint constantly and evaluating that at this particular stage. We don't have any plans to close any additional plants. We think we've got the right asset footprint. When we think about the vertical integration, you know, vertical integration is also a very important part of our strategy. And we'll continue to look at what the right level of vertical integration is along with working proactively and collaboratively with our suppliers that continue to supply us with some feedstock to supplement that vertical integration.

And I think, Aziza, our focus right now following the BATLIC decision is to focus on things within our control and focus on our cost. So it's making all of our assets competitive. And while the market, we don't control that and things could change, I think that's our focus right now versus looking at other facilities We do expect that our plants generally are in the better half of the cost curve and that if there's things that will change in the market should be the higher costs, you know, Chinese plants and some of the other Western competitors that are more fourth quartile.

Great. Thank you, guys.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Caleb Boneleen from BMO Capital Markets. Caleb, please unmute your line and ask your question.

Hey, good morning. This is Caleb on for John. With the botlet closure, can you help us understand how that impacts your ability to work down inventory levels and then drive free cash flow?

Yeah, Caleb, we do expect to generate significant amount of cash from the Botlik shutdown. As John mentioned, we did build inventory late last year and in the first quarter in anticipation of that shutdown as we want to make sure that we provide continued service to our customers in Europe. With that being said, with Botlik going down, we do expect to draw down that inventory over time and service that from our other pigment plants. Inventory should go down sheerly because volumes are going down, but also leveraging that fixed cost infrastructure by producing more in other plants, our cost per ton should go down.

I mean, between now and also between now and the end of the year, without the Bollock plant, we will produce less tons. So we will be drawing down inventory that had been built previously in anticipation of the closure.

Okay, thank you. And then just on the 50 to 60 million of higher costs you're expecting, are you expecting to get any benefit of that at all in the second half of the year because Fairbreeze is slated for commissioning in July, or is that all just going to be relief that you're expecting in 2026?

Yeah, the 50 to 60 million of hurt in this year, the majority of that is in the first half. We're seeing the majority of the hurt in the first half of this year.

And again, when you think about that, that's a bridge from these lower ore bodies into mining into moving into the higher ore bodies. So we'll see, because Fairbreeze is going to be commissioned earlier than East OFS, some of that benefit will come in the latter part of the year, but we will see some benefit from that. And then obviously with East OFS coming online in November, a bigger portion of that rolls into full year 2026. Okay, thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews at Morgan Stanley. Vincent, please unmute your line and ask your question.

Hi, this is Justin on for Vincent. You had called out the expected production costs where your production costs were higher than expected, partially because the lower operating rates at Botlik, but also increases in direct material costs. You expected improved production costs in your full year outlook. So can you just help us bridge from the weaker 1Q to the full year improvement? Is that mostly going to be

you know better fixed cost absorption from other plants as you you know wind down botlik or is that going to be a reversal in uh the the cost that uh the direct material prices that you that you mentioned thank you yeah so from a cost perspective as we mentioned the second half is going to be improved from the first half and it is a big portion of that is our pigment costs improving a lot of it relates just to running the plants better resulting in less lower less lcms and idle facilities We are being helped as you would expect from shutting down the potluck plant, which is our highest cost plant before we shut it down. And obviously leveraging the fixed cost infrastructure as we move those tons to other plants, lowering our cost per ton. I mentioned the mining headwinds, 50 to 60 million. The majority of that is in the first half, so you'll see a benefit in the second half of the year from that cost. Then generally, you're aware of our cost improvement program that we launched last quarter. We're working hard and seeing results, improvements already, but those actions will ramp up and see more savings in the second half of the year. All of that is driving our statement that we expect the second half to be more robust than the first half from a cost perspective.

And if you'll remember from the last call, we indicated it's $125 to $175 million in that cost reduction program, and we were targeting $25 to $35 million run rate by the end of 2026. And as we mentioned in the prepared comments, we've already made some progress on SG&A, and we're making progress from an operating perspective too. Every one of our sites has a prescriptive reduction plan in place, and we're making good progress on that. So there is an element of back half of the year where we'll start to see some of those costs roll through the volume as well.

Wonderful. Thank you for the time.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Leathead from Barclays. Mike, please unmute your line and ask your question.

Great. Thanks. Good morning, guys. I wanted to ask a question on the outlook. I think you had mentioned as part of the second half some additional benefits in India and Brazil if anti-dumping duty measures are finalized. So can you just remind us kind of what your expectations are there and what you're making into guidance in regards to that?

Yeah. So with regards to India, I'd say it's probably the biggest opportunity for us because that is our second largest market that we sell into. And it's one that is, it's the largest market, 450,000 tons a year, largely with 300,000 tons of Chinese material being supplied into that market. So that's a sizable portion of that opportunity. And then when Brazil, we have the only production facility in Brazil. Brazil's 180,000 ton per year market, approximately 100,000 tons annualized were being supplied by China. We've already seen some benefits of that. So if you remember, provisional duties had already gone into place and we'd saw some lift. There was an end to the provisional duties on April 21st. And while the trade agency over there finalizes those numbers. There's about a 60-day window where duties are lifted. So the June timeframe, end of June, early July is when we'll start to see those duties go back into effect and we'll start to see that lift. And we're making sure that we're positioning ourselves to not only supply material from the Hamilton we have, the facility we have in Brazil, but supplying the demand from our facilities in Yambu and North America as well. So those are the two areas where we see the additional lift as well as continuing to see progress in Europe from the duties that are already in place.

Great. That's super helpful. And then just a question on the cash flow trying to bridge to the greater than 50 million now. Obviously, CapEx comes down 15. But then when I just think about the But like net impact, I guess I'm getting at roughly 80, 85 million of cash restructuring costs or restructuring costs, which I guess gets to around 70, 75 million of working capital benefit. Is that roughly in the right ballpark or I'm just trying to.

make sure I have the moving pieces there. Yeah, I think taking a look at our guide of greater than 50 million of free cash flow. Obviously, we maintained our range on EBITDA of 525 to 625. Cash interest was up a bit from last at 145 million as we've drawn a little bit more on our facilities. Cash tax is expected to be the same at less than 10 million. And we increased our guide on working capital from being negative 70 to flattish to being a source of cash in all scenarios. And as you mentioned, CapEx was lower to $365 million from the range of $375 to $395 million. So with free cash flow being greater than $50 million in all scenarios, I think your math is roughly correct on how Botlik is impacting us. Great. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Roger Spitz at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Roger, please dial star six to unmute your line and ask your question.

Thank you. Hopefully you can hear me. First question is, is botlic idling, is that being kept warm or is that a cold shutdown? And related, how hard is it to restart a chloride-positive TO2 plant that has been in a cold shut for a year or more?

Yeah, so at this particular stage, there's no plan to restart that asset. And I would say, you know, normally when chloride plants are closed down for long periods of time, they're not restarted. So it's not our plan to restart the asset. We're, again, working through that process at this particular stage. But at this particular stage, there's no plan to restart the asset. We're winding the asset down.

Got it. And then I don't know if this is something you might provide us, but I'm wondering how much is your 2024 mining costs as opposed to your pigment costs? Or if you don't want to give that detail, is it possible to break down your cogs between mineral sands mining and pigment operations?

Yeah, I mean, it's really, we look at it from an integrated basis and we don't really split out those numbers at this point.

Understood. Thank you very much.

Thank you so much. Our next question comes from Hassan Ahmed at Alembic Global Advisors. Hassan, please dial star six to unmute yourself and ask your question.

Morning, John. Hopefully you guys can hear me okay. You know, just wanted to revisit, thanks so much. So just wanted to revisit the sort of bunch of questions about the full year guidance. I mean, if I am understanding what you guys said correctly, you know, particularly as it pertains to the second half being stronger than the first half, you know, part of it is predicated on sort of lower cost tons because of the shutdown of Botlik. Part of it is, you know, the cost-cutting program sort of getting into effect. But if I heard correctly, you guys also mentioned, you know, gaining pricing momentum. So I'm just trying to sort of reconcile that, that historically, obviously, as we move away from the seasonally strong time period, you know, which tends to be the Colette spring-summer time period, it gets harder and harder for the industry to get that pricing. So I'm just trying to assess... You know, what gives you that comfort level that you will indeed get that pricing in the second half?

Thanks, Hasan. It's a great question. And we didn't talk too much in prepared comments about what's going on in the second quarter because we provide guidance for the full year. But we are getting price in Europe. So when we think about our second quarter, historically, you go eight quarters with the continual price erosion, one to 2% a quarter, it takes a little bit of time to get traction on a price increase. And we did announce a price increase in Europe in the second quarter, and we have successfully implemented a portion of that. So when we think about our second quarter price, there's still some competitive activity in other regions. So there's puts and takes on where we are on price, but I would say our price will be flat to slightly up this quarter, depending upon how we manage some of this competitive activity. But we are getting pricing in Europe. And when we think about, is that a demand profile increase? No, that's due to a shift in the supply base. So we're making progress. And as we start to look into the back half of the year and some of these other areas where We've got opportunities for duties to go into place. We're not talking about a significant amount of pricing, but we are talking about pricing opportunities.

And Hassan, maybe if I can answer your question on pricing, but the one thing I just wanted to make sure you had on your list on costs was the mining costs, the 50 to 60 million, as I mentioned in the Q&A earlier, the majority of that cost is hitting us in the first half of the year. So you'll see Q2 be a little bit more pressure than the second half of the year. from that as well as, you know, the mining, the production costs from bot life. And obviously they usually hit us a quarter later. So we'll see a hurt in Q2 from that announcement.

Very helpful. And as a follow-up on the anti-dumping side of things, I just want you to get a bit more granular about what's going on over there. I mean, look, first of all, maybe it's a two-part thing. So first, you know, historically you guys have talked about you know, for lack of a better word, the opportunity being, you know, between, call it Saudi Arabia, the EU, Brazil and India, being somewhere north of around 600,000 tons. So the first part of the question is, is that still the case? Are you still sort of seeing it as being that sort of global opportunity? And then the second part of that question is just on the ground, what are you guys seeing? Meaning, Are you sort of, as you're talking to your customers, particularly in countries where these anti-dumping measures are going into effect, are the conversations you're having with them sort of more along the lines of them actually wanting more material from you guys? Are you getting more inbound requests now from customers that were, you know, sort of taking their business elsewhere? I mean, are you actually seeing that market share gain or indications of that, you know, as these conversations continue?

Yeah, so for sure in Europe, that's happening. We are picking, we're regaining share where we had lost it to the Chinese historically because those duties are already in place. And when you think about sizing the opportunity, so again, we're not assuming that China's gonna completely vacate Europe. They're still supplying there. They're about half where they were. And we would expect that to continue to trickle down. But our assumptions aren't that they're going to completely abandon that market, that we're going to get a fair share of what's the opportunity. So, again, we saw a significant move in the first quarter that's migrating into the second quarter. So, again, we're building on what's already happened in Europe and in India. specifically that those duties are not in place yet. So are we getting, having the discussions with the customers on the assumptions that they are going to go in? And again, I mentioned that we should have definitive answer by the third week of May on those duties. And we're pretty confident that they're going to go in. So there's a lot of movement there. Now, obviously China is positioning to get as much in as possible. So all that's factored in, but again, we're not assuming that China is going to stop selling in India either. So again, Even if they pulled back half of that volume, again, when we think about our footprint there, the strategic advantage we have from shipping from Australia with a 10% duty advantage due to that free trade agreement, we feel we have a good opportunity to increase our volume there. And that's factored into the build in the second half. Brazil, we're the only producer in Brazil. Our plant in Brazil is, you know, meeting our customer demands as they are today. And as the duties go back into effect, we'll start to supplement demand into Brazil out of our facilities in Yambu and South and North America. And I mentioned Yambu and North America. A lot of that has to do with just freight rates. Sometimes it's depending upon which location it's easier and more cost-effective for us to reposition volume into the Latin American market.

Very helpful, John. Thank you so much.

Thank you. Just as a reminder, if you're participating in the Q&A and have joined in via webinar, please use the raise hand icon, which can be found at the bottom of your webinar application screen. As a reminder, if you're participating in Q&A and have joined in via phone, please press star nine on your keypad to raise your hand. When you're called on, you'll be prompted to unmute your line and ask your question. If you have joined via phone, please dial star six to unmute yourself. Our next question comes from Peter Osterland from Troost Securities. Peter, please dial star six to unmute yourself and ask your question.

Hey, thanks for taking the follow-up. So I just wanted to ask a couple of questions on CapEx. First, just wanted to clarify the reduction to the CapEx guidance, was that related to Botlik or are the mining projects shaping up to be less capital intensive than you thought? What drove that reduction?

About half of that reduction related to Botlik.

And then, you know, the other half is just us managing projects that we need to look at the end of the day, we're trying to manage our cashflow and we have a target of 50 million positive free cashflow this year. So we're managing some of the projects that can better has, I mean, the short answer is has nothing to do with South Africa. South Africa projects are largely migrating to the end. We're on budget on track. So these were some of the other opportunities on capital that we can move from one year to the next, but it's not like the capital is going to be eliminated. We'll continue to evaluate it, but we are shifting some of that into 2026.

Got it. Thanks. And then just as a follow-up there, I guess after closing Botlik and finishing the mining projects and any other improvements you're making with optimizing your remaining asset footprint, What does a normalized annual CapEx number look like for Tronox?

Yeah, I think if you look at a normalized level, we still are in the 250 to 300 longer term once we're through the mining projects.

And remember, we've spoken a lot about South Africa, but we're still... Adam, we still have a mining extension with Campaspe in Australia. So that's another piece that will continue into 2026. And after 2026, we'll be running at the lower rates that John just referenced.

Great. Thanks very much.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Aaron Rosenthal at J.P. Morgan. Aaron, please unmute your line and ask your question.

Hey, can y'all hear me all right? Yes, sir. Okay, great. I think just earlier you had mentioned the uplift quarter over quarter in Europe was about 2x what you had seen historically from 4Q to 1Q. Is that comment based on a look back from maybe just the last couple of years, or is that maybe a 10-year average look back with respect to seasonality? And then as we think about 2Q, is the magnitude of that uplift into 2Q on par with that, or how should we think about the growth sequentially?

So The growth from Q4 to Q1 was abnormal. So it's not even, you can't, there's been no quarter where we had Q4 to Q1 that was that large. So it had everything that was very much focused on us picking back up share as the duties went into a place early in June and July. I mean, January, sorry about that. And we're seeing more of a, I'd say, a bit more of a normal increase, but still heavier in the second quarter in Europe as well. So again, it's not as if, I think we've started to see growth in the volume as we pick up some of that share, but we still have room to go. So the second quarter, although the growth is significant, it's not as big of a leap as it was before. from Q4 to Q1, but we're still seeing growth quarter over quarter Q1 to Q2.

Okay, that's fair. And then I may have missed this, but with, you know, with Botluck winding down and it sounds like you're positioning some of the Australia assets for growth in India, and it sounds like you'll be meeting some of that volumetric need from inventory, but can we get a sense of how long that tail is on those volumes and then And from that point on, are you backfilling volumes from the UK plan or I guess which plants in your network will those volumes eventually flow from?

Yeah, and we expect to be able to service the shutdown from Bot Lake immediately. I mean, we did, as we mentioned, build inventory and moved inventory towards the end of last year and in the first quarter of this year. So we think we're well-positioned to service our customers. Going forward, as we mentioned, we can service all those volumes from other facilities. which includes those in Europe and Australia and in Saudi Arabia, primarily.

And I think it's important to realize, I mean, even with where we are today, we're not back to what we would call normalized society. you know, growth as far as demand goes. We're not talking about targeting, you know, COVID levels, but there's still some opportunity for this market to recover. And, you know, we started to see that recovery in the first half of the year and it kind of trickled out in the second half of the year. We've seen some growth in the first half of the year. There's lots of puts and takes on it, but there's opportunity. And when that opportunity actually happens, we'll have the ability to run our assets at higher rates too. We're not running our other assets globally. at 100% of capacity utilization. So as the demand picks up, we'll be able to increase our capacity from the other assets. All the work that we're doing around technology and innovation to try to get more out of those assets will help us with fixed cost absorption and will be another lift as we start to think about our cost improvement plan. That being said, the $125 to $175 million of cost, that's not volume related. Those are things that we're doing to sustainably adjust our cost from an operational perspective and through every portion of the business. Great. Thank you.

Perfect. Thank you so much. Our next question comes from John Roberts. John, please pause. dial star six and unmute your line.

Can you hear me now?

Yes, we can.

Hello? Yeah, sorry. Rare earths are back in the news again. You once had a project to extract rare earths from your tailings. Does that come back into play?

John, that project is still a work in progress for us. In Australia, we have been in the process of doing pre-feasibility studies on a facility there in Australia to extract more value out of that. As we mentioned in the prepared comments, rare earth is still a part of our strategy. It's part of the co-products that we get from our mining assets. And we'll continue to get value out of that. And clearly with the focus on rare earths coming from the government, there's a lot of renewed activity. And I would say that we're right in the middle of that.

Have you seen any idling capacity in China yet?

It's, I would say, yes. We've seen some plants pull back and like when John mentioned sulfur prices had gone up 40%, you know, that was largely focused on Europe, I mean, China. And we have an asset over there. So we have a very good window on what's happening in China because we have an asset. It's not a large one. China is only 5% of our volume globally. And the majority of what we produce there, we sell in China. But I think that there has been some move, long-term closing of sulfate plants. I wouldn't say there's been a lot yet, but there's been other reductions in volume. And I think it's important to kind of look at that. Normally when you go through a downturn, you'll get to the bottom of the downturn and the market recovers before you see a lot of assets close. This market's been a lot different than that. The tail has been much longer. We continually say that although the tail's been long, definitively, we can say the market will recover. There's been no paradigm shift. But there's been a lot more assets that have closed. We closed a plant. Most of our Western competitors have closed plants. Either one or multiple plants. There's two Japanese plants that have been outlined as closing to 80,000 ton sulfate facilities in late in 25 and early in 26. So as the market recovers, it's not only China's volume, that could be impacted. It's the overall volume that won't be available to supply the demand. So again, we're not looking for a demand to recover back to where we were in 2021, but getting back to 2019 levels, we believe is very doable and there'll be a smaller base to support it, which would help with our margins.

Thank you.

Thank you so much. This concludes the Q&A portion of the webcast. I will now turn the call back over to John Romano for closing remarks. Thank you.

Thank you for that. But there's a lot of variables that we're working with at this particular stage. And the tariffs, as we mentioned earlier, have not had a significant impact on our business. But we're going to continue to evaluate that over time. And hopefully some of that will abate and we'll see some upside from that. As we mentioned, it's only a $5 million tailwind from us at maximum. And that includes everything that we've seen at this particular stage. I think it's important for you to realize and remember that we are focused on the things that we can control. There's some things that are out of our control, but we can control our cost, improving our production, delivering on that cost improvement program, and focusing on improving our cash generation to ensure we hit that $50 million cash target for the year. So thank you very much. Appreciate your time.