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spk07: Good day and welcome to the TransUnion 2023 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on a touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Aaron Hoffman, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
spk02: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending today. Joining me on the call are Chris Cartwright, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Todd Sello, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We posted our earnings release and slides to accompany this call on the TransUnion Investor Relations website this morning. Our earnings release and the accompanying slides include various schedules, which contain more detailed information about revenue, operating expenses, and other items, as well as certain non-GAAP disclosures and financial measures, along with the corresponding reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures. Today's call will be recorded and a replay will be available on our website. We will also be making statements during this call that are forward-looking. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements because of factors discussed in today's earnings release, in the comments made during this conference call, and in our most recent Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q, and other reports and filings with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement. With that, let me turn the time over to Chris.
spk14: Thanks, Aaron. And let me add my welcome and share our agenda for the call this morning. First, I'll discuss the macroeconomic conditions in TransUnion's markets around the world. Then I'll provide an overview of our strong first quarter financial performance. I'll also review the continued progress with NuSTAR to accelerate revenue growth, achieve target savings, and leverage its technologies across the enterprise. Finally, Todd will detail our first quarter results along with our second quarter and full year guidance. Inflation in our developed markets around the world remains elevated, although with signs of subsiding as central banks have raised interest rates to slow consumer demand and return to long-term inflation targets. Higher prices and higher rates have pressured consumer finances, and economic growth has slowed as a result. However, thus far, developing economies have been less impacted by these factors. Lending volumes in our emerging markets of India, Asia Pacific, South Africa, and LATAM have remained strong. In the U.S., consumers remain healthy relative to historical norms with modest spending growth, high employment levels, and some real wage increases. Credit performance metrics have continued to normalize and remain within the range of pre-pandemic and historical levels. Against this backdrop, we've seen increased caution from banks. While their financials are still strong and consumer demand for credit is healthy, banks are concerned that their markets might slow further and as a result have tightened lending standards, reduced marketing and originations, and increased loss reserves. Thus far, we've seen some limited impact on our business from these changing conditions. However, like our customers, we remain cautious about the rest of 2023. And I note that the recent failure of a few lenders should not cause the lending system to contract materially. We are confident that even if certain institutions slow their pace of origination, other lenders will take advantage of the situation to garner new business and satisfy strong consumer demand. And given this confluence of concerns, and despite our outperformance in the first quarter, we will maintain our full year guidance at this point to account for market uncertainties. Todd will walk you through the details later of our second quarter and full year guidance and expectations for each of our markets and verticals. Now turning to first quarter highlights, we beat our guidance on revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted diluted earnings per share. Our financial services vertical performed slightly ahead of our expectations, down 1% organically and flat, excluding the impact of mortgage. Auto lending increased due to the easing of supply chain constraints and strong new business winds. Card was flat, despite comparing to continued very strong originations for over a year. Although consumer lending declined, it also faced challenging comparisons over exceptional growth last year. And mortgage was down mid-single digits, but better than expected. U.S. emerging verticals delivered moderate growth, in line with our expectations, given the comparison to strong year-ago performance. Importantly, we've seen early signs that the temporary issues we faced in tenant and employment screening and insurance are abating, setting us up for a good full year. Our international segment again grew constant currency revenue by double digits for the eighth consecutive quarter, led by 32% growth in India and double-digit growth in Asia Pacific, Africa, and Latin America. We continue to outperform our underlying markets as a result of strong lending growth, market share gains, and our successful innovation. As I'll detail in a moment, we had another good quarter integrating NuStar and continue to see strong customer adoption of our platforms and solutions. Finally, we continue to point our free cash flow toward reducing our debt levels. And in the first quarter, we prepaid $75 million of debt with intent to make additional prepayments in the second quarter and the second half of the year. Now, Newstart delivered 3% revenue growth, largely in line with our expectations as we compared against last year's strongest growth quarter. For the full year, we continue to expect high single-digit revenue growth at a 32% margin fueled by the revenue growth and achieving our aggressive integration cost savings. We have line of sight to the revenue growth based on our strong bookings and the momentum achieved by joint sales teams aligned by our market verticals. We also enjoy a favorable portfolio effect from the broad range of NuSTAR solutions. Our customers are challenged by compliance with privacy and regulatory requirements and also increasing focus on cost management and vendor consolidation, all of which play to our strength as a scaled platform provider of identity-based solutions. Our solutions are highly relevant regardless of the macro backdrop as we help customers unlock value in their first-party data, reach consumers in a cost-effective manner, measure the return on their marketing investment, mitigate fraud, and improve communication effectiveness. We see this relevance playing out with meaningful new business wins across our verticals, including a top 10 traditional lender, a large fintech player, a major auto manufacturer, and a large used vehicle retailer. Now, this next slide illustrates the key NuSTAR integration and innovation initiatives. We've made significant progress on each with meaningful paths to deliver more value as we complete each initiative. As we execute our plan, we've identified substantial incremental opportunities for cost reduction and commercial success. On previous calls, we've shared important progress on many of these initiatives. Infrastructure savings have been driven by data consolidation, rather data center consolidation, and the migration of NuSTAR cloud computing to the Google Cloud, which supports improved performance at a lower cost. This enables a stronger cybersecurity stance, the opportunity to eliminate redundant tools, and cost savings. We've also made meaningful progress and are already seeing valuable lift and cost savings from combining TransUnion and NuSTAR data. Underlying the integration of NuSTAR is the combination of its data assets with TU's. Bringing our data together on a common tech platform has given us 15% greater coverage of all adults in the US, a 10% increase in email coverage, and a 15% improvement in telephone number coverage. At the same time, by bringing more data sets in-house, we're realizing cost reductions and superior performance. Work is underway to bring together additional data sets like offline household data, real-time digital interactions, and phone signals, which should yield incremental uplift in performance when we complete this year. Importantly, all of our U.S. verticals and all product types benefit from these improvements. Greater value in our data assets is achieved by connecting them into a more complete and powerful identity graph, where each company previously had its own identity graph per product We now have one that performs considerably better. With this work well underway, we're beginning to deploy this single identity graph across all products. I'll offer you some compelling examples in a minute. At the same time, bringing all of our data together is just the start. Underpinning all of this progress is a single enterprise data and analytics platform, OneID. We benefit from improved data ingestion speeds and the ability to quickly link and match the data. We can also deliver superior analytics rapidly to our customers. This is all done in a highly privacy compliant manner to support both regulatory and customer specific requirements. From there, we've made progress in expanding and improving our customer data analytics enablement. We're migrating the Proma platform onto OneID, where it will combine with NuSTAR's Cleanroom functionality to create the next generation of advanced analytic capabilities. All of this work has allowed us to consolidate products into integrated platforms, like the True Audience Marketplace, enhanced call center capabilities, and the combination of all of our best-in-class fraud solutions. So let me spend some time on the significant progress we've made in aligning relevant TU and NuSTAR platforms. In the first quarter, we announced a key milestone in the integration of NuSTAR with the launch of True Audience Marketplace. We married the expansive consumer data and identity resolution, audience building, and targeting capabilities of TU and NuSTAR into a comprehensive and interoperable site of privacy enhanced marketing solutions. Additionally, the product suite now offers closed loop marketing measurement and attribution and credit informed marketing solutions, which weren't previously available. True Audience enables clients to improve marketing effectiveness by increasing audience reach, improving the quality of consumer insights and leveraging more accurate and up-to-date identity data across all marketing and measurement activities. Clients have reported seeing a 40% reduction in duplicate CRM records and a 30% increase in conversions from higher performing audiences. True Audience now leverages the proprietary data ecosystems of TU and NuSTAR, spanning 200 authoritative data sources including data from over 16 billion monthly phone signals, offline consumer data covering over 125 billion U.S. households, and data spanning 10 billion real-time digital interactions daily. Additionally, True Audience combines TransUnion's direct media and technology partnerships across the television and streaming media world with NuSTAR's integrations across the walled garden and digital media ecosystem to ensure clients can reach and measure consumers across the channels that matter most. This includes partnerships with over 250 leading media owners and publisher networks and more than a hundred advertising data management and cloud providers, as well as social and retail media platforms, ad servers, demand side and sell side platforms, and customer data platforms. In communications, Our innovative family of trusted call solutions, which includes branded call display and caller name optimization, continues to provide differentiated growth. While landline caller ID continues to decline, we are more than offsetting that headwind with considerable growth in TCS, which delivered a very strong first quarter and is expected to grow almost 50% in 2023. In the first quarter, we onboarded one of the largest retailers in the US to our trusted call suite. A key part of the growth is the expansion of branded call display, which should triple in size this year and then represent about half of all TCS revenue. We're in the early days of penetrating the market with branded call, but we are scaling rapidly. We quadrupled the number of customers using this solution over the past year. In addition to the impressive TCS growth, we continue to realize considerable cross-sell revenue from call center solutions, most notably with financial services and insurance customers. Further, we are creating a blended phone append that will lead to best-in-class right-party contact solutions, leveraging our contact center and specialized risk data assets. And in fraud, We continue to push toward the completion of a single integrated platform that marries all of our best-in-class solutions, including those acquired from NuSTAR. Early testing has shown substantial lift in match rates, reduction in false positives, and an increase in identification of fraudulent activity driven through the combination of TU and NuSTAR data. We expect to have this fully formed offering in market by the end of this year. Just as we've integrated and redefined our solutions, we also announced an important rebranding of our global business solutions. We organized thousands of existing B2B products and dozens of brands into seven solution lines globally, defined by business need and unified by a promise to deliver a true picture of consumers. a robust, multi-layered, and actionable view of each person, stewarded with care. You'll find explanations of each of the new brands on this slide. DU's rebranding clarifies our product offerings and better demonstrates our expertise in our heritage and new markets, while also making it easier for customers to find what they need. After almost 20 acquisitions in the last decade, This rebranding is a logical step in the company's evolution. We can now offer more powerful consumer insights than ever before, allowing us to meet the needs of our customers in more ways and at a much deeper level. I want to conclude by noting that we recently published our annual sustainability and diversity reports, which can be found on our investor relations website. In both cases, You will find expanded disclosure and meaningful progress against important topics like diversity representation among our associates and more comprehensive ESG reporting. I encourage all of our investors to read these important documents. As a reflection of our progress, Newsweek recently named TransUnion one of the 500 most responsible companies. That wraps up my comments on our market conditions, first quarter performance, progress in integrating NewSTAR, our global rebanding, and our ongoing commitment to diversity in ESG. Now, Todd will provide you with further details on our first quarter financial results, second quarter outlook, and the full year 2023 outlook. Over to you, Todd.
spk16: Thanks, Chris, and let me add my welcome to everyone. I'll start off with our consolidated financial results. First quarter consolidated revenue increased 2% on both the reported and organic constant currency basis. Argus added about two points to inorganic revenue while foreign exchange was a two point headwind. Our business grew 2% on an organic constant currency basis, excluding mortgage from both the first quarter of 2022 and 2023. Adjusted EBITDA declined 4% on a reported basis and was flat on an organic constant currency basis. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 34.3%, down 200 basis points compared to the year-ago quarter as we had expected. Excluding the impact of Argus, our organic constant currency adjusted EBITDA margin was 35.4%, or down about 90 basis points year-over-year. First quarter, adjusted diluted EPS declined 13% as a result of lower adjusted EBITDA and higher interest expense. Before I get into U.S. markets results, a reminder that we are now reporting NewSTAR within our vertical market structure to drive accountability and internal reporting clarity, and we will discontinue providing stand-alone NewSTAR reporting at the end of 2023. Now, looking at segment financial performance for the first quarter, U.S. markets revenue was up 3% compared to the year-ago quarter. Organic revenue was flat in the quarter and was up 1% excluding mortgage. Adjusted EBITDA for U.S. markets declined 8% on an as-reported basis and declined 6% on an organic basis. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 32.2% or 33.9% on an organic basis. Financial services revenue grew 5% as reported and was down 1% organically, excluding Argus. Including mortgage, organic revenue growth was flat despite comparing to a 21% growth rate in the first quarter of 2022, implying a 10% two-year growth CAGR. Looking at the individual end markets, consumer lending revenue declined low double digits against a mid-30s growth rate in the year-ago quarter. As expected, lenders are pulling back and investors continue to be selective, but activity remains solid relative to historical levels, particularly in the BNPL space where we continue to see strong activity and new entrants. We are in an advantaged position to focus on strategically extending and expanding existing relationships. The breadth of offerings that we can provide allows us to further penetrate existing accounts with solutions like fraud mitigation, marketing, call center management, and advanced analytic capabilities. Many of these capabilities are the result of recent acquisitions, especially NuStar. Our credit card business was flat against mid-20s growth in the prior year quarter. Issuers continue to market with a focus on gaining top of wallet share with consumers, helping to drive origination activity. We are also benefiting from our relationships with larger firms that are aggressively utilizing digital marketing. Our auto business delivered 8% growth in the quarter on the strength of continued share gains, strong pre-qualification volumes, the impact of cross-selling New Star Marketing and Call Center solutions in addition to improving market conditions. For mortgage, revenue is down only 6% in the quarter despite origination volumes falling about 47%. The volume declines were offset by pricing, strong HELOC, and marketing activity. At this point, refinancing activity is almost nonexistent while the purchase market has maintained decent origination levels and been helped by recent, so modest, declines in mortgage rates. On a trailing 12-month basis, mortgage represented about 6% of total TransUnion revenue. For 2023, we now expect the inquiry market to be down roughly 20% and our revenue to increase in the mid-20s. In addition to slightly improved volume expectations, we are seeing a higher share of volume from smaller end-user customers, which are facing higher third-party pricing markups this year. Let me now turn to our emerging verticals, which grew 1% in the quarter despite a tough year-ago comparison. Insurance delivered another good quarter. Importantly, we are seeing carriers receive approval for rate increases and beginning to pass those increased prices to consumers, which is driving a recovery in shopping activity. At this point, insurers have largely limited their marketing activity to brand-oriented campaigns and have yet to substantially reactivate personalized marketing to drive new applications. We remain confident that this recovery will come to fruition over the course of the year and improve the already attractive growth for our insurance vertical. Tenant and employment screening growth again improved as a result of early signs of a recovery in the tenant market with month-over-month declines in rental rates, increases in move rates, and an increasing supply of rental units as new construction comes online. This growth was somewhat offset by a softer employment screening market as employers take a more cautious approach to hiring. Our media vertical declined in the quarter as a result of some market softness. Despite that, based on the new business wins we've achieved, we continue to expect the vertical to deliver growth for the full year. Consumer Interactive revenue declined 5%. Adjusted EBITDA margins were 49.2%, up 310 basis points as a result of reduced advertising spending. Our direct business continues to decline as we recalibrate our marketing approach to focus on higher value consumers. Thus far, we're seeing good returns on the revamped tactics with better than expected customer acquisition stats at attractive costs to acquire. In our indirect business, we grew in the first quarter on the strength of new business wins and a modest improvement with some of our partners that offer paid monitoring. Importantly, we continue to make progress fully integrating Sontic into our global operating model, which we believe will facilitate increased cross-sell opportunities with existing customers and continue to provide us differentiated features in the market. For my comments about international, all growth comparisons will be in constant currency. For the total segment, revenue grew 12%, with four of our six reported markets growing by double digits. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 43.6% up 80 basis points as a result of our strong revenue growth. Now let's dig into the specifics for each region. In the UK, revenue declined 8%. Excluding the revenue related to one-time contracts, including with the UK government, we would have grown about 2% in the quarter despite a challenging macro environment. We continue to see strong demand for consumer loans and large banks staying active to satisfy this demand. At the same time, we have seen good performance for our affordability and trended credit solutions to help lenders assess portfolio risk. Our Canadian business grew 9% in the first quarter, driven by material business wins with a large bank, a major fintech lender, and deepening credit use case in adjacent markets, which contributed to offset a generally softer demand for consumer credit. In India, we grew 32%, reflecting strong market trends and generally healthy consumers. The diversity of our portfolio remains a real strength in India. We saw meaningful growth in both consumer and commercial credit markets, as well as from fraud, employment screening, and direct-to-consumer offerings. In Latin America, revenue was up 11% with broad-based growth across our markets, including another quarter of double-digit growth for our largest market, Colombia. While macro conditions have softened in the region, our teams continue to win new business and financial services, particularly with fintechs and neobanks, insurance, government, and telcos. We also continue to see strong adoption of credit vision and our fraud solutions. In Asia Pacific, we grew 25% from continued good performance in Hong Kong, driven by new business with FinTech players and exceptional growth in the Philippines, which is now running well ahead of pre-COVID levels as the economy has now fully reemerged from COVID and resumed its strong growth trajectory. Finally, Africa increased 14% based on broadly strong performance across the portfolio and the region, despite a challenging environment in several of our largest markets. In South Africa, core business growth was augmented by continued strength in fast-growing verticals like telco and gaming. Outside of South Africa, we continue to see very strong revenue growth in markets like Kenya and Zambia, particularly with micro and FinTech lenders. We ended the quarter with roughly $5.6 billion of debt after prepaying $75 million in the quarter. That left us with $439 million of cash on the balance sheet. We finished the quarter with a leverage ratio of 3.8 times. At this point, we intend to prepay additional debt in the second quarter and the full year. Looking back, Since we announced the acquisition of NuSTAR in September of 2021, we've prepaid about $1.3 billion of debt. And to reiterate our previous comment, at this time, we have no intention to pursue any large-scale acquisitions and even smaller bolt-on acquisitions are not currently in our plans. We are focused on integrating and maximizing the growth potential of NuSTAR, SONTIC, and Argus. That brings us to our outlook for the second quarter. In the second quarter, we expect about one point of headwind from FX on revenue and adjusted EBITDA. For revenue, there is no impact from acquisitions. We expect revenue to come in between $948 and $958 million, or flat to up 1% on an as-reported basis, and up 1% to 2% on an organic constant currency basis. Our revenue guidance includes an approximate one-point tailwind from mortgage, meaning that we expect the remainder of our business will be flat to up 1% on an organic constant currency basis. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $330 and $335 million, a decrease of 4% to 6%. We expect adjusted EBITDA margin to be down 200 to 220 basis points as a result of the impact of revenue mix. We also expect our adjusted diluted earnings per share to be between 81 cents and 83 cents, a range of down 15 to 18 percent, a result of lower adjusted EBITDA and higher interest expense. According to the full year, most of our guidance remains largely unchanged. We expect about one point of headwind from FX on revenue and adjusted EBITDA. For revenue, we anticipate less than 1% of benefit from the acquisition of Argus. We expect revenue to come in between 3.825 and $3.885 billion, or up 3% to 5% on an as-reported basis and an organic constant currency basis, and up 2% to 4% excluding the impact of mortgage. For our business segments, on an organic basis, we expect U.S. markets to grow mid-single digits, but low single digits without the impact of mortgage. We anticipate financial services to be up low single digits and down low single digits, excluding mortgage. While the overall guidance for financial services is unchanged, we have modestly reduced our expectations for consumer lending and card to reflect an uncertain lending environment. We expect emerging verticals to be up mid-single digits. You can see the benefits of our diversified portfolio playing out and allowing us to maintain our full-year revenue guidance. Now anticipate that international will grow low double digits in constant currency terms up from high single digits and driven by ongoing strength in emerging markets. And we continue to expect Consumer Interactive to decline low single digits. Turning back to total company outlook, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $1.388 and $1.421 billion, up 3 to 5 percent. That would result in adjusted EBITDA margin being flat to up 30 basis points, with the significant benefits of the new star cost savings partially offset by the inclusion of Argus's relatively lower margin in the first quarter and some revenue mix considerations. We anticipate adjusted diluted EPS being flat to declining 4%, with higher interest expense offsetting adjusted EBITDA growth. And we continue to expect our adjusted tax rate to be approximately 23%. Depreciation and amortization is expected to be approximately $525 million, and we expect the portion excluding step-up amortization from our 2012 change in control and subsequent acquisitions to be about $225 million. We anticipate net interest expense will be about $275 million for the full year, down slightly from our previous guidance due to our debt prepayment and a modest reduction in the forward LIBOR curve. And we expect capital expenditures to come in at about 8% of revenue. I'll now turn the call back to Chris for some final comments. Thank you, Todd.
spk14: To wrap up, we had a good first quarter and we're holding our full year guidance out of an abundance of caution given the level of uncertainty in the market. At the same time, we continue to make meaningful progress integrating NuSTAR in delivering business wins from the combination. Now, let me turn it over to Aaron.
spk02: Thanks, Chris. And that, of course, concludes our prepared remarks today. For the Q&A, as always, we ask that you each ask only one question so that we can include more participants. Operator, we can begin the Q&A now.
spk07: We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to one question. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question today comes from Andrew Steinerman with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
spk09: Could you speak about the three sub-segments of New Star in terms of New Star revenue growth, both in the first quarter actual and in the 2023 goals of high single digits? And also, if there's anything else to talk about with New Star in the first quarter in terms of the revenue growth deceleration besides for the year-over-year comparison, could you just give us a little more color on that?
spk14: Sure. Good morning, Andrew. Yeah, I guess let me address the full year first. And I'll start by just reaffirming that we hit our plan for the first quarter for New Star, 3% above a prior year comp in the quarter of about 9%, which was the high watermark for New Star's growth in 2022. You know, we feel like we've got good confidence. and good line of sight in the high single-digit organic growth for the full year for New Star, in large part because it is largely 80% plus a subscription business. Retention rates have been strong. Plus, we're layering in. We're ramping up on a very good year of sales, and the good news is that the bookings are continuing to be strong this year, so we're going to get some um, additional in-year kind of revenue momentum. And then look, all three lines of business grew nicely in the first quarter. I expect them to grow well for the full year. Um, you know, marketing continues to do well despite having a cyclical component, which is the audience generation piece of it. Um, but marketing continue to looks good. Um, the communications, um, data assets all around trusted call and branded call display. As you can see from our commentary, they're doing really well. And I expect that to continue for the foreseeable future. And, of course, fraud's doing well, as you would expect. So I'd say strength across the board. And, you know, Todd's going to elaborate a bit.
spk16: Yeah, so, Andrew, I'll just, you know, more specifically on the numbers themselves. As Chris already said, met our expectations in the first quarter. What I would say is across communications, marketing and risk, we saw all three product lines grow in the quarter. But when we flip back to the full year, as we've said in our prepared remarks, we are expecting high single-digit growth. And what we're seeing in communications, marketing, and risk solutions is that all three of those will grow high single, you know, for the full year. That's our expectation.
spk13: Yeah.
spk07: The next question comes from Kelsey Chu with Autonomous. Please go ahead.
spk05: Thanks for taking my question. So for mortgage, there's quite a bit of outperformance compared to your peers, and you talked about pricing and strong performance in HELOC and additional marketing products. Can you just give us a little bit more colors on what's going on there?
spk14: Yeah, sure. Well, I mean, you're right to cite a number of variables that contribute to overall revenue growth in a vertical, right? So the mortgage vertical for us, it could be pricing, it could be share, it could be volume, and it could be just the broader basket of services that we're now marketing. But the net-net, while the magnitude of decline in the quarter was less than we expected, most of the outperformance you're seeing is coming from the pricing impact that we're seeing roll through, a combination of third-party pricing and some pricing from TransUnion as well. And it's really the mix implication, right? The assumed mix versus the actual mix is a little bit different. In the first quarter, it was more skewed towards smaller lenders who typically pay higher unit prices. That may be because the composition of mortgage volume was more toward purchases, which tend to be broadly distributed or representative across the market, as opposed to refi, which gets more weighed at the higher end of the market. But I would say it's really a story of outperformance on the pricing dimension.
spk07: The next question comes from Jeff Mueller with Baird. Please go ahead.
spk10: Yeah, thank you. Good morning. So I can certainly respect the prudence of not flowing Q1 upside into a full year guidance raise in this macro. But as it relates to, I guess, US financial markets, and I think your language was an abundance of caution of what could come, just how much of this is about what's possible versus what you've seen already? So have you seen much client response yet in marketing spend origination criteria, I guess, and or bookings and pipeline progression or conversion? Thank you.
spk14: Yeah, it's a good question. Todd and I will weigh in on this together, but let me start. Yeah, look, it's one of those situations, I guess, where we've outperformed if we were to – you know, beat and raise the guidance for the year, and half the market would say, oh, well, that's risky. If we take a more prudent approach, like I think we have, then some might argue it's too conservative. But look, it's an uncertain market, as we can all agree. And in terms of the impact, particularly from the bank instability that we had about a month ago, While we may have had some wobble in the daily volumes and in our conversations with clients, you know, we know that they're going to continue to be cautious about new originations and they are more cautious in terms of marketing and origination activity. There's still pretty good volume and pretty good demand. Now, as we forecasted across the remainder of the year, in keeping with the methodology that we talked about in the last call, we didn't try and declare when a recession might happen or the depth and duration of the recession. We just forecasted from the current subdued market characteristics and applied a bit of caution on top of that based on what we've seen in the first quarter. But at this point, I can't say that the market has become materially more cautious in its marketing or origination posture than it already was.
spk07: The next question comes from Manas Patent with Barclays. Please go ahead.
spk08: Thank you. Chris, I was hoping you'd just maybe along the same lines talk a little bit about your FinTech customer base. You know, there's a lot of chat. of course, given the specific banks that failed and, you know, whether that's, you know, a great exposure for those customers that you have. I mean, you have a unique insight into them. So can you just share some, you know, whether they're struggling or some of them have to shut down or just, you know, what's going on there and how that impacts, you know, your business with them?
spk03: Hey, good morning. Manav, this is Todd. I'm going to take that question.
spk16: So, you know, first of all, as it pertains to the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures. I would say that TransUnion had virtually no revenue exposure to either bank. I think what's important to remember as well, too, is that TransUnion's customer base in our core financial services, and this is excluding New Star and Argus, about a third of our revenues come from our top 20 customers. Another third come from our 21st to 100 customers. And then another third of those come from thousands of other customers. So the point there is we have a very nice diversified base of customers. We're not necessarily held in a concentration with one particular customer. As it pertains to the failures themselves, I would say that TransUnion saw no direct impact of it. we did see an indirect effect, and that's just the tightening, the tighter lending that, you know, Chris has already articulated and we talked about in our prepared remarks this morning. In particular, just again as a reminder, just the caution that we're taking with card consumer lending and which we've reflected in our, you know, our updated guidance. When we look specifically, you know, at our consumer lending LOB Within financial services, consumer lending is where our fintechs reside is probably most known. I think what's important to remember here is the growth trajectory of this consumer lending business has been particularly strong. In 2021, we saw really strong growth. In 2022, that growth continued in the mid-teens. And right now we're calling for a high single-digit decline with that customer base. So what does all that mean? What it means is on a compounded annual growth rate basis, we're talking about a mid-teen performance for this customer base for the last three years, which is pretty exceptional. And I think what's important also to remember with the fintechs is that this isn't a linear business. But what they will do is they will outperform overall lending, the market, you know, over time. A couple other things I think are important to call out with this customer base is there's still demand both on the customer side as well as on the consumer side, and capital is available. Just what we're living through right now is that our customers are just being more selective as well as their investors are. And what's encouraging to us is we've embraced the FinTechs since the very beginning, and the customers here in this space have gotten more sophisticated, and they want to buy our broad-based solution suite, which we've only done nothing but enhance due to our recent acquisitions of New Star and Argus. And the last point here is the BNPL part of this area is still growing nicely.
spk07: The next question comes from Faiza Alway with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
spk06: Yes, hi, good morning. Todd, I wanted to ask about the margins in the back half of the year. Your 2Q guide is indicating that we're going to see, you know, huge margin expansion in the back half. And I think you've talked about, you know, New Star and other synergies coming through in the back half, but maybe give us a bit more color around what are some of the puts and takes to think about.
spk16: I'd be happy to, Faiza. Thank you for the question. So just to kind of, you know, ground us in the numbers, our margin in the first quarter was 34.2%. guidance that we just provided for Q2 is contemplating 34.8% to 35% on the margin and the full year is 36.3% to 36.6%. So if you take the high of that and figure out what the second half would be, we're roughly estimating that we'd need about a 38% adjusted EBITDA margin in the second half. 300 basis points higher than the high end of our 2Q guide. Okay, so how are we going to do that? Well, first is just our revenue expectations. I think that goes without saying. But the second part of that is the synergies pertaining to New Star. And we spoke about that during our February call. We upped the number. We initially said that the overall synergies, when we announced the equity, back in September 2021, it's going to be $70 million. Back in February, we increased the number to $80 million just based on what we have accomplished and the really good line of sight that we have in achieving that. In addition to the revenue and the synergies, we're also being very proactive on the cost management side as we're navigating a very uncertain market. So first, we're focused on only on making critical hires in areas of strategic importance to us. We've tightened our travel and entertainment, and we've eliminated significant one-time spend and specific consulting engagements. In addition to all of that, what also gives us the conviction and the margin, that we're also seeing the early benefits of our global approach towards operating trans unions. through our global capability centers, as well as the early benefits that we're continuing to enjoy for our technology transformation, which we refer to as Project Rise.
spk07: The next question comes from Tony Kaplan with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
spk00: Thanks so much. I was just hoping you could put a finer point on the trajectory of the market trends You know, what are you seeing in terms of consumer demand and lender tightening credit so far in April versus January or February? And also, just to get a directional sense, April versus second half of March. Thanks.
spk14: Well, Tony, we'll try and offer you a little bit of color on that. I mean, going back to the period of bank instability that we, experienced about a month back. I think, you know, while certainly the bank failure, failures that we experienced and then some of the incremental pressure, you know, it's unfortunate. There was really, it was really more fear-driven, I think, and amplified, you know, across our many media touch points. You know, from what I've read since then and from what we have seen, While there could be, you know, some implications on liquidity and just available capital to loan from the conventional banking segment, it's likely to be kind of small. And I think, as I mentioned earlier, in and around the crisis, you know, we saw some wobble in daily volume figures, but I wouldn't say it was material then or that it's been particularly material since. I think it's also important to understand that demand for credit for consumers remains strong. And to the degree that it can't be satisfied from, you know, conventional bank lenders, alternative funding sources, you know, are going to come into the market. They may replenish, you know, available funding in the fintech space. We have seen this. we've experienced several times, particularly with the FinTech lenders, where whenever there's market uncertainty, FinTech pulls back very quickly. It takes a period of time from the, you know, from the supply side to decide which lenders they want to back and what degree and what price, right? But I would expect that to be a kind of quarterly disruption in supply, meaning demand, and that that's going to correct itself and, you're going to continue to see a consistent level of lending activity over the course of this year, you know, despite the turmoil in the bank segment and just the general uncertainty in the environment.
spk07: The next question comes from Ashish Sabhadra with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
spk01: Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to focus on the emerging vertical and the acceleration that we are expecting. I was wondering if you could provide some color on the cadence, and in terms of driver, is it right for us to think about a lot of the growth is really coming from New Start accelerating through the rest of the year, but also some other puts and takes around employment screening, tenant screening, and insurance will be helpful? Thanks.
spk14: Yeah. Well, thanks for that question. So emerging did grow in the first quarter about a point and a half. The starting point in the story for the year, though, is to point out that it was growing over almost 10% organic comp in the same quarter prior year, and that was, again, the high water mark. The expectation is over the course of the year, one, comps are going to ease, as we've said. on the emerging segment, so easier comps, and accelerating growth in a few areas where, for idiosyncratic reasons and some market reasons, I think, growth fell below where we would typically expect it. That's certainly true in tenant screening. We talked a lot about the dynamics there of reduced move volumes because of high prices. That has eased quite a bit. in the recent quarter or so. And then there's also an expectation of a million additional housing units, rental housing units, to come on the market, and that should get us back more toward normal volumes and normal revenues. We're also seeing a recovery in our insurance business. It's probably the largest single segment it is within the emerging verticals, and it was you know, subdued because insurers needed higher prices to compensate for increased repair and replacement costs. That's largely worked itself through the system. We're seeing volumes there improve as well. Retail and e-commerce are showing some nice strength. A lot of that has to do with the sales of trusted call solutions, branded call display. And in public sector, there were just some, public sector is kind of a big deal driven industry. and so can be lumpy. And of course, we had to comp a contract where there was diminished volume for some, again, idiosyncratic reasons, but we expect public sector to come back as well. So we've got pretty good confidence in the forecast of revenue acceleration over the remainder of the year.
spk07: The next question comes from Heather Valsky with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
spk04: Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I was hoping to touch on Consumer Interactive, and it sounds like you're pulling back on some of your products and just cleaning up the mix there. Can you talk about what's happening in that segment?
spk14: Yeah. Well, I would say that Consumer Interactive, as we know, it's been challenged for about the past 18 to 24 months. The market dynamics are such where The productivity of our, you know, direct-to-consumer marketing efforts declined. We think some of that has to do with a structural shift toward freemium. Some of it may have to do with just, you know, the economic environment and consumers pairing subscriptions. But that was and remains, you know, the drag in our overall direct-to-consumer business. Last year we were in the indirect side of the business, you know, lapping. some contract restructuring that's, uh, fully in the rear view mirror now. And the indirect piece, which is materially larger is kind of returned to the expected growth levels, which is great. Um, Santec has given us, you know, new and exciting capabilities. It continues to grow kind of low double digits. We're feeling good about that. And in total, you know, over the course of this year, you're going to see, um, The rate of organic decline lessen. That's mainly going to be because SONTIC and indirect are going to perform well in line with expectations, and the indirect piece is going to become less and less negative as we get to kind of an equilibrium with our new level of marketing spend.
spk07: The next question comes from Seth Weber with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
spk13: Oh, hey, good morning. Just wondering if your guidance, your full year outlook kind of contemplates any changes in the student loan forgiveness landscape. There's some discussion that that could really cause some pickup in delinquencies, just how you're thinking about that. Thanks.
spk14: Well, what I would say generally is, you know, the former lenders who run our financial services business do a granular buildup and pipeline from every type of lender, and they would have included any potential impact from the student lending space. At this point, you know, that doesn't figure prominently on my risk radar, so I feel like we're in pretty good shape with the guidance that we've reiterated today.
spk07: The next question comes from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair. Please go ahead.
spk15: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Given the increased traction and headlines around artificial intelligence and maybe generative AI more specifically, I was hoping you could spend some time talking about how you're leveraging AI at TransUnion today and maybe what some incremental opportunities might be to leverage it further going forward and maybe how that could impact growth or margins in the medium term.
spk14: Thank you. Great question, Andrew. Actually, Todd and I are on vacation today and you're interfacing with an internal AI bot. No kidding aside, of course. You know, look, we have been in, you know, the credit reporting agency and business and TransUnion in particular, you know, we've been using machine learning and some AI capabilities for some time. And we're excited about the potential for you know, improving efficiency that this technology step forward represents. I think there are various internal processes. A dispute resolution comes to mind where we could see some, you know, really material impacts over time as we apply this to service consumers more effectively. In terms of actual, you know, credit modeling and the like, it no doubt has a role, but I think we have to remember that our data is and the needs that we serve are highly regulated, and privacy and information security really comes out of premium. So we're not going to, for example, send credit information over the public web to interface with chat GPT or anything like that. We will continue to invest in kind of AI and large language models that are tuned to credit needs that meet privacy and security requirements, and that's something that's going to evolve over time. But, you know, we will be, you know, investing in this area as is appropriate, and I think it's going to be an enhancement generally to our ability to provide services.
spk03: Great. And we're going to wrap up the call here at the bottom of the hour. I know it's a very busy earnings day, as it often is this time of the and we'll draw to a close there. Thanks, everyone, for your time today, and we look forward to speaking with you soon. All the best.
spk07: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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