5/1/2025

speaker
Giovanni Sardegna
Investor Relations Officer

Good

speaker
Liz
Conference Operator/Moderator

day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Tenaris First Quarter 2025 earnings call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session you'll need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question please press star 1-1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Giovanni Sardegna, Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.

speaker
Giovanni Sardegna
Investor Relations Officer

Thank you Liz and welcome to the Tenaris 2025 First Quarter Conference call. Before we start I would like to remind you that we will be discussing information in the call and that the actual results may vary from those expressed or implied during this call. With me on the call today are Paolo Rocca, our Chairman and CEO, Alicia Mondolo, our Chief Financial Officer, Gabriel Podcuska, our Chief Operating Officer, and Gugermo Moreno, newly appointed President of our US operations. Before passing over the call to Paolo for his opening remarks I would like to briefly comment our quarterly results. Our first quarter sales reached 2.9 billion, down 15% year on year, but up 3% sequentially due to higher seasonal volumes in Canada and higher onshore sales in the US, while our average selling price declined due to market and product mixed effects with lower sales of OCTG premium products in Mexico, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, in addition to lower sales of seamless line pipe for offshore projects. Average selling price in our tubes operating segment decreased 11% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2024 and 5% sequentially. On a comparable basis our ABDA rose 6% and net income remained in line with the results of the previous quarter. Our ABDA margin increased slightly to 24% due to a good operating performance and better absorption of fixed and semi-fixed costs thanks to higher volumes. With operating cash flow of 821 million and capital expenditure of 174 million, our free cash flow for the quarter was 647 million. Following share buybacks of 237 million during the quarter, our net cash position increased to 4 billion, up from 3.6 billion at the end of last year. Now I will ask Paolo to say a few words before we open the call to questions.

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Thank you Giovanni and good morning to all of you. I will start mentioning a change in our management team. Giorgio Moreno, who is with us on the call today, has taken the position of president of our US operation. Giorgio Moreno has more than 35 years of experience in Tenaris. He has led our US commercial operation over the last five and a half years, prior of which he was president of our Canadian operation. We wish him all the best in his new position. We began 2025 with a good performance in the first quarter. Not only did we deliver quarter on quarter increase in sales and EBITDA on a comparable basis, but our free cash flow rose to 647 million dollars as we achieved a significant reduction in working capital. In Canada, we have been consolidating our rig direct strategy with long term agreements, which have given us more stability and visibility in our operation. This winter season, we ship a record quarterly volume of OCTG. In the US, we have increased deliveries and continue to extend the range of services under our rig direct program. These results reflect the value perceived by our customers in working closely with us under long term agreements as they seek further operational efficiencies. They include most of the largest shale operator with a longer backlog of tier 1 acreage and the most resilient operation. In Argentina, we began pipe deliveries for the new Vaca Moretasur pipeline, which will add 550,000 barrels a day of additional oil export capacity. And is expected to come into operation next year. As local operator increase their investment in this highly productive shale play, we are expanding our new fracking and cold tubing service unit with an investment in a third set of equipment, which should come into operation next year. Our project backlog for offshore project is solid and we expect to have further opportunities with a new wave of FID that we expect to be sanctioned in 2026. This backlog is made up of highly differentiated OCTG line pipe connector and coating products. Here, our recent success in qualifying products for high pressure 20K deep water project in the US with Shell and BP and the value we bring through the integration of shocker coating technology, give us an edge in tackling future challenges. In the coming months, we will supply line pipe for the Ndungu and Bunga North offshore project in West Africa. In Australia, we receive a multi-year award from Chevron to supply the backfill wells for Gorgon and Winston project in Australia. In the Middle East, we made a record quarterly level of shipment to Ardenok under our long-term service agreement as they started the new shale drilling operation. We also commence pipe shipment for a major gas processing facility in Algeria. The major NOCs in the region have long-term planning cycles and we expect that their operation will remain relatively resilient through the year. The last conference call we mentioned that we were heading for uncharted territories. The subsequent chain of announcement on tariff and counter tariff has not dispelled this in certainty on the global situation, macroeconomic and geopolitical situation. This has fueled the expectation for a lower level of economic activity and lower demand for oil. Price of oil has been additionally affected by the production increases announced by the OPEC+. If the price of oil remains near or below $60 per barrel, there will inevitably be a slowdown in North American shale drilling activity. While a long-cycle sanction process project will likely continue, a new project sanctioning may be subject to delays. As we face this less favorable macroeconomic and oil price environment, we are preparing for lower levels of activity ahead. We do so from a position where we expect to demonstrate the resilience and the solidity of our customer portfolio, our flexible industrial and supply chain system and our solid balance sheet. In the longer term, the outlook for our industry remains secure in a world where demand for reliable sources of affordable energy will continue to grow. I will stop here and open the floor for any questions you may have.

speaker
Liz
Conference Operator/Moderator

As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press star 1-1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1-1 again. Our first question comes from Alessandro Pazzi with Mediobanca.

speaker
Alessandro Pazzi
Analyst, Mediobanca

Thank you for taking my questions. I think during your opening remarks, you mentioned a potential slowdown in activities in the US. I was wondering, are you already seeing companies pulling back on capex and what sort of, let's say, level of recount do you expect now by year end? You also mentioned that potentially ahead of a slower cycle now, you may be willing to take some cost saving initiatives. I was wondering if you can give us more color around that. Thank you.

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Alessandro. Effectively, as you mentioned, I think that the change that is occurring at the geopolitical and macroeconomic level induces expectations of a lower level of economic activity. And also the price of oil, the demand and the price of oil is reflecting this expectation and the announcement by the OPEC plus of increasing production. The combined effect, as you can see, is a reduction in the price of oil. And this, if this situation stabilizes at the present level, and this is something that may or may not happen because everything has been moving very fast in the last couple of months. Action, counteraction and so on, tariff and on different areas have moved many variables. So if this situation stabilizes and the price of oil remains in this range, the oil company will have to adequate the level of capex to the reduced level of cash flow. So we expect that gradually there will be a reduction in the level of operational account, especially in the area and in the projects like in the United States that could be discontinued or postponed with less effort and change. How deep this could be? Well, as we mentioned in our outlook, we do not expect this to impact the second quarter of 2025. We have a pretty solid backlog. We do not expect, let's say, a major change and we continue to maintain our estimate of the results in line of slightly better than what we had in the first quarter. But when we look at the second half, there is uncertainty. We may estimate the reduction in the level of drilling activity in the US. But we are confident that the project worldwide, especially the offshore but also some of the program of the drilling of the National Oil Company will continue independently from the change in the price, in the temporary short-term price of oil. This project has a horizon of 10, 15 years and is undertaken by companies with strong balance sheets and strong financial capability. So there is an effect of reduction in activity. We expect this in the world of fields to a larger extent in the US and especially in the US in the oil production. Because as you know, the gas is supported by the LNG demand. We do not expect such a reduction in gas. The price of gas also has different dynamics. Canada, considering that the drilling activity driven by gas has a larger share, is stronger, more than 40%, 45% of the activity is driven by gas. There could be a reduction but mostly driven by oil in the second half also. In the rest of the world, we will see if this level of price stabilizes and the expectation of the economy remains at that level or gets worse. There could be postponement of long-term projects that may be launched in 2026 but this is too early to say. There is a high degree of uncertainty if we look at the second half and into 2026.

speaker
Alessandro Pazzi
Analyst, Mediobanca

If we look beyond Q1 and Q2, is there any visibility at the moment for Q3? Do you think potentially the lower oil prices could impact Q3 or is it too early or do you have a view on how Q3 could shape up?

speaker
Alicia Mondolo
Chief Financial Officer

As

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

I said before, if the price remains at the present level, around or below $60, gradually the capex of the oil company may be reduced and we will see the first effect in Q3. But as I said, still we have high uncertainty on the evolution of the main variable. Everything is on the move. But if the oil stays there, we will start to see reduction in activity in the third Q of 2035.

speaker
Alessandro Pazzi
Analyst, Mediobanca

Okay, thank

speaker
Liz
Conference Operator/Moderator

you very much. Our next question comes from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.

speaker
Arun Jayaram
Analyst, JPMorgan

Good morning, Paolo. I was wondering if you could maybe give us your updated views on how the implementation of U.S. tariffs on steel is impacting or will impact your operating results. Obviously we've seen some improvement in price in terms of the pipe logic indices. Maybe you could also highlight if you've seen any changes in imports to the U.S. as the Section 232 quotas have been removed as part of the implementation of U.S. tariffs.

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Arun. Well, tariffs, as you know, the 232 applying to steel is today affecting in part our operation for our import of steel and some import of pipe into the U.S. Even if we produce almost all of our pipes in the U.S., but we still are importing some of the steel bars that go to our plant in Bay City and Ambridge. We estimate the impact of this in the range of 70 million per quarter of additional tariffs on one side. On the other side, as you mentioned, the pipe logic has been moving up and we consider that all in all the price increases we will see reflected gradually in our contract in the U.S. will offset this increase in tariffs. I think this is basically the trend that we can expect. I would like to have Giorgio that is leading through this to add some comment before going a little more deep into this one brief mention on import that you were asking for. In the first quarter import, there has been a higher level of import compared to the previous quarter. Some of this has been anticipation of the coming tariffs by an importer. They decided to raise the level of import at this point. This happened not only in our sector but also in other areas of the economy. There has been an increase in the stocks in the entire economy in the expectation of tariffs. But we will see, depending on the negotiation underway, also how this will evolve. I will ask Giorgio to give some additional comment on the situation and the reaction of the U.S. client to this environment.

speaker
Giorgio Moreno
President, US Operations

Thank you Paolo and good morning Arun. As you said, in the first quarter we saw an increase of imports after four quarters of a reduction of imports and a stocking of the market. We were expecting a rebound and this became effective in the first quarter. For the second quarter we still expect a similar level a little bit downward. I think the second half will depend a lot on what happens with activity. However, we expect that the administration will focus on the purpose of the 232 where the objective is to increase the utilization of the domestic industry. With regards to, as you said, about activity, we have a good visibility with our clients because of our RIC Direct. Most of them have not so far announced any drops of RICs. However, they are in the process of analyzing but we would expect that there will be some adjustments starting in the second half of the year.

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Thank you Giorgio.

speaker
Arun Jayaram
Analyst, JPMorgan

Great and Paolo, just to clarification, you mentioned 70 million of potential tariff costs impacts per quarter but that would be reflected in your flat EBITDA margin guide already so that it's not affecting your margins per se?

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

First of all, the 70 million per quarter that I mentioned will come in gradually during the coming three quarters. This will also be reflected in the accounting due to the IFRS gradually. For different reasons, this is the estimate, the running cost that we will have, but we will arrive there gradually because these numbers are entering into our cost of sales gradually. And also because it will depend from our ability to expand production in Coppel as much as we can, reduce import of steel over time. So it's a broader estimate that may materialize in the fourth quarter as an impact in our cost provided that we are not able to strengthen local production or negotiate. Because we don't know where the negotiation with Mexico and with Europe may advance. If there are changes in this negotiation, this may turn out into a reduction, potential reduction of the 25% of the 232 for this specific semis that we are bringing to the state.

speaker
Arun Jayaram
Analyst, JPMorgan

Great. And my second question is, Paolo, Giovanni mentioned how the net cash balance at the company has reached $4 billion. So I wanted to get your thoughts on reinvestment opportunities. I believe that you've exhausted your buyback authorization and thoughts on potentially at the next annual meeting in May for the company to re-up the buyback authorization.

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Yes, as you say, we completed the buyback under the authorization that

speaker
Alicia Mondolo
Chief Financial Officer

the

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

board of directors had in the assembly. One of the points of the agenda is exactly to renew the authorization for a buyback of up to 10% of the outstanding share. And then the new board of directors will consider what to do and if to proceed with the program that has been carried on since last year. Understood.

speaker
Arun Jayaram
Analyst, JPMorgan

Thank you very much.

speaker
Liz
Conference Operator/Moderator

Our next question comes from David Anderson with Barclays.

speaker
David Anderson
Analyst, Barclays

Thank you. Good morning. Paolo, I certainly recognize all the uncertainty in the second half of the year, but if oil prices just stay where they are and if tariffs don't change from here, I'm just curious how you're seeing volumes in the second half progressing here. I certainly recognize the U.S. is more sensitive to commodity prices, but your rig direct model encompasses most of the larger operators who are probably not going to change the programs too much. And then thinking about the rest of the world in that mix, I wouldn't think volumes should fall too much in the second half, but could you potentially just give us a range of kind of outcomes that you think could happen?

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

I think it's too early to give a prediction of the decision of the company. But you are right in the consideration that our portfolio of clients is mainly consisting of the major oil company, the company that has large assets in the shell, that are developing their assets on the basis of long-term programs, that are taking the decision with medium and long-term horizons, are not subject to, let's say, short-term input given by the level of cash flow, so they can plan. So our portfolio is this. We have our own stock in-house to serve this as a rig direct. So we expect that whatever decision they may take or whatever the trend in the market, our portfolio of clients should be more resilient to the rest of the market. This is also another factor that we need to consider. There are components of the supply metrics in the States, like import. That may be subject to a renewal of quota or other changes in the negotiation with the different countries that are shipping their pipe to the United States. It's true that with the new 232,

speaker
Alicia Mondolo
Chief Financial Officer

they

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

have no quota, but they pay the 25%. But I think that the administration will keep a close look at the volume coming from these countries and will consider this in the negotiations. So this is a factor. The other component of the matrix supply is also the welded pipe for local producers. In

speaker
Alicia Mondolo
Chief Financial Officer

this

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

moment, the price of hot-roll coils has increased very fast since the introduction of tariff. And the pipe logic is increasing, but not at the same pace. So there are other components of the supply chain that may be squeezed in this environment and reduce the pressure of supply in an environment of slightly reduced or strongly reduced supply. So there's a lot of things that we're seeing.

speaker
David Anderson
Analyst, Barclays

I appreciate the color. Thank you. A separate question. You mentioned offshore a few times in your remarks. I was just wondering, within your mix of volumes, should we expect that offshore component to start growing later this year into 2026? There's a number of offshore developments starting next year. Talk about kind of longer programs that shouldn't be affected. I wouldn't think offshore should be impacted here. But I was just wondering if you start to see those volumes coming through your numbers later this year into 2026 and just kind of what you're hearing from your customers in terms of that potential offshore activity in 2026?

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Thank you, David. Before passing to Gabriel the question for the review of the offshore landscape, I think I'll tell you that the overall invoicing that we are getting from the sale of Connect, CTG, lime pipe and coating is very, very relevant for Tenaris. So it's a very important component of our overall positioning. Gabriel, can you? Sure.

speaker
Gabriel Podcuska
Chief Operating Officer

Thank you, Paulo. Morning, David. Indeed, the offshore market, as Paulo was saying, is very important for Tenaris. And I would say with a high degree of resilience in an environment of high uncertainty. Tenaris is an absolute leader in this space, as we mentioned in some of the opening remarks. For example, we have been selected to be the supplier of choice for one of the FIDs, most recent FIDs, in Deepwater, which is a Shell Bunga project in Nigeria. Here we're going to deliver a full supply of subsea pipeline and risers. We will also deliver insulation coating services that we will produce in our coating facility in Port Hargo in Nigeria. And we're also going to be the leading supplier of all CTG for the 25 wells that are required for this development. This is one of the many examples of the contract, of the backlog that we have for offshore, which is quite high. This has been an area of strength for Tenaris in 2024 and will be in 2025. And even some of these backlogs goes into 2026. We don't expect the short term volatility in oil prices to affect the development of the projects that are already sanctioned. These projects have been sanctioned with an horizon of a long span, a decade or more. And also it is important to mention that many of these Deepwater break-evens have been very competitive in the range of 30 or even lower than that. So we expect the offshore to be a very resilient segment for the rest of 2025 and even into 2026.

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Gabriel.

speaker
Liz
Conference Operator/Moderator

Thank

speaker
Stephen Gangara
Analyst, Stiefel

you. Appreciate

speaker
Liz
Conference Operator/Moderator

it. Our next question comes from Sebastian Erskine with Redburn Atlantic.

speaker
Sebastian Erskine
Analyst, Redburn Atlantic

Yeah. Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one, I just had a question on the cost structure. I noticed in the first quarter kind of quite a large 9% sequential step down in unit labor costs and to a lesser extent on raw materials. Is there anything specific you can flag on that and kind of what we can expect in terms of a quarterly cadence going forward to the end of the year?

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Sebastian. I think that we have seen a pretty stable evolution of key components. Slightly down on the trend for iron ore, scrap went up slightly following the increase in the hydrocoil in the US. But basically in an environment in which economic growth or the dynamic of the economy is turning more sour, we do not see that we should have cost impact. On the contrary, if the reason economies slow down some of the world, we should see some reduction from where we are today in our basic input. And then you were mentioning the labor.

speaker
Alicia Mondolo
Chief Financial Officer

As

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

you know, we are in the process of structuring of some of our operations to increase productivity and to continuously proceed in achieving savings in increasing productivity in our operations. This may have an impact gradually on the overall labor cost in our operation.

speaker
Sebastian Erskine
Analyst, Redburn Atlantic

I appreciate the color there. Thank you. And then just the second one on Mexico. The situation sort of appears to have further deteriorated with Pemex growing supply debt. Could you give us an update on where you see some movement to the upside in that geography? Given some of the commentary of your peers being quite sanguine and negative.

speaker
Alicia Mondolo
Chief Financial Officer

Well,

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

two points. On one side, we've been able to reduce our exposure to Pemex, to operations that allow us to substantially reduce our exposure. And you see this in the increase in the reduction in our working capital and in the cash flow. On the other side, when we look at the operation of Pemex, I maintain the position that I told you in the last quarter. The situation of Pemex has been continuously deteriorating. Today, they are arriving at the level of rigs operation that is extremely low. I think we are in the range of 16 rigs. And the level of production is in the range of ,600,000 going to 1 million, even lower, because there has been for a few quarters reduction every month of production. It may spate for a while, but it's there. So today, the situation is clearly very difficult, but in my view, it's unsustainable. The government came out and presented a plan for refinancing to some extent Pemex and designing an energy plan that would bring back resources to Pemex and plan for getting back to drilling and to development of resources. But this is supposed to happen, but we do not know when this plan will materialize. For the time being, we have listened to the president of Mexico and expounding the lines of these plans. But we do not see the action in Pemex to implement this yet. But I'm confident that Mexico could not leave Pemex in the situation that it is now. And there will be some moment in the coming quarter action following the planning that has been presented.

speaker
Sebastian Erskine
Analyst, Redburn Atlantic

Thank you very much, Jorge. We'll move that back now. Thank you.

speaker
Liz
Conference Operator/Moderator

Our next question comes from Stephen Gangara with Stiefel.

speaker
Stephen Gangara
Analyst, Stiefel

Thank you. Good afternoon. Good morning, everybody. Excuse me. So I had a question about the raw material costs in the U.S. market versus the pricing. And I'm just sort of thinking back to prior periods where, you know, when the market was strong enough and raw material costs were higher, I think you generally more than offset the increase. And today it's a little bit different with the potential for lower activity. How do you think those two items balance themselves out in the second half of the year? Do you think you can manage through it to hold margin or do you think the input costs in the case of potentially lower demand will be aheadwind on margins in the second half of the year?

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Stephen. And frankly, I do not think that our main concern in this moment should come from raw material. The whole the tariff, the change, the retaliation and the uncertainty on the reciprocal tariff are creating some gap between the price situation within the United States and the pricing in the international market. This is very true for the hot roll coils, to some extent also for the scrap and the raw material. But in this moment, I would say our concern is more the overall level of economic activity and the risk of a recession and some down trend in the overall level of activity. This is more of a concern. Also, we have five steel shops operating all over the world. Some operating in the States, one in the States, the other in other regions in Latin America, in Europe. And I think we can manage this change in the value and these gaps from the prices internally in the States or outside in the rest of the world. Also, Tenaris has a highly differentiated product. The raw material has an impact on our overall cost, but it is not the same impact that you may have in companies that are focused on lower value added products like long or flat products to some extent. So it is important, but in this moment, I don't think this is our main concern.

speaker
Stephen Gangara
Analyst, Stiefel

Great.

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Thank

speaker
Stephen Gangara
Analyst, Stiefel

you. The other question I wanted to ask about is, given the rig direct model that is in place, can you give us a sense for if we do see a reversal in price at all as a result of low activity, what sort of timing on when we would see that start to show up in the numbers? Would it be third quarter? Would it be later? Just based on the rig direct model and the relationships you have with your key customers?

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Well, this is a question that is not easy to project in the second half. Also, because of the change in tariff, the uncertainty on quota, what will the US administration do to limit import into the States? This is a very important factor to determine the dynamic. Up to now, we have seen the Pycologic growing slowly, but moving on even this month. Here, maybe Gagermo, you can add some color on the factor that may influence pricing in the medium term.

speaker
Giorgio Moreno
President, US Operations

Yes. As you said, since the beginning of the year, the prices in the market have increased by 10%. As you know, and we have discussed in previous calls, because of the formulas of our rig direct long-term agreements, we have some inertia. So we don't expect any, in case there is a reduction in the prices, we don't expect any impact in the third quarter. And eventually, it could start to affect, to go into our P&L in the fourth. However, I think it's too early to say. As we said before, still, we have not heard from any of our clients a reduction in their activities, though we are expecting them to come out probably with some during maybe May. I think that in one month, we'll have a better visibility of their decisions about the second half. But I don't see any impact on the contrary. I mean, due to the inertia of our formulas, prices in the third quarter should go up because so far we have seen that increase.

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Thank you. Thank you.

speaker
Liz
Conference Operator/Moderator

Our next question comes from Derek Pothaser with Piper Sandler.

speaker
Derek Pothaser
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Hey, good morning. Just to kind of wrap up all the conversations around tariffs and the impact on pricing. And obviously, we have an activity outlook that has deteriorated over the last three months. But I remember last quarter, you discussed reaching a 25% margin target in the back half of the year. Obviously, we now have this potential activity role in the US. But considering the pricing increases, considering the tariffs, we're going to keep an eye on Section 232 quotas. Do you still think 25% EBITDA margin is still a good target for the second half of the year?

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Well, I think many things happened between that estimation and today. I mean, the changes have been substantial. Today, we are looking at the price of oil in the range of below $60. This, no doubt, will have an impact on us. Still, considering all the factors that we mentioned, stability of our portfolio, differentiation in the market that could be most affected by a slowdown, I think we should be able to maintain over time our margin between the 20 and 25. But it will be difficult today to stay at the 25% margin rate with this environment in the second half of this year. But we will still stay, let's say, within this range, looking at the environment as it is today.

speaker
Derek Pothaser
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Great. I appreciate the comments there. Then just maybe if we can expand. So the North America revenue was up 10% quarter of a quarter. I know that includes Mexico, obviously, which the region has clearly deteriorated. So surprised to see the strength there. You talked about Canada's seasonal recovery. But you also mentioned the increased sales through US rig direct. I just wanted to get your take. Maybe we can expand on that. Have you seen maybe a front loading of budgets as your largest E&P operators look to order seal OCTG ahead of the tariff impact and potentially other impacts that could be coming throughout the year? Just maybe some thoughts on why you have such a strong quarter for North America driven by the US side, just considering Mexico is such a drag.

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

No, our business model, we sell on rig direct, we invoice directly when they use the pipe rig. And today more than 95% of our clients are operating on this way. So in the end, we are copying very precisely the exact level of operation. There is no room for anticipating stocks in most of our sales. There are maybe line pipe, but also in this I don't think the company had the space for, let's say, anticipating order. So we are just copying the curve of the activity. Our current has been resilient. I mean, the level of their operation after consolidation by the different company has to some extent to be solid. Now, in Canada, we had a record season. I mean, for us, it's been a record quarter in the record season also for Canada. In Canada, the level of drilling has been high. Our rig direct model in Canada is expanding. So also in Canada, we are copying the level of operation. We do not see any anticipation of sales. Now, on this ground, we are making our forecast for the second Q and is a positive forecast because we have a portfolio. So we have this stability. We can predict, we think pretty well the combination of volume and price in that region. When we look ahead in the second half of the year, this is much more difficult because the company will recalculate probably during the coming three, four months. And they will

speaker
Alicia Mondolo
Chief Financial Officer

maybe reorganize,

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

replan some of the development. And we will see this happening, but probably during the quarter, the second quarter, at the end of the second quarter, we will understand better the perspective for the second quarter. We will also better understand if the administration will limit import to some extent. And if the expectation of the economy and the oil will continue to be as they are today, which is, let's say, pretty pessimistic point of view for the future.

speaker
Derek Pothaser
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Great. Thanks for all the comments. I'll turn it back.

speaker
Liz
Conference Operator/Moderator

Our next question comes from Jamie Franklin with Jeffreys.

speaker
Jamie Franklin
Analyst, Jeffreys

Hi there. Thank you for taking my questions. Just a couple of clarifications. So I want to come back on costs firstly. And last year, at two Q results, you gave a target for 200 million cost savings to be realized by one H25. Can you please quantify approximately how much of that has already been recognized as of one Q25 results? Secondly, regarding the decline in sales in South America in the quarter, the press release mentions lower prices in Argentina. Could you please just elaborate on that? And any further color you could give us on possible timing of orders in Argentina later this year, please? Thank you.

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Jamie. Well, on the first point, I think we have been able to capture more than half of the 200 million savings that we planned in the middle of last year.

speaker
Alicia Mondolo
Chief Financial Officer

This

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

is coming from different sources, productivity increase, efficiency in our plan, some reorganization of our supply chain to also reduce the cost of input. And we are proceeding and we expect that this will contribute. In the end, it will contribute to our margin because these savings are getting into our IFRS cost of sales over time, not immediately because this is the logic of it. So we will proceed in this sense and we think we will get the expected reduction by the end of the second. Talking about Argentina, the overall level of price, what is going down is the mix because we are combining

speaker
Alicia Mondolo
Chief Financial Officer

Linepipe

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Project and OCTG. And in the Linepipe Project, we have a lower level of price for these. These are welded products like the new Vemos Linepipe Project and so on. In the case of the OCTG, we are reflecting the formulas in the majority of our contract are considering the pipe logic as a key factor, one of the factors. There are other in some of the contract, but mainly these will be pipe logic. And so, for instance, we may see increase of some percentage point in this. There has been a change of mix in Argentina because the rigs in the Vaca Muerta space has been increasing, are today in the range of about 43, 44, I think now. They were in the range of 30, one year and a half ago, I mean two years ago. So the increase is there in the Vaca Muerta space, but in the southern part of the country, YPF and the other companies have been selling less productive assets to focus on Vaca Muerta and this has reduced the number of rigs operating in the south. So when you look at the overall number, you see an increase that appears to be more limited and probably also during the rest of 2025, we will see a slight increase in the level of rigs. But in terms of price, I think overall we will follow the pipe logic and you will see this. The price apart from the mix between welded and seamless.

speaker
Jamie Franklin
Analyst, Jeffreys

That's great. Thank you.

speaker
Liz
Conference Operator/Moderator

Our next question comes from Daniel Thompson with BNP Paribas.

speaker
Daniel Thompson
Analyst, BNP Paribas

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Just a follow up on the shareholder returns comments and thinking around the balance sheet. Obviously, the share price has taken a significant step down on the lower oil price environment already and given your positive longer term outlook, you know, buybacks could represent one of the most attractive uses of cash here. So I just wondered how the lower share price factors into your thinking on repurchases and the pace of those repurchases that you've demonstrated under the existing program, you know, relative to maybe wanting to maintain a more defensive cash balance into the potentially weaker period. And the second one is a bit more straightforward, just on the mechanics of any reauthorization. What is the timeline between any reauthorization being issued in May and actually beginning with the implementation of the buyback? Are there any subsequent approvals required after that May meeting or not? Thank you.

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Daniel. Well, as I was saying before, the extension of the utilization of buyback is in the agenda of the General Assembly. We expect it to be approved. Then it will be up to the new board of directors to consider the different factors, the situation, the perspective for eventual acquisition, possible use of cash, and decide which course of action to take. We will bring all this evidence to the board. And after the General Assembly and the assumption of the new authority in the board, the board will consider this and see which is the best use of the cash that we have in the company.

speaker
Daniel Thompson
Analyst, BNP Paribas

All right.

speaker
Paolo Rocca
Chairman and CEO

Thank you. Thank you.

speaker
Liz
Conference Operator/Moderator

That concludes today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Giovanni Sadagna for closing remarks.

speaker
Giovanni Sardegna
Investor Relations Officer

Thank you, Liz. And well, we would like to thank you all for joining us today in our conference call. Thanks.

speaker
Liz
Conference Operator/Moderator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

Q1TS 2025

-

-