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2/11/2026
So welcome, everybody, for this presentation of 2025 results and the objective for 2026. We are from London. It is sunny, like it's sun for the shares of TotalEnergies until we speak. So we'll see after that, after this call. And I'm happy to be here today with the executive committee members. You know all of them, but not Catherine. Catherine, you could stand up, which is our new member in charge of people and social engagement and all global services. That's Catherine. And there's another person which is next to us that you need to know, which is Arnaud Le Foll. Arnaud is our deputy CFO. You will have a chance to listen to him today. We'll make a presentation in two big parts and two focus in the middle, so to change. So Jean-Pierre will introduce the first. We'll have, of course, safety moment. It will be done. And the, I would say, safety sustainability part will be done by Nicolas Terrasse, our president upstream. Then we'll have Jean-Pierre who will make review of the 2025 results. Then two small focus. One, Namibia by Arnaud. Because Arnaud, before to be deputy CFO, was the one in charge of the negotiation of Namibia. Let's have the opportunity to let him listen to him. And then Stéphane will come in the focus of data centers, AI, from as a way as a business for us but also what we do internally so just to focus and then i will take the last part about what are the objectives for 2026 so it should be normally if we are respecting the timing not sure it should be one hour one hour five minutes we'll see uh but be patient when you have time to ask your question so nicola flow is yours to connect over here
Good afternoon, everyone. So first, let me take a minute for a sustainability moment. We thought for this sustainability moment, we'd share with you a very concrete illustration on what we're doing to fight methane emissions. And to fight methane emissions, the first step is to detect them. So what we did last year is we installed in all our sites a network of detection and monitoring system, fixed, continuous. And what you see in the footage here is a picture or video taken in Argentina, in Neuquén. And we are just commissioning an infrared camera. And this infrared camera detected what is not a fire, but it's a... It's methane, and in fact, it's methane coming from underground, from a pipeline which had a pinhole, a very small hole, and was leaking methane in fairly modest quantities. Still, this was detected. This was, of course, immediately fixed. So the pipeline was excavated on the leakage fixed. But this really illustrates the role and benefit of permanent methane detection to reach near zero methane emissions, which are objective by 2030. So let me now move to safety. So you see on the slides, we are on a journey of continuous improvement in safety, both for safety at work and for process safety. So for safety at work, you see on the left part of the slide our total recordable injury rate, which has been continuously decreasing. And last year, we... We were below 0.5 event per million man hour. So I think we are pleased to be ahead of our peer group. We are not happy, in fact, is that we had one fatality last year. This happened in Angola. during the offloading of drilling casings from a rig to a platform supply vessel, where one person working on board the supply vessel was crushed by those drilling pipes. Manoj Kumar, he was 51 years old, he was married, he had one child. And after the accident, what we did is what we owed to him, which is to take very strong action to reinforce the safety of deck operations on board our supply vessels by putting more physical barriers, steel frames for pipe offloading operations, but also by taking very strong organizational measures in terms of supervision of the dock operations on board our supply vessels. For process safety and the prevention of major risk, it's illustrated on the right part of the slide with a reduction of the number of primary losses of containment on our sites, which have been decreased by 60% since And so we are continuing to work on that front. Today, more than ever, we want to ensure everyone working on our sites, either staff or contractors, can return home safely. And we aim to achieve zero fatality in our operations. I am now coming to our emissions. On here, we are really pleased that in 2025, we reached and even exceeded all our emission reduction targets. So I spoke about methane just before. Now we are at minus 65% in our methane emissions compared to 2020. We had a target of minus 60%. And as I mentioned, we are monitoring this super closely in order to reach near zero methane in three, four years. For greenhouse gas, looking at our scope one and two, greenhouse gas emissions, you see that last year for oil and gas operations, we reduced the emission by one million ton compared to 2024. And we have a cumulative reduction of 38%. Also, the gradual evolution of our sales mix is driving down the lifecycle carbon intensity of our products, of the products we're selling. And you see the figure here, minus 19% in 2025 compared to where we were in 2015. On the last point, but not the least one, is that we've invested $1 billion in energy efficiency improvement program over 23, 25. This is paying off. It's paying off with a reduction in our emissions, because the actions implemented through this program resulted in a reduction of 2 million tons of CO2 equivalent emissions less. But it's also paying off in terms of dollars, because this program has generated around $200 million annually of energy and CO2 savings from hundreds, in fact, of actions on our various sites. So this was about emissions. And now I'm going to hand back the floor to Jean-Pierre.
Thank you very much. Good afternoon. So I will present to you the 2025 results and I think the key achievement of the year. So you know we have a pretty well-balanced strategy, integrated strategy, anchored on two pillars. The first one, oil and gas, and the second one, gas and LNG. Let me go through the main achievements of 2025, so starting with oil and gas and oil in particular. So you see that you know that we started up two main oil and gas fields, one in the US with Ballymore, another one, another deep offshore development in Brazil with Merufor. Nanibia, it's a very clear achievement of 2025 year. So entering in the block, till now operated by GALP, supporting the Mopan discovery. So entering into that block, of course, is a very clear achievement, confirming this Nanibia as a new, I would say, golden province for total energy. Arnaud will come back on that to give you more details about that. To prepare the future, so we have reloaded our portfolio, exploration portfolio. You see here the different geographies in which we are very active in 2025. On the gas and LNG side, Rio Grande, so with FID, we sanctioned the project, the fourth train in Rio Grande project, with an additional 1.5 million tons per year of additional LNG of tech. Acquisition of additional interest in Malaysia. So you know that we entered into Malaysia very recently. So confirming the willingness of Total Energy to build a hub that is perfectly positioned to supply the gas market in Asia in the coming years. And continuing the integration, the upstream gas integration in the US with additional acquisition of dry gas in another . And on top of that, end of 2025, we announced the agreement with Neonext, in fact, to merge our upstream assets with those of Neonext, creating one of the largest oil and gas, or the major oil and gas players in the UK, aiming to deliver synergies. So to summarize, yes, we grow. We are a growing company. So you see here the figures. 2025, 4% upstream growth. You know that the guidance were above 3%. So we are largely above the guidance. At the same time, we keep the discipline. I will come back on the CAPEX. Here you see the figure for OPEX, OPEX per barrel. So the best OPEX per barrel among our peers. $5 per barrel. Of course, it's very important for us to keep this advantage to face a possible low price environment. And very, very important in our views, the fact that we were able to deliver 120% proof reserve replacement rates. That means that we, the proof reserve we have at the end of the year, at the end of 2025, will cover 12 years of 2025 production. On the other pillar, so integrated power, so another year of delivery of our strategy, more than 20% net power production growth, both coming from renewable and from CCGT, from flexible assets. We mentioned here three main achievements of the year. You know the agreement we signed with DPH that will, in fact, accelerate our gas-to-power integration in Europe, supposed to be closed mid of 2026. Stefan will come back on that. So we surfed, I would say, on the wave created by data center to sign 6 terawatt per year PPA with data center, in fact. And implementing our model. So at COD, as you know, we recycle the capex, the capital. And so we successfully signed. different in the UK, in Greece, in Portugal, in France, in 25, recycling the equivalent of $2 billion. Scorecard for 2025. Clearly, we are a growing company, delivering of our objectives. First, more energy, growing energy, clear growth regarding energy production. 5% when you combine the growth coming from oil and gas and the growth coming from electricity. More specifically on the oil and gas, I already mentioned the fact that we achieved close to 4% growth. You know that the targets were above 3%. And for electricity net production, we increased the production by almost 20% between 2024 and 2025, reaching more or less 50 TWh in 2025. Refining utilization rates. So we were clear that during the first semester, ASC has to face some technical incidents, problem of reliability of some of the assets in France or in the US. The second semester, this has been fixed. And so given this performance during the second semester, you see that globally, all in all, over the full year, so refining utilization rate were in line with the targets we had. LNG cells are growing 10% more compared to last year, in line with the growth in production. And finally, on this topic, more energy. So renewable growth installed capacity. So 24 gigawatts of growth renewable capacity at the end of the year. We were at 26 gigawatts end of 24. That means that in the course of 2025, we're able to put into production 8 gigawatts of additional growth renewable capacity. And it is the pace we need to achieve 8 gigawatts per year to achieve the target we have for 2030. So more energy, less emissions. I will not come back on the figures, because already Nicolas presented that. Just to mention, to summarize, that we are able to lower the emissions, maintain scope one and scope two on our operations, while at the same time being a growing company, 5% more energy produced in 2025. More energy, less emissions is good, but it's better, of course, to grow the free cash flow to supply the shareholder returns. We have, of course, two main drivers. The first one, maintaining the discipline on OPEX and maintaining this differentiation advantage we have, having OPEX per barrel at $5 per barrel. And CAPEX, we'll come back on that later. So we were, of course, in the guidance at $17.1 billion. So globally, the CFFO, I think, was not exactly at the level we anticipated when we gave the objective 25, but not very far at $28 billion. So delivering, in our view, a robust cash flow in 2025. So now some figures regarding this 2025 performance. So starting on the left-hand side of the slides, the cash flow and the contribution of the different business units to this performance. So $28 billion of cash flow generated by your operation. You see here the different contributions of exploration and production. Traduction of the growing cash flow and the fact that I will comment that later, the cash flow are accretive. The growth is accretive. Second portion, integrated LNG. So suffering in 2025 in markets with low volatility, but compensating for the downward in prices by additional production. I mentioned to you 10% growth regarding production and sales. Integrated power at $2.6 billion, so in line with our expectations. So we have the target to have a cash flow above $2.5 billion for 2025. And downstream, $6.2 billion, so both ARC and marketing and services. I think it's a demonstration of the resilience of the company and the integration between ERC and marketing and services. Once again, with better utilization rate during the second semester downstream, ERC was able to capture the good margin that we benefited from in the second part of the year. The uses, so I think the yellow parts of the graph, So we used slightly above $17 billion for CapEx, so both organic CapEx acquisition minus divestments. 8 and the shareholder returns with two components, the first one being dividends, so 8.1. So it's the cash outs linked to the dividend taken into account via fixed rates we have in the course of 2025. So it's growing dividends. And we execute the program for an amount of $7.5 billion globally on the full year. The net adjusted income reached $15.6 billion. And so we continue to deliver the best-in-class profitability, so return on equity at $13.6 billion, and the best-in-class ROAC at 12.6%. The net income EFRA, so after taking into account non-recurring adjustments, it's $13.1 billion for 2025. And this has been done. Maintaining strong balance sheets, so the gearing at the end of the year were below 15%, so at 14.7%. So globally, total shareholder return 15.6%, so dividend plus buyback, so representing a payout. When you compare this return to shareholder to the cash flow we generated in 2025, so it's a payout close to 55%. Now, CapEx. So I already mentioned that. So discipline, of course, maintained through the year 2025. So the guidance, 15 to 15.5. And so the final figure, 15.1. 16, sorry. 16. 17, sorry. 17.1, yes. And so this, you see the repetition, the splits between the different businesses. So more or less one-third devoted to new oil and gas projects, and close to 3.5 billion to low-carbon energy, the main component of that being integrated power. This figure is the translation, the traduction, of $16.8 billion spent on organic capex, so the spending on the existing portfolio, the existing assets, plus 3.9 devotee to acquisition, minus 3.6 to divestments. So that means that the M&A was quite balanced in 2025. But if you add the two figures, you end up with a figure at $7.5 billion. So that means that we continue to be very active on our portfolio, divesting mature assets and replacing them by assets with better performance and implementing our strategy regarding, in particular, integrated power. So the main acquisition we made for Integrated Power is VSB, the German renewable player. So I already mentioned the US, Malaysia, and on the opposite side, divestment. So it's mature assets in Nigeria, in Congo, in Nkosa, just to give you these two examples, in Argentina, Vakumerta. assets, and on top of that, all the countries I already mentioned regarding the implementation of our strategy, the recycling of the CapEx, the capital for integrated power. We sold our investment in the US and in Europe. Let's move in more details to look at the upstream performance in 2025. So once again, a growth by 4%. And feed it by, of course, a low decline. We benefited for our portfolio of a decline by around 4% per year. And on top of that, as you know, we have a very deep portfolio. And so in 2025, we were able to put on production additional barrels that globally contributed to 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. And this production is accretive. So it's the demonstration. So we increase the production by 4%. But in a constant environment, we increase the upstream cash flow by 10%. What does it mean? That means that the baseline for our portfolio has, in this environment, $70 per barrel for Brent and $12 per million BTU for gas. So it generates $19 per barrel of CFFO. And the new projects, so I have a list, by the way, on the right-hand side of the slides. So this 150,000-barrel equivalent of additional production has, on average, More than $30 per barrel. So that means that, of course, with the new production, we increase the creativity of the portfolio. And so the difference between this $30 per barrel with the $19 per barrel for the baseline created an additional $700 million in 2025 regarding the CFFO. So integrated LNG, well, it's clear that in 2025, we had a narrowing spread between Asian markets and European markets, so the spread between the GKM and TTF that is lower than before. in most of the cases, below $0.5 per million BTU. So why? Because the market is more efficient. And so now, for obvious reasons, saving freight costs, the US LNG went in 2025 mainly to Europe, and on the opposite, Middle East LNG went majorly to Asia. So in that market, of course, it's generated less possibility of arbitrage between the two markets. And on top of that, we had low volatility. All in all, thanks to the growth, the 10% growth in production and sales I already mentioned for integrated LNG, we were able to more or less offset the low price environment, the low volatility environment, posting for integrated LNG CFA4 in 2025, $4.7 billion, so only 4% below 2024 CFA4. Integrated power, so we continue the execution of the strategy. I think you have here the figure of the progression, the increase between 2021 and 2025, so more than doubling the production between multiplied by three or multiplied by four CFFO and net operating income. And at the end of 2025, we have the ROHA close to 10%. Thank you. So we execute the strategy. Once again, we farm down different assets to recycle the capex, the capital. We sign this EPA acquisition, accelerating our integration in Europe. And we scale up data business with additional relations with tech, signing a PPA with data center to supply them with electricity. So a good achievement, confirming the objective we have for this business segment in 2025. Ordinary share. So you know that on the 8th of December of 2025, I think we will open a new chapter in the history of total energy in the US. So now our ordinary share, so the same share as the share that is listed in Paris is now listed on the Nile, so allowing, in fact, investors to buy the same share either in Paris or in the US. And by the way, by doing that, we have a listing almost around the clock from 9 AM in Paris time to 4.30 in New York time. The objective is clear. We will ease the life of our investors by doing that. We will, of course, try to reach new shareholders that were not able or that do not want to invest in total energy for the air. And so it's the objective we have in the coming months to try to capture additional investors through wealth manager and financial advisors. And on top of that, by the way, by doing that, we have an option to use this listing, these shares listed in New York as a currency for a potential M&A in the U.S. So the scorecards, the benchmark, the performance of total energy compared to the performance of our peers with four main metrics, the first one being the ROAC. Once again, we are the best in class in terms of ROAC. I think for the fourth consecutive years, in our view, it's a clear demonstration that we can be a leader in the transition while delivering top profitability ROAC. Second TSR, so Total Shareholder Returns, Best TSR in 2025 at 28%, so meaning that if you have invested in total share on the 31st December 2024, at the end of 2025, considering the reinvestment of the dividends, you will have a gain of 28%. Proved reserves life index, so very good and very differentiation factor compares mainly to Chevron, Shell, and BP. So we maintain the 12-year reserves. Very good achievements, meaning that with the reserves we have in our portfolio, we are comfortable to feed the growth beyond 2030. An upstream production cost, low cost, $5 per barrel. So it's a clear competitive advantage that we want to keep. I think I will end the presentation by this slide. I've already commented the TSR, so you know pretty well the policy of Total Energy regarding the dividend, so in contributing to this TSR. So in 2025, the performance of the share was best in class, plus 20%. So we strongly believe that our share continues to be under-evaluated. This is, in our view, an illustration that the strategy of total energy is now well understood by the market. And to summarize, growth, accretive growth, discipline on cost, maintain capex as anticipated, and maintaining opex per barrel at low level. And on top of that, delivering all the growth we have in mind on both pillar, oil, oil and gas, on one hand. integrated power on the other. Thank you.
I think... Thank you, Jean-Pierre. That's for 2025. That's the past. So let's speak about as a bridge between both 2025 and 2026, but Namibia, which was... We didn't make a special session like on EPH because it came late in December, but it's an opportunity to come back on what we have built with these... deal with agreement with GALP in Namibia, which will be for us, obviously, a new major hub for future. Arnold, the floor is yours.
Thank you, Patrick. Ladies and gentlemen, so let me start by setting the context for our progress in Namibia over the past few years. Our exploration and business development efforts in the Orange Basin have led to significant discoveries that are now forming the foundation of a new deepwater golden province for TotalEnergies. And so today, I'm really thrilled to walk you through the steps already taken and what lies ahead. So here you have the core of our position. So across two licenses, PL56 and PL83, we have already confirmed substantial discovered resources. We begin with two operated deepwater projects, Venus and Mupen. I'll come back to them in more details. Together, what we have already in hand is 1.5 billion barrels of discovered resources. And we see major additional prospects in potential currently being matured. These two projects form the basis of a new deepwater hub for total energies, enabling us to plan for future development, of course, but around shared infrastructure, optimized logistics and economies of scale. So this is really the beginning and materializing the beginning of our presence in this highly prospective basin. I'll come back to this important milestone, which was the transaction with GALP. So last December, we concluded this cashless transaction with GALP, which we expect to close by the summer, mid-this year. First, for us, this deal crystallizes the value of our discoveries. It strengthens our operating positions, and of course, it opens new opportunities in the country. So on our side, with the transaction, we secure 40% operated interest in PL83, which is the home to Mopane, with already resources identified to end up in a development, and more than 1.5 billion barrels of exploration potential opportunities on the same block. In return, what we gave to GALP is 10% interest in PL56, which is the home to Venus, and slightly less interest in the neighboring PL91 exploration block. Plus, we will carry them for 50% of their expenditures for exploration, appraisal, and for the first development on the block. So as a result, TotalEnergies becomes the anchor player in one of the world's most dynamic basins with stronger alignment across the value chain. which is illustrated here on the slide. It shows how Venice and Maupin make TotalEnergies the reference operator in Namibia, definitely. As you know, with 10 FPSOs already operated across Africa, with one new being in construction currently, we definitely benefit from a broad deep-water projects experience in the region. This enables us to deliver fast and reliable execution, proven low-cost development, strong long-term relationship with contractors, and efficient scaling of procurement, logistics, engineering. This experience, you know, was definitely an important factor in our selection as operator of PL83 and for the authorities of Namibia to bring their full support to the transaction. They definitely see us as a credible partner in the Abyssinian. On the left-hand side, the production profile shows how Venice and then Maupin could sequentially ramp up from 2030 to reach about 350 KBD of production with additional upside thereafter. So our objective is clear and got it. We want to establish a sustainable multi-FPSO hub in Namibia to maximize synergies for the benefits of all the stakeholders. Turning to Venus in more detail. So Venus is our first development. Venus is fully appraised with around 750 million barrels of resources. The engineering is well advanced. The feed is complete. And today, with recent EPC bids, we have confidence in visibility on cost. Key parameter of the project, so it's a 150 KBD plateau production with cost below $20 per barrel. In terms of scope 1 plus 2 emission intensity, we are 115 kg per barrel, featuring the same low emission design as in our Grand Mangou Suriname FPSO. full electric architecture, centralized power gen, close flares, vapor recovery units, etc. We are now fully engaged with the Namibian authorities to progress towards an FID by mid-2026, allowing a first oil in 2030. So, Venice is expected to become the first FPSO development in the country and is really the opener of the basin as a new producing region. The second project is Mopaine, which is progressing in parallel. We have current estimates from 800 million to 1,100 million barrels of resources, which will allow production above 200 kbd. We plan in the short term an exploration and appraisal campaign, so in 26 and 27, to refine the development concept. and confirm the size of the first phase, including, so in 26, the Mopan extension well, and thereafter, two appraisal wells. Like Venice, with Mopan, we target emissions intensity below 15 kg per barrel and cost below $20 a barrel, of course, taking full benefit from the synergies with Venice. So with potential FID in 2028, MOPAN is a second pillar of our NABBR strategy, which will contribute significantly in production beyond 2030, and with additional potential from prospects such as, as you can see on the map, Quiver or Sobrero in the same license. Finally, let me zoom out and have a look at our broader exploration portfolio in the basin. So beyond Venus and Maupin, we see around 10 billion barrels of exploration potential across multiple prospects. So to the south, with our licenses, the DWAB and 3B4B, and material well-defined prospects in South Africa. And to the north, with the recent signature of our entry into PL104, that expands our operated acreage in Namibia. So as you can see, with discovered resources, prospective upsides, and strong operational capabilities, we think we are well positioned to lead the next development cycle in the Orange Basin. So in summary, Venus and Mopaine are large, competitive, low-emissions deepwater projects, For Namibia, these projects are important. They are the projects that represent the first steps toward establishing domestic oil industry in the country. And with wider exploration portfolio, we have meaningful upsides in the future. So this all together forms the foundation of a new golden province for total energies with a multi-FPSO hub with strong long-term potential, all operated by total energies.
Thank you, Arnaud. I think you would have some questions, but we gave you more insights. I was myself in Namibia last week and we discussed with the authorities and what Arnaud said is true. We are considered now as a major player there and it gave us a good momentum to move forward with these projects. Now it is the floor to Stéphane. We will make a second focus on one of the other major activities, which is, of course, taking benefit from this AI and data center revolution. Stéphane, the floor is yours.
thank you patrick good afternoon everyone so we'll cover two subjects one is how we are going to power the ai revolution with our integrated power supply and the second part will be how we plan to boost our operation by using ai so i start by the first subject with a simple message We are creating additional value by providing to data center fit-for-purpose solutions. How do we do that? What do we sell them? There are three types of products with three levels of sophistication. The first one is a usual corporate PPA as produced. It's quick to build, fast for them to connect, but it's not baseload. It's just 100% green and quite competitive. The second product is to provide them with clean, firm power. What does that mean? That means a baseload profile, what exactly they need and what they are going to consume. Supply mostly by renewables so that 100% of the volume of energy which is consumed is coming from green production. but at the same time matching their profile of consumption and the third product which is new and which is quite specific to data center actually is the fact that we can provide them as well with a solution to have access to land to build their data center and not every land a specific land which is close to a grid where we have an access to the to the connection and where it's going to be fast for them to build their data center and to get the power supply they need. I will give you an example of that. Typically, the first kind of product is what we have sold to Microsoft and Amazon AWS in 2025. Second type of project is what we are, for example, doing with Casa Dos Ventos in Brazil. And the first one is what we have just signed with Google in Texas and with Prospect notably in Spain. Why does that matter? Because with those kind of offers, the data center is able to create more value, because they are going to have a faster time to market, and second, they are going to have a lower cost of supply. And when you create value, you are able to share at least part of it. And that's the way we are able to increase the level of the PPA we are selling, extracting a bit of premium, around 10% of premium of what we sell if we were selling the same electron to any type of industry. So there is a direct impact, which helps us to upgrade our double digit return on our capex. And there is as well an indirect impact because you are bringing consumption locally, which helps to develop your pipe of projects. That's one. And second, to raise the price where the power price where you are, which benefit to your other assets. So all that is not an ambition. It's not on paper. It's a reality. We have signed, us and our partner through our JV, four gigawatts of project backed by data center demand in 2005 and in 25 and 26. You can see the geographic spread. One third was done directly by us. Other were done by Clearway and Casa dos Ventos in Brazil with a variety of type of player. The big GAFA, but as well some specific data center developer. All that will generate $250 million of per year of EBITDA when all the projects are materialized. I'm going to focus on two specific projects. The first one is what we just signed with Google in Texas. It's a deal that comes after what we did in Malaysia. So we are going to build a 1 gigawatt farm. It has started. We are going to sell them the 2 terawatt hour produced by that 1 gigawatt farm. So I would say that's quite classical. But in addition, Google has the option and should exercise this option to install a data center close to our solar panel production. So on our land, what we are going to provide them with is a direct access to our solar production. Direct access to the grid as well, because we have asked to be able to withdraw some power from the grid and should obtain it soon. And as well, the possibility to install some battery so as to smooth And with all that, they are going to be able to go fast to the market next year and as well to lower their cost of supply, notably because they will lower the grid fee they are going to pay. So that's one type of example where, thanks to that, we are able to sell to Google PPA at a slightly higher price than the average price in the market. Second example which is interesting is what we do in Brazil. Here we are blending solar, wind, we have in our portfolio, hydro, we purchased from the market, to provide data center with clean farm power, so 24-7 baseload supply, 100% green. And not only we are doing that, but with CASA, we are as well providing to the data center land near a connection where we have secured that connection to the grid. so that they can build fast their data center. And in addition, in Brazil, they are going to benefit from a tax-favored situation on one side and on another side by participating as well in equity to our project benefit from other subsidy. So all that make a very, very competitive offer. And once again, for us, what is the advantage? We improve our return. We find the consumption to develop the multi-gigawatt pipe that we have, and we create as well a demand in the region of Brazil where otherwise part of the assets would be developed in several years. Now we can develop them now and have a faster development pace. I move now to my second part on what are we going to do with AI for our own operation. First idea, there is no AI program if you don't have a strong data platform. And so we have spent a lot of time and effort in 2025. Namita and Wantech have spent actually a lot of effort and time on that, was to build the foundation of our data platform with two ideas in mind. One, we want to multiply, and we are going to multiply by 10 the data point we have on our assets, because AI is really about a lot of data and very precise data. So that's one aspect. And second, we want to have them real time, because we want to be able to act in real time when we manage our asset. And so to do that, we have signed big contract with Aspen Tech, which is going to deploy in on all our 40 of our upstream sites and 16 of our refining and chemical sites. It was already done for the integrated power aspect. So that's the layer of how to get the data. And then we have signed as well with Cognite on how to transform, enrich, store, expose those data so that we can then add the last layer, which will be based on AI to, at the end of the day, uplift our production and our availability. So that's ongoing and should be fully deployed by the end of next year. That's one aspect. The second aspect is that when you have the data, you need to do something with the data. And so we have work on focusing our effort, and this time more on a top-down approach than bottom-up, on three programs. One is using digital for HSE. You had an example with the safety moment, where we are using digital to improve monitoring and reduce emission. There are two other programs, one which is on the digital plant, how to improve the way we run our plant. And the last program is on integrated power modeling. There is a huge revolution on the modelization. Just to take an example, with AI, cut by two the time you need to forecast weather in a quite convincing way. And you can imagine when you trade short-term power, what's that chance to get to where in advance when you make your weather forecast. And that's just the beginning. Obviously, to do that, we need to increase our capacity. And we have made the choice to do that by betting on India, by building a global competency center in India to be able to develop those programs. I don't have to explain why India, but our idea is one that will be our center with our own staff. Second idea, we want to manage all that to give them tasks end to end, which means that they will be fully accountable for all those programs. And we should reach a critical mass of at least 500 engineers by 2027. That has already started. And that's the way. So we plan to use AI to transform the way we act. One discovery, though, my presentation was not yet done by an adjunct. So that's probably for next year. Thank you. And with that, I leave the floor to Patrick.
Thank you, Stéphane, because next week, each executive of the company will be trained to have at least one adjunct with him. I don't know which one I will have. It will be difficult for him to follow me, but we'll see. So I will take the last part of the presentation now.
Thank you, Stefan, and thank you, Namita, by the way, because the second part is...
largely led by Namita. She knows very well India, by the way. So let's move to the 2026 objective. We are not fully on time, but I will try to catch up. If I know I like to speak, so I'm not sure we'll catch up completely. So 2026, in fact, is a very clear continuation year for 2025. The program is the same. We continue to deliver on growth. growth in oil and gas, growth in integrated power. This growth, you will see, is also accretive. The new barrels continue, and our cash flow from operation will grow quicker than the growth itself. And at the same time, because we think the environment might be more I would say challenging in 2026. We have, as you know, we told you that in September, launched a cash-saving program in order to strengthen the resilience. I would say as well that you will see in the presentation the integrated power business is growing. We'll reach $3 billion of cash flow. And by itself, in fact, because it's independent of the cycles of oil and gas, it reinforced the resilience of the global model of the company. So world of the markets, I will not tell you what the price is. By the way, we are planning everything at 60. Now we are at 71 or 72. So things are better. But the fundamentals, what we think is that, yes, there is a demand. No more than 25, a little less than $1 billion per day. So it's a little less than 1%. But it's continuing. We don't see any peak demand coming in front of us at this stage. I know it will come. We saw also, and we've seen, in fact, 25 were, in fact, quite stable, around $70. People speak about volatility. The reality is that it went down, but it was moving quite around the $69 per barrel. We've seen at the beginning of the year, But the fundamentals that we think, which is a good supply, and the events in Venezuela, we went down to 60. But then reactions, reactions of twofold. Then OPEC decided not to stop relinquishing more oil in the market. And also, we begin to see in the US, US shale oil producer begin to reduce drilling. So at $60, balance is not yet there. Additionally, on that, you had other events. Geopolitically, I think the most important one is maybe not Iran. For me, it's... The fact that most of the countries now are serious about taking, putting sanctions against Russian oil in a more stringent way. We've seen that. And this is an impact on the market. Today, you have more and more Russian oil on the sea, which does not find a buyer. The Indians are not buying, refining, refining Russian crude oil from March to April. So this we see as an impact, I think, on the market. Remember that Russian oil export in the market is 3 to 4 million barrel of oil per day. So it's really a matter. We still keep a view that fundamentals, good supply, despite what I just say, good demand, but still supply. We plan at $60 per barrel. And this explains a certain number of decisions that I will present to you. On the gas side, I would say 26 is more a transition year. We were at 400 million tons per year of capacity of energy in 22. 25, we were at 435. So in three, four years, only 30 million tons, which was even not enough to absorb the increase of European demand, the European demand went up from 70, 65 million tons in 22 to 115, so has increased by 50 million tons. And this year, in 26, yes, there is some capacity which will be put on stream in the US, in Qatar. But we think an additional 35 million tons will come. Transition year, which means we translated it by moving TTF from $12 per million last year to 10, but not yet lower. By the way, today, with wintertime, we are still at 12, but we've seen it could go down. I think transition as well, because there is one event, which is the fact that the EU has decided to ban Russian gas from 27. And this will give an additional demand in the EU from 115 to 150 million tons. You have an additional 35 million tons per year of energy coming in 27, which is almost the increase of capacity of 26. So yes, we will see this market will see, for sure, the global capacity moving from 400 to 600 by 29, 2030. But the impact on the prices, our view, will be gradual. And 27 will not yet be, I think, the low cycle of this gas price, of the energy price. I think that we know we have taken actions to face it. 26 are objectives. So again, the growth, 5% energy growth globally, 3% on oil and gas. I don't think we'll reach four. By the way, I said to Nicolas, if you think you can reach four, tell me now, because the market likes the future, not just the past results. So tell me now, but he did not tell me that. So let's free. On electricity net production, we should grow by 25%, about 60 terawatt hour. Of course, there is a link to when we'll close the EPH deal, but I'm comfortable with this objective. Refining utilization rate, the real objective will come back from Vincent and his team is to stop having some issues on big assets and availability plus 2%. So refining utilization rate is maybe not the best factor to translate it into economics. LNG cells, we will continue to grow our production 6%. So it will be translated by cells. In the cells of LNG of Stefan teams, there are some spot volumes. So this is why we keep, let's keep about 44 million tons. And on the renewable gross installed capacity, 34 to 42 plus 8 gigawatts. This is the roadmap of the teams of integrated power. Less emissions in methane. I think we'll reach sooner than we thought, the minus 80%. We have put a target at minus 70%, but every year we do 5% more. So we'll continue to deploy the whole program. And we are the only company to have deployed 11,000 devices to make a permanent monitoring. So we have a clear leadership. And I think it's a real direct contribution to climate. You know, the heating power of methane is much higher than over greenhouse gas. So I think this is a good focus for all the company and our capacity to demonstrate results. For the other parameters, we continue to... to lower scope 1 and 2 from operated facilities and the lifecycle carbon intensity of our cells, minus 19 to minus 20 percent, depending, of course, on the production. So we are on the way to reach the minus 25 percent we want to have by 2030, continuing to deploy the strategy and growing the integrated power business. On the upper parameter for growing free cash, I will come back on it because it's important. I read your comments this morning. Some of you were surprised about more than $26 billion. I think I will explain to you why we've come from $27.8 billion in 25 years. at $69 per barrel and $12 per billion BTU down to $26. If you take the environment at $60 and $10, you would find more, something like $25. There are some reasons behind why we think we will reach more than $26 billion. In fact, it's linked to the accretiveness of this growth of oil and gas production. In two years, and I will come back on it, we will have, in fact, compensated $10 per barrel of oil price because of the growth, but also because this growth is accretive in terms of cash flow per barrel compared to where it was two years ago. And last but not least, an important target for all of us, and I will discuss on the board, we want to maintain the 15% gearing. which will lead to the management of the cash flow of the company. And I know we say less than 20. I saw the reaction. We listened to all your investors in 2025. We have a model, which is to maintain this 15%, and we have ways to achieve it. I will come back on it. You know, there might have some volatility during the year because of the seasonality of working capital, but please, no panic. We'll end at 15. You know, we deliver what we say. Trust us. We've demonstrated that year after year. A word on the cash savings program, which, in fact, is contributing to the free cash of the company directly. We said $7.5 billion in September. We increased it to $12.5 billion because, as you know, the guidance we gave you in September around $16 billion of capex has been diminished to 15, like we see for 26, because in the meantime, we have announced the EPH deal, which is in share. But at the end of the day, it's an effort of investment. So we will save that cash issuing your shares. It's, in fact, an issuance of sort of capital increase we are doing. So we don't want to double count it. We are also working on the OPEX part. So for 26, because I know that in September we gave you objectives without some color in it, this is a program. We have $500 million savings. Part of it coming from integrated power, because the fact that we found out allows us to rationalize part of the assets we are organized and the way we don't organize. So $200 million of fixed costs will be saved on that part, and also both on upstream and downstream. Many initiatives and marketing and services, reorganization central services, headquarters streamlining. So we're doing the organization as we were when the price was down in 2016, 17. In the meantime, the price went up. So we have trend. Teams have a little increase. So we streamlined that. And initiatives all across the board. So that's for 26. We have also worked to launch new initiatives in order to continue feed this cash-saving program for future years. Some of them are mentioned there. One has been mentioned. So we want the growth in integrated power and digital AI to be supported by this global competence center in India, which, of course, will offer competitive costs. But primarily, it's because it will give us access to talent and to accelerate the growth. And we need to have more people to deliver efficiently these various programs. So that's one initiative. Second one is that we are reviewing all non-proximity-dependent services inside the company and move that in low-cost country, I would say. We had a number of service, either in IT, in engineering, in different areas, where we discovered we're reviewing it. You need to review permanently what you do. Some of them, which are not dependent on proximity to our own people. are still delivered by high-cost service contractors. And we could move them. We will move them. We think there is more than $100 million of savings, probably more than that. We will apply the same philosophy to all these segments. Another one, which is we have now established what we call the procurement factories in Romania, which is, in fact, able to procure on some framework contracts. We have this negotiated with plenty suppliers. And this one has been tested. Now we'll make it mandatory for all the LBUs. We'll move, when I say all of them, I know it's more. We have to be pragmatic. 20 of them by 27, and then more than it. There is quite a good potential to centralize the sourcing of equipment and benefiting from the size of the company So probably at least 10% of the $2 billion. There is more to come behind. So this is a third initiative. And the last one is to see how we could mutualize some support services across some LBUs, regionally, for example, in Africa, or even in France, where we continue to have different refineries, all support services are in each site. And there is probably some gains. There are not probably. There will be some gains. So that's, again, taking the opportunity to review the way we work to continue to be more efficient and resilient. CapEx for 26, $15 billion, as announced, 15, where the split is there. On integrated power, low carbon, in cash, it's $3 billion. If you add 1 fifth, I would say one year of EPA shares, the effort is equivalent to four, but $3 billion. And on the other areas, I think it's quite similar to 2025. Let me be clear, there is no reduction of the growth ambition. All the projects which have been launched will be delivered within the budget. It's a question to be efficient on the way we work. We revised it from 17 to 16 September, now 16 to 15 because of EPH. We are, in this figure, we are planning to divest one billion more than what we will acquire. So just to be clear. And we have a flexibility which are identified to go down to 14, in particular, I would say, on the acquisition part, if we were willing, if we were facing a lower than $50 per barrel environment. So that's the program for CAPEX. Growth, I mentioned 3% for oil and gas. It will come from, not only some of the growth comes from the startups of 25 reaching their plateau of production, like Encore, which is not yet a plateau, or Merufo. So part of this is coming from, is embarked by the startups of last year. New startups on this year, we have identified five projects. or six even. One is La Paz Southwest in Brazil, Mabrouk in Libya. They are not very big ones. Rataoui is more important. Rataoui phase one. We increase the production from Rataoui field in Iraq to 120,000 barrels per day. Then we have a upgrade of production in Algeria, around 55,000 per day. Northeast in Qatar, we plan it for Q3. And Uganda, we are planning it for Q3. Now it's Q4. We'll start the first one before year end, 26. This 3%, and this is probably the most important slide, in fact, will be translated in terms of cash flow by a growth of 7%. So again, as Jean-Pierre told you, in 2025, the 4% growth of production was translated in 10% growth of cash flow because of this higher CFFO per barrel of the new projects. In 2026, the 3% will be translated in 7% according to our planning. Maybe a little more, we'll see. But this, of course, will help us. And in fact, when you make the math at the end of this combination, we will have a cash flow from operation from upstream at $60 per barrel in 26, which will be equivalent to what we would have done in 24 at $70 per barrel. We have offset $10 per barrel thanks to this growth and this accretive growth. So I think this is a strong message of this presentation. Maybe this was a figure that you didn't have in mind. We were not so clear. I had the question in September. And now, in the meantime, we have managed to put all that together. We don't stop. We never stop exploring. I know that it's a new music, exploring, for on our side. Since the last 10 years, we spent $1 billion per year of exploration appraisal. We have done two big, nice discoveries the last 10 years, in particular, Grand Morgue and now Venus, on which we will work to sanction the project, as Arnaud explained to you, in 26. We have been quite active to have access to new licenses in 25, the US, Algeria, Liberia, Congo, Nigeria, Namibia, Malaysia, Indonesia. We have a program of interesting wells, I would say, for 26, in particular Nigeria, Congo, Namibia, but also in Malaysia. And then some, I would say, more frontier wells, like in PNG, Indonesia, which will be drilled this year. So the efforts continue, and Nicolas Mavila has taken the lead of all these teams in order to maintain, I hope, the success rate of the company in exploration. On integrated energy, we will face a year where, on one side, we have a growth of production of energy, 6%. We have two projects starting up, by the way, in 26. One is Northfield East in Qatar. The other one is the famous Energia Costa Azul in Barra, California. We're waiting for it. It's a little late, but it's planned for Q3 as well, with quite a good offtake, by the way, of both. Those will contribute to the growth growth of the sales of Stefan's team. So on one side, we have this growth. On the other side, we have lower the assumption on the gas price, TTF down from 12 to 10. So of course, this has an impact, I would say, and also the LNG price. If we were at $60 per barrel earned a ttf of 10 we the average energy price of ourselves will be eight uh we have announced 8.5 for q1 so that's the the math which gave us compared to 9 in 25 so when you make this 10 12 percent decrease on the sales and on the other side six percent increase of the growth We are planning to have a cash flow from operations from integrated energy around $4.5 billion. This year was 4.6, 4.7, I think, so more or less stable stability, but the growth being compensated by a lower environment. On integrated power, of course, the year, but I will not come back, will be dominated by the closing of this deal with EPH, which will provide us, its figures have to be remembered, on a yearly basis, 15 terawatt hour per year of net power production and $750 million per year of available cash flow. So of course, these figures have to be integrated. And it's a major step for us, with potentially capacity to grow beyond, because there is a pipeline coming with the 14 gigawatt gas pipeline fill it. It will be translated, so for 2026, production about 60 terawatt hour. The cash flow is expected to be about $3 billion. As we plan to have net capex 2.5 to 3, normally 26 should be, for the first time, contributive to the dividend, free cash positive for this activity. I say normally because we have an uncertainty on the date of the closing. We are not completely in line. But we are, for sure, if it's not 26, it could be 26. But 27, for sure, this business will be free cash positive. And I think it's a turning point, obviously, in the way you could valorize the business inside the company. It will contribute to the dividend. Refining and chemicals. I reported to you in September that we had three bad pupils, which were Port Arthur, Donge, and Normandy. Now, this one, the good news is that the bad pupils are in better shape, if I say. Port Arthur, the problems have been identified. On the reformer's team, there was a big, large turnaround, which was delivered on time. And now, Port Arthur is back on track with positive performance. The Donge refinery has suffered during several years. We will start up this famous Horizon project, which is an investment in order to be able to produce gasoline on spec and not on the export market. So that's February, March. That's coming out. So again, we reach a much better utilization rate in November. We can consider that back on normal availability. And the cracker problems in Normandy has always been repaired. And so again, this platform in Normandy is back to, I would say, good availability. By the way, you've seen in the fourth quarter results that refining and chemicals have really been able to capture a very good margin, $11 per barrel. The good news is that we have captured it, which means that, yes, the plants are now available. And that's, I think, good news. The global program that Vincent and his teams are implementing, which is called Boost 27, is to increase the availability by two points. And we'll follow that, these KPIs, very carefully along the year. And we'll report to you. Unfortunately, now margins are lower back. But you know very clearly, this is the integration when price of oil is going up at 72. We are margin today around 4 to 5. So we have less environment. But again, it's part of the we'll gain on one side. We have less on the other side. This is why we think it's good to be integrated. Marketing and services is very growing steadily, $100 million of cash per year. So 2.3 in 24, 2.4 in 25. We plan 2.5 in 26. Despite the fact, I remind you, that we have streamlined some of the networks in Europe and in Africa. We have a special focus there on lubricants. We have reorganized the lubricants business unit in a sort of, I would say, independent business unit company. There is no, don't think there is any plan to divest it. We love lubricants. It's very cash, it's a super cash cow, very little capital employed, good business, stable market share, and don't try to rush to gain market share, better to manage your margins and keep your good margins. So we are good, and I think the focus on these units is giving us ideas on how to develop. We are very focused today on the auto market to have more emphasis on the industry markets. That's the idea behind this new organization. On the networks, the focus will be done to really move forward on developing the non-fuel revenues, which is a source of potential cash. So the global picture for 26, to conclude, is that we will generate, as I said, that $60 per barrel, $10 per million BTU, refining margin at $5, about $26 billion. We will invest 15. So we have a free cash of $11 billion. dividend more or less 8.5 dependent on the exchange rate, a billion of buyback. You see the equation there. The news that what we want to illustrate is that between 25 and 26, if you rebase 25 at the same environment price, we have an additional free cash of 4 billion, 2 billion coming from the capex. And the other $2 billion are coming a little more than one from the upstream, the growth accretiveness, 1.1, around $500 million from integrated power, then marketing and services for $100, and then refining and chemicals, which is planning at the same environment because of better viability to have an additional $300 to $400 million. So that's why we'll have, again, this resilience. And we'll be able to have the same free cash at $60 in 26 that we had in 25 at $69 per barrel. That's what I said. Company is more resilient and able to distribute Dividends. So the dividends coming on the dividends. So Bauda's decision, as decided yesterday, to come back to what was a traditional way, by the way, in total energies. And to be clear, until 22, where we were the last, I mean, the final dividend, because it's not a quarterly dividend. In French way, it's a final dividend. We have intermediate dividends in the French system that we distribute quarterly. A final one is equal to the three previous ones. We have departed from this tradition last three years because we had a clear visibility on high oil price, so we were confident. The board prefers to be a little more cautious, but there is no signal on it. It gives, by the way, a growth of the dividend of 5.6% per year in euro, 13% in dollar. When I compare that to my peers, we are good position in terms of growing the dividend. And we will, of course, announce what will be the growth of the quarterly dividend by end of April. Board decided to have a better view of one quarter, see the market. But no message there. The idea is not to keep it at the same level. It's just a question to come back to the traditional manner to manage these dividends. So that's the point. And I think the 5% there is probably a good guidance. On the buyback, you We have announced you $3 to $6 billion again at between $60 and $70 per barrel in September. We reset that buyback guidance. I'm adding, because I had a lot of questions during my . But at $50 per barrel, there will be no buyback. So the answer is quite easy. I don't try to make in between. Don't ask me. There is no mathematical formula. And today, at this stage, the board has taken the same attitude. be able to buy by 3 to 6. We don't know where we'll land the price of all crude oil. So we took, I would say, a flexible approach by starting a first quarter at the bottom of the guidance. And then if we see that the price remain around above $70, We'll have opportunity to, I would say, increase it. But I think it's better to increase than to decrease, you know, my view on these markets. Good news are better than bad news. So we'll skip in the guidance. We took the low range because, again, we don't have a full visibility on it. I would also say that the second message is important, is the one on priority to gearing. We have listened to investors loud and clear. So this 15% has been clearly is an anchor point. And you can see on the math that it's matched with more or less, at $60, it matched more or less with $3 billion of buybacks. But this will be, I would say, the idea that we don't increase the net debt to finance a buyback will be part of the equation of the way we will allocate the cash flow in 2026 coming forward. So that's, I would say. Again, we have... The CFFO is resilient. We have a clear investment, and we will execute the $15 billion. The dividend is now will be . We have a little uncertainty, of course, on the exchange rate, even if my view is that it will continue to weaken, but we'll see. It has an impact on us. And again, as I said, keep in mind the gearing sustainability, which could go up to 3%, 3 billion of working capital. We anticipate 2 to 3 billion for the first quarter. That represents easily 2% to 3% or 2.5%, 3% of gearing. So again, as I said, no panic. So to finish this presentation, you know this slide. We just updated it. I think we offer, and we continue to offer, a clear and consistent strategy, which is, yes, differentiated from ,, but differentiated in both ways. On the oil and gas, we deliver a growth, an accreted growth. And I think it's important, the medium and long-term view, again, we have renewed, again, by more than 1% of proven reserve. I remind you, the last three years, 140, 150, 120%. So the capacity to continue to identify new resources to sanction projects is there. And I'm very confident with the pipeline we have in front of us of FIDs to be taken in 26 and 27 that will maintain this track record. I think this is probably one of the best foundation for investors within TotalEnergies. And the other differentiation is about this integrated power pillar. which is again benefiting from a good demand for electricity, even in our Western countries, and also benefiting from its growth, and it will contribute to dividends, if not 26, 27 for sure. Thank you for your attention, and we're ready to take your questions.
So let's move to the Q&A. So raise the hand if you want to ask questions. Be rushed.
Hi, it's Biraj Borkutari at RBC. Thank you for the comprehensive presentation. The first one was just on Namibia as you visited there. We know for Venus you were looking for an extension to the concession. Could you just talk about Mopan and whether the fiscal conditions today are sufficient for you to take an FID and whether you're looking for any improvement there? Any comments that would be appreciated and then... The second question is just on your LNG portfolio, and specifically, Jamal, you were quoted today around sanctions and the lack of ability to divert the cargoes. In the past, I think you said you could divert some to Asia and keep some. So what's your latest understanding of how those sanctions will be enforced? Thanks.
OK. Namibia. First again, the good news is that because we made this transaction with GAP, the authorities perceive us as, I would say, unavoidable. So we are there, and we will be the one, the company, which will help them to establish the oil and gas industry. So the dialogue, even on Venus, was much more I would say engaging. You know, it's a new administration. It's a new country to oil and gas, so we have to learn. But they see us as the engine of capacity to deliver it. And I would say we explained to them that we have an opportunity because now we have received the tenders. And honestly, we are within the ballpark for the capex we were anticipating, which is good news, because there is also more appetite now. from contractors to transact with TotalEnergies, they see us again. So this deal has generated a lot of, I would say, a good virtuous circle for us. So maybe I'm optimistic, but we have in front of us as well, the Namibian authorities organize themselves now in order to be able to engage with our team. So we are working team. So the idea that we could sanction by middle of the year, we see if we can deliver, but clearly it is on the program. blessed by the president, and we'll see if we can reach the point where we can sanction that. On Mopane, it's very different. Mopane has a permeability, which is much easier. Again, we are facing a development which is, I would say, more or less a sort of grand mogul development. So no, and again, it works. With the capex we have in mind and the fiscal, it works without having to negotiate plenty of elements. The point on Mopane is more that we know it's big. We don't know if it's very big or big. So the idea of the appraisal program, is it 800, 700, 800 million barrels, or is it 1.1, 1.2? So we need to... Because, in fact, the last wells they drilled going on the southwest discovered clearly an extension, so... We need to see up to which point is going this extension, because this could influence the way we develop the field. So we don't want to make some. That's the idea of the three wells, which have been completely, by the way, completely aligned with GALP on this program. So again, the idea is that we'll be able to win it. And if we do that, we should be able to sanction that by 28 and then moving forward. So the idea is to have one project and the other one moving behind. And there are, obviously, synergies. And from total energies, by the way, it will also help to discuss all this Venus discussion, because we have the perspective not only to have Venus, which was a little constrained, but to have more than that. So in terms of the way we will approach this fiscal discussion, it helps everybody. And I think we have engaged in a smart and good way. So 26, for sure, for us. Focus on Namibia will be important. And again, we have the opportunity to deploy our competence there in a very efficient way. Yamal. First, 26 will be 26. So 26, there is no sanction. Short-term, no, we don't have short-term deals with them. We make only the long-term contracts. So 26 will be as per it. For 27, there are one thing which is clear. No more import of EU in the EU. So this contract will be dilated. In fact, today, legally, we have a question mark. Because the way it's written, there is a question mark. Is it only import to EU, or is it import everywhere in the world? That means is a European company, like TotalEnergies, forbidden to manage any Russian energy? The intent was not this one, initially, what we understood from the text. But there is the way it's written. Today we are obliged to have entered, we have engaged with, I would say, the French Treasury and the Commission, the EU Commission, to have a clarification. And so I cannot fully answer to your questions. Maybe we'll really have to just give up the marketing of any Russian LNG. Then we'll have to obey, obviously. It was not our understanding, but the way it's written, we could have that understanding. So we are willing to clarify that point. So at this stage, I cannot tell you more on this one. What will remain is that even if we cannot market, we can remain shareholder of Yamal, which is another issue for us. Because, you know, Yamal for us is a source of two business, being the shareholder of the company itself, plant, even if difficult to get some dividends, but it's an activity, and then the marketing part. The sanction only covers today the marketing part. So there is no force majeure, there is no rules which would force us to exit from Yamal. So that's where we are for Yamal. Matt?
Thanks, everybody. Matt Lofting at JPM. Two questions, please. First, you talked several times about the benefits of the higher margin barrels and that sort of bridging apart of the $10 per barrel, 26 versus 24. No barrels are born equal, so I wondered if you could just expand on that a bit in terms of the key sources, geologically, fiscally, size of assets, et cetera, when you think about the growth versus the base portfolio. And then second, I just wanted to ask you about M&A. I noticed during JP's comments, he talked or referenced the U.S., listed shares and that potentially being a sort of a source of supporting M&A in the US in the future is obviously a province that historically the companies have often been pretty prudent on the view on valuations around so any thoughts there would be appreciated
you have no surprise we have been clear that we want to increase our gas extreme gas in the us so it's quite clear we have done different deals we still have i would say a gap of almost one bcfd so we can do it by many small d so we can do it in other ways so we are studying that what gp don't tell you we will do it just told you that we have a currency we could make some M&A in the US. And you know, when you look in the US, it's better to make deals with shares. The upside is with 10%, you can do a deal. In cash, it's much more expensive because of fiscal regime. So that's one of the idea. So we'll see if it works or not. We have no... No more comment on that. But the idea to continue to find access to upstream gas in the US, that's a clear priority for us. It was in 25. It still remains to be clear. And then on the end margin, yes. If you put the slide 10. There was a famous $30. I was sure about the questions. I will not give you all the details. But you know, you have some oil fields and you have some gas fields. Generally, the margin of the oil fields is much better than of the gas fields, I can tell you. And the oil fields which are there are two in the U.S. Gulf of America. So no surprise, West Gulf of America is delivering quite high margin because fiscal terms are low compared to others. And you have Brazil, which is also giving some good cash barrels. So that's the two ones. So I think, and then the gas generally are lower, are more traditionally one. It's also true that in the mix, it's not there, but we are replacing barrels from the North Sea or barrels from Nigeria, SPDC, GV, which honestly don't have a big, have a low margin. So we replace these type of barrels by barrels which have a much lower, even the gas barrels have a better margin for some of them than what we had in the portfolio. So that's also, I would say, a mix of barrels which we grow in the portfolio.
Okay. Iran? Iran?
Thank you, Irene. If I go back to the cash accretive barrels, if we think about value as not cash flow but free cash flow, is there anything we can say about the capex of the new barrels in comparison with legacy oil and gas, and therefore the free cash flow generation of the new barrels. And then my second question on integrated power I mean, obviously, it will be a major, major milestone to turn a relatively young and very fast-growing business into free cash flow positive this year or next year. When I look at the renewable subsector of utilities, they're all cash negative and they remain cash negative, perhaps with one exception. So I wanted to understand what it is that you have done so very differently to companies that have been in that business for far longer periods. than you, some of which are much bigger than you are.
I can reverse the question. Why don't they do like us? I don't know. I know my figure. I don't have a huge experience. Our board is asking us permanently to make some benchmarks on these big companies, but the size of the business makes it quite difficult for us to do it. Honestly, I mean, maybe Stéphane has a recipe. It's a mix of, I mean, again, the integration delivers the global cash, In 2026, the 3 billion, we consider it will be 60% coming from the upstream. What we call upstream is renewables and gas-fired power plants. And 40% from the downstream, which are customers, B2B, B2C, and the trading. So just to give you an idea of the source of cash. On the renewable part, we continue to invest, but in terms of free cash, the fact that we... recycle the capex, you know we recycle a lot. This year we have sold for 2 billion of renewables, which allow us to finance, in fact, almost, not all, but 70 or 80% of the organic capex. So we are now at 8 gigawatts is stabilized. We are no more growing. The construction every year, you know, the flow is 8 gigawatts. We are in a sort of permanent mode where, in fact, we more or less finance 80% of the renewable capex by the recycling of the capex. And that helps a lot because that means that's more than $500 million, and we generate more than that with our renewable portfolio. So that's, I think, the discipline. I know that the question is, can you really recycle? This year we have managed to do it in quite a strong way. And now I think we are beginning to establish some platforms, for example, in the U.S. with some large partners. It was Apollo, it's KKR, maybe, on which we begin to see if we could follow up, you know, and follow on, I would say. And that the farm dance of 2026 could be done with one of these platforms. So we begin to industrialize this part of the model. But again, it's because we have a view, a long-term view. We stabilize at eight. Maybe my peers have, I don't know, they have other ideas to develop. I don't know. This is the way we look at it. But I take your point on free cash generation more globally. We didn't look at it that way, but this is what happens on the renewable. So at the end, by the way, this year, we didn't spend $4 billion. We spent only $3.5 billion. Part of it, but on the renewable part, the projects have been a little slower, but we were able to manage it and to manage the growth with less. I think we are also more selective, more focused. I know we begin in 26, one of the plans on the renewable part is to get rid out of, we inherited many geographies with small projects. And that, honestly, when you have plenty of small projects in many countries, it's inefficient. You have difficulty to follow. You have too many teams per megawatt. So we now prefer to concentrate on less countries, but having teams which are more efficient in, I would say, megawatt per people, per staff. So that's also the other idea.
Michele? Michele?
Thank you very much. I wanted to ask two questions. We've seen an opening up of several countries or at least better fiscal terms that eTotal has operated in the past from Venezuela to Syria, Kuwait, et cetera. We've already seen the success you've had in Iraq and Libya leading to new projects. How do you think of these opportunities? And then I wanted to ask you on Tilenga. It starts up at the end of this year. It's a major part of the growth next year. When do you expect it to reach plateau on both phases?
The plateau should be raised to be raised by mid-27, to be clear. First swain being started this year, second swain the first half, so plateau by mid-27. There is a delay, to be honest. It's not a strong performance instead of construction. Now, I'm sure, honestly, it's true that it's quite complex to, the main difficulty we faced was to mobilize people on the ground. There was not so many, I would say, people with the right competencies locally. And we have been obliged. And one of the main contractors has disco part of his business or one of his subcontractors to find people, to bring people. So we have much more Chinese on the ground that we were planning to have it. And all that makes, we lost some, I think, we lost for me a year there in all the mobilization on the ground. No, it's down. So progress is back on track. Nicolas is following that every week himself. So we are back, but there is a delay. So fortunate. We have other source of growth, so it will feed next year. On the first question, first, we like what we've done in Iraq. We can do more in Iraq. We have opened the door. Some of us are following. But from the Iraqi authorities, they remember that we have opened the door. So we are welcome, and we will work with them. New government will be put in place. I think we have a strong partnership with Qatar as well, with QE. And we have established, and the teams, honestly, to have been able in two years to sign all these contracts in Iraq. It's a huge performance for our teams to have been able to go through the whole system and also good relations with the Basraul company. So all that is an ecosystem. So let's continue to Iraq. Libya... It's more, it's not Russian mountains, but I don't know, Libyan mountains. We managed, together with Kanako, to have these new fiscal terms. So now we can, we have better terms, including which will be applied to the existing production. But we have an incentive to invest, so we want to invest in the North Gallo projects. The other main challenge will be to mobilize contractors because Libya is not yet, I would say, a fully stable country. I see a lot of enthusiasm, but it's still... And so we need to convince good contractors, strong contractors to come and in order to build in Libya. But again, in both cases, it's a very cheap oil. So renewing reserves, there is a big potential there. It's good. Waha production today is around 400,000 or 350,000 oil per day. We can easily increase that to 500,000, 600,000 oil per day. There is a huge potential, which is identified. It's a matter to execute projects in this area. Beyond it, you mentioned some interesting countries, very different. Kuwait, I was in Kuwait, so I have an interest for Kuwait. I have one dream, which is to put total energy in each of the countries of the Middle East. So I'm continuing. They have announced that they'll be open to international partners to develop offshore. True or not, we'll see. We'll look at it. They need some competence. Others will look at it. Obviously, we are not the only one. It might be. What are the fiscal terms? I don't know. I need to see if at the end... Because all that, it's a matter of risk and reward. Syria... The stakes are maybe not so high, in fact. And so there are teams or explorers are looking with others together to see what we think about the quality of the rocks. And I don't want to judge about it. We ask them to review. But we know onshore we were producing, but the stakes were quite small, I would say, at our size. So it's a question at the end also for us. We don't have infinite resources, human resources and competencies. So we cannot go everywhere. And now we have this new Namibia. Clearly, I see much more potential of profits in Namibia today than in Qatar. It's a question as well of potential for the future. And Venezuela, I already answered, is not at the top of the pile of my files. Because we are consistent. We have said in the past that we concentrate our investments on oil which is lower than $20 per barrel, low-cost oil. Oil in Venezuela does not fit with that, because it's not only a frame. It's also upgrading and the whole system. We are there. So I think it's not a priority. And I think all that needs to be stabilized before to rethink to all that. That's what I think. Chris?
Thank you. Two questions, thank you for the presentation. Patrick, I've noticed the CFFO payout link has disappeared and I wonder with free cash flow inflection coming from integrated power whether you're considering how that changes your linkage in terms of payout policies as we move into 2027 and finally integrated power actually helps finance some of the buybacks and dividends. That's question number one. And number two is again on M&A. I guess EPH was a great example of a non-competitive deal, but then Namibia was very competitive, and it seems you should be in a good position to tell us what the M&A environment is like today for, let's call them undeveloped resources. Where are you seeing the market there? Thank you.
The mention of the more than 40% payout was in the last slide, if I remember well. So it did not disappear. It's 40. Again, I think, to be clear, this year, Jean-Pierre said 40, 55% payout. It's too high. This is a view of the board. 55, we reach a point where we are high. And in fact, the payout has been high, and we finance it by the debt. Fundamentally, when you look to the financial of 2025, buyback has been financed by the debt, which is possible. For me, the view I have on it is that in 22, we benefited from incredible high cash, which have By the way, lower the net debt, the gearing down to 7%, 8%. So having a year where somewhere we give back part of this extra cash that we get in 22, 23 for this buyback in 25 is a nice way. We've done it for a special dividend. We do it for buyback. We come back to, I would say, what is a normal gearing around 15%. We cannot repeat that. I cannot repeat it. So the 40% guidance was probably good when we gave it to you. We'll see. Integrated power is good news because of the VPH deal. We will accelerate the year and might be 26 where we'll be net cash positive. So this will change. In our plans, it was not fully clear that we'll reach it. We accelerate. We are more and more confident. Even if I understand the doubt of Iran, what did you find? Is there something, a magic which could disappear suddenly? That's why I'm cautious. I'm still continue to monitor that step after step to observe the results, the cash flow, and then we'll be more confident. So I cannot just change the guidance just because we have a perspective. I want this to be delivered, and then we'll be able to build on it with you and to give you more guidance, including this integrated business. And develop resource, you know, it's fundamental to have access to and develop resource. I was looking the way we have managed to renew our reserves for the last three, four years. When we look to what we've done, part is coming for more exploration, Grand Mogo, Namibia, Camino. But, of course, there was two other big sources. One, the LNG part. The Qatar deals, obviously, are giving quite a large resource. And also from the Emirati part, or UAE concessions that we bought in 2015. In fact, we were planning to produce 4 million barrels per day. Today, we are going to 5 million barrels per day, which is a huge increase. We benefit from that, even if we have only 10% to 20%. Beyond it, you have quite a large resource. And so I think this is a lesson, by the way. When you acquire a license in this type of country, you should not just look at what you obtain immediately, but the potential to grow beyond. And so, yes, we continue to work on this idea, like we've done in Iraq, like Libya, and that's part of the business. And you could have access to that to very, I would say, cheap costs. On GALP, We managed to get it. I don't know if it was competitive. It was a long competition, which at a certain point, I didn't know where we were going. At the end, we had one edge. To be honest, we were the only one to be able to offer a swap somewhere, this position in Namibia on Venus. And this was very attractive to them. So it's thanks to exploration that somewhere we have embarked in the deal with GALP. So there are implications. I think that's what. Today, the market is still high. Still expensive. So you need to be smart if you don't want to pay in cash. Still expensive. People still expect $70 per barrel. The deals in M&A are quite expensive. So this is not what we have done. You need to... But I gave one constraint to Arnaud when he came for me. Okay, it's nice, but no cash. So find a good idea. He find the idea of the swap, so to him. No cash. Let's continue. Lydia.
Thanks. It's Lydia from Barclays. And two questions on both AI related. On the idea of selling to data centers How much of the, when you think about 60 terawatt hours going to 100 terawatt hours, how much of that uplift do you think you can sell to data centers? And that 10% premium, is it actually enough? Because ultimately the value that data centers get of having power straight away, it should possibly be, you should be able to get higher premiums. I'm just challenging you on that bit. And then the second one of Total Energy's own AI technology. Patrick, you talked about getting agents next week, but that idea of what's the prize here? Is it increased production, 1-2% a year? Is it recovery rates? I'm not going to hold you to any of this, but just that ambition around it.
Okay. I learned that you have an agent, so you need to teach me now. No, clearly, but I will let the floor to Namita and Stéphane to answer the question. On the second one, we are looking to availability of the plants. I mean, recovery rates... Maybe. I mean, on the subsurface, we are not too clear. There is a work stream, but it's not too clear. It's more really on the way we run all these machines to be more efficient, to gain 1%, 2% of additional availability because we have a better maintenance. But really, on the subsurface, I'm skeptical on this one. But again, we are working. So Jean, you take the first question. Namita, you can compliment Nicolas the first one, second one.
Yeah. So on the first question, what is the potential? It's clear that in the US, we see that on the notably in Texas, where we have most of our production, that's one third of the growth of the market. So then, I mean, that's an indication of what we could imagine for us in the U.S. It has yet to materialize in Europe, but we see the first deal, the ongoing discussion of the first deal. So I believe that's going to come. And in Europe, it's clear that it could be even more because we don't see the same industrial demand coming. So it could be even larger than that. Then we have to be cautious to the premium because, as I tried to explain, there are three sources of revenue. The first one is the additional premium you can sell through your PPA. That's one. And honestly, I don't expect to get that much higher than what it is today. Second, the fact that you are able to provide land, the fact that you are able to give them access to a connection grid can be sold. And that's not included in the PPA, and that can be a serious value. Yet too materialized, but that can be a serious value. And the last point that we need to highlight, especially in a market like Texas, for example, we all know that the price are linked to the node, so where you are. and there could be some difference between the price at the node, the price at the node, and the price globally. If you are able to bring additional demand, you are going to improve the supply-demand balance of where you are. And that's at the strong implication on not the contract you are selling, but if you have a bulk of assets, then you are going to improve not only what you sell, but you will improve what you sell on the rest of your asset. And that indirect part is as well very important. One of the reasons why we see so many Bitcoin miners and where we try to attract them is as well to improve globally the level of the market. So if you start to accumulate the free ideas, then that's a significant improvement of your profitability.
Namita, you want to comment?
Yes. So I agree with what Patrick said. Our main goal is, of course, to increase production. And I can give you some concrete examples. The first is just digital in general. If we look at something like just process control, which was something that we did a lot in our refineries but now can be done on our exploration and production assets with some of the tests we've done. Even an increase of between 1% to 2% of production on our assets is, of course, just enormous. But then if you add to that things like less breakdowns, again, we focus traditionally on very large pieces of equipment, like our turbines. But what we realize is that we have a lot of breakdowns with very small pieces of equipment. And the idea of getting connections to over 70% of our equipment is to have less breakdown. So that combination is something that obviously increases production. On the subsurface side, AI is probably in the very early stages of whether we can do more recovery. But where it can really help is accelerate. That means acceleration of FIDs, if you can accelerate. and analyze quicker, and if you can drill faster and with more precision, which means quicker tiebacks as well, and not just on large projects, but on smaller ones. So I think those are the two sort of main focuses where I think in exploration production, we can use AI effectively.
Okay, Alejandro.
Hello, Alejandro Vigil from Santander. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is I'm very interested about your views about CO2 regulation in Europe. Now you're going to be one of the largest generators in Europe after the EPA's acquisition. I'm interested in your thoughts about the system. It needs some changes, et cetera. And the second question is we are also seeing a consolidation process in oil services and drilling. And it looks like there is a new wave
of investments in the abstinent business your thoughts about potential inflation a cause in in the in the investment in the absolute thank you i don't like consolidation as a point it depends on the markets it depends on the markets but if you have a market which is already limited to three player or four and you go to two this becomes a problem no and i'm clear on it So there are some considerations we don't support because at the end we see the impact. By the way, today I think, and we observe it in the tenders, the offers we just received for Namibia, we see a stabilization of the market. I think it's linked to the oil price. We are no more at 80, down to 70. It could go lower. So I think it has an impact, clearly, on the service industry. And to be honest, even some companies, some service companies have tried to combine their offers by linking wealth and subsidy. We didn't see, honestly, in the offers we received any advantage of it. So they tried to promote to us an integration. Maybe it's good for them, but as a customer, we didn't see a lot of value of this type of approach of integration, I would say, on subsea and wells or things like that. We worked a lot. And even if we are ready to look particularly on drilling, we are developing today an approach where we give more integrated contracts rather than or self-taking the different bits and pieces to give it to one company. We've done that in Iraq, for obvious reasons, to be more efficient. We are looking to do that as well for the . There we see an added value for us. To select one which will integrate is good for them, but it's good for us. So on this one, the demonstration has to be done that we, as customers, are really benefiting from this type of consolidation or integration. So I like competition, fundamentally. It's better to keep competition. By the way, it's normal in a liberal world. CO2 regulation in Europe. It's an interesting question for Stéphane, because Stéphane is a guy which they permanently told me you must promote the CO2 price because of renewables. Now he has some gas-fired power plants, so let's see what he will arbitrate between the two parts of it. So the question is for you, Stéphane.
No, I think that there are several questions. One, we have the ETS1 system where there is a question mark on how fast are we going to reduce the level of Qatar and what's going to be the consequence on the CO2 price. So as mentioned, Patrick, We are a buyer of CO2 for refining industry and at the same time power price are linked to CO2 price. I've got CCGT which are more value when CO2 price is higher. I've got renewable which has more value when CO2 price is higher. So it's clear that integrated power part will benefit from an increase of CO2. There are question marks today on where that market is going, given the balance between the speed of the decrease and potentially the increase in demand. We are quite happy with the way the market is functioning today and with this balance. And at the end of the day, if we want the transition to take place, it will have to take place with a higher price of CO2. At the same time, we need to be cautious on what's going to happen for the industry because we need as well to maintain the demand of the industry. That's one aspect. Then you have the ETS2 system and so on, but that has marginal consequence, honestly, on what we do. So we are more focusing on the ETS1, on which, as I said, we are quite satisfied with the current situation.
Okay.
So fundamentally, we like the price of CO2, just to be clear. Otherwise, there will be zero transitions. So up to Europe to decide what they want. And then if you want to make an exception for the high emitters or your heavy industry, you have ways to do it if you want to support these industries without necessarily doing it for the price of CO2. So two different topics. The debate makes both, but you can have other ways to support your industry than just lowering the CO2 or stopping the decrease of quota, et cetera, et cetera. I think this is a real fundamental question for the policymakers. And today, the debate is difficult. Henri?
Thank you for the presentation. Two questions. The first one was on FIDs for 26-27. You've mentioned Venus for mid-26. Which other projects do you see as more likely to go ahead over the next couple of years? Which ones are more challenging across oil and LNG? And then secondly, on LNG, during the presentation, you mentioned the risk of new project delays in 26. What do you see the risk for the projects in which you're involved in Qatar?
Again, I was on the one for us on the NFE in Qatar. We were in Doha. The wool industry was in Doha last week. And we discussed, again, I discussed not only with with Technip Energies, which is a main contractor. They say second quarter. We put third quarter. We are a little cautious. So third quarter is probably more relative. So I see that progressing well on the ground. We'll see if the finalization. But again, I don't see that as a risk on this one. On ECA. I think we have been long to wait, but now it's again. So the technique is transferring the installation by May, I think. And we said this one, we could face some quality issues. We have a concern about the quality of the work which has been done. So it needs to be checked. But again, third quarter for both. The sanctions in 26. So we have Venus. We have a project in Nigeria called IMA, which is a gas project to continue to feed this train seven, the famous train seven. So we have progressed a lot. Now we have large attenders. We had a meeting last week. So we said go. So the idea is to sanction the projects in 26, and it's important. It's an easy project, but in Nigeria, even if easy, it's always a little slow. We face some hurdles, local hurdles, but it seems to be this one. Then we have the question of Papua LNG. So... Either we sanction or we have an issue. So the plan is to sanction in 26. We'll see. There is different work stream together, to put together, because it's a capex, it's fiscal, capex, financing, and marketing. So you have different work stream. We should converge all of them. By middle of the year, I would say. It's not done, but if we don't manage to do it, now that we have, I think, optimized the CapEx, we don't see what we could do better than what we have. We are around $14, $15 billion, not at $18, but not at $12. that's why he speaks fiscal so we have a clear discussion a clear engagement with the government and and with the partners we see where we land and we'll have to take the decision in 26. but i would say what else do you have nicola yeah but that's a license to be obtained so it's not yet a decision Oh, it's business development. No, no, you are going too quick. No, no, no, no. No, no, no. No way. That's the optimism of the upstream. No, no, no. There is no way to get the FID on Marsaf train 2 in 26, 27. No way. No, no, you have to do it well to appraise. Okay, so I know our process. It's good to have some good momentum from the president of upstream, but I'm... After that, they will just ask us to report on it. So no, no. It's still business development, this one. We are working with Romani to see if beyond the first train, we could build another one, benefit from it. We have identified some gas. We need to be sure that we have enough gas resource. We will not build a train without to be sure to have the gas. That's, for me, just fundamental when we speak about LNG. OK. What else?
Kim, go ahead.
Thank you. It's Kim Fastieff, HSBC. Two quick questions on the upstream, please. The first one is on Mozambique LNG. You've now restarted construction. Could you talk about the revised timeline for the project in terms of remobilization and first LNG? And secondly, maybe just a word on the NeoNext Plus transaction in the UK North Sea. I guess what's the impact there on production, CapEx, maybe future growth? And do you see a similar structure elsewhere in the world potentially being applied?
The second question, sorry.
NEONext. NEONext plus.
NEONext plus, OK. First one, we have been clear. We have restarted. Today, I visited. I was with the president of Mozambique in Afungi. So we have almost 5,000 people on the ground already, 4,000 local, 1,000 local. We need to reach 15,000 to be at full speed, so the ramp-up will take off. In fact, again, I would say all the engineering is done at 90% or 95%. Procurement of all the long-lead items has been done. So I know it's a matter of construction on the ground. So the plan is to deliver the project by 29. Maybe end 28, but let's say 29 to be sure. This is a plan in which we work today. And again, the remobilization, no contractors are aligned. So let's do it. And I think it's really a matter of construction. Most of the procurement, everything is ready because, in fact, we spent some. We were not quiet during the years. We tried to advance as much as we could the project. On the North Sea transaction, so Yes, there is. Again, we have a positive impact on the production. 47.5% of the global production is more than what we have all share, around 10,000 boil per day, I think. We have a positive impact on the capex, because we have some synergies there. So we lower the capex by $100 million, something like that. And then we'll see what we will do together. I think clearly there will be synergies on OPEX as clear. It's clear. Be clear. They are doing it today between high tech and Repsol. So we'll bring our teams. And again, we want to optimize. You know, it's mature. It's better to do it free together than alone. There is another positive impact on the deal on the abandonment cost on the CapEx side. Because the full idea is to have a sort of abandonment factory, I would say, in an efficient way. Rather than each company, and by the way, from this perspective, I'm not sure our engineers are the cheapest ones on the planet to abandon the world. They are very cautious. I think that there are a lot of works to be done. And to plan it, including the few authorities, in a smarter way than if you are alone, obliged to do it. So there is also, again, from this perspective, do we want to develop the same model elsewhere? No. I don't see where. I mean, I know we have that opportunity. Honestly, all that was led as well, as you know, because of the fiscal hike in the UK. We were looking to that. And the maturity of the assets. Honestly, the assets, because mature. And when we are looking at these assets from a pure total energies point of view, when I look to the business plan of Nicola Stimms, I said, but we have nothing more in three, four years. So we have a huge organization, not much to manage. Or do we make this slowdown and then abandonment costs? So we realized that it was time to look to, I would say, merging within the larger groups, more efficient on the costs, again, than staying alone. Which we don't have, honestly, that in another. I mean, I don't see that situation at all, in particular, of the neighboring country, if your question was about Norway. Norway, not at all. It's not mature at all. It continues to grow and to deliver cash, and it's fine. I'm happy with the Norwegian assets. So this is to answer specific questions. As you know as well, I didn't pronounce the word fiscal synergies, but there are some. UK government knew. That's a consequence.
Henri? Hi, Henry Tarr from Barenberg. Thanks for taking my questions. Two, please. One is just on the EPH volumes when they come into your portfolio. Are they already pre-sold, if you like, or how are you looking to market them when they come through? And then the second question is just on the net capex guidance, 15 billion for the year. Is that a sort of an organic number? Are there acquisitions and divestments beyond what you've already sort of mentioned in terms of farm downs that we should think about in that number? Thank you.
You speak, your second question is for integrated power or globally? Globally. Globally, I mentioned that the net between acquisition and divestments is minus one. One billion more of divestments than acquisition. So the organic is at 16, and the net is at 15, to be clear, which is feasible. I mean, we know what we have to deliver. What will be the exact amount, I don't know. But we calibrate at the end. We have always a large menu of diverse months. In diverse months, if you want to reach one, you need to plan two, 1.5. Otherwise, you can have some... closing is always sometimes difficult. So it's better to have a large pipeline of divestments ID in order to reach it. So then we monitor the acquisitions related to what we anticipate on the divestment. The divestment program is today well engaged on a frame. I see at least 1, 1.5 billion, which are very clear on which it's a matter of closing the deals, including in Nigeria. And honestly, on the farm down on your side, with what we've done and capacity to follow on, we have also quite a good idea on the way to progress it. EPH volume pre-sold? The answer is no, but you can explain.
No, they are not pre-sold. And actually, what's going to happen is that after closing, we will offtake 50% of the production. Usually, those volumes are sold on the wholesale market, so you don't have to find a customer to do that. And EPH was not tolling to a third party its ECGD. Then there is a normal program of edging forward of those assets. It will move with EPH volume, but nothing different from what a normal player would do. And as I said, as far as the closing, we will be the one of taking those volumes and handling notably the wedge program of those volumes.
OK.
Lucas?
Thanks very much. Lucas Hamlet, BNP. Firstly, Patrick, I mean every time, or all of you every time, you don't leave us with that much scope for questions, to be honest. And congratulations on a much better year than many of us anticipated. Lydia said all what we want, so I will continue. She's right. I was pleased when I read the title. She's right. On a serious note, and probably two end-of-day questions, one thing that hasn't been mentioned at all is chemicals, and you're a big player, and I guess the question I've got in part is really thinking about what the scope or upside may be of the chemical cycle were to normalise at a point, together with your thoughts on when that normalises. If we're seeing any signs that we may be moving to a point where players are saying, OK, it's just enough pain, We've got to start shutting in because this can't go on at this level forever. And the second, before you answer that, thanks very much, maybe towards Stefan, it's just on LNG. In terms of contracting and building the portfolio now, you've pretty much achieved the, you know, eight to 10 million of length that you wanted in Brent. Are we broadly done in you fixing contracts? I know that's a silly observation because it's an ongoing process, but just are you comfortable with where you're at? Thank you.
Stéphane, we'll answer you. Just for all of you, we plan to propose you to make a visit of Rio Grande during the Sierra Week, like we've done last year, for half a day, and to dedicate this half day to LNG. Because I know you have many questions. So if some of you will be there, we will embark you if you accept. with us from Houston, ensuring the transportation. But the idea is to dedicate, I would say like we've done last year on renewables and power, to dedicate this half day to LNG. So Stéphane will have plenty of time to explain to you everything about our portfolio. But I think it's time. We have many questions to try to have a specific point. But Stéphane will answer you. It's not just to. On the first one, chemicals. You know, I'm in chemicals. On our side, when we speak about chemicals, we are mainly, we are only, we are big volumes, but we are not a real chemical company. We are just a polymer plus one, cracker plus one. We make the big polyethylene and polypropylene. So we don't have the whole story behind it. It's clear that today it's facing large overcapacities. coming from China. Everybody knows it. Which puts, in particular, our platform in Korea, which was one of the best five years ago, today is facing huge difficulties because the natural market of Korean platforms were exported to China. And of course, this is closed-door today, which is a topic, by the way, as well for all these US crackers, which were built with the idea not for the domestic market, We will export to China. I don't know why everybody's made the same mistake. Nobody has seen or understood that the Chinese, and it's a real problem for me, because suddenly, last year, we discovered that the Chinese have built so many capacities that they, to be almost self-suppliers, in fact, to be for their own autonomy. And themselves, by the way, because I think you have an issue of the domestic demand in China. All these civil real estate, all that is going down. So they face themselves overcapacity for their own market. So you have a situation which is not good. Having said that, I see in our portfolio two types of petrochemicals, to be clear. I'm being constant. I have the one in Europe based on NAFTA. This one, you can take it wherever you can want. You can be the best. It will never be competitive against petrochemicals, polyethylase, done on ethane, either in the US or in the Middle East. The gap of competitiveness, it's impossible to close. So this one, it's a matter of managing the pain, I would say. So either you have some crackers, but you know we have decided this year to shut down a cracker in Antwerp. Others have decided to shut down a cracker in Normandy, not ours, but next to us, which is good news for us. It's really a matter of, so today we are left in terms of crackers with Antwerp and with Normandy. We have a small one in Fezzan, but it's very small, and which has a dedicated, I would say, market. But we left La Vera, Solingeto, Ineos. We shut down the cracker. So I'm quite happy to exit step by step, to be honest. And it's really a problem. The company is big. When you have integration of the cracker to the refinery, you can see some ways to manage it. But in terms of polymers, you lose money on the polymers. Then I'm looking to the global pictures, because if I'm running my crackers, I need to have an outlet for the crackers. And nobody will take my ethylene today in Europe. So I need to transform my ethylene to bring it to customers in order to capture the margin of the cracker. If you don't see it as an integration, then you are If you just have a polymer business, why do you continue? We have a business unit of polymer, and Vincent tried to convince me to merge it with a cracker. I said, no, no, no, I want to know the business. Otherwise, we will not know exactly. We'll make the losses. But I want to know what we can fix and what are the pain. But that's the situation. Then we have the other petrochemicals based on ethane. either in the US or in Saudi Arabia or Qatar. This one, honestly, is competitive because we have an advantage on the feedstock. So this advantage on the feedstock absorbs, I would say, even if you lose again on your polymer, the absorption is even easier to be done. So when I see on this... integration between the crackers on ethane and the polymers, I would say it's OK. We are OK. Yeah, it makes money. It makes money. It makes money. Profit and cash. Profit and cash. Otherwise, I would not tell you that, Lucas. I would tell you it's a disaster. We need to fix it. No, I'm not in a panic mode, to be clear. I'm sure that we will have to take. The question for us is the European part. Is there a way or not? And that's true. That's why... Of course, Vincent is not very happy when Stefan says, I want a high price of CO2. For him, it's just, what can we preserve from this business? So on my side, what I think is that no way to invest in any capacity on NAFTA crackers and all that is a question of, how do we go down? surely, but it's not easy because I think other players have the same view as us. Even if some players like Ineos bought or Lavera cracker because they had an overview of the market, fine. I'm fine. If we find some time to time good opportunities, I'm ready to do it. We have a third polymer, which is polystyrene, on which we'd like to, in particular in the US, we try to put it for divestment, this one. So that's the way I'm looking at it. It's ethane, so it's Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the US. But even the US, I think we have one. I'm not sure we are ready to make another one. We'll be cautious on it. You have to absorb these other capacities. It could take time. But again, as a chemical company, I don't see all what is happening behind in the value chain.
Yes, as you mentioned, Lucas, we sold around more than $8 million between 2023, beginning 2025 on the brand basis in Asia. So we are happy with what we have done and I consider that the portfolio is well balanced until 2030. after that it's an ever-going job because you've got contracts that expire you have additional production that will come from lng growth so we have to work on on the on the portfolio post 2030 we've got time to do so and i'm not too concerned by by by that but you should expect additional cell of energy on the brain formula that on that time horizon.
Maybe we can take a question online.
I will reveal a secret to you. The net result of chemicals in 25, the net result was $500 million. Positive. Globally. It's only a small share of the net result of refining and chemicals, but it's positive globally. It's not too bad compared to what I listen when I'm reading the newspapers. It's not too bad.
OK, Doug, you can go ahead with your question if you are there. Sorry.
We lost Doug. We lost Doug. He prefer to be with a competitor in New York. That's the problem, you know?
So maybe we can take another one online. You can go Jason Gavelman. Go ahead. Ah, we have a problem maybe with the OK, question in the room then. So Anish, go ahead.
Hi, it's Anish Kapadia from Palissy Advisors. I had a question on the outlook for global gas. Clearly, some of the strategic moves you've made over the last few years are on the back of your view that there's going to be somewhat of a narrowing of global gas prices and Henry Hubb. So I just wanted to kind of get your viewpoint. If gas prices do fall further from here, below your 10 TTF assumption, what are some of the measures you've put in place? And how can the integrated power business, such as the acquisition you made in Europe, help to mitigate some of the fall in TTF pricing?
As I explained, we have tried to balance the portfolio so that we are selling our gas more on the Brent formula than spot. So to that extent, we are not that exposed to decreasing on the TTF or GKM gas price. That's one. Second, it's clear that with gas price you will have to affect one is that you are going to find back Asian demand that would limit that trend. And second, you are going to improve the competitiveness of gas in Europe for power production. So, we should have a kind of parachute effect thanks to our CCGT fleet and should be able to benefit from that move thanks to the full integration in Europe along the value chain between gas and power. That's the two way to actually we have mitigated that possible decrease of the gas price.
Okay, other questions in the room? Jean-Luc.
at CIC Market Solutions. I had a question on the new exploration you just took in Namibia. It's a different basin, probably a higher risk and less explored. How do you compare the potential or your geologists compare the potential of basin with orange basin?
I mean, again, it's out of the Orange Basin. It's an exploration. It has been positive. We find hydrocarbons in the Orange Basin, so the idea is we should not stop. The probability of success is lower, obviously. We had the opportunity to enter that license. The explorers love it. But we were not only the ones from Total Energy, the one of Petrobras as well, because, in fact, we joined forces. In fact, we are competing, so we decided it was better That's why I like competition up to a point. Sometimes it's good to partner together in order to have access to the license. I think both teams of explorers, geologists, have seen the same potential, I would say, interest. So it's good to make seismic and then potentially to do it. We'll see. But again, I think there is a certain logic. And I think the fact that we, again, that we are establishing a strong prison in Namibia encourage our teams to look to other license, which might be available.
OK. Other questions? Yes. Mauritio.
Maurizio Carulli from Quilter Civiot Investment Management. Fesolo, congratulations for the good results. I have a question about the electricity business, including renewables, of course. You have been able to grow it very well and with better profitability of most of the traditional utilities companies. The question that I have here, as long as you can continue to have good opportunities for expansion, good profitability, good return on capital, and good free cash flow, do you have a strategic cap for the expansion of your electricity business long-term?
No, it's a question which will be a debate at the board. Exactly the question. Next strategic seminar. Because now we are, in fact, after the five years, we have more conviction about the model. So in 2020, we said, let's engage for 10 years. Otherwise, we will never manage. If we don't keep an horizon, I said to the board, either you give us 10 years to do it, or it's better not to engage. Because this type of business will make, obviously, diversification. We can make some mistakes. But we need to see if we establish business. Now we are more confident. And the last strategic seminar, when we were integrating Mover, it was more about how to increase the profitability. Let's demonstrate the question of Iran. Why do you do that, et cetera? Now we have a better idea. So then I said, well, it's time to discuss between us where do we go beyond 2030 of much would we want to grow this business or not so this is i would say and i know that i have a good question from you of course it's linked as well to the capacity we'll have to see the value of this business within the global company i would say and as it was said by one or two of you very well by iran i think there is a turning point when it's becoming free cash positive because then your perspective will be different As long as it's a sort of cash sink, you know, why do they do that? If you begin to deliver cash and we think that even if it's positive by 2026, we could go quickly to 1, 2, 3 billion per year, then the appetite might see. I see also, to be honest, more and more a strong integration because of gas and the power. And I think to answer to any part of the question is also the integration gas to power. is a way to, if you have a lower gas price, you could recover part of the value along the chain on the electricity part. So I see some value. And I think, by the way, my view is that the market clearly has better reacted to the EPH transaction because it was gas to power and not just renewable. I've opened my eyes, I'm clear, which, by the way, is helping us to discuss that the board, these are elements of very important, it's important, you know. So the board is more and more looking to that in a way, and I will be probably more able to answer your question in one year than today. But as we are clear that we want to reach a sort of size of 20%, what do we do beyond that? At which pace? That's a debate. The opportunities might continue to come, in fact, you know, in this business. And I think there will be a time, you know, the debates we have in European countries about the budget. I'm advocating in France today to stop, to have all these CFDs which are giving. It's incredible what happens today in 2025. The states are taking the market risk. You secure revenues for developers. So it's a very strange system. Why the states should take the market risk of value of power and not the developers and the investors? In the US, we are taking the market risk. We have some fiscal incentives. But fundamentally, it's very different as a philosophy and as a regime. So these technologies are mature enough today, at least for onshore solar and field, to go to something else. And then if this type of evolution happens, you will see the competition will not be the same. Because then you will see larger players will find back an advantage compared to plenty of smaller players, which today, in fact, are in infrastructure business with no risk, which, honestly, I don't think the European governments will be able for long to continue to finance a zero-risk business, which is, of course... The return is not very high because it cannot be. So again, this is a debate where I'm not able, but this will come now. It's time to have it. And the board, they had their independent session. It was the main topic. So now we work on them.
Okay, so we have a technical problem, but I will take the question from Doug. Good. I want Doug to be satisfied.
Yeah, so he sent me the question. He sent me an email, but our technology does not work. No AI in total. Not yet.
The first one is on Namibia. You are carrying GALP, but do you receive GALP's share of cost oil? This is the first one. Of course. Otherwise I don't do it. The second one is, what is the current dividend breakeven post the EPH deal and after the EPH deal is closed?
Dividend break even, but it's quite easy. 3 billion represent $10, so it's $50 per barrel. It's $50. $50 per barrel, the dividend break even. Post EPH, EPH will not change dramatically everything, so it will be 1 billion, so it's 1 billion is $3 to $3, so it's $48 or something like that. $48, $47 per barrel. Costal share, yeah, of course, we take 50% of... In fact, we more or less, you know, we had a scheme in Suriname, which this one, to be honest, is a little better for us. But no, it's yes, we take the question.
OK, do we have questions in the room? No more questions in the room.
So if you are satisfied, thank you. Thank you for your attendance. Thank you for your comments. And thank you to all the teams of TotalEnergies who have delivered these results, including, of course, the different executives present in the room. And so the next meeting with you, potentially, might be in Houston for the ones who want to participate to this field trip on Rio Grande and again with a focus on energy and the portfolio and how we manage all these these times which are in front of us. Thank you for your attendance.
