Textron Inc.

And ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by for Textron third quarter 2021 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, please press 1 then 0 on your telephone keypad. You may withdraw your question at any time by repeating the 1 then 0 command. Once again, if you have a question, please press 1 and then 0. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. If you should require assistance during the call, please press star then zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Eric Salander, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Please go ahead. Thanks, Brad, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release. On the call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO, and and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings call presentation can be found in the investor relations section of our website. Revenues in the quarter were $3 billion, up from $2.7 billion in last year's third quarter. During this year's third quarter, we reported income from continuing operations of $0.82 per share. Adjusted income from continuing operations, a non-GAAP measure, was $0.85 per share for the third quarter of 2021, compared to $0.53 per share in the third quarter of 2020. Segment profit in the quarter was $279 million, up $90 million from the third quarter of 2020. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $271 million in the quarter and $851 million year-to-date. With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

Thanks, Eric, and good morning, everyone. We continue to execute well across the company in the quarter. At aviation, we continue to see a solid recovery in the general aviation market, with strong commercial demand, increased deliveries in Citation jets and commercial turboprops, and higher aftermarket volume. We delivered 49 jets, up from 25 last year, and 35 commercial turboprops, up from 21 in last year's third quarter. Order activity in the quarter remained very strong, resulting in backlog growth of $721 million, bringing us to $3.5 billion at the quarter end. Also in the third quarter, the Beechcraft King Air 360 and 260 achieved EASA certification and began to deliver customers throughout the region. Continuing with our product strategy of upgrading existing models, at MBAA we recently announced the Citation M2 Gen 2 and the XLS Gen 2 product upgrades. Also on the new product front, the Sussex Sky Courier is continuing to progress through certification with over 1,600 hours of flight test activity, and the Beechcraft Denali successfully completed its initial ground engine runs powered by GE's new catalyst engine. At Bell, revenues were down 3% in the quarter, largely on lower military revenues. On the commercial side of Bell, we delivered 33 helicopters, down 41 in last year's third quarter. Moving to future vertical lift, in September, Bell submitted its proposal for the FARA program. A down-selected award is expected in the second quarter of 2022. On FARA, Bell is about 60% of the way through its build of the 360 Invictus prototype and remains on schedule. Also in the quarter, Bell inducted the first U.S. Air Force CV-22 for its nacelle improvement modifications. Moving to systems, we saw another strong quarter of execution with operating margins at 15.1%, up 190 basis points from last year's third quarter. ATAC continued to expand its fleet of certified F-1 aircraft with two additional aircraft entering service in the quarter, bringing the total fleet to 19 aircraft at the end of the quarter. The fleet continued to support higher customer demand for adversary air services, driving higher revenues in the quarter. At Air Systems, the team booked $25 million in new orders in the quarter, including both fee-for-service activities as well as new hardware. Moving to industrial, overall revenues were lower in the quarter as we continued to experience manufacturing disruptions related to supply chain challenges. At Caltechs, we again saw order disruptions related to the global auto OEM supply chain shortages, which have directly impacted production scheduling, resulting in intermittent line shutdowns and manufacturing inefficiencies. Specialized vehicles, we saw continued strong demand in our end markets with higher pricing, which offset production disruptions from part shortages. To wrap up, Textron delivered a solid quarter with increased aviation backlog, improved manufacturing margins, and continued strong cash generation while working to minimize the impact of supply chain disruptions. With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.

Thanks, Scott. Good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation. Revenues at Textron Aviation of $1.2 billion were up $386 million from a year ago, largely due to higher citation jet volume of $290 million, aftermarket volume of $62 million, and commercial turboprop volume of $48 million. Segment profit was $90 million in the third quarter, up $127 million from a year ago, largely due to the higher volume in mix of $96 million, and favorable pricing net of inflation of $22 million. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $3.5 billion. Moving to Bell, revenues were $769 million, down $24 million from last year, largely reflecting lower military revenues. Segment profit of $105 million was down $14 million, primarily due to lower military revenues. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $4.1 billion. At Textron Systems, revenues were $299 million, down $3 million from last year's third quarter due to lower volume of $39 million at air systems, which primarily reflected the impact from the U.S. Army's withdrawal from Afghanistan on its fee-for-service contracts, partially offset by higher volume primarily at ATAC and electronic systems. Segment profit of $45 million was up $5 million due to a favorable impact from performance and other. Backlog in this segment ended the quarter at $2.2 billion. Industrial revenues were $730 million, down $102 million from last year, reflecting lower volume and mix of $156 million, primarily at fuel systems and functional components, reflecting order disruptions related to the global auto OEM supply shortages, partially offset by favorable impact of $44 million from pricing, largely at specialized vehicles. Segment profit of $23 million was down $35 million from the third quarter of 2020, primarily due to the lower volume and mix described above, partially offset by higher pricing, net of inflation, and specialized vehicles. Finance segment revenues were $11 million and profit was $8 million. Moving below segment profit, corporate expenses were $23 million and interest expense was $28 million. With respect to our 2020 restructuring plan, we recorded pre-tax charges of $10 million on the special charges line. Our manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $271 million in the quarter and $851 million year-to-date as compared to $129 million for the corresponding nine-month period in 2020. Year-to-date, our cash generation reflects improved working capital management, which includes more linearity in quarterly aircraft deliveries and higher customer deposits in aviation from an increased backlog. In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 4.2 million shares, returning 299 million in cash to shareholders. We're raising our expected full-year guidance for adjusted EPS to a range of $3.20 to $3.30 per share. This includes revised tax guidance at an effective rate of 15.5% for the full year. We're also raising our outlook for manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions to a range of a billion to a billion one, up 200 million from our prior outlook, with planned pension contributions of $50 million. That concludes our prepared remarks, so we can open the line for questions.

And our first question goes to the line of Sheila Kealu with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thank you. Good morning, Scott, Frank, Eric. Backlog at aviation was at 3.5, I think, an all-time high since 2010. So maybe can you guys talk about who these customers are? Are they new? What's their rationale for buying a new jet? I'm sure $20 million jet buyers disclose all this info. So if you could share that with us a little bit.

Sure. I think the backlog is fairly broad in terms of the makeup of those customers. It still remains more U.S.-centric. I think when we look at order activity in the quarter on the jet side, it's probably roughly 70%. We're so domestic versus 30% international, so I think we'll continue to see the shift. It's a little bit more international as Europe is starting to pick up and South America is starting to pick up, but it is still more North America-centric. It's probably closer to 50-50 on the turboprops. That's usually been a market where the turboprops, King Airs, and such caravans usually end up being more international. I think it will continue to shift that way, but right now it's closer to 50-50. Obviously, there's a mix of the next year or so of deliveries of what we have coming up with NetJets, but we have very strong retail, individual customers in there. If I looked at the number of new customers, folks that are coming in buying a jet who've not owned a jet before, that number probably is somewhere around the 20% or so kind of a range, which is encouraging. We do see a lot of people, as you know, buying a jet when you've not had an aircraft before is You know, a little bit of a daunting task. One of the things we do in our business is we have a whole dedicated team that helps someone who's not owned an aircraft like that before but wants to do that. You know, we help them with the complex issues of pilots and hangars and insurance and all the things that you have to look at to do that, to successfully place that aircraft with a brand-new customer. But for sure, we're seeing a lot more interest and demand from those first-time buyers than we would historically see.

We do have a question from the line of David Strauss with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning. Sure. Scott, with the backlog at aviation now and your deliveries here today, I wanted to see if you could offer an update on how you're thinking about the production plan. I think you had said recovering half of the 2020 drop. It looks like you're tracking well ahead of that, and then you're You know, your thoughts about going above 2019 levels, just, you know, given how extended your backlog's becoming. Thanks.

Sure. Well, David, I mean, I think as we've been given color all year long, our expectation was that we would, you know, get kind of halfway there this year, get back to the 19 levels in 2022. I think that's still a good color to have on it. Obviously, we won't guide, you know, until we get into the January timeframe. But, you know, for sure, the order activity, which has been getting stronger as we've worked our way through the year and remain strong, supports that number, and we'll be looking hard at that backlog and that order rate as we finalize our production ramps and aviation. I mean, clearly right now we are in the process of ramping up production with the goal, as we stated, to get up to that 2019 level, and there's probably room for a little bit beyond that, but we'll give you the final guise when we get into January.

And we do have a question from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Thanks so much. Good morning. Scott, on the aviation side, maybe following up from Sheila's question, have you seen any differences in the order intake between the various aircraft models you have? And also on the aircraft, what's the sort of lead time looking at? Are you getting to the point where some of these planes, you have to wait more than 12 months to get them?

So the strength is really across the whole segment, Robert. I mean, every model is, I would say, doing very well right now. Order activity and interest in all of them is quite strong. And part of that is, you know, we've been, you know, putting updates and upgrades. I mean, as I said at NBAA, we put the M2, you know, Gen 2 version of that. The Gen 2 version is XLS, which, you know, has been a fabulous aircraft for us for a long time. And it's a really nice update that I think is sparking even greater new interest in that aircraft as well. So it's really across the board. And look, we're not going to get into details on the, you know, model by model on the backlog. But as we've said before, I think, you know, this business, this industry, frankly, you know, operates better if it's, you know, sort of looking at a nine to 12 month, you know, sort of backlog. And that gives you, you know, it gives a customer who has an aircraft time to sell the aircraft. It gives them time to specify the interiors and colors and paints. Obviously, it makes it much easier for us in terms of our production forecasting and smooth the production line flow. And as you know, historically, that's how this industry works. This last decade has been unusual where you're actually having to try to build to a forecast instead. So I do think one of the things that we certainly keep in mind as we look at production rates is that we want this business to be out there as sort of a 9- to 12-month kind of a backlog business. It's a much healthier way to run the business. I think it's better for the customers, again, for their planning perspective and marketing of a used aircraft if they already have an aircraft, which is the majority of our customers. So I think that that's a healthy place for the business to be, and that's kind of where I feel like we are right now.

And we do have a question for the line of Ronald Epstein with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Yeah, good morning. Good morning, guys. Good morning. So, Scott, what are you seeing on the pricing front? I mean, there's demand, right? That's clear. But are your competitors behaving themselves? I mean, how is the broader pricing environment right now?

Well, it's always a competitive market, but for sure, I think we're seeing a positive pricing environment, as you would expect, right? You have very strong demand, right? All of the dynamics that we looked at in terms of the macro level of the market are extremely favorable. You've got used aircraft available for sale at record low numbers, particularly if you look at something that's sort of less than a 10-year-old aircraft. As you know, that was an issue in this business for a long time, and that's down to kind of below 1% of the fleet, and we're seeing the used aircraft valuations going up. So the dynamic overall in pricing is much better than it's been for a very long time. Flight activity is obviously very strong, so we see the demand from everything from charter to memberships to fractionals to the whole aircraft. So I think you have a very, very strong demand environment, and you would expect to see better pricing in that environment.

And we do have a question from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Scott, on that, you mentioned you had a $22 million benefit in the quarter from pricing. The incremental margin was 33%, which is a very high number. Do you expect that kind of trend to continue?

Well, look, George, I think we're going to continue to see good pricing in the industry based on all the dynamics that I just described. I just talked about, you know, incremental, you know, leverage on volume in this business has typically been sort of in that 25%, you know, kind of range. So I think that's a reasonable expectation.

And we do have a question from the line of Noah Popinak with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning, everybody.

Scott, I guess, you know, what is, what is in aviation? What is the, you know, absolute dollar backlog level or backlog to production ratio, you know, that you feel you want to maintain sustainably in the business? Where do you want to keep that?

Well, no, as I said, I think that the place we'd like to see this is kind of out in that nine to 12 months. I think if you get, you know, beyond 12, you get too much beyond 12 months, you know, I mean, customers are interested in a new aircraft, right? I mean, so I think there's a limit to how far out someone's willing to say, okay, I'm going to wait You know, for a year, it's, it's probably on the, on that shorter side on, on maybe a smaller aircraft where there's not as much customization, it's a little quicker turn, but I think on the larger aircraft, you know, you see it move out of that in more than 12 months or so. So, um, you know, there's not an absolute dollar number we look at, but we do look at demand model by model and, you know, where we think that backlog that cycle time is reasonable in terms of where, how it fits with our production planning, how it fits with our customer's expectations. And as I said, I think that sits, you know, ideally somewhere in that 9 to 12 months with, you know, again, some variability on the models, largely, you know, a smaller aircraft probably being on the shorter side of that and things like a longitude being in that, you know, more that 12 months or so kind of timeline.

And we do have a question from the line of Seth Seifman with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead. Hey, good morning.

It's Tyler on for Seth. Morning. Just on FLORA, can you just provide an update, just maybe where things stand today, what Textron is doing in the meantime and when we can expect the decision?

Sure. So the FLORA program, the proposal went in back at the beginning of September, which was consistent with the Army schedules, what the announcement is that they expect to have an announcement, a decision, and contract with that by the second quarter of next year. So by the end of next June is kind of our expectations. You know, remember that the FLORA program, you know, I feel is a little unique in that, you know, we've obviously put an enormous amount of work into getting the proposal submitted, but in parallel with that, you know, we still are under contract on an OTA, so we are continuing, you know, the design development activity towards PDR, and that, of course, that work is going on in parallel with the Army doing their proposal evaluation. So, you know, the team obviously, you know, kind of worked a lot on the proposal, and now they're all back hard at work at, you know, working towards that next milestone for the program, which will then dovetail into, you know, hopefully a program record.

And we do have a question from the line of Kai Von Rumor with Cowan. Please go ahead.

Yes, thanks so much. So, Scott, obviously demand is strong in aviation. What are you seeing in terms of commodity price hikes and supplier disruptions that might limit your ability to kind of boost production next year?

Well, you know, Kyle, we're not – I mean, look, there's always a pop-up problem even in the best of times, right, with managing a supply chain. I would say we're not seeing big issues right now in the supply chain associated with the A&D businesses. You know, my view is, you know, most of these suppliers – also do defense work, you know, much like our company. And so most of them didn't go through an entirely hard shutdown, as you saw a lot of the commercial world doing. Also, as you know, a lot of these suppliers also, you know, have a lot of business that goes into the commercial aviation space with the Airbuses and the Boeings of the world. And those guys are not back anywhere near the, you know, the demand that they used to have. So there's capacity available, you know, in these supply chains. So, you know, as we work our way through this thing, most of our critical suppliers in the A&D space are able to meet our demand. I'm not suggesting there's never an issue or a problem, but those things pop up here and there. It's also a longer cycle supply chain, so if you do have a problem or a challenge, you've got more time to work on it and go manage it and look for alternatives and work with the supplier around that, whereas in the industrial and commercial world, you tend to find out about a problem that's going to hurt you on Tuesday, the previous Friday. So You know, we don't see as much of that in the A&D side. So I don't think, you know, when we look at this, that we feel like we're going to be supplier constrained at this stage of the game. It's more around managing and making sure that we're doing the right thing here in terms of, you know, production rates versus, you know, long-term demand. And again, managing, you know, to a backlog that works for us and works for our customers.

And we do have a question for the line of Peter Arment with Baird. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning, Scott and Frank. Hey, Scott, just a quick one on, I guess, aviation. You've always kind of talked about this business eventually getting back to crossing over on the double-digit margin front. It seems like you've got everything in place in terms of the overall demand and potentially higher production. What's key for us to see margins kind of cross over that 10% level? Is it just volume, or is there other things you need to see? Thanks.

Well, obviously volume is a huge contributor to that. We've talked about that for a very long time, and I think we'll see. As you remember, we were getting close to that level pre-pandemic, and I think as our volumes are recovering back on track to where we were in 2019 and move beyond that, we clearly have been working to drive to get double-digit margins, and I think we're on track to be doing that. We'll obviously give you more specifics in January, but I feel pretty good about our path to get there.

And we do have a question for the line of Pete Skibitsky with Alembic Global. Please go ahead.

Good morning, guys. Nice quarter. Maybe to piggyback off Kai's question a little bit, Scott, can you talk about kind of how you manage, you know, kind of the two businesses at industrial in this environment? Do you have much visibility at Caltechs? You know, would you guide us in any way at Caltechs over the next couple of quarters? And that is a kind of, you know, it seems like the market is very strong in specialized vehicles, but there's, as you mentioned, some supply chain issues there as well. So I just wondered if you could give us more color on how to think about that segment over the next couple of quarters.

Sure. Obviously, people are a bit different, right? In the case of Caltechs, we're a tier one guy. We're sort of following the OEM path, right? So we don't independently set that. It's, you know, one of the challenges, frankly, this year is, you know, there's been a lot of disruption that the OEMs have felt in changing model types and volumes through the course of the year as a result of other supply chain issues. Fortunately, you know, the Caltechs guys have done a nice job in not being the problem, right? I mean, we've been able to fulfill whatever demand is placed on us, and certainly we don't want to be the reason they can't run a line. So I think our guys have done a really nice job of that. But, you know, we look really at the IHS data, Pete, in terms of how it you know, how we forecast. I mean, we obviously have to go down model by model, but, you know, I think, you know, when you listen to what the OEMs are saying, you know, they're starting to indicate that, you know, a lot of their other issues in their supply chain, which semiconductor is the one that's obviously talked about the most, you know, that that's going to start to abate. And I think if you look at IHS data right now, they're talking about probably a, you know, a 10, 11% increase in global auto volumes as you go from 21% to 22. So that's how we think about our business, right? We look at that IHS data. We don't really have an independent view, I suppose, of what's going on in that market. In the case of our vehicle business, we're the OEM. We're the end market guy. So we are a lot closer in having to make that call. And as you indicated, the good news is demand is very strong. I mean, everything we can build is going out in the channel and selling. Inventory levels are at at, frankly, unhealthy low levels. You know, we're working hard, you know, with our suppliers to get parts in and everything we can build, we can get out there and, you know, tends to be selling through strongly. So I think our guys in the vehicle business, frankly, we would love to have seen, you know, revenue growth, you know, in the quarter from year over year. We couldn't get that just because we can't get the parts to do it. But I think the team has managed, you know, price inflation, disruption and all that sort of stuff so that at least we've, you know, we've been able to hold on to the margin rates where we were, and obviously as we can get the supply chain flowing better and get the revenue top line growing, we think the margins will improve with it. But, you know, our dynamics in that business in terms of pricing and the performance of the business was able to, at least at a margin level, overcome, you know, a lot of the interruptions and inefficiencies that we've seen in the factory. So I think the business is being well run. It just needs to be able to start to generate revenue you know, more top line, and that's a supply issue. And the demand is quite strong. We've got great products out there. And, you know, as a result, we're getting good pricing for them. But, you know, we would love to get higher revenues, and I think we will. We've just got to work through the supply chains.

And we do have a question for the line of the WAG from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, guys.

Good morning.

Scott, you mentioned how longer lead time nature in aviation provides more visibility for the supply chain. And right, that makes sense in a normal environment. The vaccine executive order effective December 8th is a little different than what we've seen before. How are you anticipating this executive order to affect labor, your supply chain, and ability to raise production in aviation? And what mitigating actions can you take?

Well, look, it's a good question, and all of our business as well as obviously all of our key suppliers tend to have that defense component and therefore are subject to the mandate. Frankly, it's a curveball we wish we didn't have, but we're managing our way through it. I think we and all of our peers and suppliers are all sort of in the same place here. It's created a lot of noise. It's not been terribly well received by a pretty sizable portion of our employees. But people are working their way through it. You know, it's the nature of, you know, I think people have accepted it's a fact of what they've got to go do. And, you know, in the end, there's no question that we're going to lose some employees because of this. But we're trying to ramp up our hiring and expectations of that. And, you know, we'll manage our way through it. It's not the first challenge we've ever seen.

And we do have a question for the line of David Strauss with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks for taking the follow-up. I guess, Frank, a question for you on working capital. It looks like you're assuming for the full year a couple hundred million dollars benefit from working capital. I assume that's mainly or predominantly aviation advances. How should we think about working capital as we move into next year? That's my first question. And then any initial thoughts on... on pension income for next year as compared to, I think, you're doing like $30 million or so in pension income this year? Thanks.

Yeah. So, look, on the working capital front, I think, you know, as we said, we've had a strong year from an inventory management standpoint, and the aviation business being far more linear, obviously, is a really good thing there. So we've had, you know, kind of better seasonality of cash flow and good customer experience. deposits, the cash flow for the fourth quarter, implying the guide continues to be in the area of one-to-one or a little over one relative to net income. So we saw a lot of benefits this year that will continue, I think, to see very strong working capital management next year. I'm not ready to guide on it. A lot of it will depend on order activity. I think that on the inventory side and the linearity of the business, We'll continue to see strong performance. It will depend on kind of customer deposit activity to some degree to how that ultimately works out. Look, on the pension side, we're not ready to kind of lay out numbers there. We've had a good year so far on return on assets. Interest rates are up a little bit. So as you sit here today, I don't think that it would expect to be We would expect pensions to continue to be a benefit as we go into 22, but we're not ready to quantify things.

And we do have a question for the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Yeah, thanks. Just a follow-up from me. I was wondering if there's any changes on the divisional guidance to 2021 with one quarter to go?

I don't think, Robert, that we're doing a formal update to you know, to the guides at the segment level, but, you know, clearly aviation and Bell are, you know, strong performers, and I think, you know, you'll see that, you know, versus the original guide, obviously industrial with the, particularly with the auto OEMs, you know, volume down and challenges in the supply chain, you know, that'll be the sort of a bit of a mix shift, I suppose, between, you know, what we originally guided and where we'll land the year.

And our last question comes from the line of Noah Poppenack with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Hey, Frank. Frank, do you expect to be able to grow free cash flow from the manufacturing group next year versus the good performance this year? And then if you could just maybe touch on the systems margin, since that's Seems to have just kind of stepped up to a new level with all the programmatic and mix changes you've had there. I mean, is that just now a sustainably high 14, low 15% business? Thank you.

Yeah, look, we're not going to guide 22. As I said, I believe we'll continue to see solid and strong working capital management next year. We had a lot of benefit this year, particularly at Aviation, again, of getting the business kind of running the way Scott with some visibility on delivery and order activity and run it far more linear. So I would expect that to continue, as I said, into 22. But I'm not going to start kind of guiding cash flow and profitability here for 22. I'm sorry, Noah, the second piece of that was systems margins. Look, on systems we've talked about. has had a very strong year. Defense businesses generally, consistent with how we've talked about Bell, are 10% to 12%. We have made some investments in systems where we're seeing solid return on those investments. There are a number of businesses there where we have invested in assets to drive higher margin, like the ATAC business. We expect to see good execution on a go-forward are kind of strong relative to the general mix of those businesses. So we expect solid execution on a go-forward basis, but we've had a very good year this year.

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