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Operator
Operator
Thank you for standing by welcome to the text Ron third quarter 2024 earnings call at this time all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session, if you would like to ask a question, please press one then zero on your phone keypad should you require assistance press star zero. This conference is being recorded for digitized replay and will be available after 10am Eastern time today. running through October 24th, 2025. You may access the replay by dialing 866-207-1041 and entering the access code of 1480019. I would now like to turn the conference over to David Rosenberg, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
David Rosenberg
Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks, Kaylee, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release. On the call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO, and Frank Conner, our Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. Revenues in the quarter were $3.4 billion, up from $3.3 billion in last year's third quarter. During this year's third quarter, adjusted income from continuing operations was $1.40 per share, compared to $1.49 per share in last year's third quarter. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $147 million in the quarter, compared to $205 million in the third quarter of 2023. With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. During the quarter, aviation experienced a strike on the expiration of its existing labor agreement with the IAM. Work stoppage caused disruption to our aircraft production and service in our Wichita facilities. On October the 20th, the IAM ratified a new five-year contract, ending a four-week strike. As employees return to work and production and delivery activities recover, the resulting disruptions will impact our 2024 financial results. In the quarter, aviation delivered 41 jets, up from 39 last year, and 25 commercial turboprops, down from 38 in last year's third quarter. Aftermarket revenues grew 5% for the third quarter of 2023 versus 2023, and our year-to-date aftermarket revenues are up 8% as compared to prior year. Aviation continues to see strong demand in the quarter, booking over $1 billion in new orders. Backlog grew $162 million, ending the third quarter at $7.6 billion. During the quarter, aviation delivered the 400th Cessna Citation Latitude. The Latitude has been the best-selling aircraft in the midsize jet segment since it was introduced into service in 2015. At NBAA this week, aviation also announced the Gen 3 updates of the Citation M2, CJ3, and CJ4, reflecting continued investments in this product portfolio. At Bell, revenues were $929 million, up $175 million over last year, and second profit was $98 million, up $21 million as compared to the third quarter of last year. During the quarter, the U.S. Army announced approval of Milestone B for the FLARA program. This significant milestone establishes FLARA as a program of record and transition the program to the engineering and manufacturing development phase. This phase includes continued digital modeling, detailed hardware and software design, and fabrication of hardware, as Bell proceeds to critical design review and the first flight planned for 2026. As a result of milestone B and the subsequent EMD award, Bell's backlog grew by $2.3 billion in the quarter, now totaling $6.5 billion. On the commercial side, Bell saw increased order activity in the quarter, They'll deliver 44 helicopters, up from 23 in last year's third quarter. Textile and systems revenues and profits were slightly lower compared to last year. In the quarter, systems completed two major milestones in the Army's FTES program, a modular open systems approach conformance evaluation, and a prototype aircraft flight demonstration. The team will now proceed to option four of the competitive program, which includes delivery of a production representative aircraft system for Army testing and evaluation. Systems expanded its U.S. Navy aerosound operations with awards for two new land-based sites and three new maritime sites. Also in the quarter, Systems delivered two prototype Ripsaw M3 robotic vehicles to the U.S. Army for testing as part of Phase I of the Robotic Combat Vehicle Program. The Army is expected to sound select Phase II for a production representative prototype in mid-2025. Moving to industrial, the segment experienced lower revenues in operating profit in the quarter, driven by continuing softness in specialized vehicles and markets. Specialized vehicles continue to take cost actions to align with lower production volumes. Moving to e-aviation, the Nuva 300 continued integration testing, including a full system power-on and flight simulation run conducted this quarter. The team is now focused on preparations for the aircraft's first hover flight, which is expected in Q4 of this year. Also during the quarter, the Nexus eVTOL program continued to progress on the wing and empennage assemblies and outfitting of the ground control station. preparation for the start of flight testing, which is expected to begin in 2025. Finally, as we announced yesterday, we're making some important executive changes at Textron. Our CFO, Frank Connor, has notified us that he intends to retire from the company on February the 28th of 2025. Dave Rosenberg, our current vice president in investor relations, has been elected as our new executive vice president and chief financial officer, succeeding Frank. Dave has more than 24 years of experience in the aviation industry, and has served in a series of finance and strategy positions at Textron Aviation, Beechcraft, and its predecessor companies. In addition, Scott Hegstrom has been elected Vice President of Investor Relations, replacing Dave. Both elections are effective March 1, 2025. I want to thank Frank for his outstanding leadership and significant contributions to Textron during the 15 years, and to congratulate Dave and Scott on their new appointments. With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.
Frank Conner
Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation. In the third quarter of 2024, delayed aircraft deliveries, along with unfavorable performance resulting from the IAM strike, lowered Textron Aviation's revenues by about $50 million and Segment Profit by around $30 million. Revenue at Textron Aviation of $1.3 billion were essentially flat with the third quarter of 2023, with higher pricing of $36 million, mostly offset by lower volume and mix of $35 million. Segment Profit was $128 million in the third quarter down $32 million from a year ago, largely due to lower volume and mix of $29 million. Backline in the segment ended the quarter at $7.6 billion, up $162 million from the second quarter. Moving to Bell, revenues were $929 million, up $175 million from last year, largely reflecting higher volume and mix of $148 million. Volume and mix included higher military volume of $81 million, primarily related to the FAR program, and higher commercial volume and mix of $67 million, reflecting an increase in deliveries. Segment profit of $98 million was up $21 million from last year's third quarter, largely due to a favorable impact from performance of $17 million and favorable pricing, net of inflation of $12 million. Backlog in the segment end of the quarter at $6.5 billion. At Tektron Systems, revenues were $301 million, down $8 million from last year's third quarter, largely due to lower volume. Segment profit of $39 million was down $2 million from a year ago. Backlog into segment end of the quarter at $1.9 billion. Industrial revenues were $840 million, down $82 million from last year's third quarter, mainly due to lower volume and mix of $86 million, principally in the specialized vehicles product line. Segment profit of $32 million was down $19 million from the third quarter of 2023, primarily due to lower volume and mix. Textron e-aviation segment revenues were $6 million, and segment loss was $18 million in the third quarter of 2024, compared with a segment loss of $19 million in the third quarter of 2023. Finance segment revenues were $12 million, and profit was $5 million. Moving below segment profit, corporate expenses were $20 million. Net interest expense from the manufacturing group was $22 million. LIFO inventory provision was $49 million. Intangible asset amortization was 9 million, and the non-service components of pension and post-retirement income were 66 million. In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 2.4 million shares, returning 215 million in cash to shareholders. Year-to-date, we have repurchased approximately 10.1 million shares, returning 890 million in cash to shareholders. Textron is adjusting its full-year outlook to include the expected impact of the aviation strike on its financial results. Textron now expects 2024 adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations to be in a range of $5.40 to $5.60 per share, down from its previous outlook of $6.20 to $6.40 per share. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions is now expected to be in a range of $650 to $750 million, as compared to its previous outlook of $900 million to $1 billion, with planned pension contributions of about $50 million. Looking to aviation, we now expect total year revenue of about $5.5 billion, with an expected segment margin of around 11%. At Bell, while total year revenue outlook is unchanged, we expect an improved segment margin in the range of 10.5% to 11%. At systems, the revenue outlook is unchanged with a segment margin estimated at the top end or slightly above our original guidance range of 11% to 12%. Looking to industrial, we now expect revenues to be about $3.5 billion with an expected segment margin of around 4%. At e-aviation, we now expect revenue to be about $35 million with segment margin unchanged at a loss of around $75 million. At finance, we now expect revenue to be about $50 million, with segment margin of around $30 million. Below segment profit, we now expect corporate expenses to be around $135 million, interest expense to be about $85 million, and a tax rate of 17.5%. That concludes our prepared remarks, so operator, we can open the line for questions.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. For those asking questions, we ask that you please take yourself off speakerphone for the best sound quality. We'll go to the line of David Strauss with Barclays.
David Strauss
Analyst, Barclays
Good morning. Thanks, and congrats, Frank and Dave. Thank you. Scott, could you just maybe touch on how things are going at AVH in terms of restarting or, you know, restarting production and kind of what have you assumed in the updated forecast for aviation? I think you had $5.5 billion in revenue in terms of jet deliveries. Thanks.
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Sure, David. So, I mean, obviously, we got the ratification last weekend, which was very important. Under the terms of the contract, the workforce has, you know, up to five days to come back in. So, you know, we are starting to ramp and get things back in place. I think I talked to Ron yesterday, we probably had about 60% of the workforce was back in yesterday. We expect that, you know, to continue to ramp and clearly expect to be at full, you know, full representation on Monday. So, you know, when we factor in the numbers, we kind of think about that. That's why, you know, the half a billion dollar, you know, revenue drop that you know, not really four weeks. It's more like a five-week, you know, strike. And then we've got to get all the ramping and get the line back up and running here as we get into fourth quarter. But I guess I'd say, David, the good news is that's what we're focused on, right? We have a five-year deal in place that's, you know, good for employees. It's good for us. Our total focus right now is getting things ramped up. You know, we've spent, obviously, a lot of time here over the last four or five weeks continuing to work with our supply chains to make sure that, you know, parts are coming in and suppliers who have been late to PO or getting back to current. So, you know, our complete focus right now is getting everybody back in the door and getting the factory up and running and hopefully more efficient than it's been over the past few years as we get better park flow.
David Strauss
Analyst, Barclays
Okay. Thanks for that color. And Frank, in terms of the lower forecast for free cash flow for the year, it looks like you know, maybe you're losing about $125 million from lower earnings. CapEx, I think, is a little bit lower than you had previously forecast. What accounts for, you know, looks like, you know, $200 million of the additional $200 million hit on the free cash flow side?
Frank Conner
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, we're going to have some inventory headwinds associated with, you know, kind of the slower kind of ramp up here and the impact of the production. You know, as Scott said, it's kind of a five-week impact. We We want to get healthy from a supply chain standpoint, so we certainly looked at kind of mitigating the cash impact of the strike, but we also want to make sure that we were healthy as we come out of this. So that's really the impact, and we'll then have that inventory, obviously, to burn through and sell in 2025.
David Strauss
Analyst, Barclays
Thanks very much.
Operator
Operator
We'll go next to the line of Sheila Kayaglu with Jefferies.
Sheila Kayaglu
Analyst, Jefferies
Good morning, Frank and Dave, and congratulations, Frank, of course. So just going back to the EPS cut of 80 cents, I think industrial is about 30 cents. That's a headwind, but Bell is a 10 cent offset. How do we think about, I guess, aviation into 2024, exiting Q4, and then also industrial, just given a 4% margin to exit the year?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
On the industrial front, we've seen softness all year. We've talked about that each quarter. So I think as we've revised the guidance, beyond just giving color, we're trying to give you guys some specific each one of the segments. And so I think our expectation right now is that those softnesses in that end market are going to continue. As we've talked about in previous quarters, we're just cutting way back on production volume. We don't want to put stuff out in the channel. I don't think dealers want things in the channel until they get better perspective and view on where things are going in terms of interest rates, and they're in market. So I think this was just, you know, we're just kind of firming up our view on the total guide on that segment. You know, the bigger issue for us, obviously, is, you know, we've got to get the aviation business ramped back up again here. You know, as Frank talked about, we're, you know, given the delays in some of these deliveries, we're going to certainly carry out more inventory through the end of the year of work in process, and than we would normally have, you know, coming out of the Q4. But, you know, I guess it's important to note, you know, these sales aren't lost, right? I mean, these are pushed and we're, you know, going to ultimately deliver these aircraft. So as we think about 2025, you know, we clearly expect we're going to see, you know, revenue progression over what our original 2024 guide was. You know, we're continuing to ramp. And I think, you know, now with the contract behind us, we're optimistic about seeing more stability in the workforce and, clearly a better position on supplier parts. And it's tough to recover all that in one quarter, but I think we'll have good momentum as we go into 2025.
Sheila Kayaglu
Analyst, Jefferies
And just on the contract, how do we think about the headwind in 2025 as we factor in the wage increase?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Well, that was largely baked into our plans. The deal was a little bit more than we expected, but it's You know, direct labor is about 10% of our costs. So, I mean, our focus at this point will be making sure we can drive the right productivity and efficiency to compensate for that. But, you know, I think, you know, it's a fair deal. It's good for our employees. And our view is we want these to be the best jobs in town. We think it's, you know, this is a hugely important workforce. You know, we need good people. We need to retain them. And we'd like to be that best job. And I think this makes us the best job in town. So it's a good trade for us.
Seth Seisman
Analyst, JP Morgan
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
We'll go next to the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.
Robert Stallard
Analyst, Vertical Research
Thanks so much. Good morning. Good morning. I just want to follow up on David's question, really, and the recovery plan. It sounds like you've taken a fairly proactive approach to managing the supply chain. You haven't turned anyone off. In fact, you've just kept things going, and you've built up this inventory. Is that a fair analysis?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Yeah. Look, David, I mean, in parts, Part shortages, while it has improved over the last few years, has still been problematic, I think, for everybody in the industry. It's gotten to be a smaller number of part numbers that are a problem, but they're still a problem. And that was continuing to drive a lot of out-of-station work and just significant inefficiencies in the factory. So our view was nobody wins a strike. A strike is not a good thing, but we certainly, during the period of the strike, were committed to go continue to work with those flyers and try to resolve that problem so you know again from our perspective this is all about how you move forward and you know expecting we'll get the workforce back in which is which is now happening that we would put ourselves in a better situation in terms of parts and back shops and these things so that we can be more efficient uh going forward so yeah that's going to cost a little bit of inventory but you know all that inventory is going to turn into airplanes so i'm not particularly worried about that okay and there's a follow-up part on industrial you mentioned uh
Robert Stallard
Analyst, Vertical Research
that specialty vehicles have been having some demand challenges. What about at Cautex? Have you seen any softening on the European auto front?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Well, for sure we have. I mean, auto is down around the world. European is probably the most challenged market. So the volumes are somewhat below where we would like them to be. But frankly, that team does a really good job of managing through and and dealing with that and offsetting with productivity and pricing. And so I think the Caltech guys actually have been performing quite well.
Robert Stallard
Analyst, Vertical Research
Okay. That's great. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
And next we'll go to the line of Peter Arment with Baird.
Peter Arment
Analyst, Baird
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, Scott. Scott, maybe just to talk about just on the heels of NBAA, you guys obviously saw some nice bookings this quarter. Can you talk maybe just about, What you're seeing on the demand environment still seems obviously very favorable for a lot of your models.
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Yeah, Peter, I think it has. We had over a billion dollars here in Q3. As you know, Q3 is usually historically one of the lighter ones, right? The summer, July, August is kind of usually quieter. I think it was a good quarter of order activity. We're very encouraged. The refreshes that the team is putting out in both M2, CJ3, the new CJ4. Of course, we have the Ascend model. you know, which we announced too long, that's coming along very well. So, you know, the number of updates, which are pretty significant in terms of capability of the aircraft and safety, particularly with launching Autoland across all those single pilot, you know, jet platforms is driving strong demand. So I think the end market continues to feel good. Order activity is, you know, flow is good. So I think we're still feeling good about where the industry is.
Peter Arment
Analyst, Baird
Yeah, and you just, as a follow-up on pricing, I guess, none of inflation, you guys have done pretty well, you know, all year. What's the latest there? I assume, given that the demand of iron is healthy.
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Yeah, pricing is still good, Peter, in the marketplace. But, you know, as we've talked about, I think the price inflation number is, you know, is compressing, right? I mean, so I would not expect to see big, you know, contributions of necessarily price over inflation, right? What we've really got to be doing is driving productivity and efficiency in the factories to continue to maintain that momentum. So the pricing dynamic is good. That's not a problem. But you had these pretty significant price inflation spreads. And again, that will, as we talked about before, that will be coming down. But we're not banking on that to drive the kind of margin and performance that we need to see going forward. We've really got to drive gold fashion productivity and efficiency on that volume.
Frank Conner
Chief Financial Officer
The only thing I'd add on that is, you know, for this quarter and next quarter with the lower volume, which is where price comes through and essentially inflation across all aspects of the cost structure, not just the aircraft, but SG&A and other things, that puts pressure on price versus net of inflation. So, you know, for this quarter, it's net zero price, but that is certainly impacted by the lower volume associated with the strike, and that will have an impact on the price versus inflation.
Noah Popinak
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
inflation on a net basis in the fourth quarter as well i just appreciate all the color thanks guys we'll go next to the line of noah popinak with goldman sachs hey good morning everybody good morning frank congrats on the retirement thanks for all the uh help and the relationship over the years and and david congrats on on the cfo thanks thanks How many Cessna jet deliveries are we expecting in the fourth quarter, given, you know, the abnormal backdrop with the strike and the recovery?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Well, no, I mean, we've never given a number of number jets, so I think we'll probably just stick to revenue at this stage of the game. But, you know, I mean, it's a half a billion in revenue, obviously, adjustment, which is pretty significant. But, yeah, I think that accounts for, you know, what's turning out to be really a kind of a five-week strike, you know,
Noah Popinak
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Duration and then just you know, the inefficiencies and the time of getting it wrapped back up and going Okay Okay, and Scott I guess in 2025 should we anticipate that you know Jan 1 when you're starting a year you're you're pretty much recovered and it's a clean run rate production line or could there be disruption that bleeds into the beginning of the year and then should we expect a the aircraft that slip out at 24 to add what, you know, you previously had planned for 25? Or does it kind of smooth out over a longer period of time?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Well, so first of all, we certainly expect by January 1, we're running at, you know, normal productivity and a smooth rate. You know, I mean, we're here in, you know, kind of late October. We've got, you know, November, December here to get things, you know, ramped and operating smoothly. So I certainly expect by the start of the year, you know, the factory will be stable and doing well. I guess the only, I mean, we're kind of probably not ready to guide 2025 yet, but as I said, no, I do think if you look at, you know, what we were doing in production ramp and our expectations in terms of where we were going to be in 2025, well, the 2024 is obviously an issue and impacted. We certainly expect to see, you know, good healthy revenue growth in 25 above what we originally guided in 24. Okay.
Noah Popinak
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
And then just lastly, on the margin at aviation, should we all just continue to contemplate the incremental margin framework you've referenced in the past, or is cost now different enough, or is there still a lot of opportunity on the productivity front? How should we be thinking about that over the medium term?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Look, we still think about those businesses converting at 20-plus percent in terms of you know, revenue, given the kind of the mix of gross margin across the business. So that's still, I think, an appropriate, you know, long-term guide.
Noah Popinak
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Next, we'll go to the line of Miles Walton with Wolf Research.
Miles Walton
Analyst, Wolf Research
Thanks. Good morning. I was wondering if you could talk to systems. You mentioned the two contracts that are being decided next year, FTUAS and the robotic combat vehicle. Is an outcome on those basically going to dictate whether or not systems can start a real growth profile? It's been obviously flattish here for a long, long time. How critical are those two programs?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Absolutely. These are programs that we've been investing for a long time to position ourselves. They are key factors of driving growth for the business in the future. There's other programs, obviously. In fact, I think, frankly, if you look at 2024, that business is performing extraordinarily well. We did take a hit at the beginning of the year, which we did not anticipate, around the shadow getting pulled out of service. Other businesses within systems over the course of the year have grown to help to offset that. And as we said, even with that hit, which was not trivial to us, the businesses are are hitting their original guide in terms of revenue, and they're going to be on the high side of their margins. So I think the systems team is performing very well. But, yeah, absolutely, those programs like FTUAS and like RCV, and, of course, there's ARV in the year out, and such are key drivers of growth in the future.
Miles Walton
Analyst, Wolf Research
Okay. And just one quick one. Is the 525 still on track for 4Q cert, or is that slipping into 25s?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
I were actually just down there yesterday. Look, the flight test program is continuing. I hate to put dates out there because we don't certify that, right? I mean, it's, you know, I'd say the relationship and the work going on with the FAA is good. Flight test program is going well. Whether it gets this year, you know, if I were to guess, I would probably say it would slip into 2025 just because of just the sheer amount of documentation and paperwork and number of approvals that, you know, that need to flow through. you know, before the official TC gets put on there. So we continue to do the work on the flight test and all the work that we have to do on our side. And, of course, we're already moving a lot of resource into, you know, various kits and capabilities, you know, that need to be added onto the aircraft over its life cycle. And that work will go on in parallel with the certification process.
Miles Walton
Analyst, Wolf Research
All right. Thanks for the call.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And we'll go next to the line of Seth Seisman with JP Morgan.
Seth Seisman
Analyst, JP Morgan
Hey, thanks very much and good morning. Good morning. And congratulations, Frank and Dave. Wanted to ask about the margin in aviation. And so EXPA strike, it looks like it was kind of in the mid 11% range, which was, you know, kind of below the guidance range for the year. I know there's variability quarter to quarter, and you talked about Q2 being exceptionally strong, but, you know, just anything to point out there with regard to, you know, why we saw kind of a step down there versus what we've, you know, become accustomed to seeing in recent quarters.
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Well, look, guys, I mean, the strikes are a bit messy, right? When you go back and you look at idle facility and, you know, impacts and total year volumes and, you know, assumed overhead rates and liquidation rates, so part of what you're seeing in the quarter and the year is you've got to factor in a lot of significantly lower volume all of a sudden with a lot of cost, some of which is not variable. And so that's part of why you see that drag in both Q3 as well as in our updated guidance for the full year.
Seth Seisman
Analyst, JP Morgan
Okay. Got it. And then I guess maybe thinking about the margin at Bell and profitability coming in ahead of expectations this year? You know, as far continues to grow, is it, you know, is this something where you can kind of, you know, continue to maybe, you know, see some improvement here, you know, given performance elsewhere? Or, you know, should we still be thinking about, you know, maybe maybe profit dollar growth, but margin rate decline?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Yeah, look, we're still trying to drive the profit dollar growth. The flower program is growing and will continue to grow next year fairly significantly, which is great, obviously, but that is, as you know, at a lower margin mix. But the commercial market is strong, so that's helpful to us. The wind in Nigeria, which is actually going to grow the The H-1 original equipment volumes here over the next couple, two, three years is obviously helpful. So there are some things in there mix-wise that are helping. But again, I still think given the significant growth of the FLORA program, our focus really is how do we continue to be creative and make sure that we're growing the margin dollars in these subsequent years.
Seth Seisman
Analyst, JP Morgan
Excellent. Thanks very much.
Operator
Operator
And we'll go next to the line of Doug Harnett. with Bernstein.
Doug Harnett
Analyst, Bernstein
Good morning. Thank you. And also, congrats to Frank and Dave. If you look forward from here, say over the next five years, and thinking about what you're going to be investing in on the aviation side with respect to R&D and CapEx, How do you see that profile evolving, and are there specific areas where you really intend to be focusing there?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Well, look, I mean, I think that I don't see us making a big change. I think what we've been doing for the last number of years, and I would expect we continue to do in the future, is a nice mix of upgrade programs to our existing portfolio, which, as we talked about earlier, drives growth. drives healthy growth and, you know, is very well received, I'd say, on the customer front, you know, with an occasional new product, you know, clean sheet that drops in. So that is a formula that has worked for us, and I think we'll continue to make that. You know, from an R&D perspective, you know, we've talked about kind of making this, you know, add or a slight tailwind in terms of on a percent of sales basis. You know, part of our margin challenge here towards the end of the year is we've You assume that what you're doing on the R&D front is fairly fixed over the course of the year. So if you lose a big chunk of revenue, obviously, in a strike, that kind of hurts you a little bit. But that's an unusual circumstance, obviously. So I think we'll see fairly stable R&D, and we'll raise it appropriately when we have the right programs to invest. But I'd say, generally speaking, we view that it should be a tailwind in terms of what percent of sales for the business, while making the right investments to keep growing the business.
Doug Harnett
Analyst, Bernstein
And then separately, when we go into 2025, and if we put the strike aside for the moment, you said that during the strike you've been able to make some progress with respect to the supply chain. It seemed that really the limiting factor for you in aviation is not demand. It may be really just the supply chain. So if you've been able to narrow some of the issues within the supply chain, can you describe –
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
where the bottlenecks are now the principal bottlenecks and if there's a point you see where you think you can get back to a world when the limiting factor is no longer dealing with the supplier issues well i think the limiting factor i mean it has been some critical supply things it's been our own resourcing and staffing and and you know the the ramp but as i said i think that you know when i when i think about you know how you look at 2025 despite the interruptions that we've had here in 2024, I think our plans in terms of expanding capacity and delivering more product, increasing our revenue, that that thesis is still on track. You'll see that in 2025, despite the fact that we had an interruption in production here in 2024. So we have had a ramp plan that was coordinated with suppliers and our own you know, internal resourcing and staffing, and I think that's still in place, and that's why you should expect that, you know, we'll see revenue growth in 25 above the 24 original guidance.
Peter Arment
Analyst, Baird
Very good. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
We'll go next to the line of Jason Gursky with Citi.
Jason Gursky
Analyst, Citi
Hey, good morning. Frank, congrats on and good luck with the next phase. And Dave, congratulations. Well deserved. I look forward to working with you more closely in that role. Scott, a couple of quick questions for you. You mentioned labor productivity earlier as a way to offset, you know, maybe some of the higher costs associated with the strike. I'm just curious if you can make some bigger picture generalized comments about labor productivity, maybe now versus where we were prior to the pandemic and kind of the things that you are doing to drive labor productivity back to maybe where we were, if it was better back then and how much longer you think it takes for labor productivity to kind of return to historic levels.
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Well, look, there were two major contributors to the inefficiencies, which certainly manifest themselves largely in productivity in the factory. Part of it was certainly supplier parts. When you're looking at running a production line and you've got lots of holes in your part bin, you start doing stuff that's out of sequence and having to rework things and swap things between aircraft, and there's a lot of disruption that comes from that. As I said, I think Well, it won't be perfect. We did work through the strike period to try to get the on-time to PO and supplier delivery to where we have many, many, many fewer of these instances where we don't have the part available at the time that we need to consume that part in the various stages of the production line. The other, frankly, is just sheer labor, right? I mean, like most companies, Coming out of COVID, we saw a lot of turnover. We have a lot of hiring of new people, so there's been a lot of training. Clearly, that drives a lot of inefficiencies. It's not just that new person. It's our senior people who participate in helping to train and develop these new people. I do think that the labor contract and getting that behind us, it's a significant GWI, but it makes these jobs even more attractive in that market. which we think makes us as an employer more attractive and hopefully stronger on the retention side. So stabilizing that, not just adding the numbers of people, but getting it towards a stable number and it's the same people that are coming in is a huge part of that. So I think that the parts thing I feel much better about. We worked out really hard over the last month or so to get that in a much healthier way. place. And again, I think with, uh, with the GWIs that are out there, this is, these are the best jobs in town. And I think that will help us not just attract, but also retain that hourly workforce that builds these aircraft, which is critical to driving that efficiency and productivity in our factory.
Jason Gursky
Analyst, Citi
Okay, great. That's helpful. And then the second question was, um, just more of a, maybe a philosophical one. If you could wave a magic wand, and always have this be the case. I know this is difficult to control, but kind of months of backlog in the aviation business. What is the north star for you all? Where would you like to try to manage the business to on a pretty consistent basis over the longer term?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Well, if you look at it, it's a little bit different across different products in our portfolio, but I would say generally speaking, Being out there 18, 24 months is a very healthy place for us to be for a couple of reasons. One, many of our customers already own aircraft and their ability to remarket their aircraft and manage and know what their timeline is and what a window of time to go sell their aircraft is important. And it also gives us the right amount of time to specify aircraft and interiors and go through a very you know, smooth process, you know, where we know when that aircraft hit the line, you know, what, you know, what is that aircraft, right? What's the configuration? A lot of stuff is standard, obviously, but there are customizations that happen towards the latter part of the process. And having that, you know, all set and well understood, being able to signal and have a consistent, you know, volume and delivery dates with our suppliers, I mean, it really helps to make a business where it can run smoothly when you can see out that 18 to 24 months on volumes and product mix and product configuration. Great. That's helpful. Appreciate it, guys.
Operator
Operator
And we'll go next to the line of Gavin Parsons with UBS.
Gavin Parsons
Analyst, UBS
Thanks, Morning, and Frank and Dave, congrats. Thanks. I just wanted to ask a couple of margin questions on industrial. Are you still seeing some benefit of the restructuring, or is that largely already in place at this point?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Well, I mean, I think clearly we've been restructuring through the course of the year, but I'd say there's more restructuring to come, for sure. You know, I think the end markets, and particularly in a couple of segments of the business, are continuing to be soft, and I think they're going to be soft for a little while. So we'll continue to do what we think is appropriate to restructure and maximize our performance in each of those business segments.
Gavin Parsons
Analyst, UBS
And on aviation, can you just remind us how the performance accounting line works? If you have costs on aircraft this year that deliver next year, do we expect some margin headwind there?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
The performance line is, there's a lot of stuff in the performance line. I don't know if I could walk through it. I mean, you know, but clearly this quarter and for the full year, you've got unusual things in there, right? I mean, factory inefficiency, you know, I mean, we're period expensing idle factory costs, which is not a normal thing for us, obviously, you know, manufacturing variances go through that. It's, there's a, there's a, there's a lot of moving parts in, in that so-called performance line.
Peter Arment
Analyst, Baird
Understood. Thank you. All right.
Operator
Operator
And we'll go next to the line of Pete Skibitsky of Olympic. Please go ahead.
Pete Skibitsky
Analyst, Olympic
Hey, good morning, guys. I was wondering if we could go back to FLARA now that you have the milestone B approval. I just wonder if you could put a finer point on the revenue line since it's so substantial. I think last I recall you were thinking about $900 million in revenue this year. And, Scott, you're talking about substantial increase next year. Is there any way to put a finer point on that?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Oh, Pete, I think, you know, 900 is probably around the right number this year. It's probably going to be one to 200 million higher than that next year, you know, just, you know, based on what's in the budget. So, I mean, I have a little bit, I always try to be a little careful here, Pete. I mean, these things are appropriated, right? You know, they're not appropriated yet. I mean, we don't actually have a budget. So, but I, you know, if you look at what's in the appropriations process, I guess, you know, once they pass a budget, I would expect that we'll see some, you know, additional you know, ramp as, as we go into next year. So, and I think there's definitely army, there's full support for this. I mean, obviously the criticality of getting through CDR is, uh, is huge as a, you know, and so I, I think the customer is just as committed as we are to keep driving this thing forward. And that will, you know, that only happens with, you know, some increased funding next year. And I think everybody's on board with that.
Pete Skibitsky
Analyst, Olympic
Okay. No, I appreciate it. And then just, um, the decision to insert the cabin from spirit, um, what's the right way to think about sort of the technical and the schedule risk there? Obviously, it's probably easier than if you were kind of midstream in production, but can you give us a sense of how you guys are viewing that decision?
Scott Donnelly
Chairman and CEO
Well, look, I think that the, as you kind of know, Peter, given the status of where that was, right, kind of just starting EMD, you know, made it a fairly low risk, you know, easy process to execute. The Spirit team, the was highly collaborative and worked very, very closely with us in that process, and it's done. So we're focused on going forward. We're executing to that, and so far, so good.
Pete Skibitsky
Analyst, Olympic
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We have no further questions in queue at this time, and today's conference is being recorded for digitized replay. and will be available after 10 a.m. Eastern Time today through October 24, 2025. You may access the replay by dialing 866-207-1041 and entering the access code of 1480019. This does conclude the conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may
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