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spk07: Good morning and welcome to the Urban Edge Properties third quarter 2022 funding school. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the call, please press star then zero to signal an operator. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host.
spk02: Good morning, and welcome to Urban Edge Properties' third quarter earnings conference call. Joining me today are Jeff Olson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mark Langer, Chief Financial Officer, Danielle DeVita, Executive Vice President of Development, Rob Milton, General Counsel, Scott Oster, Senior Vice President and Head of Leasing, and Andrea Drazen, Chief Accounting Officer. Please note today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements about the company's views of future events and financial performance, which are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, and which the company does not undertake to update. Our actual future results, financial condition, and business may differ materially. Please refer to our filings with the SEC, which are also available on our website, for more information about the company. In our discussion today, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to GAAP results are available in our earnings release and supplemental disclosure package in the investors section of our website. At this time, it is my pleasure to introduce our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Jeff Olson.
spk03: Jeff Olson Thank you, Eitan, and good morning, everyone. I am pleased to announce another strong quarter with FFO is adjusted of $0.30 per share, an 8% increase over the third quarter of last year, and a 7% increase year-to-date. This increase is primarily attributed to NOI growth and the acquisitions of Woodward Town Center outside of Washington, D.C., and the shops at Riverwood in Boston. The shopping center industry continues to benefit from strong demand from a broad set of retailers, especially throughout the suburbs around New York City. Just in the past year, we have increased our occupancy from 93% to 95%, a notable growth rate following the pandemic. We have visible NOI growth coming from our signed but not yet open pipeline which has increased to $28 million, representing approximately 12% of our current NOI. We also have 1 million square feet of leases under negotiation, representing an additional 10% of annualized NOI. Our team is energized and committed to getting our portfolio back to our prior occupancy levels of 97% to 98%. Our properties are predominantly situated in the first ring suburbs within the DC to Boston corridor, the most densely populated supply constrained market in the United States. Leading retailers continue to expand and are focused on growing their omni-channel offerings within our core markets. We are thrilled that Target recently executed a 139,000 square foot lease at Bruckner Commons in the Bronx. Over the past five years, we have transformed a dated 1970s era shopping center previously anchored by Kmart, Toys R Us, and a local grocery store into a dominant destination that will be anchored by Target, ShopRite, Burlington, Marshalls, and five below. We have redesigned the facades, walkways, and outdoor seating areas, making this property one of the most attractive shopping centers in the area. Target will solidify the center's position as one of the most important retail nodes in the Bronx, and we have more upside coming from leasing the remaining 41,000 square feet of space adjacent to Target and the 43,000 square foot former toys box. We currently have $261 million of active redevelopment projects underway and expect to generate a 10% unlevered return on this investment. Our tenant coordination team is the busiest they have been in years, preparing to open over 50 new stores within our portfolio. As approximately 90% of these projects are associated with executed leases, there is minimal speculative risk. Notably, the $26 million project to relocate Kohl's into Bergentown Center is two quarters ahead of its original schedule, as Kohl's will hold its grand opening tomorrow. The store looks great, and we are excited to reactivate 134,000 square feet of space that has been vacant for almost two years. We look forward to seeing other new anchor stores open in the coming quarters, including ShopRite and Marshalls at Huntington, Sector 66 at Las Catalinas, Nemours Children's Health at Broomall, and Ralph's Grocery Store and Walgreens at Monte Hedra. We are keeping a close eye on inflationary pressures and the potential impact on consumer spending. The macroeconomic environment and the associated rising cost of capital will make the prospect of near-term acquisitions challenging. We are also cognizant of the impact these same pressures could have on our retail tenants. However, we would also note that the majority of our rent comes from tenants that are traditionally in recession resilient categories, and our overall tenancy is weighted towards well-capitalized national or regional retailers. Given current market conditions and considering the economic challenges that may arise in 2023, our plan is to protect our balance sheet and carefully scrutinize future capital and redevelopment spending to ensure appropriate yield hurdles are met. Additionally, we will be performing an intensive review of G&A as we finalize our 2023 budget to ensure we are taking measures to run the business as efficiently as possible. We are excited to welcome Jeff Muellem as our next Chief Operating Officer. Jeff, Mark, and I worked together for many years at Equity One, and he has a unique skill set covering a range of disciplines, including acquisitions, leasing, construction, legal, and development. He's a great leader and values our culture of transparency, community, and growth. We look forward to having Jeff meet with the investment community in the new year after he starts, and we will certainly have him with us during our Investor Day we plan to hold this spring. On the governance side, we continue to refresh our board with outstanding talent. I am pleased to welcome Mary Baglivo and Kathy Sandstrom to our board of trustees. Mary was previously the CEO of the Americas for Saatchi & Saatchi, and Kathy was a senior managing director at Heitman, one of the largest real estate investors in the United States, both on the private and public side. I will now turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Mark Langer.
spk01: Thanks, Jeff. Good morning. I will discuss drivers of our third quarter results, outline key assumptions within our newly announced guidance for 2022, and we'll close with comments on our balance sheet and liquidity. First, in terms of our third quarter results, we had a very good quarter with FFO as adjusted of 30 cents per share. achieving same property NOI growth of 3.4% compared to the third quarter of last year, or 1.5% when including properties in redevelopment. NOI growth this quarter benefited from the recovery of amounts deemed uncollectible in prior periods of $2.5 million versus $1.9 million we received in the third quarter of last year. Turning to the fundamentals. same property leased occupancy increased 180 basis points year over year, likely one of the highest growth rates in the strip sector. As compared to the second quarter, the same property leased occupancy rate is down 20 basis points, predominantly due to the anticipated expiration of one 45,000 square foot anchor lease at our well-located property in Totowa, New Jersey. Having anticipated this vacancy, we are already in discussions with multiple users to backfill the space. During the quarter, total portfolio shop occupancy increased 40 basis points to 83.7% as we executed deals with quality tenants including Shake Shack, First Watch, Golf Tech, and Dunkin', among many others. One side note on our same property occupancy. Given the redevelopment taking place at Bruckner Commons, The asset is not currently in the same property pool, but the target lease will increase consolidated occupancy by 90 basis points. Overall leasing spreads this quarter were negative 1.1%. The negative spread was driven by the renewal of a strong anchor at one of our assets where we agreed to accept a lower rent in exchange for control rights and renewal terms we obtained at some of our other locations with this tenant. As we have mentioned in the past, our smaller portfolio size makes our spreads more volatile. To this point, spreads on new leases we have executed since the end of the third quarter, including the Target lease, are slightly above 100% given Target is paying twice what Kmart was paying on comparable space. Jeff noted the $28 million of gross rents we expect to realize from leases signed but not yet rent commenced. This is up from $23 million we reported last quarter and reflects $7.3 million of new rents from recently executed leases, including targeted Bruckner, while $1.8 million of rents commenced during the period, resulting in a net increase of $5.5 million. We have updated our disclosure related to the timing of the Sign But Not Open pipeline highlighting that we expect about $600,000 in Q4 of this year with an additional $10.9 million coming next year. Details can be found on page 22 of our supplement. In terms of our balance sheet and liquidity, we ended the quarter with total cash of $152 million and have no amounts drawn on our recently expanded and recast $800 million line of credit. which has a new maturity date of February, 2027. We continue to explore all options related to refinancing our $300 million Bergen mortgage maturing in April, which is the bulk of our total 329 million of maturities coming due in 2023. We are currently evaluating a range of options, including a new mortgage, using our line of credit, obtaining a term loan, are using a combination of unsecured debt along with secured financing on other unencumbered assets. About 9% of our total debt aggregating $160 million is floating rate, of which 6% or 107 million is currently unhedged. We have minimal and very manageable maturities in 2024 and 2025, amounting to $144 million and $52 million respectively. As Jeff mentioned at the outset, we have issued guidance for 2022 and expect to continue issuing annual guidance in the future. For full year 2022, we expect FFO as adjusted to range from $1.17 per share to $1.19 per share. This range considers rents commencing from our signed but not open pipeline higher interest expense from our variable rate debt, and recoveries from amounts deemed uncollectible in prior periods. We have outlined our key assumptions related to our FFO guidance in our earnings release. We plan to provide guidance for 2023 when we report our full year results in early 2023. However, at this time, I'll note a few items that should be considered. Based on our mortgages maturing next year and the unhedged portion of variable rate debt, we expect interest expense on in-place debt will increase $10 to $11 million next year, considering the current SOFR curve. The ultimate increase will largely depend on the financing obtained for Burgantown Center. Looking at our receivables, we expect only minimal collections during 2023 on accounts previously deemed uncollectible, as we now believe that the bulk of collections we were estimating have been realized, including another $1 to $2 million, which we are expecting in the fourth quarter of this year. In terms of at-risk tenants, top of the list for us given their bankruptcy filing is Regal Theaters, where we have one location generating approximately $2 million in annual gross rent. Regal has not accepted or rejected the site yet, but we are proactively marketing the space given the uncertainty of their business. Regarding Bed Bath and Beyond, we learned that one location we have with an early 2023 expiration will not be renewed, and we are actively in the market talking to potential replacements. It is too early to mention new tenant names, but we feel good that we will be able to replace the approximate $1 million in gross rent Bed Bath generated at this property. In closing, We are grateful for the dedication and execution provided by the UE team again this quarter, and we look forward to meeting with many investors in two weeks at the NARIC conference in San Francisco. I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.
spk07: Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star and then two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. The first question we have is from Ronald Camdan from Morgan Stanley.
spk04: Hey, just a couple quick ones. Just going back to the comments on the 97% to 98% occupancy, may I just like to dig into that a little bit more? What gives you confidence in that? Is it the pipeline? Is it the activity? And what are you doing maybe differently with the leasing team to have conviction to get there?
spk03: I mean, historically, we have averaged in that range. So point one is we've been there before and have stabilized there before. Point two is that we do have a million square feet of leases under negotiation right now, and that's really what gets you there. And we feel good about where we are on executing many of those leases. And I should note that the rent spreads on the million square feet under negotiation are averaging about 20%.
spk04: Great. And then just on the earnings guidance, I obviously appreciate sort of providing that. Can you just talk a little bit about what the assumptions for bad debt is in that same store and why? How would you think about that? Thanks.
spk01: Yeah, sure, Ron. So as I said in my prepared remarks, the biggest wild card has been the amounts that we're receiving on prior uncollectible estimates and we think there'd be about a million or two million in that that will offset you know kind of the normalized expense level that you've seen so the key assumption that's implied in guidance is that will collect about a million to two million dollars on past due okay got it and then the last one if I could see you get in so just on on the GNA so the guidance for this year you know I see 40.6 to 41.6 million
spk04: And then you talked about just re-looking at the GNA. Can you just provide a little bit more color on that? I know there's been some management changes. Can you just dig into what are you guys thinking? What are you trying to take out?
spk03: When we provide guidance for 2023, we'll be more specific. But just in terms of the management changes that were made, there's probably a couple million dollars of GNA savings right there. Okay, that's great.
spk04: Thanks so much for the guidance again. Okay, thank you.
spk07: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one now. The next question we have is from Brian Stan from Evercore ISI.
spk05: Thanks. Jeff, I was wondering if there's any color you could provide just on conversations you're having with retailers. What your sense is of how they're viewing real estate expansion plans as we head into potential recession here?
spk03: Yeah, I mean, our conversations have led us to believe that they're still expanding at a rapid pace. Our goal is to get this million square feet of leases that are under negotiation signed. But so far, the tenants have not given us any indication that they are planning to slow down their expansion plans. When you look at our pipeline of the million square feet under negotiation, some of the names that are most notable would include TJ Maxx, Ross, Sephora, Lidl, Burlington, among others, not Bye Bye Baby. So we have Scott Oster here, who's our head of leasing. And Scott, maybe you can comment on it because you're more in the weeds on this than I am.
spk00: Yeah. Thanks, Jeff. The only thing I would add to that is we did have a full leasing team meeting earlier this week on Tuesday. And at the top of the meeting, we asked our agents whether they have lost any particular deal just because of the macro economic headwinds. And we've only lost one. And that was a restaurant deal where the operator lost their capital partner because they were getting a little bit worried about the economy. And that's across a pretty expansive and robust pipeline that we have in place right now. So that suggests really that the retailers haven't pulled back at all and that the demand is still there. And I'd say also the demand is across all different category and classification. It's anchors, it's shops, it's mom and pops, it's franchisees, it's national tenants. So from my vantage point, there's no discernible soft spot in the leasing environment right now.
spk03: Look, the consumer remains very strong today. And as long as the consumer is strong, I think retailers will continue to expand. I heard this great quote from a banker last week that I'll mention here. And he said, quote, Americans are watching the economic forecast for a thunderstorm, but seeing it's still sunny outside, they are headed out to surf the waves anyway. And that's the state of the consumer today. And let me be clear. I mean, we as a company are not surfing. We're preparing for a slowdown. We're prioritizing our balance sheet as we recently expanded and renewed our line of credit. And we're placing a high emphasis on getting these leases under negotiation executed.
spk05: Yeah, I guess just on the 1 million square foot pipeline, I think that's consistent with the number from last quarter. I guess what I'm trying to understand, are there any changes to the pipeline, like the composition? Are deals taking longer to get done? Just anything, any noticeable changes in the negotiations there?
spk03: Not right now. I mean, 80% of the tenants in the pipeline are national and regional operators. So I would say, I mean, and there are some ins and outs. The pipeline does change each quarter. I mean, you know, we move some of the pipeline as leases are executed into SNO, and some of the SNO pipeline gets removed as leases are delivered to tenants. But no material changes, and it's across a variety of retail categories.
spk05: Got it. Okay. Last one just on the transaction market. I mean, I realize deals are limited, but where do you think bidders are underwriting deals today, I guess, from an unlevered IRR perspective?
spk03: Yeah, I think some are underwriting unlevered returns close to the double digits. I'll call it 9% to 10%, which is implying cap rates are probably up 75% to 150 basis points. But to your point, There's such little activity taking place, and I think it's going to take some time for people to recognize either that there's a new environment that we're in, which has a higher cost of capital, or that cost of capital goes down because interest rates change.
spk05: All right.
spk09: Okay. Thanks very much. Okay. Thank you.
spk07: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one now. The next question we have is from Paulina Rojas from Green Street. Good morning.
spk06: Good morning. So blended releasing spreads were negative this quarter, and you explained how it was proven by one anchor renewal. So I get that this variable is very volatile, But taking a little more of a longer perspective, where do you see the mark-to-market of your portfolio? What should we expect for average blended releasing spreads in the interim, not just next quarter or necessarily the next, you know, let's think about maybe the next 12 to 24 months?
spk03: Yeah, I mean, when you blend it all together, I mean, you're probably somewhere in the 5% to 10% range, including option exercises, et cetera. But again, I would point to the million square feet of leases under negotiation, which are the ones that are most active at the moment, and the releasing spread there is 20%. Okay.
spk07: physical occupancy.
spk06: So it only climbed, I think, 10 basis points in the quarter, which, given how wide your lease but not open spread is, was a little surprising to me. And I know your portfolio is difficult in the sense that occupancy change doesn't necessarily correlate with base rent increases, but how do you think about the condense of physical occupancy going forward?
spk01: Yeah, it's a good question because I'll point out exactly to your question in terms of some of the nuances about our portfolio. We actually, as we look going forward, given that Kohl's, you know, Jeff mentioned the opening of Kohl's, we also have a shop right at Huntington opening in this fourth quarter. So we actually think you're going to see There's 150 basis points increase in physical occupancy from those, but the nuance is we have a vacant warehouse that we purchased intentionally vacant to lease that's going to enter the same property pool in the fourth quarter. So we're hard at work just about working on executing a lease, but even if that lease gets executed, it will come in with no physical occupancy in Q4. So the uplift, you'll see, Paulina, net-net is maybe about 30 to 40 basis points on a physical basis, even though there's 150 basis points of a real tailwind coming from the two anchors.
spk08: Got it. Thank you very much. Yep.
spk09: Great. Thank you, Paulina.
spk07: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just a final reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one now. I'll pause a moment to see if we have any further questions. At this stage, there seem to be no further questions. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Jeff Alton for closing comments.
spk03: Great. Thank you very much. We appreciate your interest in UE and look forward to seeing many of you in San Francisco.
spk08: Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that then concludes today's conference.
spk07: Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.
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