This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Greetings. Welcome to the Union Pacific third quarter 2020 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. The brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during today's conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded and the slides for today's presentation are available on Union Pacific's website. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Lance Fritz, Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific. Thank you, Mr. Fritz. You may now begin.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Union Pacific's third quarter earnings conference call. With me today in Omaha are Jim Venna, Chief Operating Officer, Kenny Rocker, Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales, and Jennifer Heyman, Chief Financial Officer. As I'm sure you all saw, on Tuesday we announced the transition that will take place in our operating department. Jim Venna will be transitioning his responsibilities over to Eric Geringer at the beginning of the year. while staying on until the end of June as a senior advisor. I'm excited to have Eric lead our operating department into the future. Eric has a track record of success at our company and will push the team to continue to think boldly as we pursue operational excellence. I want to express my deep appreciation to Jim for the leadership he brought to Union Pacific. Jim accomplished everything I could have hoped for and more. He brought a level of expertise and speed of decision-making that has been critical to our transformation. I'm very pleased that he's going to continue working closely with Eric and the rest of the team over the next several months to guide us through a smooth transition while seeing some key projects to completion. Thank you very much, Jim. Before discussing our third quarter results, I want to acknowledge the work of our dedicated employees. As we continue to operate our railroad through the pandemic, The women and men of Union Pacific are doing an excellent job keeping themselves and their families safe. As a result, they are able to provide our customers with a service product that is fluid and uninterrupted. Our rail network continues to operate at a very high level, reflecting the talent, commitment, and resilience of our Union Pacific team. Moving to third quarter results. This morning, Union Pacific is reporting 2020 third quarter net income of $1.4 billion or $2.01 per share. This compares to $1.6 billion or $2.22 per share in the third quarter of 2019. Our quarterly operating ratio came in at 58.7%, an all-time quarterly record and an 80 basis point improvement compared to the third quarter of 2019, despite moving 4% fewer carloads. Our third quarter results represent another step in our company's transformation. We demonstrated our ability to adjust to a sharp rebound in volume while continuing to provide a safe, efficient, and reliable service product to our customers. The results we are delivering, both operationally and financially, deepen our conviction that the changes we're making to transform our railroad are on track and on target. So with that, I'll turn it over to Jim to provide an operations update.
Jim Venna
Chief Operating Officer
Thanks, Lance, and good morning, everyone. We had an impressive quarter to turn in the results you see today. We have to watch our asset utilization closely as we dealt with a sharp volume increase following the equally sharp volume decline of the second quarter as we continue to navigate the pandemic. And we have had some significant weather events in this quarter as well. In the face of those challenges, the team delivered strong productivity gains to the tune of $205 million and a total of $610 million year to date. All in all, a very strong quarter for the entire operating team. Turning to slide four, I'd like to update you on our key performance indicators. Driven by the team's relentless focus on asset utilization and reducing car touches, freight car velocity and freight car terminal dwell both improved 3%. These improvements, along with increased train length, which we'll talk more about on the next slide, demonstrate how our operating model is striking the right balance between service and efficiency. We continue to adjust our transportation plan to run a more efficient network that requires fewer locomotives. In the third quarter, we achieved a quarterly record in locomotive productivity, an 11% improvement versus last year, which is all the more impressive when you consider the mixed challenge of trading coal and sand volumes for intermodal volumes. Workforce productivity, also a quarterly record, improved 13% from third quarter 2019. Productivity improvements were led by the train and engine workforce, down 22% versus last year, which significantly outpaced the 4% volume decline. Our manifest service remained strong during the quarter, driving a five-point improvement in trip plan compliance for manifest and autos. Intermodal trip plan compliance decreased in the quarter, reflecting the impact seen across the entire intermodal supply chain from the sharp West Coast volume increase. Although we positioned equipment near the LA basin in anticipation of a surge, The resulting imbalances following the first wave of the freight as well as the sharp uptake and demand for both T and Y and terminal employees took a few weeks to work through the network. But the team responded quickly with resources and transportation plan changes, enabling us to exit the quarter with intermodal trip plan compliance back in the low to mid 80s. Our results have been strong this year and we expect to see continued improvement in the fourth quarter. Slide five highlights some of our recent network changes. Our focus on increasing train length and handling traffic efficiently remains strong. We were able to absorb the majority of the sequential volume increased by adding traffic to our existing train network. Compared to the fourth quarter, 2018, when we first began implementing our version of precision scheduled railroading, we have increased train length across our system by 28% or 1,950 feet to approximately 9,000 feet in the third quarter of 2020. We've completed 28 15,000-foot sidings through the third quarter, allowing longer trains to run in both directions and reduced the number of train starts. We plan to have another eight sidings completed by the end of 2020. We recently curtailed operations at the East Hump in our North Platte, Nebraska yard. This location was unique in that it previously had two humps. Going forward, the cars will either be processed at the still active West Hump or flat-switched. The redesign of our operations in Chicago and Houston remains on track. Chicago intermodal consolidation is set to be complete by year end. We are also making progress in Houston to consolidate our intermodal facilities into one location to expand switching capability and improve our ability to run longer trains out of the Englewood yard. Finally, we continue to make organizational changes to better align resources and responsibilities. During the quarter, we took an additional workforce reduction in the operating department and also integrated intermodal operations into the transportation department. We will continue to seek efficiency in all facets of what we do, and there remain many more opportunities ahead of us. To wrap up, we remain committed to protecting our employees' health and safety and providing strong service to our customers. We will continue to make structural changes to improve operational performance and efficiency. The changes we're making... Chicago and Houston will drive continued improvements in our intermodal service product, allowing us to be more competitive in those markets. We have made great progress in transforming our operations to this point. Our focus is unwavering as we will continue to improve safety, service, asset utilization, and network efficiency in order to provide customers with a service product that is competitive and provides value. Before I turn it over to Kenny, I want to make a few comments on Tuesday's announcement. I'm very proud of what we've accomplished during my time at Union Pacific. Really, the results speak for themselves. We've got the leadership team and culture in a great place to continue to flourish, and Eric is the right person to lead the team. He's a very talented railroader and brings a great skill set to the position. I know he'll continue to challenge the team to be relentless in their pursuit of efficiency. I'm going to stick around for a bit longer to make sure the transition is smooth and some key projects are completed. I'm very confident that this team won't back off on the progress we're making to produce an industry-best product for our customers. With that, I'll turn it over to Kenny to provide an update on the business environment.
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
Thank you, Jim, and good morning. For the third quarter, our volume was down 4%, primarily due to declines in our industrial and bulk business groups. The decrease in volume, coupled with a 7% decline in average revenue per car, drove freight revenue to be down 11%. In the quarter, weak economic conditions related to the pandemic continued to impact multiple market segments, but it was partially offset by stronger demand in the premium group. So let's take a closer look at how the third quarter performed for each of our business groups. Starting with bulk, revenue for the quarter was down 12% on a 9% decrease in volume and a 3% decrease in average revenue per car. Coal and renewable car loads were down 21% as a result of weaker market conditions from low natural gas prices and soft export demand. Volume for grain and grain products was up 3% from an increased demand of export grain, partially offset by pandemic-reduced demand for ethanol. Fertilized and sulfur car loads were up 4% due to the stronger export potash, slightly offset by lower production of phosphate rock. Finally, food and refrigerated volume was flat, and strong beverage shipments were offset by softer food service and restaurant demand. Moving on to industrial, industrial revenues declined 18% from a 16% decrease in volume. Average revenue per car also declined 2% due to a lower fuel surcharge and negative mix. Energy and specialized shipments decreased 20%, primarily driven by reduced petroleum shipments due to low oil prices coupled with weak demand. Forest products volume was flat. Growth in lumber shipments from improved housing starts and repair and remodels offset declines in paper shipments. Industrial chemicals and plastic shipments declined by 9% due to the pandemic-related impacts on both global and domestic demand. Industrial chemicals volume has the largest reductions as these car loads are closely tied to industrial production. Metals and minerals volumes decreased by 22% due to reduced sand shipments associated with the decline in oil prices and a surplus in local sand. Rock shipments were also reduced due to the pandemic-related impacts on demand and project delays. Turning now to premium, Revenue for the quarter was down 1% on a 5% increase in volume. Average revenue per car declined by 6%, reflecting a lower mix from increased intermodal shipments. Automotive volume was down 9% for the quarter. At the beginning of the quarter, most North American manufacturing plants had resumed production, but our run rates were about 15% below 2019. Production volumes steadily increased throughout the third quarter as dealers restocked inventories. Intermodal volume decreased by 9% year-over-year, driven by strength in domestic truckloads and parcel shipments, as well as onboarding new international business. Despite the pandemic, sales for most retailers increased throughout the quarter. And not only did we see the footprint of e-commerce sales of total U.S. retail sales grow, year over year, but more importantly, we saw our volume increase as a result of key business wins. As we enter the fourth quarter, you can see on slide 11 that our overall volume is currently up 4% year over year. Based on these run rates, we'd expect year over year fourth quarter volumes to be up low single digits. We expect premium volumes to remain strong, similar to current run rates for the remainder of the year. Strength in e-commerce is likely to continue and volumes will be bolstered by inventory restocking as we enter peak holiday shopping season coupled with recent business development wins. For bulk, the coal market remains challenged as high inventory and weather conditions continue to be factors. However, we have a positive outlook for export grain due to China's continued purchases. Additionally, We expect to see continued strength in beer shipments, and we could see modest growth in our food and refrigerated line if food service and restaurant demand improve. And lastly, for industrial, the potential for crude by rail remains largely uncertain. If oil prices remain depressed, then we anticipate continued year-over-year declines. But on a positive note, we are anticipating slow sequential quarterly improvements for most of our other markets. The outlook for Housing Star has remained positive, and our improved service product is opening up new markets for us, like some short-haul business that wouldn't have been so attractive to us in the past. This is just one example of how we're staying focused on things we can control. The team has done a fabulous job executing on our marketing initiatives to win new business. And, as Jim stated earlier, our service product continues to improve, which helps our customers compete in the marketplace. With that, I'll turn it over to Jennifer, who's going to talk about our financial performance.
Jennifer Heyman
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Kenny, and good morning. As you heard from Lance earlier, Union Pacific is reporting third-quarter earnings per share of $2.01 and a quarterly operating ratio of 58.7%, an all-time quarterly record and our first sub-59 quarter. Looking at our quarterly income statement, operating revenue totaled $4.9 billion, down 11% versus last year on a 4% year-over-year volume decline. Demonstrating our consistent ability to adjust costs with volume, operating expense decreased 12% to $2.9 billion. Taken together, we are reporting third quarter operating income of $2 billion, a 9% decrease versus 2019. Other income of $37 million was down $16 million versus last year as a result of lower interest income as well as less rental income. Interest expense increased 11% due to increased debt levels and costs associated with our recent debt exchange. Income tax expense was lower, down 12% as a result of lower pre-tax quarterly income. Net income of $1.4 billion declined 12% versus last year, which combined with share repurchases led to a 9% decrease in earnings per share to $2.01. As I just mentioned, our 58.7% operating ratio was 80 basis points better year over year. Lower fuel prices had 100 basis point positive impact on the operating ratio, while fuel surcharge lag negatively impacted earnings per share by 3 cents. Turning now to slide 14, which provides a breakdown of our freight revenue. totaling $4.6 billion, down 11% versus 2019. The primary contributor to the year-over-year decline was a 4% decrease in car loadings, a substantial improvement from the second quarter, but still in negative territory. Lower diesel fuel prices, down 35% year-over-year, impacted revenue by 3.5 points. Positive core pricing gains were more than offset by our business mix, reducing revenue 3.25 points. Although we continue to yield pricing dollars in excess of inflation, revenues were impacted by moving more business at a lower average revenue per car, something we commonly refer to as negative mix. A 9% increase in intermodal combined with industrial volume declines, which included the continued fall-off in sand and crude car loads, were strong contributors to that negative mix. Now let's move on to slide 15, which provides a summary of our third quarter operating expenses. As you heard Jim discuss, we did a great job operationally in the quarter, adjusting to that sharp rebound in traffic, and at the same time, were very effective controlling costs. If you look at the individual expense lines, comp and benefits expense decreased 11% year over year as we offset wage inflation and higher severance costs through lower force counts. Third quarter workforce levels declined 18%, or about 6,500 full-time equivalents versus last year. while sequentially increasing by fewer than 100. Our train and engine workforce continues to be more than volume variable, down 22%, while management, engineering, and mechanical workforces together decreased 14%, with a portion of those reductions related to fewer capital employees. Quarterly fuel expense decreased 40% as a result of the significantly lower diesel fuel prices and lower volumes. Third quarter consumption rate increased slightly versus 2019, reflecting the mixed impact of running fewer heavy haul bulk shipments. Purchase services and materials expense declined 11% in the quarter as we continue to use our locomotive fleet more productively. In addition, our loop subsidiary incurred less drayage expense versus last year with fewer auto shipments. Equipment and other rents fell 8% in the quarter, despite mixed pressure in this category related to increased intermodal shipments. However, freight car and locomotive productivity efforts more than offset that headwind, driving car hire savings and lower lease expense. Other expense was our only cost category that increased year over year, up 8% in the quarter, driven by $17 million of higher state and local taxes. We still expect this cost category to be up around 5% on a full year basis, in line with prior guidance. Looking now at productivity, as discussed during our second quarter call, The game plan was to leverage sequential volumes against our smaller cost structure while maintaining a high level of service. And based on our results, I'd say we did just that. We continued our trend of generating strong net productivity, with the third quarter coming in at $205 million. The operating department's continued progress on train-length initiatives, balanced with an improved service product, and more efficient use of our workforce and locomotives led those productivity gains. In addition, all areas of the company continue to control spending as well as look for ways to do more with less. Our year-to-date net productivity of $610 million already exceeds both our expectations for 2020 as well as the impressive $590 million of net productivity we achieved for the full year 2019. As we look to the fourth quarter, understanding that we do have a difficult comparison against last year's fourth quarter, We now expect full-year 2020 net productivity to exceed $700 million, or $1.3 billion, over the last two years. This strong productivity is evident in our record quarterly operating ratio of 58.7%. Using the same barometer as past quarters for evaluating cost variability, year-over-year third-quarter expenses were 180% volume variable on a fuel-adjusted basis. Sequentially, as third quarter volumes increased 19% from the second quarter, fuel-adjusted operating expenses only increased 11%. Moving on to cash and liquidity, throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Union Pacific has been in a position of strength with our cash generation, liquidity, and balance sheet. Year-to-date cash from operations decreased only 4% versus 2019 to $6 billion, despite a 12% decrease in net income. Free cash flow after capital investments totaled nearly $3.7 billion, resulting in a 93% cash conversion rate. After payment of our industry-leading quarterly dividend, cash on hand at the end of the third quarter was $2.6 billion. As volumes have remained relatively steady in the 160,000 seven-day carloading range, we are moving to redeploy some of that cash. We resumed share repurchases in early October, and announced our plans for a $500 million par call on debt due in early 2021. We also plan to pay off an additional $300 million of incremental debt we assumed earlier this year for added liquidity. From a balance sheet perspective, we finished the quarter at an adjusted debt-to-ebitda ratio of 2.9 times as we continue to maintain strong investment-grade credit ratings from both Standard & Poor's and Moody's. As we've said before, navigating through this pandemic has reinforced our conviction that maintaining a solid investment-grade credit rating is critical and is an essential element to our commitment to provide strong cash returns to our owners, which totals nearly $5 billion at the end of September. Turning now to our outlook, you heard Kenny talk about the positive drivers we see in the marketplace and our expectation that fourth quarter volumes will be our first quarter with positive year-over-year growth in two years. Given this improved outlook, we now expect full-year volumes to be down 7% or so. As I pointed out earlier, we expect productivity to exceed $700 million for the full year 2020, and our long-standing pricing guidance is unchanged. We expect the total dollars generated from our pricing actions to exceed rail inflation costs. We are committed to making sure each piece of business we move is earning an adequate return and that we are being compensated for the value we are delivering in the marketplace. Our expectations for volume, price, and productivity should produce a record 2020 operating ratio. In fact, we now expect the full year 2020 operating ratio to improve by roughly a point and start with a five. While the course we've charted in 2020 is certainly much different than expected when we laid out our original targets, Being able to achieve a sub-60 operating ratio in the heart of a pandemic is an impressive accomplishment for the entire Union Pacific team. In terms of cash generation and capital allocation, full-year capital expenditures are still projected to come in around $2.9 billion as we make good progress on our renewal and productivity investments. We will continue providing strong cash returns to our owners through our dividend and share repurchases. And longer term, capital expenditures remain stable projected to be below 15% of revenue, a dividend payout ratio of 40% to 45% of earnings, and ultimately achieving that 55% operating ratio remain the vision and objectives for our company. Wrapping up, I'd like to express my appreciation to our exceptional employees. The job they've done this year to work safely, stay nimble, and provide a quality service product for our customers while also improving productivity is truly remarkable. our goal of operating the safest, most efficient, and most reliable railroad in North America is clearly achievable, knowing we have the best people in the business. With that, I'll turn it back to Lance.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Thank you, Jennifer. Our first priority has been and will always be safety. We have a continuous focus on improvement, and I'm confident the team has the right plan and is taking the right actions to make Union Pacific a safer railroad going forward. Our service and financial results demonstrate the transformation of our company. We are a more efficient and a more reliable railroad that is driving value for our customers on the way to achieving operational excellence. Our enhanced service product, coupled with a lower cost structure and innovative new services, is opening up new markets and opportunities with our customers. And as you heard from Kenny today, the team is winning. By converting more business to rail, our customers are reducing their carbon footprint, to the tune of an estimated 16 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions so far this year as we move together toward a more sustainable future. Our optimism for the future has never been greater as Union Pacific is well positioned for a future of long-term growth and excellent returns. So with that, let's open up the line for your questions.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, Please press star 1 on your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. In the interest of time, and so that we can accommodate as many analysts as possible, we would ask everyone to please limit themselves to one question. Thank you, and our first question is from the line of Ken Hexter with Bank of America.
Ken Hexter
Bank of America
Great. Good morning. And, Jim, great job the last few years, and good luck in the future. Maybe for Lance or Jim, I guess, just starting off, you know, keeping your employees down 18% with volumes accelerating, a great job in the quarter and a great job in the OR. But you saw some intermodal struggles, as you mentioned. Maybe you could talk a little bit about the incremental changes. margins going forward and your thought on the pace of expense returns as you move into 21, just given Jen just talked about the kind of inflection into positive volumes for the first time in a while. Thanks.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Jen, you want to talk about the expense side, and then we'll convert it to the go-forward margins.
Jim Venna
Chief Operating Officer
Okay. So thanks, Ken. I appreciate the the question and thanks for saying a good two years, not quite two years, but we got a little bit of work left to do. So I'm looking forward to the next few months to really get this place going even better. So on the intermodal and the expense side, I think we showed in the quarter how we can handle the business and be smart about how we handle the business. It is, if we need to win, we need to be able to look at things on a full supply chain view And that's what we did. And everybody knew that you cannot easily react without really disrupting the entire network when it comes to the intermodal volume that increased substantially. But I think the speed that we reacted and where our metrics are after was a great move. The expense will continue on a unit basis to be less purely because of the capital investments we've made in the network. and the efficiency. We turn our locomotives way quicker. We turn our crews quicker. We turn our cars quicker. We handle the inspections quicker. We do so many things faster that we'll continue to build on that. So I don't see it. Whatever business comes on, I think we still will be able to improve our efficiency across the board.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Yeah, building off that, Ken, from an incremental margin or go-forward margin perspective, of course we continue to expect that we're going to improve our margins, the capital investments that Jim just outlined are going to be a support. And we're also looking with Kenny's team at an end-to-end view of our intermodal product, whether it's international intermodal or domestic intermodal. And those both give us an opportunity to margin up, whether it's by efficiency in the chain or an opportunity for better pricing.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thanks, Lance. Thanks, Jim.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Yep, thanks again.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question is from the line of Justin Long with Stevens. Please proceed with your question.
Justin Long
Stevens
Thanks, and good morning. Jim, I'll echo the congrats and wanted to ask about the announced transition. I think a lot of investors are wondering if this means the heavy lifting on PSR and productivity gains is complete. So could you just address that? Do you disagree with that view? And if so, can you talk about why now is the right time to make this transition versus sticking around for another year or two?
Jim Venna
Chief Operating Officer
Okay. Well, listen, I appreciate the question. So let me take it back to when I came on at Union Pacific. Lance and I sat down, and we talked about what we needed to do and how I could help the team and partners at UP to drive the productivity that they already had in mind. It wasn't – I think everybody at Union Pacific realized that, listen, there's an opportunity to become more efficient and be able to have a great service product and win in the marketplace. So those goals were there. And I was really – it was refreshing to hear Lance and Rob, who were all in the same room together, talk about how we wanted to become the leader in the industry in when it came to efficiency, operational efficiency and service excellence. So you build on that. I committed when I came on to 18 to 24 months. I could have stayed longer. I could have stayed shorter. There was nothing that was tying me in to the company. But my job was to build the foundation of an operational group that understood what was possible and what we could deliver. And I think that's what I've done. And I'm very comfortable that Eric is the right person to lead. Let's just put this right down to, is he Jim Benna? No, he's not Jim Benna. And I'm not, if you compare me to some of the other people that have led companies operationally, I'm not the same person. I think we've done a great job of not causing a lot of pain to our customers. In other situations, people have done that. So we've been measured. Eric's the right guy. He's got the right background. He's got the right skill level. I like the way his mind works. He sees things quick. So I'm very confident that we've got the right. But below that, and, you know, I'm disappointed in that because of COVID, we could not get everybody in to see our team operationally, whether it's Tom in the north or David Giannotto in the south or John Turner, very bright person, okay? or it's Hunt Carey, we've got a team of railroaders, and as you all know, I've been railroading for a while, that I'm very confident they understand what we're doing and they will deliver. Now, I'm going to be around, and I'll be honest, if they make a slip-up, I don't care whether I'm gone or not, I will be phoning them, okay, and asking them what the heck they're doing, and I'll keep the heat on it. The worst thing we can do, and the true measure of a leader is that when you depart, the team understands what's supposed to happen, and you go out there and deliver. Two more points on that. One is I've spent a lot of time with people at different levels in the company, and I've spent probably 20 days in the last three months putting on sessions with frontline supervisors to try to drive the decision-making, have the right culture. And I'll continue to do that until the end of the year and some into the new year. So I'm very confident that we've got the right team. And let me answer that last piece. What's left? Well, locomotives are going to be way more productive. Our train length, I see 10,000 feet, okay? I see our car freight velocity up another 5% or 10%. So I think that we are just starting. The mechanisms, the measures, the culture is all there to succeed. I am not worried about it, and I am going to keep my Union Pacific stock. I'm not going to go out there and sell it because I'm very confident that we're going to do the right thing. So Justin, I hope, long answer, and I apologize, but I just wanted to make sure I put it all on the table.
Justin Long
Stevens
That's very helpful. Very, very helpful insights. I appreciate the time. Thanks, Justin.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from the line of Brian Ossabek with J.P. Morgan. Pleased to see you with your question.
Brian Ossabek
J.P. Morgan
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Jim, congratulations on the last, I guess, sub-two years. Maybe one more for you. before you head out into the new role and keeping an eye on things from afar. Look at all the buckets of productivity and the success you've had, including this quarter. It is slowing down a little bit, but one area where we haven't seen as much improvement is really on On fuel economy, you've got record train lengths that are going up. You've got locomotive productivity that's at all-time high, newer fleet. So I know mix is an issue, grade and topography is an issue, but some of your peers have been able to move the needle a bit more on that front, and we haven't quite seen that yet from UP. In fact, going up a little bit in terms of consumption this quarter. So maybe it can help. conceptualize or even quantify what that opportunity looks like and if that's one of the big buckets you see left for the team as you step more into an advisory role. Thank you.
Jim Venna
Chief Operating Officer
So let me answer it backwards. Yes, it's a bucket that we see and it is a substantial bucket on an expense side that we think that we've got the right plan in. The number you see, if you peel back the mix issue, This last quarter, we had over 4% improvement in our fuel use on a GTM basis, if you look underneath. Now, that's masked with the change in the type of trains that we're running and the volume, but I'm very comfortable that we have the right process in place to continue to drop. I don't think we're going to get 4% every quarter, but The best way to look at it is if we put more on the same number of trains with the same number of locomotives that we had before, and that's what we're doing on an average number of horsepower per train, and we're able to build the trains to what our capacity is, we will continue to see that fuel productivity number improve. Are we going to be the best in the industry? No. There's some advantages for railroad. Railroad I used to work at, their mainline grade is about a half of ours. So we're going to burn a little more fuel to get over some of those mountains getting out to the west coast. But at the end of the day, we have a lot of advantages on how we can turn and use the fuel. And we've spent money on technology, continue to so that the locomotives and the locomotive engineers are better at understanding how they operate. And I see us continuing to get that. The mixed turns continue. You know, Eric's probably going to get maybe a mixed turn down the road, and everybody will say he's brilliant on saving fuel. So I'm very comfortable.
Brian Ossabek
J.P. Morgan
That's nice of you to leave that for him.
Jim Venna
Chief Operating Officer
All right. Thanks, Jim. You're welcome.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question is from the line of Allison Landry with Credit Suisse. Please receive your question.
Allison Landry
Credit Suisse
Thanks. Good morning. So just – Thinking about the fact that volumes are recovering in addition to the higher productivity gains that you're now looking for this year, just as you think forward, would you expect to see a step function improvement in the OR in 2021 as volumes allow you to more fully realize the benefits of PSR? So maybe just some thoughts on that. I can appreciate you're not giving next year's guidance, but also if you could quickly address – you know, at what point do you think you can achieve the $55? Thank you.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Yeah, I'll start and ask Jennifer to back me up. Allison, this is Lance, and good morning. So the moving parts as we look into next year, we do expect volumes to be better, of course. It won't be hard to do that against a pandemic, and it's hard for us to gauge exactly how much better, but that'll be a help. Productivity is going to continue. That'll be a help. We haven't We haven't nailed down that target, but it's going to be healthy. And we've got plenty of initiatives moving into next year that we'll keep a shoulder into. Mix is a real big question mark. I don't see much reason to change our current mix experience until the industrial economy really starts recovering a little bit quicker and with more strength than we've seen so far. post our trough in May. So that's the biggest question mark, I think, that will dictate just how much margin improvement we are able to attain next year. Jennifer?
Jennifer Heyman
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Allison, thanks for the question. You know, you've heard us say many times, you know, the drivers of our performance are what Lance just laid out. It's volume, productivity, and then the price piece. So, you know, we're encouraged by what you're seeing in the truck markets today and with the service product that we've got out there and all the work that Kenny and his team are doing. But we're still working through our plans for 2021. But we have every expectation that we've got a great roadmap ahead of us where we can continue to improve. We'll give you obviously more detail around that when we talk to you in January. And our hope is, you know, sometime next year to be able to gather everyone as we were hoping to do in the fall of this year. and with a little more certainty on what's going on with the economy and the pandemic, be able to lay out for you guys kind of a multi-year plan that we see for ourselves and how we look to continue to make improvement and go to the 55 OR.
Allison Landry
Credit Suisse
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. Yep. Thanks.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Next question is from the line of Jason Seidel with Cowan & Company. Please proceed with your question.
Jason Seidel
Cowan & Company
Thank you, Robert. Good morning, Lance and team, and Gene, congratulations on the retirement 2.0 there. I'm still looking. I want to concentrate everyone a little bit on mix on intermodal because clearly the surge to the West Coast has been somewhat aided by restocking efforts that are likely to continue at least in the near future. But at some point that will abate. So how should we think about the mix between international business and and more domestic business for 2021 and the impacts on the ARC?
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
Denny? Yeah, so thanks for that question, Jason. First of all, I'll just say that controlling what we can control, we're going to go out there and win as much business as we can in all those markets. And this year we've been able to do that. We've been able to grow our e-commerce business. We've got a great service product that Jim and the team has provided us. On the international side, we talked about an international win. And even on our domestic truckload side, we've been able to go out there and win the business. We have seen a little bit more of our international business transloaded into some of the West Coast ports. That just means that we have to compete on the domestic side, which I've said we've been able to do. So regardless of how that product comes in, We've inserted a lot of technology with our customers to go out and win business, whether it's APIs that see the business coming from Asia, whether it's our ITR business to give great visibility to our customers on when their business will move. We feel like we've got a really strong domestic product to go out there and compete, and we've also won quite a bit on the international side.
Jason Seidel
Cowan & Company
Right, but Kenny, what is it? If it does slow down, should we expect a change in the arc for 2021 on the restocking side?
Jennifer Heyman
Chief Financial Officer
What specifically slows down, Jason?
Jason Seidel
Cowan & Company
The restocking efforts that we've seen and all the massive surge that West Coast ports lately.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Yes, so Jason, this is Lance. I get what you're asking. So part of what we're seeing in domestic strength, is a restocking because we can see that in the data as well, right? Inventory is relatively down, sales are up, and the inventory sales ratio is below where I think retailers traditionally would like it to be. So as we look into next year, some amount of that destocking probably drops off a bit. It's hard to say just exactly what happens in impact on mix and overall arc as that's occurring. One thing that is likely to occur as we go into next year would be the surcharges dropping off in the LA basin and up in the PNW, but those are really asterisks right now in terms of the overall yield that we're reporting. They're helpful, but very marginal.
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
The only thing I'll add to that is if you look at the data, the retail sales have actually improved sequentially, so there is a poor element to the demand. And the inventories, as they sit today, they're lower than they were in 2019, so they're still lower inventory. And then, you know, you think about that e-commerce business. I believe that there is a structural change out there with the consumer preference that there's going to be more e-commerce there that fits very nicely with our service product.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
And that parcel business is very attractive to us.
Jennifer Heyman
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I mean, we're just starting to get into the bid season for next year, Jason, and I think maybe that's part of your question, too, in terms of, you know, if that truck market stays tight, we think that's a great opportunity for us, particularly with the service product that we've got to offer right now.
Jason Seidel
Cowan & Company
Okay. Well, listen, fantastic. I appreciate the time, as always, everyone. Yep. Thank you, Jason. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question is from the line of Brandon Igleski with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Brandon Igleski
Barclays
Hey, good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking my question. Lance, I guess, you know, in response to a previous question about intermodal, you know, you said, well, we're going to look to margin up in the future. But it's interesting here because if I look north of the border, you know, since you guys peaked on volumes, you know, going back more than a decade, We've seen greater than, like, 80% expansion in intermodal volume on the Canadian networks, or at least one of your competitors. It's been roughly flat for you guys over that same time period. And I know you've gone through a lot of mix shift in the network, but, you know, what can you tell your investors? Is the strategy here to continue to focus on margin above growth? Or, you know, I keep hearing you guys talk about a service product that's competitive. Is now the time to focus a lot more on top line? And, you know, what strategies can you take? Can you be more proactive with the ports? Because we've definitely seen a shift from U.S. West Coast up north to Canada.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Yeah, Brandon, thank you. And that's a great series of questions. So the fundamental difference today versus 10 years ago is our service product is much, much better. It's much more reliable. We're actually doing what we say we're going to do. And we can see that very clearly in our KPIs when we break out the premium, the intermodal and automotive car trip plan compliance. And over 10 years, that metric has actually gotten harder to achieve. So we're measuring ourselves through a harder metric, and it's much higher in terms of absolute performance. Customers experience that. So item number one is we're positioned to be able to win business. Item number two is we are not monolithic in terms of our focus. We want to grow. We know that growth, volume, is going to be a really important lever as we continue to improve our operating ratio going forward. And so is price, and so is efficiency. And we think we can achieve all at the same time. And item number three, Brandon – A little bit of a proof statement that has been completely masked by the pandemic and its impact on the economy is in the last bid cycle, in the last bid season, we were successful at winning business. We increased our penetration through the BCO cycle on their bid season. And Kenny mentioned one. We increased our exposure in the parcel world, and we've done it across a number of other retailers. So as we look forward, Brandon, you've got it exactly right. We are positioned to be able to grow, and we're holding ourselves accountable for greater growth than we've experienced in the last 10 years. We should be able to achieve that.
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
The only thing I'll add to that also is that the team has done a great job of inserting product into our supply chain. So whether it's matchbacks in Dallas, whether it's reloads out of the Midwest, we're doing everything we can to make it sticky for our customers We've worked with the ports to get some really strong standards to get out of the ports, working with Jim's team. I talked about the technology on the API side where we're working with our largest international carriers so that we can have visibility to when they come in and instill confidence and trust in our service. So we're taking an active, very proactive approach to winning in those markets.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thank you.
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
Yep, thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolf Research. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Group
Wolf Research
Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. So, Jennifer, comp for employee was up 8%. I think you mentioned some severance. Can you quantify that and just give us some color on how to think about comp for employee going forward just because it was a bunch higher than we thought? And then can I just get one clarification? Lance, you made a comment about intermodal and end-to-end. I'm not sure what that means and maybe what that should mean for the IMC relationship. Thank you.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Sure. I'll take that after Jennifer.
Jennifer Heyman
Chief Financial Officer
Sir, on the comp per employee side, Scott, you're right. I mentioned, you know, we have wage inflation. That certainly was part of it. We did have severance. I'm not going to quantify that, but that is something that we don't expect to see in the fourth quarter. Jim mentioned some further headcount reductions that were made on the operating side of the world, so there was some severance involved with that. We also did have some higher costs per crew in the quarter. When you think about some of our weather challenges and the fact that we are staying quite lean from a headcount perspective, and so we're working the crews a little bit harder, so a little bit higher overtime costs there. Going into the fourth quarter, we're going to still stay pretty lean. As you still, you know, there's a little uncertainty around the economy. You've got the holiday season coming up, so I would expect us, we're going to keep that crew base pretty lean, so you may see some elevated costs. Cost per crew, you're going to continue to have the wage inflation in 4Q, but you will not have the severance on a sequential basis.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Yeah, and Scott, your question on what did I mean by end-to-end in the domestic intermodal world, that's not an announcement of us going retail, so let me be crystal clear about that. But it is an indication and a recognition that, The service product that wins in the marketplace looks transparent to a customer from end to end and needs to be simplified and much easier to deal with. And we are working with our IMCs and our significant IMC partners to make that happen. And that needs to look like one point of contact, you know, consistency across the entire supply chain. And there's just a whole lot of work that's going into that that I wanted to make sure wasn't lost in this call.
Ravi Shankar
Morgan Stanley
Thank you. Yep.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question is from the line of Chris Weatherby with Citigroup.
Chris Weatherby
Citigroup
Hey, thanks. Good morning. And, Congress, Jim, great job on the two years at the firm. I guess – I wanted to ask a question about sort of capital returns to shareholders. I know there's going to be some focus on debt pay down in the fourth quarter. I'm kind of curious, Jennifer, how you think about that impacting potential buybacks maybe in the nearer term than sort of bigger picture. Do you think that there's an opportunity to kind of push a little harder on the buybacks as you go into next year and sort of cash flow comes up with earnings power? Just some thoughts around that would be helpful.
Jennifer Heyman
Chief Financial Officer
Sure, Chris. Thanks. You know, in terms of fourth quarter, you know, we came in or ended the quarter, I should say, you know, cash balance of $2.6 billion. That's, you know, we've typically, you know, ran closer to a billion, a billion and a half in terms of cash balances. We've obviously been more conservative with that over the last couple quarters with the pandemic and uncertainty. Things feel like they're evening out a little bit, although, you know, you see the same news I do where cases are surging in different parts of the country. And so, you know, We're going to be careful with that, but we think fourth quarter is a good time for us to start redeploying some of that cash with interest rates being as low as they are. It's doing very little for us sitting in the bank right now. So we want to put some of that back to work. We're doing that through shares as well as paying off some debt that has a little bit higher coupon, a little higher cost for us. So we think that's the right economic thing to do. And as we look into 2021, again, in January, we'll talk more fulsomely about what our plans are, not just for how we see the year playing out, but how we're going to deploy cash. But we think certainly our job is twofold. It's generate the cash through business and efficiency and then deploy it back to our shareholders. I think we've got a good track record of doing that and rewarding our shareholders, and we plan to continue that.
Chris Weatherby
Citigroup
Got it. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question is from the line of Amit Rahatra with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Amit Rahatra
Deutsche Bank
Thanks, operator. Good morning, everybody. Jim, congrats on another successful tenure. I think you have the respect of everybody on this conference call. Just a quick question. Is there anything, you know, limiting you from joining another railroad relatively quickly? And would you be open to that when you do leave UNP if you could address that? And then, you know, Lance and Jennifer, We've been talking about the potential for incremental margins for a long time now in terms of how good they could be when the revenue growth turns positive. I just don't think we saw it to the extent that we would have in the third quarter, especially when you look at the sequential movements in non-fuel expenses. It was obviously a very challenging quarter from a congestion perspective, which may have something to do with it. So I was hoping you could just answer one. did the quarter kind of meet your expectations around flow through from the sequential revenue growth and then to any costs that are worth maybe calling out that are specific to the congestion that we all know about that occurred on the West Coast? Thank you.
Jim Venna
Chief Operating Officer
You want to start?
Jennifer Heyman
Chief Financial Officer
I think I want you to start and then we'll go.
Jim Venna
Chief Operating Officer
Mitch, you're pretty good. Thank you very much. And you slipped about five questions in there. That was pretty good. I love it. So you got it written down, Jennifer.
Jim Venna
Chief Operating Officer
I think so.
Jim Venna
Chief Operating Officer
Listen, I'm 62 years old. I feel great. I'm not looking further than what I have the responsibility right now going forward. But all I'll tell you is, listen, we're going to elect a president that's either 74 or 78. So I'm still a young guy. And I'll leave it at that.
Jennifer Heyman
Chief Financial Officer
And in terms of the margins, you know, we did still have volumes down 4% in the quarter. And as I look at it, you know, going from 2Q to 3Q, you know, I would say that our margins improve sequentially, you know, incrementally in the 60% kind of range. So I think that shows you there's power in the model. And as we look and see volumes go positive, I think that's, you know, that's the thing to focus on and the fact with that we think we'll be able to have very strong incrementals. Were there some cost headwinds in the quarter? You know, there always are. We called out the ones that we thought were most important. You know, there was some severance costs. You know, you've got a little bit associated with some of the mixed impact. As Lance has said, you know, that mixed impact probably isn't going to change too much, but we're doing everything we can to improve the fluidity of the network, improve how efficiently we handle that business, and that's our real opportunity. So, I'd say less in terms of, you know, big challenges, more in terms of we see continued opportunity.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Yeah. Amit, this is Lance. So we're not disappointed at all with our incremental margins in the quarter, and we also think there's continued opportunity to be even better than that.
Amit Rahatra
Deutsche Bank
All right. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Yep.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Ravi Shankar with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Ravi Shankar
Morgan Stanley
Thanks, Moni, everyone. I have a three-part question but on one topic, so I guess that counts as one question. I know we've discussed intramodal a fair bit, but just a couple more follow-ups there. First, can you just give us some color on how your customers are kind of taking what's happening right now? I mean, clearly a lot of it is unprecedented, but at the same time, Are they upset about the surcharges and the service issues, or are they understanding? Second, if you do get higher volumes once this normalizes but offset by adding more resources and fewer surcharges, what does that mean for the profitability of the intramodal business heading into next year? And third, I'm not sure if you actually said this or not, but what is the timeline for resolution for the network issues?
Jennifer Heyman
Chief Financial Officer
What was that last part, Ravi? You dropped off a little bit.
Ravi Shankar
Morgan Stanley
What is the timeline for resolution for the network issues on the intermodal side? I'm not sure if you actually quantified that.
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
I'll start that off, Jim. You jump in if you've got any questions. When we walked into the third quarter, the entire supply chain was constrained. It's not a rail issue. You've got the terminals. You've got the port. You've got the dray carriers. Everyone was constrained. What we did immediately was got together as a team with operating and then concurrently engaged our customers. And we did a number of things. You brought up a few. We adjusted our rates, the transactional rates and our surcharges to make sure that we could protect those customers that are with us year-round. We also inserted some new processes in place. So we gave our customers new guidelines for when they could bring their containers in. We sat down and talked with our customers about container dwell and chassis dwell. I talked about this a little bit earlier. We inserted as much technology as we could, adjusting and getting a higher percentage of our customers to our ITR function so that they could have greater visibility to when the containers would move. We worked with our dray carriers, inserted technology there, So they have really crystal clear times on when they can drop off or pick up a container. So as we stand today real time, we feel really good about where we are. Yes, it was bumpy earlier in the quarter. I think our customers really appreciate how we have worked with them up to this point. What I would also tell you is that as we are working with them to develop insert more efficiency and rigor around those processes, it's opened up more opportunities for us. I feel very bullish about the fact that with what Jim is doing with the train service, with what our terminals are doing, we're handling as much as possible, but we can still, through efficiency and adding in a little bit more equipment, get more volume out of it. So we're feeling pretty bullish about it.
Jim Venna
Chief Operating Officer
Ravi, if I could, and maybe I misunderstood the piece about about how fluid the railroad is. The railroad is as fluid as it ever has been. We do not have a capacity issue. In fact, we are spending money to actually make it more efficient. The consolidation in Chicago that I talked about and prepared before was clear to say we want to consolidate to two big terminals and one smaller one in Chicago from six so that we can turn the cars faster, give the customer a better service, be able to turn it. We see what the opportunity is, and we also see what's happened north of the border. And we think that the compete and the win, without being a price discussion, is to have a low cost. We operate our trains very efficiently. We operate them fast. We turn the cars quick. No one in North America moves in speed across their network with the premium business as fast as we do. right now. So we can give the best service product to people, whether you're going from LA over to Texas, and we're going to be as fast as anybody into the Chicago market. So that's what it's all about. We think that if we have the right service, we've got the capacity. We know we have. We spent on making the sidings longer so that we can run more efficient trains. When our train miles are down, which means that in the 20% range, That means that we've opened up that much capacity on top of the capacity we had before. So I'll tell you, we have got this thing coming together properly. More efficient terminals, more efficient invisibility with our customers at the ports and working with the ports so that we have an efficient product there, move the containers out quicker, the domestic product to make speed and consistency that the customer wants. I'll tell you, I'm very comfortable that where we're headed and we'll just continue to improve it.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
And, Ravi, let me touch base on your margin question, right, because you had a question about what's going to happen to margins on intermodal product as you look forward. In the long run and in the intermediate run, what Jim just outlined is a big driver of the margin on that product line, which is the efficiency of the service product and its service reliability. That sets us up for pricing through Kenny and our expectation with all of our product lines. is that over time we're going to continue to have an opportunity to improve its margin. So I don't look forward and get a concern as volume grows that costs are going to overrun, you know, some other aspect of that product. We're in great shape.
Jennifer Heyman
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, and you mentioned the surcharges too, and I think it's important to point out those surcharges are really a net in the overall scheme of things. And so, you know, we go through peak season, we remove surcharges. That's not going to have an impact on our margins.
Ravi Shankar
Morgan Stanley
Great. Thanks for the great detail. And Jim, thanks for everything and good luck for the next phase. Thank you very much, Ravi.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question comes from the line of John Sheffield with Evercore. Please proceed with your questions.
John Sheffield
Evercore
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Q&A fatigue makes it difficult to count to one, but I'm going to try my best here. Kenny, we've talked a lot about mix and yield, and I think conceptually it makes sense when you think about the growth of intermodal and some of the headwinds in the bulk categories. But you guys break out very clearly kind of the sequential pace within commodity. And when we look at like grain and food and refrigerated and coals and fertilizers, the sequential step-down has been even bigger than in some of the lower-mixed businesses. So what's kind of behind that, and what does it take to reverse that negative trend in the higher-yield bulk segments?
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
We're right there now. I'll segment some of the commodities that you're talking about. We feel really good about grain and walking into this quarter, the demand that's out there and the demand that should move in this quarter, and I'll call it the near term. We should see more of that. If you look at the other industrial commodities, I made the comment that they are improving sequentially. Now we can help with that. We can go out and add business development wins on top of that. And that's what the team is focused on. Our marketing team has just done a great job of going out there with data analysis and looking at where we should be hunting, where we should look at prospecting, where the leads are, where to reconnect with customers or smaller receivers that we've lost. And the sales team has got a really good proactive look on how much business we're doing with them. So the markets are coming back slowly, sequentially, which will help. And we're going to accelerate that by going out there and winning the business.
John Sheffield
Evercore
Okay, great. Thank you, Kenny.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question is from the line of Walter Spranklin with RBC Capital Markets. Please resume with your question.
Walter Spranklin
RBC Capital Markets
Yeah, thanks very much. Good morning, everyone. And, Jim, you answered all my questions about your departure. Just to say congrats and good luck to you as well. Thank you. Yeah, so moving to Kenny, I guess, you mentioned about stickiness of the customer and looking to get some fluidity out of the port. One of your peers in Canada has started to look proactively around using their land as a way to enhance or entice that stickiness about leasing land to a customer adjacent to facilities as one of those approaches. Do you have opportunity sets like that where when you look at your land portfolio, that you could use that as a sales weapon to gain share in a more sticky way and in a way that kind of gets some of that traffic and congestion out of the port and over to a transload facility more inland, something along those lines.
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
Yeah, thanks for that question. The short answer is yes. And that's not something new for us. I don't want you to think that we haven't done that. We've been assessing our land, looking at our land. I won't go into details of where we are and how we think about it longer term, but I can tell you that we would expect to take advantage of the resources near the port.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
A great case in point, Kenny, and we've talked about this for years now, is Dallas to dock and the development that's happening around the Dallas intermodal terminal, which Walter is literally – thousands of acres. In your mind, think a couple of thousand acres that we are developing and have developed in concert with a property developer that is rail-centric in its perspective. There's opportunities like that that we either have in the hopper, have already executed, or are beginning to develop development plans for.
Walter Spranklin
RBC Capital Markets
Any time frame of when that could be converted to a deal?
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Well, sure, no specifics, but I would expect virtually every year we will have some aspect of that kind of business development occurring.
Jennifer Heyman
Chief Financial Officer
I mean, there's business there now. Correct. And there's opportunities to go forward. And certainly, as you've heard us talk, Walter, as we have been consolidating facilities, I mean, we're generating more opportunities along those lines when you think about our footprint and the land profile that we have to work with customers to further grow. Right.
Walter Spranklin
RBC Capital Markets
Makes sense. Thanks for the call. Thanks, Walter.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question is from the line of Tom Wadowitz with UPS. Pleased to see you with your question.
Tom Wadowitz
UPS
Yeah, good morning. I know you talked about this a little bit, so I hope this isn't too redundant, but I think it is something that investors and, you know, I think people were surprised on the change. So, Jim, I was wondering if you could maybe offer any personal perspective on On the change, I mean, I think about it, you don't sound like you're overly tired or unenthused about railroading. So, you know, it just seems surprising that you're leaving. So I don't know if there's any personal color you can add to that and whether there's a board component. I mean, do you talk to the board about this and kind of say, you know, hey, you know, why should I stay or what's the path? So just wanted a little more perspective on that. And sticking with the two-part theme for Kenny, can you offer any thoughts on UP's franchise sensitivity to the home building area, just kind of how much the traffic is sensitive to that? So just a small add-on to that. Thank you.
Jim Venna
Chief Operating Officer
So, listen, I appreciate the question. The board's been very supportive, a clear understanding of what I came in, what the timeline was, what I wanted to do, how I wanted to set it up, and at what point I wanted to move on. I wouldn't read. There is absolutely nothing. The relationship is great with Lance. The relationship is great with the entire team. It's just a great time for me to move on and have a long-term person set up and Eric is a long-term person, you see his age, that he can drive this thing. And I'm very comfortable. This is a strong team. Like the people that are sitting here with me around the table, I'm very impressed with what Kenny's been able to perform. He's going to bring the business into this company. I just don't see it. We leverage the great facilities we have. It was a great question that Walter asked us about what capability we have. This is a great time. I think we've got a great network. We've got, if not the best network, pretty close to the best network in the entire industry. We leverage with a real efficient railroad. We grow the business. I just see this place keeping on moving ahead. And I've done what I needed to do. And Lance and I have worked out a real clear sort of helping the transition, which I'll do, with Eric and the entire team. And I'm very comfortable that we've got the right team. And, listen, Jennifer is top-notch and outstanding. The relationship Lance and I have had has been spectacular. You know, an outsider coming into a company that's the storied history that UP has, and they welcome me. We work together. I can't be more comfortable with everybody that I've worked with in this company. So, Kenny?
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
Yeah, so thanks for that question. I'll tell you, we're encouraged by the recent numbers for housing starts here that came out earlier this week. What's more encouraging for us is the mix, so there's a stronger mix of single-family housing starts and the multi-family housing starts, which works out well for us. As a franchise, hey, we enjoy some pretty long-haul shipments to Chicago, down into Texas, and we feel good about our strategy and ability to compete along the I-5. I think what people fail to realize or sometimes miss is when we think about housing starts, We're just not thinking about the lumber. There's just so many other commodities that are behind it. You've got cement. You've got PVC piping. You've got the rocks. You've got plastics for the carpet. So housing starts just really fuel a lot of things. I've got like furniture, appliances, roofing. It really fuels a lot of things. So that's a very encouraging macroeconomic change for us.
Tom Wadowitz
UPS
Is there a way to ballpark it, though? Is it like 10% of the books it's sensitive or 20 or what's the ballpark?
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
Yeah, I think it's fair for us not to go in and try to arrange that out for you and just leave that the fact that we like the fact that it's improving and we take advantage of moving not just that lumber that's moving into the house but everything associated with it.
Tom Wadowitz
UPS
Yeah. Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question is from the line of Jordan Allinger with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Jordan Allinger
Goldman Sachs
Yeah, hi. I just wanted to come back quickly to the grain question. I know you said you're encouraged, but specifically on the export side, you know, our understanding is, you know, commitments for both soybean and corn are well above five-year averages to China. And just, Kenny, maybe you could give some sense or scope of the export grain franchise for UP and And what sort of tailwind that could really be? Thanks.
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
Yeah, so I've got myself in trouble trying to size this grain market before. So what I will confirm for you is that you're right in line. It's going to be right in there with the highs over the last five years. It's going to be a really strong market. And so I can confirm that for you. I won't size it for you. But it's going to be a really strong market for you.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
And Kenny, we'll participate there both out the P and W. We'll participate there out the Gulf.
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
You know, we've seen significant growth in those three areas, and I'm adding Mexico to it. So the PNW, the Gulf, and Mexico, we have seen significant emphasis on that, significant growth, and we've got high expectations for the quarter.
Brandon Igleski
Barclays
Great. Thank you.
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
Mm-hmm.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question is from the line of David Ross with Seville. Please proceed with your questions.
David Ross
Thank you. And, Jim, now that you mention it, could you just run for president?
Jim Venna
Chief Operating Officer
You know, I'm an American citizen, but I wasn't born in the U.S., so I cannot do it. Otherwise, I'd like to sometimes, let me tell you.
David Ross
I'd love to get you on the ballot as a better third option. But going back to the improved efficiency of the network and the excess capacity that it's generating for the UP, specifically in terms of rail car locomotive needs, How much do you think you can really grow volume-wise before you need new rail cars, new locomotives, and how much of that capacity have you actually taken out, removed, retired, versus just keeping in storage for future growth?
Jim Venna
Chief Operating Officer
Well, let me start, and then maybe, Jennifer, you want to talk about how we're handling it. But, sure, we've got lots of locomotives. I didn't even mention it this time. I think we've got 3,000 of them parked, so we won't be needing locomotives. If we could sell some of them, and I'll leave that to Jennifer, but if we could do something to monetize them, I think we would, but it's a pretty tough market. On the rail car side, depending on the mix of the traffic, we have cars available, cars parked. We've returned as many as we can to make us more efficient that way. So it's a mix on what we'd have to have depending on where the business is. That's the way I look at it. If we were done operationally, then you could say, boy, if the business went up on one segment on the grain side, boy, you know, we'd have to go out and lease more cars to bring it in. We will not. We still have efficiency left to be able to, if the business goes up X, we're going to be half of that on the cars that we have to put in to be able to handle that business. And that's what I'm real comfortable with.
Jennifer Heyman
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, and on the freight car and locomotive side, David, freight cars, we tend to own, this isn't entirely true, but we tend to own the multi-use kind of cars. And so as you see changes in markets, like we've seen the surge in grain, we've been able to repurpose some cars that had been hauling fertilizer and move into grain service. And obviously a box car can move anything. So our freight car fleet, we feel good about where that's at and our ability to deploy it as we need to. On the locomotive side, You know, we look at the fleet by type. We have a relatively young fleet kind of overall, and we have opportunities to modernize that fleet and redeploy it as the volumes come back up, and we see that as an opportunity for us going forward. We're obviously going to use the fleet as efficiently as possible, but we've got plans for every locomotive we own, and whether it's today or maybe tomorrow, That's the opportunity for us. You've heard us talk a lot about growth and the growth of margins. The capital efficiency of our ability to grow going forward is tremendous when you think about the fact that we have the freight car assets, the locomotives, and the track assets to put more business across and leverage that investment that we've already made is a tremendous opportunity for us that we look forward to taking advantage of.
Tom Wadowitz
UPS
Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from the line of Sherrilyn Radborn with TD Securities.
Sherrilyn Radborn
TD Securities
Good morning. Thanks for speaking, Ian and Jim. Our best to you. I wanted to ask, with the industry now operating based on kind of a similar philosophy, do you think there's an opportunity to work together a bit more creatively to develop new interchange traffic?
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Oh, 100%, Sherrilyn. And we're actively working that with every other Class 1 railroad partner, of course, excluding BNSF. There's really not much opportunity to do that with them. But, you know, what do you think about it in the context of historically there's this watershed area, and for us that typically is along the Mississippi River where, If there's an origination on my side of the river, it's short haul for me to get it to an eastern carrier. And a lot of times, historically, that's not looked terribly attractive. But when we're all thinking about our business the same way now, and we're all eager to grow with our excellent service product, we're all starting to think about, you know, just because it's a short haul on my side, if it generates revenue, an attractive relationship with a customer, it gets more railroad penetration, and there's opportunity on their side of the river to originate for us, we're making those trades. And we're not doing it historically like we might have where in order to make the move attractive for me, I'm going to move it out of route and put it to a gateway where it doesn't make sense so I get a little length of haul. That's not happening anymore, right? We're all thinking very clearly about best practices overall route structure, what's the price it takes to win, is that attractive in total? And if it is, let's do it and do it collectively.
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
I want to end on this one, Lance. So to Lance's point, you're right. We're thinking about it as what would we do if we're one railroad. And that's product development components associated with that, not just service. It could be something a little bit more than service. It could be something, a physical footprint that's there. Obviously, the equipment efficiency plays a part of it, but on an interline basis, how do we go out and win that truck traffic that's out there that we haven't been able to capture? Amen.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
A lot of opportunity there, Sherilyn.
Sherrilyn Radborn
TD Securities
Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question is from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein. Please receive your question. Mr. Vernon, your line is open for questions.
David Ross
Seville
Sorry, that was on mute there. So, Lance, I wanted to come back to the question on domestic intermodal. You know, we continue to hear from shippers as well as the supply chain partners that the ease of accessing the network, you know, the service on the network is what it is, and you guys reported good metrics there, but As you think about the friction cost of getting in and out of the terminals on the intermodal, that is kind of holding back growth to a degree. And I'm just wondering, you know, what can you as Union Pacific do over the next couple of years to solve that problem? You mentioned earlier that, you know, going retail or developing more retail capabilities isn't part of the solution. But I'm just wondering, you know, how do we get out of this situation where when demand picks up, you end up in a situation where you've got to throw off surcharges to keep traffic out of the yards?
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Yeah, great question, David. And I want to also be clear. I didn't say that at some point in the future retail isn't the answer. I just wanted to make sure nobody thought I was announcing a new product on our call. So technology plays a really big role in what you were just talking about. What you're talking about, David, is fundamentally ease of doing business and removing blockages that keep customers from using the rail intermodal product. And to your point, Kenny's mentioned this before, ITR. One of those can be if you schedule a truck, when you bid for a truck, you can get it scheduled at the time you want it, where you want it, and be very confident that it's going to show up for you to load or to empty. We're reflecting the same kind of thing through ITR. ITR is basically a reservation system that allows domestic intermodal customers to know, hey, I want to move this container from here to there. And A, do you have availability on the day I want it? If the answer is yes, I'm booked and I know I got it. If the answer is no, I know when I can get it. And if it doesn't match my needs, it doesn't match my needs. But at least I have clarity and I don't make an assumption and then get angry when it doesn't happen. So that's one small example. We're also making it much easier for dray drivers when they come onto the ramp with UPGO to be able to get through the gate quickly, know exactly where to park, where to drop off, and where to pick up and go. So they're getting a lot of help that way. We're helping the BCOs also by making sure we're tracking down chassis and keeping them productive in our terminal areas, right? Sometimes chassis get off property and they get lost or used for very different purposes that aren't bringing business to and from the railroad. So there's just hundreds of different activity items in there that ultimately lead to a better customer experience. That's what I mean by that end-to-end experience.
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
Kenny, you got anything else for that? No, I mean the fact that we're sitting down with our customers, talking about these chassis, talking about the container dwell, giving them really good data points, managing with data. So, yes, that's good.
David Ross
Seville
And is there anything in the terminal side itself from an automation standpoint or better throughput capacity that would also need to be addressed? Because this seems like every time the truck market gets tight, we end up in the same kind of pig in the python kind of problem.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
That's a great question, right? And part of that is, yes, we can continue to be better and better. As we're rebuilding G4, we're introducing widespread gantry cranes there. That'll be part of being able to get a box on and off a well quickly. Part of that also though is making sure we have visibility deeper into the supply chain. Right now, if stuff shows up with very little advance notice, it's hard to realign our rail resources to handle it. To the extent we can get a week or even two, we can realign our resources pretty quickly. That gets back to ITR. ITR is most effective when a maximum number of customers are using it, and they're using it as far out as they can. And we're working really hard with our customer base to get that to be kind of normalized behavior.
David Ross
Seville
All right. Thanks a lot for your time, Jeff.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Yep. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from the line of Basco Majors with Susquehanna. Let's just see with your question.
Basco Majors
Susquehanna
Yeah, Jim, congrats on the time you spent here and good luck with whatever's next. Just wanted to focus on in the eight or nine months you've got left here, what are the one or two things you absolutely feel like you must wrap up? And what are the larger projects that are going to take another couple of years or so under Eric's leadership that are really kind of focused on that transition?
Jim Venna
Chief Operating Officer
Okay. You know, short-term, listen, we've had a lot of discussion about our intermodal service products. We see that as a growth area. So I'm going to concentrate on making sure the end-to-end view, ports, domestic terminals, we make them as efficient as possible. We make the interaction with the customer as clear as possible so that we can react better. I think we did a pretty good job of reacting to the big bump up in business, but I think we can be better. I want to concentrate on the relationship with the other railroads and how we interchange and how we move traffic back and forth to make it even cleaner than we are today because I think we can both win. That was a great question on how we're reacting with the other customers. And listen, other than locomotives, asset utilization, service, productivity, that's what I'm going to concentrate on in the next – and I'll let Eric run it and we'll make sure that – that were attuned, lined up together, and finish that off. So that's what I'm going to do in the next six to eight months. Thank you. Thank you. Appreciate it.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Next question comes from the line of Hiram Nathan with Iowa. Pleased to see you with your question.
Hiram Nathan
Iowa
Hi, thanks for squeezing me in here. I just had a question on CapEx. How should we think about it for next year, given you're not going to be acquiring any locomotives, but are there any projects planned for next year which would kind of, you know, put some takes on the CapEx side? And also, if you could, I know you mentioned the package business is – It's a very good business. Can you just kind of go through some of the economics of that business here?
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
I'll take CapEx. Jennifer, from a project perspective, there's nothing big that's unusual on the horizon. We're sticking with our guidance, Jennifer?
Jennifer Heyman
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I mean, you know, the less than 15% of revenue is where we would plan to be again for next year, and obviously we'll talk more about that in January. You know, I know we still have some siting projects that we plan to finish out, some that we'll finish out yet this year, and a little bit more of that work. But, you know, we continue to have a robust plan. We'll modernize locomotives. We'll continue to make sure the infrastructure is in good shape. So I feel good about our ability to spend that capital to keep the railroad safe, efficient, and add the capacity as needed for customers.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Well, and one thing that we haven't talked about on this call is our new CIO coming over starting at the beginning of November, and technology we've talked about throughout the call as an important element of our overall service product and ability to grow and win business, and I'm sure he's going to have a help, and we'll also have some capital elements, but I don't think it will be an unusually high spend.
Jennifer Heyman
Chief Financial Officer
No. I don't have anything else.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
He asked about Parcel. How's the Parcel biz?
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
Oh, yeah, I mean, Parcel has been strong. We've gone out there. The market has grown, but like I mentioned, we've gone out there and had some pretty strong wins across the board on our Parcel business. Expanding beyond Parcel because Parcel business is a pretty, what I'll call, service-sensitive business. I've been very proud of the team, our loop team. Kerry Kirchhoff leads that team. We've been able to win some service-sensitive business with two large OEMs. All of this is truck traffic. One of them is a new entrance to rail, and the product is both short-haul and long-haul. So if you look at e-commerce and look at the service-sensitive markets, the team behind that service product has really done a great job of going in.
Hiram Nathan
Iowa
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our final question today comes from Allison Polignac with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
Allison Polignac
Wells Fargo
Hi, guys. Good morning. So I just want to make sure I understand the comments around new business opportunities and wins. Are you starting to see those accelerate and broaden here with the improved network and, you know, some of the efficiencies that you pulled through? And certainly understanding it's been an unusual year. Are those opportunities where you thought they would be at this point in your journey? Any thoughts there?
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
Yeah. So the two changes there is a strong, reliable service product that we haven't had in some time. The other thing is a lower cost structure would also make pieces of business more attractive that we haven't seen. I made some comments around opening up new markets and gave some examples of long-haul business just a few minutes ago, but we're also seeing the same thing with some short-haul business, short-haul car load business where, again, if we can add large pieces to existing train service or even small volume pieces to existing train service, it drops to the bottom line. But those two things alone have really enabled our sales team and our marketing team to be very pointed and deliberate in having conversations with our customers about truck conversions.
Allison Polignac
Wells Fargo
Great. And just, you know, are those opportunities kind of now at this point in your journey? Are you kind of thinking are they where they should be at this point? Are they a little better? Any thoughts there?
Kenny Rocker
Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales
We have. We certainly have room to grow. There's opportunity for us to grow, and we're excited and bullish on where we expect to be. But there's no part of this where we're ready to say that we've arrived or we're done. We've got a lot of room to grow here.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Alison, we think more sooner, better. That's what Kenny hears all the time. Great.
Allison Polignac
Wells Fargo
Thank you, guys.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. We've reached the end of our question and answer session, and I would now like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Lance Fritz for closing comments.
Lance Fritz
Chairman, President, and CEO for Union Pacific
Thank you again, Rob, and thanks, everyone, for the questions. It was a really good session today. I want to thank Jim again. I'm so pleased we've got him for as long as we do. We're going to put him to good use over the next eight months. And we look forward to talking with all of you again in January to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2020 results. Until then, I wish you all good health. Please take care of yourself and take care. Thank you. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
Disclaimer