US Foods Holding Corp.

Thank you for standing by. My name is Eric and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the U.S. Foods fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Mike Neese, Senior Vice President Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Eric. Good morning and welcome to U.S. Foods fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2023 earnings call. On today's call, we have Dave Flippen, our CEO, and Dirk Licacio, our CFO. We will take your questions after our prepared remarks conclude. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Our earnings release issued earlier this morning in today's presentation can be found on the Investor Relations page of our website at .USFoods.com. During today's call, and unless otherwise stated, we're comparing our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results to the same period in fiscal year 2022. In addition to historical information, certain statements made during today's call are considered forward-looking statements. Please review the risk factors in our Form 10-K for a detailed discussion of the potential factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in those results. Lastly, during today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. All reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the schedules on our earnings press release, as well as in the presentation slides posted on our website. We are not providing reconciliations to forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Dave. Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everyone,

and thank you for joining us today. Let's turn to today's agenda. I'll start by sharing highlights from my first year at U.S. Foods and progress against our key strategy pillars and long-range plan before I hand it over to DIRF to review our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results, as well as fiscal 2024 guidance. 2023 was an exciting year at U.S. Foods. Through execution of our strategy and long-range plan, which underpins our company's transformation, we accomplished many of our goals, including capturing profitable market share and enhancing margins. Following this past year's success, I am even more confident in our ability to continue to gain profitable market share with independent restaurants, health care, and hospitality customers, improve productivity, drive margin expansion, and deliver double-digit adjusted EPS growth. We achieved record full-year 2023 adjusted EBITDA of $1.56 billion, driven by strong case growth, including independent case growth of nearly 7 percent and market share gains with target customer types. This was combined with 53 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, which came as a result of the implementation of key operational initiatives we outlined at the beginning of the year. Our proprietary digital platforms, Moxie and Vitals, were key drivers of our top-line performance in 2023 and are enablers of further growth in 2024 and beyond. We also deployed our strong operating cash flow to reduce net leverage to 2.8 times, which is within our target range. In 2020, we purchased approximately $300 million in shares and completed two accretive tuck-in acquisitions, all while investing in the business for continued organic growth. We continue to lead the industry in the digital customer experience by constantly innovating and adding new capabilities to meet our customers' needs. Our differentiated business model, digital expertise, and sustainable competitive advantages will enable us to drive continued market outperformance. The structural improvements we made in 2023 position us to win in any macro environment. My confidence comes from the strong momentum we built delivering against our long-range plan and from our 30,000 dedicated associates who bring their expertise and tireless dedication to work every day. Turning to slide four, our strategy guides how we operate and what we are focused on to win and comprises four pillars. Culture, service, growth, and profit. I believe these are the right areas of focus to ensure continued service improvements and sustainable top and bottom-line growth. We're excited about the progress we've made to accelerate each of these coming into this year. Moving to slide five, let's take a look at some of our key accomplishments in 2023 that our team delivered under our four pillars. Our first pillar is cultures. The safety of our associates remains our number one priority and we made significant strides in 2023 to reduce the number of vehicle accidents and associated injuries across our facilities. Our injury and accident frequency rates improved from the prior year by 23 percent and importantly, our fourth quarter and full year 2023 safety results were our best in recent history. Additionally, creating a supportive and inclusive workplace is key to our success and we enhanced our diverse talent pipeline by filling 47 percent of new or open leadership roles with women or people of color, exceeding our 40 percent goal. We also remain responsible stewards of our planet and in 2023 reported reducing absolute scope one and scope two greenhouse gas emissions by 13 percent during the previous year. 40 percent of the way toward achieving our 2032 target. We continue to make progress on infrastructure design and construction to support electric vehicles and took delivery of 40 electric trucks and eight electric yard tractors in addition to completing the delivery of 42 compressed natural gas trucks. We also continue to innovate and offer our customers more sustainable private label products, many of which come under our serve good product portfolio. In 2023, as part of our strategic focus on fighting hunger, we donated more than 13 million dollars in food and supplies to hunger and disaster relief partners, which is the equivalent of roughly five million meals, more than 225 truckloads of food. As a feeding America mission partner, US foods provides year round support to food banks across the country through financial and product donations. This work is supported by our associates who volunteer their time and resources to fight hunger through annual company wide engagement campaigns. Since 2007, US foods has donated more than 170 million pounds of product to aid national hunger relief efforts. Turning to our service pillar, we continue to focus on providing a best in class delivery experience. We are proud to report our on time and in full customer service levels are now back to pre-COVID levels. We delivered the best cases per mile in our company's history again in the fourth quarter, improving over our prior third quarter record. We launched the Dakar Routing pilot in two markets in the fourth quarter and have taken away early learnings to apply to our national launch this year. Our routing initiative provided us with more than 5% improvement in routing effectiveness in 2023, while also focusing on further improvements in on time deliveries enabled by the Dakar platform. As I mentioned earlier, we are also transforming the experience for our customers through our Moxie Digital Solutions platform that enables customers to easily place orders, manage inventory and pay bills, while freeing up time for our sales teams to further accelerate growth. In short, it puts our supply chain in the hands of our customers, which will generate tremendous efficiency for both our customers and US foods. Moxie is now fully embedded with our independent restaurant business and approximately 50% of our national chain business, with full deployment anticipated by the second half of 2024. Our digital penetration is at an all time high of 73% for independent restaurants. Our net promoter score, which is the highest in the industry among top food service distributors, continues to increase since the launch of Moxie. We want to help our customers succeed and are giving them digital tools to make it easier for them to do business with us, which we believe is a key differentiating factor in our success. Now let's turn to our growth pillar. In 2023, we had net sales growth of .5% to $35.6 billion, driven by our .4% growth in total case volume, led by .9% increase in independent restaurant case volume, a .2% increase in healthcare volume, and an .9% increase in hospitality volume. We exceeded our one and a half times restaurant market growth goal and have now gained market share with independent restaurants for 11 consecutive quarters. We anticipate this will continue over the course of 2024. Our volume gains in both healthcare and hospitality were driven largely by converting our pipeline of customers into new business through our service model and innovation, such as our highly differentiated vitals platform for acute care and senior living facilities. This platform allows customers to increase patient satisfaction and reduce labor and staffing costs. This improves revenue flow and bolsters operations through more effective pricing strategies, staff training, and menu planning. We also continue to differentiate ourselves through our fresh on-trend and labor-saving scoop product innovations, such as our recently launched Chef's Line exclusive brand of kimchi fried rice and a unique team-based selling model featuring our expert chefs and restaurant operations consultants. These are significant competitive differentiators that our customers have grown to value. Our hard work and commitment to constantly innovate was recognized as one of Fortune's most innovative companies that are transforming industries from the inside out. Companies were ranked based on an assessment of four dimensions of innovation, product, process, culture, and revenue growth. We believe our products will continue to be industry-leading as we use our in-house expertise, market research, and supplier relationships to deliver value to our customers. We also expanded Pronto, which is our differentiated and flexible small truck delivery model aimed at improving customer service in targeted, dense geographies. Today, Pronto has a presence in 35 markets, and we plan to launch it in another five markets in 2024. Pronto has been a great addition to our customer service model and has accelerated independent restaurant case growth in markets where we have added it. Much opportunity remains for continued growth in both existing and new markets. The real machine behind our growth pillar is our sellers. Last quarter, I highlighted that we were working on revisions to our territory manager sales compensation plan. I want to provide a bit more context on the changes that we've made. Why change now? We had our current sales compensation plans for several years and last made modifications during the early portion of the pandemic. We wanted to ensure our sales teams are aligned in accelerating profitable growth, and that requires effectively incentivizing our sellers for that profitable growth. A few highlights. We made more of our sellers' compensation variable, with the variable component now uncapped and focused on accelerating profitable growth and private label penetration. We assigned individual volume targets and higher margin private label targets for sellers that roll up to our company business plan, ensuring we are all working together to achieve our profit and market share growth goals. Finally, we have implemented a more disciplined approach to route splitting to ensure our territory sizes are manageable. We are confident this plan better positions us for success and ensures we are growing together across the organization. In 2023, we increased seller headcount by 6%. We're having great success in finding the right sales talent to ensure that our profitable growth continues well into the future. We continue to believe adding sales headcount in the low to mid single digits is the right model for US foods going forward. Turning to M&A. To bolster our local footprint in select markets, we executed two tuck-in acquisitions last year, Renzi Food Service and Saladino's Food Service. And this morning, we're excited to announce that we've signed an agreement to purchase IWC Food Service, which serves the greater Nashville area, one of the fastest growing markets in the country. This acquisition fills an important gap in our footprint and allows us to expand into the central Tennessee market. IWC has approximately 220 associates and $200 million in annual sales. More than half of their business is in the growing independent restaurant space. We're excited to welcome the IWC associates to the US Foods team and are targeting to close the transaction in the second quarter. Finally, let's move to our profit pillar. Driving margin, productivity, and optimization of our business are the key tenets of this pillar. Addressing cost of goods sold, proactively managing pricing to help neutralize commodity volatility, and healthy volume growth with target customer types all contributed to enhancing our margins. As a result of our improving execution, we grew adjusted EBITDA 19% to a record $1.56 billion and delivered record EBITDA for taste, while expanding adjusted EBITDA margin by over 50 basis points to .4% and growing adjusted EPS by 23% to $2.63. Adjusted gross profit grew 9% in 2023 to $6.1 billion. We drove further progress on initiatives such as cost of goods sold by working collaboratively with additional vendors. We addressed approximately 60% of cost last year and continue to look for additional cost savings in 2024 as we deliver on the remaining 40% of our vendor spend that has not yet been addressed. We are also focused on growing our private label brands, where our penetration was up 40 basis points to over 50% with independent restaurants. Adjusted operating expenses grew less than gross profit, resulting in operating leverage. Our flexible scheduling initiative is now live in over half of our locations, and we continue to receive positive feedback. We will roll out the remaining appropriate locations in 2024. We continue to see significant improvements across our network, especially in our pilots, including year over year reduction in turnover that is approximately twice the rate of improvement versus our other locations. 33% improvement in safety and continued improvement in productivity. As a result of our supply chain initiatives, we delivered more than 5% improvement in both delivery and warehouse productivity. We began to see early results with our indirect spending initiative late last year and expect to accelerate those savings in 2024. We have identified a number of opportunities which will favorably and permanently impact operating expenses. This work is an important enabler to achieving our target of 3 to 5% overall annual productivity savings in 2024. Before I hand it over to Dirk, I would like to highlight one of our talented associates. Soon we will be celebrating associates who ignite excellence in our first ever CEO awards. Out of the hundreds of associates nominated across the company, Mike Talmadge, our Knight Warehouse Manager in Albany, is one of our 25 semi-finalist nominations. Mike's leadership has driven significant improvements in safety, associate engagement, quality, and profit at the local level. His efforts have quickly become a benchmark for excellence within the company, influencing customer service and our ability to grow profitably. Mike is one of thousands of our associates who strive for greatness within U.S. Foods, and we appreciate his leadership and the dedication of each of our associates. I am pleased with our progress in 2023 as we gain momentum, executing against the four pillars of our strategy, which is driving improved safety, service, productivity, and profitability. Even considering this tremendous progress, we have a long runway of profitable growth. The team and I look forward to sharing our next long-range plan during our Investor Day in June, and we hope you will join us. Let me now turn the call over to Dirk to discuss our fourth quarter results and our 2024 guidance.

Thank you, Dave. Good morning, everyone. I'll cover three topics with you this morning. First, I'll discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. Second, I'll provide an update on capital deployment. And finally, I'll discuss our first quarter and full year 2024 guidance. Turning to slide seven, I'll walk you through our fourth quarter results in greater detail. The fourth quarter was a strong finish to 2023 as our full year adjusted EBITDA margins increased double digits and we continued to grow our margins. Net sales increased .9% to $8.9 billion, driven by total case volume growth of 5.6%. Food cost inflation was essentially flat, while mix was a headwind of 70 basis points. We drove strong volume growth in each of our target customer types again this quarter. Volume increased .3% for independent restaurants, including approximately 100 basis points of growth from acquisitions. Healthcare growth was .1% and hospitality was 5%. Healthcare and hospitality continue to deliver strong, profitable growth, driven in large part by healthy net new business. We remain focused on expanding within our target customer types and expect to continue that momentum in 2024. Chef store volume in November and December had low single digit case growth, which was in line with our expectations. We continue to expect accelerated growth in 2024. This quarter, we moved all chef store cases to all other and thus they are no longer included in independence. We made this change to be consistent with how third party providers such as CIRCANA, formerly known as NPD, report market share data and it better aligns with how peers communicate their broad line growth. All periods have been updated for consistency. During the fourth quarter, adjusted gross profit increased 6% to $1.5 billion, while adjusted operating expenses increased 4% to $1.2 billion. Our adjusted gross profit continues to grow faster than adjusted op-ex. Adjusted EBITDA was $388 million, or 11% growth from the prior year. We expanded adjusted EBITDA margins by nearly 25 basis points to 4.3%. Finally, adjusted diluted EPS grew .4% to 64 cents per share, demonstrating our continued growth of EPS faster than adjusted EBITDA. Turning to slide 8, we made significant progress on a per case basis in 2023, which we believe emphasizes strong execution of our strategy. Our adjusted gross profit per case increased .5% in 2023, while our adjusted operating expense per case was up 1%. Importantly, our adjusted EBITDA per case was $1.93 for the full year, up 14% year over year and represents .3% compound annual growth rate since 2019. We have demonstrated strong leverage through the P&L with operating expense per case growing at a slower rate than gross profit per case, and we expect to maintain that operational discipline in 2024 and beyond. Moving to slide 9, our strong operating cash flow creates flexibility to deploy capital strategically to enable growth. Our 2023 operating cash flow was $1.1 billion, with free cash flow of over $800 million. We invested $309 million in cash capbacks. We continue to focus on projects to expand our fleet and invest in capacity and technology to enable organic growth. Our ongoing cash capback target is approximately 1% of net sales, and we will remain disciplined in our approach. Following a successful closing of Renzi in Q3, we closed the Saladino's acquisition in December for a purchase price of $56 million. We remain committed to returning capital to shareholders as we repurchase 1.6 million shares in the fourth quarter for $65 million. We have $192 million remaining on our $500 million share repurchase program. Before moving on to guidance, I want to highlight the significant progress we made in reducing our leverage in 2023. We ended the year at 2.8 times leverage, which is a .7 turn reduction versus 2022. We were steadfast in our approach to lowering our leverage last year, which we accomplished through disciplined debt paydowns and EBITDA growth. We expect to remain in our net target leverage range between two and a half and three times for 2024. Our balance sheet is in solid shape, which informs our capital allocation framework. We will continue to invest in the business, repurchase shares given the current valuation of our stock price, and evaluate tuck in M&A opportunities. Now, I'll discuss our guidance on slide 11. Importantly, there are several assumptions on this slide. Before year 2024, we expect total company net sales to be $37.5 billion to $38.5 billion, an increase of approximately 5 to 8%. We believe we can grow our total cases by 4 to 6%, and we expect slight inflation of 0.5 to 1.5%. Our tuck in M&A from last year, combined with the IWC announcement, will add approximately 2 percentage points to our case growth. We expect our independent restaurant case growth to continue running higher than our overall case growth. As a result of good faith bargaining efforts, our agreement with the union in Bensonville that represents our drivers was ratified on February 3rd. U.S. Foods has a long-standing record of bargaining in good faith and reaching agreements with the union. From the start, we took a principled approach and provided a fair offer to the union before and after the expiration of the contract on December 29th. We are pleased that the agreed upon proposal largely reflects the economics outlined in that offer. The five-year agreement provides wage and benefit increases that builds on the highly competitive offerings our drivers in Bensonville currently receive. It also includes safety enhancements aligned with the very high priority we place on associate safety. There was an increased cost to us for business continuity and labor relations to serve our customers, as well as weather-related issues across the country, which have been noted by several others in our industry. As a result, we expect an approximate $20 million negative impact to adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter, primarily driven by incremental costs during the labor disruptions. We believe the first quarter adjusted EBITDA will get a range of $340 million to $355 million. Even with the labor disruption and the weather-related issues that we experienced in January, we remain confident on achieving our full-year guidance. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be $1.69 to $1.74 billion and adjusted diluted EPS to be $3 to $3.20. This translates into double-digit growth on the bottom line from the combination of profitable growth and margin expansion, as we expect gross profit per case to grow faster than OPEX. In closing, 2023 was a strong year. I feel very good about the opportunity in front of us, the momentum we are generating, and our growth potential this year as outlined in our 2024 guidance. I'll now pass it back to Dave for his closing remarks.

Thanks, Dirk. As we move into 2024, we will continue to execute our strategy and maintain our disciplined approach to capital deployment to drive long-term value creation for our shareholders. Before we head into Q&A, I would like to comment on our long-term growth prospects. As I said before, our 2024 adjusted EBITDA target is not a ceiling for this company, and we are confident that we will continue to grow adjusted EBITDA in the high single to low double-digit range over the next several years. And we will continue to grow adjusted EPS even faster through a combination of earnings growth and share repurchases. Stay tuned. There's more to come on our Investor Day on June 5th. We are in a great position today, and I believe we have sustainable competitive advantages to outperform the market well into the future as we continue to do what we do best, helping our customers make it every day. Thank you for your continued trust and confidence in U.S. Foods. I have never been more excited about our future. With that, Eric, please open up the line for questions.

At this time, I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Lauren Silberman with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Thanks so much, and congrats on the quarter. If I could just start with capital allocation. It looks like you'll get close to a billion in free cash flow this year. You're not your target leverage. Even with active positions, it looks like you have a lot of cash left over. Can you talk about how you're thinking about capital allocation appetite to further pay down debt versus buybacks or even potential for a dividend?

Good morning, Lauren. This is Dirk. So, yes, we are excited. The strong cash flow. We do expect that to meaningfully grow, as you point out, as we grow earnings. And as our debt is already well within our target range, what we expect in 2024 is to have a reduction of leverage, but more from earnings growth as opposed to much more on debt pay down. So that means that in addition to investing in the business, it will be around share repurchases and our purchasing M&A. So we're very excited about the idea we see announced this morning, and we would expect over the course of the year to increase the amount that we allocate for share repurchases.

Great, very helpful. And then if I could just ask on case growth, and there's a lot of noise of weather and some of the idiosyncratic factors you called out in one queue. Any color on what you're seeing more recently as things began to normalize and just the confidence in the 4 to 6% case growth for the year. Thank you very much.

Thanks for the question, Lauren. You know, as you've heard from others, there were a few weather disruptions across the country in January. That's no surprise. But we were pleased actually with the recovery that we've seen since we got past the labor disruption and those weather events, not notwithstanding what happened on the West Coast last week in a little nor'easter earlier this week. And really, really pleased with the team's work around the labor disruption. You know, I've been doing this for a long time in many industries. And I've seen labor disruptions before. I will tell you that. We were as well prepared going into that event as I've ever seen. We came out of it with a very strong plan to go get our volume back. And so I'm pleased to see the progress that we've made and largely in those non labor disrupted markets. We've seen our volumes get back to basically the trajectory we saw in the fourth quarter, which was very strong as you heard this morning. So really feeling good about that and just a little bit more color I can give you is the early read on the data formally MPD, as Dirk said. We maintained our market share in January and I was quite pleased to hear that. So all in all, more work to do, but feel really good about our trajectory and certainly our team's focus to continue to drive that growth.

Thanks so much.

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Harbor with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning, guys. When you think about sort of the productivity and opportunity this year, what do you think will be most impactful kind of that's different than what you did in twenty three?

I think largely, Brian, you will see us continue to lean in on the areas that we've been focused on and I was pleased. You know, it's kind of the tail of two halves. Last year we spent a lot of time in the first half of the year, really honing our focus in on the needle moving activities. And really pleased with the trajectory that you saw us deliver in the back half of the year, resulting in those productivity improvements that I quoted. Look, there's more work to do in all those areas, whether it's in cogs and the work we've done with our suppliers, the pricing optimization work. And certainly the supply chain productivity really pleased with the progress we're making in routing, but there's a lot more to do there. So, largely the same. You heard my comments earlier about indirect spend. That's a piece of work that we started to talk about in the back half of last year and really started to see some traction really in the back half of the fourth quarter. So that was very good to see. And I think we will ramp up that effort significantly in the first half of this year and deliver significant productivity improvement there as well. So, largely a lot of the same work, just a lot more to do and a few new things.

Okay, thanks. And when you kind of talk about low to mid single digit increases in headcount, as I think it sounds like the typical rate, how does that usually flow through to case growth or do you have a certain target that this should drive flow through to case growth?

Yeah, I think, you know, largely it depends on the mix of talent that you're bringing in. We have had great success in finding strong sales talent with industry experience and not all that's coming directly from competition. You know, others in food service that understand the market and the industry and have a sales background fit really well in our model. We spend a lot of time training people, as you know, and I think long term, Brian, the right way to think about that is, you know, we should be able to grow our cases 30 years from now. So, we're going to be able to do that. So, we're going to be able to do that. So, we're going to be able to do that. So, we're going to be able to do that. So, we're going to be able to do that.

So, we're going to be able to do that. So, we're going to be able to do that. We have Kelly Banya with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for taking our questions. Just wanted to ask, as we think about that 2 to 4% organic case growth target for 24, can you talk about the channels in more detail? It sounds like you're definitely still planning for those independents to outpace the total, but maybe within healthcare and hospitality. Are there, is there any outsized growth left there for those channels or maybe just help us think about what you're seeing in terms of the new business pipelines for healthcare and hospitality?

Yeah, for sure we will continue to maintain our focus in the independent space. It's the most profitable segment of the business. It plays to our strengths in terms of our product and sales portfolio. So, that's clearly a very strong focus for us. And what we saw last last year to your to your question in hospitality and healthcare, largely a strong recovery from an industry perspective, which provided some tailwinds. But importantly, as we talked about last year, we believe we're differentiated in healthcare with our vitals platform and some of the other things we have on the technology front. And we've got a very strong pipeline in both healthcare and hospitality that we expect will deliver outsized growth again this year. Maybe not at the rate that we saw last year, just given the recovery is largely intact, but we expect to continue to drive growth after above market in both of those segments.

Great, that is helpful. Can I just also ask about the sales compensation? Sounds like you're making some tweaks there. Can you just remind us the timing of that change and what you're seeing across the end? There's across the space from kind of the other private players. This is kind of a broad change happiness across the industry as as as we've kind of normalized and growth or is this just maybe unique to us foods and a couple of others?

Yeah, I really can't comment on what others are doing relative to their sales comp. I think my color this morning, I largely gave in our prepared remarks where we really hadn't made any significant changes to our plan. Since since some tweaks that were made in the pandemic, which was largely aimed at maintaining ourselves headcount and providing what we needed to to keep folks in the company as volumes decline. And as we get back on this aggressive profitable growth plan, those tweaks that we talked about there are really aimed at just giving our sellers the incentive they need to accelerate growth. You know, the couple things around shifting to more variable compensation untapping that portion of their pay. You know, I want our sellers to make as much money as they possibly can, because that means great things for our growth and for the company's future. So again, I kind of foreshadowed this last quarter saying these were tweaks, not significant overhauls of our comp plan and it's been well received. And to your question that all went into effect here in the first quarter.

Thank

you. Your next question comes from the line of John Heinbach with Guggenheim Securities. Please go ahead.

Hey, Dave, want to start with the investment in account facing folks. When you think about business managers, you know, territorial guys, specialists. Where do you want, how do you want that investment to shake out? And then curious the impact that would have on new account additions versus Mark Wallach share, right? You know, is there what's your strategic thrust there?

Yeah, I think the question is, we, you know, we're focused on adding territory managers to continue to drive growth. But to your point, they have to have the right support around them. So the right number of specialists, new business managers, you know, go out and target new opportunities, sometimes on their own, largely in parallel and in partnership with our teams. And then, you know, as we continue to grow our size and scale the sales force, we've got to make sure we've got the right management team in place as well. And the right number of districts and we add district managers when that makes sense to make sure that, you know, we don't overload our leadership. So all that is embedded in that six percent growth number. Some of those pieces are growing at a slower rate, obviously, than the TMS. But when I think about that, we'll admit single digits. That's really comprehensive of all those roles.

OK, and then maybe as a as a follow up, right. So when you think about and obviously you'll lay this out in June, when you think about, you know, the biggest low hanging fruit, you know, where do you think that is functionally? Right. I don't know if that's productivity. You talked about STEM miles there, you know, as a productivity in the warehouse. And, you know, and as you roll out the day cart, how much do you think you can further improve cases per mile?

Yeah, so the first part of your question, I think we we largely believe the existing long-term plan that we're finishing up this year feel really good about our progress. As we commented previously, I think we had outsized improvement in the first couple of pillars of that, the profit and the growth pillars and largely surprising productivity has lagged since the pandemic. I was pleased with the progress that we made in the back half of the year. However, I think largely that portion of our improvement is still lag the other two areas. And so I see the greatest opportunity for productivity gains largely coming out of supply chain. That's why I get so excited about our flex scheduling, the card platform, despite all the improvement that we've made in routing efficiencies last year with some record cases per mile. There's a lot more to do and we'll get a lot of benefit once we get the cart spread across the country here. So a lot more work to do in all those areas, John, but I would say productivity is the one area we're ramping up most aggressively.

Okay, thank you. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Slagle with Jeffries. Please go ahead.

Yeah, I was going to ask sort of along the same lines. I mean, the longer term opportunities around flex scheduling. I mean, now, I guess more than half the locations. It just seems like you've gotten productivity levels mostly back to pre-COVID levels and sort of normalizing levels of turnover and overtime. But improvements lately in turnover and safety over time all suggest there could be a good bit more room to go beyond just getting back to historical levels of all that. And just is that accurate and just a little bit more on a sense of kind of where it could go generally even before you can consider other things like automation and whatnot?

I think generally Alex, you're thinking about it. You're thinking about it right. I think there's a lot more runway there and as excited as I am about flex scheduling and my comments and the prepared remarks there said we've seen outsized improvement in our pilot market. So even where we've expanded it, expanded it across the half of our markets, we haven't yet gotten the productivity uplift that we've seen in the pilot and it just takes time, right? It takes a local team time to work in the new operating model as well as our associates and we expect continued productivity gains there over time. So we'll have a lot more to say about long-term productivity targets in June, but just suffice it to say, you know, we're excited about the work. We think we're working on the right areas of improvement to drive the focus for the company going forward. And, you know, I'm bullish of our ability to continue to lean in and drive productivity.

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Saleh with BTIG. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks for taking the question and congrats on a strong finish to the year. I didn't want to come back and talk about the compensation for the sales force. You mentioned, you know, several changes, variable compensation, more variable focus on private label targets and removing the cap on compensation. Dave, I think you also mentioned this was well received. I'm just curious, have you seen any attrition as this has gone into place? Are you expecting any attrition from the sales force in 2024 as these changes go into place?

So the out of the gate answer is no, we haven't seen any and nor do I expect any. I think our team did a very good job, you know, preparing for this rollout. We had a thoughtful approach to that. Anytime you make change, even if it's positive, you've got to change management process, you've got to lead through and that starts with robust communications. We did a very nice job of that starting actually very early in the fall last year. So we had plenty of time to not only give our sales team a heads up, but kind of model their compensation in the old model and the new model so they could see what that looked like and importantly understand what actions, if any, they had to take differently to maintain or actually increase their compensation. So as we got further and closer to that date, you know, what we saw was our sellers got excited about it because they see the opportunity to make more money lined up with what we've done here. So, you know, I don't expect any attrition from this with something that we look at very closely all the time every week, as you would expect, and we haven't yet seen anything nor do I expect to.

Great. And then just on Moxie, I believe he has mentioned 50% of national chains now on Moxie and I think last quarter we were somewhere in the 30% range, a pretty sizable step up. Can you just talk about how, how or what you're seeing in terms of behavior change as more and more of these chains are on this platform? Are you seeing increased case count? Just just trying to understand the behavior change post this implementation.

Yeah, I think it's actually a little early on the national side to, you know, to see anything significant change yet. We're still in the ramp up phase. We're pleased the customers are liking it and embracing it. Similar to they have the way they have an independent restaurants. And remember, you know, what we said that's going on in independence is that those customers are buying and they're sticking. They stick with us longer. We would expect to see those same sort of benefits through the course of time in the national area, just like we have an independence.

Great. Thank you very much.

Your next question comes from the line of Jake Barlett with truest securities. Please go

ahead. Great. Great. Thanks for taking the question. My first was on product cost and inflation and we gave the guidance of 0.5 to 1.5. You're flat in the fourth quarter. Looking back, I think you're actually it was positive in October. My notes are right. So looks like it decelerated. And so my question is just about the cadence. What do you expect? You expect to start the first quarter out with deflation and going to inflation. Just help us out on the cadence there. And it's going to be a problem.

So, I would expect us to see inflation. We saw inflation in the fourth quarter. Actually, in January, we saw some modest inflation again, likely increasing as the year goes on. And just, I think the overall message embedded within that range is we're not assuming strong levels of inflation throughout the year. That's not that different than the last couple of years. We've tried to be a little more conservative and drive more of our results through our overall things that we control within our business. But inflation through probably most of the period.

Got it. So the comment of flat was, I guess, for the year as a whole. So another question on just your confidence on continuing to drive gross profits per case in 24. You mentioned there's still 40% of your vendors you're talking with. You have some modest inflation. But if you could just talk about what kind of gross profit per case increase you expect, what's embedded in, and maybe how much of that 40% that you think you're going to be able to hit in 24 and drive that forward.

Maybe just back to your deflation question. So the reason we talked about essentially flat, I think it was 15 basis points or so of inflation in the quarter. So very, very low level, but it was importantly a positive. So we're not going to talk about specifically within the per case increases. I think the important thing, though, is if you look at really the last three years, we've continued to drive gross profit. And a lot of that's going to come from a lot of the same initiatives that we talked about maturing as well as some additional things coming on board. But in the cost of goods, we do expect to get through the rest of the tail this year. And there are some other activities that we will be doing in the cost of goods. The thing that we continue to have an advantage versus a lot of others is our with our rate of growth and especially our rate of growth with our target customer types. So we, as we partner with vendors, we're bringing them growth in these customer types that they can have more influence in. So we think that's a great win win opportunity. And then as we get some of those savings, we can again make sure we're priced fairly with our customers. We're going to continue on things like managed cases within logistics. And then at the same time on OpEx really striving through our efficiency, whether it's supply chain Dave talked about the indirect and other to mitigate most of the cost inflation. That we see so, therefore, expecting the G. P. per case growth to continue to pull through that message from us of even that growth coming from a combo of profitable growth and margin expansion. You're going to continue to hear us feed that drum. We think that's important and that's a healthy way to continue to grow over time.

Great.

Your next question comes from the line of Edward Kelly with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Hi, everyone. Nice quarter. I wanted to ask you first about M&A. You know, you tuck in strategy is ramping nicely. You'll get two points of case growth from M&A in 24. Can you talk about the quality of the business you're taking on from a margin standpoint? And then how does the pipeline look like moving forward? And is the contribution that you'll see in 24, is that a good placeholder for the run rate? You know, as we think about this over time.

Yeah, we're excited about what we've done in M&A and then certainly the latest one we talked about here this morning with IWC. And as we said, the majority of their business is in the independent space, which is, you know, fits right in our wheelhouse. Exactly the type of strategy we want to deploy. And IWC in particular, I didn't say this on the call, but, you know, we're serving that market today, but we're coming from through two other distribution centers that are probably three hours away from the market. So we're not getting there very efficiently. So in all three of the acquisitions, they've solved that problem for us and have the right mix of business to help us to continue to drive growth with that platform. So we're pleased with it. These are accretive. They make great sense. We're not overpaying for these acquisitions. And, you know, to the last part of your question, M&A is hard to predict. We don't know when deals are coming to the market. We've been opportunistic on all three of these. We will continue to be, but, you know, I'd be hard pressed to predict how the rest of the year may or may not play out. But what you're seeing us do is drive these tuck-ins in a way that just makes absolute sense for our business over the long haul. And that's what we'll continue to look for. We think there's still opportunities out there.

Great. And this is a follow-up, I guess, for Derek. Gross profit per case this quarter, Derek, was up a lot less than what it's been year over year. And I think there are some year-end sort of like, you know, some year-end timing stuff. Maybe could you talk about that? And then as we think about 2024, how do you think about the relationship of, you know, GP per case versus OPEX per case in terms of how you grow? You know, even the OPEX per case, you know, OPEX per case this quarter was actually down a little bit. I'm just kind of curious as to how you think about that, you know, relationship in 2024 as well.

Sure. Well, as you pointed out for the fourth quarter, not a real surprise. We've talked about this for the last few quarters, that you can have different cadence things that play out. And in gross profit, you're right, it's still stayed at a very strong level that we've been at the last couple of quarters. So we're pleased, and I think that demonstrates also, again, that the benefits are coming and the durability from the things that we're doing as opposed to whether it's inflation or deflation. And you're right. So we talked about that a year ago. There were a few benefits that hit in the fourth quarter that over the course of this year, we've recognized them over the year. So nothing really new or beyond that. As we go into 2024, again, less about the specific number, but we are very focused on continuing to grow gross profit faster than we do OPEX. And we believe we have a lot of opportunity. And I'll just come back to my comment on the durability. Why we think that the gross profit that we've continued to grow year after year after year through the actions that we're driving from our initiatives that we think there's still a runway there over the course of 2024. So not going to give you the magnitude, but clearly we do expect that to grow faster than OPEX.

Great. Thanks, guys.

The next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you very much. Two questions. The first one just on the adjusted EBITDA. Dave, I think you mentioned or maybe you gave a little teaser ahead of the June investor day. But you thought you'd grow adjusted EBITDA on the high single digit to low double digit range the next several years. The low double digit was above our expectation. I know consensus is in kind of that 7 to 8 percent range, but I'm just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the biggest driver of that potential growth acceleration. Whether or not it's more from upside to sales or whether you have increasing confidence or greater confidence in the margin opportunity that would allow you to get into that north of single digit range. I'm going to have one follow up.

Well, first of all, I'll say we'll say a lot more about all that, Jeff, in June. But having said that, I think what you've seen us deliver, particularly in 2023, was a great balance in our P&L. You know, we've got very good top line growth. We're leveraging that quite well based on some of the comments you heard from Dirk in our control of operating expenses. We're leveraging that quite well for the P&L. And so that model is working quite well for us. I'm excited about our top line growth. We're investing in the right areas, both to drive top line growth and continue to drive productivity and efficiency in the business. And I think that will continue for a long time to come. So think balance,

think

just equal opportunity in the top line as well as the leverage areas of GP and expense control.

Understood. And then just to follow up, only because you talked about the very strong EBITDA margin expansion of I think it was 50 plus basis points in 2023. I just think about that expansion in 2024 and longer term. And they talked about supply chain being perhaps the lagging factor. But if we assume steady increases kind of in the theme of what you just said, balanced, or is it more lumpy? I'm just wanting to prioritize the greatest opportunities to drive that EBITDA margin expansion. Thank you.

I think steadier would be a better position on it first. Obviously, every quarter is the same. We think steadier is the right way to think about it. And we've demonstrated that ability to drive that leverage with a couple of pandemic and post years aside for a long time. And so it may not be at the 50 basis point, but we think there's still plenty of room for year after year opportunity for margin expansion.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Pardon with UBS. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks so much for taking the questions. So to start, you guys talked a bit about your expansion of PRONTO and that you're now in 35 markets today. When you guys add PRONTO to a new market, is the vast majority of independent case gross lift captured in year one? Do you see much of a waterfall benefit there? And then just more broadly speaking, what inning do you think you're in for this initiative before it hits maturity?

Great question. We're excited about PRONTO where we've penetrated the market with that. We see a great uplift in independent growth, particularly with new customers there. And that comes fairly early. It gives us an additional tool in our toolkit to serve as customers, particularly in those dense geographies where it's hard to get to or they may need more frequent deliveries than we do with our larger deliveries. You know, I would say we're not mature in that yet, but we've got five more markets we're going to penetrate this year. I will say that not all markets are ripe for PRONTO, particularly those larger dense geography markets make the most sense. We still have plenty of opportunity there. And I'd be remiss to not reiterate that we see plenty of growth where we've already penetrated the market with PRONTO and continue to add new trucks and capabilities there where we've had success. So I see probably an equal balance for new market penetration as well as existing market growth.

Got it. That's helpful. And then as a follow up, how are you guys thinking about the labor environment in the year ahead? You gave some really helpful color about the recent strike. Your largest competitors had a few of these as well in recent years. Has there been any underlying changes here or do you see it just being more or less of an isolated issue?

Yeah, we see it as an isolated issue. We pride ourselves on having very strong relations with our associates, whether they're represented or not. We've got a long history of reaching positive win-win outcomes with our labor unions across the country. We had a disruption and as I said, we were well prepared for it. We got through it in a few weeks and settled largely on the offer that we put forward at the end of last year. So those things come and go over time. You don't expect them to happen, but you need to be planned and ready for it. And we were. We've got a number, just like we do every year, we've got a number of new agreements that are up for negotiations this year and we expect those to go well. Makes sense.

Thanks so much. Good luck.

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of John Ivan Cole with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Hi, thank you. Maybe your fourth quarter results in your overall 23 results speak to this, but you just wanted to get a sense of the underlying health of the independent restaurant segment. There has been, I think, some debate or discussion in terms of whether this is actually still a growing industry and the fundamentals are still positive for independent restaurants to put new capital in the ground and for them to get new capital in the ground as we kind of think about 24 into 25. I think that's a good point to add, but let's just focus on 24. So, you know, as you talk to your territory managers, what are they telling you about this important addressable customer set? Are they seeing even more sales opportunities out there relative to what you're currently serving? Thanks.

Yeah, they are. They are excited about it. I'm excited about it. I think the healthy operator is really strong. I think there's been a nice recovery since the pandemic in terms of actual units that have come back online or new restaurants. But importantly, you know, the thing that I always tell our team, even given the health of the industry is going to ebb and flow. We think it's very robust right now. But, you know, we have ample share gain opportunities, regardless of what's going on with the macro. And let's stay focused on the things we can control. Our model works, our team-based selling model works. We have great products and services for our customers. And, you know, let's not look left or right. Let's just stay focused on running our plays that are working. And I think we've got a long runway of growth ahead of us.

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, press star one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Wolf with CL King. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning, Dave. You know, you consistently, you know, kind of emphasize worker safety, almost like a mantra. That's kind of wondering, you know, given your experience, you know, not just in this industry, but others, you know, is there a correlation between, you know, improved safety and, you know, other key metrics across the enterprise more broadly, you know, productivity, on time, etc. I mean, I, you know, I'm just trying to get to the bottom of, you know, why you lead with worker safety.

Well, the reason I lead with it is it's the right thing to do for our associates and for our company. And I say this all the time to our team, Andy. You know, if we can't keep our people safe working for us every day, then nothing else we're going to accomplish matters. I'm that passionate about it. And when I got here, we didn't have actually the focus I felt we needed on safety. And that's why I'm so excited about our 23% improvement last year. We will continue to focus on it because it's the right thing. I haven't said that to your to your question. Yes, I think safety performance is a good indicator of overall operating discipline that you have in areas like quality, productivity, how you think about the customer. I used to get I worked in DuPont for 20 years. You might remember, and I used to be able to walk into an operation and just observe and look around. And if I saw a good housekeeping and safety behavior, you can kind of get a good sense for how that operation was run. You know, top to bottom. So it's the right thing for our people. It's the right thing for our company and for our business. And we'll stay focused on

it. Okay, that's, you know, it's good color. Appreciate it. And just the last follow up on this on the sales compensation changes. You've had a bunch of questions, but do you think, you know, having an uncapped compensation can help you recruit better or territory managers? Is there a recruitment advantage to that or more

of

a.

I think there will be. That's not really the driver of it. But I think, you know, folks coming in from the outside that are hungry, great salespeople, and we tell them that that's the way the office structure. I think that will be a real benefit. You just want to send our folks in the right way to drive as much profitable growth as they can for themselves. And for the company, and we thought that made sense.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you. I will now turn the call back over to Dave Fletman for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Thank you and thank you all for joining us today. We have very strong momentum in our business. We're excited about the future. We look forward to seeing all of you on June 5th. We'll talk before then. Have a great rest of the week.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining and you may now disconnect your lines.