Valaris Limited

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Valeris third quarter 2025 results conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, press star and then one on your touch-tone phones. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. Please also note today's event is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference call over to Nick Georges, President, Treasurer, and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Welcome, everyone, to the Volaris Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call. With me today are President and CEO Anton Divovits, Senior Vice President and CFO Chris Weber, Senior Vice President and CCO Matt Line, and other members of our Executive Management team. We issued our press release which is available on our website at Volaris.com. Any comments we make today about expectations are forward-looking statements and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Please refer to our press release and SEC filings on our website that define forward-looking statements and list risk factors and other events that could impact future results. Also, please note that the company undertakes no duty to update forward-looking statements. During this call, we will refer to GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the press release on our website for additional information and required reconciliations. Last week, we issued our most recent fleet status report, which provides details on our rig fleet, including new contract awards. Now, I'll turn the call over to Anton Dibovitz, President and CEO.

Thanks, Nick, and good morning and afternoon to everyone. I'll begin today's call with a summary of our third quarter performance and highlight our recent commercial achievements. I'll then provide an update on the offshore drilling market before discussing how our continued focus on operational excellence, commercial execution, and disciplined cost and fleet management is driving long-term value for shareholders. I'll then turn the call over to Matt, who will provide additional detail on our contracting activity and the broader floater and jack-up markets. After that, Chris will walk through our financial results and guidance, and I'll finish with a few closing remarks. To begin, I want to highlight a few key points. First, I want to thank the entire Valaris team for continuing to deliver safe and efficient operations. This solid operational performance contributed to another strong quarter of financial results, with meaningful EBITDA and free cash flow generation. Second, we continue to execute our commercial strategy, having recently secured an attractive contract for Valeris DS12 with BP Offshore Egypt. With this award, all four of our drill ships with near-term availability are now contracted for work beginning next year. Third, despite near-term commodity price uncertainty, demand for offshore drilling services is developing as we expected. We continue to see a robust pipeline of deep-order opportunities for our high-specification fleet, and we are in advanced customer discussions for our drill ships scheduled to complete contracts in the second half of 2026. In summary, we remain focused on delivering outstanding operational performance, executing on our commercial strategy, and prudently managing our costs and fleet. By staying disciplined and focused on these priorities, Valaris is well positioned to deliver long-term value for our shareholders. Moving to operations, delivering safe and efficient operations is always our top priority. It protects our people, strengthens relationships with our customers, and serves as the foundation for everything we do. Our teams once again delivered solid operational performance, achieving fleet-wide revenue efficiency of 95% in the third quarter. This execution helped deliver another quarter of strong financial results, including adjusted EBITDA of $163 million and adjusted free cash flow of $237 million. In addition, we repurchased $75 million of shares during the quarter, demonstrating our commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Several rigs reached notable safety milestones during the quarter. Valera Stavanger marked an impressive four years recordable free, a remarkable achievement that reflects the crew's commitment to safety and the strength of their leadership. In addition, seven other rigs, Floater's Valaris DS-12, DS-18, and DPS-1, along with Jacob's Valaris 92, 123, 247, and 249, each achieved one-year recordable free. Congratulations to all involved on these outstanding results. We were also proud to be recognized by the Center for Offshore Safety for the third consecutive year. most recently for our Video After Action Review initiative, reflecting both the strength of our safety culture and our commitment to continuous improvement through innovation. We continue to execute our commercial strategy. This is supported by our solid operational performance since many of our recent contract awards have come from existing customers, reflecting the strength of our relationships and the confidence they place in us to deliver safe and efficient operations. A great example is our recent contract for Valaris DS12, which will return to Egypt with BP, building on our previous campaign that included drilling the successful El-King II and El-Fayoum V exploration wells earlier this year. Egypt continues to make meaningful progress in attracting investment from IOCs, with several majors awarded offshore acreage in a licensing round earlier this year. Valeris has a long and successful history operating offshore Egypt, spanning roughly two decades of drilling programs, including seven years for BP. We're excited about this upcoming campaign and the prospect for continued activity offshore Egypt in the years ahead. At the start of the year, we outlined our commercial focus on securing attractive contracts to bookend the white space for our drill ships with near-term availability. and we have accomplished this objective as these four rigs are now contracted for work beginning next year. This is a fantastic achievement by our commercial team and everyone across the organization who played a role in making it happen. Turning now to the broader macro environment in the offshore drilling market. The long-term outlook for our industry is becoming increasingly constructive. There is a growing consensus that today's near-term oil supply surplus will give way to a structurally tighter market later in the decade as a result of historic underinvestment and slowing non-OPEC production growth. Our customers continue to emphasize the need for sustained investment in oil and gas, particularly in offshore developments that provide secure, reliable, and affordable energy supply. The IEA recently highlighted that nearly 90% of global upstream spending is required just to offset natural fuel declines, underscoring how much investment is needed to simply maintain existing production. Without continued investment, the IEA estimates global oil production would fall by 8% per year on average over the next decade, equivalent to losing more than the annual output of Brazil and Norway each year over the same time frame. Demand for offshore drilling continues to unfold as we expected, with customers increasingly looking to offshore projects, particularly deepwater, which offers large, accessible resource potential, compelling project economics, and comparatively lower carbon emissions to meet future energy needs. Even with some near-term commodity price uncertainty, customers are moving forward with long-cycle offshore developments, and we anticipate meaningful growth in deepwater project sanctioning over the next few years as customers pursue greenfield and brownfield developments, as well as exploration. Importantly, most of these projects are expected to be economically viable well below current oil prices. According to Restat, approximately 70% of deep water spending expected to be sanctioned over the next three years is tied to programs with break-even prices below $50 per barrel, compared to a five-year forward price above $65 per barrel. This reinforces our expectation that the floater opportunities we've been tracking will continue converting to contracts and, based on our ongoing conversations with customers, we anticipate additional awards for Valeris and the broader industry in the coming months. We continue to expect that utilization for the global drill ship fleet will trough late this year or early next year, before improving in the second half of 2026 as rigs begin new contracts. And we anticipate 7th generation drill ships will exit 2026 with utilization levels around 90%. Customers continue to prefer the most technically capable and efficient assets, which aligns well with our high-specification drill ship fleet, with 12 of our 13 ships being 7th generation units, the highest concentration in the industry. 7th generation drill ships have historically enjoyed a utilization and day rate advantage, and we expect this trend will continue. We have strategically positioned our assets with customers in basins where we see sustained, long-term demand, and we believe that this targeted commercial approach will allow us to maintain more consistent utilization over time. Turning to jackups, shallow water demand remains robust, with global utilization around 90%, driven primarily by national oil companies focused on energy security and infrastructure development. Recently, Sider Ramco has issued notices calling back several suspended rigs to resume operations next year, which we expect will further support the supply and demand balance of the global jackup fleet. Our versatile jackup fleet continues to be a significant and reliable driver of earnings, with EBITDA from the segment increasing year-over-year, driven by more operating days and higher average day rates. This reflects our strategic focus on markets where we hold strong positions, such as our market leading position in the North Sea, in Saudi Arabia through our rigs lease to Arrow, and in niche markets that require high specification assets like Trinidad and Australia. Turning to our broader fleet management strategy, we remain focused on maintaining our high quality and efficient asset base, while prudently managing our costs and fleet. This includes tightly managing expenses between contracts, selling assets when we can achieve attractive prices, and retiring rigs when their expected future economic benefit no longer justifies their associated costs. This focus was recently demonstrated by the highly accretive sale of 27-year-old Jacob Valera's 247, which we closed during the quarter for $108 million in cash. Consistent with our disciplined approach to cost management, following completion of their current programs, we plan to mobilize Valeris MS1 and DPS1 to Malaysia, where we will quickly reduce costs by warm stacking both rigs while we evaluate future opportunities. Before handing over to Matt, I'd like to briefly recap a few key points about the market and our strategy. Our customers continue to highlight the need for ongoing investment in oil and gas, particularly in offshore developments that offer secure, reliable, and affordable energy supply. Demand for offshore drilling is developing as we expected, and customers are increasingly turning to offshore projects to support future energy demand. We're well positioned to continue executing our commercial strategy by securing attractive floater contracts supported by our global scale and high-spec fleet. We're in advanced discussions with customers regarding opportunities for rigs scheduled to complete contracts in the second half of 2026, and we will continue to pursue gap fill programs in the first half of next year. Against this positive backdrop, we remain focused on three strategic priorities, delivering outstanding operational performance, executing our commercial strategy, and prudently managing our costs and fleet. By staying disciplined and focused on these priorities, Valeris is well positioned to deliver long-term value for shareholders. With that, I'll now hand the call over to Matt.

Thanks, Anton, and good morning and afternoon, everyone. I'll begin with a summary of our recent contract awards before providing updates on the major floater and jack-up markets where we operate. Since our second quarter call, we've secured new contracts and extensions, adding nearly $200 million to our contract backlog. and we are in advanced customer discussions on several contract opportunities for both drill ships and jack-ups that we expect to conclude before year-end. Starting with drill ships, year-to-date, we've added approximately $1.4 billion of backlog for our drill ship fleet, representing nine years of total contract duration. Most recently, we've secured a five-well contract for Volaris DS12 with BP Offshore Egypt, The contract is expected to commence in mid-second quarter 2026, with an estimated duration of 350 days and a total contract value of approximately $140 million. The contract also includes three option wells, which could extend the program to more than two years in total duration. Turning to jackups, we have secured more than 500 days of additional work in the North Sea. including contract extensions for the Volaris Norway 121 and 122, as well as a four-month program for the 248, which helps bridge most of the gap between the SPS and the start of the next program in 2026. Complete-wide, we've added over $2.2 billion in contracted revenue backlog year-to-date, significantly enhancing our contract coverage for 2026 and beyond. and current total backlog stands at $4.5 billion. Turning now to the major floater and jack-up regions where we operate. Consistent with last quarter, we are tracking more than 30 longer-term floater opportunities with planned start dates in 2026 and 2027, each with durations of a year or more. We continue to see programs we are tracking progress through the commercial process, with long-term contracts typically awarded at least nine months before their planned commencement. we expect to see further awards both for Volaris and our peers before year-end. Offshore Africa, including West Africa, East Africa, and the Mediterranean, remains the most active region for future floater demand, representing roughly half of the long-term opportunities in our pipeline. Starting with Egypt, the country is experiencing declining output from mature fields and views new offshore exploration and development as key to satisfy growing domestic demand. The government has made meaningful progress attracting IOC investment, with several majors awarded offshore blocks in a licensing round earlier this year. And we look forward to continuing our long history of operations offshore Egypt in the years ahead. Elsewhere in the Mediterranean, Cyprus is a potential bright spot, with exploration and development programs anticipated in 2026 and 2027. Angola is facing a similar situation to Egypt, with production from mature fields declining, resulting in total production recently dropping below 1 million barrels per day for only the second time this decade. The Angolan government is focused on stabilizing production above this level by incentivizing both new exploration and brownfield development. We currently have the Volaris DS7 and DS9 working offshore Angola, with the DS7 currently drilling an exploration well in Block 47 for Azule. Both rigs have delivered strong operational performance, positioning them well for follow-on work when their current contracts expire in the second half of 2026. Elsewhere in West Africa, we expect to see growth offshore Nigeria, with two multi-year programs with IOCs presently in the tendering phase, one of which is expected to be awarded soon. Offshore Ivory Coast, E&I has issued a request for information for a long-term development program at the baling field that is expected to commence in 2027. Similarly, We anticipate incremental demand for Namibia, where Total Energies is expected to tender soon for a long-term development for its Venus project, potentially leading to several years of work for multiple rigs. Other operators are advancing plans for further exploration and potential development programs that could begin within the next couple of years. In Mozambique, ENI recently reached FID on its Coral North project and is tendering for a drill ship to start work in the second half of 2026. Additional tenders for programs starting in 2027 with Total Energies and Exxon are expected in the coming months. Volaris has a long and successful track record offshore Africa. and we expect development activity around the continent will be the main driver of incremental floater demand over the next few years. With five of our high-specification drill ships now contracted around the continent, we are well positioned to benefit from this growth. Moving to Brazil, we continue to expect that Petrobras' rig count remains stable. Petrobras also recently received an environmental license to drill an exploration well in the equatorial margin, an important step toward potential future development activity in this region, which lies adjacent to the prolific offshore basins of Guyana and Suriname. Beyond Petrobras, we also see opportunities with IOCs in Brazil, including Shell's ORCA project, formerly known as Gato do Mato, which is nearing award, In addition, we expect that BP's Boomerangie discovery, which was drilled by Velaris DS15, will lead to future appraisal and development activity. Overall, we continue to see solid floater demand offshore Brazil and expect it remains the largest market for deepwater rigs. In the U.S. Gulf, customer demand remains healthy. with several term extensions announced by our peers following the long-term Oxy contracts for Volaris DS16 and DS18 that we announced in July. We were pleased to have secured these contracts as they provided five years of backlog, solidified our presence in the region, and deepened our relationship with Oxy, who is a major leaseholder in the U.S. Gulf. We expect this market to remain fairly balanced, with demand largely met by the existing supply of the rigs in the region. Outside of the Golden Triangle, we are tracking requirements for seven drill ships offshore India, Southeast Asia and Australia, representing more than 10 years of firm demand. This activity could draw additional supply away from the Golden Triangle, as recently occurred with a drill ship mobilizing to Indonesia after completing work offshore West Africa. Polaris MS1 and DPS1 are scheduled to complete contracts offshore Australia during the fourth quarter. We currently see no new work for these rigs in 2026, but continue to have discussions about potential opportunities in 2027 and beyond. In line with our disciplined fleet management approach, we plan to mobilize both rigs to Malaysia to be warm stacked while we evaluate these opportunities. Turning to jackups, current global marketed utilization remains steady at around 90%. We have strong and focused presence in strategic shallow water markets. This has helped us to achieve industry-leading contract coverage on our Jacob fleet, with nearly 80% of available days of our active rigs contracted for 2026 and more than 60% contracted for 2027. In benign environments, we have open availability in 2026 for just two rigs, Volaris 106 in Indonesia and Volaris 107 in Australia. We are in advanced customer discussions for both rigs and expect to secure additional work soon. In the North Sea, recent awards have enhanced our contract coverage. We now have availability on just two of our jackups in the region during the first half of next year, and we are tracking a number of short-term opportunities that line up well with our limited availability during this time. Looking further ahead, we anticipate demand improves across the region in the second half of 2026 and into 2027. In the UK, we see a range of opportunities that include gas drilling, plug-in abandonment work, new energy and infrastructure projects, and we anticipate supply will largely meet demand. We expect activity in the Dutch sector will remain steady, keeping four rigs busy, and we see opportunities in Denmark for up to two rigs during 2026, representing an uptick in activity given no rigs are currently operating there. Our strong operational track record and long-standing customer relationships have supported our best-in-class utilization in the region over the past few years, and we continue to see multiple opportunities well-suited for our rigs with availability in 2026. In summary, we are successfully executing our commercial strategy, having secured more than $2.2 billion in new backlog so far this year. We continue to engage constructively with customers on future programs, and our focus remains on building backlog through attractive contracts that will further strengthen our earnings and cash flow. I'll now hand the call over to Chris, who will take you through the financials.

Thanks Matt, and good morning and afternoon everyone. In my prepared remarks today, I'll begin with an overview of our third quarter results, followed by our outlook for the fourth quarter. Starting with our third quarter results, total revenues were $596 million compared to $615 million in the prior quarter, primarily due to fewer operating days for our floater fleet as Drill Ships Valeris DS-15 and DS-18 completed contracts midway through the third quarter without immediate follow-on work. In addition, Jackup Valeris 247 completed its contract in late July and was sold in August. These items are partially offset by more operating days for several rigs in the Jackup fleet. Adjusted EBITDA was $163 million compared to $201 million in the prior quarter. The decrease was primarily due to fewer operating days for our floater fleet and the $24 million non-recurring benefit we recognized in the second quarter from a previously disclosed favorable arbitration outcome. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA exceeded our guidance range of $120 to $140 million, primarily due to certain contracts running longer than previously anticipated, higher revenues from aero leased rigs, and lower support costs. Third quarter CapEx totaled $70 million, coming in below guidance due to timing, as certain project spend has shifted to the fourth quarter. During the quarter, we generated $198 million of cash flow from operations and received just over $100 million in net proceeds from the sale of Alaris 247. After deducting capital expenditures, this resulted in $237 million of adjusted free cash flow. We repurchased $75 million of shares in the third quarter at an average price of $49 per share. We ended the quarter with $676 million of cash and cash equivalents. Moving now to our fourth quarter outlook, we expect total revenues in the range of $495 to $515 million, down from $596 million in the third quarter. The anticipated decrease is primarily due to fewer operating days across the fleet. Within our floater fleet, drillships Valeris DS-15 and DS-18 are currently idle after completing contracts during the third quarter. And semi-submersibles Valeris DPS-1 and MS-1 are both expected to complete contracts offshore Australia before year end. For our jackup fleet, Valeris 247 was sold during the third quarter and Valeris 120 and 248 are expected to have fewer operating days due to a mobilization between jobs for the 120 and out of service time for the 248's SPS. We also expect lower revenues from aero leased rigs as Valeris 116 and 250 begin shipyard projects. We expect contract drilling expense of $390 to $405 million compared to $406 million in the third quarter. The decrease is primarily due to cost reduction on rigs that have completed contracts without immediate follow-on work. Both revenue and contract drilling expense in the fourth quarter are expected to include $25 to $30 million of reimbursable items. We anticipate G&A expense will be approximately $27 million, in line with the prior quarter as we continue to prudently manage our cost structure. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $70 to $90 million. Finally, we expect CapEx of $145 to $165 million, which is higher than prior quarters due to certain project spend shifting from earlier in the year. The midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance implies expected full-year adjusted EBITDA of approximately $625 million, which is roughly $40 million above the midpoint of guidance we provided on our second quarter call. This increase is primarily due to our outperformance in the third quarter, as well as an expected improvement in our fourth quarter outlook, mostly driven by more operating days for the jack-up fleet. The midpoint of our fourth quarter CapEx guidance implies expected full-year CapEx of approximately $390 million, roughly in line with the midpoint of our prior guidance. As a reminder, we expect to receive approximately $70 million in upfront payments from customers this year to reimburse certain contract-specific upgrades. This concludes my review of our financial results and guidance. I'll now hand the call back to Anton for some closing remarks. Thanks, Chris.

Before we open the line for questions, I'd like to recap a few key points from today's prepared remarks. First, I want to reiterate my appreciation to the entire Volaris team for continuing to deliver safe and efficient operations, which contributed to another strong quarter of financial results with meaningful EBITDA and free cash flow generation. We continue to execute our commercial strategy, and as a result, all four of our drill ships with near-term availability are now contracted for work beginning next year. Third, demand for offshore drilling services is developing as we expected. We continue to see a robust pipeline of deepwater opportunities for our high-specification fleet, and we're in advanced customer discussions for our drill ships scheduled to complete contracts in the second half of 2026. In summary, we continue to focus on delivering outstanding operational performance, executing our commercial strategy, and prudently managing our costs and fleet. By staying disciplined and focused on these priorities, Valeris is well positioned to deliver long-term value for shareholders. We thank our employees for their focus and dedication, and our customers and investors for their continued support. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star and then one on your touch-tone phones. If you are using a speakerphone, we do ask that you please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. Once again, that is star and then one to ask a question. We'll pause momentarily to assemble the roster. And our first question today comes from Scott Gruber from Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.

Good morning.

Good morning, Scott.

Good morning. So it's good to see the purchases this quarter. I'm curious about your appetite moving forward. Looking at consensus, you know, there isn't a forecast for much free cash next year as we transition to better times. We do have $660 million of cash on the balance sheet. Can you speak to you know, an appetite to use that cash to buy back, you know, additional shares now, you know, ahead of, you know, the potential recovery in late 26 and 27?

Yes, Scott. This is Chris. You know, one, you know, we remain committed to returning capital to shareholders. You know, we executed the $75 million of repurchases in the quarter. We're excited about that. It reflects our confidence in the market and the outlook. But we've always said that, you know, our repurchases aren't necessarily going to be linear, not in a straight line, and we're going to be opportunistic. And that's what you saw this quarter. You know, as we move forward, you know, we'll see how the year progresses, what flexibility that provides for additional share repurchases. But, you know, excited what we were able to execute this quarter.

What's your level of cash, you know, that you need to run the business? What's kind of a minimum cash balance for working capital purposes?

I mean, from a minimum cash perspective, I would say around $200 million to run the business. And where we hold cash, you know, in excess of that is just really with regards to kind of what are we seeing in the market, you know, what's the cash flow profile of our business going forward and those sort of things.

Great. I think one more, and there's been a discussion around renewed appetite for exploration and on various conference calls on Discord. Just wondering your perspective, you know, in your conversations with customers, is there a tangible desire to increase exploration activity here in the years ahead of those conversations material? Is it kind of a side conversation at this point?

This is Anton. I'll take it. Look, there's always some exploration going on. You know, even in a lot of development programs that we've been drilling historically, customers will slot in an exploration well here or there. But, you know, we do see an increase in exploration discussions. And that's based on necessity. You know, the consensus is that. We're going to need additional developments in order to meet the world's energy needs as we head towards the end of the decade. And in order to get those developments, our customers need to explore. So, I think it's a simple cause and effect. I think it's great for the market that there is additional exploration or increase in exploration activity expected from the various prognosticators in the market, also from the discussions we're having with our customers. And I think it portends well for where the market's going.

That's great. I appreciate the color, Anton. I'll turn it back.

Our next question comes from Greg Lewis from BTIG. Please go ahead with your question.

Yeah, hi. Thank you, and good morning, everybody, and thanks for taking my question. Anton, you know, I was hoping you could elaborate maybe a little bit more on Scott's question about shareholder returns. You know, we saw the sale of the rig. That was obviously a nice profit. Cash flow was pretty good. really good. Is there any kind of way to think about, you know, you're going to have opportunities to sell rigs, some of the non-core rigs in the future? You know, balance sheet's obviously strong. Is that kind of a mechanism? Should we think about asset sales as a mechanism to drive some of this return of cash to shareholders? Or is it, you know, going to be more focused on the operations of the business or maybe a little bit of both?

Look, I'd start – it's going to be focused on the operations of the business. I mean, I want to first take a step back and say we are committed to returning our free cash flow, sustained free cash flow to shareholders unless there's clearly a better or more creative use for it. I think we've demonstrated that. You know, part of cost and discipline and fleet management comes to when there are opportunities like we had with the 247, a 27-year-old rig, and we can get, you know, a highly attractive price for it. It makes sense for us to divest that asset, and that obviously increases our financial flexibility. At its base, our capital return needs to be driven by delivering operational cash flow. We're all working through this white space period. So, you know, Chris was asked the question before, when we understand and have these rigs and we fully expect that our 10 active ships will be all working, exiting 26 under contract that will, again, you know, underwrite our ability and flexibility as far as it comes to capital return. So, you know, in summary, let me take a step back and just summarize. You know, it needs to be driven by operational, you know, delivery of operations and sustained earnings and, you know, the ability to sell assets when there are attractive opportunities is just opportunistic over and above that.

Okay, great. And then the other question I had was around some of the recent term deals you did that have that MPD, additional services. Kind of curious, it seems like the market ebbs and flows between MPD being built into the price versus MPD being kind of like a menu item. In the event that it's a menu item... Is there any way to kind of, knowing that every well is different, every customer is different, is there any kind of rough estimate how we should be thinking about how much of the time maybe, if there is NPD as an add-on service, how much of the time should we be thinking about that service being used?

It's very, I'd love to give you an easy answer, but it is very, very customer dependent. It depends what sort of drilling they're doing. So it is, you know, contract specific, you know, well specific, you know, is it a development? So it's hard to math on if you want to.

Yeah, I think Anton hit the nail on the head that each customer is so different, so there's no large rule. But I think you can assume if you're just running general analysis, somewhere between 40% to 50% utilization.

Perfect. Super helpful. Thank you very much.

Our next question comes from Eddie Kim from Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.

Hi, good morning. Just a bigger picture question here. You reiterated your expectation for seventh gen drill ships exiting 2026 at utilization around 90%. At the same time, we have seen a few day rates below 400,000 a day that the DS-12 included in that, though I know that Egypt is a lower optics environment for you guys, but some Some investor concern around maybe some more day rate prints below 400,000. First, do you think those are coming? And second, how is that impacting your view on activity inflection higher in the back part of next year? It seems that it isn't, but just wanted to get your thoughts and your confidence level around that.

Okay, a few questions in there. I think this is how I describe it. You know, we believe the market is playing out as we expected. I think that day rates for high-spec ships have largely cropped in the high 300s, kind of low to mid 400 range. You know, as an industry, we're walking through a period of white space, and then the number of tenders that are in progress right now, and you'll probably see some additional tenders prints contract awards in that range as those contracts work through the tender process. But we continue to expect that utilization will trough towards the end of this year, early next year, you know, and then a recovery beyond that, exiting as an industry, you know, high-spec ships as or above 90% at the end of 26, and inevitably, day rates follow utilization. But, you know, for now, I think day rates have cropped as we see it for this cycle in the kind of high 300s, low to mid 400 range.

Great. Great. Thanks for that. My follow-up is just on your rigs coming off contract next year. You have absorbed a lot of white space with your recent contract award. But the DS9 and the DS7 contracts, far off contract mid to late next year, both in Angola. Based on your constructive outlook in Angola and West Africa in general, it feels like it's likely that those could get extended without any idle time between contracts. Just any thoughts there? And then And it's definitely DS-15, DS-18 have long-term contracts starting end of next year, but are idle today. What's the likelihood that you'll be able to secure some short-term gap fill work for those before long-term contracts commence? Thank you.

Matt, do you want to start on the gap fill and then I'll come across as how we use it?

Sure. I mean, I think, well, first off, Angola on the, And Gola, on the 9 and the 7, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, you're seeing a decrease in production. So I think the government's working closely with the IOCs to incentivize drilling. So I think your read is right that we see positive discussions regarding the future contracting opportunities for those rigs, and equally they have performed extremely well, which just further benefits the likelihood that they'll – that they'll have strong potential for extensions. From a gap fill perspective, you know, we've done a great job of bookending the near-term availability on our assets. And while there are some short-term opportunities available in the market, probably not enough to fill all the rigs that have white space right now, but we continue to chase work that fits the longer-term opportunities that we've secured.

I think Matt covered it well. You know, our expectation is that high-spec rigs will exit 26, you know, 90% plus utilization. Our team has done a fantastic job of delivering our commercial strategy to date, and I expect them to continue to do that. No pressure, Matt. But we expect that all 10 of our active drill ships will exit 26 on contract and working.

Great. Great to hear. Thank you both. I'll turn it back.

Our next question comes from Doug Becker from Capital One. Please go ahead with your question.

Thank you. Valaris has a couple of rigs with Petrobras in Brazil. I wanted to get a sense for the focus of recent discussions with them to help reduce costs. Matt, do you want to?

Sure. I mean, I think it's been widely reported that Petrobras are looking across their entire value supply chain for potential savings in 2026. So while it's early days in discussions amongst all of their services, we've seen these discussions materialize before. So I think what's important is recognizing that they want to maintain their production targets, which means – They are likely to maintain a fleet of similar size over the long term, which is positive for us. And so while constructive discussions continue, it's too soon to kind of discuss the specifics around it. I think Matt said it really well.

We expect Petrobras' rig fleet to remain stable. They have clear goals on what their production, and that's going to mean they need to maintain a significant and the most significant, you know, drill ship fleet in the world. And the discussions are very early days and very, very constructive. So we'll just have to see how it plays out across the industry.

Definitely sounds encouraging. Maybe switching to Saudi Arabia. You mentioned Aramco has issued notices calling back several suspended rigs. It sounds like there's also been a recent tender. Do you think Saudi Arabia is a source of incremental demand, incremental work for Belarus next year?

It's really positive to see Saudi Aramco reactivating and calling back suspended rigs. So I think when you look at a global utilization of the jack-up market hovering around 90%, it just adds further benefit to that market. So we see that as a really positive data point. On incremental demand, there is potential for that, and with some idle capacity sitting over in the Middle East, we continue to monitor that closely together with our joint venture, which operates in Saudi Arabia.

Thank you.

And our next question comes from Josh Jane from Daniel Energy Partners. Please go ahead with your question.

Thanks. Good morning. Those in the market generally seem in unison with respect to recovery in deep water in the second half of 26, and I think the recent contract announcements largely support that. Maybe you could just talk a bit more about where geographically do you have the most confidence that rig counts will hold or increase, and which regions do you see as having potential risk if we're in an uncertain crude environment?

I actually want to give Josh my room. Sure. I mean, I think we touched a few of these and some of the answers already given in the prepared remarks. But I think we largely see South America, Brazil holding flat, maintaining their fleet size, which is also the largest floater market. So that's a very positive sign. Incremental demand in Africa. We've mentioned the FID of ENI's project in Mozambique, and then there's some strong signs of F force majeure being lifted for two other major IOCs with Exxon and ExxonMobil. and Total. So some positive work in East Africa and obviously announcing some work in Egypt with decreasing production there, trying to turn that around is showing some other, some unique opportunities in the Med and West Africa. What we have seen, though, is some rigs shifting locations as well, with Asia carrying a number of opportunities without sufficient supply sitting over there and customers really continuing the trend of focusing on higher spec assets. You could see some migration from the Golden Triangle to service some of the opportunities in Asia.

Okay, thanks. Sorry, let me just go. We'll roughly have to take a step back from that. Roughly half that incremental demand. Big driver of incremental demand will be Africa and Africa in general. You know, there is about 25% of that work coming in from beyond the Golden Triangle and fairly stable in the U.S. Gulf and South America. Yeah.

Great, thanks. And then I wanted to pry just a little bit on Ramco, and Doug hit it with his last question. But I guess what's changed a little bit over the last 18 months is I feel like Saudi has definitely gotten a bit more aggressive with respect to their production goals that they're talking about hitting over the next, you know, 6, 12, 24 months. Maybe you could just offer a little bit more insight, and maybe not into 26, but just longer term, how many rigs do you feel like they ultimately could be adding back over the next three years, just given the volatility that we've seen, and to ultimately meet their lofty production goals? Thanks.

I think what I'd focus on in the recent years news out, people talking about rigs going back to Saudi Aramco, Saudi Aramco's desire to bring rigs back into production is the fact that in the global fleet, high-spec jack-up utilization is 90% above, you know, 90% and above. So the market has held in there. You know, the talk is in the near term kind of mid to high single digits plus potential for additional tenders beyond that. And every rig that goes back into their fleet is further supportive of the global market. So overall, you know, the jack up market, high spec jack up market is fairly healthy. And I think just, you know, to the extent they choose to bring rigs back in order to meet their production targets is just further support for a market that's already attractive.

Understood. Thanks. I'll turn it back.

And, ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll be ending today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Nick Georges for any closing remarks.

Thanks, Jamie, and thank you to everyone on today's call for your interest in Polaris. We look forward to speaking with you again when we report our fourth quarter 2025 results. Have a great rest of your day.

And with that, we'll be concluding today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.