speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Vale's first quarter 2024 earnings call. This conference is being recorded and the replay will be available on our website at vale.com. The presentation is available for download in English and Portuguese from our website. To listen to the call in Portuguese, please press the globe icon on the lower right side of your Zoom screen and then choose to enter the Portuguese room. Then select Mute original audio so that you won't hear the English version in the background. We would like to inform that all participants are currently in a listen-only mode for the presentations. Further instructions will be provided before we begin the question and answer section of our call. We would like to advise that forward-looking statements may be provided in this presentation, including valid expectations about future events or results, encompassing those matters listed in the respective presentation. We caution you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties. To obtain information on factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the report Vale Files with the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission, the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários, and in particular the factors discussed under Forward Looking Statements and Risk Factors in Vale's Annual Report on Form 20-F. With us today are Mr. Eduardo de Sales Bartolomeu, CEO, Mr. Gustavo Pimenta, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations, Mr. Marcelo Spinelli, Executive Vice President, Iron Ore Solutions, Mr. Carlos Medeiros, Executive Vice President of Operations, and Mr. Mark Cutifani, Chairman of Vale Base Metals. Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeu. Sir, you may now begin.

speaker
Eduardo de Sales Bartolomeu
CEO

Thank you and good morning everyone. I'm very excited that we got off to a good start in 2024. Starting with our safety journey, technological enhancements and innovation towards safety improvements is showing encouraging results with 77% reduction in accidents in some critical activities. On dam safety, the Penedi and Dam located in the Vagem Grande complex was removed from the emergency level by the National Mining Agency and is now certified as safe and stable. On our second level, the stabilization of our iron ore operations we are taking Vale to an even higher level of performance. Iron ore production had the highest output for our first quarter since 2019, and sales were up 15% year over year. On our third level, one of Vale's major competitive advantage is our potential to grow a high-quality portfolio with low capital intensity. Our three key projects will add 50 million tons capacity by 2026, Vagem Grande, Capanema, and S11D plus 20. The first project to come online will be Vagem Grande, which is almost 90% completed and on track to start up in the fourth quarter of 2024. On our path to transform the energy transition metal business, copper production grew 22% in the first quarter. Nickel production decreased by 4% year-on-year in line with plan, mainly reflecting maintenance overhaul at the Onsapuma furnace. Outside Brazil, we saw stronger performance in the Canadian and Indonesian operations. On the energy transition metals partnership last week, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States granted the final regulatory approval and we expect to close the transaction in the upcoming weeks. And in our pursuit towards ESG leadership in mining, we reached a remarkable target, 100% renewable energy consumption in Brazil, two years ahead of schedule. Reaching the target means that Vale has zeroed its indirect CO2 emissions in Brazil, which corresponds to scope two emissions. To support our decarbonization pathway, Vale has announced an agreement to acquire the remaining 45% stake in Aliança Energia, which is a first step towards creating an asset light energy platform. Lastly, our discipline in capital allocation remains untouched. We are walking the talk and returning value to shareholders. In March, we paid $2.3 billion in dividends, while completing 17% of the fourth buyback program launched since 2020. Now, let's go over more details of our quarter performance. Next slide, please. We are gradually becoming a safer company. Technology and innovation have been key pillars to our quest to deliver a sustainable safety performance. We want to turn Vale into a safety benchmark, starting with zeroing our N2 injuries, those that usually precede life-changing or fatal events, by the end of 2025. We are on the right track to fulfill this commitment. Our safety transformation program targets the critical activities with the highest N2 records, later developing preventive controls, some of them technology-based like collision alerts and driver drowsiness detection. As a result, we had a 77% reduction in any two events since 2019. Another key element of our safety strategy is our dam safety management. Since 2020, we increased safety conditions up to adequate levels for 16 dams. All our structures are continuously checked by our 24-7 geotechnical monitoring centers. In a conservative approach, we removed 100% of the people from risk areas and backup dams were constructed to reduce potential consequences in those areas. At the same time, Valley continues to progress on the dam decaracterization program, with 43% of the structures eliminated to date. We are already seeing a safer Valley, built with operational discipline and a strong management model. Okay, next slide, please. We delivered a robust operating performance on iron ore in Q1. Production was the highest for our first quarter since 2019, underpinned by increased asset and process reliability, especially at S11D. We have talked about our strong actions toward operational excellence, and we are now consistently bearing the fruits of that strategy. Our operational plan for the quarter was successful in dealing with a higher average rainfall. We delivered a 6% increase in total production and 15% higher sales year on year. Moreover, we continue to de-bottleneck our operations. At S11D, increased geological knowledge enables more accurate mining plans. while the truckless system combined with a mobile mining fleet provides further operating flexibility. Our long-term ability to deal with Jasper Light relies on the installation of the new crushers, as you know. But these surgical measures have allowed us to operate S11D with more efficiency, with the highest production for our first quarter since 2020. The solid production performance in Q1 give us further confidence that we will deliver our guidance as planned. Next slide, please. We are committed to accelerating solutions to support the steel industry's decarbonization. Our briquette plant is ramping up in our Tubarão complex, aiming to deliver around 1.5 million tons of briquettes in 2024. We continue to progress on agreements for the construction of mega hubs. We are also studying the feasibility of developing green industrial hubs in Spain together with Hidron Steel. Finally, we are very proud to be selected under the Inflation Reduction Act funding to enter in negotiations to develop a briquette plant in the U.S. The selection by the U.S. Government Department of Energy represents a critical path for the validation of our proprietary technology and its potential to deliver a transformative solution to decarbonize the steel sector. Iron ore briquettes will contribute to achieving Vale's commitment to reduce 15% of its scope III net emissions by 2035. Next slide, please. In the energy transition metals business, we delivered remarkable output in copper, an outstanding 22% increase quarter on quarter, driven by the successful ramp up of Salobu III and a stronger performance at Salobu I and II plants. On nickel, we are on track to deliver the production guidance for 2024. As part of the asset review initiatives, Sudbury Mines had improved performance and the Clarabelle mill throughput was up 7% year on year. The improved mine performance resulted in reduced consumption of third-party feed and lower costs. We are confident that we are taking the right steps to transform the energy transition metals business. Next slide. On ESG, we continue to march towards becoming a more transparent and open company. We just released our 2023 integrated report, where we announced that we reached the target of 100% renewable energy consumption in Brazil, two years ahead of schedule. Reaching the target means that Vale has zero Scope 2 emissions in Brazil. To support our decarbonization pathway, Vale signed an agreement to acquire the remaining 45% stake in Aliança Energia. This is an important step towards creating an asset-light energy platform. Upon the transaction conclusion, value will search for potential partners to better advance in our commitments to decarbonize our operations using renewable sources at competitive costs. Our big focus on becoming an ESG leader in mining is bearing fruit. Our improvement in carbon emissions and safety practice led to renewed perception by Sustainalytics, for instance, with an important upgrade in our ESG risk rating in April. With that said, now I'll pass the floor to Gustavo for our financial results, and I'll get back to you on the Q&A. Thank you.

speaker
Gustavo Pimenta
Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations

Thanks, Eduardo, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with our EBITDA performance in the quarter. As you can see, we delivered a pro forma EBITDA of $3.5 billion in Q1. Before going to the main drivers, I would like to first explain a couple of reporting changes we implemented this quarter. With the reorganization of our assets between iron ore solutions and energy transition metals, Some items previously classified as others will now be allocated to their respective business segments. This change includes items such as SG&A and energy generation assets, and will allow for more precise evaluation of each business segment's performance. In addition, for better alignment with market peers, We are now including the proportional EBITDA of our associates and joint ventures into our EBITDA. We note that before 2024, our EBITDA included the dividends coming from those entities, which were naturally more volatile during the year. Now, returning to the main drivers behind our EBITDA performance in the quarter. We are pleased to see a continued strong operational performance across the board. which helped us offset a large portion of the impact from provisional prices, given the decrease in the iron ore benchmark prices during the quarter. On volumes, iron ore sales increased almost 15%, or 8.2 million tons year-on-year, driven by better operational performance in all of our systems, highlighting S11D, which achieved the highest output for our first quarter since 2020. Sales were also quite strong in Q1 this year, reflecting the initiatives undertaken in 2023 to improve operational performance and flexibility of our Ponta da Madeira port. Corporate sales were another highlight in the quarter, increasing by 22% of 14,000 tons year-on-year, driven by the ramp-up of Salobo III and better operational performance in the Salobu 1 and 2 operations. On costs and expenses, I would like to highlight the ongoing effort that our teams have been making internally to improve productivity and efficiency, excluding the external effects of higher freight costs in the iron ore business and the one-off effects in base metals, like the Onsepuma furnace rebuild, Our costs and expenses were roughly flat year-on-year. Again, this is being accomplished through a series of initiatives across the business, and we are quite excited about the cost-efficient opportunities we still see ahead of us. Now moving on to price realization. Our North Finest realized price was $100.7 per ton in Q1. 7% lower year-on-year, and 15% lower quarter-on-quarter. Pricing mechanisms had a negative impact of $10 per ton on our realized price in the quarter, largely explained by the negative effect of provisional prices. At the end of Q1, 24% of our iron ore fine sales were booked at $102 per ton on average. which compares to an average price of $124 per ton in the quarter. Also, about 30 million tons of sales from Q4 23 were booked at an average price of $139 per ton and were later realized at lower prices in Q1. Our average earner fines premium came in negative at $1.6 per ton. as we increase the share of high silica products in our sales mix, given the lower discounts observed for these products during the quarter. This has allowed us to maintain an adequate balance of high quality products through our supply chain for later value maximization. For Q2, we continue to see similar market conditions and therefore expected to maintain a slightly higher share of high silica products in our mix compared to historical levels. Now let me turn to our cost performance. In iron ore, our C1 cash cost, ex-third-party purchases, was $23.5 per tonne. slightly lower versus last year, despite the negative impact of the BRL appreciation. Excluding this effect, C1 would have been $22.8 per ton, almost a dollar per ton lower even here. This was driven by lower demurrage costs due to improved shipping and port loading during the rainy season. Higher fixed cost dilution as a result of higher production volumes. in gains from our cost-efficient programs. Additionally, I'd like to take a moment to comment on our strategy behind third-party purchases. We acquire our own orphan smaller producers that operate near our operations. This product is sold directly to our customers, or it is blended within our own production, generating a positive contribution margin. This helps dilute fixed costs. particularly as we have excess logistic capacity, while capital intensity is very low, which implies a very healthy return on invested capital. In 2023, our third-party volume was 24 million tons, and it is expected to increase slightly in 2024. We are also evaluating to accelerate the development of some of our smaller deposits through leasing agreements with regional partners. transactions that can offer attractive returns for both sides. Moving on to our energy transition metals business, we are pleased to deliver significant year-on-year reductions in all-in cost in both copper and nickel. Our copper all-in cost is decreased by 26% year-on-year, driven by continued successful ramp-up of Salobo 3 and improved operational performance at Salobo 1 and 2. The higher proportion of soluble three volumes in the product mix has also contributed to an increase in unit byproduct revenues with higher gold sales. Nickel oiling costs were down 14% year on year, supported by higher unit byproduct revenues. The unit COGS increase was expected and largely related to the furnace rebuild at Onsapuma. I would like to also mention that Mark with Fundy and the VBM team continue to make significant progress on the asset review. The value unlock opportunities are being assessed and designed for implementation over the next two to three years, with some benefits already being captured in the shorter term. As we pointed out last quarter, we'll present the key findings and action plan of the asset review in our webinar to be scheduled for June this year. Now moving on to cash generation. Our EBITDA to cash conversion was 57% in Q1, with free cash flow reaching $2 billion, roughly $0.5 billion lower than Q4 2023, despite the $3.4 billion sequential drop in EBITDA, driven mostly by seasonally lower shipments, quarter-on-quarter, and lower iron ore prices. This was achieved primarily due to the positive impact of a strong cash collection from Q4 sales, as we had anticipated last quarter, and seasonally lower capex disbursements. Most of the free cash flow generation was used to pay dividends and execute our buyback program for a total shareholder remuneration of $2.6 billion in Q1. So before we move on to the Q&A session, I'd like to reinforce the key messages from today's call. Safety continues to be our key priority, and we remain highly focused on creating the conditions for an accident-free workplace environment. Our continued strong operational performance across all commodities only reinforces we are in the right direction to consistently deliver on our short and long-term commitments. On ESG, We are making significant progress on several fronts, as demonstrated by our recent achievement of 100% renewable sourcing in Brazil for scope 2, and the continued investments to deliver a sustainable future for our businesses. On the medium-term strategic objectives we laid out at Valley Day, we are quite pleased to see the development of our key projects, such as Vargem Grande. which we expected to reach startup later this year. These investments will position Vale as the leader in high-quality offerings, which are critical for steelmaking decarbonization. Last, we remain highly committed to a disciplined capital allocation process, as evidenced by our $2.6 billion cash return to shareholders year-to-date through dividends and share buybacks. Now I would like to open the call for questions. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

We are going to start the question and answer section of the call. If you have a question, please click on the raise hand button. If your question has already been answered, you can leave the queue by clicking on the lower hand button. Please ask your question in English and limit your question to two at a time. Our first question comes from Rafael Barcelos with Bradesco BBI.

speaker
Rafael Barcelos
Analyst, Bradesco BBI

Hello, good morning and thanks for taking my questions. So firstly, I would say that the main news in the sector was the potential merger between BHP and Anglo American. So maybe if you could discuss a bit on how this movement could change Vale's strategy going forward, it could be interesting for us. Or even how could it change your recently announced partnership at Anglo's Minas Rio assets? And my second question here is maybe to just understand better your views on iron ore markets and price premiums in the coming quarters. And of course, how do you see the possibility of further extraordinary dividends now with iron ore prices back to the $120 per ton level? And thanks.

speaker
Eduardo de Sales Bartolomeu
CEO

Thanks, Rafael. It's Eduardo here. As you've noticed, it's truly unfolding. So we are still digesting what is going on. We specifically answering your question, we don't see any impacts on Armina's real deal. It's being undertaken with angle. It's going to be respected by whoever comes later, if it comes later. So that's the first reaction. Second is, we've been speaking with you since we decided to do the CarVault, right? We believe that Vale has a unique position in the industry, right? We do have a growth platform in iron ore, as Gustavo mentioned during his presentation. We are going to add 50 million tons of high quality with low cost. So there is no other asset in the world that could be attractive to us on that sense. And when you look at base metals, we still have, as well, the best endowment in Canada, in Brazil, in Karajan's province, and in Indonesia. Obviously, we're always looking at opportunities eventually, but it doesn't change our strategic focus on executing the asset review, the transformation in base metals. There's a tremendous amount of of value to be extracted there. And iron ore, we are the only iron ore growth with quality in the sector. So we will follow up closely the development of this deal, but it doesn't impact our strategy or change anything in our mindset. And I'll pass the second question to Spinelli.

speaker
Marcelo Spinelli
Executive Vice President, Iron Ore Solutions

Thank you, Rafael. Regarding the market, we see China, as you mentioned, we remain the same view about China. That's the main market. We're calling this moment the China resiliency. Despite the problem in the proper markets that all of us track today, We see since 21 a very strong market in the manufacturing, growing really constantly with the energy transition industry or shipbuilding. So we have an offset for that. And we consider the export as something that is sometimes bothering the markets. But by the end of the day, it's a trade off between protection in the market and inflation. So all the micron conditions in China are going well. So still inventory now is slower than last year. And the margins are getting better. So as a whole, we see the market really similar compared to last year. And you asked us about the premiums. Premiums by product. We see a stable moment in that we've been stable for some months, so some quarters actually. So we see the Carajás and also the BRBF in a stable gap. And we can have a small upside risk here. If we have some spike in the coke and coal market, that can increase the necessity for efficiency.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Next question from Caio Ribeiro with Bank of America.

speaker
Caio Ribeiro
Analyst, Bank of America

Yes, thank you very much. Good morning. Thanks for the opportunity. So first of all, I just wanted to see if you could share some updates with us on the latest involving the ONSA Puma and Sosego operations and any color that you can share on expected operational financial impacts there would be helpful. And then my second question is related to the renegotiation of the railroad concessions, right? Can you give us some color there as well on, you know, your latest expectations around those negotiations and on timing as well to conclude them? Thank you.

speaker
Eduardo de Sales Bartolomeu
CEO

I think Mark is in the call, right? Mark, would you answer the first one?

speaker
Mark Cutifani
Chairman of Vale Base Metals

Yep. Thanks, Eduardo. Can you hear me okay?

speaker
Carlos de Alba
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep. Yep.

speaker
Mark Cutifani
Chairman of Vale Base Metals

Good. Well, thanks for the question. On both operations, we're working through with the authorities as we speak. In the case of Sasego, what has been outlined to us is that there were some complaints on noise and dust and complaints around reduced social programs through COVID. We have already submitted our reports for those issues, which was subject to the first complaint. And now that it's clear that we've input the reports, we're now working through detail that's contained in those reports, both with the authorities and with the local political leaderships as well. And we've got about three to four weeks or on the ground to process. So we're in good shape in terms of our ore stocks, because it's the mines that are actually impacted. So processes are still going forward. On Supuma, a fairly similar story in terms of compliance, a little bit different in terms of some of the mining work, more environmental related, but also connected to social programs and a similar story. We're working through with the authorities. We're also talking to other leaders in the community, very sensitive to making sure that people aren't impacted. And I think everybody's keen to make sure we get things up and running very quickly. In the Onsipuma case, we've got about four months of war because we've now finished the furnace rebuild and we're on heat up at the moment. still going through those processes. But again, at this stage, we're not anticipating problems over the course of the year. We should be able to make up the production through the course of the year. May might be impacted on the furnace issue, but that's more an operating ramp up to full capacity issue than anything connected to the current mining shutdown because we've got lots of ore. So that's where we are. I would expect during the course of next week, we'll have both issues pretty well in view and we'll let everybody know where we're up to.

speaker
Marcelo Spinelli
Executive Vice President, Iron Ore Solutions

Caio, thank you for your question. So, first of all, we have a very solid contract. We've spent more than four years to reach the deal of the renewal with all the approvals and all the levels, federal levels, and it's important to say we are complying with our obligations. But nevertheless, we've been talking to the transportation ministry. We see room to optimize some specific parts of the contract and also adjust some obligations. That can bring value for the company and we see that we can balance this value with new obligations to pay. So you may expect a balanced negotiation. We are finalizing the discussion and we expect the final terms soon.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Next question from Carlos de Alba with Morgan Stanley.

speaker
Carlos de Alba
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. So my question, maybe similar to the last one, but focusing a little bit on Mariana. Clearly, you took a provision in the fourth quarter and now you provided us with an updated disbursement path. And there were news overnight about the potential restart or the reportedly restart of the negotiations this week. So I don't know if you can provide an update there, clearly a key concern by the market, something that everyone would like to get resolved. I think the companies, the authorities, and certainly the people that were impacted. So an update will be great there. And my second question is, in light of the increasing capex at Zagazul 120, as well as the Voices Bay expansion, And then the revision on CapEx of the briquettes projects. How can we think about, how should we think about the 2025, maybe 2026 CapEx for the company? Thank you.

speaker
Gustavo Pimenta
Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations

Hey Carlos, this is Gustavo. So on Mariana, yes, your question is spot on. We are highly engaged with the counterparties. The mediation process, as you probably know, has been ongoing and we engaged more actively recently in order to find a resolution that works for everybody. We continue to be hopeful that by mid this year we can reach a negotiated outcome, which we all think it's the ideal path in this case. So stay tuned. We'll keep you updated. But we are certainly engaged, looking for ways to find an agreeable solution here for all parties. On the CAPEX, we've updated. The main one is S11D. It's over a period of years as we get to commissioning 2026. So no impact in our guidance and our expectations as we had before for the following years. This year, we are still within the $6.5 billion, no impact. And we should be able to accommodate those increases in the following years as well.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Next question from John Brandt with HSBC.

speaker
John Brandt
Analyst, HSBC

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to clarify an earlier answer, Eduardo. Just given the Anglo BHP news today, are you sort of unequivocally saying that Vale have no interest in the Anglo assets and that you're more watching to see what the impact is from the you know, from a potential deal, but Vale have no interest in those assets. Is that correct? And then I guess, you know, my question is really, you know, around we sort of discussed, you know, some of the rail concessions, some of the permits, the Samarco liabilities, et cetera. I'm just wondering, you know, I think that's sort of a big part of the reason for Vale's underperformance relative to peers and I'm just wondering, you know, how would you categorize your relationship with the government, right? I mean, you've talked a lot about stability and wanting sort of a stable environment. This, you know, seems to be, you know, anything but. So I'm just, I'm wondering what you can do or what Vale can do to sort of improve the relationship that you have with the government so that the market doesn't have to deal with these sorts of issues. And then my second question, just really quickly, is it looks like on the breakeven costs for copper, they came in well below guidance for 2024. I'm just wondering how much upside risk there is to that guidance number. Is this a seasonal issue or, you know, has some of the things, Mark, that you've put into place, is that really starting to bear fruit? Thank you.

speaker
Eduardo de Sales Bartolomeu
CEO

Thanks, John. Well, it's... question that obviously when you look at angular assets obviously would be interested what we try to explain in my answer at the beginning is that we have better options inside house to look at and more cheap options because otherwise you would go to a bid and that's not doesn't make any sense for us so that's why i said we are watching with attention The asset that has interference with our strategy is the Minas Rio that we just closed with Hangul. And this one is protected. The others, as mentioned, we are waiting to see what's going to happen. But meanwhile, we are much more interested in accelerating, executing our own endowment. Specifically about the railway concessions, that's a good question because it's not a VALIS issue, right? It has been done through HUMU, it has been done through MRS, it has been with all the other concessions. So it's not a VALIS specific problem. Obviously, as Spinetti said, we are truly sure that we have a very robust contract But we'll take the opportunity to adjust some specifics and make a win-win situation with the government that we believe will help on this problem or on this matter that you mentioned, a better and a more stable relationship with the government. That is always good. That we, by the way, we always had. And the second question is to you, right? Oh, sorry, a couple of calls to Mark. Sorry, Mark.

speaker
Gustavo Pimenta
Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations

We probably lost Mark. I can take it, John. So, Yeah, it was a good first quarter, especially given the strong ramp-up of Salobo, Salobo 3, plus also a strong operational performance on Salobo 1 and 2. So we are not resetting expectations, but what I can say, it's looking pretty good within the guidance that we had laid out. So hopefully, through the remaining part of the year, we can provide more details around it.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Next question from Leonardo Correa with BTG Pactual.

speaker
Leonardo Correa
Analyst, BTG Pactual

Good morning, everyone. I have a couple of questions on my side. Yeah, so the first one, I'm not sure if Mark is back, so feel free. You are? Okay, perfect. Welcome back, Mark. Just on the base metal story still, I mean, they're very mixed results, very pressured by, in fairness, by pressured nickel prices. But you're having a dual speed situation where basically copper is performing very well. um, uh, perhaps above expectations and Nicholas is performing, uh, well below expectations. Uh, and the overall results have been pressured. If you take a year of expectations for EB die and base metals were, are way above what, what you guys are currently delivering. Uh, and I get the point that, um, there's a lot under review, so I don't want to be unfair, but, um, and I know that Gustavo, and I think in the opening remarks, he said that, um, by June, we're going to have more details, but, um, I mean, just thinking of you, I mean, do you see an opportunity to adjust capacities and to perhaps put some of Vale's nickel assets under care maintenance at this point, just given market conditions are unfavorable and the assets not generating any EBITDA? So my first question is specifically to Nickel, how you see the evolution and how viable certain assets of Vale are in this scenario? The second question, I think there was a question on this, Gustavo, but I think it wasn't addressed yet. But if I may, just moving back to the dividend situation and the extraordinary dividend potential for the latter part of this year. With all these questions on additional provisions and outflows, I mean, how are you viewing this, right? I mean, we're getting some help from iron ore prices lately, so we're back to 120. How are you viewing this extraordinary dividend story with your leverage, which is now at the upper side of your tolerance, let's say? Those are the two questions. Thank you very much.

speaker
Eduardo de Sales Bartolomeu
CEO

Okay. Go ahead, Mark. Mark, you're on mute.

speaker
Mark Cutifani
Chairman of Vale Base Metals

Try again. How's that?

speaker
Eduardo de Sales Bartolomeu
CEO

Okay, I'll copy you.

speaker
Mark Cutifani
Chairman of Vale Base Metals

Okay. Gustavo made the observation on copper around Salobo's improvement, and that was very encouraging, flowing into the first quarter, coming off a strong last quarter as well. And that pointed to a few changes that were made over the last six or nine months. And we've had similar, albeit different, lagging performance at Sudbury because we did the asset review in Sudbury about three months after Salobo. And Eduardo pointed to the 7% improvement at Borobel. On a run rate basis, it's closer to 15%. And that reflects both copper and nickel. So I think we've got good trends at two of the most important operations. Indonesian remains fairly solid. On Supuma is coming through the furnace rebuild and is heating up. And what we are flagging is a likely intention to push some of that feed north to try and improve the premiums on products we receive. And so it's not simply about operations. And that's a long way to go and a lot of improvement to come. But it's also about price realisations. And with the price volatility issue, And what we think will be a premium related to the products that we produce from Canada, we think there's still a lot of potential on both the cost side and on the pricing side that we're looking at. And with the volatility we're seeing in the nickel market, what we don't want to do is start cutting production where we're already seeing material reductions in operating costs and we think there's a real premium. So we want to give it another two or three months and that's what we want to reflect and show you So we still think there's two stories playing out. The operating improvement plus premiums that we can get by using our flow sheets better, filling Matsusaka, doing more work at Clitig and making sure we've got all the molecules heading in the right direction. So it'll be a story in two parts. And I think we'll be able to show that in June, that we're looking at both operating costs and margin improvements as well on the pricing side.

speaker
Gustavo Pimenta
Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations

Thanks, Mark. And I'll take the second one. Apologies also to Rafael that we haven't responded for the first question on the extraordinary dividend potential. Look, as you know, it depends on several elements. Certainly, market conditions have improved lately, which gives us some good expectations of potential cash generation through year-end. But we also compare those vis-a-vis where we are on the leverage ratio, minimum cash, provisions and outflows. So I think it's early and we think it's early to point out to potential incremental dividends. But we'll certainly assess that through year end. And if there's any opportunity, we'll certainly consider with our board as we always do. And we've been doing this consistently over the last several years.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Next question from Myles Alsop with UBS.

speaker
Myles Alsop
Analyst, UBS

Hi there. A couple of questions. First of all, on iron ore, obviously a very strong first quarter. The guidance for 2024 either looks conservative or you have some concerns about potential operating challenges uh later this year i mean should we look at the guidance as conservative or or other other other things we should bear in mind for later in the year and then maybe secondly um on the nickel side a question for mark i mean the challenges in the nickel market are driven by indonesia and obviously vales contributing to those incremental tons and what what's the latest with the Indonesian projects, and is there any desire to slow those back to try and rebalance the market? Thank you.

speaker
Carlos Medeiros
Executive Vice President of Operations

Hi, Miles. This is Carlos Medeiros. Still early days to review our 2024 guidance. We had a quite good Q1, but still there are challenges as we see ahead. And we had also a very strong second half of the year last year. So this is why we prefer to maintain our guidance. And if we decide to revisit it, it will be done later in the year. Meanwhile, we're still working on the usual levels to increase production initiatives, such as our seasonality plan that has proved to be robust. the reliability initiatives to continue to improve the overall equipment availability, our mining plans to review the mine geometries, whatever necessary to free up more ore, and also in the hydrogeology initiatives to make sure that our water balance in our mines offers additional opportunities to access the bottom of the pit earlier during the year. So all in all, we'll keep it for now and we might get back to you later. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Next question. Oh, sorry.

speaker
Mark Cutifani
Chairman of Vale Base Metals

Yeah, Miles, on the nickel side. On the question on Indonesia, I think the first thing to recognises the divestment announcements and milestones that were achieved were very positive and certainly we moved through that fairly quickly with the Indonesian government, so credit to everybody involved. Second point, funds on POMLA have been committed as per the requirements and we're still working through the early phases of that. In terms of The commitment on new projects, again, we're very mindful of our obligations with our partners, but at the same time, we're also making the point that we need to be prudent and consider the individual investment propositions very carefully. There is a little bit of uncertainty in the marketplace regarding how different products will be priced in the market. Great news for us in Canada is that it's likely we will do better than most because of the nature of the material and the low carbon footprint. Indonesia will probably be in a very different conversation and we're working with our partners just to make sure we understand that and what that means for each of the investments. And again, we're also mindful of the fact that we need to pace things those additions with the market as well. But again, it's an open conversation with our partners. It's still early in that process, I have to say. So we've got a bit more work to do.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Valid team, ready for your next question? Next question from Timna Tanners with Wolfie Research.

speaker
Timna Tanners
Analyst, Wolfie Research

Hey, good morning. I want to dive down a little more into the cost, but we could phase that. Given the recent volatility and higher market prices, it would be great to hear what you think we need to manage the cost side. This quarter saw kind of a big uptick in third-party purchase costs despite the progress on your overall iron ore production costs. So can you give us an update and some thoughts on how to model the third-party purchase side? That's my first question. And the second is just an outlook on the teller premiums.

speaker
Eduardo de Sales Bartolomeu
CEO

Sorry, it's getting crunched. Could you ask it again?

speaker
Timna Tanners
Analyst, Wolfie Research

Sure. Is that any better?

speaker
Eduardo de Sales Bartolomeu
CEO

A little bit.

speaker
Timna Tanners
Analyst, Wolfie Research

Sorry. Just asking for any outlook on costs given the price volatility and any guidance for third-party purchase costs, anything you can do to change costs overall on the higher north side?

speaker
Eduardo de Sales Bartolomeu
CEO

Okay, we got this one.

speaker
Timna Tanners
Analyst, Wolfie Research

The other one was just on coming out.

speaker
Eduardo de Sales Bartolomeu
CEO

I'll ask the first one, answer the first one, then Tina, you ask the second one.

speaker
Gustavo Pimenta
Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations

Tina, so Tina Gustavo here. On the cost outlook, you know, we came at a C1 at 23.5, slightly lower than last year. You have to be mindful that Q1, it's usually our toughest quarter in terms of giving the lower volumes that we produce, so the effect of dilution is limited, as we saw last year. But when we look at the forecast for the year, we are feeling super confident with the numbers that we laid out, the 21.5 to 23. A lot of the cost-efficiency initiatives that we've started 18 months ago are bearing fruit, and sales are coming in strong, production is coming in strong, so we are feeling good about it. The challenges which have been managed on the all-in, I think Leonardo made that reference, in terms of the break-even cost, has been mostly associated with the freight rates, which Valley is mostly hedged, which is one of our competitive advantages. Not 100% hedged, so you saw an uptick this quarter, but this is one of the headwinds that we've been able to manage. We are now probably 90% hedged in terms of our demands for the year. Also hedged on the brand costs. And the other element here are the premiums, which came a little tighter and as given market conditions. But all in all, we are feeling very good with the numbers that we have laid out in terms of forecast for the year for both C1 and all in cost across all businesses, by the way.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Next question from Ricardo Monegaglia with Safra.

speaker
Ricardo Monegaglia
Analyst, Safra

Hello, good morning, everyone. I have a couple of questions, actually follow-ups from previous questions. First, on the base metals business, are there any changes to commodity price hedge policies given the recent rally in metals prices? And the second question still on base metals is, are there any updates that you could share with us on regards to the conclusion of value-based metals transaction? It continues to be expected to occur in the second quarter. What are the final steps to conclude this acquisition? It would be interesting to understand. And my second question is on iron ore quality. Based on the target for the year and 1Q24 levels, it implies that quality will come above the level of 62.5% in the coming quarters. Should we expect this trend already in the second quarter or high silica sales could continue high or at the same levels as in the first Q? Those are my questions, guys.

speaker
Gustavo Pimenta
Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations

All right, Gustavo. Sure. Thanks, Ricardo. So I'll do the first ones and then Spinelli will cover the premiums. So on the hedging, we usually don't do it. That's the nature of the business. We like to run the exposure unless there is some very unique conditions where we may want to consider. So that's part of the nature of our business and we like to run exposure. with exposure in those commodities. On the VBM, we've got, I think Eduardo mentioned in his prep remarks, we've got all the regulatory approvals and we are now working with partners to move to the closing, which we expect to happen in the next, call it, couple of weeks. So we'll keep the market updated about it. So I'll turn back to Spinelli.

speaker
Marcelo Spinelli
Executive Vice President, Iron Ore Solutions

Okay, thank you, Ricardo. So regarding the quality average, it depends on, firstly, in the production mix. And you saw that we had a good performance in the north system. And as we have a pattern of higher production in the second half, That will naturally increase the average grade. And in regarding sales, you're right. We took an advantage to sell directly the high silicon in the first part of the year, actually in the end of last year. So the discount was there. So we can take this. choice, actually every day we assess this. So as we move forward during the year, we have the possibility to blend this product or to concentrate this product or sell it directly. But in the second half, we don't have a lot of high silica as we increase the production in the north system and we prioritize the blend. And after that, we can choose the remaining high silica if you want to sell directly or not. It's difficult to precise in advance. It depends on the market conditions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Next question from Gabriel Simões with Goldman Sachs.

speaker
Gabriel Simões
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi. Can you hear me? Yes. Okay. Thanks for taking my questions. I actually have one quick follow-up on one of the questions that were asked before. Actually, I just wanted to understand on the development of your R&R projects. So if you could comment a bit on how the development is going, the capacity increasing projects, so Varginha Grande, Capanema, and SLMD. That'd be great because we just wanted to understand how the projects are doing so far and how confident you are with the timeline you provided earlier. I know you mentioned that the Serra Sul should remain the same timeline. Just wanted to have a better sense on the other ones. Thank you.

speaker
Gustavo Pimenta
Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations

So, Gabriel Gustavo here. We're feeling pretty good about it. We gave you some stats during Eduardo's presentation of where each one of those projects are. We have a series of projects, but the three... The three main ones we've been pointing out is Vargen Grande, Kapanem, and Plus20. And they are moving along the timeline we had established. So we're feeling pretty good about it. And Vargen Grande, for example, the expectation is that we'll have this startup by the end of the year. So that's one of the key projects that we've promised to deliver through 2026 to have that increase. and take value to a potential range of 340 to 360. So I'm moving along the plan and we're feeling pretty good about those deliverables.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

This concludes today's question and answer session. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeu for the company's final remarks.

speaker
Eduardo de Sales Bartolomeu
CEO

Okay, thank you. Well, just to conclude, I think we, as we say here in Brazil, we start with the right foot. We start the year in a very good shape. We always like to say that we win the game in the first quarter. We're not that arrogant. We know we still have nine months to go. The rainy season isn't over yet on the north. But the thesis of safety versus production is being proved today. that we can be safer and reliable. And that's, I think, is a very important message. We are seeing a positive market in iron ore and a cooper as well. Nickel has its challenge. As lastly, as answered by Gustavo, our projects are on time, on budget, so we will deliver on it. On June, we're going to have more color on the asset review. And in the end, about the noises that are around us. We see some overhangs starting to getting off of the radar as Mariana is expected to be over. We will try our best to do it by the first half. The renewal is going to be over. It's not going to be material. So with that said, if we see through the noise, we will remain extremely disciplined, extremely focused on what we have to do And we still see an extremely huge opportunity to invest in Vale. So again, thanks a lot for your attention and hope to see you in the next call. Okay, thank you and have a safe day.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Vale's conference is now concluded. We thank you for your participation.

Disclaimer

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