Venture Global, Inc. Class A common stock

Hello, thank you everyone for joining us and welcome to the Venture Global Inc. 4th Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 again. I will now hand the conference over to Ben Nolan, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Venture Global Inc.' 's 4th Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. I'm joined this morning by Mike Sable, Venture Global's CEO, executive co-chairman and founder, Jack Thayer, our CFO, and other members of Venture Global's senior management team. Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including answers to your questions, may contain forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from what is described in these statements. I encourage you to refer to the disclaimers in our earnings presentation which is available on the investor section of our website. Additionally, we may include certain non-GAAP metrics, such as consolidated adjusted EBITDA, which we may refer to simply as EBITDA during this call. A reconciliation of these metrics to the most relevant GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of the earnings presentation posted on our website. Finally, the guidance in this presentation is only effective as of today, In general, we will not update guidance until the following quarter and will not update or affirm guidance other than through broadly disseminated public disclosure. I'll now turn the call over to Mike Sable.

Thank you, Ben. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We are pleased to share our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results and provide guidance for 2026. I'll begin the call with an overview of our key accomplishments and future plans before shifting to our LNG projects individually. I will then make some remarks on the LNG industry in the current events before turning over the call to Jack, who will provide a more detailed review of our financial results and guidance for 2026. Following all prepared remarks, we will open the line to Q&A. Turning to page five of the presentation, 2025 was a landmark year for Venture Global. In January, we went public. We reached commercial operations at our first project, Coxview Pass, in April. At Plaquemines, after producing our first cargo at the end of December 2024, we have ramped up commissioning activities and are now generating more than one commissioning cargo per day. And at CP2, our largest project to date, we launched construction and raised financing for the first phase in July. This means we are simultaneously constructing 57 MTPA plus of capacity across two facilities. Phase one of Plaquemines is on track for COD this year and construction of the first phase of CP2 is running well and is on schedule and on budget. Total assets grew by approximately $10 billion to $53 billion and EBITDA and income from operations nearly tripled. Venture Global is on track to be the largest LNG producer in North America. supported by more than $134 billion of total contracted third-party revenue, which we expect to continue to grow as we add to our existing base of 49 MTPA of long and intermediate-term offtake agreements. For 2026, it is worth noting that we now have 69% of expected production capacity contracted, a percentage that should rise quickly as we anticipate signing additional short to intermediate and long-term contracts in the near term. Venture global equity has been publicly listed for just over a year now, and our priority has been to control what we can control and deliver on what we promised. As you see on page six, we have accomplished a great deal this year. The number of cargos we produced in 2025 was at the high end of the guidance range set out at the IPO. We reached FID at CP2 phase one, We secured 7.75 NTPA of additional 20-year SPAs. We leveraged data generation and analysis, lessons learned from Kaukchi Pass, to further increase production capacity at Plaquemines. And we identified low-cost bolt-on production opportunities at our first three facilities in excess of what we had originally anticipated. In addition, as you can see in the column to the right, we believe there should be further upside to each of these areas in 2026, and we are working diligently to deliver growth in return for our shareholders and customers. The constant pursuit of excellence is core to our culture at Venture Global, as we have highlighted on page seven. The combination of structural benefits from our modular approach, massive data capture and analysis, and our unrelenting focus on continuous learning and improvement translates into superior LNG production and project-level operating and maintenance costs that are currently about 30% below industry averages, and we see room for further improvements. We have continued the process of bringing most of the typical EPC functions in-house, which has enabled us to construct our facilities in less than half the time many other LNG projects take, which combined with our faster production ramp translates into lower costs and better returns. While efficiency and speed are important objectives, our first priority remains the safety of our employees, contractors, and communities, as reflected in our best-in-class safety record. Finally, we are working to monetize the key components of the LNG value chain and augment our LNG portfolio with complementary midstream shipping, regasification, and in the case of CP2, nitrogen removal assets, all of which we expect should give us better access to attractively priced gas, protect and enhance margins, and improve our customer connectivity. We view our LNG infrastructure as technology assets that we are constantly optimizing to be safer, faster, and more efficient. You can see on page eight, our near-term outlook for the buildup of production from our facilities. We anticipate Kakushu Pass, Plaquemines, and CP2 phases 1 and 2, when complete, will generate approximately 68 million tons per annum plus on an annual run rate basis with room for upside from optimization efforts and peak production opportunities. Of this 68 MTPA, we have contracted approximately 72% already on a long-term basis. Beyond that, we have included what we anticipate will be our next additions following CP2 phase two. As I'll discuss in more detail shortly, we expect to be able to add approximately 13 MTPA of bolt-on capacity at CP2 and Plaquemines at costs well below even our own industry low construction pricing and even faster than our industry leading construction timelines. This tremendous growth in the number of trains and related infrastructure translates into a more than doubling of monthly ship loadings growing from approximately 43 per month today to approximately 90 per month in 2029. This in turn could transform our cash flows. For example, assuming just a $3 per MMBTU liquefaction fee for our uncontracted volumes, we estimate by 2029 our EBITDA could be about $11 billion. Assuming a $5 MMBTU on uncontracted volumes, that estimated EBITDA number could rise to $17 billion, reflecting the straightforward impact of installation of more trains producing more LNG commodity product. Our new production ramp is expected to be staggered with the COD dates of our existing projects, such that as we complete commissioning at one project and move to long-term fixed-rate contracts, the new production capacity should begin to ramp, creating a balanced portfolio of long, intermediate, and short-dated sales agreements. This should improve cash flow visibility and provide an optimal balance of margin and predictable cash flow, while importantly retaining very valuable upside earning optionality. As we advance on schedule this year and next year to COD of phases one and two of Plaquemines and following CP2, we activate an increasing portion of our $134 billion of long-term contracted third-party revenue, now blended with a growing portfolio of intermediate-term tenor sales contracts. we are actively working to add to both the 20-year and intermediate term contract portfolios and anticipate more deals in the coming quarters. Importantly, we currently target funding all of our project CapEx and the incremental growth with our existing construction loans, retained earnings, and incremental project-level borrowing with no parent-level equity, preferred, or debt anticipated at this time. Notably, we have executed our Plaquemines and CP2 construction financings while retaining 100% ownership of those projects and therefore, of course, 100% of future earnings. Turning to page nine, since we reentered the contracting market in April of last year, Venture Global has signed 9.25 MTPA contracts of new 20-year SPAs with a fantastic portfolio of customers. This is more volume than any other LNG company in the market, demonstrating that the world's top buyers trust our execution and reliability. Today, we are pleased to announce our first five-year contract at Venture Global Commodities for approximately 0.5 MTPA with Trafiguro. Additionally, last week we signed a new 1.5 MTPA 20-year SPA with Hanwha Aerospace, marking our first long-term contract with a South Korean customer. These two new binding agreements add to the four we signed in the fourth quarter of 2025 with Natogy, Atlantic Sea, Mitsui, and Tokyo Gas. On page 10, I'll highlight our performance in Q4 in the exceptional year-over-year increase in our results. As you can see, we nearly tripled revenue income from operations and EBITDA through the gradual ramp of commissioning. Jack will discuss these numbers in greater detail later, but the main takeaway is our company's ability in the fourth quarter to generate over $2 billion of EBITDA and $1 billion of net income during a period of disruptive market dynamics, including swings in commodity prices in a period of challenging ship availability. underscoring the resiliency of our business model and resourcefulness of our team. Turning to page 11, thanks to our innovative temporary power solution, all 36 liquefaction trains at Plaquemines have undergone initial startup. We also recently filed a request with FERC to increase the authorized peak liquefaction capacity at both Plaquemines and CP2 to 35 MTPA as well as filing with FERC and the U.S. Department of Energy for up to 31 MTPA of bolt-on expansion at Pakman's. Our construction success is predicated on our mission to be the safest LNG developer in the industry, as reflected by our 0.16 total recordable incident rate compared to the national average of 2.2. I mentioned on our commercial success, our commercial success in 2025 earlier, and now early 26th, But our finance team is also very busy as we issued $3 billion of Plaquemines notes to repay construction financing. And we are currently hard at work to finalize the construction loan for phase two to fully fund the construction of that phase of CP2. Turning to page 13, we show a summary of the projects we are planning to bring online by the end of the decade. as I just discussed. As you know, there are further low-cost bolt-on and growth opportunities available to us, but we thought it would be helpful to outline our near-term development plans. Moving to page 14, it was business as usual at Coxy Pass during Q4, as we exported 38 cargoes, which is down slightly from our prior expectations as ship availability in Atlantic storm delays late in the quarter did impact several anticipated cargoes. I wanted to provide some update commentary on the COCSU Pass arbitrations. In January, we received a favorable no liability decision in the Repsol arbitration proceedings. Going forward, the non-cash reserve, which reflects our best estimate of award outcomes from BP and the other three remaining arbitrations, is currently estimated to be $13 million per quarter reduction to revenue at COCSU Pass through the 20-year duration of the SPA contract terms. while the impact EBITDA will be less due to adjustments for non-controlling interest and taxes. Importantly, this is an estimate and there is no cash impact to our fourth quarter financial statements. We will update these estimates in our financials quarterly as we receive arbitration results and incorporate any final financial awards or settlements going forward. Also, while BP has raised the quantum of their damages claim, our position as to our exposure there is unchanged. as the clear language of the contracts prevents recovery of the categories and magnitude of damages sought by BP. Turning to page 15, Plaquemines continues to progress construction, commissioning and the performance reliability and assurance testing required in advance of phase one COD in Q4 of this year and phase two COD in mid-2027. Although we continue to utilize and rely on a significant amount of temporary power, In the second quarter, we expect Phase 1 will transition to its permanent power plant configuration. We are yet to achieve substantial completion, but we are on schedule and targeting substantial completion under the scopes of the EPC by late summer, so coming soon. Turning to page 16, CP2 is now just over seven months from Phase 1 FID, announced on July 28th. Despite this short period, I'm pleased to announce construction of phase one is proceeding well on schedule and budget. And over the weekend, we raised the roof on our first LNG tank, making it the fastest time to a roof raise of this size in the history of the LNG industry. Furthermore, we now have six of the 26 liquefaction trains delivered to the site and on foundations and expect delivery of the first pretreatment module in the coming months. With respect to phase two, as I mentioned, we have now signed five MTPA of 20-year SPAs to support the financing for the project. We continue to have constructive conversations with off-takers and expect to announce additional SPAs in coming quarters. With $1.7 billion of equity already invested in phase two, we expect project financing and FID to be complete in coming weeks. We anticipate funding the entire CP2 project with retained earnings and a construction loan from a group of leading banks, enabling Venture Global to again maintain 100% ownership in one of the world's largest LNG projects. On page 17, We depict the first two bolt-on expansions we expect to develop after FID of CP2 phase two, subject to additional contracting and regulatory approval. The bolt-ons at CP2 and Plaquemines are straightforward liquefaction train and gas turbine additions that should add around 6.4 MTPA each. The additions leverage the benefits of our modular approach, resulting in what we expect to be much lower cost and much shorter construction timelines. These developments exemplify the advantages of our mid-scale modular approach, as well as the power to leverage existing redundancies built into the original designs. Turning to page 19. The past few months and recent events have demonstrated the impact of seasonality, the inherent tightness of LNG supply and demand, and of course, the impact of geopolitics on our market. While LNG spreads compressed in late 2025, cold weather in January and February has exhausted gas inventories in Europe to low levels, lifting LNG forward curves. Of course, this is all impacted by current events over the weekend. Furthermore, a number of LNG projects under construction have announced delays of their planned start dates. As you can see on the left, the forward curves reflect the market expectation for LNG prices in both Asia and Europe to remain at considerable spreads over Henry Hub through 2028, even during periods of expected cold weather and higher US gas prices. Of course, these are the four curves reflected on Friday. As we approach production at CP2, our pipeline infrastructure, which enables us to access Permian gas at Waha and Katy, is likely to become increasingly supportive of expanded margins. Importantly, Waha gas is expected to remain at a significant discount to Henry Hub, creating an opportunity for positive basis impact at CP2, highlighting the value of our investment in nitrogen removing units to address high nitrogen levels found in that basin. Flipping to page 20, based on our bottom-up view of the global LNG market on the left, we expect demand to meet or exceed supply through the end of the decade, but quickly move to undersupply early next decade unless additional liquefaction capacity is added. This positively supports contracting demand for our growing portfolio. Importantly, these assumptions are conservatively based on demand growth of 4.7% through 2035, which is below the historical 5.3% from 2015 to 2025. Demand for clean baseload electricity continues to grow and new LNG markets are being developed throughout the world. Historically, Demand for energy and certainly gas increases as price declines provided the physical infrastructure exists to support it, which we see on page 21, where we see some of the expansion of regasification infrastructure, which is further positioned to grow by approximately 40% from 2024 to 2030, with upside as new projects are announced. China alone is positioned to add more than 100 MTPA of regasification capacity by 2030. India is committed to taking natural gas from just 6% of primary energy mix to 15% by 2030 as well. There has also been a sharp increase in developments from new markets like Iraq, Vietnam, Philippines, South Africa, New Zealand, and others. We see countries around the world increasingly require reliable, consistent sources of energy, seek alternatives to cross-border pipelines, and make investments to meet rising power demand. Furthermore, we estimate regasification utilization would only need to reach 40% of capacity in order to offset all of the new liquefaction infrastructure currently under construction, which again has seen slippage in FIDs and projected startup timing. Page 22 shows reflects the growth in gas power generation in both Europe and China. Not only are investments being made in regasification infrastructure, but also in gas power generation, which we expect to experience heavy utilization, particularly at attractive LNG prices. In 2025, a high-priced global LNG market, less than 3% of Chinese power was produced from natural gas, while more than 55% came from coal. As existing installed gas generation capacity operates at higher capacity factors and new gas-fired power generation is added, we expect LNG imports to follow as delivered if LNG prices moderate. Domestic gas production is flattening in China and new pipeline additions are limited. Furthermore, we estimate that every 1% share gained by LNG relative to coal would translate into 34 MTPA of LNG demand. At $10 per MMBTU LNG prices, for example, the cost of electricity in China is about 7 to 8 cents a kilowatt hour, converging on the cost of coal-fired power generation, and history has proven that people consume affordably priced electricity. In the event the LNG prices were to fall below $10 per MMBTU and gas and coal power generation approach parity, we would expect a sharp demand response, creating an LNG price floor at levels supporting liquefaction margins well in excess of those reflected by current long-term SPA prices. Of course, we're in moments of price volatility, but we expect those, of course, as we move beyond current events for them to smooth out. Consequently, we are confident that the market is building the infrastructure to easily absorb new LNG supply and demand elasticity should mean every drop of LNG the market would be able to produce over the next several years should be consumed at reasonable prices. As evidenced by the forward curve, historical precedent, and contracting activity, our customers feel the same. Now I'll turn it over to Jack, our CFO, who will review the financials and our updated guidance.

Thank you, Mike. Pardon me. And good morning to those on the line. I'll be referring to the Venture Global Inc. Form 10-K for the year-end of December 31st, 2025. The 10-K is available on our website, and some of the key results are summarized on page 24 of the presentation. During this call, I will highlight results I believe are salient to this audience, and I encourage you to review the entirety of our financial statements in detail. Beginning with revenue, our top line was $4.4 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, a $2.9 billion increase from $1.5 billion during the equivalent period in 2024. This increase in revenue was driven by $3.8 billion from higher sales volumes, 478 TBTU in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with 128 TBTU in the fourth quarter of 2024, which was partially offset by $945 million from lower net rates, primarily at Calcasieu Pass due to the commencement of LNG sales under its post-COD SPAs. For the full year 2025, revenue was $13.8 billion, up $8.8 billion from $5 billion in 2024, primarily due to increased sales volumes, partially offset by lower rates. Our income from operations was $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, a $1.1 billion increase from $594 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. This shift was primarily driven by the higher sales volumes I mentioned previously, which resulted in a greater total margin for LNG sold. These increases were partially offset by $50 million of higher operating costs in support of the ramp up of LNG production at the Plaquemines project, and operating our tankers, as well as $32 million and $147 million of higher G&A and depreciation expenses, respectively. We experienced a reduction in our development expenses of $72 million, quarter over quarter, as many of the costs associated with our three-phase CP2 project were capitalized. For the full year 2025, income from operations was $5.2 billion, up $3.4 billion from $1.8 billion in 2024. Our net income attributable to common stockholders, which we will refer to as net income, was $1.1 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, a $196 million increase from the $871 million in Q4 2024. Higher interest expense and changes in interest rate swaps negatively impacted Q4 results year over year by $330 million and $476 million, respectively. For full year 2025, net income was $2.3 billion, up $0.8 billion from $1.5 billion in 2024. Shifting to consolidated adjusted EBITDA, We earned $2.0 billion during the fourth quarter of 2025, a $1.3 billion or 191% increase from $688 million in Q4 2024. This increase in consolidated adjusted EBITDA was driven chiefly by higher sales volumes, partially offset by lower prices. For the full year 2025 consolidated adjusted EBITDA, we earned $6.3 billion, a $4.2 billion or 198% increase from $2.1 billion in 2024. The increase in consolidated adjusted EBITDA was again driven chiefly by higher sales volumes, partially offset by lower prices. Our projects exported a total of 128 cargoes at Q4 2020. which increased by 95 cargoes compared with the same period in 2024. Of these cargoes, 478 TBTU of volumes are reflected in our results for Q4 2025, more than tripling production compared with 128 TBTU in Q4 2024. I would also like to call out several additional financial updates. The company issued $3 billion of Plaquemines notes in the quarter, which in combination with the proceeds from interest rate swap breakages, we used to repay $3.2 billion of the Plaquemines construction loan. For the year, we raised $33 billion in support of our development and to refinance existing debt. Also during the quarter, we secured a new $2 billion corporate revolving credit facility, which was undrawn at year end. For the full year 2025, we reduced total leverage at Calcasieu Pass by $190 million, and at Plaquemines, we reduced total leverage by $919 million. Moving to project performance and forward guidance, on page 25, we are looking to produce between 486 to 527 cargoes from both facilities in 2026. And, including volume sold under our long-term SPAs, we have now contracted 69% of potential 2026 cargoes. In the fourth quarter at Calcasieu Pass, on the 38 cargoes exported, we realized an implied weighted average liquefaction fee of $2.01 per MMBTU, which incorporates arbitration-related reserves. For 2026, based on average liquefaction fees achieved from SPAs and excess cargoes sold on a forward basis to date, we expect an implied weighted average liquefaction fee of $1.98 per MMBTU at Calcasieu Pass, including an adjustment for arbitration reserves. For the full year 2026, we expect to export 145 to 156 cargoes. At Plaquemines, the facility exported 90 cargoes at a realized weighted average liquefaction fee of $6.02 per MBTU on our commissioning cargoes during the fourth quarter, which was negatively impacted by a brief period of margin compression in December. As Henry Hub prices escalated, shipping day rates increased and TTF remained largely static. The shipping impact was partially mitigated by our owned and chartered fleet, demonstrating the advantages of maintaining a fleet of controlled vessels. In total, Lachman's exported 234 cargoes in 2025, which we expect to rise to 341 to 371 cargoes in 2026. This wider-than-normal range of potential production is driven by the inherent variability in the commissioning process, as we prioritize the completion of construction and commissioning and address any remediation items through the startup process, which may cause brief periods of interruption. Thus far, including phase one COD in Q4, Plaquemines has contracted 59% of potential cargoes for the year, capturing a weighted average liquefaction fee of $4.05 on those contracted commissioning cargoes and fourth quarter SPA cargoes. As you see on page 26, based on this cargo count, we are providing consolidated EBITDA guidance for a range of $5.2 to $5.8 billion for 2026. This range assumes a liquefaction fee of $5 to $6 per MMBTU for cargoes remaining to be sold over 2026, consistent with current TTF and JCAM forward price expectations as of Friday. On average, if fixed liquefaction fees over the remainder of 2026 increase or decrease by $1 per MBTU, we expect our consolidated adjusted EBITDA range to adjust accordingly by $575 to $625 million. While we do not typically provide quarterly consolidated adjusted guidance and do not intend to do so in future quarters, as you'll see on page 27, we did want to provide some color with respect to the impact of winter storm fern, as well as the residual impact of margin compression in late Q4 2025. Relative to a $5.50 per MMBTU liquefaction fee on our available capacity, we estimate higher Henry Hub prices, the absence of several foregone cargoes, and basis impact at Plaquemines will have had approximately a $500 million impact on Q1 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA, which we now expect to range from $1.15 billion to $1.25 billion. I will now turn the call back over to Mike.

Thanks, Jack. Before I turn to questions, I want to address the concerning situation unfolding in the Middle East. We are monitoring developments closely and hoping for the safety and security of all Americans and everyone else in the region. The events over the weekend have had a strong impact on global energy markets. With the largest available incremental LNG capacity in the world, the United States will play a critical role during this historic disruption in the markets. Venture Global stands ready to help keep the market stabilized and supplied. I'll now stand by for our questions.

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star one again. Please pick up your handset when asking a question. And if you're muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question will be coming from the line of John McKay from Goldman Sachs. John, your line is now open.

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thank you for the time. Good morning. Mike, can we start on the macro? I know you just touched on it right here. Maybe just any perspective on what you guys are seeing in the market right now. what are you watching for a read on what's going on, how long the Qatar disruptions could last, et cetera, and then kind of connected to all of this, just walk us through a little bit of what your ability to transact against these current prices could look like. Thanks.

Yeah, no, obviously it's, uh, it's, it's a sad situation in the, in the middle East and, and, uh, We're hoping for a fast recovery. We have a very long-term view on the market, which is that low and stable LNG prices increase demand over time, and our business model is designed to deliver low-cost LNG into the market. In the short term, the higher prices are... you know, helpful for our spreads, obviously. We probably have the largest number of available cargoes in the market. You know, on Friday, it was us and Qatar that had the largest available volumes. And so with Qatar for the moment turned off, and potentially damaged. The market's waiting to see if there can be an estimate on when it can turn back on and the ships can start to flow through. Obviously, the price in the market with physical commodities is based upon the price of the last available physical cargo. And the market's going to take a few days, I think, to digest what that looks like. Europe, as you know, has been and is at fairly low historic levels of storage. And so this is not helpful timing, though spring is around the corner in a few weeks here. So that should help there. There are markets in Asia that are also heavily reliant on Qatar supply and And every day that ships can't flow through, that creates a lot of backup and incremental demand. We are unique also in that we have our own fleet of ships. With owned and leased, we're 10 ships. And we, excuse me, nine ships. We take delivery of two more here in coming months. We're uniquely able to move cargoes with our own vessels in this market while TTF and JKM have spiked. So I have shipping rates. And so shipping is going to play a very critical role in kind of support of the market and having impact on the ability to move the cargoes.

I appreciate that, Mike. I want to look a little longer or medium term through the back of the decade. You guys are laying out a pretty large construction plan, a fair amount of CapEx, of course, associated with that. Can you again walk us through kind of what your funding plans look like right now and how much of that plan to get to, you know, mid 80s or somewhere into the 80s on capacity is based on an assumption of higher prices in the market? Thanks.

None of it's based on higher prices. We can comfortably execute it with attractive returns at the long-term contracts that we have and the ones that we're working on and that price on the commissioning cargos as well. We're working, as we said, to hopefully finish up the the second phase FID for CP2. And as we got it to, we currently don't expect to use any parent that preferred or common equity just at the project level construction loans and retained earnings. And for the bolt-ons, which after the second phase of CP2 is incremental kind of 13 plus MTPA, We expect, again, to be able to use retained earnings and construction loans leveraging incremental contracts as well. And so from a capital standpoint, our plan today and our expectation is that we'll be able to finance that incremental COPX without tapping capital materially again. and retaining 100% ownership of that growth. And that's, as I said in the opening statement, with those two bolt-on transactions would get us to that 90 cargoes a month in 2029. All right.

Thanks for your time. Appreciate it.

Yep.

Thank you for your question. Your next question comes from Manav Gupta from UBS. Your line is now open.

Good morning, Mike and team. My first question is we recently saw a filing by you which you basically indicate that you would be in a position to run PLAC even at 35 MTPA and maybe CP2 at 35. And I'm trying to understand how are you able to find these incremental volumes in your system? Is it the engineering, is it the design, is it operational efficiency, or the massive data operations that you have set up? Help us understand how are these incremental volumes available in the system.

Good morning, Manav. Thanks. We really designed the facilities to physically and safely be able to operate at that capacity of 35 MTPA if conditions support it. which means during the cold months, we're able to operate at that level. On an annual level, that would work out to around 31 MTPA for the year. And so the facility from a safety standpoint and a throughput capacity could operate at 35 for the whole year if it were cold for the whole year. But when you average it out, at that level it would operate 31 MTPA. The, the, the, The way we've achieved it is a combination of lots of adjustments we've made from CP1 to Plaquemines and CP2. And it's a combination of our managing pressure and our modularity and our controls. I would say it is almost all driven by the massive amount of data collection that we process. I think we're now capturing over 500,000 data collection points every 10 seconds, uh, between Coxie pass and Placomans. And we have a large, uh, data science team and AI programmers that consume that data and incorporate it into our operations and our process design. And it's, uh, we've achieved, you know, extraordinary dividends from it. So it's, we're, we're extremely, we're extremely pleased. We are able to, um, particularly cause we have so many trains and, and, um, that we operate now that we're able to experiment with changes in conditions and configuration that allow us to fine tune production.

Perfect. My next question, Mike, is more on your vision. We will see a big build out of LNG. How do you see venture global position in it? You are the low cost provider. We also see you as somewhat of an industry disruptor, which is basically going out there and asking a question that Why should it take six years to develop an energy project when it can be done in two or three years? And then the reason I'm also asking is there were some competing energy projects which are basically saying, OK, we don't actually want to do this anymore. Maybe that's a function of they really cannot compete against people like you. So help us understand your vision for the company in the massive energy build out that we will see in the next four or five years.

Thanks, Manav. You know, I think our space is the same as many other spaces. When there are new business models and disruption in different categories, the incumbents and existing parts of the market react to it. And so, you know, we obviously in our industry all produce the identical product, the same liquid methane commodity, and it's largely differentiated on price. And we we do have a significant price and speed advantage. And we are bringing on large volumes of the cheapest liquefaction in the market, we believe. And that will inevitably have an impact on on people making decisions to invest capital to expand production capacity that in some cases would be multiples more expensive than what we're bringing on. And so we do expect it to have a deterrent impact as we come into the market. And we will, you know, in the future, because we're bringing it on volumes at scale, we'll have a positive impact on lowering the price. which, as I mentioned a few minutes ago, we like because part of our mission and part of the satisfaction we get out of what we're doing and working so hard is to lower global energy prices. And over time, that fundamentally increases demand for us. And since we're able to add so much more volume, we make money for shareholders with volume, even if prices compress significantly. Thank you.

Thank you very much for your question. Your next question comes from Elvira Scotto from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Hey, thanks. Good morning. I know you talked a little bit about the macro, but maybe a little bit more here, especially as there are concerns around a supply glut. I mean, obviously, current events notwithstanding. But You know, you talk about lower prices driving demand and coal to gas switching. Can you talk a little bit more about that? And prior to the events of this weekend, were you actually seeing incremental demand as TTF for global prices move lower?

Yeah, no, thanks for that question because that is actually one of the important things that we wanted to talk about on this call is when we look at the market in the next four, five, six years, we see when you map out the new projects that are projected to come online, in demand that's the same or slightly below what it's tracked for the last 10, 15 years, which is over 5% annual growth, that the market is in balance to a little bit short in the next few years, but then in the early 2030s is very short. And of course, if projects are delayed, then that short gets more significant. And even with that current balance, which the market, you know, all can see the projects that are coming, the market, you know, net spread today as of Friday was between five and $6. And, you know, as we announced this morning, we just did a very attractive five-year deal, um, at BGC and we're, we're working on more of them now, uh, that really belies the argument that there's, um, terrible spread compression coming. And so we think that based on what we see in the market and demand, that in fact, the markets look really steady. Over time, the replacement cost of liquefaction capacity is going to set what the floor price is. And we think the global cost of new liquefaction capacity is more north of $2,000 a ton when you take global costs into account. And at that price, you really need 350 to 450 minimum for long-term contract prices to support returns. Now, on the question of downside protection, I think it's obviously empirical that when energy prices go down, demand goes up. It's been the case in human history other than pandemics. And so then the question is, is there a physical infrastructure in place that allows for increased demand as prices go down? And the answer is absolutely yes. The market today, has a lot more regas capacity than it utilizes. I think in the next couple of years, the market will approach over 1500 million tons of regas capacity globally. And, you know, a good estimate for 2030 market supplies around 620 MTPA. And so the market's almost, triple regas capacity relative to supply. So there's plenty of capacity for prices to have an impact on demand as they go, as they go, as they go down. And we, we also always like to point out, you know, what's the, what's the converted price of the delivered fuel to a market and to electricity. And, you know, at a $10 MBTU price into a, into china for example or asian markets that's you know six seven cents or so uh eight cents depending on the market kilowatt hour electricity that's that's extremely attractive similar for europe and historically um electricity prices and you know like like corollary fuel prices at that level um are bought at full production capacity So we're very optimistic on what the prices are going to be in the next few years. And we're seeing it in our contracting activity. We don't need it to be there, but we just believe that it will average there and average higher. And as I said in the script I just read, because we're adding so much volume of liquefaction trains at Even low prices, you know, at $3 per MBBTU in the next few years, that could equate to $11 billion of EBITDA on 29 with the extra trains. And at $5, which we think is very possible too, that would be $17 billion, which is a reflection of just the massive scale of trains that we keep adding. I know that was a walkabout, Avira. Hopefully that was helpful.

Yeah, no, that was very helpful. And then you touched on it a little bit, but on the contracting side, so you announced these two new contracts in the past few days, the 20-year SPA with Hanwha and the five-year contract with Trafigura. Can you talk a little bit about pricing around those contracts? And then how do you see the appetite for long-term SPAs? And then just finally, remind us the mix that you target between long-term, medium-term, and short-term contracts?

The Hanlock contract, we haven't disclosed any specific prices on it, but it's consistent with what we've been doing recently in our contracting. And both our 20-year and our midterm contracting activity is very busy. And we expect more deals in coming quarters. on both 20 years and on the midterm. The midterm contract is, I'm not going to give the exact price, but it's north of a $3 net spread over five years. And so relative to the 20-year contract price, very attractive for us. And again, just illustrates the demand and pricing in the market relative to what some people view as significant compression coming, which we disagree with. But we're very, very busy on both midterm and long-term contracts, and we expect that to continue. We are approaching, we're almost at 50 million tons of 20-year contracts, which is... right about the, and you can't see me, but I'm doing air quotes, is right around the nameplate capacity of CP1 Plaquemines and CP2. So on a traditional nameplate capacity, which doesn't apply to us anymore, we're almost fully contracted on a 20 year basis, which allows us to right size the construction loans that we use to support those projects at coverage levels that give us the same debt coverage that the rating agencies want to see that will allow us to be investment grade around COD for the projects. And so from a debt, coverage, both, you know, debt amortization and, and interest coverage were the same as the rest of the market. But of course we produce a lot more than that. That gives us a enormous upside optionality. And, you know, I'm doing air quotes again, you know, very free to cheap, uh, cheap capacity. And so that, uh, uh, that, that will begin to pay us dividends. And I mentioned it briefly, uh, in the script, but in the case of, uh, CP2, we invested heavily and, um, foresaw the opportunity almost three years ago now, um, to access, uh, gas directly from the Permian from Waha all the way to CP2. And we've invested massively in large scale nitrogen removal units. I think it'll end up being over a billion dollars that's been invested. And, um, and pipelines along lateral CPX and a Blackfin pipeline. The interconnects that takes us all the way to Katy and then transportation agreements that physically connect us to Waha. And that combined with the nitrogen removal unit make us unique as the only facility that can take massive direct volumes from Waha to our facility and handle the large amount of nitrogen efficiently. So we're feeling good about it. That was three years of engineering and design work and execution.

Great. Thank you very much.

Thank you very much for your question. Your next question comes from Chris Robertson from Deutsche Bank. Chris, your line is now open.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, Mike. Morning, Chris. Just like going back to the long-term SPA agreement signed this year and last, I know you're not commenting directly on pricing directly, but can you comment around the directionality, let's say, of the liquefaction fee over time? Has that been fairly range-bound over the past few quarters, or has that moved up kind of due to rising tides, lifts all ships type of market environment here?

We've been holding it steady deliberately because we're able to provide attractive returns at that price. And we're able to execute the volume of contracts that we want. But we're at a significant discount to where we think the rest of the market is getting priced. And we're going to maintain our levels. uh because we have a lot of volume that we can build very attractively at those price points and you know this is a culmination of you know 12 13 years of work for us to build out the team and the supply chain and the sites to be able to continue to do this and so we're we're We're going to continue to add the 20 year deals at prices that are very nice returns for us and allow us to continue to grab market share. We're excited to add that liquefaction trains very cost effectively that give us the higher volumes of production capacity that regardless of kind of the price volatility generate enormous amounts of free cash for us.

Thanks for that, Mike. Yeah, following up on a few of the points there, just looking at the expansionary nature of the CP2 and Plaquemines bullpens, how are you thinking about, is there a change in calculus a bit on the amount of long-term contracted coverage or nameplate capacity on long-term contract required by the lenders? I guess, if so, what are you targeting in terms of total contracted nameplate on those expansion projects? And how should we think about... expected capex on a dollar per MT basis, just given their nature of not being new build assets, but expansions?

So our, thank you for that question. Our primary focus after the second phase here of CP2 are the two discrete bolt-ons, one at CP2 and one at Plaquemines. And they're, you know, four, eight train, four block, eight train additions that marry up really well with the existing balance of plant. And as you said, allows us to do, um, it very cost effectively. So we expect it to be a significant discount to the already good price that are costs that we're able to achieve. And also we'll be able to build it faster because there's a lot less that goes with it. And, uh, and, and they're, they're each around six and a half million tons each. And, uh, After those, we'll watch the contracting progress of our 20-year deals and our five-year deals to see what the expansions are after that. But we're focused primarily on those two discrete projects because they are so much less expensive and so much faster. And we designed phases one and two for CP2 implacaments to anticipate them. And in particular for CP2, it's inside the existing wall and the, um, the pipe bracket, uh, connections are very short. Uh, it's very, it will go in very quickly and very efficiently, but that, that, uh, those bolt-ons will allow us to get to that kind of 81 to 85 MTPA, uh, in early 29. Uh, again, we need to keep pace with the permitting, but is, which is very good, uh, strong in this, in this, uh, in this environment. But, uh, with, uh, with our existing supply chain and our teams and our sites, we can layer that in very quickly and start to produce from them later in 28 and 29 that will, um, um, you know, get us to that, you know, roughly 90 cargoes loading a month in 2029.

Thank you, Mike. I appreciate the answers. I'll turn it over.

Thank you very much for your question. Your next question now comes from Greg Brody from the Bank of America.

Good morning, everybody.

Hey, Greg.

Good morning. Hey, good morning. I think just as you laid out very nicely that you don't have capital expectations at the holding company between equity and debt. Just talk a little bit sort of at the project level If things have changed a little bit, are you still planning on funding 50-50? And just talk about the appetite for banks to support that.

The appetite of the banks on the construction law side is extremely strong. The quality of the execution by the teams and the projects is appreciated by the banks. And since we're largely building identical things um, and process systems at all our, our facilities and projects, the, uh, the bank capital market can understand, understand it well and, and has great visibility into kind of tracking progress. And that's, uh, that supported us in having very efficient access to the, to the bank capital markets. And, uh, you know, we, we expect that to continue to be the case. We have, um, uh, already invested a lot of equity just from retained earnings into the second phase of CP2. And when we finance that second phase, it'll become one financing. And so we don't expect to have to add at this point capital from the parent to support it. So it'll be construction loans, existing capital invested in retained earnings. After that phase, this coming phase two, the bolt-ons are unique because they're less expensive and they turn on even faster. You know, don't hold me to this or don't invest based on this. It's a forward-looking statement, but, you know, it's roughly, you know, 20 months or so to turn on the bolt-ons because there's so much less kit that is required to do those bolt-ons. And so when you produce revenue so quickly and earning so quickly on those bolt-ons, it gives you a lot of flexibility in how you can finance at the project level of those sites. So the combination of speed and lower costs gives us lots of really attractive options about how to add it and how to contract it in the market.

Got it. And then maybe just last one for me. Obviously, you've had some success with the arbitrations as of late. Just how are you thinking about that as part of your funding plan? And just to the extent you settle anything, and just a reminder on timing for when you think we'll actually get some numbers from the BP process.

There is no hearing expected to be set for BP this year. So that process will play into next year, probably later next year before there's any further developments there. And we expect the, the next results on the arbitration front to, we, we, we, we can't predict them because we're, we're not in control of the deadlines, but in coming quarters and, on the back of the very successful unanimous result on the Repsol win, we remain positive on outlooks for the remaining arbitrations. And so we're hoping to largely have resolution in the next few quarters and have it all behind us.

I appreciate the time, guys. Thanks.

Thank you very much for your questions. There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Mike Sable, CEO, executive co-chairman and founder for closing remarks.

Thank you everybody. We appreciate the time this morning and, uh, we look forward to, uh, to conversations in coming days with, uh, with all our many of you and, uh, and, um, you know, we're, uh, We're going to be working hard for everybody through these challenging and volatile markets in parallel with all the construction activity that continues. So thanks again for the support and look forward to seeing and speaking with you soon.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.