This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.
2/21/2024
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to VISTA's fourth quarter 2023 earnings webcast. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask the question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to VISTA's strategic planning and investor relations officer, Alejandro Chernyakov.
Thanks, good morning everyone. We are happy to welcome you to VISTA's fourth quarter and full year 2023 results conference call. I am here with Miguel Galucho, VISTA's chairman and CEO, Pablo Verapinto, VISTA's CFO and Juan Garobi, VISTA's COO. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement on slide two. Please be advised that our remarks today, including the answers to your questions, may include forward looking statements. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from expectations contemplated by these remarks. Our financial figures are stated in US dollars and in accordance with international financial reporting standards, IFRS. However, during this call, we may discuss certain non-IFRS financial measures, such as adjusted EVDA and adjusted net income. Reconciliation of these measures to the closest IFRS measure can be found in the earnings release that we issued yesterday. Please check our website for further information. Our company, VISTA, is a Sociedad Anónima Bursátil de Capital Variable organized under the laws of Mexico, registered in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and the New York Stock Exchange. Our ticker is VISTA in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and BISD in the New York Stock Exchange. I will now turn the call over to Miguel.
Thanks, Ale. Good morning and welcome to this earnings call. We have an exceptional year in 2023. We have continued to deliver strong operational and financial results with double digit grow, improved reserve, total production and adjusted EVDA. We also secure oil misting capacity in key projects, which underpin our updated production target for 2026. Our outstanding performance was reflected by our stock price performance, which doubled during the year. I will now present our Q4 2023 results and then move on onto our full year results. During Q4, we continue to focus on drilling and completion activity in Bajada del Palo Oeste. This led to a sequential grow in total production, surpassing our consolidated production level prior to the transfer of the conventional asset in Q1 2023. Total production was 56.4 thousand BOE per day during the fourth quarter, 14% above sequentially and 60% above inter annually on a pro forma basis. Oil production was 48.5 thousand barrels of oil per day, 70% above the previous quarter and 80% percentage above the same quarter of last year, also on a pro forma basis. Total revenues during the quarter were 309 million dollars, 2% above the previous quarter. We continue reducing our lifting costs, reaching $4.3 dollars BOE during the quarter. Capital expenditure was 212 million dollars, mainly driven by 11 ways drill and seven ways completing during the quarter. In Q4 2023, adjusted EVDA was 280 million dollars, 43% above year over year, supported by the stable revenues and other operating income growth amid lower lifting costs. Adjusted income was 240 million dollars, implying a quarterly adjusted EPS or 2.5 dollars per share, mainly driven by higher adjusted EVDA and the positive impact of the reduction in the full year income tax. We recorded positive free cash flow, 107 million dollars during the quarter, driven by strong EVDA generation and normalization of working capital compared with the previous quarter. Net leverage ratio at the quarter end was a solid 0.46 times adjusted EVDA. I will now deep dive into our main operational and financial metrics of the quarter. Total production during Q4 2023 was 56.4 thousand BOE per day, driven by the time of 11 wells in Bajada El Palo Este during the quarter. This led to a sequential increase of 14%. On an inter annual basis, production increased 3%, reflecting that we have now surpassed the production level prior to the transfer of the conventional asset back in March 2023. On a pro forma basis, adjusting by the production of such asset, our total production growth was 16% year over year. During the quarter, we recorded an outstanding performance in oil production, which increased by 70% on a sequential basis and 80% on annual pro forma basis. On other hand, gas production decreased 2% quarter over quarter, impacting our Q4 total production target and the exit rate. This was mainly due to the fact that during the quarter, we tie in two parts in the northeast of Bajada El Palo Este, which has a lower gas to oil ratio than other parts of our acreage. During the fourth quarter of 2023, we continue in full development mode with 100% of the drilling and completion activity in Bajada El Palo Este. We tie in 11 wells during the quarter in part Bajada El Palo Este 19, 20 and 21. The tie ins boosted production in Q4 and led to an exit rate close to 60,000 BOEs per day. The tying of 23 new wells during the second semester of 2023 reflects full utilization of two drilling rigs and one sputter rig, with a run rate of 46 new wells per year in line with our 2024 plan, which we will discuss later on. During Q4, 2023, all revenues were stable year over year as oil production grow, offset lower realized prices. Total revenues were $309 million, 2% increase compared to previous quarter and 3% decline compared to Q4, 2022. This was mainly driven by lower gas production as discussed previously and 50% increase and 1% decline in gas prices. Sales to export market accounted for 49% of the oil volume and 53 of net oil revenues. We exported 2 million barrels of oil composed by 1.6 barrels through the Atlantic and 0.4 million barrels by pipeline to Chile. Realized oil price for the quarter averaged $67.8 per barrel. Down 2% year over year and flat compared to the previous quarter. The average realized domestic price was $63.7 per barrel while the realized export price was $74.2 per barrel. We are seeing good recovery in the domestic prices with crude in line with the $65 to $66 range for January and February, which is key to found our growth plan. Lifting cost was $22.3 million for the quarter, a 38% decrease compared to the same quarter of last year. Lifting cost per VOE was $4.3, a decrease of 40% compared to Q4, 2022. These results continue to reflect the positive impact of our new operating model, fully focused on our shale oil asset, following the transfer of the conventional asset in the first quarter of the year. On a sequential basis, lifting cost per VOE was down 11% as the ramp up of production volumes continued to the huge fixed cost. We expect this trend to continue during 2024. The devaluation of the peso of approximately 130% led to cost savings in the second half of December. We are still closely monitoring the full impact of this event on our lifting cost of Q1, 2024. A adjusted EVDA during Q4, 2023 was $288 million, an increase of 43% year over year. A adjusted EVDA performance was supported by production growth and lower lifting costs. It also includes $81 million in gains from repatriation of 27% of energy export proceeds at the blue chip swap exchange rate. This gain has been accounted for in other income. These benefits have been extended and currently allow us to repatriate 20% of our exports at blue chip swap rate. We continue to see an expansion of margins. A adjusted EVDA margin was 73% during the quarter, an inter-annual increase of 7% points. Note that we have added the other income from the repatriation of export proceeds at the blue chip to our revenues to calculate our adjusted EVDA margin. This provides a more accurate representation of our margins. For more detail, please see the earning note released yesterday afternoon. Net back during the quarter was $55.6 per VOE, a 39% increase year over year. During Q4, 2023, we have another positive free cash flow quarter. Cash from operating activities was $347 million, reflecting higher adjusted EVDA generation and normalization of working capital related to sale collections. Cash flow used in investing activities was $240 million, in line with the capital expenditures of $212 million and a $70 million increase in working capital related to CAPEC. Free cash flow during Q4, 2023 was therefore $107 million. Cash used in financing activities was $67 million, driven by the prepayment of local bonds adjusted by peso inflation, as well as bond series three in hard currency. Net leverage ratio stood at 0.46 times adjusted EVDA at quarter end. Cash at the end of the period was $213 million. We now move on to the full year results. During 2023, we made solid progress across our four strategic
levers.
We increased P1 reserves and well inventory, reflecting the growth potential and the quality of our asset base. P1 reserves increased 27% year over year to 319 million BOEs. Well inventory increased 28% year over year to 1,150 wealth, of which only 99 were on production at the end of 2023. We also deliver solid operational performance, maintaining our status as a leading operator in Baca Moerta. Total production was 51,000 BOEs per day, a 5% inter annual increase, or 80% on a pro forma basis, adjusted by the transfer of the conventional assets in March, 2023. Lifting cost was reduced 33% year over year to $5.1 per BOE. Our cost saving delivery was better than planned, reflecting a 7% improvement -a-vis our $5.5 per BOE guidance. Additionally, we made a strong progress in sustainability. We reduced emission intensity by 13% to 15.6 kilogram of CO2 equivalent, which placed our company in the best quartile compared to the comparable upstream player worldwide. I am also very proud of our safety track record. Total recordable incident rate, including employee and contractors, was below one every year for the last 40 years, with a 0.2 for 2023. Finally, during 2023, we continue to deliver robust total shareholder returns. Adjusted EVDA was $871 million, up 14% compared to 2022. Our stock price increased 115% from December 31st, 2022, up to date. As I mentioned previously, P1 reserves increased 27% compared to 2022 for a total of 318.5 million BOEs estimated at year end 2023. This implies a total reserves replacement ratio of 458% and 485% for oil. Roof reserves life increased by 20% to 17 years. Net additions were 85.5 million BOEs, driven by the activity in Bajada del Palo Oeste, where we added 40 new well locations, and Bajada del Palo Oeste, where we added 26 locations. This resulted in a total of 297 book well locations in our P1 reserves. The certified present value at 10% discount rate attributable to the company interest in P1 reserve is $3.3 billion, using a price assumption of $66.5 per barrel per oil, according to the SEC guidelines. During 2023, we also achieved significant operating milestones. We tie in 31 new wells, two above our original guidance. This drilling and completion activity boosted our total production, leading to an 18% increase year over year on a pro forma basis. Most of our drilling and completion activity in the first semester targeted the de-risking of our blocks. Solid productivity result in Aguila Mora, and Bajada del Palo Oeste allowed us to expand our inventory by 250 wells. During the year, we successfully secured the takeaway capacity to deliver on our 2026 plan. We obtained capacity in two key projects, 12.5 thousand barrels of oil per day in the Baca Morta North pipeline, and 31.5 thousand barrels of oil per day in the Old Elba expansion. The treatment plan in our development hub was expanded to 70 thousand barrels of oil per day. We are currently working on another project to increase total treatment capacity to 85 thousand barrels of oil per day before year end. In terms of export volumes, in 2023 we increased oil exports to 52% of total oil sales, up from 44% in 2022. This was boosted by higher production and the startup of exports to Chile, which reached 4.7 thousand barrels of oil per day in Q4 2023. During 2023, we also made solid progress in our emissions reduction and nature-based solution projects. Our decarbonization projects included the installation of a new vapor recovery unit, optimization of glycol dehydration process, and the addition of renewable to our energy metric among other projects. Implementation of such projects led to the reduction of a COP1 and 2 in greenhouse gas emissions by 30% year over year. As previously discussed, emission intensity was also reduced by 30% over the same period, to 15.6 kilos of CO2 equivalent per VOE. Regarding nature-based solutions, our subsidiary, IK, achieved significant milestone during the year. We finalized planting our flagship project in Rolomcue, with 2.5 million trees, and initiated soil preparation activities in a neighboring plot of land in Villa Senaida. We have initiated work in our forest conservation project in Chagoral, and also made good progress in regenerative agriculture and livestock projects. In parallel, we started the process to certify the carbon credit of our projects with VERA. We have consistently the previous strong financial metrics over the last three years, resulting in superior total shareholder returns. As has the DVDA increase by 14% year over year to $871 million in line with the midpoint of our original guidance. ROACE was 39% consistently delivering top tier return of capital in the energy sector. Adjusted EPS per share was $5.2, an increase of 24% compared to 2022, driven by an adjusted net income of $191 million. We maintained healthy financial ratios with gross leverage at 0.71 times adjusted DVDA, and net leverage at 0.46 times. This outstanding performance across all financial metrics is reflected in the evolution of our share price, which more than doubled since year end 2022 to this date, outperforming our peers in Latam after in space. I will now share our 2024 guidance. As discussed during our investor day last September, we plan to increase the number of tie-ins to 46 by utilizing our existing drilling and completion capacity in full. The entire drilling campaign will be focused on our development hub, with most wells in our flagship development in Bajada del Palo Oeste. Based on this activity, CAPEC is forecast to increase to $900 million in 2024. According to our model, this activity will boost our production to between 68 and 70,000 BOEs per day during 2024. We expect lifting costs to continue to decrease on the back on focus on efficiency and the dilution of fixed costs by additional production volumes. We are forecasting $4.5 per BOE in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast to increase to between 1 billion and 1.15 billion, using a realizable price of 65 to $70 per barrel. Finally, we expect to continue reducing our greenhouse gas emissions intensity during 2024 in line with our 2026 reduction targets. I will now summarize the key takeaways of today's presentation. During 2023, we deliver robust operation and financial performance. We double digit grow, improve reserve, total production, and adjusted EBITDA. The transfer of our conventional asset has converted VISTA into a fully focused -and-mortar company with lower costs and higher margins. Our robust performance during the year continues to prove our ability to deliver on our superior total shareholder return proposition, reflected by our peer-leading share price performance. We issue an updated strategic plan, supported by our large, high-quality inventory, our operating credentials, our existing drilling and completion capacity, and having secure ministering capacity to deliver on our production targets. In this respect, we are well on track to double our production to 100,000 BOEs per day by 2026. Our 2024 guidance is the first step in this direction. With production growth of 35% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 23%. We plan to deliver on our 2024 and 2026 targets using our own cash generation. Before we move to Q&A, I would like to thank our investors for their continuous support and the entire team at VISTA for their commitment and hard work during 2023. I look forward to an equally successful 2024 and seeing you in our next earnings call. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, simply press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw the question, press star one one again. One moment for our first question, please. All right, first question is from Bruno Montanari with Morgan Stanley, please proceed.
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Miguel, many great achievements in the year with the reserves, the cost evolution, and the financial results, which speaks for themselves. So I have two questions. One about, actually both about production, but the first question, there was a bit of a shortfall in production versus the original targets you had. I understand the gas issue you mentioned, but it seemed that for oil, there was also a little bit less production. So if you could add a little bit more color on why that happened and then what the company is doing to overcome that, that would be great. And then if you could discuss what more can you do in 2024? You mentioned that you're fully utilizing the existing equipment. So is there any optionality to bring more equipment to Argentina? What is the likelihood of that happening? So how should we think about these 68 to 70,000 barrels per day if you're more confident on reaching 70, if there is upside to that number? So any color there would also be super helpful. Thank you very much.
Hi Bruno. Thank you very much for your comment. And
regarding production,
yes,
first of all, I would say, I mean, we closed, let me give you a bit of explanation. We closed Q3 2023 at almost 50,000 barrels per day. At that time, we got we guide on a sequential grow of 20% for Q4. We achieved really not the 20%, we achieved an oil production increase of 70% quarter on quarter, but natural gas production decreased 2%. In oil we made very good effort to offset the lower production of the Q pilot that we mentioned before. The Q was a pilot and we were testing to frack one zone, eight wells at the same time. And clearly the intensity of the fracture, even though we are evaluating, it didn't give the result that we were expecting for. At the BOE level, the impact of 2% quarter of quarter in decreasing gas production, explained half of the quarter miss. Gas production decrease by two factor. One, basically the wells that we connected have lower gas oil ratio in the north east of Bajada del Paloeste. And also we have higher downtime of the legacy wells or the legacy conventional wells that we have in production. Regarding our 2024 guidance, we rated a target of 20,000 barrels per day. You should expect that Q1 2024 is at similar levels compared with Q4 2023. We plan to tie in this quarter 11 wells we have three of them already tied in. And as we tie in the rest toward the end of Q1, you should see the second half of the first half of Q2 with a robust production grow for Q2. Then from Q2 onwards, I think you should expect between 10 and 50% growth quarter on quarter, arriving around in Q4 to an average of 80,000 barrels per day. Regarding the activity, our current plan is to fully utilize all our contracted rigs. We have two working rigs and one spadder. We are working on potentially speeding up the tying of one or two pad that are included in 2024 plan, hiring and spot drilling and completion rig and completion capacity. So I think this one is pretty much is gonna happen. In parallel, we are looking and we are having discussion with several oil service company provider to see if we can bring more equipment in terms of drilling and completion capacity to the country. So that discussion is ongoing. So you can factor in the fact that we are going to have and contracting and spot drilling rig and some completion capacity for one or two pad. The other thing is, I will say, is under negotiation. We will see if we get the right conditions to really bring more equipment to the country.
Great, super clear. And just to confirm, this potential addition of new equipment would be upside to the existing drilling plan, right?
That's correct, Bruno.
Okay, super. Thanks again.
Thank
you.
One moment for our next question, please. It comes from the line of Tasso Vasconcelos, with UBS, please proceed. Hi, Miguel, hi Ali,
Auditing President. Thanks for taking my questions here. I have two questions on my side. The first one, it would be great to hear your thoughts on the government so far. What is going on better or worse than initially expected? And if it changes your company's expectations for the next one, two, three, four years, at an extent. My second question, looking forward, of course, one of the main drivers for the case is production growth. We already discussed it a bit on what's dependent on the company, the drilling campaign and so on. But of course, part of this increased production is dependent on investment in infrastructure. So it would also be great to hear your thoughts on how investment in increasing these outflow capacity throughout Argentina is going on. If they are all on track and if you see any risks, potential delays on these investments. Those are my questions, thank you.
Hi
Tasso, thank
you very much for your question and welcome to this call. I guess it's your first time, so good to have you here. Regardless, the first part of your question and how we see the government. So we have a very positive view on some of the proposed changes that the government is making. Such as no price intervention by the government and freedom of export. I believe both things are very good to attract investment to Argentina. Argentina have a very unique opportunity in terms of bringing more proceeds to Argentina through export and clearly these two initiatives will help a lot the country in terms of bringing more investment and of course, exporting more. Vista is an example of that. So we welcome this initiative, we support this initiative. I think the industry also was present at the Congress discussion through the president of a chamber that we have, the Astrin Companies, the CEPH and basically he verbalized that support with his president of the Congress. So that is pretty good. Regardless, infrastructure and the progress that we have on that, I think we are basically pretty much on track with the Chile connection and what we call Baca Muerta Norte that is in place and we are supporting the volumes that we thought we will be supporting at the time that we thought we will be supporting. The one that is delayed is the project of Old El Val. So we are experiencing delayed on the phase one that should be finished, is supposed to finish the first quarter of 2024 and now it delayed to October. In Q1 2024, the full project supposed to deliver 120,000 barrels per day. Now we believe it's gonna be, we will get in in table 120,000, 150,000 in October. The pipeline was not an issue. We have an issue or they have an issue or speeding delay with the provision of pump. But this issue is resolved. So all the equipment is in hand. So in October, we supposed to have this 150,000 coming in line. The delay does not impact our plan. We have enough capacity in Old El Val open access today. We are actually using 44,000 barrels per day. We speak and also we have back on North and we have the tracking that give us flexibility. So we don't see any issues in infrastructure for 2024.
Great, all clear. Thank you.
Thank you. One moment for our next question, please.
Please. Confirm the line of Marina Mertens with
Latin Securities. Please proceed.
Hi, good morning and thank you for the update. I have two questions. First, considering all the changes going on in Argentina's politics and economy, the favorable outcomes at the Baja del Palo have and the recent announcement of increased food reserves. What would be the need to accelerate the already ambitious CAPEX plan? And that the omnibus bill play any role in this decision? And the other one on domestic prices. We observed a rebound in the price of the local barrel in December, which continued into January. What are you anticipating for the remainder of the year?
Hi, Marina. Thank you very much for your question. I will start with the second part. During basically the quarter, we were requested additional volume by local refineries. The price that we reflect by the earning reflect basically a mix between domestic sales, part of which we've been providing, as you said, the local price. And the additional volumes that were paid are export parity. Of course, we see as a positive trend that domestic market is willing to validate export parity. And we work on everything that is moving that direction. Regarding to additional CAPEX, I mean, our plan for 2024, I would say this ambition is enough. The growth that we are aiming for is probably one of the highest in the last year, is 35%. So therefore, I would say there's probably little room to aim a bit higher. Now, if you ask me one thing that going forward, we help to continue those levels of growth or even to aim higher will be free access to be able to repatriate dividends or proceeds. Anything in terms of freeing the controls that we have today in Argentina, clearly we resonate with investor, with us, and we create additional growth.
Great, thank you.
You're
welcome.
Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. Daniel, you're on the line. And it comes from the line of Daniel Guardiola with BTG Bactroll. Please proceed.
Thank you and good morning, guys. And congrats for the results. I have a couple of questions for my end. The first one is on the capital structure of the company. I mean, clearly right now, you're running a very under levered balance sheet, which makes sense considering that most of your operations are in Argentina, but bearing in mind that the macroeconomic environment may improve towards the second half of the year, you're having a better visibility in terms of pricing dynamics. Would you consider this structure, this low leverage to be suboptimal? And can you share with us what would be, you know, for you guys an optimal capital structure? So that would be my first question. And my second question is regarding growth. I mean, I understand your 2024 plan is already a very ambitious one. But looking beyond 2024, what I'm seeing is that if a comorita is a very concentrated basing with a few players, with not a lot of opportunities, especially inorganic opportunities. And I wanted to know if you're taking a look at the current process that Exxon is running to basically sell their back and work assets. That would be my two questions.
Hi, Daniel, sorry I was in mute.
First of all, also welcome you to this call. And thank you very much for your question. As you mentioned, I mean, we feel very comfortable at the current stage with the way that we run the company leverage wise. And that's also you correctly mentioned the room for us to have a bit more of leverage. But for that we have to have a reason. As you also mentioned, I mean, our growth program is super ambition. And we have the luxury to grow using our own cashflow generation. And I think that has been somehow recognized by the market and is part of what you see on the evolution of the stock price of Vista. I believe is related to the way that we run the company. That doesn't mean, as you said, if they change, there's important change in context that we can basically aim for further grow and have a different leverage ratio going forward. One of the things that could, for example, change the dynamics is that we have an acquisition. And of course, we are always active on that front. We are very active in terms of looking for new opportunities. In the particular case that you mentioned, yes, I mean, they have interest assets. And yes, we are looking into that. Probably nothing more that I can comment at this stage. Just the fact that, yes, we look every single opportunity that allows in Baca Morta that is our turf.
Thank you. Can I squeeze
in an additional question?
Yes, Daniel, go ahead.
Regarding your cost structure, you have done a terrific job streamlining your cost structure, bringing down your lifting costs from 13 or 12 and a half, five years ago to very low levels right now, close to 4.5%. 4.3, 4.4. Do you foresee additional room to streamline your overall cost structure, not only lifting, but maybe also, you know, SG&A?
Yeah. Yes, look at that. Yeah, we come from a long way of reducing, particularly the lifting costs. And I believe we have little room left as the result of the growing production. Most of the lifting costs, probably 70% of the lifting costs structure is thick cost. So as we grow production, we will be diluting part of that cost, 70% of those. So I think we have a little room going forward, but I will say also that we are achieving the technical limit on things that we can do. So the reduction that you will see in lifting costs is going to be more asymptotic to a number and not big reduction as we experienced at the beginning.
Understood, thank you very much. You're very welcome.
Thank you. One moment for our next question. And as a reminder, to ask a question, simply press star, one, one to get in the queue. Our next question is from Paula LaGreca with TPCG. Please proceed.
Hi, thank you for taking my question.
I would like to know what was the reason why crude oil exports declining for Q23 in terms of volume salt. Was it because of an increasing crude oil demand from local refineries? So you
were limited to exports.
Hi,
Paula.
Look at, I think there was two reasons why that happened. One is a matter of stock at the end of the year in the terminal that basically we experience almost every year. And the second part is related to the fact that the oil is not being used as a product that yes, we have more demand on the local market, a bit of more demand in the local market that has explained before we sold our export parity. So this is pretty much the reason.
Thank
you. One moment for our next question. And it comes from the line of Andres Felipe Cardona with CT, please proceed.
Hi, good morning, everyone. Miguel, Pablo, Ali, congratulations on the solid results. And we have two very quick questions and perhaps one more detail. So the first is what is the implied realization price for the local sales or the domestic sales? The second one is what is the assumption in terms of export taxes? And if the export tax remain, sorry, what is the assumption of volumes exported and if the export tax remain at 8% at the end? And the more detailed question is why to consider M&A and not accelerate on the existing portfolio? I mean, you have close to 1,150 drill locations. Why to pursue M&A at this stage?
Thank you. Andres, hi Andres.
This is Miguel. So the line was not so good, but I think I managed to listen. So the Q1 local prices that we are seeing so far is 66. So it's quite good. Export tax today is 8%. And I think there was a third question related to.
Yes, Miguel, the question on the local crude sale prices, what is incorporated in the guidance? And the last question was why to consider M&A at this point and not accelerate on the existing portfolio even you have over 1,100 drill locations, right?
Okay. Yeah, sorry Andres, the line is not so good, but again, I mean, in terms of pricing, what we run in our plan was between 65 and 70 total. This is real life price. Today we are looking at the local price, what the refinery is paying for us, 66. This is Q1, okay? Now our guidance was a plan between $1 billion Revidah and $1,150 Revidah. Look at the range, price range of real life pricing, 65 to 70, real life pricing. Local price, Q1, 66 today. In terms of M&A, I don't think you will see anything that will impact our planning during 2024, okay? And as I mentioned before, we are basically active M&A wise, as have we been in the past, evaluating opportunities that are today in place that mainly is one that was the question I don't remember from who before.
Thank you, Miguel.
You're
welcome.
Thank you. One moment for our last question, please. It comes from the line of Alejandro de Michalis with Jeffreys, please proceed.
Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my call and congratulations on the call. Just one quick question, Miguel. You're talking about accelerating production, if you can, or M&A and so on. Can you talk about how you see potentially to bring in partners into your acreage? If that's something that in the current situation of Argentina, improving conditions in Argentina that you could see feasible?
Hi, Alejandro. Yeah,
thank you for your question. I mean, yes, when we talk about M&A, we consider everything. As you know, we have today, our activities concentrating in what we call the development hub. And the development hub is Aguada Federal, Baja del Paloeste, and Baja del Paloeste now became part of the development hub. So everything that we have in the north, particularly Aguila Mora, is a place that in the future, yes, we could consider to bring a partner to add capital. We are very well, I mean, we are recognized and we are very well positioned as a low-cost, low-carbon and reputable operator. So yes, when we look at M&A, this is something that we could consider in the future.
That's great.
Thank you. You're welcome.
Thank you. And with that, we conclude the Q&A session. I will turn the call back to Miguel Galuzio for final comments.
Well, guys, thank you very much for participating, for your question, for the support, and looking forward to see you next quarter.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. You may now
disconnect.
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank
you. Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to VISTA's fourth quarter, 2023 earnings webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask the question during the session, you will need to press star, one, one, on your keyboard, or your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, press star, one, one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to VISTA's strategic planning and investor relations officer, Alejandro Chernyakov.
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. We are happy to welcome you to VISTA's fourth quarter and full year 2023 results conference call. I am here with Miguel Galucho, VISTA's chairman and CEO, Pablo Berapinto, VISTA's CFO, and Juan Garobi, VISTA's COO. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement on slide two. Please be advised that our remarks today, including the answers to your questions, may include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from expectations contemplated by these remarks. Our financial figures are stated in US dollars and in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS. However, during this call, we may discuss certain non-IFRS financial measures such as adjusted EVDA and adjusted net income. Reconciliation of these measures to the closest IFRS measure can be found in the earnings release that we issued yesterday. Please check our website for further information. Our company, VISTA, is a Sociedad Anónima Bursátil de Capital Variable organized under the laws of Mexico, registered in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and the New York Stock Exchange. Our ticker is VISTA in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and BISD in the New York Stock Exchange. I will now turn the call over to Miguel.
Thanks, Ale. Good morning and welcome to this earnings call. We have an exceptional year in 2023. We have continued to deliver strong operational and financial results. We doubled digit grow, improved reserve, total production and adjusted EVDA. We also secure oil misting capacity in key projects, which underpin our updated production target for 2026. Our outstanding performance was reflected by our stock price performance, which doubled during the year. I will now present our Q4 2023 results and then move on onto our full year results. During Q4, we continue to focus on drilling and completion activity in Bajada del Palo Oeste. This led to a sequential grow in total production, surpassing our consolidated production level prior to the transfer of the conventional asset in Q1 2023. Total production was 56.4 thousand VOEs per day during the fourth quarter, 14% above sequentially and 60% above inter annually on a pro forma basis. Oil production was 48.5 thousand barrels of oil per day, 70% above the previous quarter and 80% percent as above the same quarter of last year, also on a pro forma basis. Total revenues during the quarter were 309 million dollars, 2% above the previous quarter. We continue reducing our lifting costs, reaching $4.3 dollars per VOE during the quarter. Capital expenditure was 212 million dollars, mainly driven by 11 ways drill and seven ways completing during the quarter. In Q4 2023, adjusted EVDA was 288 million dollars, 43% above year over year, supported by the stable revenues and other operating income growth amid lower lifting costs. Adjusted income was 240 million dollars, implying a quarterly adjusted EPS or 2.5 dollars per share, mainly driven by higher adjusted EVDA and the positive impact of the reduction in the full year income tax. We recorded positive free cash flow, 107 million dollars during the quarter, driven by strong EVDA generation and normalization of working capital compared with the previous quarter. Net leverage ratio at the quarter end was a solid 0.46 times adjusted EVDA. I will now deep dive into our main operational and financial metrics of the quarter. Total production during Q4 2023 was 56.4 thousand VOE per day, driven by the time of 11 wells in Bajada del Palo Este during the quarter. This led to a sequential increase of 14%. On an inter-annual basis, production increased 3%, reflecting that we have now surpassed the production level prior to the transfer of the conventional asset back in March 2023. On a pro forma basis, adjusting by the production of such asset, our total production growth was 16% year over year. During the quarter, we recorded an outstanding performance in oil production, which increased by 70% on a sequential basis and 80% on annual pro forma basis. On other hand, gas production decreased 2% quarter over quarter, impacting our Q4 total production target and the exit rate. This was mainly due to the fact that during the quarter, we tie in two paths in the northeast of Bajada del Palo Este, which has a lower gas to oil ratio than other parts of our acreage. During the fourth quarter of 2023, we continue in full development mode with 100% of the drilling and completion activity in Bajada del Palo Este. We tie in 11 wells during the quarter in path Bajada del Palo Este 19, 20, and 21. The tie ins boosted production in Q4 and led to an exit rate close to 60,000 BOEs per day. The tie in of 23 new wells during the second semester of 2023 reflects full utilization of two drilling rigs and one sputter rig, with a run rate of 46 new wells per year in line with our 2024 plan, which we will discuss later on. During Q4, 2023, all revenues were stable year over year as oil production grow, offset lower realized prices. Total revenues were $309 million, 2% increase compared to previous quarter, and 3% decline compared to Q4, 2022. This was mainly driven by lower gas production, as discussed previously, and 50% decline in gas prices. Sales to export market accounted for 49% of the oil volume and 53% of net oil revenues. We exported 2 million barrels of oil, composed by 1.6 barrels through the Atlantic and 0.4 million barrels by pipeline to Chile. Realized oil price for the quarter averaged $67.8 per gallon per barrel, down 2% year over year, and flat compared to the previous quarter. The average realized domestic price was $63.7 per barrel, while the realized export price was $74.2 per barrel. We are seeing good recovery in the domestic prices with crude in line with the $65 to $66 range for January and February, which is key to found our growth plan. Lifting cost was $22.3 million for the quarter, a 38% decrease compared to the same quarter of last year. Lifting cost per VOE was $4.3, a decrease of 40% compared to Q4, 2022. These results continue to reflect the positive impact of our new operating model, fully focused on our shale oil asset, following the transfer of the conventional asset in the first quarter of the year. On a sequential basis, lifting cost per VOE was down 11%, as the ramp up of production volumes continued to the huge fixed cost. We expect this trend to continue during 2024. The devaluation of the peso of approximately 130% led to cost savings in the second half of December. We are still closely monitoring the full impact of this event on our lifting cost of Q1, 2024. A adjusted EVDA during Q4, 2023 was $288 million, an increase of 43% year over year. A adjusted EVDA performance was supported by production growth and lower lifting costs. It also includes $81 million in gains from repatriation of 27% of energy export proceeds at the blue chip swap exchange rate. This gain has been accounted for in other income. These benefits have been extended and currently allow us to repatriate 20% of our exports at blue chip swap rate. We continue to see an expansion of margins. A adjusted EVDA margin was 73% during the quarter, an inter-annual increase of 7% points. Note that we have added the other income from the repatriation of export proceeds at the blue chip to our revenues to calculate our adjusted EVDA margin. This provides a more accurate representation of our margins. For more detail, please see the earning note released yesterday afternoon. Net back during the quarter was $55.6 per VOE, a 39% increase year over year. During Q4, 2023, we have another positive free cash flow quarter. Cash from operating activities was $347 million, reflecting higher adjusted EVDA generation and normalization of working capital related to sale collections. Cash flow used in investing activities was $240 million, in line with the capital expenditures of $212 million and a $70 million increase in working capital related to CAPEC. Free cash flow during Q4, 2023 was therefore $107 million. Cash used in financing activities was $67 million, driven by the prepayment of local bonds adjusted by peso inflation, as well as bond series three in hard currency. Net leverage ratio stood at 0.46 times adjusted EVDA at quarter end. Cash at the end of the period was $213 million. We now move on to the full year results. During 2023, we made solid progress across our four strategic
levers.
We increased P1 reserves and well inventory, reflecting the growth potential and the quality of our asset base. P1 reserves increased 27% year over year to 319 million BOEs. Well inventory increased 28% year over year to 1,150 wealth, of which only 99 were on production at the end of 2023. We also deliver solid operational performance, maintaining our status as a leading operator in Vaca Muerta. Total production was 51,000 BOEs per day, a 5% inter annual increase, or 80% on a pro forma basis, adjusted by the transfer of the conventional assets in March, 2023. Lifting cost was reduced 33% year over year to $5.1 per BOE. Our cost saving delivery was better than planned, reflecting a 7% improvement -a-vis our $5.5 per BOE guidance. Additionally, we made a strong progress in sustainability. We reduced emission intensity by 13% to 15.6 kilogram of CO2 equivalent, which placed our company in the best quartile compared to the comparable upstream player worldwide. I am also very proud of our safety track record. Total recordable incident rate, including employee and contractors, was below one every year for the last four years, with a 0.2 for 2023. Finally, during 2023, we continue to deliver robust total shareholder returns. Adjusted EVDA was $871 million, up 14% compared to 2022. Our stock price increased 115% from December 31st, 2022, up to date. As I mentioned previously, P1 reserves increased 27% compared to 2022 for a total of 318.5 million BOEs estimated at year end 2023. This implies a total reserves replacement ratio of 458% and 485% for oil. Roof reserves life increased by 20% to 17 years. Net additions were 85.5 million BOEs, driven by the activity in Bajada del Palo Oeste, where we added 40 new well locations, and Bajada del Palo Oeste, where we added 26 locations. This resulted in a total of 297 book well locations in our P1 reserves. The certified present value at 10% discount rate attributable to the company interest in P1 reserves is $3.3 billion, using a price assumption of $66.5 per barrel per oil, according to the SEC guidelines. During 2023, we also achieved significant operating milestones. We tie in 31 new wells, two above our original guidance. This drilling and completion activity boosted our total production, leading to an 18% increase year over year on a pro forma basis. Most of our drilling and completion activity in the first semester targeted the de-risking of our blocks. Solid productivity result in Aguila Mora and Bajada del Palo Oeste allowed us to expand our inventory by 250 wells. During the year, we successfully secured the takeaway capacity to deliver on our 2026 plan. We obtained capacity in two key projects, 12.5 thousand barrels of oil per day in the Baca Morta North pipeline, and 31.5 thousand barrels of oil per day in the Old Elba expansion. The treatment plan in our development hub was expanded to 70 thousand barrels of oil per day. We are currently working on another project to increase total treatment capacity to 85 thousand barrels of oil per day before year end. In terms of export volumes, in 2023 we increased oil exports to 52% of total oil sales, up from 44% in 2022. This was boosted by higher production and the startup of exports to Chile, which reached 4.7 thousand barrels of oil per day in Q4 2023. During 2023, we also made solid progress in our emissions reduction and nature-based solution projects. Our decarbonization projects included the installation of a new vapor recovery unit, optimization of glycol dehydration process, and the addition of renewable to our energy, among other projects. Implementation of such projects led to the reduction of a COP1 and 2 in greenhouse gas emissions by 30% year over year. As previously discussed, emission intensity was also reduced by 30% over the same period, to 15.6 kilos of CO2 equivalent per VOE. Regarding nature-based solutions, our subsidiary, IK, achieved significant milestone during the year. We finalized planting our flagship project in Rolomcue, with 2.5 million trees, and initiated soil preparation activities in a neighboring plot of land in Villa Senaida. We have initiated work in our forest conservation project in Chagoral, and also made good progress in regenerative agriculture and livestock projects. In parallel, we started the process to certify the carbon credit of our projects with VERA. We have consistently the previous strong financial metrics over the last three years, resulting in superior total shareholder returns. As has the DVDA increase by 14% year over year to $871 million in line with the midpoint of our original guidance. ROACE was 39% consistently delivering top tier return of capital in the energy sector. Adjusted EPS per share was $5.2, an increase of 24% compared to 2022, driven by an adjusted net income of $191 million. We maintained healthy financial ratios with gross leverage at 0.71 times adjusted DVDA, and net leverage at 0.46 times. This outstanding performance across all financial metrics is reflected in the evolution of our share price, which more than doubled since year end 2022 to this date, outperforming our peers in Latam after in space. I will now share our 2024 guidance. As discussed during our investor day last September, we plan to increase the number of tie-ins to 46 by utilizing our existing drilling and completion capacity in full. The entire drilling campaign will be focused on our development hub, with most wealth in our flagship development in Bajada del Palo Oeste. Based on this activity, CAPEC is forecast to increase to $900 billion in 2024. According to our model, this activity will boost our production to between 68 and 70,000 BOEs per day during 2024. We expect lifting costs to continue to decrease on the back on focus on efficiency and the dilution of fixed costs by additional production volumes. We are forecasting $4.5 per BOE in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast to increase to between 1 billion and 1.15 billion, using a realized oil price of 65 to $70 per barrel. Finally, we expect to continue reducing our greenhouse gas emissions intensity during 2024 in line with our 2026 reduction targets. I will now summarize the key takeaways of today's presentation. During 2023, we deliver robust operational and financial performance. We double-digit grow, improve reserve, total production, and adjusted EBITDA. The transfer of our conventional asset has converted VISTA into a fully focused -and-forth company with lower costs and higher margins. Our robust performance during the year continues to prove our ability to deliver on our superior total shareholder return proposition, reflected by our peer-leading share price performance. We issue an updated strategic plan, supported by our large, high-quality inventory, our operating credentials, our existing drilling and completion capacity, and having secure manufacturing capacity to deliver on our production targets. In this respect, we are well on track to double our production to 100,000 BOEs per day by 2026. Our 2024 guidance is the first step in this direction. With production growth of 35% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 23%. We plan to deliver on our 2024 and 2026 targets using our own cash generation. Before we move to Q&A, I would like to thank our investors for their continuous support and the entire team at VISTA for their commitment and hard work during 2023. I look forward to an equally successful 2024 and seeing you in our next earnings call. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, simply press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw the question, press star one one again. One moment for our first question, please. All right, first question is from Bruno Montanari with Morgan Stanley, please proceed.
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Miguel, many great achievements in the year with the reserves, the cost evolution and the financial results, which speaks for themselves. So I have two questions. One about, actually both about production, but the first question, there was a bit of a shortfall in production versus the original targets you had. I understand the gas issue you mentioned, but it seemed that for oil, there was also a little bit less production. So if you could add a little bit more color on why that happened and then what the company is doing to overcome that, that would be great. And then if you could discuss what more can you do in 2024? You mentioned that you're fully utilizing the existing equipment. So is there any optionality to bring more equipment to Argentina? What is the likelihood of that happening? So how should we think about these 68 to 70,000 barrels per day if you're more confident on reaching 70, if there is upside to that number? So any color there would also be super helpful. Thank you very much.
Hi Bruno. Thank you very much for your comment and
regarding production.
Yes,
first of all, I will say, I mean, we closed, let me give you a bit of explanation. We closed Q3, 2023 at almost 50,000 barrels per day. At that time, we got we got on a sequential growth 20% for Q4. We achieved really not the 20%, we achieved an oil production increase of 70% quarter on quarter, but natural gas production decreased 2%. In oil we made very good effort to offset the lower production of the Q pilot that we mentioned before. The Q was a pilot and we were testing to frack one zone, eight wells at the same time. And clearly the intensity of the fracture, even though we are evaluating, it didn't give the result that we were expecting for. At the BOE level, the impact of 2% quarter on quarter in decreasing gas production, explained half of the quarter miss. Gas production decrease by two factor. One, basically the wells that we connected have lower gas oil ratio in the northeast of Bajada del Paloeste. And also we have higher downtime of the legacy wells or the legacy conventional wells that we have in production. Regarding our 2024 guidance, we rated a target of 20,000 barrels per day. You should expect that Q1 2024 is at similar levels compared with Q4 2023. We plan to tie in this quarter 11 wells. We have three of them already tied in. And as we tie in the rest toward the end of Q1, you should see the second half of, the first half of Q2 with a robust production growth for Q2. Then from Q2 onwards, I think you should expect between 10 and 50% growth quarter on quarter, arriving around in Q4 to an average of 80,000 barrels per day. Regarding the activity, our current plan is to fully utilize all our contracted rigs. We have two working rigs and one spatter. We are working on potentially speeding up the tying of one or two parts that are included in 2024 plan, hiring and spot drilling and completion rig and completion capacity. So I think this one is, pretty much is gonna happen. In parallel, we are looking, and we are having discussion with several oil service company provider to see if we can bring more equipment in terms of drilling and completion capacity to the country. So that discussion is ongoing. So you can factor in the fact that we are going to have a contracting and spot drilling rig and some completion capacity for one or two parts. The other thing is, I will say it's under negotiation. We will see if we get the right conditions to really bring more equipment to the country.
Great, super clear. And just to confirm, this potential addition of new equipment would be upside to the existing drilling plan, right?
That's correct, Bruno.
Okay, super. Thanks
again.
Thank you. One moment for our next
question, please. Hi, Miguel, hi,
Ali. How's the team present? Thanks for taking my questions here. I have two questions on my side. The first one, it would be great to hear your thoughts on the Middle East government so far. What is going on better or worse? What's the next one? The next one is the next one. The next one is the next one. The next one is the next one. The next one is the next one. The next one is the next one. The next one is the next one. The next one is the next one. The next one is the next one. The next one is the next one. The next one is the next one. The next one is the next one. The next one is the next one. So it would also be great to hear your thoughts on how investment in increasing these outflow capacity throughout Argentina is going on. If they are all on track, and if you see any risks, potential delays on these investments. Those are my questions. Thank you.
Hi Tasso.
Thank you very much for the question and welcome to this call. I guess it's your first time. So good to have you here. Regarding the first part of your question and how we see the government. So we have a very positive view on some of the proposed changes that the government is making. Such as no price intervention by the government and freedom of export. I believe both things are very good to attract investment to Argentina. Argentina has a very unique opportunity in terms of bringing more proceeds to Argentina through export. And clearly these two initiatives will help a lot the country in terms of bringing more investment and of course exporting more. And VISTA is an example of that. So we welcome this initiative. We support this initiative. I think the industry also was present at the Congress discussion through the president of a chamber that we have, the Astrin Companies, the CEPH, and basically he verbalized that support with his president of the Congress. So that is pretty good. Regarding infrastructure and the progress that we have on that, I think we are basically pretty much on track with the Chile connection and what we call Baca Muerta Norte that is in place. And we are supporting the volumes that we thought we would be supporting at the time that we thought we would be supporting. The one that is delayed is the project of Old El Val. So we are experiencing delay on the phase one that should be finished, it is supposed to finish the first quarter of 2024 and now it is delayed to October. In Q1 2024, the full project supposed to deliver 120,000 barrels per day. Now we believe it's gonna be, we will get in in table 120,000, 150,000 in October. The pipeline was not an issue. We have an issue or they have an issue or experience delay with the provision of pump. But this issue is resolved. So all equipment is in hand. So in October, we supposed to have this 150,000 coming in line. The delay does not impact our plan. We have enough capacity in Old El Val open access today. We are actually using 44,000 barrels per day. We speak and also we have Baca Muerta Norte and we have the tracking that give us flexibility. So we don't see any issues in infrastructure for 2024.
Great, all clear. Thank you.
Thank you. One moment for our next question,
please. Confirm the line of Marina Mertens with
Latin Securities. Please proceed.
Hi, good morning and thank you for the update. I have two questions. First, considering all the changes going on in Argentina's politics and economy, the favorable outcomes at the Baja del Palo have and the recent announcement of increased food reserves. What would be the need to accelerate the already ambitious CAPEX plan and does the omnibus bill play any role in this decision? And the other one on domestic prices. We observed a rebound in the price of the local barrel in December, which continued into January. What are you anticipating for the remainder of the year?
Hi, Marina. Thank you very much for your question. I will start with the second part. During basically the quarter, we were requested additional volume by local refineries. The price that we reflect by the earnings reflect basically a mix between domestic sales, part of which we've been providing, as you said, at the local price and the additional volumes that were paid at export parity. Of course, we see as a positive trend that the domestic market is willing to validate the export parity and we welcome everything that is moving in that direction. Regarding to additional CAPEX, I mean, our plan for 2024, I would say this ambition is enough. The growth that we are aiming for is probably one of the highest in the last year, is 35%. So therefore, I would say there's probably little room to aim a bit higher. Now, if you ask me, one thing that going forward will help to continue those levels of growth or even to aim higher will be free access to be able to repatriate dividends or proceeds. Anything in terms of freeing the controls that we have today in Argentina, clearly we resonate with investor, with us, and we create additional growth.
Great, thank you.
You're welcome.
Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. And it comes from the line of Daniel Guardiola with BTG Backwell. Please proceed.
Thank you and good morning, guys. And congrats for the results. I have a couple of questions for my end. The first one is on the capital structure of the company. I mean, clearly right now you're running a very under-levered balance sheet, which makes sense considering that most of your operations are in Argentina, but bear in mind that the macroeconomic environment may improve toward the second half of the year. You're having a better visibility in terms of pricing dynamics. Would you consider this structure, this low leverage to be suboptimal? And can you share with us what would be, for you guys, an optimal capital structure? So that would be my first question. And my second question is regarding growth. I mean, I understand your 2024 plan is already a very ambitious one. But looking beyond 2024, what I'm seeing is that I've a very concentrated basing with a few players with not a lot of opportunities, especially inorganic opportunities. And I wanted to know if you're taking a look at the current process that Exxon is running to basically sell their -and-forth assets. That would be my two questions.
Hi, Daniel. Sorry I was
in mute. First of all, also welcome you to this call. And thank you very much for your question. As you mentioned, I mean, we feel very comfortable at the current stage with the way that we run the company leverage-wise. And as also you correctly mentioned, there's room for us to have a bit more of leverage. But for that, we have to have a reason. As you also mentioned, I mean, our growth program is super ambitious. And we have the luxury to grow using our own cash flow generation. And I think that has been somehow recognized by the market and is part of what you see in the evolution of the stock price of Vista, I believe is related to the way that we run the company. That doesn't mean, as you said, if there's an important change in context that we can basically aim for further grow and have a different leverage ratio going forward. One of the things that could, for example, change the dynamics is that we have an acquisition. And of course, we are always active on that front. We are very active in terms of looking for new opportunities. In the particular case that you mentioned, yes, I mean, they have interest assets and yes, we are looking into that. Probably nothing more that I can comment at this stage. Just the fact that, yes, we look every single opportunity that arouse in Baca Morta that is our turf.
Thank you. Thank you. Can I squeeze in an additional
question?
Yes, Daniel, go ahead.
Regarding your cost structure, I mean, you have done a terrific job streamlining your cost structure, bringing down your lifting costs from 13 or 12 and a half, five years ago to very low levels right now, close to 4.3, 4.5. Do you foresee additional room to streamline your overall cost structure, not only lifting, but maybe also, you know, SG&A?
Yes, look, Daniel, we come from a long way of reducing, particularly the lifting costs. And I believe we have little room left as the result of the growth in production most of the lifting costs, probably 70% of the lifting cost structure is fixed costs. So as we grow production, we will be diluting part of that cost, 70% of those. So I think we have a little room going forward, but I will say also that we are achieving the technical limit on things that we can do. So the reduction that you will see in lifting costs is going to be more asymptotic to a number and not big reduction as we experienced at the beginning.
Understood, thank you very much. You're welcome.
Thank you. One moment for our next question. And as a reminder, to ask a question, simply press star 1-1 to get in the queue. Our next question is from Paula LaGreca with TPCG. Please proceed.
Hi, thank you for taking my question. I
would like to know what was the reason why crude oil exports declining for Q23 in terms of volume saw? Was it because of an increasing crude oil demand from local refineries?
So you were limited to exports. Hi, Paula. Look,
I think there were two reasons why that happened. One is a matter of stock at the end of the year in the terminal that basically we experience almost every year. And the second part is related to the fact that yes, we have more demand on the local market, a bit of more demand in the local market that as explained before, we sold our export parity. So this is pretty much the reason.
Thank you. One moment for our next question. And it comes from the line of Andres Felipe Cardona with CT. Please proceed.
Hi, good morning, everyone. Miguel, Pablo, Ali, congratulations on the solid results. And we have two very quick questions and perhaps one more detail. So the first is what is the implied realization price for the local sales or the domestic sales? The second one is what is the assumption in terms of export taxes and if the export tax remain... Sorry, what is the assumption of volumes exported and if the export tax remain at 8% at the end? And the more detailed question is why to consider M&A and not accelerate on the existing portfolio? You have close to 1,150 locations. Why to pursue M&A at this stage?
Thank you. Andres, hi
Andres. This is Miguel. So the line was not so good, but I think I managed to listen. So the Q1 local prices that we are seeing so far is 66. So it's quite good. Export tax today is 8%. And I think there was a third question related to...
Yes, Miguel, the question on the local crude sale prices, what is incorporated in the guidance? And the last question was why to consider M&A at this point and not accelerate on the existing portfolio even you have over 1,100 locations, right?
Okay. Yeah, sorry Andres, the line is not so good. But again, I mean, in terms of pricing, what we run in our plan was between 65 and 70 total. This is real life price. Today we are looking at the local price, what the refinery is paying for us, 66. This is Q1, okay? Now our guidance was a plan between $1 billion Revidar and $1,150 Revidar. Look at the range, price range of real life pricing, 65 to 70, real life pricing. Local price, Q1, 66 today. In terms of M&A, I don't think you will see anything that will impact our planning during 2024, okay? And as I mentioned before, we are basically active M&A wise as have we been in the past, evaluating opportunities that are today in place that mainly is one that was the question I don't remember from who before.
Thank you, Miguel.
You're
welcome.
Thank you. One moment for our last question, please. It comes from the line of Alejandro de Michalis with Jeffries, please proceed.
Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my call and congratulations on the call. Just one quick question, Miguel. You're talking about accelerating production if you can or M&A and so on. Can you talk about how you see potentially to bring in partners into your acreage? Is that something that in the current situation of Argentina, improving conditions in Argentina that you could see feasible?
Hi, Alejandro.
Yeah, thank you for your question. I mean, yes, when we talk about M&A, we consider everything. As you know, we have today, our activities concentrating in what we call the development hub. And the development hub is Aguada Federal, Baja del Palo Oeste, and Baja del Palo Oeste now became part of the development hub. So everything that we have in the north, particularly Aguila Mora, is a place that in the future, yes, we could consider to bring a partner to add capital. We are very well, I mean, we are recognized and we are very well positioned as a low cost, low carbon and reputable operator. So yes, when we look at M&A, this is something that we could consider in the future.
That's
great, thank you. You're welcome.
Thank you. And with that, we conclude the Q&A session. I will turn the call back to Miguel Galocio for final comments.
Well, guys, thank you very much for participating, for your question, for the support and looking forward to see you next quarter.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.