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spk01: Good morning, everyone. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Valeris' third quarter 2023 financial results conference call. All lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the company's presentation, we will open the call for your questions. Please note that we are recording this event. This event is also being broadcast live via webcast and can be accessed through the Valeris website. At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Ricardo Martinez, Investor Relations Director, Please go ahead, Ricardo.
spk13: Good morning, and thank you for joining the call. With me today is our President and CEO, Enrique Beltranena, our Airline Executive Vice President, Holger Blankestein, and our Chief Financial Officer, Jaime Poz. They will be discussing the company's quarterly results. Afterward, we will move on to your question. Please note that this call is for investors and analysts only. Before we begin, please remember that this call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. forward-looking statements are subject to several factors that could cause the company's results to differ materially from expectations. As described in the company's filings with the United States SEC and Mexico's CMDB, these statements speak only as of the day they are made, and Volaris undertakes no obligation to update or modify any forward-looking statement. As in our earnings pre-release, our numbers are in US dollars compared to last year's quarter, unless otherwise noted. And with that, I will turn the call over to Enrique.
spk03: Thank you, Ricardo, and everyone for joining us today. I want to begin by highlighting the quarter results compared to last year's figures. In the third quarter, ESMs increased by 10%, total operating revenue by 8%, EBIT by 11%, and EBITDA by 18%. Before we explain in detail the third quarter results, which Holger and Jaime will present, I'll address two key topics. The first one, Pratt & Whitney GTF engines preventive accelerated inspections, and the second one is Mexico City International Airport's lot restructuring and FAA's Category 1 capacity ramp-up plan. Regarding the first topic, the Pratt & Whitney Preventive Accelerated Inspections, I want to provide a clear and comprehensive overview of our current knowledge of the situation. This issue affects not only Volaris, but 42 airlines globally, including two in Mexico. Pratt & Whitney's parent company, RTX Corporation, revealed in July and September that the problem with the powder metal in a high-pressure turbine disk will necessitate accelerated inspections of GTF engines on Airbus A320neo families. Approximately 3,000 engines worldwide will undergo inspections from 2023 to 2026. These inspections are mandated by the FAA after a specific number of cycles, depending on the engine type. Currently, the FAA has only issued the first service instruction for the initial batch of engines. Volare's top priority has always been and will continue to be the safety of our ambassadors and customers. Thus, we are diligently following all preventive airworthiness directives. Our current visibility of the situation is limited to the initial batch as informed by RTX to the operators. The current estimate is that, depending on the work scope, it will take roughly 250 to 300 days on average for these engines to be removed and inspected and then returned to the operator to go back into service. RTXR estimates that Pratt & Whitney will take a financial hit of about $6 to $7 billion, of which 80% is customer support, namely financial compensation to carriers, and the remaining 20% is labor and material costs for the work. We are currently negotiating with Pratt & Whitney regarding their initial financial support for Volaris issues corresponding to this first batch of engines. We expect to reach an agreement with Pratt & Whitney in the next month and will reflect the negotiated compensation and support package on our financial statements once that agreement is in place. While there is still work to be done to finalize this initial agreement, I must commend Pratt & Whitney for their responsiveness and their acknowledgment for the financial strain on Volaris due to the current engine issues. They have actively collaborated with us to mitigate any significant impact on our financials. Based on guidance from Pat and Whitney, we expect there will be additional work required on the new engine lasting into 2024 and 2025 beyond the initial preventive inspections. While we are in discussions with Pratt & Whitney on how best to mitigate these ongoing issues and to ensure appropriate compensation and support to Volaris, we don't expect to have any clarity on the longer-term impact until first quarter of 2024. We will provide subsequent updates as appropriate. Today, Volaris fleet comprises 126 aircraft, of which 22A321 NEOs and 51A320 NEOs may be temporarily affected. Once the initial directive was published, Volaris and Pratt immediately identified the engines requiring preventive accelerating inspections. In September, there was an 8% reduction in ASMs and an estimated revenue impact of $18 million versus the forecast associated with our original published capacity. Thus, on October 10th, we revised our ASM growth for the full year 2023 to be 10% versus our previous guidance of approximately 13%. This translates to a fourth quarter 2023 total capacity remaining virtually flat compared to the fourth quarter of 22. Despite this capacity reduction in our forecast, we anticipate that our total operating revenue for the year will remain at the low end of this year's annual guidance provided in February, reaching approximately $3.2 billion. The situation is still evolving, but we anticipate engine inspections will limit capacity deployment from the engines to be inspected until they are completed by 2026. Management is looking for alternative solutions to mitigate the impact and will consider, for example, extending leases and identifying available CEO aircraft. It is premature to forecast a potential impact on our 2024 growth plan, but notwithstanding our mitigation initiatives, it is fair to assume that we will be forced to shrink our capacity in 2024 as a result of this engine issue. As we've done in the past, the Volaris management team will again do our best to respond to the challenge. We have designed the mitigation plan to manage changing variables and generate shareholder value. As an ultra-low-cost carrier, we're always focused on managing costs. We control and implementing strategic initiatives to offset the impact of those we do not control. In this case, these initiatives include, first, we're optimizing our network, by taking advantage of the recovery of Mexico's Cat 1 status, reducing growth to new markets and cutting capacity on underperforming routes. Second, we are maintaining strategies to stimulate demand and enhance ancillary penetration to drive unit revenues. Third, as noted above, we are currently negotiating lease extensions for several CO aircraft initially scheduled for delivery in 2024 and 2025. Fourth, We are implementing additional cost efficiency initiatives, which include reducing red delivery expenses in the short term. Fifth, on the OEM side, we are maintaining our new Airbus aircraft deliveries for 24 and 25, which currently includes 24 already financed aircraft. Additionally, we are actively pursuing further tactical additions in both aircraft and engines. RTX has stated, I quote, we're still able to deliver new engines and spare parts due to the deployment of the angle scan inspection. Moving on to the second key point on Mexico City International Airport and Cat 1, the Mexican Aviation Authority has announced a reduction at the Mexico City Airport from 52 to 43 aircraft slots per hour, effective January 8, 2024, after the holiday season ends. As a result of this adjustment, Olaris will have four aircraft lines available for redeployment to other domestic stations, primarily serving routes to the U.S. following the Cat 1 up. For 2023, our estimated EBITDA margin is anticipated to achieve approximately 26%. We will continue to execute diligently our mitigation plan in the short term to manage our costs around the reduced operating fleet size. while thoughtfully retaining key personnel so that we may resume our long run growth trajectory and superior cost profile when the engine inspection situation has passed. I will turn the call over to Holger to discuss our quarterly operating results and go forward network strategy.
spk15: Thank you Enrique and good morning. Let me highlight some critical aspects of Volare's performance in the third quarter. During the quarter, Our RPMs demonstrated robust growth at 9.2% outpacing ASMs, which grew at a rate of 8.2%. ASMs were aligned with our plans in July and August, while RPMs exceeded expectations. The positive momentum in our domestic passenger base, highlighted in our second quarter call through mid-July, continued throughout the quarter, resulting in solid domestic volumes and load factors. Domestic ASMs finished the quarter 2.2% higher year over year. International ASMs increased by 22%, driven by a substantial capacity reallocation to Central America, exceeding last year's levels. We catalyzed loads in our domestic network during the quarter, achieving outstanding load factors network-wide. Overall, we achieved a total load factor of 86.4% for the whole quarter, surpassing 85.6% recorded in the third quarter of 2022. In July and August, the Pratt situation affected capacity by approximately 3%. However, Parking the aircraft affected by the GTF engine issues in September resulted in a 1.9% decrease year-over-year in domestic ASMs, a reduction versus the original plan of 8%. Despite strong demand in the Mexico-US market, we experienced a load factor contraction of about 10 percentage points in Central America. This was mainly due to a substantial 74% year-over-year increase in capacity, a strategic move as part of our preparations for December, positioning us optimally for the upcoming high season. Notably, demand for VFR travel in the region remains robust. In spite of the challenges posed by the initial round of GTF engine inspections, Volaris demonstrated remarkable resilience in the operational performance and a solid net promoter score throughout the third quarter. This was evident in our strong metrics including volumes, efficient utilization, and notably ancillary revenue penetration. Despite a suboptimal operating environment, we delivered record quarterly aircraft utilization last quarter, a meaningful tailwind to ASM growth. Regarding unit revenue, TRASM for the quarter came in at 8.37 cents, a 2% increase year over year, helped by a stronger PESO. This result was driven by increased volumes and ancillary revenue per passenger, which grew by 26% year over year. This was partially offset by an average base fare of $48, 13% lower year on year, as we intentionally kept stimulating demand to maintain loads our ancillary strategy has delivered solid results and we are delighted with its rapid growth in the third quarter ancillary revenues reached 49 dollars per passenger setting a new quarterly record and representing significant progress we are fully dedicated to emphasizing this strategy acknowledging its crucial role in enhancing revenue and margins. During the third quarter, ancillary sales represented a remarkable 50% of our total operating revenues. Notably, our V Club membership program including the highly successful zero-ticket fare introduced this summer, experienced sustained growth. Passengers with V-Club memberships now constitute 18% of our total passengers, reflecting a significant increase from 8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. In addition to our understanding of bus switching passengers, we are just starting to drive the adoption of anti-civil products and encourage repeat service through our loyalty-based programs. Our affinity program with OXO, the largest retailer in Mexico, is still in its early stages, and we envision it evolving into the largest platform in Mexico, with Volaris as one of its cornerstones. Looking into the fourth quarter, we see solid bookings across our network as we approach the holiday season, with demand trends largely resembling the ones we saw in the third quarter. Regarding our network, Bular saw two critical developments in the third quarter with Mexico's recovery of Category 1 status and Pratt & Whitney's GTF engine inspection announcement. We were pleased to announce the recovery of Category 1 status on September 14th, a significant milestone achieved over two and a half years after the initial downgrade. In the past month, we've diligently pursued regulatory authorizations to increase our flight frequencies between Mexico and the U.S. Additionally, our co-chair partnership with Frontier is set to resume in December. Although the GTF engine preventative accelerated inspections have affected our ability to reallocate aircraft for U.S.-bound routes more than anticipated, We are on track to introduce four aircraft lines onto Mexico to US routes by December, representing a 19% increase in capacity compared to last year's levels. Our management team is also working to optimize our network for the parked aircraft expected in 2024 by identifying and reducing capacity along ramp-up and underperforming routes. Looking to the next year, we will focus on prioritizing our most profitable routes while doing so we will maintain a prudent approach to protecting wulari's long-term growth prospects our commitment involves preserving our leadership in our domestic core markets while leveraging the Category 1 upgrade for routes to the U.S. Simultaneously, we plan to scale back certain trunk routes. Specifically, we will be reducing capacity on ramp-up routes and at Mexico City International Airport in response to the aircraft movement's reduction taking effect on January 8th. I will now turn the call over to Heide Paus to discuss the financial performance for the quarter.
spk04: Thank you, Holger. For the third quarter of 2023, Volaris demonstrated financial performance that somewhat tracked behind our expectations. Total operating revenues came in at $848 million, a 10% increase compared to 2022, driven by sound demand across our network and ancillary revenue per passenger, which increased to $49 from $39 the previous year. However, this result was partially restrained by the impact of the preventive accelerated inspections of the GTF engines during September. Trust was $0.837, up 2% year-over-year. EBITDA for the quarter totaled $207 million, an 18% increase over the prior year's quarter. EBITDA margin was 24.4%, or an improvement of 1.6 percentage points from the third quarter of last year, favored by lower jet fuel prices and stronger peso. Volaris posted an EBIT of $39 million, up 11% for an even margin of 4.6%, flat versus 2022. Our custom ex-fuel was $4.91, an increase of 21%. The primary factor driving this increase was a strong appreciation of the Mexican peso compared to the prior year. As a reminder, Stronger peso has a net positive impact on our operating margins. Still, it is a headwind for unit cost, given the translation of peso-denominated costs into dollars in our consolidated P&L. The appreciation of the peso impacted our unit costs by 0.34 cents in the quarter. Excluding this effect, our Casomex fuel only increased 12% versus the third quarter of 2022. We managed costs as effectively as possible to achieve expectations that included cyclical pressures associated with maintenance and re-deliveries that we anticipated on our investor day last December. Moving to jet fuel, the average economic fuel cost during the quarter was $3.17 per gallon. While this equates to a 20% decrease year over year, given the lapping of last year's historic surge in fuel prices, jet fuel costs have risen rapidly since the second quarter of this year, up 17% sequentially. Given the recent geopolitical global circumstances, we expect to continue to experience volatility in jet fuel prices. During the quarter, we booked delivery cost accruals of $42.4 million and no sale and leaseback gains. Total CASM came to 7.98 cents for the third quarter, a 1.7% increase compared to the third quarter of 2022. For the third quarter, the net loss was $39 million. The cash flow provided by operating and financing activities in the third quarter was $145 million and $87 million respectively. Cash outflows used in investing were $138 million. CAPEX net of pre-delivery payments totaled $63 million in the quarter. Our strategy to maintain operational reliability drove investment of $11 million in acquiring spare engines. The capitalized major maintenance events expenses were $37 million for the quarter. Year-to-date, CAPEX net of pre-delivery payments stands at $186 million. For the full year, we continue to expect capex of $300 million net of pre-delivery payments. Volaris finished the quarter with a liquidity position of $764 million, representing 24% of the last four months operating revenue. Given the effects of the expected power aircraft on our capacity and network, it is particularly important to maintain a healthy cash position. In this sense, we secure financing for A-TESPR engines through finance leases for $109 million. Notably, part of these leases are structured under Japanese operating leases with call options, or Yolkos, representing a milestone for Volaris as this marks our first entry into these finance structures. Additionally, in the third quarter, Volaris successfully issued Mexican frost notes worth 1.5 billion Mexican pesos or 86 million dollars. This marks our third offering under the program approved by the CNBB and solidifies Volaris as a regular issuer in the Mexican debt capital markets. Overall, our balance sheet remains solid and flexible to comfortably meet our financial commitments for the foreseeable future. at the end of the third quarter our net depth to event ratio remained at three point five times as of september thirtieth our fleet comprised one hundred and twenty five aircraft up from a hundred and thirteen aircraft a year ago Seats per departure were 194 in the third quarter and our fleet had an average age of 5.6 years. We are working diligently on our fleet plan with Airbus and maintaining our original aircraft delivery plan which includes 24 aircraft already financed for 2024 and 2025. Our mitigation plan encompasses adjusting certain operating costs in anticipation of the expected reduction in our fleet. However, we must emphasize that we will be cautious in scaling back our operations. While we are committed to cost control, we also focus on long-term growth and are mindful of the required resources to support that future. Additionally, We aim to retain the flexibility to increase operations after the engine inspections are completed quickly. Although our unit costs will likely experience upward pressure due to capacity reductions, our commitment to maintaining world-class cost control remains unwavering. The company's net cost impact for the third quarter, which includes rounding compensation is forecasted to remain under control. Consequently, for the entire year, we expect the CASM ex-fuel to stay consistent with our original guidance of around US$4.00. CASM, both including and excluding fuel expenses, will be netted for the compensation received from Pratt & Whitney. However, it is important to note that each line in the P&L statement will continue to reflect the actual cost of the entire fleet, including the non-productive fleet. We updated our full year 2023 guidance two weeks ago to reflect part aircraft cancellations and higher fuel prices. As a reminder, our estimates for the full year are as follows. ASM growth of 10%, total operating revenues of $3.2 million, cash mix fuel of $4.8 cents, EBITDA margin of 26%, CAPEX of $300 million, net of finance, debt and repayments, net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.5 times. This outlook assumes an average for the full year foreign exchange rate of approximately $17.75 Mexican pesos per dollar, an average economic fuel price of approximately two point eighty per gallon now i will turn the call over to enrique for closing remarks
spk03: Thank you very much, Jaime. Olaris has managed numerous challenges and regulatory static in recent years, including slot reductions in Mexico City International Airport, a major COVID crisis, a downgrade in the category of the Mexican Aviation Authority, soaring fuel costs well above historical levels, shifts in aviation regulations, including discussions on cabotage, the transition to new airports, significant delays from OEMs, the complex implementation of new engine technologies, etc. The Volaris team has consistently responded with agility throughout these challenges, adapting the company effectively and achieving considerable success. At certain moments in the aviation industry, absolute clarity is impossible to assess. We firmly believe that the current situation is no exception. We're again prepared and motivated to manage the airline for a successful 2024. We will focus on managing our fleet to the best of our ability, putting safety first while focusing on profitability. Our operation may be smaller in the short term, but with continuing strong demand against reduced capacity in our markets and appropriate support from Pratt & Whitney, the next year has the potential to deliver an improved performance versus 2023. Thank you very much for listening. Operator, please open the line for questions.
spk01: Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. If you have a question, please press star 1-1 on your touchstone telephone at this or any time. If at any point your question is answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star 11 again. Questions will be taken in the order they are received. We ask that when you post your question that you pick up your handset to provide optimum sound quality. Those following the presentation via the webcast may post their questions on the platform. The management team will answer them during this call or the Valeris investor relations team will follow up after the conference call is finished. To send your questions via the webcast platform, click on the Ask a Question button and type your inquiry. Please hold while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from Duane Fenigworth with Evercore ISI. You may proceed.
spk00: Hey, good morning. I just wanted to ask you maybe like a RASM distribution or profitability distribution question. If you were to rank your routes kind of highest RASM to lowest RASM, how much lower is the bottom 10% to 15%? In other words, you haven't given 24 guidance here, but if you were to cut the bottom 10% to 15% of your capacity into next year, How much could your RASM improve? And certainly appreciate there are a lot of moving parts here with Category 1, et cetera, and maybe some shift to international. But maybe you could give us a sense for some sensitivity there.
spk03: We had a part of those routes that were not performing yet. on a profitable basis, okay? So that 10, 15% that you have in the lower tail include a good amount of routes that were in development. If you remember, we launched more than 40 routes this year that were maturing, okay? And they were part of that, okay? So what we're doing is, yes, you're absolutely right on making the question. We are cutting down that capacity. We're cutting down the non-profitable capacity and the less profitable routes. And that accounts, that probably improves our TRASM somehow between 5% to 8%.
spk15: Okay, appreciate it. There are a lot of new moving parts. It's also fair to assume that there will be some capacity reductions in the Mexican domestic market. since two out of the three airlines, which account for 70% of the market, are going to be affected by the Pratt & Whitney engine issue. So lots of moving parts in the domestic market, and we have cut one back in the international market. So we will see where things turn out once we have a full plan.
spk03: I think it is important to say, Duane, that our forecast for the year-end already includes the downtime of the aircrafts that we have forecasted for this quarter.
spk00: Okay. Thanks for those thoughts. And then just, just on compensation, I assume at a minimum, um, aircraft ownership and the cost to make these repairs, um, are on the table, but what about other costs, you know, staff, staff costs, presumably you hired to fly this capacity, you know, what, what other forms of compensation are on the table?
spk04: At the moment, we cannot comment on that. It's something that we are under negotiations with Pratt, but Pratt has behaved rational and supportive of the company, but we will share whenever we have the possibility of doing so.
spk03: I just want to remind you, Dwayne, that we do have a flexible labor contract based on a per-hour basis.
spk01: Okay. Thank you. Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Steven Trent with Citi. You may proceed.
spk07: Good morning, everybody, and thanks for taking my question. I was just curious. I know with Category 1 restored now, you should have more U.S.-bound flights. Any high-level color with respect to what proportion of your capacity is going to be Mexico to U.S. in 2024 versus what it looked like pre-pandemic with the view that maybe you're now still doing more Central America to U.S. nonstop, for example, just sort of trying to sort out how you're going to be thinking about your northbound capacity. Thank you.
spk15: So, Stephen, this is Holger. I can give you some color on the fourth quarter. We are planning to increase capacity in the international markets by around 19% for the fourth quarter, and that is driven by some additional U.S.-Mexico capacity. As Enrique mentioned, we are considering four aircraft lines that were previously operated in the domestic market to be shifted into the international market in the fourth quarter. And also to remind you that we added significant capacity to Central America, which includes Central America to the US flying. And that's up in the high double digits year over year. So we are focusing on growing our international capacity in the fourth quarter. For 2024, we are still sorting through the available capacity, and we will get back to you with some additional guidance on the split between domestic and international as we move through the fourth quarter.
spk07: Appreciate that, Holger. Thank you. And just a very quick follow-up, if I may. You know, I know the Mexican government has, I guess, resuscitated Mexicana. You know, when you look at their flight schedules, you know, to what extent do you guys have modest overlap or maybe no overlap at all?
spk06: You know, just trying to sort that out. Thank you.
spk15: So we have reviewed initial press notes of what their planned capacity is. All of the capacity that this new airline will launch is from the new airport, IFA, the New Mexico City Airport. And there is about half of the routes are currently overlapping with us from IFA, and half are completely new routes from IFA. So very limited overlap so far for us with the new airline.
spk07: Okay. Thanks again, Holger. I'll leave it there. I appreciate that, guys.
spk15: It would be in the 1% to 2% ASM overlap right now.
spk06: Perfect. Very helpful. Thanks very much.
spk01: Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Helene Becker with TD Cowan. You may proceed.
spk09: Thanks very much. Hi, everybody, and thank you for the time today. Earlier this week or late last week, it was reported by the three publicly traded airports in Mexico that they had reached an agreement on charges with the government. And the government put out a note that said airfare should come down 9% to 12% as a result of that agreement on charges. And I'm wondering how that will affect you guys, if at all.
spk03: So, Helene, we've been tracking the process with the airport groups very closely. And all I can say firm today, that it's firm today, is we received a letter that was sent by GAP to the DGIC or to the authority where they are proposing a reduction of 10% of to us effective that same day. So that may impact the total price of the tickets to the consumers.
spk09: Right. That's what I'm wondering, if that will affect you. So then the one word answer is yes, it will.
spk03: Yes, it will on a positive basis.
spk09: Because your costs are going down, but won't you have to reduce your ticket prices to the customer?
spk03: We're not affected by any of their changes. Our pricing structure is not being affected by any of their changes.
spk15: The tour charge is a pass-through charge that we put into the ticket price. So the total ticket price for the consumer that they pay on our website is going to be reduced, but not our actual fare or ancillary revenue.
spk09: Got it. Okay. Got it. I understand what you're saying now. Thank you. And then just on the club members, I heard you say that I think membership doubled in the past one year, which is very impressive. Is there a limit as to how many members you're willing to accept into the program or is it kind of an unlimited number?
spk15: No, Helene, we don't have a limit on how many V Club members we would like to welcome to our program. Ideally, the more members we have, the more captive audience we have, and the more repeat business we have. So we highly welcome this development.
spk09: Okay, thank you. Thank you very much.
spk01: Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Michael Lindenberg with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.
spk08: Hey, good morning, everyone. I guess out of your fleet of 125 airplanes, how many Airbuses are now grounded? And as you think out over the next 12 months or so, do you have sort of a rough sense of how many airplanes will be on the ground at any point in time?
spk03: Yes, as I said, Michael, we have 52 new engine aircrafts, which is kind of half of the fleet, okay? And given that this is now a revision every certain number of cycles, 2,800 cycles for the A321s and 3,800 cycles for the A320s, most of those aircrafts will go through the revision, through the preventive revisions.
spk08: Okay. How many are on the ground? Or maybe none are grounded.
spk03: Today, we have 16 aircraft grounded.
spk08: Okay. And does that number, Enrique, as we move to the next 12 months or so, does that number get better, or is that kind of a rough estimate?
spk03: It depends on every week, okay? That's why it's so important. I mean, I think, Michael, what we're trying to do is we're thinking on our customers, and we have to publish an itinerary and a schedule which is solid and it's reliable and it's not changing for the customers. That's why, on the other side, I mean, for us, it's really important to speak in terms of ASMs because we'll have aircrafts going in, aircrafts going out, Engines going up, engines going down, and it's going to be really variable. So I don't think it's important to speak about aircrafts or engines for you guys who make your prognosis based on ASMs. and for the customers who need a reliable schedule. So I think the most important way of managing this is managing through a prognosis based on ASMs. Okay.
spk08: Okay. I agree. I'm trying to get the sense on, you know, knowing that we cover the lessors, I'm trying to get a sense of how many airplanes you may have to extend the leases on. And that's actually my second question, which is in your conversations with the lessors, what sort of response are you getting on the cost of the new lease? Because what we're hearing is that with narrow bodies scarce and everybody asking for extensions at the same time and interest costs very high, that in some cases the response they're getting from the lessors is a much higher monthly rental price under the extension than what they were currently expecting. benefiting from despite the fact that the airplane is a lot older right it should be a lower lease rate not a higher lease rate so that would be my second question is just on your early um you know conversations with the lessors is it you know does it appear that these new extensions would be a bit more expensive than what you currently have thanks for thanks for taking my question
spk04: You're welcome, Michael. This is Jaime. Hi, Jaime. In terms of numbers, we will be extending 18 aircrafts that were supposed to be re-delivered in 2024 and 2025. Okay. The new rent environment has changed due to the situation. Still, rents will be lower than the new fleet that we have. Extensions will range between 24 months to 48 months. Normally, lessors prefer that the airline that is already operating the plane extends the plane rather than to give it to someone new because they don't need to accrue any expenses in fitting the airplane for the other airline. But you are right. The pricing environment has increased if you compare from early this year to today.
spk08: Great. That's super helpful.
spk01: Thanks, everyone. Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Rogerio Araujo with Bank of America. You may proceed.
spk06: Hey, gentlemen.
spk05: Thanks for the opportunity. I have a couple here. The first one on the new margin guidance provided, it simply implies a very strong EBITDA margin for fourth Q, despite the higher oil price, around 33%. 34%. Is that correct? And what is driving that? I can do the other following that answer. Thank you.
spk15: So I'll take the first part of that question. Thank you. This is Fogar. So in the fourth quarter, we are expecting a high single-digit year-on-year growth in total revenue per available seat mile. And we believe that those improvements will mostly come through better ancillary revenues following the same trend of improvements that we have observed year to date. And remind everyone that we are entering one of the best quarters of the year with the high season of December and November in there. We're also leveraging the return of Cat 1 in December. And we will grow in the US-Mexico market as we already explained. And remind everybody that the guidance that we've given already includes the affected aircraft through the Pratt & Whitney engine situation. So that capacity guidance we talked about already includes that number.
spk05: Okay, that's very clear. Thank you. My second question is regarding The financial compensation, so you guys mentioned $6 to $7 billion in financial compensation, estimated 80% coming to compensate the airlines and 3,000 engines. So can we do like a, if you do an average compensation by engine, Do we reach something that is close to a best guess, and is it going to be a similar compensation for each engine of all these 3,000, or it's going to be very different across airlines?
spk03: I think that's a question you need to do to RTX. I cannot answer for RTX and how they negotiate their compensation packages. I can tell you what we're trying to negotiate and how we are trying to negotiate it. And the problem I have is I have a limitation from the contractual perspective to mention the number. But what we're planning to do, and I think this is really important, is effective before the end of this quarter, we will release a forecast, both of ASMs that will be flying in the following quarter, and second, an amount, a total amount that will be accounted as part of the quarter compensation.
spk06: Okay. Very clear. Thank you very much. Have a great one.
spk01: Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Jeremy Mendez with JP Morgan. You may proceed.
spk12: Hello, everybody, and thanks for taking my question. I have two follow-ups, actually. The first one's on international capacity. So following Cat 1 and removing and have you been facing some kind of competition from U.S. carriers by adding more capacity to the U.S.? Because my understanding is that over the Cat 2 situation, most of the of the most profitable routes were compensated by U.S. carriers. And the second one, also related to capacity, is that by removing the capacity from Mexico City Airport, if you are adding some additional flights from AIFA, or you're just removing your overall exposure to Mexico City. Thank you.
spk15: So in terms of U.S. capacity, I can tell you that our airline focuses on a different market segment than many of the U.S. carriers. We are focused on our VFR core markets, flying from the center of Mexico to some of the Mexican heritage population markets in the U.S. that have no direct service. while many of the U.S. carriers focus on leisure destinations in Mexico. And I would also like to remind everyone that we are seeing an increasing chasm gap between us here in Mexico and our U.S. peers. So we believe we're well positioned to take advantage of additional demand in the U.S.-Mexico transporter markets. Regarding the capacity in the Mexico City metro area, we are currently operating in three airports. We are reducing capacity in Mexico City International Airport, and as Enrique mentioned, we're using that capacity to fortify our U.S.-Mexico capacity in the short term. away from Mexico City and in other markets from Mexico to the U.S. Maybe I can just add that.
spk06: Okay, super clear. Thank you. Thank you. One moment for questions.
spk01: Our next question comes from Bruno Emerim with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.
spk02: Thank you. So I have two questions. First one, It's a follow-up on the guidance for margin. As previously discussed, the guidance implies on a significant improvement in the fourth quarter. Is this guidance including any potential benefit from compensations to be received from RTX or is it net of those effects? I'm just trying to understand to what extent the margin delivered in fourth quarter could be a good proxy for the future. The second question is a clarification on the engines that have already been grounded. What type of feedback are you receiving from RTX in terms of the duration of this process? How many days will they need to go through the whole inspection process? Thank you.
spk04: Hi, this is Jaime. I will answer the first question. Yes, it has the benefit of the compensation of Pratt & Whitney, the guidance for the 4Q. You will see in two lines, as mentioned in the call, on the other operating income line and on the maintenance expenses line.
spk03: I think on the second part of your question, this is Enrique Beltranena. RTX stated yesterday in their call that they are still thinking about 250 to 300 days of duration for the total turnaround times for the engines. Okay, thank you.
spk11: I'm sorry.
spk01: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Pablo Montevies with Barclays. You may proceed.
spk14: Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I have a quick one on basically, I would like to have more color on your ability to source new aircraft in the first half of next year. How do you think that is happening and the likelihood of you having some extra aircraft Thank you.
spk04: Thank you, Pablo. First, we have our own purchase order with Airbus. We will be receiving 11 aircrafts in 2024 and 13 aircrafts in 2025. So we already have that contractual expectation to receive those aircrafts. In addition, we already secured extensions for the 2024 previously aircraft to be re-delivered. And we are looking at other aircraft. What we want to do, Pablo, is we don't want to fix a short-term problem and create a long-term problem. So we are really doing analysis aircraft by aircraft on a P&L basis before we decide to bring a few aircraft to try to mitigate the GPS impact. But we have been really thinking about long-term success and short-term profitability.
spk01: Perfect. Thank you. Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Alberto Valerio with UBS. He may proceed.
spk10: Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. So I would like to follow up on the Mexicana de Aviacion. We see tickets fare very low at this moment for some routes, even 50% discount. I know that for a while the overlap is small. They start to see very few aircraft at this moment. But do you see any potential liability on privilege for the airline and then you can call a legal dispute? Or do you think that they'll be restricted to that 10 aircraft that they have initial planned for the fleet and keep that at a small portion of the market? Thank you.
spk03: I mean, again, we need to say that Bolaris has advocated for fair competition with equal conditions for all market participants. We have demanded equal treatment from the authorities and our closely monitoring the implementation process for any new entrants. The good news is this last week the FAA authority or the aviation authority had made it really clear that they were not going to allow the new airline to have better benefits and that's the way they have stated it. It is important also to say that they started selling, but then they interrupted, and their tickets are now on sale. I didn't remind you guys. I mean, with fair competition, Volaris has always been a very good carrier competing with any other competitor since we were founded.
spk10: No doubt. Very clear. Just one more question on my side about Tulum Airport. Is there any news on the Tulum? They already started selling tickets on that airport. Will Volaris make any deal with this airport? Thank you.
spk03: As I stated in the last call, we are absolutely interested in Tulum and we may fly from Tulum. It's in its final phase of being constructed and finished. And once we have clarity on safety and the way we can fly there, then we will start acting our structure and announcing capacity. But I think for us it's really important to have absolute clarity on how we fly and how we approach, how we take off, and the way we operate there. since safety is always the first thing for us. Okay, thank you very much everyone. I think it is important for you guys also to understand We are now the only public company in this country. Okay. You know, only airline public company as a result of that we cannot publish capacity that it is not approved by the authority or that it is not legally a legally without authority to fly the routes.
spk01: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Neil Glynn with Air Control Tower. You may proceed.
spk02: Oh, good morning, everybody. If I could ask two questions. The first one is following up on some of the US commentary. I'm conscious there's a lot of capacity from each of the three Mexican airlines hitting the market over the next few months. And I'm interested in your take as to the ability of that capacity to hit the ground running, so to speak, Or how do you think about the lag to maturity of some of those routes? Then the second question, you've mentioned your first foray into the Jolicoe market. Your sister company, Wizz Air in Europe, has been using that market for quite some time. So I'm interested in terms of why now for the Jolicoe market and should Jolicoes play a bigger role for you in the future? Thank you.
spk04: I will start first with the second question. Neil, this is Jaime. Basically, in the past, we hadn't explored the Yolko Japanese market. We did a first trip during the month of May and visited the banks and some of the players. And this is the first approach. We are dealing with engines, which is a smaller risk for an exposure for the Latin area. Some of the Japanese investors were concerned about the Latin market, in particular due to Chapter 11 and breaches under the prior contracts from some Latin American airlines. So I think it's good news that we were able, in sort of short term after the visit, to be able to execute a transaction on engines. We already have the sailing list back for most of the planes of 2024 and 2025. We do have some shells at the end of 2025 that it will be interesting if we can accommodate a job con transaction. It is probably the cheapest money due to the tax benefit the Japanese, they have accelerated the position. So it's good. It was helpful for us, but they knew with some of the banks and investors. But we are really optimistic on the view that the Japanese inverter had on the story of Volaris and where we are heading. On the first question, the line was cut, so we couldn't hear it.
spk02: If you can repeat it, please. Sure. It was really a question about how long it takes some of this new capacity into the U.S. to perform as your existing U.S. network, given that clearly there's disparate routes being introduced, but there are three Mexican airlines introducing a lot of new capacity at around the same time.
spk15: So regarding the US capacity, I can tell you that international new routes typically have a longer ramp-up time than domestic routes. However, we are not introducing any new routes. We are adding capacity to existing markets that we already operate and that require more capacity because we're seeing extremely high loads in those markets. So the ramp-up time of those increased frequencies is significantly lower and we are going to be focusing on our mexican heritage core market which is very different to the u.s carriers as i as i already mentioned many times thank you excuse me this concludes today's question and answer session i would like to invite mr belchaneno to proceed with his closing remarks please go ahead sir
spk03: Thank you very much. So before I end the call, I want to especially thank our ambassadors who have been working hard, again, to optimize our operations in light of these engine inspections and changing schedules and changing reservations and accommodating to the new environment. As always, I want to thank our board of directors, investors, bankers, lessors, and suppliers for their unwavering commitment and support. But let me tell you something. I remain really positive of the way we can manage this situation, and I look forward to addressing you all again in the next future. Thank you very much. Thank you, operator. Thank you, everybody.
spk01: Thank you. This concludes the Valerius Conference call for today. Thank you very much for your participation, and have a nice day.
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