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spk08: Good morning. Welcome to Voya Financial's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star two. Participants are limited to one question and one follow-up. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mike Katz, Executive Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead, sir.
spk16: Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Voya Financial's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. We appreciate all of you who have joined us this morning. As a reminder, materials for today's call are available on our website at investors.voya.com. Turning to slide two. Some of the comments made during the call may contain forward-looking statements or refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures within the meaning of federal securities law. GAAP reconciliations are available in our press release and financial supplement found on our website. Now, joining me on the call are Heather LaValley, our Chief Executive Officer, and Don Templin, our Chief Financial Officer. After their prepared remarks, we will take your questions. For the Q&A session, we have also invited the heads of our businesses, specifically Christine Hertzellers, Investment Management, Rob Grupka, Workplace Solutions. With that, let's turn to slide three, as I would like to turn the call over to Heather.
spk05: Thanks, Mike. Let's begin on slide four with some key themes. Our results reflect the underlying strength of our businesses, the benefits of our diversified revenues, and our strong track record of executing on our targets while continuing to invest for future growth. In the third quarter, we generated $1.74 per share of adjusted operating earnings, including notable items. We remain on track to achieve our EPS target of 12% to 17% for the three-year period ending in 2024. We've taken the steps necessary to protect margins and will continue to be disciplined on spend as a key lever to manage our businesses. As we look ahead, robust pipelines across all three businesses will power our growth into 2024 and beyond. Our commercial momentum continued to build in the third quarter in wealth solutions. full-service recurring deposits grew 10% with positive net flows in both full-service and recordkeeping. In health solutions, annualized in-force premiums and fees were up 21% with growth across all product lines. And while investment management flows continue to reflect a difficult market for asset management, as well as the ongoing transition of our international distribution channels, the underlying business is strong. Importantly, we head into the fourth quarter with most transition-related outflows now behind us and the expectation of even greater benefits from our new international distribution relationship with Allianz GI. The benefits of that relationship continue to emerge with international retail contributing more than $1 billion of positive net flows in the quarter. As we look ahead to 2024, we're seeing a strong pipeline of growth across all of our businesses. A few examples. In wealth, we already have $12 billion of plans and implementation for 2024. In health, our outlook includes premium growth at the high end of our 7% to 10% target range with a strong sales pipeline for 2024. This includes known sales in life and disability up more than 40% and voluntary sales up almost 50% year over year. In investment management, with the transition headwinds we experienced in 2023 now largely behind us, we are confident that our strong pipeline will support our return to at least 2% organic growth. That pipeline includes unfunded private credit commitments in the institutional channel, robust projected flows in secondary private equity, and continued growth opportunities in international markets. With its preeminence in fixed income and strong investment performance, Avoya Investment Management is well positioned to benefit as cash that is currently on the sideline moves back into longer duration assets. The combination of our strong pipelines and robust expense discipline will allow us to protect margins and deliver on our financial goals. Turning to capital management, we maintained a strong excess capital position at quarter end of approximately $400 million. We deployed nearly $300 million of capital in the third quarter across debt extinguishment, share buybacks, dividends, and the completion of the transaction to take full ownership of Voya India. More on that in a moment. We generated an additional $200 million of excess capital this quarter, contributing to over $800 million over the past 12 months, exceeding our 90% free cash flow conversion target. Don will share more on our results and performance shortly. Turning to slide five, after the strategic acquisitions we've made over the past year, we continue to keep our focus squarely on successful business integration. These acquisitions have diversified our revenues, helped us establish a strategic foothold in new markets, and positioned us to capitalize on strong growth opportunities. Our acquisition of the U.S. business of Allianz GI has reshaped Zoya Investment Management, providing access to high-growth international markets and revitalizing our retail capabilities. With its international focus and retail-oriented business, Allianz GI has diversified our revenue and earnings at a time when institutional demand for fixed income continues to adjust to last year's market dislocations. Our international distribution partnership will continue to drive growth in investment management. BenefitFocus provides Voya with new capabilities in benefits administration, access to new employer markets, and a platform to advance our strategic vision for workplace benefits and savings. With open enrollment season currently underway, we're focused on delivering outstanding service to our customers, which we see as a key driver of growth that will help us both retain and expand our customer base. And even beyond our current base of benefit-focused clients, the acquisition is bringing Voya's workplace benefits and savings strategy into sharper focus for customers. It helps define our presence in the market with a message that is resonating with customers and supporting our strong sales pipeline. In the third quarter, we took full ownership of our global technology and operations subsidiary, which we have rebranded as Voya India. By deploying capital in this manner, we've gained a significant strategic flexibility that will allow us to maximize the value of the Voya India organization which we built from scratch in only four years and today encompasses almost 2,000 Voya employees. Through Voya India, we are further building our capabilities in technology and customer experience and enhancing the value of our workplace and investment management businesses. We are bringing innovative solutions to our customers while also driving technology that is leading to greater automation, faster speed to market, improved performance, and a more efficient cost structure. Turning to slide six, Voya's purpose and vision continue to drive positive outcomes for our clients, our colleagues, and the communities in which we live and work. To support employer and employee needs and recognizing the increasing importance of mental health to our customers, we recently introduced new mental health offerings to our critical illness and accident insurance products. To support our communities, we once again held our annual employee giving campaign in September. The campaign was a resounding success with approximately 75% of Voya colleagues participating in programs that collectively supported more than 1,900 charitable causes. With that, Don will now provide more details on our performance and results. Don?
spk03: Thank you, Heather. Now let's turn to our results on slide eight. we delivered $1.74 of adjusted operating EPS in the third quarter. This includes 21 cents of alternative and prepayment income below our long-term expectations and 12 cents of other unfavorable impacts within health solutions. Beginning next quarter, we expect to pre-release our alternative and prepayment income experience to better inform consensus estimates. Excluding notable impacts, Third quarter 2023 adjusted operating EPS was $2.07 compared to $2.24 in the prior year quarter. Favorable loss ratios and health solutions moderated somewhat from exceptional levels in the prior year. Current year results also reflect growth in fee-based revenues in wealth and investment management. This was further supported by disciplined spend and prudent capital management. Third quarter GAAP net income was $248 million, reflecting the favorable impact of certain non-cash items. Free cash flow generation was over $200 million in the quarter, demonstrating another quarter above our 90% target. Turning to wealth solutions, we continue to make progress on our workplace benefits and savings strategy, which differentiates us in the marketplace and builds on our leading retirement franchise. We ended the quarter with $174 billion of full-service AUM and $510 billion of total client assets. Our total client assets have increased meaningfully over the last 12 months, This includes a combined $3 billion in record keeping and full service net flows in the third quarter and $7.5 billion over the last 12 months. Our relentless focus on maximizing customer outcomes in the workplace has helped us win new business and retain key clients in both the corporate and tax exempt markets. This focus on our customers has supported growth in full service recurring deposits which exceeded $14 billion over the last 12 months. Turning to slide 10, we continue to drive profitable growth and maintain healthy operating margins. Wealth Solutions generated $179 million of adjusted operating earnings in the quarter and $630 million over the last 12 months. Net revenues were higher year over year, and continue to reflect the benefit of our diverse revenue streams. In the quarter, we continue to see elevated fixed surrenders and lower transfers from variable investments to fixed accounts from our participants. While we expect fourth quarter spread income to be consistent with the third quarter, participant behavior is uncertain due to the macro environment, which will drive trends heading into 2024. we continue to maintain margins within our target range of 36 to 40%. Administrative expenses were $12 million lower than the second quarter. We expect fourth quarter expenses to increase back to second quarter levels, given the impact of seasonal spending. Heading into 2024, we have taken additional actions to ensure expenses support our target operating margins. While we expect full service net outflows of $2 to $3 billion next quarter, this is mostly driven by one large case departure. We have a robust pipeline, which includes $12 billion of plans and implementation for 2024. This is nearly 15% higher compared to the same time last year. Turning to health solutions, our excellent year-to-date results reflect our significant growth and favorable underwriting experience in the year. Annualized in-force premium and fee growth was approximately 15%, excluding benefit focus. This was substantially better than our 7% to 10% growth target and was driven by strong sales and favorable retention across all product lines. Our total aggregate loss ratio was 66% on a trailing 12-month basis. While some of the second quarter favorability and stop loss reversed this quarter, results remain favorable. We expect stop loss ratios will trend towards our long-term target range of 77% to 80% in 2024. We are lowering our long-term total aggregate loss ratio target to 69% to 72%, down from 70% to 73%. This is driven by strong underwriting and substantial growth in our voluntary block. Turning to slide 12. Our significant growth and favorable underwriting experience over the last year resulted in approximately $350 million of adjusted operating earnings over the trailing 12-month period. Adjusted operating earnings in the quarter were $53 million. Results in the quarter include one-time unfavorable impacts from our annual assumption review and a non-recurring legal reserve. Excluding these impacts, adjusted operating earnings were $71 million. Third quarter revenues grew 36% year-over-year, reflecting strong in-force premium growth and the addition of benefit-focused revenues. Adjusted operating margins were 32.2%, illustrating prudent expense management while investing for growth. Looking ahead, We expect administrative expenses to increase by $10 to $15 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting seasonality and our first open enrollment season with benefit focus. We have had a strong start to the 2024 renewal of sales season and remain confident in growing our book and bringing solutions to our customers that improve financial outcomes in the workplace. Turning to slide 13. Investment management has a multi-decade track record of generating significant value for our clients across different market cycles. As Heather mentioned earlier, our flows this year have been affected by challenging market dynamics and strategic decisions made to modernize and streamline our platform. Specifically, the transition away from our former international distribution partnership to Allianz GI contributed $3.3 billion of the overall $4.3 billion of net outflows in the third quarter. With this transition now largely behind us, we can build on the momentum with our Allianz GI partnership, which has added $3 billion of net flows since inception. Additionally, a majority of the general account assets have now transitioned back to venerable. The remaining general account and variable portfolio assets will transfer over time and is included in our margin and revenue guidance. Looking forward, we have a strong unfunded pipeline of over $10 billion from a diverse source of strategies and expect to return to our organic growth target of over 2% next year. Turning to slide 14. Investment management delivered adjusted operating earnings of $49 million in the third quarter, net of Allianz GI's non-controlling interest, and $174 million on a trailing 12-month basis. Net revenues grew 21.8%, excluding notables, on a trailing 12-month basis as we added AUM and revenues from Allianz GI. Third quarter adjusted operating margin excluding notables was 25.5% on a trailing 12 month basis. We continue to manage spend to position us for further margin expansion heading into 2024. Looking ahead, we are well positioned to benefit from a rotation back into higher yielding fixed income strategies. Further, Our diversified and differentiated product pipeline and international distribution position us well for future growth. Turning to slide 15, we ended the quarter with excess capital of approximately $400 million. We generated $200 million of capital in the third quarter and $800 million over the last 12 months, consistent with our 90% free cash flow conversion target. In the third quarter, we deployed approximately $300 million of capital. This included nearly $100 million of share repurchases and dividends. With the recent debt maturity behind us, our leverage ratio is now in the middle of our long-term range. Given this, near-term capital deployment will be focused on share repurchases and dividends. Our baseline expectations are to return approximately $200 million in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead, we will continue to prudently manage our balance sheet and deploy capital as we generate it. Turning to slide 16, we remain on track to achieve our targeted EPS CAGR target of 12% to 17% for the three-year period that will end in 2024. We have taken additional expense action to ensure we protect margins and achieve our financial targets. We continue to generate commercial momentum. Our strong pipelines across all three segments support our outlook for growth. And we will remain prudent with our capital.
spk08: We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star 2. As a reminder, participants are limited to one question and one follow-up. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question goes to Elise Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
spk07: Alisa, are you there? Sorry, I was on mute. My first question is on investment management. I was just hoping to get some additional color. I know you guys spoke about the pipeline that you have in that business around $10 billion. If you could compare that to historical levels. And then second of all, how much more on outflows are you expecting from the NNIP relationship? And should that all come through your results in the fourth quarter mostly? Thanks, Elise.
spk06: Christine, we'll jump in and talk about our optimism on the pipeline. Yeah, absolutely. Thank you, Elise. And so let me actually start with the second question, and then I'll pivot to the pipeline itself. So NNIP, yes, we are expecting outflows in the fourth quarter of half a billion to a billion dollars, and that will largely really put NNIP behind us. So think of that as a 2023 event for VIM. Now, moving then to the pipeline, as we shared, over $10 billion. Let me contextualize that for you as far as history. So compared to a year ago, we're over 3x the size of the pipeline entering 2024 versus 2023. And so really seeing a real pickup in momentum here. And one of the things, too, Elise, that we've done for consistency is we're keeping that discussion and that view more on what the traditional pipeline view of VIM is. And what I mean by that is that's U.S. distribution. And what that doesn't include is Allianz. And so, again, and so obviously the opportunity when you think about their distribution reach, the global demand for fixed income that we see notably out of Asia, we've got a lot of opportunities there. So, again, wanted to keep it consistent. What is that $10 billion? unfunded wins and very high probability institutional wins where we are a finalist. So, again, the opportunity pipeline is growing every day. It's bigger. We have a lot of excitement and confidence to move into 24 and remain confident about our 2-plus organic growth next year.
spk07: Thanks. And then my second question, you guys gave a target for capital return of $200 million for the fourth quarter. And you also mentioned, right, you're within your target debt leverage. So should we expect capital return to improve from that 200 million level in 24, you know, as we think about your earnings growing from here?
spk03: Yeah, yeah, at least this is Don. This 2023 was an interesting year because we had a debt retirement that came up in the third quarter. So we had to deal with that. We've historically been maybe a little bit more balanced around share repurchase and debt retirement quarter to quarter. This year was a little bit different. $162 million of share repurchase in the first quarter. We had some debt retirement in the second quarter that limited a little bit the amount of share repurchase. And now we're guiding around the $200 million of share repurchase and dividends in the fourth quarter. We are comfortably in our leverage metric range right now. So you should expect, obviously, fourth quarter what we've guided to. But you should expect that in 2024, our bias, given where we are in our leverage metric right now, our bias will be to share repurchase and return of capital to shareholders.
spk05: And maybe simply put, Elise, as you think about going into 2024, our focus is on integrations of the strategic acquisitions, driving organic growth, and as Don mentioned, the focus in on returning capital to shareholders in the form of share buybacks and dividends.
spk07: Thank you.
spk08: Our next question comes from Ryan Kruger with KBW. Please proceed with your question.
spk09: Hey, good morning. My first question was just on the 12% to 17% EPS CAGR through 2024. I think in last fall, you had talked about expecting to be at the higher end of that range, and I'm curious, is that still your expectation at this point?
spk03: Yeah, thanks, Ryan. So we are confident in being in that 12% to 17% three-year EPS growth guidance. The incremental macro headwinds since the second quarter and the moderating of the stop-loss favorability that occurred makes it, I think, a little bit more difficult to get to the top end of that range. To get us to the top end of that range, we'd likely need some combination of a reversal of the recent equity market declines, a more normal yield curve that's not inverted, and loss ratios at the bottom end of our revised targets. But having said that, our confidence around being in that 12% to 17% range is driven by really a couple things. One, the commercial momentum that we're experiencing in all three business segments, as Heather alluded to, the disciplined underwriting that we're experiencing in health and the really strong year-to-date results that we've had there, and then our continued focus on expense management.
spk09: Got it. Thank you. And my second question was on investment management. Just on the fee rate, went up a fair amount this quarter. I think there might be some impacts from NNIT and revenue guarantees and whatnot. Can you give any more color on just how to think about the fee rate as we move into 2024 there?
spk06: Sure, Ryan. This is Christine. So when you think about the basis points or the fees, you're absolutely right. It has been going up. And really, I want you to think about it as far as outflows have been Lower basis point, a little bit lower margin business. And then behind the scenes, you know, some of the things that we're winning in, like international retail as well as private debt, those tend to have higher basis points under management. So think about that as the story. How to think about going forward? I mean, certainly given our strategy around growing and leveraging international retail, private and alternatives growth. You know, we would over time expect to continue to see progress there. But I want to note, we don't really manage the business to that metric. What we think about really is operating margin and growth. And I just want to let you know that, you know, we may see some quote-unquote pressure to that number next year for great reasons. And why I'm saying that is, you know, we are seeing real interest, particularly out of Asia, when you think about fixed income and And I think that I want to say the first time in my career, but a long time, China's short rates are actually lower than U.S. And so I think that the demand for high-quality fixed income, not only are we seeing it in the U.S., but we're also seeing it in the world. And so sometimes, you know, these sovereign wealth funds is an example. They bring a lot of assets at aggressive fees. But we're super excited. It's margin accretive. And, again, what we're managing to is organic growth, and we see great opportunities in 2024.
spk09: Great, thank you.
spk08: Our next question comes from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
spk11: Hi, good morning. First one I had for you is just on the health, uh, the benefit focus, uh, business and common set. I'm pretty optimistic around, uh, the year end and was just interested if you could apply more on, you know, how, how the cross-selling is going. I mean, are you expecting that this could potentially get a bigger bump in growth this year because of some of the cross-selling efforts, uh, and, and your, you know, across your, your different clients and, you know, is that something that we should be thinking about headed into next quarter?
spk02: Hey, Alex, this is Rob. I'll start, and I guess Heather may want to chime in on the back end of this one. Look, we're really excited about the conversations that are going on, but I want to be clear that this is a business where sort of the cycle of sales is and we talked about this at acquisition is just longer right so it's a technology driven sale those are big decisions generally you're unseating some prior technology provider and so it tends to be more of a 12 to 15 month sort of sales cycle so i wouldn't think about things from uh you know sort of hey we're going through annual enrollment now as we talked about and then you're going to see some you know sort of major change in what you've seen quarter to quarter It's really about, as we think about it, how are we building momentum into 2015? And that may sound like a long time away, but, again, when you factor in that 25, I should say, you should factor in just that sales cycle that's going on there. And so the conversations that we're having are different. Importantly, they all sort of lead into this confidence around bringing together benefits and savings and Simplifying an environment for HR teams that is incredibly complex. Thinking about leveraging, you know, again, a technology decision with product decisions over time. Again, those things may not all happen at once, but the build over a long period of time is what we get really excited about and we have optimism around. We just had, you know, people in front of our board from our sales distribution team sharing live examples of, you know, the conversations and how they're different today than they would have been 12 months ago. So that leaves us, you know, in a really strong position from strategic alignment with where we're going, and I'll let Heather chime in.
spk05: Yeah, thanks, Rob. And I'll really, you know, emphasize a few key points. You think about it's been a year since we announced the acquisition. And this has been a highly strategic acquisition for us to be able to bring on top benefits administration platforms. That's point one. Secondly, you think about the benefits of Voya as the owner of this entity. We have been able to accelerate bringing new capabilities to market for benefit focus. We did so on time to be able to hit the sales cycle. Third point is we've stabilized the service heading into open enrollment. And fourth, as Rob mentioned, we've got a strong pipeline with intermediaries, which is where we see the biggest growth. So we could not be more excited about what benefit focus will bring for us. As Rob mentioned, really thinking about it in terms of 25 and beyond, but we are super excited about this strategic acquisition.
spk11: Got it. The second question I had is on the Department of Labor fiduciary rule. I know it's early, but just any thoughts on how it could impact your business? And I guess I'm particularly interested in if you have any views on if it would have any impact on sort of proprietary funds in the wealth solutions business or if any impact around like IRA rollovers, that kind of thing. Thanks.
spk05: Yeah, Alex, I'll take it. And just to say, it's super early. With it just coming out, our teams are certainly paying attention to it. You know, we continue to focus in on delivering for our participants and doing right in the best interest. So, again, early days, and stay tuned. More to come once we get our arms around it.
spk11: Okay, thank you.
spk08: Our next question comes from Sunit Kamath with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
spk10: Thanks. Good morning. A couple on Wealth Solutions. I think you talked about a $12 billion pipeline. Should we think about that as essentially in flight in terms of onboarding, or is there still some, you know, Is there still a risk that you don't get that, like you're in final negotiations or final contests with other players? When we talk about these pipelines, I just want to understand how we're sort of defining them, like how confident can we be in closing on the pipelines?
spk02: Yeah, sure. Sunit, this is Rob again. So this we feel very confident in. We've got people, you know, sweating over implementation as we speak. So these will obviously come in over the full year period. But the way to think about them is clients in implementation. And so the level of uncertainty is, you know, very unlikely that those things change. You know, we feel really confident in what we're doing there and what we're seeing. And I would just add that You know, look, this is a broad-based conversation, not just all from one segment of our business. So whether you think about tax codes, you think about sizes, this represents, you know, a 15% jump over prior year. And we really like the, you know, and it's consistent with our book of business, but the mix of the business and the strength it implies about the pipeline, broadly speaking.
spk10: Got it. Okay. And then I guess for Don, as we think about capital deployment going forward, maybe a follow-up to Elise's question, should we think about the capital deployment really being a function of the free cash flow you generate, or would you be contemplating drawing down some of that $400 million of excess capital that you have at the end of the quarter?
spk03: Yeah, Cindy, great question there. So we've been particularly, I think, thoughtful and prudent this year given some of the uncertainty around the macro environment. So we've been very intentional about basically deploying in the current quarter the capital that we generated in the prior quarter. I would expect that that will continue for some period of time till we get a little bit more clarity on the macro. But we define that as excess, and it's called excess for a reason. And our goal over the long term will be to return excess to our shareholders. So there's going to be some period of time where we're probably having a bit of excess. So we're right now in the $400 million-ish range. But you should expect that as things crystallize a little bit more, some of the uncertainty goes away, that that excess will be trended down.
spk05: And my only build on Don's point is the fact that we've got a long-term track record of returning capital to shareholders. And you think about what we've done in the last year alone. We talked about resuming share repurchases in the second quarter. We did that. We talked about increasing the dividend. We doubled the dividend. We brought down our leverage ratio. So you can certainly expect us to have that focus continue on returning capital to shareholders into 24 and our confidence in that 90-plus percent free cash flow.
spk10: Got it. That's helpful. Thanks.
spk08: Our next question comes from John Barnage with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.
spk14: Good morning. Thanks for the opportunity. You've talked about Voya India and talked about expense and admin, admin expense specifically discipline. Maybe as we think about the fee-based business and investment management and wealth solutions, can you talk about leveraging Voya India within that in human capital and Is there some dynamic you can talk about, like hiring X percent for new positions in that business, or some framing would be helpful for that look there? Thank you.
spk05: Yeah, John, I'll take the question. Thank you. So, you know, first, as we think about expense discipline, we've talked about this is not a new muscle. This is something that we have done for a decade. And you think about what we talked about earlier this year, very proud of our teams that we brought down expenses sequentially, particularly within asset management and within the wealth businesses. And, you know, much of those are really reflecting some opportunities we had within integrations, within AGI and Benefit by Focus. As we think about our expense actions we can take going forward, our focus is really around maintaining our operating margins within wealth and health. and that 1% margin improvement in investment management that Christine mentioned. So maybe, John, to dimensionalize it for you a little bit, think about the opportunities we have within Voya India, specifically within investment management, as well as benefit focus, and then across the organization that has been a tremendous asset for us. Also think about a year ago, we purposely brought together our workplace teams and benefit focus, and so we continue to see some opportunities there to continue to optimize that organization to best serve our clients, as well as just, you know, levers we have around discretionary spend. And then finally, we see continued opportunities that will emerge in savings in automation, in AI, and in continuing to simplify our IT footprint. So hopefully that gives you some color.
spk14: That is very helpful. Thank you very much. And then a follow-up question around the new disclosure around alternative or variable investment income performance. Can you provide a look forward, given the one-quarter lag there, and maybe talk about performance specifically in this third quarter? Thank you.
spk03: I'm sorry, John. Repeat that question. This is on the alternatives?
spk14: Yeah, so on alternatives, it sounds like you're going to pre-release it going forward. Can you talk about your performance in the third quarter specifically? It changed from the second quarter, and within that, given it's a one-quarter lag asset, is there a look forward you can provide at all into the fourth? Thank you.
spk03: No, I think really what we're planning to do, you know, we give the information around, you know, the alts performance below our long-term expectations, right? So that's, you know, a 9% general expectation around that. We call that out as a notable item. And what we'd like to do is, you know, a few days after the end of the quarter, right, we will actually, as part of our 8K process when we publish some other information, we will provide what we achieved in the current quarter so that you all can build that into sort of your consensus number or your expectations around our performance. So what's happening now is you take a view around that. We publish as part of our earnings, and there's a 30-day period there that we may be misaligned on prepayment or the alternative below or above expectations. So our goal here really is to give you that information early so that you can work it into your overall estimate.
spk14: Thank you very much.
spk08: Our next question comes from Wilma Burtis with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
spk04: Hey, good morning. Could you guys provide a A few additional details on the legal reserve in this quarter?
spk02: Yeah, this is Rob. It sits within the health business. We won't get into details. It's not at that stage of things, but we've done enough to size it and adjusted it in the results this quarter.
spk05: And the only thing I'd add, Wilma, is that we do consider it a non-repeatable item.
spk04: Okay, thank you. And could you give a little bit more color on the improved outlook for the health benefit ratio and what's driving that?
spk02: Yeah, so as you look at our business mix, the primary driver of bringing it down a percent, so 69 to 72 versus what was 70 to 73, is really the mix of business. So as we've successfully grown for a number of years now at a really fast rate, our voluntary business, it's really a reflection of that shift. And obviously, this is a range we'll continue to look at over time as the mix shifts around further. And, you know, what we're trying to do is grow, grow responsibly, do it in a way, and I think you're seeing that show up that is, you know, going to lead to good bottom line.
spk05: And if I can just add, you know, we're incredibly proud of the results that Rob and team have delivered in health this year. If you just think about annualized in-force premium growth 15% well above our 7% to 10% target, the 36% growth in revenues, and then to still on top of that deliver a loss ratio that's below our target. We'll take that all day long, and as Don mentioned, as we mentioned in our comments, we're excited about the pipeline that the team has in front of us.
spk04: Thank you.
spk08: Our next question comes from Tom Gallagher with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
spk13: Good morning. Follow-up for Christine on IM. The $10 billion pipeline was related to the U.S. You said, can you talk a little bit about what you're thinking about Europe ex-NNIP? How has it been performing excluding NNIP? And based on what you're seeing lining up there, would you also expect that to be an inflow contributor for 2024?
spk06: Yes, thanks, Tom. So as far as what we're seeing, And the international flows from Allianz and the deal, they've delivered 6.5 billion. And that's predominantly our income and growth franchise as well as some of our thematic equity. So, you know, pointing out that income and growth, that's a $70 billion platform. It has brand recognition and scale and credibility in Asia where a lot of the flows are coming as well as Europe. So pivoting to the path forward, you know, we have launched some funds specifically for You know, the source of the outflows, the largest outflows with NNIP was investment-grade credit, and we launched that usage with Allianz. So, as you know, we're having conversations. Some really important things are happening with that fund. Listen, it's performance. It's a top decile performer for five years, so very competitive. We're also, you know, early in this year, it'll be something called Title VIII for ESG. So we're upgrading that. And as you know, in Europe, that designation for ESG is very important in order to compete. So again, and finally, you know, last quarter, we were able to port our long-term track record over to the new fund. So there are a lot of things, lots of great conversations happening. That's just one fund. And then broadly, I would say, you know, we're definitely seeing opportunities for not only in credit but in a number of strategies, securitized is another example, in institutional mandates through Allianz. And not to go on and on, but I just want to make one final point here around this, what I'm really excited about. You know, this is a transitional year, and when you think about our partnership with NNIT, they only represented three products of ours globally, two credit and our mortgage hedge fund. Allianz, it's a fulsome, big funnel distribution relationship. They own a little over 24% of them. They are leaning in. I mean, they are a long-run strategic partner, and so I'm really excited about the opportunities with them as we move into 2024 and beyond.
spk05: And maybe just a quick build as a reminder of the 24% ownership stake. We have spent an immense amount of time together between teams, and are incredibly aligned in terms of the growth of this business, and that's including even at the top of the house. I spent time with Oliver over in Germany. The teams are constantly back and forth, and we just couldn't be more excited about what this joint franchise can deliver going forward.
spk13: I appreciate the color on all of that. I just want to shift gears to medical stop loss, the volatility there. Can you – peel back the onion a little bit was it several large claims was it more concentrated maybe the cause of claims any sign of that continuing um you know obviously your guide is improved longer term but just want to understand near term what's going on with that business
spk02: Yeah, sure. Tom, this is Rob again. Look, the way to think about stop loss, and I know it's a little bit hard and maybe lost on us the last few years have been extremely good results. Look, it's a volatile business. It's a tail-based sort of risk business, and I know you understand that. So it's a big part of why we focus in on the trailing 12-month view. And so I just redirect you and make sure that we understand we've had tremendously strong results. We've got a 72% loss ratio in that business over the trailing 12 months. If you go back another year, it's 77%, which is at the very bottom edge of our 77 to 80% view. You know, as we said, 77 to 80 is how we feel about that business looking forward. which is really important. It's based on exactly what you're talking about. Like, well, what are you seeing in claims? And how does this compare to what you would have assumed you were going to be seeing in claims? So all those things are getting triangulated around to tell us at this point in time, 77 to 80 is how we feel about that business moving forward. And, again, reminder, we underwrite this business on an annual basis. We've got a really strong track record of running this in a disciplined way at the same time that we're growing the business, and we'll keep both hands on the wheel and continue to do that as best we can.
spk05: And I would just add that between Rob and I, we have a collective 12 years of running this business successfully with the team and feel very confident to continue to do that going forward.
spk13: Thanks. And just one more, if I could sneak it in. Is there more of a recency bias if I think about the way pricing and renewals are going to work heading into year end on the stop loss business? Just given that, you know, Grant, I completely agree that trailing results have been great. This quarter was more elevated. Would you take a little bit of a recency bias in terms of the way that gets repriced? Or what would you expect from a pricing dynamic?
spk02: Yeah, so, you know, great question. So as we think about, you know, what we turn underwriters loose to do is assess the risk and put fresh eyes on each case every year. And so whether it's new business coming in the door or it's existing business, you know, we've got good line of sight and the drivers of claims activity and experience Sometimes that's over shorter periods of time, but when we think about the manual and what we sort of calibrate to, Those are at least a three-year view of what's been going on in market. What have we experienced? What are we seeing as the drivers of claims and therefore ultimately loss ratios? So, you know, look as best we can. We don't sort of get fallen in love with the last 12 months. But at the same point, it's a piece of how we assess things and what we look at. But there's a balance, as you would expect, between sort of near-term results but a long-term view as best we can. Okay, thanks.
spk08: Our next question comes from Kenneth Lee with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
spk00: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just one follow-up on the $10 billion investment management pipeline there. What's been the historical significance experience in terms of timeframes for funding those kind of mandates? And would you expect a similar timeframe for funding the mandates over the near term? Thanks.
spk06: Yeah, sure, Ken. This is Christine. You know, the pipeline that we see or sharing with you, we have, you know, great confidence those will fund in the calendar year. Now, obviously, there, you know, there's some things that we don't include in there. What we would call, you know, from our insurance clients, committed but unfunded wins. A portion is in there, but, you know, why aren't we including all of it? Well, you know, insurance companies specifically have been a little slower to deploy capital, you know, this year, given the macro environment and everything. And so, you know, how to think about that is what we're putting in the pipeline is stuff that we see as a calendar year. Again, the opportunity, you know, holistically, when you think about beyond That number, you know, we see it as big for all the reasons we talked about. So, again, you know, we feel very confident about delivering that. And also I would say just a couple more positives real quick. You know, we're seeing, you know, we flipped positive in U.S. retail flows. We're seeing redemption rates go down markably, you know, which we kind of faced really in the beginning of this year. It was a tough market, I think, for all my competitors as well. And we're actually seeing real green shoots in terms of retail interest starting to move into our high-performing fixed income strategy. So I think they're, you know, I'm feeling really excited. There are a lot of things, a lot of energy, a lot of good things. Just want to get 2023 the transitional year over and stay focused on growing this business.
spk00: Gotcha. Very helpful there. And just one quick follow-up to your color you put in terms of the net inflows there. The retail net inflows in the quarter, fair to say that it was largely driven by fixed income or just want to get a better sense of the complexion around the net flows there that you saw? Thanks.
spk06: Yeah, the flows in retail continue to be dominated from offshore money, you know, predominantly into income and growth. And, again, some of our global tech, with tech performing well, we're getting flows there too. But inside of that, actually, we're starting to see positive inflows within sort of the traditional U.S. market, which I think we really stand out. And this is the beauty of, you know, our JV is – Asia didn't go through the sort of bump and problems that the domestic market did. And so you really saw the power of us having not only our U.S. business that was more challenged in retail, but the power of really Asia dominating our flow. So overall, I'm just excited because we see Asia is continuing and growing. Europe is improving in retail, and also we're really starting to see green shoots and stability in the U.S.
spk01: Gotcha. Very helpful. Thanks again.
spk08: Our next question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
spk15: Yes. Well, I don't mean to belabor the point, but a little more on medical stop loss. A lot of healthcare providers are seeing medical cost inflation. I realized we should look at a trailing 12 month basis and it's very good, but can you give us any confidence that what we're seeing in the third quarter isn't a result of the medical cost inflation we're seeing overall and if it is in that summit, to what extent do we need to wait 12 months for repricing of the business to occur to capture that?
spk02: Yeah, Josh, look, there's obviously a lot of dynamics around the inflation question. What I would say we've seen, it's really more the traditional, you know, what does the incidence look like? And then obviously, to your point, there can be noise in the actual claim cost piece of it, but we're not seeing that as an unusual driver in our data. Now, could it change and evolve as we move forward? You know, absolutely it could. What I would say, though, this is a business predicated on a long history of inflation, right? So this has been a product set that, you know, you think about core inflation of medical costs, sort of first dollar of six, seven percent is not an unusual range, right? So at a minimum, those sorts of things are always factored in, how we think about the claims, costs moving forward. You know, could the experience be driven a little bit better because, well, okay, there's a blip waiting to come? Again, maybe, but the core fundamentals of the product, the long-term health of the product We think, you know, the data is going to be there to support what we assess the risk at and what we need to price at. And then the market long term will absolutely be rational on this particular issue. But we're not seeing it today in the data that we've got. But again, you know, this is why we keep both hands on the wheel and pay close attention to the actual experience that we're seeing and how we think about pricing moving forward.
spk05: And the build I've mentioned, Josh, is that as you think about the cost of higher medical costs on consumers and on our participants, it's why we've got a strong demand for our supplemental health products as well as our HSA. These products are so important now to be able to help protect in time of need, and so we're certainly seeing that demand and see that show up in our 2024 sales.
spk15: And only because it's the most popular topic in markets today what should we think about the impact of GLP-1 drugs on the medical stop-loss industry? Is it one that should reduce the cost of extreme healthcare intervention for employees in the future? Is it a non-event? How are you guys thinking about it?
spk02: Yeah, look, it's a technical issue, so we'll acknowledge that up front. Look, these are going to be high-cost drugs. drug delivery when you get into the whole genetic side of what's going on. And this is an area where the team actually for the last couple of years has been, you know, trying to, you know, as best as able without much experience, like what do we think usage is going to look like? And how do we think about usage, not just within a particular plan or a client, but how do we think about it across our book of business? And so there's a lot of benefit to, you know, you know, what we've done the last few years and growing scale in this space. I think, you know, the story will be written into the future for sure, but it's a topic that the team from an underwriting and pricing perspective is anticipating and making as smart a decisions as we possibly can. getting outside perspective that feeds into how we think about layering in this pricing to the underwriting manual and those sorts of things. So I think we're doing our best and we're paying attention to it. To your point, it's a hot topic in this space just because of the size of the cost that comes with it. But, again, this is something we're paying close attention to and, again, both hands on the wheel.
spk04: Thank you.
spk08: Our next question comes from Joel Hertz with Delling and Partners. Please proceed with your question.
spk12: Hey, good morning. Just to follow up on the 12 billion wealth pipeline, how much of that is full service versus record keeping and sort of how did the pipeline in both of those businesses compare year over year?
spk02: Yeah, look, I would just think about it as consistent with our book. The thing I keep coming back to with this is it's a powerful data point for sure. We're not done writing new business. We're not going to sit around and wait for this thing to refill. You always just keep filling the front of the funnel. And, you know, we're not talking about things we know about for 25 and 26, but we've got a lot of optimism is what we're seeing from, you know, in those cases, more from a record-keeping perspective. But the $12 billion that we're talking about, again, year over year, it's up 15%. We feel great about that. In this sort of environment we've gone through, we were seeing a little bit slower to develop numbers. in the tax exempt side of the marketplace. We're seeing, you know, some of the negative effects of that this year, but as we look forward, we're starting to see a much better trajectory on activity. I would tell you in the middle part of the market, you know, really strong performance year over year is emerging there, building confidence. And importantly, enabling us to connect across health business, wealth business, and benefit focus, where both health and benefit focus have been much more home base has been middle market. And we're really excited about that, again, being a leverage point for talking about how we drive benefits and savings strategically and drive and learning for the organization as we continue to get experience in that space. collectively across all three businesses. But look, a lot of optimism. You can hear that coming through. And again, this isn't all we're going to be doing.
spk05: And simply put, just keep in mind that we serve multiple markets across tax codes, and we're a leader in the space. And so our value prop is resonating with our clients. And as Rob mentioned, we're quite excited by what we're seeing.
spk12: Great. Very helpful. Well, And then just staying on wealth, if I look at expenses for the full year, they look like they'll be up mid to high single digits. Can you just talk about actions you're taking as you head into 24 on expenses and how we should think about overall growth and expenses in wealth in 2024?
spk02: Yeah, look, Heather, I think hit a lot of the big drivers from a corporate perspective, how we're thinking about things, whether it's continued leverage of OIA India, the technology side of things. We've got a lot of work that the team is doing to continue to simplify our technology environment. That will continue into next year. You know, importantly, as we, I think, have all said, margin is what we're focused in on. And so we want to be at the same time we're managing the expense numbers, be driving the growth numbers. And in this environment, you know, there's pressure from spread and what's going on there because we – have certainly benefited, you know, prior year to this year on what has emerged there. We're going to continue to manage that in a balanced way, but I just come back to the operating margin focus that we've got, and we're going to, again, have both hands on the wheel and driving both top of the line and expenses.
spk05: Yeah, and I just want to reiterate that point, and this isn't just for wealth. It's across the organization. It's what we've done for years, and As Rob said, we've got two hands on the wheel in terms of expenses, and we'll lean in as needed to manage margins.
spk12: Okay, thank you.
spk08: We have reached the end of our question and answer session, and I would now like to turn the conference call back over to Heather Lavelle for any closing comments.
spk05: To summarize a few key messages, our results reflect the underlying strength of our businesses the benefits of our diversified revenues, and our strong track record of executing on our targets while continuing to invest for future growth. We remain on track to achieve our EPS CAGR target of 12% to 17% for the three-year period ending in 2024. As we look ahead, robust pipelines across all three businesses will power our growth into 2024 and beyond. We look forward to updating you on our progress. Thank you for joining us today.
spk08: This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
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