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spk02: Hello and welcome to VISTA's third quarter 2023 earnings call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw from the question queue, please press star then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Megan Horn, VP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
spk00: Good morning, and thank you all for joining Vistra's Investor Webcast discussing our third quarter 2023 results. Our discussion today is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and the earnings release. Leading the call today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Chris Moldovan, Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other Vistra senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary. Our earnings release presentation and other matters discussed on the call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the press release and in the appendix to the investor presentation available in the investor relations section of Vistra's website. Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements. I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statements included on slide two of the investor presentation on our website that explain the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation, and the use of non-GAAP financial measures. Thanks. And I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.
spk05: Thank you, Megan. Good morning, and I appreciate all of you for taking the time to join our third quarter 2023 earnings call. I am proud to deliver our third quarter results this morning, which was a very successful quarter for all facets of the business. We'll start this morning on slide five. I'll speak to this quarter's operational financial performance in more detail in a moment, but notably this quarter's adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations of approximately $1.6 billion underscored Vistra's capability of achieving consistently strong earnings through its integrated business model with excellent operational performance by each of our generation retail and commercial teams and a variety of pricing and weather environments. In the prior two quarters, we experienced average power prices clearing lower than our realized hedge prices, which highlighted the significant downside risk protection to our earnings that our comprehensive hedging strategy provides. This quarter, that scenario held in the markets outside of ERCOT where milder weather kept prices lower. In these markets, we were able to capitalize on our dynamic position management of our hedged portfolio to capture significant earnings in our generation segment. We saw this paradigm flip in the ERCOP market, and while we were significantly hedged, we did have some open length, and the generation fleet's operating flexibility was optimized by our integrated teams to respond to higher market prices while keeping the lights and much-needed air conditioning on at competitive prices for our customers throughout the markets we serve. With each of our four strategic priorities, our aim is to challenge ourselves with high performance goals and then consistently deliver. To that end, this quarter you saw us continue to advance our other three strategic priorities as well, as we focused on a strong balance sheet, our capital return program, and our energy transition goals. As of November 2nd, we've now returned over $3.785 billion of capital to our shareholders, through share-by-backs at our dividend program since the capital allocation was first announced in November of 2021. After we close energy harbor acquisition and develop a long-range plan for the combined company, we will work with our board on a new multi-year capital allocation plan and expect to disclose the specifics of that plan in the first half of 2024. In the meantime, we continue to opportunistically invest in renewables and energy storage growth, including our expectation that we will begin construction in spring of 2024 on our three largest solar and energy storage developments located at our former Illinois coal plant sites, while maintaining our sub-three times leverage ratio. I want to move now to slide six to discuss our third quarter operational performance. This past quarter, we saw unprecedented heat in ERCOT. It was the hottest third quarter on record, even beating the record-setting heat of 2011. Temperatures in Texas were six degrees above normal in August and early September, frequently topping 105 degrees in Dallas and over 100 degrees in Houston and San Antonio. Cooling degree days were 23% above the 30-year normal for the June through September comparable time period, and ERCOT set a new peak demand 10 different times this summer. On August 10th, ERCOT experienced its all-time record peak load of over 85,000 megawatts. It was vital for our generation team to keep the plants running in these extreme conditions to ensure the people of Texas could continue to live and work in healthy and comfortable environments. At ERCOT, the solar generation ramp-down hours of around 6 to 8 p.m. have proven to be a critical time period for the grid. It is still very hot during those times with strong customer energy demand. But it is also the time period where we see solar start to ramp down, and at times the wind may not make up the difference, especially in August. The ERCOT grid is operationally complex, having to predict the availability of not only dispatchable resources, but also intermittent resources such as solar and wind, limited duration energy storage, and demand response activities. As the generation mix of intermittent resources increases, ERCOT needs more reserves as a backstop to ensure there is adequate generation to cover demand and avoid emergency conditions. In these scenarios, you see flexible generation fleets like ours ramping to meet as much of this demand as possible. And that is exactly what we did, exceeding 97% commercial availability on average during those critical hours. During these tough weather seasons, our number one priority is ensuring our customers can consistently access competitively priced power to maintain their quality of life and keep the economy strong. That's where our retail business excelled. This summer's marketing campaign featured several differentiated products tailored to our customers' needs, including a seasonal discount product that helps customers manage the size of their electricity bill through the higher usage summer months. Our customer-focused multi-brand and marketing channel strategy and responsive service allowed us to grow our ERCOT residential customer accounts over the prior quarter. In addition, our business market segment grew customer volume 16% year-over-year at strong margins. While the retail and generation teams stood ready to meet these demands for our customers and the people we serve, Our commercial team optimized our financial position to create significant value for our shareholders. Specifically in August, the ERCOT market saw average real-time pricing around $196, with 43 hours in August clearing over $1,000. And during those critical hours of 6 to 8 p.m. in August, we saw prices clear on average around $843. Leveraging customer usage insights and our generation fleet's strong commercial availability, our commercial team optimized and managed our risk position to create significant value on our open positions. The commercial team further set us up for success in our markets outside of ERCOT where the weather was milder, strategically managing our positions and flexing our generation output to optimize our hedge positions and achieve strong results for the quarter. We see this trend of new peak demand records in ERCOT continuing for the foreseeable planning horizon Demand that we believe our retail products are designed to attract and our diverse and flexible generation fleet is uniquely positioned to serve. Moving now to slide seven, again, I am proud of the team's exceptional, tightly coordinated performance this quarter that helped Vistra achieve its $1,613,000,000 of ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA. Not only did the retail team grow residential customer accounts, TXU Energy maintained the PUC of Texas five-star rating, extending its streak to 12 straight months. Our ERCOT fleet delivered two and a half terawatt hours more than any other quarter's output in at least the past 10 years, a 10% increase over the next highest quarterly generation output achieved in the third quarter of 2019. It was a notable feat. that when paired with a strong performance by the commercial team to adapt to a variety of weather conditions, created significant value across all of our markets. With the important summer months behind us and only two months left in the year, today we are raising and narrowing the guidance range we announced last quarter from $3.6 to $4 billion in adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations to now $3.95 to $4.1 billion. We are similarly increasing and narrowing the range of adjusted free cash flow before growth from ongoing operations to a new range of $2.35 to $2.5 billion. Turning now to slide eight, we introduced 2024 guidance ranges for Vistra standalone without including any Energy Harbor contributions. We are forecasting adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations in the range of $3.7 to $4.1 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth from ongoing operations in the range of $1.9 to $2.3 billion. Notably, our ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint for 2024 of $3.9 billion is higher than the midpoint opportunities we previewed on our most recent earnings call in the range of $3.7 to $3.8 billion. We are confident in our forecast as we expect consistent earnings from our retail business paired with expected strong performances from our reliable, diverse, and flexible generation fleet that stands ready to deliver in a variety of economic and weather conditions, just as it has this year. Of course, we will update our guidance ranges to include Energy Harbor performance expectations after we close the acquisition. Speaking of the Energy Harbor acquisition, slide nine provides an update on the status of the transaction. Since we last spoke, we have received approval from the NRC in September, and we declared substantial compliance with the DOJ's second request on August 31st. We have responded to all requests from FERC, and that process is progressing. Given our commitment to sell the Richland Striker generation plants, which we believe eliminates any potential remaining concerns around market competition, we continue to target a closing before the end of the year. Our team has worked with the Energy Harbor team to prepare for a smooth integration, and we are prepared to close the transaction promptly after receiving approval from FERC. As noted before, we intend to provide combined Vistra and Energy Harbor forecast and guidance information after we close the acquisition. But as shown on slide 9, we continue to expect the Energy Harbor business to deliver an average of approximately $750 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2024 and 2025, including the impact of the hedges and synergies, with that number growing to approximately $900 million when considered on an open basis. I'll now turn the call over to Chris to discuss our quarterly performance in more detail.
spk01: Thank you, Jim. Turning to slide 11, VISTA's performance in Q3 2023 was a reflection of available opportunities and outstanding execution throughout the country by both are generation and retail segments. The generation segment exhibited the benefits of maintaining a diverse, flexible, and durable fleet of assets, with the team delivering strong results in both ERCOT, where third quarter temperatures were on average the hottest on record, and outside of ERCOT, where temperatures were milder. Notably, the $1,440,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations delivered by the generation segment in Q3 2023 was almost $400 million higher than the same quarter last year. Moving to the retail segment, despite the challenges of high loads and prices in ERCOT and Q3, the retail team delivered outstanding results for the quarter by focusing on customer counts and margins and consistently optimizing its supply position throughout the quarter. Although retail is not typically expected to contribute much adjusted EBITDA, if any, in the summer months when prices are higher, the team was able to deliver $173 million in Q3 this year. Looking at year-to-date, each of the generation and retail segments are outperforming as compared to last year, with Vistra earning over $800 million more in ongoing operations adjusted EVA through the third quarter this year as compared to the same period in 2022. We are proud of the team's execution thus far this year, and we are looking forward to finishing the year strong. Turning to slide 12, we provide an update on the execution of our CAPA allocation plan. As of November 2nd, we had executed approximately $3.26 billion of share repurchases, leading to an approximately 26% reduction in the number of shares that were outstanding in the fourth quarter of 2021. We expect to utilize the remaining approximately $1 billion of the total $4.25 billion authorization by year end 2024. However, as Jim noted, we do expect to review our capital available for allocation shortly after we close the energy harbor acquisition and would expect to announce a new comprehensive capital allocation plan in the first half of 2024. Moving to our dividend program, we announced last week a fourth quarter 2023 common stock dividend of 21.3 cents per share. which represents a substantial growth of 42% over the dividend paid in the fourth quarter of 2021 when our capital allocation plan was first established. This growth highlights the significant returns available to our shareholders as we reduce share count while paying a constant quarterly dividend amount. Turning to the balance sheet, in light of the results achieved in the third quarter, culminating in updated 2023 guidance ranges, Vistra's net leverage ratio currently sits significantly below three times. While net debt will increase upon closing of the Energy Harbor acquisition, we currently expect our net leverage ratio to be below three times on a pro forma basis in 2024. Finally, in addition to the transformation we are achieving with the Energy Harbor acquisition, the team has been busy with development and pre-construction activities this year at our three largest solar and energy storage developments at our former Illinois coal plant sites, for which we now anticipate construction to begin next spring. Despite some headwinds in this higher cost and interest rate environment, these projects continue to comfortably exceed our targeted return thresholds. As we've stated before, we believe in a responsible energy transition that targets disciplined capital outlays for strategic projects, and the zero carbon generation growth we will achieve with these three coal to solar sites are reflective of that core principle. Touching quickly on slide 13, as we have done in prior quarters, we have provided an update on the out-year forward price curves as of November 2nd. While the ERCOT forward price curve continues to reflect some backwardation, the prices still remain higher than the April 29, 2022 curves when we first spoke to you about increased EBITDA earnings potential in the out-years. The curves and sparks are holding together well and support our initiated 2024 guidance ranges. Those curves, together with the continued execution of our comprehensive hedging program, provide us confidence in an adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations midpoint opportunity for 2025 in the range of $3.8 to $4 billion. To wrap up, slide 14 provides some additional breakdown of our 2024 initiated guidance ranges, including midpoint expectations among the current business segments. As we have discussed previously, the acquisition of Energy Harbor will accelerate the transformation of our company, and we expect it to alter the way we analyze our business results. Accordingly, after we close the transaction, we expect to resegment our businesses. While we will have more to say on that after closing, we do expect to provide you with more visibility into our nuclear and renewable businesses. I want to reiterate Jim's comments. We are extremely proud of the collaborative work and performance of each of our generation retail and commercial teams. We have great line of sight to keep that momentum going for the foreseeable future. And we will keep striving to meet the expectations of our customers and our communities to keep the lights on in an affordable and reliable manner in markets in which we operate. And at the same time, we will manage the company in a cost-efficient and strategic manner to continue producing adjusted free cash flow yields that we are translating directly into significant returns for our shareholders. I know I speak on behalf of all of our employees and partners when I say that we are striving to end 2023 on a strong note and to execute against our targets for 2024. With that, operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.
spk02: Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then 2.
spk09: At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Today's first question comes from Michael Sullivan with Wolf Research.
spk02: Please go ahead.
spk04: Hey, everyone. Good morning. Hey, good morning, Michael. Hey, Jim, just wanted to start with maybe what kind of gives you conviction in being able to close the deal by the year end and we'll be able to hear something from FERC in a timely manner here?
spk05: Yes, Michael. You know, we've noted the progress that we've made with this transaction. You know, originally we thought NRC would be the longer pole in the tent, and we were pleased to get that approval a few months ago. Where we sit at the moment is we've got feedback from DOJ, and we think we've addressed DOJ's concern. We expect to have addressed FERC's concern by selling the Richland Stryker facility. We did not think it was a concern. At the time we initiated the deal, we still don't believe that's a concern, but out of an abundance of caution, we are making that move. We have obviously responded to all of their information requests, and the interveners have done the same. So our anticipation is that FERC has all the information that they need. We've asked for feedback by the middle of November. We feel confident that we'll get to something by the end of this year and that we're planning and targeting to close by the end of this year. But I think it's just been a process, Michael, and it's been one that we've been obviously very responsive to. And I think from a FERC standpoint, you know, they've got the information and they've got to do their due diligence, but there's been no new issues raised to us at this point, and that's why we think we're going to get this done by year end.
spk04: Okay, that's very helpful. And then just on the new financial outlook here, I wanted to ask on some of the dynamics below EBITDA at the free cash flow line. So it looks like the free cash flow for 23 actually improved more than EBITDA. So I wanted to get a sense of what's driving that. And then it looks like the conversion to free cash then drops again. in 24, and just also on that, I wanted to confirm, like, does that include the interest costs associated with the debt you issued for Energy Harbor, but obviously not the EBITDA yet? Yeah, sorry, that was a bunch there, but.
spk05: Yeah, Michael, thank you for that. I'll start by saying that, you know, our results for this year, which obviously we've continued to guide up as we've gone through the year, Most of that improvement is EBITDA-driven, and we did a nice job operating in the third quarter with extreme opportunities with pricing and weather being coincident, particularly in ERCOT. That EBITDA largely drops through to the bottom line. When we built the plan at the beginning of the year, you wouldn't have expected the kind of weather conditions that actually played out. So that free cash flow in this near term obviously will fall through and you're seeing that improved conversion. We started the year with an expected lower conversion rate because we wouldn't have had this kind of EBITDA opportunity built into a more normal weather scenario. We actually talked about free cash flow conversion being a little bit lower in 23 and 24 when we set our plans and we talked about the capital required to run the units. pulling in some of the long-term service agreement spend for CapEx was one of the main drivers. You'll see in the capacity factors that are in the back of the deck, our units have been running really well, but they've also been running hard. And so we'll spend some capital in 24 and probably have to spend some capital in 25 to make sure the fleet stays in tip-top condition. And so I think the surprise was not you know, where we see 24 playing out from a free cash flow conversion. We actually had some positive free cash flow conversion due to the EBITDA opportunities that came our way in 23. As far as energy harbor interest and how we're thinking about that financing and its effect on our results in 23 and 24, I'll ask Chris to comment.
spk01: Yeah, Michael, I think you hit it. There are a couple of factors. For 2023, we did plan for some financings that would have some interest that would hit into 2023. Those were, we didn't execute a financing until later in the year, and the first interest payment on that financing will be next year. So we actually, it's a little bit counterintuitive, but versus our plan from the start of the year, we're in a benefit position on interest for 2023. And then You're right, 2024, the number that you're seeing here does take into account the interest expense on the debt that we raised for Energy Harbor and that we're holding right now. And as you noted, we don't have any contribution from Energy Harbor results.
spk04: Okay, super helpful. Thanks a lot. Thank you, Michael.
spk02: Thank you. The next question is from Julian Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
spk06: Hey, good morning, team. Thank you guys very much. Really appreciate the opportunity to connect here. Just coming back to the capital allocation update commentary from the call real quickly. I mean, obviously, you're going to be introducing that anew here in the first half of the year, I think you said. But can you give us a little bit of a sense as to what the parameters are? I mean, is this just really about how to capitalize the business? Or are you thinking about this vis-a-vis, you know, new and novel growth avenues that could be emerging here, you know, pro forma for the acquisition and or any other directions? I just want to make sure I'm understanding everything you know, what you're saying there. Is this more about addressing the potential $25 and $26 billion buybacks, or is there something more that you're kind of alluding to in terms of how you think about the future growth of the business here?
spk05: Julian, thank you for the question. Good morning. I appreciate the comprehensive question on capital allocation. I think it's several things. First of all, as asked earlier, we want to close this Energy Harbor acquisition, get make sure we've got embedded fully a multi-year view of the potential for that business as well as the synergies that we're anticipating to be able to deliver over a multi-year basis. We also, because we've raised the VISTA standalone guidance, we see more cash available for allocation. So we want to put all that together and go through that process of discussion obviously with our board when we can have a comprehensive discussion about a number of things. We've mentioned some Vistra Zero opportunities in this deck that we will continue to execute on. The buyback program, we've been executing actually slightly ahead of pace. We would anticipate that when we come back through the approval process with the board, they'll remain supportive of the buyback program, potentially at the current or even a potential higher pacing than where we've been executing. We did not feel like going out too far at this point, given that we need to close the acquisition and put the full plan together. We didn't feel just highlighting one element of a buyback amount in 25 or 26 was appropriate at this point, but our commitment to our four strategic priorities and I think the execution against those has been on track, if not exceeded, and I would expect that to continue. As far as growth vectors, There are a lot of things that the future holds that are still being sorted out, particularly with the Inflation Reduction Act, and are there going to be opportunities here to utilize behind-the-meter opportunities, some of the hydrogen opportunities? I think just from our standpoint, we still own nearly 60 sites worth of land and interconnect, so we've got plenty of opportunities to still develop a number of avenues of our business from a growth strategy, but they need to meet our return requirements. And I think that's the discipline we wanted to continue to demonstrate through this presentation and why we want to come back with a comprehensive capital allocation plan is we have to look at all of the options on the table and look at the best ones and not just the ones that we've been executing on to this point. But I see us remaining focused on the four core And I think that's worked well. I think our investors understand our mindset around these. And we look forward to hopefully giving another set of opportunity for our investors to see how we'll create value once we close the Energy Harbor acquisition.
spk06: Yeah, absolutely. And just speaking of which, right, I mean, obviously, you know, the 24 guidance today is not apples to apples with maybe what street. quote-unquote is using out there? I mean, any chance that you could give us a little bit of a sense of what the EH impact is mark-to-market today, even in a ballpark sense, to try to kind of square your guidance?
spk05: Well, I think, Julian, it is a little bit from a timing standpoint, an apple and an orange, but I do think you can take a couple pieces and add them together. So if you look at our standalone guidance for next year, we're looking at at a midpoint of $3.9 billion. And then we unpacked the Energy Harbor 2425 numbers because what we wanted to do, we gave you an average last time of $750. Now we're unpacking it saying $700 for 2024. That's still using some data that we got originally through our cases, but we're tracking curves. We have a sense of, you know, things are about where they were at the time we announced the deal from a power price standpoint. So there alone, you're taking the 39 and the 700, you're getting to 4.6. You know, we had been at a midpoint of 4.35 on average when we gave you that direction when we announced the deal. So I think the two pieces just added together put us north of where we have been signaling the combined opportunity, and this still has the targeted synergy levels in here. I think we could potentially exceed those targeted synergy levels, but we need to get into the business fully, have the details around that execution plan before we would, you know, upsize anything there, Julian. So I do appreciate you calling out, because I think there's been some consensus that is included energy harbor and some that has been standalone. Our standalone is well north of anything that we have signaled at this point, and we think our energy harbor at this point is on track. And when we get into it, I think we might be able to find some additional upsides. But at this point, we're not reflecting that.
spk06: Right. At least on track with those synergies, it seems. But thank you very much again for the time, guys. Appreciate it. I'll pass it.
spk05: Thank you, Judy.
spk02: Thank you. The next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
spk08: Hey, thanks. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Good morning, David. Could you comment on the retail trends that you're seeing? Do you expect this retail strength to continue? And I guess looking into the 2024 guidance, you've got some solid growth that you're reflecting year over year in the retail segment. I'm wondering if 2024 could be, you know, potentially considered kind of a new baseline, I guess, for the performance of that segment.
spk05: Yeah, David, I'll start off. I'd like Scott Hudson, our president of retail, to add some commentary. I think the business, obviously, we break our business apart quite a bit. There's different geographies in the business. ERCOT has its own unique design. The other markets obviously have a different one more with the TDU. the wires company doing the billing. Our business has a very heavy residential footprint from an earnings profile standpoint, but a very large scale business and profitable business in the commercial and industrial segment. The business has performed better than we expected it to perform this year relative to plan. And next year is pretty flat to that. So I think it's actually more stable is how I would describe the retail business, not a large growth assumption or a moonshot required for us to be delivering in our 2024 guidance. And the team's done a really nice job adapting to a variety of weather conditions, extreme weather and ERCOT and actually milder than normal weather in most of the rest of the country. But I think the underlying trends are a function of the creative products and the marketing channels. And I'd like Scott to comment on that so you get a feel beyond just the numbers of how the team actually executes dynamically, you know, to meet customer needs.
spk03: Yeah, thank you, Jim, and thanks for the question. We did see strong margins and growth across all of our customer segments and geographies in the quarter over quarter. On the residential side in ERCOT, which is a large concentration of what we do, Jim mentioned these summer campaigns that we had, very successful across six brands we have in the markets across multiple areas. different products. Our seasonal discount product, which helps flatten the customer bill with the discount in the summers for the customer, is very popular. And then on the retention side, we have an advanced analytics team that actually identifies customers that we give customer credits to. We call them comfort credits, and that's also a way to retain customers in these very extreme summer periods. That's a program we've had in place for several years, but we continue to refine. You know, on the CNI side, what we see is that, you know, really strong margin performance. You know, when there's volatility in these markets and power costs are up and down, this is really an opportunity for us for really providers at scale that have reliable generation and sophisticated commercial capabilities. So we saw some nice margin expansion both in ERCOT and in the in the Midwest Northeast market. So those are just a few examples to give you a flavor. But, you know, to Jim's point, we're always looking to optimize our customer accounts, our margins, our risk capabilities, along with the customer experience. And it really is that optimization that allows the business to be consistent and stable.
spk05: And, David, the thing I would conclude on Scott's remarks, which were spot on with how we think about the business, is the customer can be put under a lot of pressure with volatile pricing. With the hedging strategies, which we've described before, pretty conservative about the way in which we procure to handle extreme weather. Our goal is to insulate the customer as much as possible from those kinds of bill shocks. That helps franchise value in the long run. It helps the customer sort of get through the seasonal events. But it does take resources to hedge at that level. It takes capital. You have to post collateral at times. You have to be a little bit more conservative on how you think about some of your pricing structures. But I think it pays off in the long run. And that's why the business not only had a really strong financial quarter, they grew counts in the quarter. Growing counts in the quarter as being one of the largest market share participants, is not an easy thing to do. But if you're providing that stable value proposition to the customer, the customers do respond well. And I think that's where we shine better, is when we've got this kind of volatility. That's when the model, I think, really differentiates itself.
spk08: Yeah, excellent. Yeah, I appreciate that, Collar. And thanks for the clarification on the trajectory into 2024. And could I ask just does the retail contribution as you look into 2025 and the indicative midpoint guidance there, does it stay flat into that year off of 24?
spk05: David, we haven't put anything out specifically on retail, but we've given you a sense of where we see 25 you know on a combined entity but yes we see it staying fairly flat and most of the delta that we'd expect to see if any in 25 would be more driven by where the generation segment is we're highly hedged in 25 but we have carry more open there so you might see a little bit more variation there than we'd expect to see in retail yep got it understood and um
spk08: Just to push out even further, just any directional thoughts on 2026, you know, how much might be hedged at this point and just directional trend off of 2025? Sure. Yeah.
spk05: If you look at the curves, David, 2026 is looking stronger than 2025. That particularly has moved in the ERCOT region from the last time we spoke. In fact, when we had our call in August, It was August 9th and August 10th was the all-time peak in ERCOT, so we were busy and we talked about how we needed to make sure that we got through the summer. Most of the pricing volatility in ERCOT came in the back half of August, and I think the forward curve started to reflect that the sort of on-paper level of reserve margin may not actually be what the actual reserve margins are under stress conditions. So we have seen the curves move up. As Chris noted, they're higher than where they were in May of 22, still backward-dated, but they are higher, and I think that's a reflection of this supply-demand calculation that folks are revising for ERCOT. We are still majority open out in that 2026 time period. We have not provided a hedge position, but our anticipation at the moment is is that Energy Harbor also has largely remained open in 2026. That's why we were comfortable saying we expect it to be around that $900 million range. And then we see upside from where we sit today for the rest of the Vistra standalone for 2026 relative to 2025. Okay, excellent.
spk08: I appreciate it. Thanks for the time. Thank you, David.
spk02: Thank you. The next question comes from Andrews. I'm sorry, Angie Surzynski with Seaport. Please go ahead.
spk10: Good morning. Good morning, Angie. Good morning. I just have a question about market power issues, if any, and how those could prevent you from any additional transactions. So, you know, you were clearly surprised by the issue that came up with Energy Harbor at the FERC level. And again, is there any lesson learned from it? Again, do you think that you have grown to the point where you might encounter those issues in other PJM zones?
spk05: Angie, we, I don't think we've really learned anything specifically from this other than deals get a lot of scrutiny. We actually have, in all of our filings and all of the screens we've done that we need to do in order to make our filings complete, we did not see and still don't believe that these assets are pivotal in that regard. So I still think we'd look at the situation the exact same way as we did when we made the announcement. But we do want to move forward and get this deal done. So we made the modification that we made. You know, even in ERCOT, you know, our market share, because the markets continue to grow, we're more like a 14%, 15% market share number, so there's even headroom for us to do something in ERCOT, and that's where we have the highest level of relative size compared to others in the market. So, no, I think the field is still open, Angie. I think, you know, we'd love to obviously get this done and move forward, and we want to be constructive and work with the regulatory bodies to make sure that that happens in a way they're comfortable. But no, I don't think there's anything to read through at this point. Of course, we haven't heard finally from FERC on this matter, but we feel very good about our position on this, and we think we have headroom to do additional transactions in all the markets.
spk10: Great. And then you mentioned that you guys are waiting for some qualifications around the IRA, especially as those relate to the behind-the-meter installations. So I'm just wondering if that's specifically referring to, you know, nuclear PTCs and how transactions with affiliates or non-affiliates will be counted towards the energy growth, whatever receipts or margin that is currently in the role. Again, a little bit more clarity around what you're waiting for to see.
spk05: Yes, so we obviously await guidance from the IRS on a couple of matters. You know, the whole hydrogen topic and whether nuclear, existing nuclear is going to qualify, you know, as a clean energy source, whether it's behind the meter or what they call hydrogen by wire where it's more contracted through a PPA type structure. you know, we await clarification on that. We don't have growth built into our plans for that. We're not assuming an upside yet on our plans, but that's something, Angie, that we obviously await guidance on. I think the more immediate material guidance will be the nuclear PTC and what is the revenue basis for determining whether an asset has earned some of the PTC because the realized revenue rate is below the floor level We expect to get that guidance some point in the spring, but we're not sure how soon it could come. Obviously, it goes into effect beginning of next year. Once again, we've not assumed any PTC value in our long-range plan, but the way we think about it is the curves are right at and slightly above where we see the PTC floor. it's unclear that it would apply at this moment. Now, there is indexing to that PTC, so if the curve stayed flat, you might inflate your way into earning some of the PTC. It is still unclear about how affiliate transactions would work, but I feel like there's been a commentary and some acknowledgement that some basis of spot, whether it's real-time or day-ahead prices, that there needs to be some reflection of what the market value is of the power and not just how the hedge transactions either were done at the portfolio level or at the asset level. I think that's a cleaner way to think about it is to think about something in the real time or day ahead market as a better benchmark for the value at the hub of the power. But again, we await that guidance. It's not baked into the plan, and I think it provides some downside protection. We're not 100% sure how much yet, but since we still have the upside of where the curves could go for the nuclear assets, whether it's Texas or Pennsylvania, Ohio, we view it as a real opportunity that the IRA provides. We just don't have clarity on the size of that opportunity at this point.
spk10: Great. And if I could ask one last one. So there's some additional media scrutiny around the supply of nuclear fuel and the reliance on Russia here. I remember that you mentioned that Energy Harbor is well hedged for nuclear fuel. But given that you are doubling down on nuclear power, I'm just wondering if you have a way to manage the Russia risk, you know, either direct or indirect exposure to 10x, especially.
spk05: Yes, Angie, good question. It is something that the whole industry is paying attention to because it can affect prices for domestic products. and more global sources beyond Russia as a source. So it's got implications whether you're sourcing directly from Russia or not. We have increased some of our nuclear fuel purchases. We've done that as Vistra. And we have done that both for our own needs but also in anticipation of closing this transaction. So I feel very good about our financial and our physical supply with or without any Russian exposure over the next several years. And we feel that we're in good shape from a VISTA standalone actually for the next four to five years. But from a combined basis, since we don't have all the detail beyond the next couple years at this point from Energy Harbor, I think our fleet-wide purchases will actually help bridge anything we'll see on a combined basis. But we have our – we've started working this issue. We started working it even before we made an announcement about Energy Harbor because obviously this conflict dates back in time. But I think we have done a very nice job. The team's done a nice job not only hedging for the physical part but financially hedging. Curves are up for nuclear fuel, there's no doubt. You know, you'll see nuclear fuel quotes, you know, in the $9 to $10 a megawatt hour kind of range. That's kind of an all-in. We're still, and I mentioned we were, you know, historically we were closer to $5, trending up to $6 for Vistra standalone through 2026. That's still where we are. We don't have all the details on the Energy Harbor cost per. I know they reset some of theirs early on as they did their restructuring. But we could have some exposure towards the back end of a five-year planning horizon on price just because the curves have moved up. But there's also discussion about domestic sources and incentivizing additional supply non-Russian that may come into play towards the back end of our planning horizon. But I think we've substantially de-risked physically and financially there, Angie.
spk10: Great. Thank you.
spk05: Thanks, Angie.
spk02: Thank you. The final question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
spk07: Hey, good morning, team. Thanks for taking my questions. Hey, Jim, just a more pointed question on the capital allocation. And I appreciate you're going to go to the board and we'll have a plan here in the first half of next year. But, you know, given the move in the stock, and I asked you this in the last call as well, Do you kind of still view that the security is undervalued here as we think about buybacks prospectively beyond 2024?
spk05: Yes, it's always difficult for management teams to predict where things will go. But yes, if you look at the multiples and our now raised EBITDA guidance levels and our expected free cash flow generation, I think the multiples are just staying where they've been and we're just reflecting a much stronger business profile. I think you can obviously make your case as to what's the right multiple to put on the business. I think there's been a view that the free cash flow yields need to be, you know, 20 plus percent in order to compensate for the risk of being in the business. I think our integrated model has shown a real stability to the business model. And we've seen various weather conditions, pricing conditions play out, you know, over the course of this year. And I think our team is managed through that exceedingly well, and we've raised the out year. So I know Chris put in more of an exclamation point on this on the last call, and I'd be interested to see if his view has changed, but I'm pretty sure it hasn't. But I'd like to let him close on this, because I want to make sure you guys know we're sticking with these four core principles.
spk01: Yeah, Durgas, I'll just point out, obviously, as you can see by the pace of our buybacks, we've actually picked up the pace in the third and fourth quarter. And as Jim mentioned, as we look forward, we still have to get with the board and talk about a comprehensive plan. But as Jim mentioned, our intention would be to maintain that. the pace that we've set this year, and potentially look to see whether it should stay that same pace going forward or whether it should be increased. So we still feel good about the prices at which we're buying our stock today.
spk07: Got it. That's perfectly clear, guys. Thank you both. And then just can I go back to the 16%? I think that was the number one six of customer count growth in the retail segment. Can you just... provide a little bit more color? Is that predominantly ERCOT? And then just for us to kind of digest that, what's like a five-year average so we can see how strong this quarter was really?
spk03: Yeah, I can take that one. This is Scott Hudson. The number that was referenced is in the appendix slide in the materials, but it's volumetric growth in our CNI market business. And we've seen a lot of success in that business, both in ERCOT and in the Midwest Northeast markets through these times of volatility. I think what you find is that larger, sophisticated customers want to work with players of scale because we can structure a lot of complex products, whether those be indexed, fixed, ability to pass through new charges in the ERCOT markets. We see a shift of customers to the larger players in this particular environment.
spk05: Yeah, Dagesh, I think Scott covered it. We had residential growth, but the 16% was a business, a volumetric growth. And so both businesses grew, and they grew their business not only in Texas but outside of Texas. So it was really strong performance for the business to fundamentally grow in sort of a very dynamic power market.
spk07: Thanks. Appreciate the call, guys. Thank you. Thanks, Dagesh.
spk02: Thank you. This concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to hand the call back to Jim Burke for closing remarks.
spk05: Yes, I want to close by thanking the men and women of Vistra for their hard work and for delivering an exceptional quarter, you know, for our customers and the communities we serve. We appreciate your interest in Vistra. And as you saw in our presentation, we have a lot to still accomplish. and layouts, and we look forward to laying that out for you and speaking to you again soon, hopefully after we have closed here on the Energy Harbor acquisition. And we wish you all a great morning. Thank you.
spk02: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
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