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spk00: Good day, everyone. Welcome to the earnings call for Western Alliance Band Corporation for the fourth quarter 2020. Our speakers today are Ken Vicchione, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Dale Gibbons, Chief Financial Officer. You may also view the presentation today via webcast through the company's website at www.westernalliancebandcorporation.com. The call will be recorded and made available for replay after 3 p.m. Eastern time January 22nd, 2021 through February 22nd, 2021 at 11 p.m. Eastern time by dialing 1-800-585-8367 using conference ID 909-0267. The discussion during this call may contain forward-looking statements that relate to expectations, beliefs, projections, future plans and strategies, anticipated events or trends and similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. The forward-looking statements contained herein reflect our current views about future events and financial performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, assumptions and changes in circumstances that may cause our actual results to differ significantly from historical results and those expressed in any forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical or expected results are included in this presentation. The related earnings release and our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Except as required by law, the company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Now for the opening remarks, I would like to turn the call over to Ken Vignone. Please go ahead.
spk03: Good afternoon, and welcome to Western Alliance's fourth quarter earnings call. Joining me on the call today is Dale Gibbons and Tim Bruckner, our chief financial officer and chief credit officer. I will first provide an overview of our quarterly results and how we are managing business in this current economic environment, and then Dale will walk you through the bank's financial performance. Afterwards, we will open the line to take your questions. In 2020, Western Alliance broke many of our own records for balance sheet growth, net interest income, and earnings, all the while fortifying our balance sheet position. Our strategy to align the company with strong borrowers nationwide provided us the strength and flexibility to navigate the economic volatility as we grew our balance sheet and income while simultaneously managing asset quality. Despite external challenges, financially, 2020 was a strong year and was our 11th consecutive of rising earnings. For the year, we produced record net revenues of $1.2 billion, net income of $506.6 billion, and EPS of $5.04, 4% greater than 2019, despite increasing the provision expense by $124 billion. Our focus continues to be on PPNR growth, which rose approximately 20%, $746 million, and net interest income increased $126.5 million, or 12%, while total expenses increased a modest $9.6 million. To put this in perspective, 2020 revenue expanded more than 13 times the rate of expenses in a difficult, uneven, and complex operating environment. Given all these actions, Ansible book value per share grew 16.4% year-over-year to $30.90. Turning to the fourth quarter results, we achieved a record $193.6 million in net income and EPS of $1.93 per quarter, an increase of 54% from prior year. These results benefited from a $34.2 million reversal credit loss provision consistent with our strong asset quality results. and improved go-forward consensus economic outlook. Outstanding quarterly loan and deposit growth of $1 billion and $3.1 billion respectively lifted total assets to $36.5 billion, which was driven by broad-based growth throughout our business lines and geographies as clients begin to plan their investments for future opportunities. Additionally, several of our internal business initiatives gained traction, For the full year, loans increased $4.5 billion, excluding Triple P program, by 21%, and deposits grew a record-shattering $9.1 billion, which we believe creates a strong funding foundation for ongoing loan and earnings growth as the economy continues to heal from COVID shutdowns. This balance sheet growth propels Medicare's income to climb $315 million for the quarter, or 16% on a year-over-year basis. Quarterly NAM was 3.84%, up 13 basis points from the third quarter as triple B income improved and CB costs fell. Fee income increased to $23.89 for the quarter, aided by $6.4 million of equity and warrant income. On a four-year basis, fee income grew a healthy 8.8%, $70.8 billion. Full-year operating non-interest expense grew $9.6 million to $491.6 million, reducing an efficiency ratio of 38.8%. In the fourth quarter, our efficiency ratio improved to 38.2% as revenue growth was four times non-interest expense growth and continues to provide incremental flexibility to grow PPNR. Asset quality continued to improve this quarter as our COVID remediation strategy produced increasingly positive results for our clients. Total classified assets declined $102 million in Q4, the 61 basis points of total assets, which is lower than Q1 2020 levels on both a relative and absolute dollar amount, just as the pandemic impact was being felt. At quarter end, total deferrals has fallen to $190 million of 70 basis points of total loans, including $77 million for low-LTV residential loans. As of today, there are less than $10 million of deferrals excluding the residential portfolio, and all of our hotel franchise finance loans are paid as agreed. These noticeably positive credit trends, the improved consensus economic outlook, and loan growth in the low-risk asset classes drove our $34.2 million release in loan loss reserves this quarter. Here we'll go into more detail on specific drivers of our provision, but our total loan ACL to funded loan ratio, excluding triple P loans, now stands at 1.24%, or $316 million. And total loan ACL to total classified assets is 142%. Charge-offs were $3.9 million in Q4, and full-year charge-offs were six basis points of loans. A robust PPNR generation continues to drive strong capital levels with a CDT loan ratio of 9.9%, supporting 28% year-over-year loan growth. Return on average assets and return on average tangible common equity were 161 basis points and 17.8% spectrum. we remain one of the most profitable banks in the industry. As we demonstrated throughout 2020, we will continue to support our clients and are encouraged by their participation in the Triple C program as the second round is rolling out. We have begun processing applications and are seeing steady volumes. But given the size constraints and other factors, we don't expect the total amount to rise to the levels we saw in round one. Finally, and most importantly, all of our accomplishments not be achieved without the immense efforts made by the people of Western Alliance to successfully respond to the challenging COVID-19 environment, which has strongly positioned and prepared the company for whatever may come our way as we enter 2021. We take pride in our peer-meeting performance in good times, but above all, during the challenging moments. Dan will now take you through our financial performance. Thanks, Gary. For the quarter, Western Alliance generated net income of $193.6 million, or $1.93 EPS, each at more than 40% on a linked quarter basis. As mentioned, net income benefited from a release of provision expense of $34.2 million, primarily driven by improvement in the economic outlook during the quarter and low growth and lower risk asset classes. Net income grew $30.1 million during the quarter to $314.8 million, an increase of 10.6% quarter over quarter and significantly above Q2's performance to which we guided. Non-interest income increased $3.2 million to $23.8 million for the prior quarter, supported by $5.1 million of warrant gains related to our technology lending. Non-interest expense increased $8.1 million, mainly driven by an increase in incentive accruals as our fourth quarter performance exceeded the original budget targets. which were established pre-pandemic. Continued balance sheet growth generating superior net interest income, growth pre-provision, net revenue of $206.4 million, up 30.4% year-over-year, and up substantially from the first and third quarters of 2020, as the second quarter benefited from one-time items of Triple B loan fee recognition and Banco Life Insurance restructuring. For the year, Western Alliance generated record net income of $506.6 million, or $504 per share, an increase over full year 2019, even when considering elevated provision expense of $124 million for the year. Net interest income grew $126.5 million during the year to $1.2 billion, an increase of 12.2% year over year, mainly attributable to increased loan balances triple P loan fees, and a 49% reduction in interest expense. Non-interest income increased $5.7 million to $70.8 million from the prior year. We recognize the one-time benefit of a fully restructuring during Q2 of $5.6 million. Finally, non-interest expense increased $9.6 million, or just 2% over the year, as increases in short-term incentive accruals and technology costs were offset by lower deposit costs. Turning out our net interest drivers, investment yields decreased 18 basis points from the prior quarter to 261 and fell 35 basis points from the prior year due to a lower rate environment. On a linked quarter basis, loan yields rose 20 basis points following increased yields across most loan types, mainly driven by a changing loan mix and higher PPP yields related to prepayment assumptions on forgivable amounts. 3P yield for the quarter was 3.67% compared to 1.76% for the third quarter. Interest-bearing deposit costs were reduced by 6 basis points in Q4 to 25, with an end-of-the-quarter spot rate of 23 basis points as higher-cost CDs rolled off. Spot rate for total deposits, which includes non-interest-bearing deposits, was 13 basis points. We expect funding costs have essentially stabilized at these levels. However, there could be marginal benefits as higher cost CDs continue to mature and are replaced at lower rates. Current spot rates indicate a relatively stable margin as we enter 2021. Some decline in loan yield is expected as the mix has changed to lower risk segments. With regards to our asset sensitivity, our rate risk profile has declined notably since the beginning of 2019. with 82% of our loans now behaving as fixed due to floors or variable rate loans and mixed shifts towards fixed rate residential loans. We continue to be asymmetrically positioned to benefit from any future rate increases with an estimated increase in net interest income of 5.7% from a 100 basis point rate increase in a parallel shock scenario versus a 0.9% contraction in net interest income if rates fell and flatlined at zero. As Ken mentioned, this year we demonstrated our ability to grow net interest income by 15.7% year-over-year despite the transition to a substantially lower rate environment. Net interest income increased 30.1 million or 10.6% during the quarter as net interest margin increased 3.84%. Margin benefited from both the true-up related to three triple P fee recognition favorable deposit mix shift can improve deposit rates. As mentioned earlier, during the fourth quarter, our extraordinary deposit growth and building liquidity continues to weigh on the margin and had a negative impact of nine basis points this quarter. Adjusting for this, the margin would have been slightly above the 3.9% guidance we gave during the last quarter recall. 3P loans increased our NIM during Q4 by 11 basis points as we trued up from the changes to prepayment assumptions made during Q3, resulting in a 3P loan yield of 3.67%. Notice the gold line on the bar chart showing NIM excluding volatility related to 3P. NIM was 3.8% for Q4 and essentially flat from the third quarter. Average excess liquidity relative the loans increased $467 million in the quarter, the majority of which is held at the FRB earning minimal returns, which reduced NIM by approximately nine basis points in aggregate. Given our healthy loan pipeline and ability to deploy these funds to higher-yielding earning assets, we expect margin drag to dissipate in coming quarters. Referring to the chart on the lower left section of the page of the $43 million in total triple fee loan fees net of origination costs, $11 million was recognized in the fourth quarter. We recognize the reversal of 3P loan fees in the third quarter of $6.4 million and expect fee recognition to be approximately $6.6 million in Q1 and taper off as prepayments and forgiveness are realized. As the second round of 3P is just underway, These fee accretion assumptions only apply to the initial round of funding. Turning now to efficiency, our efficiency ratio improved to 38.2% in Q4 as the increase in expenses was outweighed by revenue growth and only rose 2% from the fourth quarter of 2019. Excluding PPP net loan fees and interest, the efficiency ratio for the quarter would have been 39.9%. and as we indicated last quarter, should be returning to historical levels in the low 40s. Pre-provision net revenue increased 25.2 million or 13.9% from the prior quarter and 30.4% from the same period last year. This resulted in pre-provision net revenue ROA of 2.37 for the quarter, an increase of 15 basis points from Q3 and equal to the year-ago period. This strong performance in capital generation provides us significant flexibility to fund ongoing balance sheet growth, capital management actions, or meet credit demands from our clients. Our strong balance sheet momentum continued during the quarter as loans increased $1 billion net of $271 million of Triple P loan payoffs to $27.1 billion, and deposit growth of $3.1 billion brought our deposit balance to $31.9 billion at year end. Inclusive of 3B, loans grew 28% year-over-year, while deposits grew approximately 40% year-over-year with our focus on low-loss loan segments and DBA. The loan-to-deposit ratio decreased 84.7% from 90.2% in Q3 as our strong liquidity position continues to provide us with balance sheet capacity to meet funding needs. As deposit growth continues to outpace loan origination, our cash position remains elevated at $2.7 billion a year end. However, we believe it provides us inventory for selected credit growth as demand resumes. Finally, tangible book value per share increased $1.87 over the prior quarter to $30.90, with an increase of $4.36, or 16.4%, over the prior year. Our strong loan growth is a direct result of our flexible business model, which combines national commercial banking relationships with our regional footprint and enables thoughtful growth throughout economic cycles. The vast majority of the $1 billion in growth was driven by increases in C&I loans of $655 million, supplemented by CRE non-owner-occupied loans of $248 million. Residential and consumer loans now comprise 9.2% of our loan portfolios. while construction loan concentration increased modestly to 9% of total loans. Within the CNI growth for the quarter and highlighting our focus on low-risk assets, capital call lines grew $408 million, mortgage warehouse lines grew $413 million, and corporate finance loans decreased $122 million this quarter. Residential loan originations added $56 million to balances by quarter end net of refinance activities. We continue to believe our ability to profitably grow deposits is both a key differentiator and a core value driver to our firm's long-term value creation. Notably, year-over-year deposit growth of $9.1 billion is more than double the annual deposit growth of any previous calendar year. Deposits from $3.1 billion are 10.7% in the fourth quarter, driven by increases in savings and money market of $1.8 billion, interest-bearing DDA of $842 million, and non-interest-bearing DDA of $450 million, which comprises 42% of our deposit base. Robust activity in tech and innovation and market share gains in Mortgage Warehouse continue to be significant drivers of deposit growth during the quarter. Additionally, one of our deposit initiatives that is fully online contributed over $1 billion in deposit growth in 2020. Looking at asset quality, total classified assets decreased $102 million in Q4 due to credit upgrades, payoffs, and refinance activity away from wall. Our non-performing loans and ORE ratio decreased to 32 basis points to total assets, and total classified assets fell to 61 basis points of total assets at year-end, which was below the ratio at the end of 2019. Special mention loans decreased $26 million during the quarter to 1.67% of funded loans. As we've discussed before, special mention loans are a result of our credit mitigation strategy to early identify, elevate, and apply heightened monitoring to loans or segments impacted by the current COVID environment and fluctuate as credit migrates in and out. We do not see a risk of material losses coming from these credits. Regarding loan deferrals, as Ken mentioned, as of today, we have less than $10 million of deferrals, excluding approximately $77 million in low-LTV residential loans with a rated average loan-to-value of under 67%. All of our hotel franchise finance loans are paying as agreed, and our sophisticated hotel sponsors continue to confirm support for their projects. Net credit losses of $3.9 million per six basis points of average loans were recognized during the quarter, compared to $8.2 million in Q3. Our loan allowance for credit losses decreased $39 million from the prior quarter to $316 million due to improvement in economic forecasts and loan growth in portfolio segments with low expected loss rates. In all, the total ACL to funded loans declined 20 basis points to 1.7% or 1.24% when excluding Triple P loans. On a more granular level, our low-loss classes account for approximately 40% of our portfolio and include mortgage warehouse, residential and HOA lending, capital call lines, public finance, and resort lending. When excluding these components, the ACL for funds and loans under a major of the portfolio is 1.7%. We continue to generate significant capital and maintain strong regulatory capital ratios, with tangible common equity tangible assets of 8.6% and a common equity tier one ratio of 9.9, a decrease of 10 basis points during the quarter due to our strong loan growth. Inclusive of our quarterly cash dividend payment of 25 cents per share, our tangible book value per share rose $1.87 in the quarter to $30.90, an increase of 16% in the past year. We continue to grow our tangible book value per share rapidly as it increased at three times that of the peer group for the past six years. I'll now hand the call back over to Jim. Thanks, Dale. We believe that our fourth quarter performance is the baseline for future balance sheet and earnings growth. Building off the robust growth we had in the fourth quarter, our pipelines are strong, and we expect loan and deposit growth of $600 million to $800 million for the next several quarters. Both loans and deposits each have their own cyclical and seasonal behavior that are not aligned on a quarterly basis. As Dale mentioned, given our deposit growth and liquidity build, we expect there to be some downward pressure on NIM related to NICS changes and the deployment of liquidity into attractive asset classes. Additionally, we will continue to see NIM influence on a quarterly basis by the wave of Triple P loans being forgiven and the second round of Triple P loans coming online. Strong PPNR growth will continue as balance sheet momentum will drive higher net interest income, which more than offsets the planned increase in non-interest expense. Looking ahead, we will continue to invest in new product offerings and infrastructure to maintain operational efficiency. which will eventually push our efficiency ratio back to sustainable levels in the low 40s. Our long-term asset quality and loan loss reserves are informed by the economic consensus forecast, which, if consistent going forward, could imply a steady reserve ratio. Depending on the timing and pace of the recovery, there could be some loan migration into the special mention category, but we do not expect material migration into substandard, We believe that the provisions in excess of charge-offs since the pandemic began are more than sufficient to cover charge-offs through the cycle, as we do not see any indicators that apply material losses are on the horizon. Finally, Wall is one of the most prolific capital generators in the industry. Our strong capital base and access to ample equipment will allow us to take advantage of any market dislocations and any leading risk-adjusted returns, and to address any future credit all while maintaining flexibility to improve shareholder returns. At this time, Dale, Tim, and I are happy to take your questions.
spk00: Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for just a moment. You can pause the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from Brad Millsaps with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.
spk03: Hey, guys. How are you doing?
spk02: Good, Brad.
spk03: Dale, just wanted to maybe kind of focus in on the margin, the balance sheet. It sounds like you're going to be able to mostly fund the growth that you expect this year with continued deposit growth. Would you anticipate with the liquidity that you have continuing to add to the bond portfolio? And then just as a follow-up to that, it did look like The loan fees ex PPP were maybe higher than normal this quarter. Can you address that? Have you found a new loan category that might generate more fees or is that something that might be considered abnormal? Yeah, so if you probably saw, we did increase bond purchases in the fourth quarter. I think that that is going to continue. We're under 85% on a loan-to-deposit ratio. We're certainly comfortable with that climbing. I'm not sure that's going to happen as the deposit pipeline continues to look fairly strong to us, certainly. So if that's the case, I think we do want to deploy some of this capital. I mean, we've been sitting on a large chunk of cash. It hasn't been all negative, although the returns we're getting are quite nominal. You know, I mean, the yield curve has backed up a little bit. So I'd rather start extending now in terms of investments rather than, you know, maybe last fall when, you know, it was difficult to even reach 1% on a residential mortgage-backed securities from a GSE. In terms of the loan fees, yeah, you're right, Brad. That number, even excluding triple P, was elevated in the fourth quarter, and I'm going to call that essentially a bit non-recurring. We just had some things that paid off that helped that number. You can kind of see that if you look at the note rate versus the average rate for the loan book, and then it's a little bit lower at the end of the year than it was for the fourth quarter. That's reflected in there that the yield was a little bit higher. So that will be... a little bit lower loan fees kind of going forward, excluding Triple P. That said, Triple P could be up here as, you know, as we're just getting started on round two. Great. That's helpful. And then final question to you, and I'll hop back in the queue. Just around the hotel portfolio, I think you both said that it's, you know, paying as agreed, don't have any deferrals in that category. Should we understand that as it's paying as agreed under the terms of your six plus six or three plus three program? Or are all of these operators, all of your institutional borrowers actually making new P&I payments that they didn't put up as escrow initially? Brad, the deferral programs are completed. So these guys are paying as agreed under the original terms. We're seeing good sponsorship and commitment to these properties. And as Tim Bruckner always tells me, our sponsors at least feel they can see the end of this issue coming with the vaccine being released and being implemented. It's their impression and ours as well that this won't be going on for too much longer, and that's what makes them feel comfortable to continue to support the properties. Plus, as you know, we've got a very good loan-to-value here, and there's a lot of equity sitting in front of us. Would you be able to say kind of what percentage of the properties are supporting themselves with their own cash flow without the sponsor support? Can you define it that way? I'll tell you how I would define it. Overall, our October or November occupancy was about 42%. And I would say that I'm trying to think of the best way to give you that answer. I would say about two-thirds of our hotel book had occupancies over operating expenses. So when you think about it, if you go back a year, the break-even point was a 39% occupancy level. Today, the 39% still holds, but what's changed is the red bar has come down dramatically, but operators have been able to cut out their expenses in order to keep their cash flow generating, to generate the cash flow to offset their operating expenses. They haven't fully yet gotten to the point where they can cover debt service coverage. Great. Very helpful. Thank you guys very much.
spk00: Your next question comes from Michael Young with Surest Securities. Your line is open.
spk03: Hey, thanks for the question. I wanted to follow up real quick on Brad's question on the hotel book and maybe even tack on the casino book as well. And just kind of an update in light of the second round of PPP. I assume most of those operators will be eligible, and so that will give them a nice capital and cash infusion as well that won't be as dependent on the sponsors. Is that fair? Yeah. Well, you know, the first time around, we probably put out between $32 and $36 million of Triple P loans. A lot of the hotels don't get the cash flow from Triple P because they've got separate management companies away from the hotels that manage them. So I would expect that, you know, the amount of Triple T funding that's going to go to the hotel group will be less than round one. And also there's a cap on the amount of dollars that's being distributed, no greater than $2 million. I would add, and we'll follow with gaming, we underwrite sponsorship as much as we underwrite the hotel or when we underwrite our hotel book. So they're not, as Ken mentioned, at 36 on the first round, not a big taker of PVD for two reasons. One, because of the strength of sponsorship, and two, because the PVD follows the payroll and the structure of the hotel. Loans usually have that at the management company. So we don't expect a big taker. We also are in... such frequent and ongoing dialogue that we don't see the inability of sponsorship to carry. We're very confident in that ongoing sponsorship and the relationship that we have there. With respect to gaming, our gaming, again, is off-strip. So most of our gaming won't qualify for PPP because they've got revenue gains not revenue reduction. So the gaming portfolio has really moved out of the spotlight in terms of concern because of the strong performance that we've seen. Yeah, I would categorize it as since 100% is all stripped, 100% of the casinos are open for business, the portfolio has demonstrated the ability to operate at break-even cash flow or better in these times. The majority are outperforming They're pre-COVID, pre-COVID revenue and cash flow plans. And when you think about that statement, why would they be doing that? There's no place else for people to go. And these casinos are open. Plus, they've received funds from the government that they have a little excess cash or they haven't spent a lot of their cash. So it represents a form of entertainment. And just to reemphasize what Tim said, this portfolio does not represent an outsized risk or concern for us at this time. Okay, that's really helpful, Culler. And maybe just touching on the growth side, you know, the $600 to $800 million you called out, can you, you know, maybe peel back the onion on that a bit and just give us a little color on what you're seeing today, in particular, you know, with mortgage warehouse potentially being a pressure on a year-over-year basis. Is that guidance kind of held for investment loans, or does that include the warehouse, et cetera? Yeah. So, um, first thing I'll say 6,800 is a little bit higher than what we said in the previous quarters, which was five, $800 million. So I would, I would note that, um, I would tell you during the cost of the year for 2020, we had a lot of growth come in our capital call business, and that was over $800 million warehouse lending. This is traditional warehouse lending year over year. grew by $1.7 billion. But note financing grew by $400 million. All the bank regions collectively grew by $500-plus million. And our resi grew by $300 million, followed by tech and innovation growing $125 million. And even our resort lending grew year-over-year $182 million. As we think, that's a perspective backwards. As we think about forward for 2021, in that number, we have little to no growth coming out of traditional warehouse lending. We're assuming that it just holds its position at year-end predominantly. Now, if we're surprised, we want to be surprised on the upside, but we didn't build a lot of that opportunity yet. And where I just went through the full year results for 2020, you could see that a lot of that would come forward into 2021. And as Dale, like I always remind folks, you know, our pressure valve is around residential loans. And, you know, we can always turn that knob off a little bit and bring in more residential loans if we need to. We've got a lot of runway ahead of us to be anywhere close to what a traditional bank would have in terms of a percentage of residential loans to total loans.
spk04: Okay, that's helpful. I'll step back.
spk00: Your next question comes from Chris McGrady with KBW. Your line is open.
spk02: Hey, good morning. Thanks for the question.
spk03: Dale, the 40% BOGI that you're talking about, or efficiency ratio, I'm interested in kind of the details on that. You know, looking at this year's results, expense growth was quite remarkably low, given the growth at 4%. Are you kind of telegraphing that expenses are going to reaccelerate a bit next year, or... You know, is there more of a revenue component? I'm just trying to get a sense of that 40% line in the sand. Well, I'm certainly optimistic about revenues. I think they're going to be strong. I think we're going to have, you know, strong long growth again, as we discussed a minute ago. You know, perhaps more deployment into securities. That'll pick up yield from what's in cash right now. But the expense side, there is going to be some catch-up elements. So just a couple of things that held back 2020 expenses. Our travel expenses were down by more than two-thirds. We think there's a benefit to actually getting on the road, meeting with clients. And because we get past this, I think that's going to pick up maybe in the second, third quarter, probably no later than that. There's other costs related to that. We didn't have our management conference this year. That's something that will come into play in 2021. So there's costs related to the pandemic that were suppressed in 2020. We also have, you know, investments that we continue to need to make, you know, in risk management and IT infrastructure. We expect to continue to do that. Those were maybe put on a slower path of growth for 2020, and we expect those are probably going to reaccelerate to some degree. So, yes, I do think our numbers are going to be, it's going to be going up a four instead of a three. It's going to be a low 40s. Certainly, and the revenue is going to be right there with it. So we're going to be seeing significant increase in earnings per share. Revenue growth in dollars will be more than double, certainly, of what we're doing in terms of expense growth in dollars. Chris, I just want to add, we're sitting at $36.5 billion now of total assets. And when we hit 50 or as we hit 50, our risk management practices have to continue to evolve. So we need to start spending money today. Our growth rate has been far, greater than I think we even thought. And so we need to hire some folks to maintain that growth rate on the operational side as well. And as Dale said, it's artificially depressed at 38%. That's just not a sustainable level to continue to invest in the infrastructure and technology needed to grow. And of course, there's always some new business development in terms of new business lines that we like that are always embedded in that line as well so uh again we've got the revenue coverage to exceed the expense growth and uh and next year you know you can look for us to be back uh in the low 40s okay and if i could just one more on the margin Just want to make sure I got the messaging. So if we look through the deposit and liquidity bill, like a lot of your peers are experiencing, that's going to put pressure. And then you talked about the loan fees. Is the right way to think about just core margin excluding PPP? I think modest pressure or did you? I can't remember if you said stability. I think I heard two different things. So, yeah, excluding Triple P, I think there's modest pressure because I think, you know, even in the fourth quarter, we've had loan mix into these lower risk and hence lower yielding categories. So that's put a little pressure on it. The loan fees that we had in the fourth quarter excluding away from Triple P were a little bit elevated from some, you know, some payoffs that we had and it's going to have a little payoff early. You know, all the loan fees that have been deferred are brought back in. And so that added a little bit to the fourth quarter number as well, which I don't necessarily anticipate continuing. So I'm not going to call that a big number, but it's got to have a little, you know, a little pressure in terms of the number itself. Again, what we're focused on is net interest income and PPNR growth. I mean, you know, hey, we could have, you know, pushed away some of this deposit growth that we had in the fourth quarter. But, you know, because it would have, again, that obviously, you know, damages our NIMS. We think that's a good problem to have. I'd like to be able to take those dollars. I know there's liquidity abundance within the industry today. Our view is that isn't always going to be the case. And we want to be able to have the resources, have the inventory that we can lend out and sustain a superior growth trajectory over our peers. Chris, I just want to give you an incremental perspective. Everyone talks about NIM and then sort of divorce sometimes from our credit quality. And I think what's important to know is is that we've got a number of business lines, capital call, warehouse lending, note financing, MSR lending, residential loans, resort financing, muni, and nonprofit. When you look at what our fourth quarter balances are, you add up the collective sum of those areas, we have $11.5 billion of balances that have never had a loss attached to them. Sorry, let me correct myself. They've had one loss of $400,000 several years ago, but basically have never had a loss attached to them. And that's 42% of our total loan base. So when you think about NIM, I think it's also important to think about risk-adjusted NIM. That's the way I think about it. That, yeah, NIM shrinks a little bit. That's okay in the sense that we're going to still be getting good, strong growth, which is going to go to Dale's net interest income comment. But also, we're not going to see an increase in provisioning based upon the growth in these subsectors that I just mentioned. Great. I appreciate all the color. It's one of the reasons why we only had $4 million of net losses this quarter.
spk02: Awesome. Thanks a lot.
spk00: Again, to ask a question, please press star and the number one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from Timber Resilier with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
spk03: Hi, good morning, everyone. Looking at the addition of Galton, just wondering what contribution was in the fourth quarter and in your comments about just maintaining warehouse balances as those new relationships come on how should we be thinking about just kind of building out those existing relationships not necessarily taking market share in in context with your with your flat guide for next year You know, it's kind of funny. As I was talking to the head of that area the other day, I said, hey, let's go. Let's review Galton in case I get a question about it. He assured me that there would be no question about Galton because it's not big enough. And I said, hey, everyone's going to be interested. So let me just tell you what's going on there. The integration's going well, all right? We had to sign up their existing customers onto our platform, and we had to go through that legal and formal process. The other thing we had to do was roll out our pre-qualified approach, which means we had to roll out a pricing engine and roll out a credit engine. And a lot of that's going to be fully completed by the end of the quarter as we go into Q2. So have we gotten some volume from Golden? Yes. Have we gotten the volume that we expect? No, not yet. We see the pipeline building. And I think it's going to have more of an impact in Q – it will have more of an impact in Q2 than it will have in Q1. And remember, they come with 100 different clients, and there's only a 30 percent – crossover or overlapping with our existing base. Okay, understood. Thank you. And then I'm not sure how easy this will be to answer, but Warren gained obviously very strong this quarter. I know they're kind of body when you look historically, but as you're looking at the strength you're seeing in the capital call line business and just in the tech ecosystem, generally speaking, is there a gauge for what the pipeline looks on some of the income from the equity investments, or is that still going to be up and down in every single quarter? It's going to be up and down. It's very hard for us to determine that. What I can tell you is with the increase in liquidity in the tech and innovation space, some of that's come for us in terms of loans have fallen, but the offsets of the loans falling are the fact that we're getting these equity gains. So we're happy that we always have it built into our loan docs. We don't get any equity gains around the capital call lines. And again, As I've said, very hard for us to forecast those gains. And from a lending standpoint in that business, obviously there's many new competitors that are also seeing great growth and success in that line. Is there enough for everybody, or are you starting to see some of the better credits and relationships get more competitive as more lenders step into the space? There's a little more competition because there are more competitors, but many of them like to go either into stage two, if you will, or stage one, early development, stage two. You have some maturity. Yeah, you see the revenues growing. The product has been proven or the service has been proven, but they're still spending a lot more money in marketing in order to drive up revenue and drive up their brand recognition, name recognition. And then stage three is they're getting ready to do some type of exit, either an IPO or some type of strategic sale. So some of the players that are in stage three don't really compete with us because we're not in stage three, and they're looking at it in terms of exit fees, and those would be the larger banks. We don't play there. Some of the banks play in the early stage, and that's not where we have our skill set. So we're in the middle stage, and, yes, there's a little more competition, but it's, you know, I would say we're not losing a lot of business, but we're going after it. We're winning that business, and we're winning it on service.
spk00: Thank you for the call again. Your next question comes from John Armstrong with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
spk01: Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. Morning. Hey, a couple quick questions. Can you just touch on the change in segment reporting? I know it's not a big deal, but kind of help us understand what's different and what changes and why you did that. And does reporting lines or anything else change?
spk03: Yeah, so, well, a couple things. So, you know, our segments were a bit unique relative to other institutions. And I think maybe and perhaps it conveyed – to some degree that we were, you know, an assimilation of commercial business lines put together. And I think that maybe did not appropriately convey that actually we have a lot of interdependencies among these enterprises, among these businesses that we focus on that we think have kind of superior growth and quality metrics. And so, you know, some of them are consumers of liquidity. Others are certainly providers of liquidity. And I think the new structure reflects that better, that it's more of a holistic enterprise in terms of what we're being able to accomplish with the business lines that we've selected out to have expertise in. The other, you know, another thing is if you look at where the industry is, this much more closely aligns with it. You know, we had almost the most number of segments of any institution out there. Now we're going to three. That's pretty much in line. And even I think J.P. Morgan has four or five. So I think it looks better like that. The other thing as well is we have consumer... you know, consumer-related segment. And I think historically, I think people have thought about us as really primarily just a commercial enterprise, but we do have a lot of consumer dependencies in our balance sheet in what we're doing. I think this highlights that better as well. It's how we're really managing the company and how we think about it. Yeah, more consumer-adjacent.
spk01: Yeah, okay. And this one other, I have a different question, but one other thing on that. What else is in consumer loan balances? I'm assuming mortgage is there, but what else would be captured in that?
spk03: So, yeah, mortgages are in there. You know, balances related to our HOA, balances related to our resort finance. Warehouse. Yeah, mortgage warehouse. Okay.
spk01: Okay, good. Tim, maybe one for you on reserves. I think I hear the message on you're probably set, and we're not going to see more reserve releases from here, but Can you talk a little bit about some of your economic forecasts, you know, when you cut it off and, you know, whether you expect to see some improvement over the next couple of quarters in some of the qualitative pieces of your reserve building?
spk03: Sure. Okay. So we look at reserves as kind of really the convergence of portfolio composition, our behaviors, and remediating. and what's happening in the economy. So with the economy, we've seen the prognosticators really come a lot closer together over the last quarter. So we talk about consensus, a consensus view, aligning generally to a consensus view. That's become easier to do as we've progress. We have a consensus outlook or we shape to align with the consensus outlook when we look at our reserves. Then we get into the composition of our portfolio and really separate into near-term and longer-term risk. And so the things in this economy right now that have been pressed with near-term risk, we just don't have that much of. The small business lending, the point of retail and restaurant, small business lending, it's not much that we do. And then when we look at our behaviors, we look at the stuff that is potentially undersecured, things that are cash flow dependent, And we started remediating that in February. So we brought that balance down from $126 million of what was substandard to $29 million at year end. So when we look at it, we look at it and say, what is going to be impacted? And then we test that against our LGD. The macro drivers are very favorable based on our portfolio composition. I want to take the chance to just go a little off your question, but drive it home back to the provisioning and really kind of talk about how we see next year for a moment. I'll wrap the provisioning. So Q4, we earned $1.93. As we think about going forward into 2021, if you take out the reversal of $34 million and you look towards the third quarter when we added about $15 million, and you normalize for that going forward and take it on an after-tax basis and then normalize for the increase in Triple T income for Q4, it gets you to about a $1.47 run rate, right? And if you do your $1.47 times four, that gets you to just a little under $5.90, right? And we kind of gave you that same math last quarter when we earned $1.36 and we annualized it and we got to $5.46. So that's how we're moving the business forward based upon that with a viewpoint that we will be increasing our provisions next year. But as Tim said, if the economic forecast improves or, as we said in our that the economic forecast improves or if we continue to grow, our growth is stronger in those low to no risk segments or loss segments, you could see that provision coming down and that would add to the EPS numbers I just mentioned. So I wanted to connect provision going forward to what we think is our baseline set of numbers as we come out of 2020 into 2021. So I hope that's a little more all of you guys and gives you a sense of where the company is going.
spk01: That's helpful. I mean, Ken, I'm stunned because those are the questions we dance around and try to not ask directly because we never get the answer. So that's very helpful.
spk03: Well, then I did a terrible job. I won't give you that answer again.
spk01: Appreciate it. Thanks for everything, guys. I appreciate it. Okay.
spk00: Your next question comes from Michael Young with Truist Securities. Your line is open.
spk03: Hey, thanks for taking the quick follow-up. Just big picture kind of question on the hotel franchise book, you know, given kind of what we've gone through. And, you know, I guess, you know, we're not quite on the back end of this yet, but it's looking like it may perform well. You've probably broadened your relationship, et cetera. Is this, you know, going to be a growth portfolio coming out of the pandemic? Or, you know, do you need to keep it out of a certain size of the institution, go forward, et cetera, et cetera? Just kind of updated thoughts. Well, it's not going to be growth gone wild in the hotel book. I'll say since the early part of 2020 when the pandemic took hold, we've only done five, maybe six hotel loans. Those hotel purchases were done by our borrowers away from us. They purchased more distressed properties. probably at discounted prices of up to 30%. And then we've structured it in such a way that our LTVs are no greater than 50%. So up to a 30% reduction, we've lowered our LTVs, and we've strengthened the terms and conditions, and we've continued to get the same prices. So if we see deals like that, those are very, very strong deals. And if they're either top primary MSA, primary, or I should say top MSAs in primary and secondary locations that we like, we'll continue to do that. But right now, the hotel sponsors and operators, they're waiting. They're a little cautious. And they haven't put their foot down. on the pedal yet. They want to see their volume come back before they extend themselves. And they're also waiting to see if they can pick up any distressed deals. We haven't sold any of our notes or anything like that. Our clients haven't sold any of their properties that we're financing as distressed. But so I guess I'm saying it's still a little hard for us to handicap, but we are financing properties when they meet the criteria of being bought at a discount and we can do it at a lower LTV. Oh, and I should also say, they're cutting out a lower LTV, and they're putting up a year's worth of operating reserves and a year's worth of principal and interest. So we're getting those programs way up front, and because of that, we like still doing the financing very strong in terms of other writing. Okay, that's helpful. I appreciate the updated thoughts.
spk00: Your next question comes from Tim Coffey with Jani. Your line is open.
spk02: Tim Coffey Thank you. Morning, Dylan. Tim, I wanted to follow up on the discussion about the Bridge Bank subsidiary because, you know, that company isn't a unique part of that ecosystem. The industry out there is booming right now. And so from a deposit growth standpoint, how much are you counting on that company or that business for deposit growth this next year?
spk03: Tim Coffey The tech and innovation side generates usually two and a half to three times loan growth. So, yes, first of all, we're counting on all our areas to generate both deposit and loan growth. No one gets through a budget process with us without getting their – working on their balance sheet. But, you know, last year – the tech and innovation did nearly $1.1 billion of deposit growth. And there was a lot of cash that was flushed into that business. I don't think we're going to see as much come in this year, so I wouldn't expect as much on the tech and innovation. But tech and innovation, like science, I expect for them to contribute in terms of next year's deposit growth. and also some of our new business initiatives should continue, deposit initiatives still continue to contribute. We had a great quarter in one of our new business initiatives this quarter.
spk02: And then my other question was on capital management. How are you looking at managing capital levels right now?
spk03: Well, you know, our growth is real strong, and so our capital generation is supporting our balance sheet growth. So that's the first and simplest answer. There's been a lot more deal conversation that we're seeing that has, you know, come across our desk. We're a little more interested in the deal conversation that is around possibly new products or new initiatives, new products for us, or new ditches that we could somehow enhance and grow. So we do see some of those opportunities. None of them have fit our model. So as I've said, the capital generation has been used to support our balance sheet growth.
spk02: Okay. All right. Great. Those are my questions. Thank you for your time.
spk03: Thank you.
spk00: There are no further questions. With this time, I'll turn the call back over to Ken for closing remarks.
spk03: Yeah. Thanks, everyone, for joining. We feel very good about the quarter we had and on to 2021. And we'll talk to you in 90 days again. Thank you all.
spk00: This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
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