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WEC Energy Group, Inc.
5/6/2025
presentation, this conference will be open to analysts for questions and answers. In conjunction with this call, a package of detailed financial information is posted at wecenergygroup.com. A replay will be available approximately two hours after the conclusion of this call. Before the conference call begins, please note that all statements in the presentation, other than historical facts, are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that are subject to change at any time. Such statements are based on management's expectations at the time they are made. In addition to the assumptions and other factors referred to in connection with the statements, factors described in WEC Energy Group's latest Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated. During the discussion, referenced earnings per share will be based on diluted earnings per share, unless otherwise noted. And now it is my pleasure to introduce Scott Lauber, President and Chief Executive Officer of WEC Energy Group. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today as we review our results for the first quarter of 2025. Here with me are Shaw Liu, our Chief Financial Officer, and Beth Schrocka, Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications and Investor Relations. As you saw from our news release this morning, we reported first quarter 2025 earnings of $2.27 a share. We're off to a solid start to the year. We remain laser focused on reliability, financial discipline, and customer satisfaction. and we're on track to deliver another year of strong results in line with our 2025 earnings guidance of $5.17 to $5.27 a share. This, of course, assumes normal weather going forward. We continue to target a 6.5% to 7% long-term compound annual growth rate supported by our robust capital plan driven by strong economic growth in our region. In Wisconsin, the unemployment rate stands at 3.2%, continuing a long-running trend below the national average. And as we've discussed, we're continuing to see significant economic development along the I-94 corridor between Milwaukee and Chicago. Microsoft is making good progress on its large data center complex in southeast Wisconsin. Work has continued in the first phase of the project, And we have confidence in our five-year forecast of 1.8 gigawatts of demand growth in southeastern Wisconsin. As you recall from last quarter, just to the north of Milwaukee, Cloverleaf has announced plans to develop approximately 1,700 acres for another large data center campus. Cloverleaf has projected at least one gigawatt of electric demand for this development. We have not incorporated any of this investment related to cloverleaf in our capital plan just yet. So stay tuned for the updated capital plan on our third quarter earnings call. And there is other notable growth in Wisconsin. As a reminder, Eli Lilly has announced a $3 billion expansion of its manufacturing facility in Wisconsin. And just recently Uline announced another expansion in Southeastern Wisconsin. The company plans to build a 1.2 million square foot warehouse and distribution facility. We're also off to a strong start on our current capital plan. It's the largest five-year investment plan in our history, totaling $28 billion dedicated to economic growth and reliability. As we've discussed, it's based on projects that are low risk and highly executable. On the tariff front, We're evaluating the impacts of tariffs on our supply chain and capital plan. For our $28 billion capital plan, we estimate the tariff exposure is approximately 2% to 3% overall. As you can expect, we are actively engaged to mitigate efforts and mitigation efforts through our contracts and various suppliers. Fortunately, we have diversity in our business mix, capital plan, and supply chain that should help to mitigate the overall effects on our customers. Our company has successfully navigated past periods of uncertainty and challenges, and you can certainly expect us to aim to do the same for this current environment. Now, let me give you a few updates on our projects. In early March, the Darien Solar project went into service. This adds 225 megawatts of renewable generation to our regulated portfolio with an investment of approximately $427 million. And currently we have two solar projects in construction phase, Kashkanon, a 300 megawatt project in southern Wisconsin, and Renegade, a 100 megawatt project in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. We expect both of these projects to be placed into service next year. In addition, the Wisconsin Public Service Commission has approved our purchase of 90% of the High Noon solar and battery project for approximately $883 million. Construction is expected to be completed in 2027. Of course, we are closely monitoring the federal developments related to the Inflation Reduction Act, and we're actively seeking to safe harbor the projects in our capital plan. At WEC Infrastructure, we closed on the Harden III solar project in February. We invested approximately $406 million for 90% ownership of the project. which has a total capacity of 250 megawatts. As a reminder, this project fulfills our five-year plan investment at WEC infrastructure. Overall, we have a lot of confidence in our ability to execute on our capital plan. Now turning to the regulatory front. As a reminder, we currently have no active rate cases. In Wisconsin, at the end of March, we filed a new tariff proposal with the Public Service Commission to accommodate the economic growth we discussed. The proposed very large customer or VLC tariff would meet the needs of our very large load customers while protecting all of our other customers. Our proposal would apply to customers with 500 megawatts or more of forecasted new load. The customer commits to subscribing to a portion of one or more dedicated generation resources. The terms of the agreements are 20 years for wind and solar and the depreciable lights for natural gas and battery storage assets. As filed, the tariffs provide for a fixed return on equity of 10.48% and the equity ratio of 57%. In addition, there are several other charges these customers are responsible for. administrative charges, energy charges, transmission charges, and distribution charges. The proposed tariff is designed so that no cost to serve these very large customers would be subsidized by or shifted to other customers. We worked with these large customers in the design of the tariff, which included the financial parameters. We believe this tariff is a key component to help make Wisconsin a prime spot for data center investments. We expect the decision by the commission by the second quarter of next year. In Illinois, we received the Illinois Commerce Commission's decision on our safety modernization program in February. The commission lifted the pause on our work and directed People's Gas to focus on replacing all cast iron and ductile iron pipe That is a diameter under 36 inches by January 1st, 2035. The commission also directed its staff to appoint a safety monitor to provide oversight by July of this year. Like other capital projects, our investments in pipe replacement will be reviewed in future rate proceedings. Under this pipe replacement program, approximately 1,100 miles of older pipe Some dating back to the mid-1800s will need to be replaced. We are currently developing engineering plans to execute the order. We will factor the updated pipeline replacement program capital into our fall update. Next up, Shaw will provide more details on our financials.
Thank you, Scott. Our first quarter 2025 earnings of $2.27 per share reflects a 30 cent increase compared to the first quarter of 2024. Our earnings packet includes a comparison of first quarter results on page 12. I'll walk through the significant drivers. Starting with our utility operation, earnings were 28 cents higher versus the first quarter of 2024. Weather positively impacted quarter over quarter earnings by approximately 18 cents. Compared to normal conditions, we estimate that weather had a one cent positive impact in the first quarter of 2025 compared to a 17 cent negative impact in the first quarter of 2024. Recall that our 2024 winter was the warmest in Wisconsin history on record. Rate-based growth contributed $0.20 more to earnings. This was driven primarily by the Wisconsin rate review outcome that was effective on January 1, 2025. Tax and other items added another $0.04. These positive drivers were partially offset by a total of $0.14 from O&M expense, depreciation and amortization, and timing of fuel expense. Our day-to-day O&M for the year is still expected to grow eight to 10% when compared to actual O&M in 2024. As a reminder, this year over year growth is largely driven by a few factors. Our continued focus on commission approved vegetation management, new assets coming online and measures we took last year to offset the mild weather impact. And let me give you some color on our weather normal retail electric delivery, excluding the iron ore mine. Compared to last Q1 and adjusting for leap year, we saw 7 tenths of 1% growth this quarter, led by the large commercial and industrial class, which grew 2.3% in the quarter. This is right in line with our forecast. Remember, we expect our weather normal annual electric sales growth to reach 4.5 to 5% starting in 2027, and we're on track to reach that over the next couple of years. At American Transmission Company, earnings increased two cents compared to the first quarter of 24. One cent was related to continued capital investment. And the other penny is related to a modest gain from selling and interest in the past 15 transmission line in California in the first quarter of this year. Turning to our energy infrastructure segment, earnings increased 5 cents in the first quarter of 25 compared to the first quarter of 2024, largely from higher production tax credit. Remember, we completed our investment in the Maple Flats and Delilah solar projects in the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as the Hardin 3 solar project this February. Next, you'll see that earnings from the corporate and other segment decreased 3 cents. This was driven by higher interest expense, partially offset by favorable tax timing and other items. Finally, there was two cents of dilution primarily associated with our common equity issuances. We issued about $200 million in 2024 and about $140 million in Q1 this year. Including the Q1 issuances, as a reminder, we expect to raise a total of $700 to $800 million of common equity in 2025 via our ATM program, as well as the dividend reinvestment and employee benefit plans. This is a part of the $2.7 to $3.2 billion total common equity we expect to issue through 2029 to finance the capital investment. As we refresh our capital plan this fall, we continue to expect any incremental capital will be funded with 50% equity content. Finally, let me comment on earnings guidance. As Scott mentioned earlier, we are reaffirming our 2025 earnings guidance of $5.17 to $5.27 per share, assuming normal weather for the rest of the year. We're also reaffirming our long-term EPS pager of 6.5% to 7%. For the second quarter, we're expecting a range of 63 to 69 cents per share. This accounts for April weather and assumes normal weather for the rest of the quarter. With that, I'll turn it back to Scott.
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