10/30/2025

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

After the presentation, the conference will be open to analysts for questions and answers. In conjunction with this call, a package of detailed financial information is posted at wecenergygroup.com. A replay will be available approximately two hours after the conclusion of this call. Before the conference call begins, please note that all statements in the presentation, other than historical facts, are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that are subject to change at any time. Such statements are based on management's expectations at the time they are made. In addition to the assumptions and other factors referred to in connection with the statements, factors described in WEC Energy Group's latest Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated. During the discussions, referenced earnings per share will be based on diluted earnings per share unless otherwise noted. This call also will include non-GAAP financial information. The company has provided reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the materials posted on its website for this conference call. And now it's my pleasure to introduce Scott Lauber, President and Chief Executive Officer of WEC Energy Group. Please go ahead.

speaker
Scott Lauber
President and Chief Executive Officer

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today as we review our results for the third quarter of 2025. Here with me are Sha Lu, our Chief Financial Officer, and Bess Strache, Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications and Investor Relations. As you saw from our news release this morning, we reported third quarter 2025 earnings of 83 cents per share. With this solid quarter, we remain on track for strong 2025 results. Our focus on executing the fundamentals of the business is creating real value for our customers and stockholders. Today, we are reaffirming our earnings guidance for the year at a range of $5.17 to $5.27 a share. Of course, this assumes normal weather through the remainder of 2025. In addition, I'm excited to share our new five-year capital plan. Let's start by talking about the economic growth that's driving the plan. We continue to see major business building a future in our region. Overall, our electric demand is expected to grow 3.4 gigawatts between 2026 and 2030, an increase of 1.6 gigawatts compared to the prior plan. Microsoft is making good progress on its large data center complex in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin. The company has stated that the first phase of that project is on track to go online next year. In addition, Microsoft also recently announced plans for a second phase in Mount Pleasant that would be similar in size and power. Its projected investment is an incremental $4 billion on top of the original $3.3 billion investment. The economic development south of Milwaukee is supporting approximately 2.1 gigawatts of our overall 3.4 gigawatt demand growth. And as you recall, Vantage Data Centers has signed on to develop data center facilities on approximately 1,900 acres north of Milwaukee in Port Washington. Just last week, Vantage announced that this campus, named Lighthouse, will be part of OpenAI and Oracle's partnership on the Stargate expansion. Vantage has reported that the site has the potential to reach 3.5 gigawatts of demand over time. Right now, we're focused on providing generation for an estimated 1.3 gigawatts of demand at the site in the next five years. The City of Fort Washington approved Vantage's plans in August for the initial development on 670 acres. Vantage has stated that it expects to invest $15 billion in the project. The campus will feature four data centers and construction is planned to start this year. Vantage has announced that the facility could go online in late 2027 with this first phase of the project scheduled for completion in 2028. Of course, the growth from large customers is also fostering small commercial and residential development throughout our service territory. And Wisconsin's unemployment rate stands at 3.1%, continuing a long running trend below the national average. This significant economic development is driving our capital plan. As you may have seen from our announcement this morning, we expect to invest $36.5 billion in capital projects between 2026 and 2030, an increase of $8.5 billion above our previous five-year plan. That's more than a 30% increase. With this updated capital plan, we expect asset-based growth at an average rate of just over 11% a year. We expect that strong asset-based growth to support our updated long-term projected earnings per share growth of 7% to 8% a year on a compound annual basis between 2026 and 2030. This is based on the midpoint of our 2025 guidance. For the next few years, however, we expect to maintain our existing EPS growth rate of 6.5% to 7% on the compound basis And then accelerate starting in 2028 to the upper half of the new guidance range on a compound basis. As you are well aware, we're in the early stages of deploying the capital required to support the robust growth in our region. And it takes time to fully put the projects in service. The increase in our plan is driven by investments in regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution in Wisconsin. and the Pipe Retirement Program in Illinois. Let me give you a few more details. Over the next five years, we'll utilize an all of the above approach for generation to support the economic growth and reliability by investing in new natural gas, batteries, and renewables. The key for reliability is dispatchable resources. Between 2026 and 2030, we expect to invest in incremental $3.4 billion in modern, efficient natural gas generation versus the prior plan. This includes combustion turbines, reciprocating internal combustion engines or race units, and upgrades to existing facilities. We also will continue to invest in renewable generation and battery storage, increasing our projected investment by $2.5 billion over our prior plan. In addition, American Transmission Company plans to continue to invest in our transmission capabilities to serve our region's economic growth, connect new generation, and strengthen the system. Part of that new transmission is planned to serve customers and new data center needs. Our plan calls for us to invest approximately $4.1 billion in ATC projects between 2026 and 2030. This represents a $900 million increase from the previous plan. And to help assure reliability and support economic growth, we're continuing to invest in our electric and natural gas distribution networks with an additional $2 billion in the plan. This includes significant investment in our pipe retirement program in Chicago. Recall that the Illinois Commerce Commission directed us to review to direct us to focus on retiring all cast iron and ductile iron pipe with a diameter under 36 inches by January 1st, 2035. We expect that over a thousand miles of older pipe will need to be replaced. Turning to the regulatory front, I have just a few updates across our service areas. In Wisconsin, our proposed very large or BLC tariff remains with the Public Service Commission for review. As we discussed earlier this year, this tariff is designed to meet the needs of our very large customers while protecting all of our other customers and investors. As currently proposed and in our testimony filed earlier this month, the tariff would provide for a fixed return on equity in an updated range of 10.48 to 10.98% and an equity ratio of 57%. These financial terms have been agreed upon with the customers. The proposed terms of the agreements are 20 years for wind and solar and the depreciable lies for natural gas and battery storage assets. We worked with our very large customer in designing the tariff, including the financial parameters, and we believe the tariff is a key component to making Wisconsin a prime spot for data center investment. We have a procedural schedule and provided our direct testimony earlier this month A commission order is expected by early May of next year for customers to take service in June. And in Illinois, we are continuing to coordinate with the City of Chicago on our pipe retirement program. As we are ramping up these efforts, we will continue to have regulatory reviews of the process. This includes the forecast and the general rate case proceeding, which we are planning to file in early 2026 for test year 2027. Of course, we'll keep you updated on any further developments. Now I'll turn it to Shaw to provide you more details on the financial results and our financial plans.

speaker
Sha Lu
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Scott. Our third quarter 2025 earnings were 83 cents per share, one penny over third quarter 2024 adjusted earnings. Our earnings package includes a comparison of third quarter results on page 16. I'll walk through the significant drivers. Starting with our utility operation, earnings were 12 cents higher when compared to third quarter 24 adjusted earnings. Weather positively impacted earnings by about a penny relative to last year. Compared to normal conditions, we estimate that weather had a 3 cent favorable impact in the third quarter of 2025 compared to a $0.02 favorable impact in 2024. Rate-based growth contributed $0.15 more to earnings. And timing of fuel expense, tax and other items added another $0.07. These positive drivers were partially offset by $0.06 from higher depreciation and amortization expense and $0.05 from higher day-to-day O&M. In terms of our weather normal retail electric deliveries, excluding the iron ore mine, we saw a 1.8% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024. This was led by the large commercial and industrial segment, which grew 2.9%. The residential and small commercial and industrial segments grew 1.3% and 1.4% respectively. Overall, we're slightly ahead of our annual electric sales growth forecast. Looking ahead with the updated load growth, we now expect our annual electric sales growth to be between 6 and 7% for the period 2028 through 2030. That's up from the 4.5 to 5% we previously forecasted. Turning to American Transmission Company, capital investment growth contributed an incremental two cents to Q3 earnings versus 2024. And at our energy infrastructure segment, earnings increased a penny in the third quarter of 25 from higher production tax credits. Next, you'll see that earnings from the corporate and other segments decreased 11 cents. This was largely driven by tax timing and higher interest expense. In terms of common equity, we issued about $800 million through the first nine months via our ATM program, as well as the dividend reinvestment and employee benefit plans. This largely satisfied our common equity needs for this year. As Scott noted, we're reaffirming our 2025 earnings guidance of $5.17 to $5.27 per share. This includes October weather and assumes normal weather for the remainder of the year. Going forward with the updated capital plan, we expect our EPS growth to accelerate post-2027. Overall, based off the midpoint of the 25 guidance range, our long-term growth rate CAGR is expected to be 7% to 8% through 2030. Now, let me comment on the financing plan that supports this growth and the new capital plan. As we have consistently guided you, we expect any incremental capital will be funded with 50% equity content. When compared to the prior plan, We added $8.5 billion of capital and about $4 billion of incremental equity content, equally split between incremental common equity and hybrid or like-kind securities. So here are the details of the funding sources. Over the next five years, we expect cash from operations to be approximately $21 billion, funding more than half of our cash needs. Approximately $14 billion of the funding is expected to come from incremental debt, and the remaining cash is expected to be funded by approximately $5 billion of common equity. As a reminder, the cadence of common equity is a function of capital expenditures. For 2026, we expect common equity issuances to be between 900 million to $1.1 billion. In closing, as Scott discussed previously, the strong economic development and load growth in Wisconsin is the foundation of our new five-year plan. With the asset base forecasted to grow at 11.3% a year on average, we expect to nearly double our asset base over the next five years. It's important to note that the bespoke assets allocated to our very large customers are projected to represent 14% of our total asset base by 2030. As a reminder, the tariff is designed so these customers pay their fair share and are not being subsidized by other customers. We're very excited about our company's future and the investment opportunities ahead of us. With that, I'll turn it back to Scott.

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