West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd Common stock

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the West Fraser Q3 2023 results conference call. Please note that all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press the star followed by the 2. During this conference call, Wes Fraser's representative will be making certain statements about Wes Fraser's future financial and operational performance, business outlook, and capital plans. These statements may constitute forward-looking information or forward-looking statements within the meaning of Canadian and United States securities laws. Such statements involve certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions which may cause West Fraser's actual or future results and performance to be materially different from those expressed or implied in these statements. Additional information about these risk factors and assumptions is included both in the accompanying webcast presentation and in our 2023 Annual MD&A and Annual Information Form, which can be accessed on West Fraser's website or through CEDAR Plus for Canadian investors and EDGAR for United States investors. Thank you. Mr. Ferris, you may begin your conference.

Well, thank you, operator. And good morning and thank you for everyone joining our third quarter earnings call. My name is Ray Ferris, President and Chief Executive Officer of West Fraser. And joining me today is Sean McLaren, our Chief Operating Officer, who we previously announced will be assuming the role of President and CEO effective January the 1st, 2024. and Christopher Rostick, our Chief Financial Officer, as well as Matt Tobin, our VP of Sales and Marketing, and several other members of our leadership team. This quarter, I am very pleased to inform you that Sean McLaren and I and Matt are joining the call from our OSB mill in Chambord, Quebec. As I am sure you are aware, our West Fraser team has been particularly busy this past period. with the recently announced divestitures of three of our pulp mills and the acquisition of a sawmill and wood treatment operation and associated forest management agreements in Alberta. All of these moves are aligned with our long-term strategy to be a premier, low-cost, sustainable and renewable wood building products producer and key supplier to our customers. Our team has been successfully processing and executing on these announced changes all the while, navigating uncertain, sometimes conflicting, difficult-to-predict demand fluctuations within the very product and geographic regions we serve. Before I hand the call to Christopher Austick to discuss our third quarter financials further, I'd like to reinforce how thankful and grateful we are for the team at West Fraser for continually adapting to meet the needs of our growing company. in particular to our employees within our pulp team, of which no organization could ask for more. The dedication and hard work of this is shared and appreciated by all of our nearly 11,000 employees. As we will discuss on this call, despite persistently varied and mixed demand markets, we've posted strong improvement EBITDA over the prior quarter. And as we'll talk further, we'll also have Sean available to answer questions later in your call as well. But for now, let me hand it back to Chris, who will walk us through our Q3 financial results.

Thank you, Ray, and good morning, everyone. And just as a reminder, we report in U.S. dollars, and all the references today in our comments will be the U.S. dollars, unless specified otherwise. Wes Fraser generated $325 million of consolidated adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter, improving from the $80 million of adjusted EBITDA reported in the second quarter. Our North American EWP segment generated $289 million of adjusted EBITDA, up from $126 million in the prior quarter. The price strength carried over from the prior quarter. The lumber segment posted $44 million of adjusted EBITDA this quarter, up from $10 million in the prior quarter, with this quarter negatively impacted by production curtailments for capital projects, as well as extreme weather in parts of Florida and Georgia. The majority of the sequential improvement this quarter was driven by a $62 million export duty recovery. In the prior quarter, we benefited from favorable changes related to inventory valuation adjustments, although these adjustments were not a significant part of the Q3 results in lumber. The net result was a $35 million negative impact relative to the second quarter on a sequential basis. The pulp and paper segment improved, but profitability remains challenging in the third quarter, posting negative 12 million of adjusted EBITDA versus negative 74 million in the prior quarter. As a reminder, last quarter was marked by considerable disruption within the pulp segment, with all four of our pulp mills taking downtime. In Europe, adjusted EBITDA was $4 million in the third quarter, as the demand weakness that had begun to unfold late in the second quarter persisted. These three Q3 results were down from $19 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter. In summary, price strength across our North American EWP business was the largest positive driver of the company's sequential EBITDA improvements. which more than offset demand challenges in our lumber, pulp and EU segments. Cash flow from operations was $355 million this quarter, and cash net of debt increased to $663 million from $449 million last quarter. This quarter's cash flow more than covered $25 million of dividends paid and $115 million for capital expenditures. We also repurchased $25 million of shares in the third quarter, and a further $53 million between quarter end and October 24th. In terms of our operational outlook for 2023, we are reiterating guidance for North American OSB and SPF lumber shipments, but reducing guidance for SYP shipments as market demand for lumber in the U.S. South has begun to cool. We therefore now expect our SYP shipments to be at the bottom end of the guidance range of 2.9 to 3.1 billion board feet. Also, given the weakening trend in European OSB demand, we now expect OSB shipments there to be near the low end of the guidance range of 1 to 1.2 billion board feet on a three-eighths inch basis. In terms of capital spending for 2023, based on equipment delivery schedules and spending levels to date, we now anticipate capital investment will be approximately $450 million. down from last quarter's expectation that we would spend near the bottom end of our $500 million to $600 million guidance range. Looking back over the last four quarters, which have undoubtedly been challenging for the wood products industry, our diversified portfolio of assets has generated consolidated EBITDA of $472 million, excluding the $62 million export duty recovery this quarter. And this trailing 12-month EBITDA would have been markedly higher on a pro forma basis after giving effect to the pending sale of the three pulp mills and the pending acquisition of spray-like sawmills. For comparison, this latest level of trough-like EBITDA is significantly higher than the financial results generated in similarly weak markets experienced in 2019, which reflects the success of the Norboard acquisition and integration, as well as the other mill additions and capital improvements we have made to the West Fraser portfolio in recent years. With that overview, I'll now pass the call back to Ray.

Thank you, Chris. Before I kind of further reflect on our financial performance in the third quarter, I'll just spend a couple of moments addressing some of the corporate development initiatives we've undertaken recently, as Chris has mentioned, namely the sales of the pulp mills as well as the acquisition of the sawmill in Alberta. In early July, we announced the planned sale of our Hinton, Alberta pulp mill to a key strategic partner, Maundy Group PLC, which we addressed on our last earnings call. So I won't spend much time on that transaction other than to say that we now expect the transaction to close early in 2024. Since the Hinton announcement, we also announced the planned sale of our two BCTMP mills, namely the Slave Lake pulp mill in Alberta and the Cornell River pulp mill in British Columbia to Atlas Holdings for 120 million U.S. dollars. Upon closing of this transaction, which is expected in early 2024, these two mills are to be operated by Miller Western Forest Products, a 100-year-old Canadian forest price company that joined Atlas Holdings in 2017. We believe this transaction will provide these great pulp mill assets and teams with a strong strategic future while also allowing West Fraser to focus its resources on our objective of being a premier wood building products company. This quarter, we also announced the planned $140 million Canadian acquisition of Spray Lake Sawmills located in Cochrane, Alberta. This transaction includes not just a sawmill and wood treatment facility, which produces a varied value-added treated wood products, as well as a variety of innovative wood residuals and other byproducts. This acquisition also comes with two forest management agreements with a total annual elbow cut of approximately 500,000 cubic meters. With the current expected transaction to close by year end, this will enable West Fraser to grow its footprint in southern Alberta, and expand its Canadian treated wood business while providing access to a high-quality fiber supply, which is synergistic with our existing sawmill and treating facilities in Sundry, Alberta. We believe, over the long term, that these three transactions are a continuation of our ongoing strategy of always looking to improve our earnings quality through the cycle for the regions and products we serve. Now shifting thoughts back to Q3. This quarter, we continue to experience relatively soft demand, particularly in our lumber segment, as consumers manage through a period of elevated mortgage and interest rates, which appear to be impacting affordability and overall consumption. Market weakness was also evident in our European operations, where high inflation and mortgage rates are dampening housing and home improvement markets. Contrast these trends, however, with our North American engineered wood panels business, where we experienced more solid demand through much of the quarter before showing signs of slowing towards the end of the quarter, particularly for our OSB products. With respect to outlook, we expect the wood building products industry will continue to face near-term challenges from factors including interest rates that may remain higher for longer, ongoing labor constraints, and the potential for muted product demand primarily due to housing affordability headwinds. In recent quarters, we have seen inflationary cost pressures moderate across much of our supply chain, including for raw materials such as energy, resins, and chemicals, and to some extent, wood fiber. And though difficult to predict, we do expect some upward cost pressure in Q4, particularly for energy-related inputs. In terms of new home construction and repair and remodeling markets, while we do see demand risks in the near term, we continue to believe the North American housing market is structurally underbuilt and has an aging housing stock, which over the mid to longer term should and will support a favorable demand potential for our building products. In closing, while near-term uncertainties exist across the industry and our business, we are confident in the geographic and product diversity we have built. and in our operating and growth strategies. Our company has a long and successful track record of steadily and progressively evolving to meet the needs of our employees, our communities, and of course, our shareholders, including more recently with the acquisitions of Norboard, the modern Angelina sawmill, the large-scale Allendale OSB mill, that's currently in startup, and our recent balance sheet remains strong and well positioned for the future. This team has been through economic and industry cycles before, and we continue to believe we have the people, the assets, and financial flexibility to allow us to take advantage of opportunities and overcome challenges when they arise. And although it is unclear when market cycles will turn, we will remain disciplined in our capital allocation strategy, investing in and improving our assets through the cycle. As we look ahead, we will continue to focus on being a low-cost, efficient supplier of renewable and sustainable wood-billing products while we remain committed to our prudent capital allocation strategy and to a future where good fundamentals support growth in demand for the types of sustainable and renewable wood products for which West Fraser is known. Finally, Before I turn the call over for Q&A, I thought I would mention a few things about the transition to Sean as President and CEO at year end. Sean and I have worked very closely together for almost 20 years, both growing together with the company. Sean originally joined with Wellwood Canada, based in Vancouver, but has lived and worked across the company from Burns Lake, British Columbia, to Hinton, Alberta, both in pulp and lumber, to Sundry, Alberta, to Rocky Mountain House laminated veneer lumber, to Cornell pulp and lumber operations, including two different stints, one in Savannah, Georgia, and, of course, the last number of years based in our Memphis office in Tennessee. Sean has been a key driver and a leader across multiple business segments, and regions, often moving seamlessly between finance and operations roles. We are so fortunate to have such a strong, knowledgeable, and natural people leader in our company, which will support a seamless and efficient transition for all of us here at West Fraser. And for me, I'm very thankful for that.

With that, we'll turn the call back to the operator for questions.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session.

If you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touchtone phone. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request. Questions will be taken in the order received. Should you wish to cancel your request, please press the star followed by the two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any case. Once again, that is star one should you wish to ask a question. And your first question is from Hamir Patel from CIBC. Please ask your question.

Hi. Good morning. Ray, I saw the Henderson startup looks like it's pushed out to two quarters. Can you speak to some of the other projects that you might have over the next couple of years? I know you did Opelika and Henderson, but I'm assuming there's some other ones that are to follow and what sort of – you know, scale we could expect in terms of production growth.

Well, good morning, Hamir, and good question. And I'll maybe get Sean to tap in on the end of this one. But before I do that, I think one point I want to make on Henderson is, I mean, we're, and all of our capital, it is what I would call full steam ahead. The only thing that slows us down today is really supply chain issues. Um, and, uh, and look, we, um, and so that's the only reason for the, uh, the slight delay. And, uh, we're, we're, uh, we're pretty excited about, um, getting through and seeing that mill start up, you know, with respect to, you know, I'm, I'm not sure exactly what we've given in guidance. You know, what I would say is, you know, we, you know, we're continuing to make progress on our, on, on, uh, significant progress on our, on our platform, U.S. lumber platform. But we still do have a few more what I would call excellent projects that we have in the queue. I don't think we've given a lot of detail on that, but I kind of look at these are ones that we're going to be very excited to announce them and bring them forward when that time is right and looking forward to having those conversations. When we think about our future in the U.S. South, it's one where we see much opportunity to improve what we have, both by lowering costs and by growing our footprint. But Sean, anything you want to add to that?

No, I think that is perfect, Ray. I mean, we continue to have a number of projects, merchandisers, canner lines, different things that are smaller in nature than a Henderson, but really kind of move our cost curve and our competitive position in the US out. So a number of those are in motion, and I'm very pleased with the progress on them.

Great. Thanks, Ray and Sean. Sean, another question I had for you is with the pending sale of most of the pulp and paper assets, do you expect future M&A to be focused on the remaining lumber and OSB businesses, or do you see some adjacent categories in wood products that might interest the company to grow into either organically or via M&A?

You know, good morning, Hamir. From an M&A perspective, I think you can look at what we've done over the last several years, you know, that make us stronger. The bar is quite high for us in West Fraser in terms of we look at a lot of things, but in terms of things that that we know will fit into our existing footprint and make us immediately stronger. Our biggest opportunity is modernizing what we have internally, so I think we'll continue on that path. If it's synergistic to our existing business in wood products, we'd look at it. If it's a strong addition to the company, we'd continue to discuss it internally.

One thing I'd add on to that, Amir, is that built into the DNA of the company is I think every day we sit down and talk about what we need to do. And things that we may not have considered yesterday, we might be able to consider going forward as the company continues to change. So I think it's an ongoing conversation. And as the world changes, I'm sure we're going to continue to look at all things that are out there and figuring out where to take the company.

Okay, fair enough. Thanks. That's all I had. And Ray, all the best in retirement.

Thanks.

Thank you, Amir. Thank you.

Once again, please press Store 1 should you wish to ask a question. And your next question is from Sean Stewart from TD Securities. Please ask your question.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. A couple questions. and ray or sean i want to just follow up on the the capex question with respect to supply chain lag and and longer lead times for equipment i guess i would have expected that with weaker markets there might have been a little more slack in in that element potentially some of your competitors slowing their discretionary spending plans because markets have weakened Is there any particular part of the supply chain, particular pieces of equipment where you're seeing these lags intensify? Just any more detail you can give us on that front.

Well, good morning, Sean, and I'll take a crack at it first here. Look, I mean, I think it, I guess we'll see what happens over the next few years here, but But I would say, you know, there was so much stuff in the pipeline that I think as we look out, you can see that things are improving and easing. But, you know, the things that were in the pipeline were still in the pipeline. So, you know, I think there are certain segments and parts that where you can see equipment and things coming quicker and others, which quite frankly haven't changed at all yet, but they may down the road. But look, the one thing that hasn't changed is access to people and what I call contractors and people that can actually build a project. So labor is still the primary constraint, assuming you've overcome your equipment part.

Good morning, Sean. Not a lot to add to that. I really think the Henderson and some of the delays we've experienced have been due to the backlog, and that is getting better. So I think on future projects, it might be a bit faster, but there's still a backlog out there.

Okay. Thanks for the extra detail there. Question on your European EWP business. Weakest margins we've seen there for a while, which I suppose isn't entirely surprising given the macroeconomic backdrop. Can you give us a sense of, given that it's a less transparent market, ongoing pressure you're seeing into the fourth quarter and maybe early next year. And it sounds like you're curtailing your shipment guidance a little bit for that business. Do you have a sense of any incremental downtime that's being taken elsewhere given, um, skinny margins for that business at this point?

Um, well, Sean, look, I, um, no, don't really have anything on respect to, um, other curtailments or what, but I think if you look at the trends over the last year, the economy certainly has continued to slow steadily throughout the last year and it remains weak at the moment. I think our visibility into next year is probably the same as yours. And I think we're just really focused. What I would say is we're really quite pleased with how our operations are performing over in Europe, really operating to meet available customer demand. So I would say in a very difficult demand market, I think we're we're pretty happy with the way we're kind of, so it gives us quite a bit of confidence that even that thing slowed down a little bit more, that our team has figured out how to kind of weather that storm, if you will, if that's the right way to put that. But I guess we'll see, but I do think it, you know, our outlook is, you know, it's, you know, probably much more, a little bit slower going forward, at least in the short term.

Okay.

All right, thanks very much for the detail. Congrats to both Sean and Ray on the transition. We look forward to seeing what comes of it going forward.

Thank you, Sean.

Thank you, Sean. Thank you. Your next question is from Keetan Mumtora from BMO Capital Markets. Please ask your question.

Hello, Keaton. Your line is now open. It seems that Keaton has disconnected.

We'll just take the next question. It's from Paul Quinn from RBC Capital Markets. Please ask your question.

Yeah, thanks very much. Good morning, guys. Let's just start with Allendale. I know you started that mill up in June. What's the run rate at the end of the Q3, or how do you see that mill progressing, and what is it qualified to sell?

Well, good morning, Paul.

Yeah, good morning, Paul. So, look, we're quite pleased with the startup so far, as you might imagine. understand it's pretty early in, in, in, in, uh, pretty early in the, in the ramp up curve, which, you know, I think we've said, uh, kind of two or three years. Um, uh, I don't know if we've given what the actual guidance was for this year. And so, but, but I would say, you know, if historically you look back and you look at the OSB ramp up curves, we're, you know, we're, we're very close or on plane with where we want to be and happy with the startup so far, actually. And, uh, But I think what we've said is it wouldn't be significant this year, and I guess I don't mean to be flippant, but I guess perhaps stay tuned to see how well that goes next year.

Okay, and then just noticing that you've got now almost $825 million U.S. on deposit. Hearing from some of your competitors that there's been some chatter on that file, the on the current situation and how do we get to a resolution?

Well, I would say it remains certainly a frustration for the industry and for West Fraser. Obviously, we're on both sides of the border. We certainly do not agree with the duties and I think that's well documented. You know, Paul, look, you will see chatter in the paper from time to time with industry trying to work together to develop some thoughts about how to overcome the impasse. But I can also say there really isn't anything going on other than You know, people talking about what could be done or what might be done should things improve, but today the governments aren't talking and there's really no discussion between the U.S. and Canada. But look, we continue to want to see resolution to the duties and we're going to look for those catalysts to try and do that for what impact West Fraser has on those decisions.

Okay, and just in the past, you know, that sort of the legal route, whether it was through NAFTA or WTO, used to really sort of spurn on those discussions. Where are we at in those two legal paths?

First, Paul, I would say I'm quite involved, and I can actually tell you that as involved as I am, I'm confused about If I tried to describe the legal status of all the different things that were going on between CBD and anti-dumping, I'm sure I would get it wrong. I think it's out there in the public domain, and so I just don't want to try and trip something up. I think you saw that there was a couple of recent announcements around decisions being remanded back to the Department of Commerce, but again, those immediately go on appeal, and away we go again. I would say despite the fact that you'll see and read things in the media and there are some decisions being made, I don't think from a Wes Frazier point of view it's fundamentally changed materially where we're at. This hasn't moved us closer to a resolution at this standpoint. So from our perspective, it looks like this is a ways away before resolutions.

Okay. And then just lastly, I mean, I've been covering the company for 20 years and it seems, you know, when I first started, Westridge had a pretty decent gap on competitors. It seems to be eroded over time. And just wondering, is that because the competitors have got a lot better or what do you attribute that? I mean, you used to have a little bit of blue sky between You know, you and others, and now it seems to be, you know, you're right there neck and neck with the top ones. What's the change?

Well, I'm not sure I 100% agree with that statement, Paul, but I will say I don't think anyone has grown more than West Fraser. We continue to operate in, you know, in our lumber side, three distinct areas, you know, British Columbia, Alberta, and the U.S. South. And these are the tale of three cities. And so, you know, I would say we're very happy in some areas and not so happy in others. And making the decisions with our portfolio and operating strategy to put ourselves in a position in the long term. And so those that, you know, don't have to spend a lot of time in the more difficult areas, it's, you know... you know, that can be helpful. But I really do, I think we, not me, but we very much think we have the right, you know, asset mix and are growing in the regions that we want to grow in and shrinking in the regions that we think we need to. And so it's a long race. I guess we'll see where we get to.

All right. Hey, congratulations on the retirement rate.

Best of luck, Sean. Thanks, Paul.

Thank you, Paul.

Thank you.

Once again, ladies and gentlemen, please press star one should you wish to ask a question. The next one is from Keetan Mamtoora from BMO Capital Markets. Please ask your question.

Okay, let's try this again. Can you hear me?

Can you hear me, Keetan? Can you hear me okay? We can hear you, Keetan.

Okay, perfect. Sorry about that earlier. Hey, Chris, maybe to start with, can you give us some sense of how you are thinking about CapEx for 2024. It certainly sounds like there is some, you know, carrying forward from 2023, particularly in this environment where there's still quite a lot of uncertainty, you know, perhaps, you know, maybe even at a high level, that would be helpful.

Sure. So, you know, I think when we consider kind of what's happened the last couple of years is we've had fairly ambitious capital plans. And we've been, in particular, in the last couple of years, a bit frustrated by the delays that have happened from a supply chain standpoint and have had spillover into the following year in that case in the last couple of years. And it looks like 2023 to 2024 is not going to be any different in that front. In terms of the philosophy and how we're thinking about CapEx kind of relative to the market is we were quite careful through 21 and 22 to preserve liquidity to make sure that our allocation strategy could be durable, you know, agnostic to market cycles. And so, you know, we've got some great opportunities to invest capital as Sean and Ray indicated that continues to take action in the portfolio where it makes sense to improve the asset quality over time. And frankly, some of the best time to do that is in a weak market, because the market will recover at some point in time. And we'd rather spend the capital now and make the improvements now. And that's across everything. It's not just about capacity. It's grade, it's recovery, it's cost, all those elements. And to do that work now in a softer market, when there's room to do it from a supply-demand standpoint. And then when the market recovers, we're ready to meet our customers' demands and produce what they're looking for and the quantities they're looking for at that time. So I think with where we position the balance sheet, we're not contemplating major cuts to CapEx here over the next 12 months, and we do still have a lot of projects in flight that are spilling over. So I'd welcome Ray or Sean to kind of add to that if they've got other thoughts on that.

No, nothing to add, Chris.

Okay, so Chris, would it be then fair to say that 2024 CapEx should be actually similar to 2023, if not higher? Is that directionally the right way to think about it?

Yeah, we'll release our CapEx guidance when we put our year-end financials out, just as we put our shipment guidance for next year out at that same point in time. And so that's when we'll be providing CapEx for the next year. But we started with a range of 500 to 600 this year, and We're saying that there's probably 50 to 100 that's going to spill over into next year as carryover on top of maintenance and the other stuff that we wouldn't ordinarily do next year.

Got it. No, that's fair. Maybe then shifting to capital allocation, obviously, balance sheet is in a very strong position. You've got a lot of – it's putting on quite a bit of net cash. You know, can you talk about one sort of how is your M&A pipeline looking at this point? Have seller expectations moderated given what we've seen so far this year? And then on the other side, you know, how you think about sort of appetite for kind of, you know, larger share repurchases? Thank you.

I can start there, and then if Ray wants to jump in, I can as well. On the M&A front, there's been a number of active years. I think participants in the industry understand that there's cycles here, and valuations don't really sort of wildly adjust whether you're in a soft market or a frothy market here. It's really about asset quality, which has been of interest particular importance to us in the last few years when you look at our strategy around how we've deployed capital. So there's always stuff happening. For us, as Ray said earlier, we're going to be quite selective around the opportunities that we action because they need to be high quality opportunities. And we believe we're positioned with the balance sheet that if those opportunities are there, we're well positioned to take advantage of those high quality opportunities. On the share buybacks, there's lots of things that impact that decision process, including our view on the macro environment. We're not going to commit to where and when and how many on a call like this, but we can say when it's at a discount to intrinsic, when the balance sheet is where we want it to be, and when our other priority uses of cash are met. we have that opportunity to return capital through the buybacks and our track record shows that we do that. So I think that's about all that we would say on share buybacks.

That's fair. I appreciate the prompt.

I'll turn it over. Thank you.

Thank you. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, please press star one should you wish to ask a question.

There are no further questions at this time.

Please proceed.

Well, thank you, everyone, and thanks. And as always, Chris, Robert, you know, Sean and I are available to respond. Thank you for your participation, and like you, I'll look forward to turning into the next quarter and hearing the update.

Thank you. Bye now.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now ended. Thank you all for joining. You may all disconnect.