Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.

Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call

8/5/2021

spk00: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Advanced Drainage Systems First Quarter Physical Year 2022 Financial Earnings Results Conference Call. My name is Tiffany, and I am your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, please press star 1 on your telephone. I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Mr. Mike Higgins, Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
spk03: Good morning. With me today, I have Scott Barber, our President and CEO, and Scott Cottrell, our CFO.
spk01: Actual results may differ materially from those forward-looking statements because of various factors, including those discussed in our press release and the risk factors identified in our Form 10-K filed at the SEC. While we may update forward-looking statements in the future, we disclaim any obligation to do so. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, all of which speak only as of today.
spk03: Lastly, the press release we issued earlier this morning is posted on the investor relations section of our website.
spk01: A copy of the release has also been included in an 8K submitted to the SEC. We will make a replay of this conference call available via webcast on the company website. With that said, I'll turn the call over to Scott Parker. Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on today's call. We achieved a record $669 million of sales in the first quarter, Growth was split fairly evenly, weighted a little bit more to favorable pricing than volume growth. Demand remained strong at both ADS and Apple Trader throughout our end markets and geographic footprint. In addition, international sales increased 82% this quarter with growth in our Canadian, Mexican, and exports businesses. Our backlog and pace of orders remain favorable, as well as our ability to capture price in the market, giving us confidence in the updated sales targets we issued today. We have issued several price increases since late last year to cover inflationary cost pressure and will continue to use our leading market position in that respect, as well as ABS and Infiltrator's scaled position in material procurement and recycling operations, to procure material at the best possible cost and availability. Moving to profitability, our adjusted EBITDA increased 4% on a dollar basis, again driven by the favorable pricing and strong volume growth. The price increases we achieved over the last 10 months largely covered the inflationary pressure on materials and diesel. There are additional headwinds related to driver availability, an increase in the use of common carrier and an increase in common carrier rates that we are working to offset. We remain confident in our ability to identify and execute the right mitigation programs and expand our margins over time. Material prices started to rise in October 2020, increasing more significantly as a result of the winter storms that hit the Gulf region in February of 2021. In the first quarter, our material cost per pound increased significantly compared to the prior year. Additionally, in the second quarter, we will experience the largest gap between historically high material prices this year and historically low material prices of last year. The price increases we've pushed into the market are largely covering material, and we continue to raise prices in line with these material increases, as well as reprice quotes over 30 days old to ensure we're covering the sequentially higher costs. Material availability has improved since our last call. It comes at a price, but we are doing what it takes to get materials out to our facilities so we can support customer needs, including incurring additional transportation costs and shoveling production scheduling more than we have in the past. We remain committed to meeting our customers' demand and have efforts underway to ensure we continue to do so. Across the market, attracting and retaining manufacturing labor and drivers is difficult right now. We've had to increase the pay rate in many locations to help mitigate this issue, both starting pay as well as raises for current employees. In addition, last year we delayed all manufacturing bear increases until the second quarter due to the COVID-19 pandemic, making the first quarter year-over-year comparison more pronounced than usual. Within transportation, there are three major factors driving additional costs. One, we have a shortage of available drivers for our fleet, requiring us to utilize more common carrier than normal to service our customers. Number two, common carrier rates are up over 50% year on year. And number three, we're removing more material throughout the network to get it into the right location so we can meet customer demands. While three of our largest cost components, materials, labor, and transportation, have a lot of moving parts, we are responding with the following programs. To address the labor issues within manufacturing, we're focused on simplifying the manufacturing process for new employees, including focusing production and decreasing FKUs, reducing changeovers, and deploying centralized scheduling techniques. We have also consolidated inventory of some key products to fewer locations for better visibility and order management, again, simplifying the task and providing better visibility. Management time is focused on a handful of locations where we have the most issues, particularly with labor and capacity. We have created dedicated transportation lanes and are deploying route planning techniques to help with the transportation labor shortage. As well, we've expanded the use of 3PL partnerships for retail which freed up ADS fleet capacity for trade deliveries. More broadly on labor, we have added recruiting process outsourcing partnerships for our manufacturing and transportation labor of hiring, which has improved both the applicant flow and the onboarding process. Where possible, we have increased pipe imports from our Mexican and Canadian operations to further supplement supply and availability in the U.S., Finally, we were making capital investments to increase capacity, with some having an impact in Q4 for infiltrator and the ADS pipe manufacturing. We started up a pipe production line this month in the Midwest to increase capacity, and we have also made aggressive investments in the storm tech business to increase production capacity. We saw capital spending increase year over year in the first quarter, and this will continue as we invest in the long-term potential of both businesses. All that said, the momentum underpinning the core drivers of our business remains strong. Infiltrator maintained high levels of profitability in the first quarter despite similar challenges around materials, labor, and transportation. The international businesses also performed very well with double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth in each of those businesses. The domestic bike business is largely complex, and while we are very proud of the sales volume and pricing power, there are work items particularly with labor and transportation, which we'll have to grind through and continue to improve. While some of these work items are inflationary and potentially transitory, others are operational and need to be worked through systematically. In the areas where we started implementing programs using these techniques, namely the agriculture business, Canada, and Florida, we've seen positive results over the years. Solidating it throughout our larger manufacturing network is our task now. trader businesses combined to have their best sales quarter in our history the combination of the highest demand we've seen in our history across all regions simultaneously in an environment with labor and driver shortages and rapid inflation this all came on us and our industry at life very quickly in May and June and given this environment we expect our profitability going forward to look different quarter to quarter this year more like the seasonality in fiscal 2018 when we made the majority of our profitability dollar growth in the back half of the year. With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott Cottrell to further discuss our financial results. Thanks, Scott. On slide six, we present our first quarter fiscal 2022 financial performance. There are some key points that I want to hit on from a results perspective. Obviously, from a top-line perspective, we had significant growth year-to-year, driven by both pricing and volume. Legacy ADS pipe products grew 42%, and Adelaide products sales grew 13%. Infiltrator sales increased 24%, with double-digit sales growth in both tanks and leaks field products. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA increased 4.5% to $167 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.9% in the quarter, down from 31.4% in the first quarter of fiscal 2021. Scott discussed in detail the actions we have taken around the largest drivers of the margin compression. materials labor and transportation inflation as well as labor availability material costs are at the highest levels in recent memory and have continued to increase sequentially month to month throughout this year we've issued two more price increases since the end of our fiscal first quarter one in july and another just last week we will hit the full run rate of the announced price increases that today in our fiscal third quarter From an SG&A perspective, the first quarter results contain approximately $2 million of wages, travel, medical, and other expenses that were not incurred last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, commission expense increased in line with the sales growth we experienced in the first quarter year-over-year. In summary, we have a good line of sight to the costs impacting us and have actions in place to offset such as we move through the year. Based on the timing of these actions, we expect to see most of this improvement in the second half of our fiscal year. The long-term fundamentals of the business are still intact and will play out as we move past this unique period of higher inflation. Moving to slide seven, we generated $79 million of free cash flow this quarter compared to $124 million in the prior year, primarily driven by increased capital spending and working capital. The impact of working capital was primarily due to higher material costs moving through the balance sheet as compared to the year-ago period. We continue to make progress on our working capital initiatives, and during the quarter, working capital decreased to approximately 19% of sales, down from 21% of sales last year. Our first priority for capital deployment remains investing organically in the growth of the business, as demonstrated by the $15 million increase in capital expenditures we experienced in the first quarter. For the full year, we continue to expect between $130 million and $150 million in capital expenditures, our largest investment being to support future growth, followed by our productivity and automation initiatives. Further, as part of our disciplined capital deployment strategy, we repurchased 1.1 million shares of our common stock for a total of $115 million in the first quarter, leaving $177 million remaining under existing authorization as of June 30th. Our trailing 12-month leverage ratio was 1.2 times, and we ended the quarter with $480 million of liquidity. Finally, on slide 8, we have updated our fiscal 2022 guidance. Based on our performance to date, pricing actions taken, order activity, backlog, and current market trends, we currently expect net sales to be in the range of $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion. representing growth of 26% to 31% over the prior year. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance is unchanged at a range of $635 million to $665 million, representing growth of 12% to 17% over last year. The increase in our revenue guidance is due primarily to pricing that we've introduced into the market to date to offset the additional inflationary cost pressures we've discussed on the call today. With that, I'll open the call for questions. Operator, please open the line.
spk00: Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Again, that is star one. We'll pause for a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Michael Halloran with Bayard.
spk01: Good morning, everyone. Good morning. So let's start on the demand side. Maybe just talk about sequentials through the quarter, what that visibility looks like moving forward across the various industries you serve and what your client base is saying and any kind of thoughts on visibility slash sustainability on the demand side. It certainly feels like you're very confident. I'd just like to hear a little more details on it. So good morning, Mike. This is Scott Barber. And although all of our segments are up, the retail is a little weaker. But our order rate in the core non-residential, residential, infiltrator agriculture businesses on a pound volume basis remains double digit. And I don't hear our customers. either at the distribution or contractor level, talk about demand destruction. What they talk about is availability of product. So we're pretty confident in that kind of rolling forward and being able to execute on this backlog. And then let's talk on the flip side of the coin then. Obviously, the leverage was a challenge in the quarter. Could you try to bucket out for us you know, how much of this was just the price cost lag that's materializing given the rapid inflation? How much is all the network repositioning that you need to do to make sure you're meeting the customer demand? You know, how much is the transportation piece? Could you just give us some directional sense for, for where the, how those pressure points lined out? Well, and probably Scott, see how low you can take this. And, but you know, the one that really came on hard and fast was the transportation piece. And it was really, you know, kind of complicated to unwind as we got into May and June. You know, number one, you know, we're having to run more on common carrier fleet than our fleet than we traditionally done, and that's because of a driver shortage versus our plan. And that shortage was driven by retirement, difficulty in hiring, I mean, all things that we got to go work on. But I think that one, and then the rate at which it costs us to get common carrier. And we have pretty good, you know, relationships and contractual type of things with these folks. But, you know, it was just that that one came on hard. And then I don't know what happens in June in the country, but, you know, the movement of labor and ability to attract labor just really changed from, let's call it, the April, May, to the June, July time frame. And we've done things. It's gotten a little bit better here recently. But it was a big digestion that came on us there in that period of time. As far as the price increase timing, Scott's been working that very hard. Yeah, I think for the quarter, Mike, it's basically one of those items that we stayed in front of it. But, again, from an incremental margin perspective on that, obviously diluted from a margin perspective. But, again, from a dollar perspective, stayed in front of it. We've been, again, in the market with two price increases since the end of the quarter, as we mentioned. So, yes, we've got the labor issue on both the manufacturing and transportation side of the house. We've got the common carrier usage and common carrier rate. That's all still coming at us as we go through the next couple quarters at least. And that's why we're getting the pricing into the market. Which has a lag effect. Yes. So it's our line of sight, and as we look forward... through the year, that's why we are confident in getting that revenue guidance up to the level that we're talking to and staying in front of not just material costs, which, again, sequentially, month over month, continue to go up, but as well as these labor inefficiencies as well as transportation costs. And a lot of that we'll see coming in in the second half. So to be clear here, then, the price increases that you're putting through in the marketplace are designed to cover all of these inflationary pressures you just suggested and that's why when you hit the third quarter fiscal third quarter plus or minus you should start seeing a lot more favorability in terms of the cumulative price cost um metrics and and what those margin metrics might look like just as the ketchup starts materializing based on what we know right now obviously inflation could continue and that could make it more challenging push that out but is that a fair way And that's why when I think about a typical cadence in the year on margins, fiscal 1Q, 2Q, your peak quarters revenue tends to fade a little bit. That's why we might see a different relative margin cadence through the year than we might normally see. Absolutely correct. Okay. All right. I'll leave it there and get back in queue. Thanks, guys. Thank you.
spk00: Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Bui with Barclays.
spk03: Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking questions. Following up on the last one, because it sounds like, you know, the price expectation is there in terms of covering, you know, these cost issues. But, Scott B., at the top, you mentioned a few sort of operational changes you're making beyond price. I'm curious if you could maybe expand on that a little bit and kind of what you know, what you see is, I don't know if you can quantify anything, but anything around the ability for some of these operational changes you're making to offset the cost issues as well and kind of what, you know, what might be the lasting impact of some of those changes as we think about, you know, 22. Thank you.
spk01: So I did go through kind of our focus list of operational things that we're working. And, you know, A lot of those are designed to try to make it simpler, reduce SKUs, reduce changeovers even more than we already have, to increase throughput, make it easier as we go through a pretty significant hiring and some turnover. The new hires do tend to turnover faster. And so that's all designed to kind of get throughput up, which will give us better productivity per labor hour. And that's an important thing, mainly that additional capacity. I'd also add to that that we've done this and we've exercised many of these techniques in those three parts of our business, Florida, Canada, and the agriculture region, and they've worked very well. And getting those replicated in our network is what we're really working on, particularly in a couple of places where we've got to get focused. Those are lasting. uh initiatives matthew i mean those those things will be there forever as well as many of the other kind of procurement activities that we do in non-investment or turning underneath a lot of transportation things uh you know the move to another region where we're done a 3pl partnership for their retail deliveries and freed up fleet capacity for trade deliveries we're now doing that in two regions very successfully again lasting impact replicate that in other regions as we go through. I wish we could do it all at once and snap my fingers, but it takes a lot of time and planning for Pat's team to kind of get those in place. So those are all kind of permanent things, you know, permanent improvements we can make. Now we'll have to use those to offset, you know, the wages, the wage increases that we've seen, you know, beyond the normal. But in the future, I don't think that's a transitory type of thing. I think the material will flatten out and go back down, but the timing of that is very unknown to us or anyone, I think. So that one might be a bit more transitory as the common carrier rate piece, but this trucking and driver availability and all that, I don't think that's a totally short-term issue. I think that one I hope that was helpful, a little color underneath those.
spk03: Yeah, very much. That's exactly what I was looking for and certainly understood, you know, around what you're saying there around commentary and all that. So if I think back a few years when, you know, after the, for example, the hurricanes in Texas and you saw a big spike in materials, you know, in the subsequent months, you guys were able to largely offset that with price if you can kind of educate us on some of the history it's in this scenario if we ever get to the other side of all this um and again i hear i hear what you're saying around common carriers that that may take a little longer but you know if we ever get the materials at least flattening out or deflating um you know how you think about price in that scenario you've taken multiple price increases and you got more to come you know, to what degree are you able to kind of hold on to margin in a scenario where you eventually get deflation? Thank you.
spk01: So I think, you know, our FY18, the fall of 2017, hurricane hits, we get pricing up, very impactful in our second half, and we had a very good second half, maybe a year. I think a little different, you know, I didn't have my transportation and my labor moving on me at that same time. I was kind of fighting a one-front war in that one. And we held on to that, and we largely built upon that over the last couple of years, last three years, I'd say, very successfully. We're doing some models on the impact of if we can hold on to 90% of that, 80% of that, 70% of that. I don't think we're going to be able to hold on to all of it as successfully as we did in the past, but I like our chances of holding on to the vast majority of it as we go forward. Now, we'll have to balance that against our share gain activities. We'll have to balance that against, you know, some other things. but certainly that's our go-to. Yeah, I would say it's not a question of holding on to margins, Matt, as you verbalize it. It's more of the magnitude of the ability to expand margins in that scenario. We're going to program it back. Exactly. So, I mean, it's going to be all of the CI and lean initiatives Scott went through, plus the pricing. And then, again, as you've said over the years, you know the playbook. But this is unprecedented times and price increases. We will get some of it back. But from a margin expansion perspective, the playbook, yeah, we know how to work that. We'll continue to do that.
spk03: Got it. Great. Well, that's really helpful call, guys. Thank you, and best of luck in the next quarter.
spk02: thanks thanks your next question comes from the line of josh pokrasinski with morgan stanley hey good morning guys good morning so just on the the markets themselves because i think we could we could probably talk about inflation all day and so it feels like from maybe some of your peers out there it's pretty much all we do all earnings season but the uh it's got if i go back to last year You know, you guys held up a lot better than kind of the rest of the non-resi-facing market, you know, with the share gains, the kind of bias to the crescent, you know, more horizontal construction. I think we're seeing the broader market kind of bounce back a little bit more. You know, is that something you guys are seeing? Is there any kind of lapping effect of maybe some of those areas of strength from last year, like warehouse and data center, that are kind of moderating the volume growth? Like, can you just sort of contextualize that? how your markets are sort of bouncing back maybe relative to the census data?
spk01: Yeah, so that is all intact. I mean, the crescent remains very strong. In addition, New England, the Northeast, the Northwest, which are really good territories for us, bounce back really quite strong. So I think we're up in every region. And the agriculture business also remains very strong. The only place that weakened was the sales to the do-it-yourself kind of channel, which is understandable given how much it was up last year, and we were glad to have it last year. So we remain very bullish. on the warehouse you know you guys see the data just like we do tremendous construction pulled forward to build these warehouses we remain very bullish on residential uh we had our board of directors at infiltrator for the last three days two days two and a half days and man that is going great guns as well as the pipe business the services the residential at abs that horizontal construction that follows that residential remains strong. And we're in a position now across our product lines where we build and ship. And so that's why this capital investment, these productivity initiatives are so important because everything we build right now, we can't move out the door quick. It goes on a truck. It goes on a truck.
spk02: Got it. And then I guess just sort of related to that point, given that you guys are pretty busy, a little bottlenecked, presumably with kind of the more concrete-based alternatives out there, I would imagine that capacity is sort of a little bit more fungible or maybe flexible, like, is there anything in terms of kind of that share gain, you know, or, you know, selling in the story to, you know, to the right folks that has gotten delayed at all as a function of, hey, we're just, you know, we're too busy as the contractors or, hey, you guys have longer, you know, the normal lead times that, you know, is sort of, you know, throwing that off a little bit here in the short term.
spk01: I think the lead time issue is definitely there. You know, it's not pervasive in every territory or every contract or something like that, but definitely is our lead time with LinkedIn more than we like? You know, there's no doubt that that gives us a chance for a concrete alternative in that. I don't think it's going to damage our shared inventory long term, but you're correct. I mean, it's under a little stress right now. But that said, you know, we got to service our customers and the ones that have been loyal to us and that are kind of that, you know, core customer base. So, you know, I think every one of our regional managers has been in, you know, and I would say talk to us about, you know, I have an account I've been trying to gain for several years. This is the opportunity to do it. In some cases, we've had to take a pass, and that hurts. no doubt, but fundamentally it's not going to damage our story, I don't believe. When you look at the, Josh, when you look at the strength of the order book and the order activity that we've seen as well, the quoting, the coming through our digital design tools, and this guy's point, the lead times are going out. So we're still seeing really, really strong demand. And, yeah, I'm afraid you see that, but really good activity. We question whether there are enough contractors out there to install everything on order in the industry.
spk00: or with us in particular but i'm told we should we ship it they can put it in got it appreciate all the color best of luck guys thank you guys ladies and gentlemen again if you would like to ask a question please press star then the number one on your telephone keypad again that is star one we'll pause for a moment to compile the q a roster And again, that is star one. Your next question comes from the line of Garrick Chamois with Loop Capital.
spk01: Hi. Thanks for having me on. First off, just on the cost that you're adding with respect to labor and capacity, I guess just to be clear, are these costs contemplated in your guidance, and how should they they end up pacing as the year progresses. Is this, you know, kind of isolated to 2Q, or are you anticipating to add the labor and capacity costs throughout the rest of the year? Yeah, I would say basically our guidance assumes that the level of the labor, inefficiencies, transportation costs, and headwinds, that they stay with us. So we've kind of assumed that that. Higher cost basis kind of is with us for a while, and hence the need, desire, and actions we took related to pricing, both at the end of our fiscal Q1 as well as the two subsequent pricing increases afterwards. So, again, when we look at pricing, absolutely material costs are one of the first things we look at, but it's the value proposition, it's what's coming at us on labor, transportation, et cetera, and make sure that we can go get that value and that return. So it's all in when we look at it for all of the remaining year in that lifetime. Okay, got it. Then just want to drill down by segment a little bit more. Obviously, you know, it looks like the margin pressure in the quarter is the most pronounced in pipe. Some of the other businesses actually held in, you know, reasonably well compared to last year. So, you know, I think you cited a couple of factors that may be specific to pipe. I just wanted to be clear on that, you know, with respect to this. rationalization, some of the transportation inflation. I just want to be clear that those headwinds are more specific to pipe, or should we anticipate that maybe some of the margin headwinds that hit pipe are just coming for some of the other divisions? It's just a timing issue. I don't think they're timing issues. That's a good question. It's with Scott B. The pipe part of our business is the most transportation intensive of all those product lines. You think about it, you ship a lot of air. There's less dollars per load than on an infiltrator product or an allied product. So that kind of makes sense to it. Those products saw rises in transportation costs, but they were easier to kind of see and offset with the pricing. And the pipe network is also spread out for that reason. The production tends to be a little bit more localized. So you run into those localized wage rate issues, difficulty in getting labor, all these kinds of things, although that's been at all locations in the process. But I don't think this is a case uh we saw it first in pipe and it spreads to the others that's not what's happening you just what you're seeing in there is just the transportation intensity of that pipe manufactured in that pipe network great uh thanks for that and uh best of luck was there okay thanks thanks gary and your next question comes from the line of michael hellerin with baird Hey, thanks for taking a couple more questions. So bought some stock back on the quarter. You know, obviously the internal investment side is priority one, ramping capex, trying to manage the network appropriately. I certainly understand that. But how are you guys thinking about balancing the external usage of capital at this point, you know, buyback versus M&A? And then also on the M&A side, just some thoughts of what the actionability in the pipeline looks like. So, you know, we've got a lot of capital ramping up and that remains our number one priority and because obviously we need that. We have a couple actionable things we're working on right now in the M&A pipeline. They'll develop as they develop, but we love them both. Once we get through this tranche, we'll go back and have another discussion on the shared buyback with our board of directors. And we'll make an assessment kind of You know, the organic, M&A, what does the market look like at that point? You know, how do we feel about to go forward? Is everything doing like we said we were going to get it done? And we'll make another decision on that one. But we felt that the buyback was a good use of cash because it was kind of building up on our balance sheet. We had plenty of liquidity to do anything we saw in the reasonable time frame. and remain very confident in the cash-generating capabilities of the company. So that's how we talk about it internally with the board, Mike. And I think that point that Scott hit on during the opening comment, you know, we're still making a lot of investments from a capital expenditure organic investment, if you will, perspective to stay in front of that great growth and that order book and backlog that we have there. But as well, those productivity and automation initiatives that we have are So a lot of that investment remains our number one, followed by M&A, and then Scott's point. We'll decide on the kind of distribution side of that part as to what our opportunities look like and what our forecast looks like as we move forward. Good. That was the only one I had. Thank you. Appreciate it. Thanks, Scott.
spk00: There are no further questions in queue at this time. Presenters, are there any closing remarks?
spk01: Thank you all very much for joining us today. We appreciate the quality of questions and insights that you all have in the company. We have clearly thrilled with the sales and the volume and the question side of it. We're operating very well in several parts. There's some other things we have to go work on, but that's what we do. And we'll continue to kind of work through those. A little bit different cadence. and profitability this year versus last year, but I think still building out the right place. So we appreciate it and look forward to speaking with you all again soon.
spk00: Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
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