Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.

Hello everyone and welcome to Zinnia Hotels and Resorts third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Lydia and I'll be your operator today. After our prepared remarks, there'll be an opportunity for you to ask some questions. If you'd like to queue up, you can do so by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. I now hand you over to Aldo Martinez, manager finance to begin. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Lydia. And welcome to Zinnia Hotels and Resorts third quarter 2024 earnings call in webcast. I'm here with Marcel Verbaust, our chair and chief executive officer, Barry Bloom, our president and chief operating officer and Atish Shah, our executive vice president and chief financial officer. Marcel will begin with a discussion on our performance. Barry will follow with more details on operating trends and capital expenditure projects. And Atish will conclude today's remarks with commentary on our balance sheet and outlook. We will then open the call for Q&A. Before we get started, let me remind everyone that certain statements made on this call are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our annual report on form 10K and other SEC filings, which could cause our actual results to differ from materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the earnings release that we issued yesterday afternoon, along with the comments on this call are made only as of today, November 7th, 2024. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any of these forward-looking statements as actual events unfold. You can find the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to net income and definitions of certain items referred to in our remarks in our third quarter earnings release, which is available on our investor relations section of our website. The property level information we will be speaking about today is on a same property basis for all 31 hotels, unless specified otherwise. An archive of this call will be available on our website for 90 days. I will now turn it over to Marcel to get started.

Thanks, Aldo, and good morning to everyone joining our call today. Before discussing our third quarter results, I would like to first acknowledge the extraordinary efforts of our project management team as we achieved an extremely important company milestone last week with the up-branding of the former high dream to Scottsdale through the spectacular Grand Hyatt Scottsdale Resort. In addition to the pool complex and its food and beverage amenities that were completed earlier in the year, we have now also completed the renovation of the guest rooms, the spa, the existing meeting space, the lobby, the Grand Vista lobby bar, and the newly created signature restaurants. These exciting new restaurants include Mesa Central, a Southwestern-themed three-meal restaurant, Tikitaka, a global small plate concept, including a sushi bar, and the resort's premier restaurant, La Zanzana, an upscale modern Italian steak and seafood concept, all in collaboration with celebrity chef Richard Blais. The resort officially was rebranded as Grand Hyatt Scottsdale Resort on November 1st, and we are excited about the future of this outstanding property in one of the most appealing resort locations in the country. Now turning to our financial results, for the third quarter of 2024, the company had a net loss of $7.1 million, adjusted EB diary was $44.3 million, and adjusted FFO per share was 25 cents. Results came in below our expectations for the quarter as a number of factors negatively impacted the portfolio during the quarter. Lever demand continued to normalize, and although hurricanes Debbie, Francine, and Helene did not cause significant damage at any of our properties, they did negatively impact demand at most of our properties in the Southeast in August and September. The combination of overall software leisure demand and the hurricane impact at our hotels in the Southeast were largely responsible for the rest of our declines we experienced at our hotels in San Diego, Nashville, New Orleans, Key West, Napa, Savannah, and Charleston. Additionally, renovation disruption during the quarter, specifically in Scottsdale, was greater than we previously projected. Same property, Refvar, for our 31 hotel portfolio increased by .5% for the quarter, while Refvar increased by .1% when excluding Scottsdale. Same property, Occupancy, increased by 320 basis points, while ADR decreased by 3.3%. Refvar growth was driven by continued strong results at our recently renovated Grand Bohemian Hotel Orlando, Canary Hotel Santa Barbara, and Hotel Monaco Salt Lake City. Additionally, our three Houston hotels, our Atlanta properties, and our rich Carltons in Pentagon City and Denver outperformed the remainder of our portfolio in the third quarter. As we have discussed in prior earnings calls, we expected Scottsdale performance to become a tailwind during the third quarter, and this partially materialized as our two resorts in the Phoenix-Scottsdale market achieved a combined .1% Refvar increase compared to the same period last year. This increase was lower than we previously projected, since the impact of the Grand Hyatt renovation was greater than anticipated during the quarter. Having now completed the components that most negatively impacted the guest experience through the month of October, we expect to see significant -over-year Refvar gains in Scottsdale in the months ahead. On the same property basis, third quarter same property Hotel Ibidda of $48.1 million was .3% below 2023 levels, and Hotel Ibidda margin decreased to 100 basis points. Excluding Scottsdale, third quarter Hotel Ibidda decreased 3.4%, and Hotel Ibidda margin decreased by 144 basis points. In a continuation of what our portfolio experienced in the second quarter, expense pressures, although they are moderating a bit, and the increase in occupancy coupled with the ADR decrease drove the margin decline for the third quarter in comparison to last year. Consistent with demand trends over the last few quarters, group and corporate transit demand remained relative bright spots during the quarter. Same property group room revenues, excluding Scottsdale, increased .8% as compared to the third quarter last year. And midweek corporate transient occupancy continued its positive momentum. Turning to our capital expenditure projects, we now project that we will spend between $130 and $140 million on property improvements during the year, an increase of $5 million compared to our prior estimate. This is a result of the timing of payments, as well as an increase in smaller projects executed at the property level that we now expect to be completed by the end of this year. We continue to expect to spend $70 to $75 million on the Scottsdale renovation in 2024. We still anticipate substantial completion of the project, including the ballroom and pre-function space expansion by the end of this year, with just some exterior work that is not expected to impact the guest experience, remaining to be completed in early 2025. Now that most of the major components of the transformative renovation have been completed, and the property has officially relaunched as Grand Hyatt Scottsdale Resort, the overall guest experience has been significantly enhanced. The construction of the new ballroom and pre-function space is progressing as planned, without negatively impacting the overall operations and feel of the resort. We are continuing to expect that the resort will be able to host groups in this outstanding new space in January. We experienced greater disruption during the third quarter than previously estimated, as a result of the lobby and restaurants not being accessible to guests during the quarter. Additionally, the opening of the new signature restaurants and bars was delayed until November, which not only impacted food and beverage revenues, but also the overall guest experience and the official launch under a new brand. As a result, we have increased our estimated renovation disruption on our adjusted EBITDA RE in 2024 by $3 million.

We are

thrilled that we have completed the majority of the project at this time. And while the financial results will be ramping up over the next several quarters, this phenomenal upgraded resort is expected to be a significant driver for our company's earnings growth over the next few years. Turning to transaction activity, we previously disclosed that we sold the Lorient Hotel and Spa in Alexandria, Virginia, for a sale price of $30 million in early July. As a reminder, this price represented a very attractive 21.3 times multiple on the Hotel EBITDA for the 12 months ended May 31st, 2024. We are continuing to analyze potential additions to the portfolio, as well as any dispositions that we believe will enhance our earnings growth profile in the years ahead. We are not anticipating any changes to the portfolio composition for the balance of this year. And as we look ahead to 2025, we will continue to patiently evaluate these opportunities in conjunction with our prudent balance sheet management and review of internal ROI opportunities. As we announced in our release yesterday, we have taken another significant step to further solidify our balance sheet and create additional flexibility for the company by upsizing and extending our corporate credit facility. While Teach will provide more detail during his remarks, I would like to take this opportunity to thank our lender group for their continued support of our company's long-term strategy. As we near the end of 2024, we have reduced our guidance for our full year just EBITDA RE as compared to our forecast after our second quarter results. This is reflective of both our actual third quarter results and a reduced outlook for the fourth quarter. Our fourth quarter outlook has moderated as a result of the impact of Hurricane Milton on our properties in Orlando in October, recent demand trends, and the approximate one month delay in the relaunch of Grant Hyatt Scottsville. Teach will provide additional detail on our updated guidance during his remarks. Despite the negative impacts on October results that I just mentioned, we estimate the same property rep bar increased by approximately 4% in October as compared to the same period in 2023. When excluding Grant Hyatt Scottsville Resort, we estimate that the October rep bar was of approximately .4% compared to last year. These rep bar increases reflect an acceleration compared to results in the third quarter, albeit not to the level we previously projected. While uncertainty exists regarding the overall economic environment and lodging industry results in the short term, we continue to have an optimistic view regarding our portfolio performance in the years ahead. We are excited that the bulk of the transformative Scottsville project is behind us, and continue to expect to read the benefits of this substantial project for years to come. Additionally, we believe that our high quality portfolio is well positioned to outperform in the years ahead, given its diversified locations, strong brand affiliations, and quality of its room products and amenities. I will now turn the call over to Barry to provide more details on our operating results and capital projects.

Thank you, Marcel, and good morning, everyone. For the third quarter, our 31 same property portfolio rep bar was $161.20, based on occupancy of 67% at an average daily rate of $240.72, an increase of .5% as compared to the third quarter in 2023. Excluding Grand Hyatt Scottsdale Resort, third quarter rep bar was $168.48, an increase of .1% as compared to 2023, which reflected 2.9 points of occupancy gain and a decline of approximately .1% in average daily rate. As Marcel indicated in his remarks, the same property leaders in terms of rep bar growth in the quarter included our hotels that underwent comprehensive renovations in 2023. Grand Bohemian Orlando, up 85%, Monaco Salt Lake City, up 33%, and Kimpton Canary Santa Barbara, which was completed earlier in 2023, up 10%. Grand Hyatt Scottsdale Rep Bar was up 64% compared to the third quarter of last year, as we begin to lap the challenging renovation disruption we experienced over the last 17 months. Several of our hotels, including those in Houston, Orlando, Key West, Savannah, Charleston, and New Orleans, were impacted by a number of hurricanes which occurred throughout the quarter. Including Hurricane Milton in October, we estimate that collectively EBITDA was impacted by approximately $2 million related to a combination of net loss revenues, increased operating expenses, and expenses related to cleanup and repair. We do not anticipate any insurance recovery from these storms. Rep Bar grew significantly compared to the third quarter of last year at our three hotels in Houston, collectively of 18.4%, and at several of our luxury hotels, including Ritz-Carlton Denver, up 7.5%, Waldorf Astoria Buckhead, up 6.8%, and Ritz-Carlton Pentagon City, up 5.2%. The growth in these markets is a result of clearly improving business transient and group demand we continue to see across the portfolio. Properties that experienced Rep Bar weakness compared to the third quarter of 2023 included Lowe's New Orleans, Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress, and several of our smaller leisure-oriented properties in Savannah, Key West, and Napa. Looking at each month of the quarter, and excluding Grand Hyatt, Scottsdale Resort, July Rep Bar was $168.46, up .2% to July 2023. August Rep Bar was $160.13, up .2% compared to August 2023, and September Rep Bar was $177.11, down .9% compared to September 2023. We continue to be optimistic about the recovery in corporate demand as we continue to achieve higher midweek occupancies across the portfolio, for even during the traditionally softer third quarter, portfolio occupancies of approximately 75% were achieved midweek, representing an increase in nearly five occupancy points compared to the third quarter of 2023. We note that compared to the third quarter of 2019, for our portfolio excluding W Nashville, Hyatt Regency Portland, and Grand Hyatt Scottsdale, third quarter daily occupancies trailed 2019 by less than eight occupancy points midweek, sequential improvement compared to the second quarter. Friday and Saturday night occupancies trailed 2019 by less than five occupancy points. While this gap continues to be somewhat disappointing, our continually improving performance in our corporate transient and corporate group driven hotels gives us confidence that we still have significant growth ahead as our hotels continue to close this gap. Group business continues to be a bright spot across the portfolio, where the reversion of pre-pandemic patterns continues. For the third quarter, excluding Grand Hyatt Scottsdale Resort, group room revenues were up nearly 4% as compared to the third quarter last year. This growth was split relatively evenly with room nights and average rate each up just under 2%. We see a continued trend in our mix of group business, with association group business now recovering at a stronger pace than corporate group business and more bookings for future years than the current year, which a teach will highlight in his remarks. Now, turning to expenses and profit. Third quarter, same property Hotel Ibiza was $48.1 million, a decrease of .3% on a total revenue increase of .9% compared to the third quarter of 2023, resulting in 200 basis points of margin decline. Excluding Grand Hyatt Scottsdale Resort, Hotel Ibiza was $52.2 million, a decrease of .4% on a total revenue increase of 2.8%, resulting in margin decline of 144 basis points. This decline in Hotel Ibiza margin for the quarter was the result of several factors. Excluding Grand Hyatt Scottsdale Resort, rooms department costs increased nearly 6% over the third quarter of last year, primarily as a result of continued occupancy growth. However, this equated to just a .4% increase in expenses on a per occupied room basis, the sequential decline from last quarter as our hotels are continuing to adapt to a higher occupancy, lower ADR operating environment. Food and beverage revenue grew by nearly 5% during the quarter, as banquet and AV revenues achieved double digit increases, while outlet revenues were generally flat. Food cost and wages each increased approximately 6% compared to last year, resulting in a 15 basis point decline in overall food and beverage margin. Cancellation and nutrition revenues declined 14% compared to last year, returning to more normalized levels, which also impacted margins. In the continuation of a positive trend, other operating departments, including parking, spa and golf revenues, were up over 6%. In the undistributed departments, ANG expenses were well controlled and energy expenses declined, while sales and marketing and property operations expenses grew significantly as properties continue to restaff these areas to pre-COVID levels. According to CAPEX, during the third quarter, we invested $46.9 million in portfolio improvements, bringing our year to date total to $116.2 million. As Marcel discussed, we have completed our most significant work on the transformative renovation and up branding of the former Hyatt Regency Scottsdale Resort and Spa at Ganey Ranch, which is now the Grand Hyatt Scottsdale Resort. We are on schedule to complete the construction of the ballroom expansion by the end of 2024, and several building facade infrastructure projects will be completed in early 2025. We continue to be incredibly optimistic about how the hotel will perform post renovation. The initial response from both leisure and group guests has only affirmed our confidence in our expected outcome from this substantial investment. We are seeing future group business being booked at meaningfully higher rates than the hotel has achieved historically, with the average daily rate for group bookings for 2025 up over 35% from 2019 and ahead of our internal performance. We are particularly excited about group revenues for the second through fourth quarters of next year, where group revenues already exceed 2019 levels, and as production for 2025 continues to increase significantly each month. Much of this is the direct result of the expansion of the larger Arizona ballroom, which will allow the hotel to retain existing group customers, as well as attract new group customers who otherwise could not be accommodated at the resort, and the spectacular guest experiences being created throughout the resort, the guests are now able to see and experience. Initial response and feedback from the luxury travel agent community, a key component of the hotel's refined business plan, has also been very strong, as this channel views the property as a completely new addition to the Scottsdale market, they are excited to introduce to their clients. The property is hosting numerous familiarization trips for these critical booking agents, and again, the response to the virtually new facility and amenities has been tremendous. Renovations are now complete at two of our Texas hotels, where we performed work during the seasonally slow summer months, including renovation of the lobby and restaurant, relocation of the fitness facility, addition of Concierge Lounge, and upgrading the heavenly beds at the Westin Oaks Houston, and the renovation of the lobby and upgrading the heavenly beds at the Westin Galleria Houston. Work is now underway for a comprehensive renovation of the lobby and restaurant, and creation of an M Club at Marriott Woodlands Waterway early next year. In addition, we continue to make select upgrades to the guest rooms at several of our largest assets, including High Regency Santa Clara, Marriott SFO, and Renaissance Waverly in Atlanta. These projects are being phased around occupancy in order to minimize disruption. We're also continuing with approximately $20 million of infrastructure and sustainability projects this year, including significant HVAC upgrades at On Dusk San Diego, Fairmont Dallas, Marriott SFO, High Regency Santa Clara, Renaissance Waverly, and the Ritz Carlton Denver. We are incredibly excited to be nearing the completion of the Grand Hyatt Scottsdale Resort renovation, as well as all the other work that has been accomplished this year, and are confident that each will contribute to future growth in the portfolio. With that, I will turn the call over to

Atish. Thanks, Barry. I will provide an update on our balance sheet and discuss our guidance. As to our balance sheet earlier this week, we extended and upsized our corporate credit facility, thereby increasing our flexibility and resources. More specifically, we extended the maturity date on our facility to November, 2028, and we upsized our facility by over 20%. The capacity on our revolving line of credit increased from $450 million back to $500 million. Our revolver continues to be fully available. As to our bank term loan, the capacity increased from $225 million to $325 million. The current outstanding balance is $225 million. The pricing on our facility is unchanged. The terms improved slightly. All of our existing banks supported the transaction, and we added one new bank to the syndicate. Overall, we are pleased with the outcome of this facility recast and grateful to our bank group for their support. Now turning to our 2024 guidance, we have adjusted our full year outlook downward to reflect a variety of factors over both the third and fourth quarters. As to adjusted EBIT.RE, we have lowered the midpoint by $11 million to $238 million. The breakout of this change is as follows. We estimate the impact from hurricanes is about $2 million. We estimate the impact of renovation-related revenue displacement at Scottsdale is about $3 million. And we estimate the remainder is attributed to several factors, including a slower fourth quarter ramp at Grand Heights Scottsdale, softer leisure demand across the portfolio, and continued pressure on margins due to expense growth and the mix of occupancy versus ADR. As to the $11 million variance by quarter, about $5 million relates to the third quarter, and $6 million relates to the fourth quarter. From a Revpart perspective, we've lowered our expectation for Revpart growth by 125 basis points to .75% at the midpoint. Excluding Grand Heights Scottsdale, we have lowered our expectations for Revpart growth by 50 basis points to .25% at the midpoint. As to our adjusted FFO per diluted share guidance, we have reduced it by 10 cents. We now expect FFO per share of $1.58. The other elements of our guidance have shifted slightly since we last reported. Our full-year capital expenditure guidance has increased by $5 million at the midpoint. Cash G&A expense has declined by $1 million to $23 million. Shifting ahead to current trends and initial thoughts for 2025, as we look ahead to November and December, our group revenue pace is up over 10%, and our transient revenue pace is up over 6%. We still expect a significant lift from Grand High at Scottsdale, as the property was a big headwind to overall Revpart in November and December of last year. We estimate that the impact was about 475 basis points to overall Revpart in November and December of last year. As we look farther ahead, group business for 2025 continues to look quite strong. The group revenue pace info that we are providing is as of the third quarter. As is typical this far in advance, about half of our expected 2025 group revenue is currently on the books. Group revenue pace is up nearly 20%, excluding Grand High at Scottsdale, group revenue pace is up in the mid-teens percentage range. Before I wrap up, I'll add that we continue to be well-positioned for opportunities to evolve the portfolio in the years ahead. The early indicators on Scottsdale are positive, and we expect the resort to deliver on our stabilized target in the low $40 million Hotel Evita range over time. We continue to feel good about the new supply picture, and based on our operator's assessment, a continued recovery in demand, particularly from larger corporate clients, group customers, and international inbound travelers. And with that, we will turn the call back over to Lydia to begin our Q&A session.

Thank you, Atish. Please press star followed by the number one if you'd like to ask a question, and ensure your device is unmuted locally when it's your turn to speak. In the interest of time, we kindly ask that you limit yourself to one question. Our first question comes from Dori Keston with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Thanks,

good morning. We appreciate the details on group pace for, I guess, for Scottsdale and for the remainder of the portfolio. Are you able to provide a little bit more, I guess, guidelines on how the hotel may ramp over the next few years? I just, rate-wise, it looks like you're drafting your peers for the first few months, but that spread lessens pretty considerably by mid-25.

I'm sorry, can you just repeat that last part, Dori? I didn't quite get what you were saying as far as going into 25.

Sure. I was just asking if you can provide a little bit more detail on the pace of how you get below 40 million EBITDA range, and then I was just noticing, it looks like your rates kind of coming out of the gate for drafting your immediate peers for the first few months, but they lessen pretty considerably by the time you get to mid-25.

Yeah, so, okay, thanks. I appreciate that, Dori. Thanks for clarification. So, Barry pointed out in his remarks that as we get a little deeper into next year, that we're pretty optimistic about what we're seeing so far, given that when you look at the combination of Q2 through Q4, that we're already kind of at the group revenue pace that we were in 19 for 20. So, if you think about it, it's gonna take a few years, obviously, to stabilize here. So, to kind of answer your question on that, it's gonna take a few years to kind of get to that low $40 million range, but it's highly encouraging to us that we're seeing already from Q2 through Q4 this number that's really equates to what we're seeing in 19 for 20. Now, part of that is, and Barry pointed out that what is really encouraging is that the rates are significantly higher than where we were, obviously, in 19. Now, part of that is, you could say, is general inflation, but we are definitely seeing an ability to book at higher rates. And we always expected that it was gonna take a little bit of time for the meeting planners to actually see the finished product and be able to really get a feel for what the resort is like and start building some momentum there. So, I think what you were referring to is some of the rates that you're seeing kind of for the resort as the year goes along. And clearly, we always expected that coming out of the gate, it was obviously a little bit slower ramp up in the first quarter or two, and then really kind of getting some traction as we get deeper into the year.

Okay, thank you. Our next question comes from David Katz with Jeffery. Please go ahead. Hi, David, your line is open. Unfortunately, we're not getting any audio, so we'll move to our next question, which is Michael Belisario with BED. Please go ahead.

Thanks, good morning, everyone. Good

morning.

I have a question for you, David. Two questions, ask them together. First one's just sort of a follow-up. On Scottsdale, the $3 million EBITDA impact, does that mean the entire ramp up, as you look out, is maybe $3 million behind? And that 25 would be $3 million less than what you would have thought it maybe would have done a quarter ago and maybe just help us frame the ramp up expectations there today versus last quarter, just thinking about 25. And then for Barry, just on the expenses, just thanks for walking through all the line items. Just any geographies that you'd point out that are maybe affecting the expense pressures that you referenced, and then if I understood everything correctly, like the expense pressures, it's really just rate and occupancy mix, right? It's less about the absolute level of -for-like expense growth. Thanks.

Yeah, thanks, Mike. I'll take the first part, and Atish, feel free to jump in there as well. And then Barry will answer the second part of your question, your second question. Despite what Lydia said, we're more than happy to take two questions from you on this, Mike. So the first part, there, we pointed out there was a delay of about a month in the completion of some of the components, particularly as it related to the restaurants and bar, which clearly the $3 million additional disruption we're talking about is really kind of spread through both the third quarter when we saw more disruption than we had previously projected because of the fact that so much of the resort was inaccessible to guests and just created more disruption than we had previously anticipated. And then the additional parts of the 3 million is really because of what happened in October and the fact that we weren't ready to go fully at the beginning of the quarter, as opposed to now getting into November, after having completed these facilities that they're kind of opening here through November. So that caused the additional 3 million of the disruption. Now, what that also did cause obviously is that since we were kind of ready to hit the ground, running a little bit later than anticipated is that we're clearly ramping up a little bit slower in the fourth quarter than we previously thought we would because we thought we were gonna be able to, again, have these facilities open in October, which is clearly a strong month, generally in the Phoenix-Cosco market. So that ramp up is gonna be a little bit slower as we get through the rest of the year. Now, to kind of equate that to 25, that's difficult to say, frankly, because I don't think the situation for 25 has changed really from what we previously anticipated because we still anticipate that the meeting space is gonna be available at the end of the year. So in January, we'll be able to start accommodating groups in that space. Clearly all the facilities are open. As you know, leisure demand doesn't necessarily book out too far ahead. So I think we're in a good position to still deliver in 25 what we otherwise would have delivered. So I don't see that really bleeding into the 25 expectations. And that's just a normal ramp up that I talked about earlier at the Dory's question. So unless you wanna add anything, Tisho, Barry can answer the second part of your question,

Mike. Mike, I think what you surmise is what we are and aren't seeing, which is that we're not seeing particular pockets of abnormal expense growth across the portfolio. It's been fairly even in terms of geography. The properties that are performing best and that are where we're actually growing margin are the properties where we're experiencing both occupancy and rate growth, which is not terribly surprising. So we're able to cover the increases in costs that we're seeing through the P&L and where we're seeing the largest occupancy increases in connection with rate declines is where we're seeing the most margin erosion. So some of that also skews in our portfolio a little bit to the smaller hotels. As I mentioned, one of the two of the key challenges right now are where we're bringing back or our managers are bringing back fixed staffing in both sales and marketing and property operations and maintenance. And that that obviously impacts smaller hotels more than it impacts bigger hotels in terms of how margin is ultimately performing.

Thank

you. Our next question comes from Ari Klein with BMI Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thanks and good morning. Maybe just following up on Scottsdale, what is the EBITDA contribution this year? And in 2019, the hotel did 23 million and in 2022 it did 30 million. And I appreciate that it's gonna take a while to get to the stabilized number, but are those or either those realistic kind of goalposts for 2025?

Yeah, we've obviously outlined what we believe is a disruption for this year. So it's reasonable to assume that we get that back as we get into the next year. As you recall, when we were getting close to the $30 million number before in 22, a lot of that was also driven by some really frothy leisure demand that was in the market. And there's no question that overall there has been a lot of disruption and a little bit of softening clearly with leisure throughout the country, but also impacting a market like Phoenix Scottsdale. So we do expect that we're gonna get that disruption back next year. To answer the first part of your question, it's not contributing a whole lot of EBITDA this year because obviously you've seen what the disruption numbers are that we've put out. So we do expect to get that disruption back. Hopefully some growth there. We talked about the fact that what we can point to is clearly the group base and where things are going there. We feel very confident about the direction that's heading for next year. But it gives us some confidence that we're starting to see some growth over that disruption number. And then it'll take a year or two from there to kind of get to that stabilized number going forward. What Barry also pointed out is that now that the project is essentially done and the meeting planners are seeing this, they're obviously getting very excited about that. So the number of leads that the property is getting, not just for 25, but really going into 2026 and 27, is highly encouraging. So we still feel as confident, if not more confident today than when we started this project that we'll get to those stabilized numbers.

Thanks for that. And then just on the expenses, I guess what would be helpful is just, what caught you by surprise? Was this occupancy AGR shift, I guess, unexpected from your point of view? And are those trends expected to continue, I guess, moving forward?

Yeah, I think as we came in the quarter and really across the board, our operators had a much more balanced view of occupancy and rate that we would see during the quarter. And I think as the quarter progressed and as we moved through the summer months, the properties were not seeing a lot of occupancy growth at the rates they were initially offering and did a lot of rate strategizing in conjunction with conversations with our asset management team that really shifted that as a strategy to be able to drive as much revenue as possible and to drive as much Ancillary revenue as possible by pushing to more of an occupancy forward strategy by lowering rate. Obviously we look at that in hindsight as well and think that was certainly the best strategy through Q3. We think that's improved a little bit in October and November. December is always a question mark because of the lack of corporate business, but we are seeing a little bit better balancing between occupancy and rate as we move through Q4.

And one thing I'll add to there too is that where you've seen some of those rate declines, it's been in some of those assets where rates have been very high, primarily driven by that strong leisure demand that we've seen before. So the other part you're seeing, obviously we're rolling up portfolio numbers. So when you think about, we're gaining occupancy in some assets where the rate might be a little bit lower and we're losing some rate in assets we're really driving those high leisure rates. So when you all kind of roll that up together, that's part of it too. And even when you think about impact of these hurricanes, for example, it impacted a lot of our high rated leisure assets that clearly weren't delivering as much to the portfolio as they normally would. So some of that is obviously captured in how we're looking at this hurricane impact on the portfolio, but just that overall shift a little bit into some of the more occupancy and lower rated hotels and some rate declines in some of these higher rated leisure assets that kind of contributes to the overall picture too. Also, thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from online of Austin. Worsement with Key Bank Capital, please go ahead.

Great, thanks and good morning everybody. Sticking to the leisure theme overall and the softness that you referenced, what are kind of the early thoughts for, remaining rate normalization within that segment? I think it's 25, 30% of the portfolio. And then, as I think you highlighted, maybe contributing to some of this margin and weakness you cited, just some early thoughts on kind of how that trend you think goes from here heading into 25. Thank you.

Oh, thanks Austin. You know, I think it's early to say that obviously, because as you know, that's again, that trend in booking window is obviously far shorter than what we're seeing on the group side. We think that having the setup that we have with having pretty strong group base into next year, that's gonna help overall with revenue management going forward. So I think we're optimistic as far as where that stabilization goes and how we can grow from there. Clearly, if you look at market performance yesterday, there's some optimism about economic growth. There hopefully will be a little bit more balanced next year between international outbound versus international inbound. And we've talked about this before. I mean, it's not a big component necessarily of our overall portfolio, but it certainly will help to the extent that there's a little bit more balance there. So I think it's early to really have a good sense for how that's gonna play out in 25. But I think that as we're sitting here today, I think that we're reasonably optimistic about where that's gonna go next year.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ari Klein with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open. Our next question comes from Tyler Batery with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Oh, yeah. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So just thinking a little bit more about the portfolio opportunities to evolve the portfolio in the years ahead. You know, from a strategic perspective, you got a little bit more liquidity here with the expanded credit facilities. How are you thinking about the opportunity for potential acquisitions? I know a lot of moving pieces in the portfolio this year. You just did the asset sale in July, I guess. So how are you thinking about capital recycling and potential opportunities to look at acquisitions here?

Yeah, that obviously hasn't really changed from what we've talked about the last few quarters, right? I mean, we haven't seen a great number of opportunities that get us overly excited, but we think that that's gonna change over the next few years. And we certainly would expect to kind of get back to what we have historically done, which is, you know, growing the portfolio and growing it with assets that we believe are gonna give us greater growth than what the current portfolio looks like. So to the extent that those opportunities are out there, if we wanna be in a position to take advantage of that, clearly on the disposition side, what you've largely see us do in the past is potentially dispose of assets where there may be some capex needs, there may be some other elements that make us believe that the ROI on that capex and the future growth potential isn't quite there. So we'll continue to evaluate the portfolio in that light. So it certainly is our goal to continue to upgrade the portfolio over time, upgrade the earnings growth potential of the portfolio. And we think that there'll be some more opportunities over the next few years. So just having more flexibility and having the great balance sheet and then the strength of balance sheet that we have is gonna be beneficial to that. Now as part of that, as we've also talked about before, clearly the fact that we expect earnings growth coming from an asset like Scottsdale is also gonna put our leverage ratios in a place where we think we can be a little bit more opportunistic than we have been able to be over the last couple of years. So that's really the view that we have. And we're gonna continue to balance that with, like I said in my remarks, with whether there's internal ROI opportunities that we have a strong belief in. Clearly, it's looking at where we're trading from a stock price perspective. And do we think that there's opportunity to buy back shares that will create greater value than necessarily being out there and buying assets. So we'll continue to balance all those aspects and certainly would expect that over time, we'll continue to go on the path that we really have been on over the last 10 years, if you will. Okay, great, thank you.

As a final reminder, if you'd like to ask a question today, it's staff followed by one on your telephone keypad. We have no further questions. So I'd like to turn the call back to Marcel Rabasse for any closing comments.

Thanks Lydia. Thanks everyone for joining us today. I know it's a very busy earning season, busy week overall. So appreciate you joining us. Appreciate the questions today. And we look forward to seeing all or many of you over the next few weeks, particularly at the NAVREED conference. Thanks again and we'll see you there or we'll speak over the next few months. Thank you.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your line.