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YPF Sociedad Anonima
11/10/2025
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Margarita Chun, YPF IR Manager. Thank you for joining us today in our third quarter 2025 earnings call. Today's presentation will be conducted by our chairman and CEO, Mr. Horacio Marin, our finance VP, Mr. Pedro Kearney, and our strategy new businesses and controlling VP, Mr. Maximiliano Weston. During the presentation, we will go through the main aspects and events that shape the quarter results. And then we will open the floor for Q&A session together with our management team. Before we begin, please consider our cautionary statement on slide two. Our remarks today and answers to your questions may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by these remarks. Our financial figures are stated in accordance with IFRS But during the presentation, we might discuss some non-experts measures, such as adjusted EVTA. I will now turn the call over to Horacio. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Margarita, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by highlighting that this was another quarter in which we continued to deliver solid operational performance. Despite the contraction in international prices, we maintained strong profitability levels compared to last year, giving in further operating efficiency and consolidating the tremendous progress that has been achieved in our Shell operations. Revenues amounted to $4.6 billion, 12% below the previous year, in line with the 13% year-on-year decline in the brand price, in addition to other offsetting effects. A just EBITDA reached approximately $1.4 billion, representing a sequential increase of more than 20% while remaining flat versus the previous year. The sequential improvement reflects higher shell production, coupled with the successful strategy of reducing the exposure to conventional mature fields. The year-on-year comparison shows YPFs ability to maintain its profitability despite the contraction in international prices, driven by an improved production mix with a higher proportion of shares and continuous improvement in operational performance. That exit strategy led us to an impressive lifting cost reduction of 28% quarter over quarter and 45% year over year. During the third quarter, our shale oil production increased by 35% interannually, reaching 170,000 barrels per day. More recently, in October, preliminary figures indicate shale oil production expanded by another 12% over the average of the third quarter, totaling around 190,000 barrels per day. This production level is fully aligned with our annual target of shale oil production of roughly 165,000 barrels per day. Moreover, it will enable us to slightly exceed the December 2025 production target of 190,000 barrels per day. Furthermore, the higher shale oil output that generate a remarkable shift in our production mix has allowed us to improve our EBITDA by around $1.3 billion on an annual basis versus two years ago. CAPEX activity continues to be focused on developing our unconventional resources, representing 70% of our total quarterly investment. At the same time, we maintain our focus on achieving further operational efficiency in our shell operation. In that sense, let me highlight that during the quarter, YPF completed the drilling of the longest well ever in Baca Muerta, exceeding 8,200 meters with a horizontal length of nearly 5,000 meters at our Loma Campana block. Moreover, During September, in La Marga Chica, we completed the drilling of a 4,000-meter horizontal well in just 15 days, setting the record as the fastest well ever drilled in Vaca Muerta. Lastly, in early October, we drilled one of the fastest wells in the Barrial Grande block, located in the south half of Vaca Muerta. This well has a lateral length of more than 3,000 meters and was completed in just 11 days. Moving on to our downstream segment during the third quarter, we achieved strong operational performance, reaching the highest processing level since 2009 at 326,000 vials per day. This processing level was 9% higher than last year, representing a solid utilization rate of 97%. In that sense, we are pleased to announce that La Plata Refinery was named Refinery of the Year in Latin America by the World Refinery Association. Additionally, La Plata Refinery ranked in the first quartile across several KPIs in Solomons Global, the final benchmarking based on 2024 results. This recognition represents the results of the successful implementation of the third pillar of our 4x4 plan, our efficiency program, based on operational excellence and technological innovation. On the financial side, free cash flow was negative, as expected, for a total amount of $759 million. This negative free cash flow position is mostly explained by the extraordinary effects related to the recent acquisition of the Shell asset from the total withdrawal for $523 million and the impact of the mature field exit strategy. As a result, net debt increased to $9.6 billion, pushing our net leverage ratio up to 2.1 times. However, excluding the acquisition of total assets and one-off costs related to mature fields, the negative free cash flow performance would have been $172 million, with a net leverage ratio performed at 1.9 times. Additionally, a few days ago, we have successfully retapped our 2031 international bond, issuing $500 at 8.25% yield, the lowest interest rate for the international bond of the last years, replacing and improving our average life and financial costs. On a final note, let me briefly comment on the recent announcement regarding the Argentina LNG project. In early October, within the stage three of the project, we signed a technical FID with Area 9 for a full integrated LNG project of 12 million tons per year, expandable to 18. Recently, last week, we signed a preliminary framework agreement with a new partner, the Arab company, UNOC. In addition, we continue working with the phase one and two. All in all, the project continues to demonstrate the interest of international players in long-term investment in Vaca Muerta, which is essentially for creating a solid sponsorship structure for the development and financing of the project. In summary, during the third quarter, we continue progressing to achieve the ambitious targets set for the year, delivering solid financial and operational results while we continue to strengthen and prepare YPS for new and even more challenging goals in the future. I now turn to Max to go through some details of our operating and financial results for the quarter. Thank you, Horacio, and good morning to you all. Let me begin by expanding on Horacio's comment about the evolution of our oil and gas production. During the quarter, total hydrocarbon production averaged 523,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, declining 4% on a sequential basis and 6% on a year-over-year basis, as a result of the divestment program of mature conventional fields, partially offset by the expansion of our shale production that accounted for approximately 70% of the total output, increasing its portion once again and, as expected, vis-à-vis the previous quarter. Oil production reached 240,000 barrels per day 3% below the previous quarter and 6% down against last year. Nevertheless, it is worth highlighting that shale oil production recorded an impressive growth of 35% against last year and 17% versus the previous quarter, almost neutralizing the conventional production decline driven by the successful exit strategy of our mature conventional fields than accounted to only 14,000 barrels per day in the quarter. Beyond crude, natural gas production totaled 38.4 million cubic meters per day, down 3% on sequential basis. This decline reflects an 18% contraction in conventional production for mature fields, partially mitigated by an expansion of 5% in shale gas production. Regarding prices within the upstream segment, crude oil realization price averaged $60 per barrel in the third quarter, essentially flat on a sequential basis and contracting 12% year over year, aligned with the variations of Brent. Natural gas prices increased by 6% quarter over quarter to an average of $4.3 per MBTU, supported by the seasonal factor included in the planned gas program between the months of May and September. Now, let me dive into the evolution of our shale oil output. YPS reinforces its leading position in the development of Bacamarta oil, accounting for roughly one-third of the country's share. In the third quarter, we continue to deliver a solid performance driven not only from our key core hub assets, but also from contributions from the north and south hub blocks. In the third quarter of 2025, shale oil production delivered an impressive growth rate of 55% when compared to 23 levels. Based on preliminary figures, October production reach an oil time high of 190,000 barrels per day, representing a strong increase of 70% vis-a-vis November 2023 and ahead of schedule. As Horacio previously mentioned, based on the current production levels, we expect to comply with the average production target announced for the full year 2025 of around 165,000 barrels of oil per day and we expect to slightly exceed the exit rate of 190,000 of barrels of oil per day as of December 2025. In the third quarter, we continued with the strategy of developing Vaca Muerta beyond our core hub blocks. In this context, let me point out the success story of La Angostura Sur, our flagship south hub block 100% owned by YPF under an unconventional concession valid through 2059, underscoring the long-term potential of the south of Baca Muerta for YPF. Over the past 12 months, shale oil output from this block has jumped from only 2,000 barrels of oil per day in October of last year to more than 35,000 barrels per day in October this year. representing in financial terms a field with a pro forma annual EVDA of more than $500 million. The results achieved so far are impressive. Moreover, the block expects to reach a production plateau of over 80,000 barrels of oil per day in upcoming years with a very competitive break-even price below the $40 demonstrating resilience amid evolving global dynamics. Finally, wells drilled in the block during the initial stage of development have demonstrated promising productivity levels that underscore their long-term potential, recording an estimated ultimate recovery of around 1.3 million BOE per well, including oil and natural gas. Furthermore, The high potential is also driven by a total inventory of roughly 350 wells, of which less than 15% has been developed. Regarding our upstream cost structure, let me point out that the combined strategy of divesting mature conventional fields and growing our shale business has enabled us to generate significant savings in our average lifting cost of more than 40% over the last two years, moving from $16 per BOE in the third quarter of 2023 to $9 per BOE in the third quarter this year. This remarkable cost improvement was achieved due to the significant shift in our production where unconventional production increased from about 45% of the total output in the third quarter of 2023 to nearly 70% in the third quarter of 2025, while conventional production portion fell from around 55% to 30% in the same period. As a result, since shale lifting costs remained at a very competitive range of $4 to $5 per VOE, YPF was able to improve its cost structure, and therefore its annualized savings would amount to approximately $1.3 billion. YPF will continue and deepen this strategy, supported by the completion of the sale and reversal of mature conventional blocks by the end of 2025, the Andes 1 project, and the sale of the rest of the performing conventional fields, the Andes 2 project. which initial results are expected by the end of this year. Consequently, YPF will become a 100% pure shale player with an efficient lifting cost structure of around $5 per BOE in the near future. Now, let me walk you through the performance of our shale activities. In the third quarter, we drilled 54 horizontal oil wells on a gross basis primarily in operated blocks with a net working interest of 58%, bringing the year to date to 159 horizontal oil wells on a gross basis. This keeps us on track to achieve our full year target of 205 wells in 2025. In terms of completion and tie-in of oil wells, During the quarter, we recorded modest level of activity compared to last year, but year to date, we continued growing. In the third quarter, we completed 63 horizontal oil wells and tied in 64 on a gross basis. However, in the first nine-month period of this year, we completed 186 wells and tied in 187 wells, growing around 20% compared to the same period of last year. In terms of efficiencies within our shale operations, during the third quarter, we continued setting new records on drilling and fracking performance. We averaged 337 meters per day in drilling in our core hub while we recorded 279 stages per set per month on fracking in unconventional blocks, increasing by 7% and 16% respectively when compared to the same quarter of 2024. As we have been flagging in previous calls, this constant improvement in operation metrics is the result of the implementation of our real-time intelligence center and the joint efforts of our technical team and key contractors that work relentlessly to introduce further efficiencies to our operations. Finally, regarding the CAPEX composition within the upstream business, it is worth noting that how YPF managed to significantly transform the portfolio by reallocating investments from conventional to shale activity in the last two years. In this regard, in 2023, investments in conventional business represented 35% of the total upstream portfolio, while in the last 12 months of September 2025, capex in conventional assets only represented 5%. Furthermore, within the shale portfolio, investments in facilities represented a significant portion of total capex over the last two years, which is expected to remain steady in 2026, and begin to gradually decline starting in 2027. Switching to our midstream and downstream segment, the third quarter processing levels averaged 326,000 barrels per day, a record high since 2009, with our refinery utilization at 97%, representing an increase of 9.8% versus the third quarter 2024 and the second quarter 2025 respectively. This remarkable success is mainly driven by the record processing levels of 208,000 barrels per day achieved in September at La Plata Refinery, combined with record production of mill distillates reducing to almost zero full imports. Domestic sales of diesel and gasoline remain strong in the quarter, with dispatch volumes rising 3% quarter on quarter and 6% year over year, reflecting higher demand across all commercial segments, retail, agribusiness, and industrial. Moreover, we managed to modestly expand our leading market share to 57%, which increases up to 60% considering gasoline and diesel produced by YPF and dispatched at third-party gas stations. Furthermore, in the third quarter, YPF achieved an improvement in the premium mix in both gasoline and diesel sales. In terms of prices, During the third quarter, local fuel prices remain broadly aligned with international parities, albeit dropping against the previous quarter based on a very volatile environment. More recently, October preliminary figures show a narrowing of the gap between local fuel prices and improprieties while recovering on a healthy midstream and downstream adjusted AVTA margins of nearly $70 per barrel. Now let me briefly comment on the progress of the quarter regarding the efficiency program for the upstream and downstream businesses. Thanks to the supervision of our upstream real-time intelligence center, we managed to dwell 100% autonomously more than 30 horizontal wells in real time using AI complemented with traditional techniques. While in fracking, we became the first company worldwide to perform 100% autonomous fracture remotely from a real-time intelligence center using predictive algorithms. Additionally, we have successfully executed 24 hours of continuous pumping in our fracking operation during 63 hours fully supervised by our upstream real-time intelligence center. Regarding the downstream segment, as Horacio already noted at the beginning of the call, our La Plata refinery was awarded as the refinery of the year in Latin America. Also, this refinery achieved the first quarter in several KPIs of Solomon's benchmarking, such as net cash margin, return of investment, operational availability, and personal efficiencies categories. Finally, the record high processing levels in our refineries have started generating a surplus of gasoline and meat distillates, allowing YPF to export refined products to neighboring countries and replace imports of YPF and other local refineries. For instance, in the third quarter 2025, YPF exported around 30,000 cubic meters of jet and gasoline to Uruguay. And during the first nine months of the year, we replaced more than 230,000 cubic meters of gasoline and middle distillate imports. Now let me share further details regarding the Argentina LNG project. As briefly anticipated by Horacio, regarding the phase three of the project, In early October, we signed a technical FID with ENI for a fully integrated LNG project of 12 MTPA, expandable to 18 MTPA. And more recently, during the last week's ADDITEX conference in Abu Dhabi, we signed a preliminary framework agreement with a new partner, the Arab company Adnok, that formally announced their intention to join the Argentina LNG project. Moreover, during the quarter, we continued working on the phases one and two. The project considers the development, design, construction, and operation of a fully integrated natural gas LNG plus natural gas liquids and GLS project based on wet gas upstream fields located in the Lacamorta Reservoir. The infrastructure involved in the project includes a liquefaction capacity of 12 mtpa expandable to 18 mtpa through two or three floating energy vessels of six mtpa of capacity each a dedicated 520 kilometers gas pipeline a dedicated 650 kilometers wide grade pipeline for ngls and onshore facilities, including fractionation, storage and port facilities. The capex for the entire project is estimated at around $20 billion, with a potential expansion to $25 billion in both cases, including the financial costs. Leverage of the project is expected to be around 70%, on the total project cost in addition to the upstream investments required to accelerate shale natural gas production. Consistent with present LNG transactions, the project is intended to be financed through non-recourse financing with multiple sources of funding, including ECAs, development banks, and commercial banks as potential anchors of the financial structure. The FID is expected by the first half of next year, while the commercial operations for the first floating LNG is estimated by 2030 and following ones from 2031 and 2032. In summary, Paca Muerta has the scale, the quality, and cost competitiveness to position Argentina as leading global LNG exporter and Argentina's energy project will unlock Bacamorta's full potential, enabling exporting its unconventional shale gas production to the world. Now, I will turn the call over to Pedro.
Thank you, Max, and good morning, everyone. On the financial front, the third quarter ended with a negative pre-capsule position, assets like Caranara and Rincón de la Ceniza blocks to total withdrawal, close at a purchase price of $523 million by the end of September. Moreover, despite the third quarter adjusted bid that surpassed CAPEX deployment and regular interest payment, we recorded negative working capital associated with the discontinued operations in our materials, income tax payments from our subsidiaries, and longer collection dates from natural gas clients and plant gas programs that started to that excluding the one-off items related to M&A transactions and the negative impact of the mature field exit strategy, our negative recap flow will have amounted to $172 million in an environment of lower international prices. Finally, on the liquidity front, our cash and short-term investment totaled at $1 billion by the end of September, remaining essentially flat vis-a-vis the previous quarter. In terms of financing, during the third quarter, we continue progressing on our financial program by securing local loans obtained from relationship banks and by tapping the local capital market at very attractive financing costs. In that sense, during the third quarter, we issued $2 net bonds for a total amount of $300 million at an interest rate of 7.5% and a tenure of two years and a half. We issued $225 million from dollar-cablet bonds with a five-year standard and an interest rate of 8.5% tendered in the international market to local investors. That, combined with a $300 million international bridge loan, allowed us to find the original acquisition of Shale Assets. More recently, during October, we issued $100 million net bond with a 15-month tenor at an interest rate of 6%. Considering these last bond issuance, we issued new local bonds for a total amount of $625 million with an average tenor of three years and an interest rate of 7.65%. Moreover, aiming to reduce the cost of coverage towards debt investors, we scheduled for this month the prepayment of $120 million of our secure notes due 2026, paying in advance the last amortization which matures next year, and thereby redeeming in full the bond ahead of schedule. Finally, let me share two very important news regarding YPS financial strategy. First, during October, We signed an export-backed loan for $700 million with 10 international banks with a three-year tenure and a six-month availability period as a pre-funding strategy for the financing of our 2026 maturity. This transaction was possible after several months of work showcasing YPF's ability to access cross-border funding. The loan was oversubscribed and attracted participation from new banks from Central America and Asia, demonstrating the market support and confidence in YPS. Finally, as Horacio previously mentioned, two weeks ago we successfully returned to the international capital market. After two days of roadshow meetings with more than 40 international investors, we led the recap of our 2031 international bonds of $500 million at a yield of 8.25. Demand for this reopening exceeds all expectations, with international and local investors oversubscribing orders three times, reaching a peak order book demand of $1.5 billion. The proceeds will be used to fully repay the bridge loan for the acquisition of Total Austral shale assets and to finance YPF investment plans. This issuance represented YPF's latest new issue yield on an international bond issuance in the last eight years and improved the maturity profile of itself, extending its average life. So with this, we conclude our presentation and open the floor for questions.
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