2/5/2025

speaker
Adam
Operator

Good morning, all. Good afternoon, all. Welcome to the Elm Brand Q424 earnings call. My name is Adam, and I'll be your operator today. If you'd like to ask a question during the Q&A portion of today's call, you may do so by pressing star 4 by 1 on your telephone keypad. I will now hand the floor to Rasmus Bernd Nielsen to begin. So, Rasmus, please go ahead when you're ready.

speaker
Rasmus Bernd Nielsen
CEO

Yeah, good morning, and thank you for joining us on our conference call. I'm here today with our CFO, Andreas Robben Madsen, and our head of IR, Mads Tinko. This morning, we published our interim report for the fourth quarter, and as usual, I will walk you through the operating highlights, and then Andreas will comment on the financials. Let us move to slide two. Overall, 24 ended better than expected with last claims of just 4.7% and weather-related claims of 2.9%, being in the normal range we expect and somewhat lower than 4.1% in 23. We had strong growth in our personal lines in 24 of 7.7%, while also ending the year with a Q4 growth rate above 7%. Thanks to our strong partnerships with local as well as countrywide banks, we're taking market share in personal lines. We view growth in commercial lines as decent in 2024 with about 3% while ending the year at a high note above 5% growth in Q4. Despite a significant headwind on motor claims, We had an improvement in our undiscounted underlying loss ratio of 120 basis points in 24, while ending the year with 190 basis points improvements in Q4, following profitability initiatives kicking in, along with an uptick in the synergy effects. The synergies continue to take in as planned, with the run rate increasing quarter by quarter. On the cost side, we improved the cost percentage to 18.3% in 2024 as planned, but we did need to make an extra effort to make this happen. Combined with a very satisfactory investment result for 2024, the profit before special cost and tax reached 1.75 billion, somewhat above our latest guidance of 1.58 to 1.68 billion. Our proposed dividend of 0.6 crowns per share and total buybacks of 250 million represent a record high normal distribution of 1.15 billion and the payout ratio of 96%. The coolant transaction is simply paying off on our distributions as well. And now I turn to slide three with our financial highlights for Q4. The insurance service result of Q4 24 of 440 million was a big improvement from 287 million last year, which was driven by much lower weather-related claims, but also with support from strong growth in personal lines of about 7% and underlying improvements on claims. The investment result of 74 million in Q4 was satisfactory, despite being lower than last year, and we ended 24 at a very satisfactory level for the investment result of 439 million. Special cost of 109 million is somewhat lower than last year and contains 52 million for the integration of quota as well as 50 million cost for our FTE reductions announced in October 24. And now I turn to slide four with just a few additional remarks on 24. Here I wanted to highlight the improvement we made with an insurance service result of 1.4 billion despite the headwind we saw on motor in 24 while run-up gains at 1.4% were one percentage point lower in 2024 than in 2023, and a bit below the long-term expected level of 2%. We are repricing on motor, following the uptick in frequency in recent years, as well as average repair cost was up in 2024. We expect the repricing effects to kick in into 2025, while recent additional uptick in motor frequency seems to moderate quite a bit, Thus, we see 24 form a good basis for reaching our targets in 25. And now I turn to slide five and six. Both slides illustrate that we had major claims below our normal level in seven out of the last eight quarters. On a group level, we had major claims of 4.7% on average during the last eight quarters compared to our normal expected level of 7%. Despite some volatility between the quarters, we feel we are in a better overall position or continuing business reflecting the upcoming divestment of energy and marine. However, we will continue to work with a further reduction on the volatility in major claims. On slide seven, you can see the payout ratio for 24 of 96%. The payout ratio is achieved for the actual net profit with some at-backs after tax related to the integration of quota and amortization of intangible assets. We are close to a 100% payout ratio again for 24, as we have been for recent years. This reflects our strong underlying capacity for distributions. We already completed the first buyback of 150 million related to the 24 earnings, while we will soon launch the second tranche of 100 million to run in February. So adding together the remaining ordinary share buyback in February, the 1.6 billion buybacks we expect to do related to the divestment of energy and marine after the expected closing in March, and the DPS of 0.6 crown to be paid in April, we expect a total effect of 2.6 billion energy distributions in 2025. Let's go into the detail with the insurance service result of segments on slide 9. Commercial lines did quite well in the fourth quarter with an insurance service result of 238 million compared to 181 million in fourth quarter last year. The main driver for the improvement was weather related claims dropping to 3.4% in Q4 24 from 10.4 in the quarter the year before, while an 0.8 percentage point drop in the cost ratio health commercial lines as well. Personal lines almost doubled on the insurance service results to 202 million in Q4 compared to the year before. But for personal lines, the improvement was driven by lower weather-related claims as well as a huge improvement in the underlying claims ratio with a drop of about 3% year-on-year. For personal lines, a 1.1% drop in the cost ratio health as well. And now please turn to slide 10. Insurance revenue grew by 6.2% in the quarter with a good growth in both lines. In Q4, growth was 7.2% in personal lines and 5.1% in commercial lines. In personal lines, we are still taking market share due to our strong partnerships, bank partnerships, while repricing related to high motor claims helps as well. Commercial growth is coming back to a level around in the station of 3%. While the 2 percentage points effect from new legislation on workers' compensation comes on top of this in the fourth quarter growth rate of 5.1%. And moving on to slide 11 and the claims ratio. The Q4 claims ratio was down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year driven by much lower weather-related claims. The 6 percentage point drop in weather-related case was countered by a 3% drop in runoff gains. The underlying claims ratio improved by seven cheap basis point year-on-year driven by personal lines, a successful repricing on motor claims, while commercial line was adversely impacted by a lower discounting effect on claims and the remaining headwind on motor, even though we view this headwind as moderating in the quarter. Moving to an undiscounted basis, we reached 190 basis point improvement in underlying claims year-on-year, which is very positive for the improvements we are expecting in 2025. And now please turn to slide 12 and the personal lines. Here you can see the drop in the cost ratio of 1.1 percentage point I mentioned before, following necessary FTE reductions, as well as synergies kicking in. The drop in the claims ratio is a massive 5%, with underlying improvements above 3 percentage point as the main trial, I am quite proud of this and believe we are standing out compared to our peers on the underlying development in personal lines. Please turn to slide 13 and the commercial lines. Again, I have already touched upon the improvements we are seeing in our commercial lines. In Q4-24, we are seeing much lower weather-related claims than Q4 last year, but also much lower runoff gains and an adverse effect from the lower discounting rate on claims. The underlying claims experience is not that different from last year, but still with a moderate headwind promoter. Our expense ratio in commercial line in Q4 is down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. And with these comments, I will now hand over the word to Andreas, who will walk us through synergies, investment, and the guidance.

speaker
Andreas Robben Madsen
CFO

Thank you, Rasmus. Please turn to slide 15. We continue to move forward on our various synergy initiatives according to our plans, and this quarter we have realized 138 million, leading to 460 million harvested in synergies for 2024, slightly above our target of 450 million. 138 million harvested synergies in Q4 is a significant uptick from the 75 million in Q4 of 2023, as we are now seeing more support from IT and administration for the year-on-year uptick. I'm proud to point to the fact that we are moving into 2025 with a run rate for synergies of 550 million, which is not that far from the 600 million targeted in P&L synergies for 2025. And now I move to slide 16 and the investment result. The investment result was a profit of 74 million driven by a positive return from our free portfolio amid a drop in interest rates in Q4, while the matched portfolio delivered a return a bit above zero. Overall, I'm quite pleased with the investment result for 24, which ended close to the $450 million that we guided for. Even though we focused much more on the insurance sales result than the investment result, it's clear that a positive investment outcome like we had in 24 is a nice add-on to our distributions of dividends and buybacks for the year. And now, finally, please turn to slide 18 for the outlook for 25, initially stated on January 22nd. Our guidance includes a technical result excluding run-offs of 1.5 billion to 1.7 billion including expected synergy gains of a total of 600 million. The guidance also reflects continued pricing efforts in commercial as well as personal lines. The cost ratio is expected to be at 17% and the combined ratio excluding the runoff result is expected to be at 85.5 to 87.5. We expect an investment result of 200 million in 2025 based on the current return for the free portfolio and the series of the match portfolio. other activities we guide a deficit of around 125 million consequently group profit excluding special costs is expected to be 1.58 to 1.78 billion before tax excluding one of gains for 25. in addition we guide for the restructuring costs of 175 million of which 25 million relates to the separation of our energy and marine business while we expect depreciation on intangible assets to affect the income statement by approximately $335 million in 2025. Lastly, we expect a result after tax in discontinued activities of $250 million. And with this, I conclude our presentation and hand over the word to our moderator. Thank you.

speaker
Adam
Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question on today's call, please press star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad now to enter the queue. And for parents to ask your question, please ensure your headset is fully plugged in and unmuted locally. Star followed by one. And our first question today comes from Asbjorn Mork from Danske Bank. Asbjorn, please go ahead.

speaker
Asbjørn Mork
Analyst, Danske Bank

Yes, thanks for taking my questions and congratulations on a strong set of numbers. Basically, first of all, trying to understand a little bit the underlying improvement, the 190 basis points for the group undiscounted, considering the impact you also mentioned from the health and accident business and the sort of the impact in Q4 on the premium side versus the claims, which if I understood you correctly, were still there in Q3. So I guess that's around 50 basis points of sort of switch for the underlying into Q4 or tailwind on the underlying for the group. and hence 100 basis points or 110 basis points for the commercial businesses. Is that correctly understood that we should sort of adjust for that to get to the real underlying, so to speak?

speaker
Mads Tinko
Head of Investor Relations

Yeah. Hi, Astrid and Mrs. Mads. I think it sounds a bit high. I mean, we're talking about a 15 million DKK extra in Q4 stemming from Q3. So we have a double effect of 30 million, which would normally be 15 million in Q4. And I think in the commercial lines, that would produce a positive or a drop in the underlying loss ratio of around 70 basis points. So on a group level, 30 to 40 basis points help from that.

speaker
Asbjørn Mork
Analyst, Danske Bank

All right. That was a little free kick. And then if we then look at the 190 and adjust for this, I guess still for the true underlying, you are seeing somewhat better underwriting momentum than what you at least sort of soft guided for at Q2 and Q3. So what is it that has sort of gone better here in Q4? Is it that the price acceptance for clients has been better? Or is it early signs? If we look at the motor claims, for instance, the last three months have been pretty benign. Is that the trend we're starting to see coming through? Or could you give a little bit more flavor on what it is actually that is sort of on the margin doing better than you thought three, four months ago?

speaker
Andreas Robben Madsen
CFO

Yeah. Andreas here. I'll try to answer that. I think we have a few things which have moved in the good direction. In general, we've had a good, we've had another solid quarter in cubes for private lines, also where some of the, you know, apart from most of some of our, a lot of our other lines have had a quite good strong quarter. which is a bit better than we would normally see. And then on top of that, I think commercial lines, we are beginning to see effect of the repricing come in. We also see them, we see motor frequency moderate a bit now, and they come in almost flat if we adjust for interest rates on Q4. So even though we still have some headwind on motor, I think, we are beginning to see maybe the first signs of also the part of the renewal we've had in one cent for the last quarter. We do see some tailwind coming in, maybe a bit sooner than we had originally expected.

speaker
Asbjørn Mork
Analyst, Danske Bank

Okay, fair enough. If it then comes to the private lines and the five percentage points improvement to the claims ratio year-over-year, is there a retention risk here that you have repriced more than maybe your peers or that you have repressed for a little bit of a more adverse claim scenario than what we're seeing right now. Do you see an increased risk going forward here?

speaker
Rasmus Bernd Nielsen
CEO

Thanks, Rasmus here. No, we don't see that. We have had this very good momentum for the last, I will almost say, many quarters. So I don't see that as a major risk. We also see our competitors that they really increase prices, and some are even doing it higher than we are doing. So I think it's a moderate risk.

speaker
Asbjørn Mork
Analyst, Danske Bank

Let's say the motor claims numbers that we've seen for November, December, and January, that trend sort of continues. Does this change your pricing policy in 2025? I guess you have been repricing for a continued sort of deterioration, or at least a slight improvement, but still some adverse scenario on this. So is there anything there we should be aware of?

speaker
Rasmus Bernd Nielsen
CEO

I think we still see increases that are more moderate, and I think it's too early today to say how that will affect in the last half of 2025, but we definitely we look forward to see more moderation on the pricing height, so to say.

speaker
Asbjørn Mork
Analyst, Danske Bank

Okay. And then a final question from my side. On the PIM model, you mentioned now in the Q4 report that the process is ongoing. You have, of course, discussed it a couple of times, but now you actually write it. Is there a change in why you put it sort of in text and this is sort of like you being extremely firm on this to a level where you can sort of put it in the report and be actually able to release any estimate on that and when we should expect that to come back to shareholders?

speaker
Andreas Robben Madsen
CFO

Yeah, Asbjorn, we put it in the report because I know that we verbally mentioned this a number of times, but we feel for full transparency for all our stakeholders, we felt it was good to put it in the report so that was out there for everybody to see in writing where we are in the process. But we're still too soon to be able to give any estimates for the effect.

speaker
Asbjørn Mork
Analyst, Danske Bank

Okay, that's fair. Final question on the renewable sale. Since the date is very fixed in early March, what is it we're waiting for that deal to close? Is there any deal risk at all?

speaker
Andreas Robben Madsen
CFO

Yeah, well, we don't see any deal risk. We are waiting for the final part of the regulatory improvements, the one coming from the Norwegian FSA, and we still expect that to be within time so that we can close in the beginning of March. And there's no sort of, there's been no problems arrived in the process so far. We're still waiting for the final approval, but basically we are where we were expecting to be at this point in time.

speaker
Asbjørn Mork
Analyst, Danske Bank

All right, thanks a lot.

speaker
Adam
Operator

The next question comes on Jan-Erik Gjelland from ABG. Jan-Erik, your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jan-Erik Gjelland
Analyst, ABG

Thank you for taking my question as well. The first one is on the sale here. What happened to the... Is it a run-off gain? You will sort of write in the report that gives you this fantastic sort of discontinued earnings for... these two, three months of 250 million. Secondly, the growth in your market share in the private area looks to be stemming from your banking operation or banking channels. Could you shed some more light into who you are taking clients from and if it's price driven or is it new volume or is it sort of added volumes from your clients? On the price increases in general, you mentioned last year that you had repricing for 100 million each of profitable growth in the commercial as well as the private lines. How are you doing on those numbers? If you could shed some more light into how well you have been succeeding in those successful repricing? And finally, on the PIM model, as Osbjørn talked about, when could we expect anything? Is it in the second half of this year, or is it early 2026 that you would think that you could get some approval from the regulator? Thank you.

speaker
Andreas Robben Madsen
CFO

Hi, Henrik. Andreas here. I'll start out with the first part around our discontinuing operations guidance. moving parts in there. We have the, I'm not sure this is the right English term, but we do have the depreciation of the goodwill relating to the sale. We have the depreciation of also the other immaterial assets, the brand and the customer relations. Then we have the you know, the actual payment from God in there also. And then as you rightly mentioned, we have the, let's say, the profit we expect for the business as such until March 3rd. And in the end, we also have some, a minor part coming from some costs related to, you know, the sale we're handling this year also. So there are some moving parts in there and that all sums up to this, after tax number of 250 million for the year, all expected to be booked in Q1. Okay.

speaker
Rasmus Bernd Nielsen
CEO

So that was me, and then I think Rasmus would take that. I can take your second question about the growth in personal lines, and you're right, very much of that can be connected to our bank partnerships, and we are definitely undertaking market shares in this area. I think we have a solid product. We have a very good relationship with this bank. It's now kicking in as one quarter takes the other. We are improving ways of working. It's becoming more digital to arrange meetings. We are better in having the meetings, desk cancellations and all that. So step by step, this partnership is just becoming stronger and stronger. And as they have a 40% market share of the total banking activities in Denver, we really have good growth opportunities in this area. I think as we had phrased before, but it is definitely kicking in quarter by quarter. And who are we taking our customers from? I think it's very much spread around all of our competitors. It's not to say that it is one or the other. It's definitely spread out. The bank partnerships are very strong in Jutland, as an example, with Finor and Sparkas in Denmark. It's also coming in in Copenhagen, in Jylland, with Arbetslandspark coming in strong. It has now been part of this family for some period. So all in all, it's working out exactly as we want it to work out.

speaker
Andreas Robben Madsen
CFO

Okay. I can try to get a data from the repricing also compared to what we had, our profitability initiatives and what we had been communicating earlier. I think in the overall status is that in terms of round numbers, we've been talking about around 100 million coming from both, yeah, from personal lines and commercial lines respectively. And I think that is... still a good estimate for the proportion of benefits we see coming and what we have sort of set in motion. And we don't see, and back to some of the other questions, we've seen, as some of you noticed, that maybe we've seen a moderation now in motor frequencies. We still feel that's too early to sort of see a structural. If that was to materialize, later on as a structural benefit, then we would take action. But for now, we still feel we have the right plans in motion.

speaker
Mads Tinko
Head of Investor Relations

Okay. Daniel, you had a question on the PIMP timing as well. And we write in the report, we say it's a process for Q1 to Q3 2025. So we don't want to put any pressure on on anybody, but I think I mean by the end of Q3 we would expect an outcome of the process.

speaker
Jan-Erik Gjelland
Analyst, ABG

Okay, very clear. Thank you.

speaker
Adam
Operator

The next question comes from Martin Burke at SEB. Martin, your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Martin Burke
Analyst, SEB

Thank you so much. Perhaps a couple of small questions on my side. Spatial cost is a little higher than anticipated. What's the reason for that? Also, what's the reason for, and also your guidance for 2025 and spatial cost also seems in the high end. If you look at discounted activities, additional activities, what's happening in the quarter. And then finally, when I look at your your tax rate, I guess your average tax rate over the recent eight quarters has been like 34%, which is a lot higher than the statutory tax rate in Denmark for financial companies. Are there any moving parts of this tax rate that we should be aware of going forward?

speaker
Andreas Robben Madsen
CFO

Yeah, I'll try to go through that step by step. First question was around the special pass Q4, I think we more or less landed where we have been expecting. We had, let's say, we have 52 million coming from the ordinary integration, and then we have the 50 million on top. We also communicated earlier related to the layer, you know, the reorganization and SCE takeout we had in October. So I think that's in line with what we said earlier. And you're right that if we move to 25, with the guidance there, 175 million in total, 25 of that has to do with GAAP, energy and marine, and that's in line with what we've... We've never been very specific on timing, but we have communicated a total cost of around 50 related to the separation. Some of that already being... Has already been held in 24, and some relating around 25 million to 25. So that's more or less also in line. So if you add it all up in integration for the, when we're done in 25, we will be at just below 1.1 billion for the integration as such. That's a bit higher than the 1 billion in round numbers we started out communicating, but just below 1.1 billion for the integration as such. And then we've had this need to do further on costs along the way among them the 50 million we just did in the end of last year so I think that that should be that's at least where we are now for for integration and special costs then you asked also to the discontinued activities as I recall that was related to the q4 result Martin or maybe you could repeat that I'm doing why

speaker
Martin Burke
Analyst, SEB

What's happening this quarter under discontinued duties? It's coming out a little lower than what we had hoped.

speaker
Andreas Robben Madsen
CFO

I think we've not had a fantastic quarter, but we are doing net profits. In after-tax terms, this is not too far from what we would normally see. And then there are also these costs that I mentioned before. I think there's about just below 20 million of costs being booked

speaker
Martin Burke
Analyst, SEB

uh related to the separation uh in q4 also okay gotcha that that explains it and there's one lefty on them on on your text rate which is my book is is very high and it's been very high for well now eight nine quarters in a row and i'm wondering why that is the case yeah and i think we do have some moving parts there also um just to give you sort of the the flavor of the the moving parts

speaker
Andreas Robben Madsen
CFO

We have a difference in tax rate between our parent company and Mindybarn AS with a tax rate of 22. And then we have almost all of our profit losses are in the insurance company with a tax rate of 26. Then you can also, on top of that, have some fluctuations, which I can come back to. But if you look at the structural thing, we do see an effect from having the depreciation of intangibles as the main item in the part of the perimeter, which is only on 22% deduction. That's not really affecting anything in terms of cash value because it's related to the immaterial assets and the depreciation there. On top of that, we can also see fluctuations when we have, as we have had last year also, if we see losses on some of our strategic investments which are placed in the mother company, that will also be at a lower, then we have a loss if that's the way it goes, which has been the case for the last year. We've seen some losses there, which also are deducted on 22. That could also be gained in other periods. But I think most of, just to sum up, I think most of that sort of what you're seeing is from the depreciation of intangibles in the mother company.

speaker
Martin Burke
Analyst, SEB

So if you said in my chair, what kind of tax rate would you put in 2025?

speaker
Andreas Robben Madsen
CFO

Well, I think if you're looking at, depending on how you build your model, but if you're looking at what actually generates... Report tax rate. For the full 2025, I think I have to get back to that, Martin. Okay. But for the part generating actual cash in the insurance company, it's 26. Okay. So we can make a follow-up if you need more on that item, and maybe we can spell it out a bit clearer for you on a different session.

speaker
Martin Burke
Analyst, SEB

Okay, excellent. Thank you.

speaker
Adam
Operator

As a reminder, that's star followed by one on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Matthias Nielsen from Nordea. Matthias, your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Matthias Nielsen
Analyst, Nordea

Thanks a lot, and congratulations on the strong underlying results this quarter. So my question is firstly on motor. Like now we have seen motor frequency coming down and then recently, as far as I remember, like a year ago, we had this double whamming effect of both the frequency increasing, but also triggering basic repair shops and distressed supply chains, which also caused the claim inflation, like the cost of repairing them to spike quite a lot. How do you see this year round and at this time? Have you already seen any benefits from that, or is it something that you expect to see in the early 2025 that the cost inflation is also coming down on claims?

speaker
Andreas Robben Madsen
CFO

I can take that, Mathias. I think you're very much right in the overall picture. We've seen frequency come up for some time. Now, very recently, we see maybe a slight moderation. What happened in especially the second part of 24 was that also repair costs came up and that pushed average claims up. We're still not seeing a much different picture there. We're still at these higher levels. You might argue that in a blue sky scenario, over time, if frequency comes down a bit, and we still, just to repeat that, we don't feel that that is structural yet, that we can make that call. But if that was to happen, then we would also expect over time the average claims to come down as there was less pressure on supply chains. But for now, we feel we have the plans in motion we need, and we haven't seen anything that we consider structural at this point in time.

speaker
Matthias Nielsen
Analyst, Nordea

Okay, thanks a lot on that. And then the second question on competition, like how do you feel the competition is out there right now? Like earlier this week I saw one of your competitors changing the way they do the list prices by changing the way they do discounts just to appear cheaper on the list prices than, for example, you on certain products. Have you seen the competition like intensifying over the past quarter or how should we think about that?

speaker
Rasmus Bernd Nielsen
CEO

Yeah, I think just to put it out, I think we have quite tough competition at the moment in general, especially in the personal lines, but also in the SMV and lower lines of commercial. And there are always different ways to do it. And we're doing it our way. It's working quite good at the moment with our partnerships in the banks, as I just mentioned before. Yeah, I cannot comment on what others are doing and how they do that, but I can just say that the customers, they know more and more about prices. They have better views into policies and all that that they have had ever before. So you cannot really do anything to hide it for the customers at all. So competition is quite tough out there, just to mention it.

speaker
Matthias Nielsen
Analyst, Nordea

But is it getting worse or is it just the same as it has been for quite some time?

speaker
Rasmus Bernd Nielsen
CEO

I think you have a point. I think it's more or less the same. I don't know exactly, but I have a feeling that being a small competitor is by definition in terms of all the AI coming in and whatever will be tougher and tougher to be small and not having the scale. There's a lot of... There's a lot of compliance issues coming in for the European Union and all that. Everything takes time, it takes cost, and it will end up in higher prices.

speaker
Matthias Nielsen
Analyst, Nordea

Thank you. That was very clear. And then my last question was sort of a technical one. On the 250 million in resource from the discontinued operations in 2025, how much is that actually impacting the submissive ratio? All of it, or is it like it sounds like it was quite a few of accounting accounting profits rather than cash profits. So, is there any change in how we should think about that on this, obviously, Rachel?

speaker
Andreas Robben Madsen
CFO

I can start out, and then Matthew, if you can help me. But I think the overall picture is that we have a lot of moving parts. Some of the parts I went through are handled also in terms of taxation in a different way, some of it being taxed on ordinary tax rates, some not being tax deductible, for instance, the goodwill depreciation. So, in effect, what we communicated when we started out was that we had a total price, so to say, of 1.6 billion, and we committed to pay 1.6 billion because that was our estimate for the capital effect we would be able to pay out after the, and that still holds. So, and then within the 250 million, I can add the clarity that we, for now, have not had a fantastic quarter in energy and marine. So we do have, that's a small number in the big picture here, but we do have at least an after-tax loss of 50 million we've put on top of what we would normally expect for that. But most of what we see here is not actually impacting the capital's position. There I would go back to the 1.6 billion and that's more or less what we are, that's also what we'll be paying out in the rights issue following the divestment.

speaker
Mads Tinko
Head of Investor Relations

Yeah, I think I can perhaps Perhaps at a bit, I mean, I'll say it in a bit different way also with, um, I mean, you have, of course, you have, um, you have money coming in from God on, on, on equity as well as liquidity, but that's going out again. Then you have a disposal of, uh, of, uh, intangible assets, but that is already deducted in capital. So you're not really seeing any difference on that in the solvency ratio. And then you have a bit of pluses and minuses in the line.

speaker
Matthias Nielsen
Analyst, Nordea

That was all for me. Thanks a lot for your answers.

speaker
Adam
Operator

The next question comes from from HSBC. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

speaker
HSBC Analyst
Analyst, HSBC

Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. So the first one that I have is on the commercial book again. Are you able to quantify the quantum of price increases that you were able to put through on your commercial book at the recent renewal in January? And in conjunction to that, are you seeing change in terms of customer behavior? Are you seeing any pressure in terms of customer retention when you're able to put through those rate increases? The second one would be on your reinsurance program would be would be helpful if you could provide some color in terms of have you made any changes with respect to your insurance coverage at the recent renewal period? And the last one would be on your investment results target of $200 million. Can you provide us the underlying macro assumptions that you have baked into that number with respect to interest rate movement or equity market movement? Thank you.

speaker
Rasmus Bernd Nielsen
CEO

Yeah, hello, Rasmus here. I can take the first one in terms of commercial and the rates. As Andreas mentioned before, we had the first round, 1st of October, and we actually, as you see in our numbers, it ended up quite well, and we had a quite nice increase in our accounts in commercial in fourth quarter. Now, the big one is, of course, 1st of January, and where we also increasing prices also significant in some areas. It's a little bit late to conclude, but we feel that we are in a very good position in terms of customers staying with us. So retention is good and we're getting the rates we are asking for. So I would say from what we have seen so far, all in all it is very positive in the commercial part.

speaker
Andreas Robben Madsen
CFO

Yeah. And in terms of reinsurance, we have more or less the same. There's no major changes to our program or structure going into 2025. So we still have the same retention limits for all our major programs. So nothing new to report in terms of structure for the reinsurance. Then I think you asked also around the investment result. As you may recall, our expectations on the investment result stems from a combination of us assuming that the hedge part of the portfolio, which is most of the portfolio, we will on average reach a zero expected return for that. And then the return that we generate will be from what we call the free portfolio. And we've come a bit down in annual expectations here, arriving at the 200 million. That stems from two, let's say, effects. One of them, the major one being that rates have come down quite a bit. We still have a lot of bonds and also illiquids, which are tied up to interest rates. So we're not heavy on equities. So we do follow sort of the overall interest rates expectations in the macro, and that's what pushed down a bit. Also, we will also see a reduction in the capital of the free portfolio coming after the guard divestment because some capital is freed up from that, as we talked into earlier. So those two effects are what's pushing down the annual returns for investments a bit.

speaker
HSBC Analyst
Analyst, HSBC

That's very helpful. Thank you so much.

speaker
Adam
Operator

The final reminder that star followed by one. We have no further questions, so I'll hand it back to the management team for any closing remarks.

speaker
Rasmus Bernd Nielsen
CEO

Yeah, thank you very much for having your questions. We hope that you will have a nice day. Thank you.

speaker
Adam
Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you very much for your attendance. You may now disconnect your lines.

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