Abg Sundal Collier Asa

Okay, good morning all, and a warm welcome to ABG Sundahl Collier's Q4 result presentation. Before we kick off the presentation, I would like to mention that we will, as usual, have a Q&A session after the presentation. And should you want to raise a question, please use the Q&A function in Teams, and we will answer all your questions in turn. We ended the year. and we are entering 2026 from a position of strength. We have continued to build momentum during the year and we have proven our ability to deliver with market conditions in 2025 sometimes being helpful and sometimes being anything but helpful. We have continued to focus on what we can influence namely how we advise our clients, how we execute on our advice and our own growth strategy, and how we resolve situations that arise either because of market conditions or client-specific circumstances. And we have continued to focus on ensuring our own profitability, also short-term, enabling us to make long-term investments to take investment costs that will drive long-term profitability. Business-wise, we are happy to observe continued strength within our debt capital markets operations and not least within our M&A operations with record high revenues for us in 2025. Conditions in equity capital markets have gradually improved during the year and IPO activity picked up somewhat in 2025, especially in Sweden. Even though IPOs tend to be the product that is the most sensitive in our product portfolio to general volatility, either economically or politically induced, we observed that our backlog when it comes to IPOs is in a better shape entering 2026 versus 2025. We continue to improve our firm to become the Nordic Investment Bank of Choice, the Investment Bank of Choice for clients, talents and investors. We continue to focus on strengthening our positions in our core operations, as well as developing our business by broadening our offering to new client groups, such as private banking and alternative investments. On that note, strengthening our position, we are pleased with having succeeded in joining forces with FIH partners in Denmark. the by far top ranked independent financial advisor in Denmark for a decade. And we are doing that at a point in time with all-time high revenues in our current Danish operations. By continuing on this track, we are committed to our long-term targets of increasing revenue per head by at least 20% versus the 2024 level. and to deliver a mid-cycle operating margin of at least 25%. So, in the fourth quarter that just ended, this resulted in us, if we flip to the next slide, looking at the numbers, please, delivering revenue growth of 15% to NOC 720 million. This growth is a result of especially in the quarter, a strength in our M&A operations. But looking at the entire year, we have had solid contributions from all geographies and product areas as well as sectors. In the full year, we ended up with revenues of 2.172 billion NOC, a top-line growth of 12%. With, as alluded to earlier, broad contribution from all geographies, with Denmark delivering all-time higher revenues and solid growth from both Sweden and Norway as well. Continuing with our operating margin, that increased with two percentage points from 21 to 23%. that includes the 23 percent includes costs for setting up our new business initiatives private banking and alternative investments and that had a negative effect on the operating margin of some three percentage points in 2025 versus some two percentage points in 2024 We delivered earnings per share at 26 EUR in the quarter, up from 21 EUR, an increase of 24%, highlighting the operational leverage in our business. Year to date, our EPS ended up at 66 EUR versus 56 EUR on a fully diluted basis last year, including the investments once again in our new business initiative having a negative impact on EPS by 7 EUR this year and 6 EUR last year respectively. So let's continue looking at the macro and market backdrop. The markets continued to be supported by low volatility in the quarter, even though we had some spikes in the quarter with VIX hitting well above the 20 level a couple of times. introducing short-term hesitation amongst the investor community. But we are at a low level and we feel that the conditions have stabilized. Credit conditions have also continued to improve. Credit spreads, as illustrated on the right hand side of this chart, continue to tighten and we have seen the very strong conditions in debt capital markets in queue for continuing into the start of this year. So, with strong credit conditions, low volatility and a market that seems to be very reluctant to take everything that is stated from a political point of view as granted. We feel that we have stronger conditions for us to deliver looking at the market situation 2026 versus 2025. Continuing with the next slide and looking at how our main markets within investment bankings have performed in the Nordics during the year and the last couple of quarters and starting off with the equity capital markets. The headline number is of course impressive with an increase of 77 percent to 130 9 billion knock-in in total volumes in the fourth quarter 2025. This is slightly distorted by one or two large transactions, the biggest one being the 60 billion DKK rise issue in Ørsted in Q4, a transaction that is typically not part of our addressable market. Excluding that and maybe one other one-off so to speak transaction ECM volumes were actually down both in the quarter and full year as you can see excluding these rights issues on the left hand side of the chart. Debt, capital markets, on the contrary, the headline number is very representative for the actual underlying performance in markets being very, very strong. 2025 was a record year in terms of volumes overall. And we are pleased with our own position within DCM, strengthening our position in Sweden to become the number one player in DCM high yield 2025. Uptick and recovery seen from 2021 is to some extent, of course, cyclical, but not only that, it is a structural growth we are witnessing. The very vibrant Nordic DCL market has attracted many non-Nordic issuers as well, looking to tap into the opportunities offered here. And finally, looking at the M&A market, that continues to be, well, stable or muted, depending on how you want to look at it. In the absence of the expected pickup in activity levels, such as structured processes, not the bilateral ones we've seen dominating the arena so far. number of transactions is still rather muted. Volume is actually down by 5% in the quarter year-on-year and more or less flat up by 4% over full year last year. Okay, moving over looking to the next slide on how we performed against this backdrop in our corporate financing operations. We delivered revenues at 736 million NOC in the full year, which is down by 7% versus 2024. As you can see on the right hand side of this slide, we closed numerous transactions during the quarter, with a widespread between both ECM, DCM sectors and geographies. A couple of IPOs during the quarter, one in India for Orkla and one in Norway and lots of secondary placings. Our DCM operation was highly active, as you can see, in the quarter with quite a few large transactions completed. Moving over to the next slide, please, looking at how we did in our M&A business. We delivered what can be, I'd say, best described as a stunning set of numbers. Revenue accelerated during the year with Q4 ending up at 334 million NOC, up by 55% versus Q4 last year. And we reached a revenue level of 829 million NOC for the full year, which is up by 44%. This is by far a record in terms of M&A revenues for us outperforming the general activity in the market. And as you can see on the right-hand side of this slide, we closed quite a few high-profile transactions during the quarter, yet again with a decent spread between sectors and contribution from all geographies. Let's continue with looking at our brokerage and research operations. The headline number in terms of revenues has been remarkably steady over the last four or five years, with revenues around the 600 million mark. We actually reached above the 2021 post MIFID world record level with 606 million knock in revenues which is up by seven percent here year on year but looking under the hood there are differences as always between our different desks locations and products with Norway equity sales yet again delivering impressive growth, not least from new brokerage clients and I'd say stability elsewhere. I would also like to highlight the strong performance within our research department. We cover some 400 companies, which is amongst the highest of all Nordic investment banks. which is crucial for our ability to deliver on both brokerage and IPOs over time, of course. In the latest Prospera survey, we achieved top three positions in 23 sectors, including the number one position in important sectors such as bank and financials in Sweden and shipping, seafood, materials, real estate and construction in Norway. Well done all. Okay, so over to the next slide, please. Looking at our headcount, that has been rather or very stable, I'd say, over the last couple of years. We have a continued focus on growth of front staff. We have in these numbers included our new business initiatives. of which private banking is the biggest one, which is in line with our strategy. But the average year-to-date of 332 FT's is basically flat versus same period last year. We are ready to grow that number now. We have meanwhile continued to slim our support and operations division slightly, and we will continue to focus on leveraging our well-invested platform further, not least as illustrated by the acquisition of FIH in Denmark. And as you can see on the right-hand side of this slide, We have come a long way in our target of improving revenue per head by at least 20% versus 2024. The task ahead now is to keep and improve that level slightly while increasing number of FTEs, mainly on front operations. That is the most important definition for us when it comes to continued profitable growth. Okay. Let's continue looking at our operating cost level. That increased by 10% to 1,681,000,000 NOK, which is an increase by, yeah, 10% basically. While we have kept the compensation to revenue ratios steady around 55 plus percent, The increased profitability obviously is the main driver for the increase in costs due to our variable remuneration model. IT systems where inflation comes with a bit of a lag, increased costs for IT systems and increased activity levels on our front. operation contributes further to that slight cost increase, as do our investments in our new ventures, even though the year-on-year effect is marginal. But looking at our underlying fixed cost base in Q4, eliminating the still negative effects from the weaker NOC, especially in relation to SEC, The underlying cost base is flat year on year. So let's flip to the next slide and talk a bit about our capitalization and the proposed dividend, which is NOK 55 EUR per share. That proposal reflects our commitment to distribute excess capital back to shareholders through cash dividends and buybacks. It should be noted that the core capital effect from the acquisition of FIH, the Google effect, is some 100 million NOP or 18 EUR per diluted share. 55 EUR in dividend allows for both a healthy cash distribution and buybacks while maintaining a solid capitalization, as you can see on the right hand side of this graph. So, before we conclude, I would like to draw your attention to our acquisition of FIH Partners. By joining forces with FIH, we will significantly strengthen our position in Denmark. We are joining forces with a firm that is number one within Danish M&A and also has been ranked as the number one financial advisor in Prospera for basically the last decade. This is a firm that has closed over 200 transactions with some 110 billion euros in daily value. We are welcoming some 27 professionals to the ABG family with a combined plus 200 years of experience. If we continue with the next slide, we are joining forces also with FIH at a point in time where, as I alluded to earlier, we are delivering our best year ever in Denmark. From our combined number one position in Denmark we can now offer a much broader product portfolio such as bonds or IPOs for instance to a larger client group. We are convinced we are a perfect fit with both of us having a strong partnership culture and eagerness to win. We take nothing for granted but our own ability to deliver top-notch services and advice to our clients as well as potential clients. By joining forces with FIH, our clear ambition is to fortify the number one position within Danish M&A and build a market-leading position within ECM and ECM. This is exactly in line with our strategic ambitions to strengthen our positions in core markets and to leverage our already well invested platform. So with that, I'd like to summarize the key takeaways from Q4. and the full year. We had a strong year and a strong quarter not least. In the quarter revenues up by 15% and 12% for the full year. This year the main driver behind our growth both in the quarter and full year is our remarkably strong M&A operations. Having said that, ECM conditions improved during the year and the IPO window reopened, particularly in Sweden. ECM continued on a high level and we kept our strong position overall in the Nordic high yield segment. Brokerage and research continued to deliver stable and solid revenues throughout the year. we demonstrated our ability to execute on our strategy with the acquisition of the FIH at the same time as ABG Denmark delivered its best year ever. The development over the last couple of years with better contribution and stronger positions across all geographies has strengthened our diversified business model further. So with With that, I'd like to open up the floor for questions, should there be any. Yes, we have received one. That is, what is your current pipeline visibility? Yeah, that's a very good question. A pipeline is one thing in terms of gross numbers, the absolute number. Quality is another thing and I think the best way to measure quality high versus low is to look at how diversified the pipeline is. Diversified in terms of products, sectors and geographies. And from that point of view I'd say that we are in a better shape pipeline wise than in a long time. As always, the obvious disclaimer is that market conditions short term can obviously be a bit of an obstacle. But once again, having such a diversified pipeline entering 2026 makes me comfortable. We are on a on a continued path to growth. Thank you. I believe that was it from the audience today. OK. Yours truly and Kristian Fiksen, our CEO in Norway, are ready to take on any questions should you have any follow-ups. We will be talking to media and be stuck short term but please do not hesitate to reach out. I'd suggest that you contact Anna Tropp if you have any further follow-ups and we will try to revert as soon as possible. Thank you for tuning in this morning.