The A2 Milk Company Limited

Thank you for standing by and welcome to the A2 Milk Company Limited first half 24 results call. All participants are in a listen only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you'll need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. David Akers, Head of Investor Relations and Sustainability. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining the call today. Starting on slide three. On the call today, we have David Ward-Lucy, our Managing Director and CEO, and Dave Musk at our CFO. We also have leaders from our regions, Lee Zhao, Johansson Aratne, Eleanor Corr, and Kevin Bush. The team will present our results and outlook, and there'll be time for questions at the end. I'll hand over now to David Ward-Lucy.

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us all. I'd like to get through today, so I'll start with a few key messages. Firstly, we're pleased to report a positive interim result today, with revenue growth at 3.7%, EBITDA up 5%. We're in total IMF sales, despite another double-digit decline in the China IMF sales. The result of the NAICS will actually be an important milestone, becoming a top five brand in the China Atlantis market overall, including China Laser. In doing so, our brand health metrics reach new highs, supported by record levels. During the period, we successfully launched our new GDP registered China label product, and we are pleased to confirm that the transition is ahead of plan. Encouragingly, after several periods of decline, English label sales stabilised in the first half of 24 compared to the second half of 23. We also have additional English label products coming to market shortly, which Johan will cover later in the presentation. Finally, our revenue growth guidance for FY24 has improved relative to our prior outlook statements. Moving to slide five, which summarises our financial results. Revenue for the period was $812 million, up 3.7%. EBITDA was $113 million, up 5%, with an EBITDA margin of 13.9%, up 0.2 percentage points. Our net profit after tax was $85 million, up 15.6%, and our EPS was up 18.6% to 11.8 cents. Our net cash position at the end of the period was $792 million, up $35 million compared to June 23, and our operational cash conversion improved to 87%. Revenue growth in the half was again driven by our China segment, which was up 16.5%, while our ANZ segment sales were down 24%, reflecting the change in our distribution strategy that we've communicated previously. US sales were up 8.6%, while NPM sales were down 4.7%. From a category perspective, we grew total IMF sales by 1.5%, with China label sales up 10.4%, and English label sales down 6.9%. Liquid milk sales in ANZ and the US were up 1.5% and 7% respectively, and other nutritionals were up 48.5%. Moving to slide six, In addition to our financial results, I'm particularly proud of what our team has achieved operationally in the half. We grew total China IMF sales in a market that was down almost 14%, achieved the top five brand position in the market and improved our key business health indicators. In China label IMF, we've achieved record market share and new highs in brand health and launched our new GB registered IMF product successfully. In English Label, we stabilized sales on the adjacent half and developed our O2O distribution partnership with UO, which is the market leader in the channel. We also progressed development of two new IMF products with MVM and a new commercial supply chain partner, targeting launch of the first product in the second half of FY24. We also commenced production of A2 Platinum Stage 4 product with MVM and another new commercial supply chain partner. Over the page on slide 7, we accelerated growth in other nutritionals and developed two new fortified tub products to be launched shortly. In ANZ liquid milk, we continued to develop our lactose-free penetration in Australia and progressed the major upgrade of our Kyogren facility. In the US, we significantly improved profitability, commenced distribution of IMF product while investing in long-term FDA approval. And lastly, we advanced our sustainability program with the commissioning of New Zealand's first high-pressure electrode boiler at MVM, powered by certified renewable energy, and achieved our animal welfare certification and farm environmental plan targets. Turning to the next slide, the major highlight of the half was the successful launch of our new GB registered China label IMF product, which has been an enormous project for our China team and our strategic partner, China State Farms. Following the approval received from Samar in June 23 and commencing production, we started shipping to distributors in October and retailers and major platforms from November. We did an advanced soft launch through our flagship online stores in October to make the product available to our consumers who wanted to transition earlier. Following strong support from the trade, in December we accelerated the transition to support distributors and retailers ahead of China's New Year, which improved the phasing of our results. At this point, stages one, two, and three have largely transitioned in all major channels with limited old product available. We'll maintain availability of some old product online for a short period of time for those consumers, particularly early stage users, who would prefer to delay switching. In December, we commenced execution of a significant launch campaign, which continued through to Chinese New Year to communicate the arrival of our new upgraded product. The campaign was extensive and integrated across all sales and marketing channels, Michelle will share more on this later in the presentation. Slide 9 highlights that the GB registration process to date has resulted in a 20% reduction in the number of products in the China label IMS market with a shift towards local brands. The two charts on the left show that the total number of China label products has gone from 438 in December 22 to 353 in December 23 with a reduction predominantly from imported products. The shift is far less pronounced from a market value or sales perspective, highlighted in the two charts on the right, which illustrate the impact on the NBS panel as an example. If we stop 10, since we refreshed our growth strategy in 2021, the China IMF market has evolved significantly. It would be more challenging to expect it, but it's now changing. The number of newborns in China for the calendar 23 period reflects an improvement in trajectory over the past several years. We're also encouraged by the recent market volume trend for stage one product, which has improved. Calendar year 24, we expect a high number of newborns based on our assessment of various factors and data points, including delayed birth due to COVID-19, recent marriage stats, pregnancy indicators, government initiatives, and historical birth rates in prior Year of the Dragon. Beyond 24, the longer-term birth rate is more difficult to predict. The overall China IMF market declined again in the first half of 24, down 10.7% in volume and 13.6% in value. There's a similar value decline in Q&A and BCD cities. The market decline is due to a number of factors, including the cumulative impact of lower newborns, increased competitive intensity... and promotional activity, as well as macroeconomic positions impacting retail sales. The market is also seeing increased brand concentrations towards top five players and a shift towards local Chinese brands, partly due to the new GB registration process, and top players are increasingly leveraging a broader product portfolio. We've also recently seen a shift in market sales from China-labeled to English-labeled channels, and within English-labeled channels over a longer period from Daigo to CBEC and O2O channels. Moving to the next slide, against this challenging backdrop, we've been relatively successful. Our brand position, finishing and growth strategy have resulted in significant share gains over the past few years. We are the pioneer of the A13 category and our high quality product and distinctive brand from New Zealand resonates well with consumers. We've increased our marketing investment from just under $170 million in FY21 to over $260 million in the past calendar year to reach more consumers in a targeted manner. Our in-market execution has been exceptionally strong in partnership with our strategic partner, China State Farm. And we are one of the only companies that can leverage a one-brand, two-label approach with strong positions in both China label and English label. In addition, key segment trends continue to support our growth strategy as outlined on slide 12. Our China label products compete in the ultra-premium segment, which represents well over half the total market and increasing as a proportion. And secondly, the A2 protein segment continues to gain share in the category. The segment has grown rapidly and accounts for 20% of the MBS channel and 17% of the Dole channel. The other important trend, which I'll come back to shortly, relates to brand concentration. This is translating into favorable brand health metrics and market share gains. On slide 13, you can see the continued increase in our China brand health metrics. The slide also shows the significant growth in our market share in China-labeled channels, and that our total English label market share has also increased. Moving to slide 14, we're very proud that A2 is now a top five brand in the China IMF market overall with a significant value share of 6.4% at the end of the first half of 24 on an MAT basis. This includes being the clear number two player in the English label IMF market with over 20% share and a 4.1% share in China label as a top 10 brand. Slide 15 shows in detail the evolution of brand concentration in the market over the past few years. The top five brands now represent 52% of the market compared to 45% in FY21, and the top 10 brands account for 74% of the market compared to 66% in FY21. This is an important trend, And there are strong drivers that should see brand concentration increase further over time, consistent with how other IMF markets have developed around the world. Moving now to slide 16 on our outlook for FY24. I'll make a few comments here, but also direct you to our results commentary and outlook announcement released this morning, where we have the full version of our updated FY24 outlook. Our revenue growth guidance for FY24... We're now expecting growth of low to mid single digit percent with IMF, other nutritionals and US sales up, ANZ liquid milk sales flat and MPM sales down. In terms of the shape of our P&L versus last year, we're expecting gross margin as described to be similar. Marketing investment as a percentage of revenue to be similar to up. Administration and other expenses as a percentage of revenue to be similar to down. Overall, we expect this to result in our EBITDA margin in FY24 being broadly in line with FY23. We also expect cash conversion to be higher than FY23 and capex to increase to approximately $30 million to support the upgrade of our Caribbean milk processing facility. I want to spend some time now recapping on some of the elements of our strategy and provide an update on our medium-term revenue ambitions. Slide 17 shows our growth strategy on a page which is focused on five key priorities, which we have refined slightly in the detail to better indicate our current priorities. Firstly, investing in people and planet leadership, particularly in relation to our capability and sustainability objectives. Secondly, capturing the full potential in China IMF, particularly expansion into lower tier cities and online channels. Thirdly, ramping up product innovation. including portfolio expansion in English-labeled IMF, China-labeled IMF and other nutritionals for kids, adults and seniors, as well as leveraging the portfolio into new markets. Fourthly, transforming our supply chain, particularly accessing additional China-labeled IMF registrations and developing our own nutritional manufacturing capability through MVM and or other commercial and acquisition opportunities, primarily in New Zealand and China over time. And finally, accelerating the path to profitability for our US and MVM businesses. Moving to slide 18, this slide shows how we are tracking towards our medium-term goals reflected in our measures of success. Overall, we are making solid progress against the plan we outlined back in October 21, with a few changes here from our full-year results. Engagement and CBEX share have changed to work in progress. I'll come back to our medium-term revenue ambition shortly. On the positive side, Australian household penetration, US premium milk share, China other nutritionals growth and supply chain efficiency have improved. Slide 19 highlights the significant market share we have gained in the China IMF market since FY21, increasing from 4.9% to 6.4% through execution of our growth strategy. In doing so, we have grown our China label IMF sales by over 50%, and stabilised our English label IMF sales, resulting in A2 becoming a top five brand overall. We have also transformed our IMF channel mix, continuing to focus on more controlled channels away from the DAIGO channel. As a result, our China label, CBEC and O2O channels now represent 90% of our IMF sales compared to 60% in FY21. The company has also grown other nutritional products outside of the IMF category by 67%, and its combined liquid milk business in ANZ and the US by 27% over the period. However, the China IMF market size has reduced significantly, down 24%, driven primarily by a 25% reduction in the number of newborns, which is more than expected at the time of announcing our refreshed growth strategy back in October 2021. In particular, English-labeled channels have not recovered at the speed and to the extent initially assumed, with the Daigo channel down 55%, which was a key channel for the company. In summary, whilst the market is showing some early signs of stabilisation, it will take longer for the recovery than initially assumed. Moving to slide 20, in October 2021, as part of our refreshed growth strategy, we defined our medium-term financial ambition to grow revenue from $1.2 billion in FY21, to approximately $2 billion by FY26 or later and to target EBITDA margins in the teens. At the time, we stated that defining a specific timeline to achieve these financial goals was challenging given the pace and degree of change in the China IMF market, including from the prolonged COVID-19 impact and reduction in the number of Chinese newborns. From FY21 to date, we've grown group revenue by $415 million and increased our EBITDA margin by 3.6 percentage points, resulting in revenue and EBITDA growth of 34% and 82% respectively over the period. Our China-label IMF growth is on track with significant share gains. English-label IMF growth is behind plans due to the market decline, particularly in the DAIGO channel, and lower share gains to date. Achieving the company's medium-term revenue ambition of Approximately $2 billion by FY26 would require an additional $380 million in revenue growth on calendar 23 over the next two and a half years. This growth would represent a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9%, with higher growth required in FY25 and 26 based on the company's revenue guidance for FY24. So whilst it remains possible for the company to achieve its medium-term revenue ambition of approximately $2 billion by FY26, At this stage, it is likely to be achieved by FY27 or later. The company continues to target EBITDA margins in the teens with year-on-year improvement. I'll now hand over to Dave, who will cover our financial results for the half in more detail.

Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. Moving to slide 22 and a summary of our group income statement, we delivered net sales revenue for the half of $811 million, up 3.7% on the prior corresponding period. This reflected strong growth in the China and other Asia and USA segments, partially offset by a decrease in the ANZ segment and MVM. I'll come back to the segment sales shortly. Moving down through the income statement, gross margin of 46.7% was in line with FY23. However, it was down 0.9 percentage points on first half 23, driven by higher input costs, FX impacts, and the adverse impact of sales mix, offsetting price rises and margin improvement initiatives. Our distribution costs were largely in line with PCP as a percentage of sales, with higher freight and warehousing costs associated with the China label transition offset by US freight rate savings. Marketing expenses were higher to support the execution of our growth strategy in China and to support the new GB China label product launch and transition. Our administrative and other expenses were lower due to reduced FX hedge losses, the timing of project-related spend, lower LTI expenses, and cost savings. offsetting higher salary and wage costs associated with capability investment. I should point out that the net foreign exchange impact to first half 24 EBITDA compared to the prior period was not material. Interest income increased, reflecting our net cash position and higher market interest rates, and overall our net profit after tax for the half increased 15.6% to $85 million. Slide 23 presents our segment performance and shows significant growth in our China and other Asian segment of 16.5%, led by China label IMF market share growth and the deliberate shift of English label distribution from the Daigao channel to more controlled channels in China, such as CBEC and O2O. This deliberate channel shift explains most of the reduction in the ANZ segment. The USA segment delivered 8.6% sales growth and importantly, improved EBITDA by 31.8%. The decrease in MBM's external sales of 4.7% reflects reduced GDT auction prices compared to last year, offsetting higher volumes. And finally, the EBITDA improvement in the corporate segment was mainly driven by foreign exchange gains that were fully offset at a group level by foreign exchange losses in the other segments. Moving to slide 24, which summarizes our performance from a category perspective, Our total IMF sales were up 1.5% in a very challenging market, with 90% of our IMF sales now made through the China and other Asia segment. This slide also shows the accelerating growth of the other nutritionals category, with a 48.5% increase in sales in first half 24. This category includes plain and fortified milk powders and liquid milk exported into China and other Asia markets. On slide 25, you can see our gross margin percentage of 46.7% was 0.9 percentage points down compared to first half 23, but up on second half 23 and in line with full year 23. The gross margin decrease versus first half 23 reflected higher product costs driven by inflationary pressures on input costs and also partly driven by the increased cost of the new China label IMF product due to upgraded formulation and packaging. The margin decline also reflected adverse foreign exchange impacts, mainly due to the appreciation of the New Zealand dollar against the RMB and also adverse sales mix impacts. Price rises and other cost mitigating initiatives partly helped to offset the adverse impacts. Moving to slide 26, consistent with our growth strategy, our marketing investment has increased significantly, while our SG&A investment has remained reasonably consistent. Marketing investment in first half 24 was higher than both first half 23 and second half 23, reflecting the continued step up in China investment and increased support for the transition to our new GB registered China label product. Xiao will provide more color in his section. SG&A remained relatively stable in absolute terms and improved as a percentage of sales versus PCP, despite our continued investment in innovation and building capability. Moving to the next slide, which covers our cash flow, net operating cash flow of 62.1 million and cash conversion of 87% were both higher than the corresponding period, with the prior period impacted by catch-up payments from COVID-19 delays outside of the company's control. Total net cash at the end of the period was 792 million, 12% higher than first half 23. On slide 28, our balance sheet remains strong. Cash-in-term deposits at the end of the period were 792.1 million, This was slightly lower than second half 23, reflecting operating cash inflow net of MVM bank borrowing repayments. Including external borrowings, our net cash balance increased by $35 million from June 23. Inventory increased on full year 23, as expected, due to the new GB Register China label product transition, with an improvement in English label stock levels that were high at the start of the half due to prior period supply issues. That completes the financial overview, and so now I'll hand over to Li Zhao to take you through the strong performance of our China label business.

Thank you, Dave. It has been a milestone period for us in China. The China MS market and the broader environment have been very challenging, but we have performed strongly. Most importantly, we launched our new GP register China label G2 product, and the transition is ahead of plan. We continue to reach new heights in brand health metrics and market share, BCD cities remained the biggest driver of offline growth in first half 24, and this resulted in strong MBS share growth. In our domestic online business, our growth all paid offline, and our share in doll is now higher than MBS, with our biggest share gains in early stages. We also deliver strong growth across liquid milk and other nutritional products. Turning to slide 31, the China MF market has been very challenging again. with the overall China-label market declining 15.2% in value. Despite this, we grew our China-label net revenue by 10.4% to $299 million, underpinned by further increases in market share across both MBS and the Dow channel. The strong performance was supported by careful execution of the launch and the transition of our new GB registered China-label MF product. Moving to the next slide, we have shown this slide a number of times now, and the trends are continuing. The charts on the left show the significant market decline in the MBS and the dollar channels in the total MF category, as well as in the ultra-premium segment. The chart on the right shows average market selling price for MF from the end of 2021. This clearly highlights the decline in average selling price in the market, continued. and the gap between Q&A and the BCD has closed. We are proud to share the next slide with you, our new Zhichu range. The new product has significant formula upgrades with increased levels of high-purity lactoferrin and the contained innate nutritional group of HMO, OPN, and OPO. We also significantly upgrade the packaging with the innovation for the lid, boom, and the scraper. This was carefully chosen based on in-depth consumer insights work. The product has been well-received by the market, including 7.3 million positive mentions in consumer feedback, and a stronger talkability on formulation, functionality, infant experiences, and user recommendations on GD, Tmall, TikTok, and Redd. Slide 34 to 37 shows some of the many launch and support activities executed by the team. Slide 34 shows the significant campaign launch across traditional and digital channels, as well as an example of auto home advertising, targeting high traffic and high impact areas, including over 200 shopping malls in more than 100 cities. Slide 35 showcased our engagement across our MBS store network. The team rolled out new point-of-sale material across around 23,000 stores and achieved secondary display in 20% of the stores. We also carried out over 300 roadshow events, 3,400 mama class, and 350 in-store events to support the campaign, representing a significant contribution from our in-store promotional team. Moving to slide 36, throughout the campaign, focus on emphasizing product benefits, messaging, and showcase endorsements to develop and enhance product trust. Slide 37 showcases some of the activities across online channels and platforms to drive brand exposure and enhance new user recruitment, including events with GD.com, Tmall, and TikTok. Moving to slide 38, our hard work has again translated into new heights in our brand metrics. Total awareness is up to 68, and the unprompted awareness and the top-of-mind awareness is also increasing. Our trial and loyalty metrics are also continuing to increase as we target more precise marketing lowering in the funnel. The consistent improvement gave us a lot of confidence in the brand and our positioning. The last 39 shows overperformance in MBS for the period. Our record market share in MBS was driven by overgrowth in BCD cities. Our overall market share grew to 3.5%. In Canada cities, our share was consistent at 7.4%, while in BCD cities, we increased our share to 2.9%. We are particularly encouraged by our BCD performance, and continue to be focused on capturing all opportunities in these lower tier cities, where we have a relatively low share. Moving to slide 40, our overall distribution was broadly stable, notwithstanding the significant store closure at the market level, as trade margin for operators has come under significant pressure. We grew in new stores, as well as achieving some modest lack-for-lack growth in mature stores. You can see these slides. that there was also a big impact from deactivated stores. Based on news and data, we increased our numerical distribution from 27% to 28% of stores. And most importantly, our BT distribution from 47% to 48%. Turning to slide 41, our online growth against office offline growth. And our market share is now higher in indoor than MBS. we increased our overall dollar share to a new high of 3.6%. We also achieved a strong growth within the key dollar platforms of TmallGD.com, while unlocking growth in other platforms such as Douyin. Slide 42 shows that we are the leading share gainer in China-level MF among domestic and international brands. In MBS, we were the top fifth share gainer and in Douyin, the number three share gainer. To illustrate the quality of our share gains, slide 43 shows that we have gained share in virtually all stages across MBS and DAO. In MBS, we had higher share growth in early stages. In DAO, we deliver share growth across all stages with continual strong share gains in early stages. A healthy indicator that the channel is growing rather than consumers switching from offline. Now, I will hand over to Johan to take you through the English Label IMF.

Thank you, Xiao, and good morning, everyone. In the English Label IMF, the key highlights were that we invested in a significant brand campaign supporting continued growth in consumer awareness. We also further simplified and de-layered our route to market through use of dropshipping from Tier 1 distributors to consumers, which helped to shorten lead times from manufacturer to consumer. We also expanded O2O channel distribution through a key strategic partnership. And lastly, we have accelerated our innovation efforts and will introduce new products to the market in 2H24. Let's go through the results itself on slide 45. The overall English-labeled IMF market in value declined slightly by 0.1%. The Daegu channel was down 18.6%, offset by a 2.4% growth in CBEC, and a 6.8% growth in O2O. Our net sales revenue was down 7.2% on 1.523 to $264.5 million. TVEC revenue increased 19.9% compared to 1.523, and now represents 80% of all EL sales. Whilst ANZ IMF revenue decreased 50.7% versus 1.523, it was broadly flat versus 2.523, reflecting a more stable channel environment. 1.5.24 saw further refinement in our route-to-market model with a shift to dropship fulfillment model via Tier 1 distributors to service POP, C2C, and O2O store networks, improving service to consumers. We are starting to see signs of stabilization in the English label market. The charts on slide 46 show channel growth rates in Q&A cities on the left versus BCD cities on the right. In both charts, you can see that the rates of market decline have reduced in the six months to the end of December compared to FY23. Total English label CVEC and O2O is in growth for the six months to December in QNA cities. In VCD cities, English label is in growth in CVEC and O2O, but this has been more than offset by continued decline in the DIGO channels. Slide 47 provides some background on the partnership we've developed with the market-leading O2O distributor, UO. UO's O2O operations extend across Mumtime, China's premier O2O-only national key account, and Yunsung, our O2O dropshipping service for smaller stores. Through this partnership, we have grown our share in Mumtime by over 50% and increased our distribution in Yunsung's store network by over 50%. With the evolving dynamics in English-label channels and our increasing focus on O2O, we are pleased to be partnering with UO. Slide 48 shows the stabilization in our overall English-label market share. CanSAR panel data shows our total English-label share across all channels at 20.6%, with steady growth over the past three periods. Our CBET channel share, according to SmartPath, is 21.4%, and our O2O and DIGO share is at 20.5%. Both have declined slightly since FY23, but remain above FY22 levels. It's important to note differences in movements between total English-label market share and channel market shares may be due to scope and sample size limitations at a channel level. We're really excited to be launching additional products in 2.24. Slide 49 shows our new IMF products, A2 Gentle Gold. This new range has been developed in partnership with MVM and a new commercial supply chain partner, Yashley New Zealand, a subsidiary of Mongmu. This product extends our addressable market within the premium price range. It will broaden our English-label IMF portfolio to appeal to more consumers. A2 Gentle Gold will be positioned in the premium segment, while an additional English-label product will be positioned above A2 Platinum in FY25. A2 Gentle Gold will be launched in Australian retail channels, emerging markets in Southeast Asia and selected channels in China. We're also excited to be launching additional products in the adult and senior consumer segments, also in 2.524. A2 Immune is fortified with lactoferrin to support a healthy immune system. A2 Move is formulated with FortiGel, which is clinically proven to support bone, joint and muscle health. Both new products are made with pure and natural New Zealand A2 milk. With signs of stabilization in the English-labeled IMF channels and an expanded portfolio in IMF and in the adult and senior segments, we're optimistic about 2.524 and beyond. With that, I'll now hand over to our Managing Director for ANZ and Strategy, Eleanor Call.

Thanks, Johan, and hello, everyone. By way of quick update on ANZ Liquid Milk, a key focus for us this year has been continuing to drive our lactose-free product, in particular through targeted digital campaigns, as well as retailer sampling, out-of-home advertising, and leveraging our field sales team to strengthen our presence at shelf. Pleasingly, we've seen our market share continue to grow as a result of these initiatives, with our lactose-free share growing from 7.2% at the end of FY23 to 11.3% at the end of the half. We've also expanded our consumer base with household penetration of A2 milk increasing from 14.2% to 15.1%, providing us with more opportunities to stay top of mind with our consumers. In terms of net sales revenue, in the first half we delivered growth of 1.5% to 93.3 million. Given the currently challenging macroeconomic environment and the outperformance of private label brands, We were pleased to continue to grow the liquid milk business in Australia and maintain our market share flat at 11.3%, with growth in lactose-free offsetting some decline in our core range. With that, I'll now hand over to Kevin to share key messages on our USA business.

Thanks, Eleanor. A quick update on the US business today as well. It's been a big half of the team as we're really focusing on achieving our goals. Key impacts for the half can be summarised as follows. Household penetration was broadly stable at 2.2% with high loyalty rates versus competitors. We experienced a decline in brand awareness with lower marketing spend, but this is stabilizing. We achieved growth in market value share in the premium milk category to the grocery channel, and importantly, we improved profitability and reduced reported losses significantly. Turning to slide 54 and looking at the result itself, we grew revenue 8.6% to 56.9 million, which is up on the prior corresponding period as well as second half 23. Revenue growth was mainly driven by lower trade spend due to reduced promotional depth and frequency and innovation. Our EBITDA loss of 8.3 million was lower compared to second half 23. We achieved this through reduced promotional activity, improved input costs and distribution rates, lower marketing spend, and reduced SG&A costs, partly offset by higher costs incurred with respect to pursuing long-term FDA approval. We commenced distribution of IMF with selected retailers in-store and online, including recently with Amazon. We are continuing to pursue longer-term FDA approval to import A2 Platinum, and are currently focused on completing clinical trials and preparing the new infant formula notification to be filed by October 2024. Accelerating the path to profitability in the USA by FY25, FY26 remains a key priority for us, and we expect to make further progress on this objective this year. And with that, I'll hand back to David Bortoluzzi.

Thanks, Kevin. A few quick points on MVM before we move to Q&A. MVM reported net sales revenue of $43.5 million, broadly in line with the first half of 23 as the reduction in GDT prices offset higher external sales volumes. EBITDA was a loss of $15.3 million compared to a reported loss of $13.4 million in the first half of 23. Slightly higher EBITDA loss was due to lower A2 sales driven by timing. additional product development trial costs and capability building initiatives, as well as farm-grade milk price changes. Importantly, we commence production of A2 Platinum Stage 4 IMF base powder, partnering with a new commercial supply chain partner, New Zealand New Milk, a subsidiary of Lactalis. Accelerating NVM's path to profitability by FY26 remains a priority for us. I'll pause there, and with that, pass back to David Akers for Q&A.

Thanks, David. I'll ask that when we take questions, they limit to two questions and please rejoin the queue. Darcy, can you please open for questions?

Thank you. Your first question comes from Tom Kirath from Barron Joey. Please go ahead.

Morning, guys. Just a couple of questions on the China Label transition. Just want to understand if there's any kind of benefit in the half from kind of stocking up the channel. You know, I know that you did it kind of quite late in the period. Firstly, and then secondly, was there any margin drag at the start of the period when you had, I guess you were getting rid of the old stock? I just want to understand what the margin looks like excluding that impact potentially. Thanks.

Sure. Thanks, Tom. I'll take the first question and Dave might talk about the margin. So in terms of the transition and benefit in the first half, Not really. Our stock levels at the end of December were in line with what we normally plan. So we had thought that the transition previously post 11-11 might leave that transition not progressing as smoothly as hoped, but it did turn out pretty well. So stock levels in the trade in our distributors at the end of the half were in line with our normal targets. So you shouldn't think that there's any benefit or penalty, I guess, associated with that. So, Dave, you want to comment on margin?

Yeah, Tom, I think on the margin, it's actually sort of the opposite. Xiao and the team did such a great job with the transition and it being a soft changeover that there really wasn't a margin drag in the first part of the half. And if anything, you simply had the higher cost of the new China label coming through at the back end of the half. But the old label margins... there's really no impact there. No write-offs. And no write-offs related to product either.

Cool. Great. Thanks, guys.

Thank you. Your next question comes from David Arrington from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Morning, David. Yeah, can I follow on from Tommy's question on... Because it seems to me that the terrific improvement, I suppose, in your sales outlook... for this year, the majority, I'm assuming, has all come from the successful transition and also the stabilisation of English label, but probably the majority is from the China label transition being such a success. And I just, if you could confirm that, but if my question is trying to understand why you have done such a great job, whereas others appear maybe be lacking a little bit, And I'm looking at slide nine. I think slide nine is really interesting where the number of imported has just fallen away significantly. So probably you're now, you know, really, if not the number, you're number two, I suppose, but you're dominating that. And then when you combine that with slide 33, where why you've been so well received in the market, where, you know, everything's just coming back, you're getting a lot of positive sentiment. The question I'm asking is... What is the problem with the others at the moment with the GB registration, particularly the international guys? Is it that their product is just not getting through? What are you hearing in the marketplace that has been allowed you to have such a strong performance relative to competitors that just aren't getting it done? Can you give us a bit of feedback as to what you're hearing in the market? Because it's a really, really positive point, I think, out of this whole result.

Yeah, thanks, David. I might sort of just briefly address the first part of your question and then the other two components relating to why we've been successful in the transition and how we're comparing or competing against the competition. I might hand over to Shao to talk to that. But firstly, in terms of the outlook, and your comment is China Label driving that improvement in our outlook, we sort of are of the view that the the impact on China level is largely phasing. It may well do better than we expect, but most of the impact was phasing between first half and second half. Like in our initial guidance, we were cautious about the transition and bringing a new product to market just after double 11 and having to establish new product arrangements with all of our customers in-store and online is a challenging task to do. And so we were a bit cautious about the ex-factory sales in that last four to six weeks, which fortunately proved out to flow through well. I do note that when you look at the full year English label, you mentioned that as well, our performance and the outlook for English label has probably improved since our full year guidance given previously. And also the growth in our other nutritionals has been pretty strong as well. So it's a combination of factors. It's not just due to the transition of China label. But having said that, I might hand over to Xiao to comment on why our China label transition has been successful and why we're continuing to gain share in the market.

So I will contribute. I mean, the Galaxy transition to several factors. I mean, we have the game plan ready by, I mean, June 2023. Well, I mean, because we are kind of late in the SMR approval, we get the opportunity, I mean, to really optimize the plan, I mean, by learning from all what the competition doing, are they working or not working. So until the last moment of the launch, we still optimize the plan. And this is probably the best game plan we have. And secondly, I mean, I think we upgrade the formula and also the package. So this is a new... Galaxy Zhichu product, we have a much simplified, sharpened, and stronger new product proposition, benefit claim, as well as the product package and the formula upgrade. So it turned out to be a very successful, I mean, clear, simple, convincing message. We'll accept it by the consumer comparing with the old Zhichu product. And the third one is the successful campaign and the integration. This we already covered a lot. I mean, in the previous slides that this is the biggest campaign. We increased our investment level and it's a much better integration in terms of marketing and the sales online or offline. And probably, I mean, the fourth factor I will contribute to the overstable price before the transitions. While you see a lot of our MNC competitors, their price is collapsing before the transition, which makes the price gap with the old product under the new China label much bigger. And this makes the transition even more challenging. While in our case, it's a much more smooth transition in terms of the price gap. And lastly, I will contribute this success to the team, which is highly, I mean, high morale and a shared goal and everybody is aligned because this is our only baby in China level. We don't have any chance, I mean, to make it fail. So hopefully it answers your question.

Yes, it did. It did. It's been an outstanding success. And I suppose, David, just finally, the one concern I would have, and maybe you'd like to address this, is, taking greater control of your supply chain, which is what one of your key strategic objectives is. But when you look at Matura Valley, it's in losses and it seems to be getting a little worse. As you transition more product to Matura Valley, what concern would this have that you're going to dilute returns and dilute margins for your growth products, particularly in English label, as you take more control of your supply chain?

David, so the economics of NVM are largely dependent upon the mix of product that we put through NVM with nutritional products, particularly infant milk formula, being far more profitable, obviously, than lesser products or commodity products. And having said that, shop owners are doing a great job improving the efficiency of the site as well, which you're not seeing in the numbers because we're investing in capability and product trial costs, which are now category are very expensive. So as we transition more product to MVM, particularly on innovation and growth opportunities, we see that as advancing the economics significantly of MVM and benefiting the total group as we capture on consolidation the margin, capture a vertical margin within MVM as well. So when we look at, for example, our first new product launch of Gentle Gold, which is the first new infant product we've launched in 10 years, when we look at the product economics of that and production costs of the end-to-end system between MBM and Shili, it's very competitive. It's very similar to our current arrangements adjusted for formulation because it sits underneath A2 Platinum. So we're confident that even with our existing arrangements, which are leveraging an owned facility with commercial partnerships with Yashili and New Milk, that we can be competitive and improve the economics of NBM, but at the same time deliver an end-to-end product cost to our business and margin structures that make sense versus current arrangements. So it really depends on how much nutritional volume that we put through NBM.

Thanks, David, and great job. Thank you for answering questions.

Thanks, David. Are there any more questions, operator? Sorry, everyone on the line, we're just working out whether there are any more questions.

Pardon me, your next question comes from Richard Barwick at CLSA. Please go ahead.

Good morning, David. Yeah, so obviously we talked a bit about the near-term outlook for revenue, and obviously you've upped your expectations for FY24, but you're taking a more subdued view on medium-term sales, so... Effectively, you're talking you may still hit that $2 billion revenue in 26, but more likely now 27 or later. So what's changed? Because I'm thinking that back in the AGM, you're still pointing to 26. You've got a better near-term outlook, and yet you pushed out the long term. So just trying to reconcile the moving parts there.

Yeah, Richard, that's a great question. I mean, back in 21, we laid out our plan with an ambition to achieve that, and we said at the time it was difficult to determine. I guess this is our original plan. The newborns have been lower than we expected, and other variables that we model around probably penetration and consumption per user, particularly in BCD cities, haven't sort of increased as much as we'd originally expected, even though they still have increased. So what we do, like many companies do, we go through an annual planning and update cycle, sort of a strategic update and long-term planning exercise on an annual basis, and we do that sort of typically around this period, like in the third quarter, second and third quarter, leading into our budget cycle in the fourth quarter. When we look at the assumptions at the moment with the current information that we have in front of us, achieving $2 billion in sales by FY26 was getting more stretching. And I always said when we, right back in 21, I said it was difficult to determine the timing and if and when it ever became apparent that the timing may change, whether that be sooner or later, then I'd let the market know straight away. So as we work through that, we just think we're at sort of a halfway point now, two and a half years in, of what was a five or more year plan. We thought we'd share that with the market. It's still possible. A lot of things would have to go right for us to hit that number in 26th. but we think it's more likely now to be 27 or later. So, I mean, it's really like our share growth in the market, as you can see, is in line, if not ahead of our original expectations. We're really performing well, particularly in China label. English label share, like both the channel, has not recovered to the extent that we originally expected, and nor has our share. To be fair, we haven't gained as much share in English label as we'd originally hoped, but as Johan said, we're more optimistic going forward. But essentially, despite our share gains, the market in total has contracted more than we expected and achieving our goals by 26 is becoming more stretching. So rather than hold on to those targets and the market doubting that, we thought it'd be fair at this point just to give an update and say that it's more likely to be 27 or later than 26 or later.

Okay, understood. Fair enough. No, there's no dispute to you guys in terms of what you're doing in a tough market has been outstanding, but it's just a question mark over how tough the market is. So my second question was on Sinle.

I wouldn't, sorry, just going back to that, Richard, I wouldn't see this as being, sorry, I wouldn't see this as being like a significant change moment for us. It's more just incrementally over time. It's got incrementally worse than we expected in terms of the market. We've just got to the point now when we look out through those years, it's just a little bit more stretching than we'd hoped.

Yes, understood. Just a quick one on Sinle, David. They've got some pretty well publicised balance sheet concerns. There are two questions on Sinle. What can you do to ensure that there's no disruption? around your near-term supply with sinley depending on how things unfold there and then perhaps more importantly from a summer license perspective how important is it that a2 maintains a continued ownership stake in sinley um so from an operational point of view richard um i think it's um well i won't comment specifically on our arbitration case um but it's well known that that

That was in response to service levels being below contractual levels, in our view, over an extended period. But thankfully, since then, and more recently, service levels from Sinle have improved. So we don't have any major operational concerns with Sinle at the moment. And so we've always had a really strong operational relationship with Sinle So I don't think you should be concerned about that at the moment. In terms of the SAMR license, the requirements under the regulations are that the brand owner and the manufacturing facility need to demonstrate close association. And that is not specifically defined in the regulations, but certainly our stake of 20% demonstrates that. And we are aware of cases in the market where that equity ownership can be as low as 1% in demonstrating close association. So I assume that you're perhaps thinking that if Sinle's capital structure concerns were addressed in a different way to their current plan of selling dairy works and perhaps with syndicate support around that, that they may be considering other options, potentially an equity raise, which we're not aware of. And you might be worried about the impact on our SAMR licence of any dilution to the A2 stake. I assume that's where that's coming from. And if that is the case, we haven't made any decision. We don't know whether Simla is planning that. We haven't made any hypothetical decisions in relation to that. But even if that was the case and our equity stake was diluted in any way, we don't think that is a regulatory concern in relation to our SAMR licence.

Okay. Well, I was actually thinking even in a more bearish scenario, if Sinley was to go into administration, how important was it, again, for you to come out the other side with an equity stake?

I guess you're saying it could be as low as... Administration itself is not necessarily... Yeah, so administration itself is... A couple of points there. Administration itself is not necessarily... regulatory issue the license attaches to the factory however and whatever form that continues um all i would say is that that that the requirements are to demonstrate close association and that that's not specifically defined but we're we would always make sure that we follow whatever samar requires in relation to the regulatory requirements okay thank you that's really useful thanks david

Thank you. Your next question comes from Marcus Curley from UBS. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Two questions, David. Just on gentle gold, I just wondered if you could sort of talk to the opportunity there, you know, how big an opportunity or how big of a market do you see that being in terms of the premium category? You know, and does this, you know, I suppose, and I suppose the the premium product launch, a super premium product launch that you're sort of referring to at some stage next. Does this go a long way to close the gap on Aptimal in the English label category?

Marcus, great questions. I might actually just ask Johan to address that, and he leads that part of our business.

Sure. Thanks, Marcus. Relating to your questions on A2 Gentle Gold, Of course, the primary audience for that product is Australia and markets in Southeast Asia. And so if we look at the Australian market, upwards of 35% of the total Australian market is at the premium price point. So by premium price point, we're talking about Australian dollars, $29 to $37. And of course, our product, our platinum product in Australia is sold for above that And so what we're trying to do with Gentle Gold is to broaden the audience for A2 infant formula. And Gentle Gold plays in that more premium price point. So it opens the addressable market for us in Australia. There are also markets in Southeast Asia for which a product such as Gentle Gold priced at lower than platinum is more appropriate. This new product is a key element to help us achieve our ambitions associated with emerging markets growth. This is envisaged to be one of the key products that we would use to expand in Southeast Asia, but it's not the only part of our new product development plans in IMF. Yes, as you said, we've got platinum. We've got A2 Gentle Gold slightly below in the premium segment. And we're looking to bring to market a product more premium than platinum, primarily for Chinese market. And yes, that will represent a stronger ingredient set with more functional benefits. And as you said, it is to be able to more effectively compete with some of our multinationals in the English label space who are able to bring multiple products to market leveraging their global pantry. And so this will help us to upgrade our consumers in English label in China from platinum to our super premium products.

Do you see any risk to A2 Platinum through the Daegu channel from gentle gold, i.e. it being offered in at a lower price point and it creates cannibalization to that offering?

Yeah, so the product will be available for sale in Australian retail markets, and there is definitely the potential for Daigu to take the product. And I think the way we look at it is it's a potential broadening of the audience base, and even we're planning to launch the Gentle Gold product in selected China channels. But primarily the product is for the Australian market, and I think that, you know, particularly when you consider the volumes involved and look at some of our competitors. Even with, say, the likes of Optimal, there's a gold product and a Profitura product. This would be not dissimilar to that.

Secondly, David, you've obviously got a new manufacturing agreement on stage four and now with a new English label product. but no announcement on manufacturing capability within this result. Would you be expecting to make decisions on particularly canning, I should say, inside of the next six or 12 months?

Yeah, Marcus, I know we've been working on this for some time and the market would like to have some clarity, but we want to make sure we make the right decision going forward and we're evaluating a bunch of options in New Zealand and elsewhere But in terms of timing, we're hoping to make progress during this calendar year. We'd obviously love it to be sooner rather than later, but I think this calendar year is a reasonable expectation. Okay, thanks.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Sam Teager from Citi. Please go ahead.

Hi, David. Excellent result for the first half. Would be good to explore the English label outperformance versus China label. Do you see this as the start of a longer-term trend? How much of this shift do you think is Chinese consumers trading down from the higher price China label to the lower price English label, given their weakness in the consumer over there more broadly? Or any other factors you think about driving this shift?

Yeah, Sam, it's a good question. I think it's probably too early to tell, but we're encouraged by the recent trajectory of the channel and also our business. And within the channel, the CBEC and O2O channels kind of outperforming the Diago channel, which has been going on for some time now, but they're obviously becoming a much more significant part of the overall English label mix. In terms of the drivers of the English label channel, being flat for the period. There's a few things that, I mean, it's hard to know with certainty, obviously, but the things that we think are driving it is, you know, firstly, I think consumers are becoming more comfortable post-COVID with a cross-border trade. So at the time, during COVID, there were concerns about contamination, there was interruption of, you know, service levels and things like that, because more was going through those control channels, the service levels were better. So I think there's that component. Secondly, I think that definitely the macroeconomic conditions, as you mentioned, are causing some trading down across categories, and infants are no exception to that. So relative to other propositions in the market, I think English label is perhaps becoming a more attractive value proposition. Thirdly, I think there's, you know, I think the China label transition, this is, again, this is hard to get a read on. We'll have to see some tracking from the market later. But because of the China label GB transition over the last 18 months, I mean, that's really forced 84% of the market overall, those parents and caregivers to really change their product in China label, and it's prompting them to reconsider which products China label product or English label product they may purchase going forward. And perhaps, you know, particularly in relation to, you know, stage three rather than early stage product, perhaps they're considering their English label more than they have done in the past. And then finally, I think there's also drivers within the category because, you know, when you look at the major players in the category, when we're doing a slightly better job ourselves, but also... It's fair to say that Aptamor, particularly in English label, is doing a strong job at the moment and has been for several years, perhaps less so within China label, but Nestle has also, through innovation, particularly in the specialty category, has grown well in English label as well. So they're probably the three or four key drivers that we see influencing the stability of the English label channel at the moment and makes us a little bit more optimistic around the channel performance going forward. And then when we layer on our innovation coming to market and the work that we're doing, particularly in CBEC and our new O2O distribution partnership with EUR, we feel better about the future in English Label. So early days. Great.

Yeah, you said in the past that English Label is higher margin than China Label, but in terms of dollars, like for $1.10, is an EBITDA dollar for China Label still more than English Label?

So do you want to comment on margins?

Yeah, I think the differential now, Sam, isn't so great because if you think about the mix of our business now, it's CBEK and O2O, and I think we've always said that that's reasonably consistent with China. It was always Daigao that was the higher margin.

Well, that makes sense. And sorry, just lastly... Any comments you want to make about how the sell-through of the new China Label product is going versus your expectations? I know the sell-in has gone very well, but any sell-through comments would be appreciated. Thanks.

It's probably a bit too early. I mean, the transition's gone well, and we've obviously pretty much run out of old G2 product in the trade, so it is naturally moving across pretty rapidly to our new product. In terms of, we want to look also at this closely around the retention of existing users and the attraction of new users to the category through the stages. So it's a bit early. We get some information by channel in store and online to make some assessment of that, but it's too early to do that. It varies by channel. It's sort of fragmented at the moment. Perhaps we'll be able to provide a better update later in the year, the full year in relation to that. But so far, there's no major concerns. It's gone well. Transition's gone well, certainly in terms of shipping and no major concerns on sellout as well.

Great. Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Stephen Ridgewell from Craig's Investment Partners. Please go ahead.

Yes, hi, just got two questions. Firstly, on the other nutritionals category, can you just give us a little bit of a better sense around the drivers of the rapid growth in that segment of the first half, 24, it does seem to have been going a bit faster than market expectations. And then, you know, do you expect to see, you know, relatively strong growth in that category continue for the second half and beyond? And then just at a higher level, how do margins compare for other nutritionals compared to formula, please?

Yeah, again, I might ask Johan to comment on that. He looks after most of our other nutritionals category, which is weighted towards English label at the moment, but we've certainly got some strong plans in China label as well.

Yes, so in terms of your question around the progress in test half 24, I think, you know, that there are multiple products within the other nutritionals portfolio. You know, you have the milk powder, UHT products as well. If we looked at milk powder, what we've seen is a strong growth in both China-labeled and English-labeled milk powder. Recovery in our English-labeled channels and our transition across to CBEC has helped us. improve our share in English label. And plus in China label, we've secured more ranging in offline channel. So that's driven the growth that we've had in the powder products. And then similarly in the China label side for UHT, we've also increased our ranging there as well. And it's performing particularly well in the ultra premium price tier for UHT for kids. So that's, if you like, the base business. And as you would have seen in the slides as well, we have NPD coming. So the first round of NPD we'll be seeing in second half 24 will be around fortified milk powders. And fortified milk powders is a high growth sub-segment within milk powder. And so our first products into that space are the Immune and Move products. products, which you can see are expanding into those spaces. Perhaps the other thing to note, just in terms of the PCP, we're cycling quite a soft comparable period in the first half of 2023, but it's great to see the trajectory improving for these products, and we expect that to continue.

So perhaps not necessarily assume that the rate of growth will be the... Don't necessarily assume the rate of growth will be the same going forward. And the other part of your question was on margins. That'd be for David.

Yeah, the margins... I mean, I suppose it really depends on the mix of the business. So right now it's skewed heavily to plain milk powders and we're hoping to move into fortified milk powders. We are moving to fortified milk powders over time and not bring higher margins, but the margins are... quite low relative to the rest of our business for the current mix of business that we have today.

That's great. Thanks. And then second question is on gross margin. So you've got it for a similar gross margin, but I guess I just wanted to, you know, just given the price increases we've seen at the retail level at least, you know, in the new formula for A2 Platinum and, you know, with shrink inflation with a smaller package size, I guess, should we not expect to be seeing perhaps a slightly more positive outlook for gross margin, even allowing for input cost increases? Any comments you can give us on that outlook for gross margin, please?

I think net-net, so if you think about the upgraded formulation, the upgraded packaging, less, I suppose, the slightly smaller tin and the pricing that we've taken, we've We've probably recouped the absolute increase per tin related to that increase, but on a margin percentage basis, it probably actually comes with a little bit of dilution that we should see in the second half, but that'll slightly be tempered by some of the ingredients savings that we're sort of starting to see come through. But in terms of your specific question about China Label going forward, it's probably a small amount of margin dilution, net-nets with the price rise and the increased cost of the product.

That's very helpful. Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Phil Kimber from E&P Capital. Please go ahead.

G'day, David. Just a question on NVM and US. because they're actually going to be quite key drivers of EBITDA improvement over the next few years. So on MVM, how quickly... I mean, do these new products materially move the dial? And maybe if you can talk about what some of these trial costs were, I mean, how material they were in the first half for MVM. And then on the US... you know, getting to break even or profitability in that business, is that dependent on you getting the FDA approval and getting, you know, decent improvement in infant milk formula sales in that market, or is that not the key driver for the US profitability? Thanks.

Yeah. Hi, Phil. So on MVM, the, I mean, the, Trial costs were, I mean, think of probably the capability building and the trial costs equating for a fair chunk of the difference between the two periods results, a couple of million dollars there, plus you've got some farm gate pricing impacts. The new product that we're developing, so the stage four product, we're making the base powder at MVM, so there'll be a reasonable pickup in relation to that, albeit relatively small volumes overall. On the Gentle Gold and the new product that we're also developing in the premium category, at the moment, just so that we stage the development and capability building with MVM, we're just supplying the A1 free skim milk powder to Yashili to recon and produce the product. The intention is after that is to insource the powder production, resource it back into MVM. initially for Gentle Gold and then subsequently for the Super Freeman product, and that will have a more material impact on MBM's profitability per tonne of production. Ultimately, the scale of that will depend upon how successful those products are in the market and the mix of our overall portfolio sales between that good, better, best product range, including Platinum, and that which is produced at MBM. So it's probably too early to assess the impact on that. In addition to that kind of product mix, Chopin and the team are working very hard on efficiency improvement, continuous improvement initiatives at MVM, as well as overall utilization and building milk pool to drive improvements in profitability as well. So as we said back in 21, our goal still remains, notwithstanding that we've adjusted our 27 targets, we're still working very hard to get MVM to break even in FY26, which remains our goal. That may change over time, but that's our goal and that's what we're working towards. The U.S., you know, you can see in the results, again, we've made really strong progress in the half in reducing the losses by a third from 12 to 8. There are also FDA costs in there as well. We are of the strong view that we can get our liquid milk business to break even. And then FDA is an investment at the moment to, in the longer term, to hopefully develop a medical presence in the U.S. with our infant product that will have, you know, make a positive contribution to our U.S. business. Now, what the uncertainty for me is, and we've talked about this before, is the extent to which we're going to need to invest the returns. You know, the margin structures in infants are, as we know, they're relatively attractive. But how much of that we're going to have to invest in marketing to build awareness and trial and loyalty in the brand going forward. We think we've got some distinctive aspects as part of our proposition. But we're mindful that we're going up against some of the, you know, a really competitive base in the U.S. with entrenched positions as well. So the longer-term economics beyond break-even to be determined, but we're very committed to get the U.S. to break-even by 2025 or 2026, which is consistent with our original plan.

That's great. Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Matt Montgomery from Forsyth Bar. Please go ahead.

Hi, David. Good morning. Well done on a solid result. First question is just around consolidation within the industry. Just wondering, I guess, post new product transition, how enduring you think this theme is and, I guess, to what extent

the concentration of the market could get to over what time I think the China market because of its size and complexities is probably going to be more fragmented than other markets around the world from a market structure point of view I mean at the US at one extreme and the second largest market in the world for various historical and current reasons you've got You've got Nick Johnson, Abbott and Perigo having approximately 95% of the market between them and various new entrants in the category having the remaining 5% or 6% at the moment. Other markets around the world, there are typically two or three major brands in the category. So it's hard to be specific about where we think it's going to end up and state over what time period. But this trend towards brand concentration in the category makes entire sense from a consumer point of view, regulatory point of view, competitive point of view as well, to have fewer, stronger, more relevant brands in the market with the highest food safety and quality standards as well. So I think it's just going to be an ongoing trend. And you've seen the trend at the moment. It's probably not unreasonable to assume that that kind of trend continues. You've got re-registration. periods that come into that every five years that may have an influence as well. Probably too early to determine, but I am convinced that the market will definitely at a brand concentration level, which is probably the most important from our point of view and from a market structure point of view, brand concentration, that's the size of each individual brand and the concentration index associated with that, will improve over time. And then also we've seen early signs of corporate consolidation with with some of the major players investing in each other and in the past as well with Nestle and Wythe as well. So I think brand concentration and corporate consolidation will be continued themes in the development of the China infant milk market structure over time.

Great, thank you. And I think you made a comment at the start of your comments around birth for 2024. The line was a bit scratchy. I was just wondering if you could flesh out Any thoughts you have on 24 births and where they may land?

Yeah, I mean, I think we've said that we're still of the belief that calendar 24 births will be higher than calendar 23, which has been recently released. When we think about, and we've done some work on this ourselves, but we think about the delayed impact of COVID on family planning, plus the trend in You know, marriage stats during 23, which are up. When we look at some of the pregnancy indicators that we have, which are some of them are anecdotal, some of them are sort of informal, but I won't go into the specifics around that at the moment. I think a combination of those things, plus government initiatives in this, because obviously the birth rate's an important policy objective as well. We just think that a combination of all that, as well as perhaps the cultural impact of Year of the Dragon, which historically has been a more productive year, than other years, but the combination of those factors, we feel like 24, the number of newborns will be up on 23. Where it goes after that, difficult to tell at this stage. I mean, there are such a socio-demographic reasons why at constant fertility rates, it would still then decline a little bit over time, but we think that hopefully this is the start of some stabilization and recovery in the category.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Lisa Dang from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Congratulations on a good result. I have two questions. First is about phasing on the first half versus second half. We made a commentary in the presentation about the pulled forward or the accelerated campaign in December improved phasing. What does that mean exactly? Is it phasing of sales or profit? How do we interpret that?

It was more sales. I guess always going back to our original guidance for the full year, with the transition of our China label product largely being executed late in the fourth quarter, we were concerned at the time that that transition with all of our key accounts and platforms may have not been as smooth as it was. And so from our own internal numbers point of view, we sort of risk adjusted that. and indicated to the market, you know, in connection with our full-year guidance of the infant category in China Label, that we thought that would be more second-half waiters. So when I made the comment about phasing, it was more that we didn't experience that, and therefore the phasing over the halves improved. But having said that, I think China Label phasing, you know, is not necessarily going to be a significant difference now, having brought that forward. And if anything, on a like-for-like basis, you would then assume that China Label phasing would be more even rather than just our second half weighted, if you know what I mean.

Yeah, got it. That's clear. Second question is then on the EBITDA margin outlook. I think we said it'd be broadly in line, which is unchanged. But if we talked about the GP margin being sort of moderately dilutive into the second half because of the new label and then also the transition into ZBEK and O2O being lower margin from Daigo and then there is also a lot of marketing campaigns done in the third quarter and then the new product launch. Are we still comfortable about saying that the EBITDA margin is broadly in line for the full year?

Lisa, I think Dave's comments before were probably more in relation to China-level specifically. But our guidance, which is hopefully fairly clearly articulated in our release and the presentation, is that we're expecting gross margins to be similar to FY23 and 24. And then we provided some guidance around the shape of our marketing spend and admin costs for SG&A as well. So overall, we're still confident that our EBITDA margins will be broadly in line with FY23.

So at least this is the other thing that we haven't really covered is MBM internal sales were very low in the first half of this year due to us, I suppose, pulling forward the purchase of products in advance of the season, sort of shutting down. So the internal sales were very low in the first half, 24, and should be higher in the second half, particularly as we sort of talk about some of these IMF projects. That'll help to offset some of that China label impact.

Got it.

Thank you. Thank you. Your next question comes from Adrian Oborn from Jarden. Please go ahead.

Good morning, all. Thank you. Just wondering, on your new partnership in the O2O space with the distributor, can you give us a sense of how, like, I mean, not necessarily how the exact trade economics work, but just sort of how the sort of relationship works? like how they sort of are remunerated or work for you in the supply chain?

Yeah. Might ask Johan to talk to that. Sure.

So I guess UO is probably the best way I could describe it is consider it more like another first-tier distributor, right? So the relationship is a commercial relationship with relation to the distribution of product into their channels. So that's being Mumfine, which is a national key account that they operate, plus they have the Yunsung, which is a dropship model for smaller O2O stores. So in terms of the model, it's a commercial distribution agreement, but it's specifically related to the channels that they operate.

And maybe it didn't come out that well in our presentation discussion, but the UO were really one of the founding founders that develop the O2O channel in China, and they're a very sophisticated IT-orientated company. Like, their tech is impressive. So they're very capable in the channel. They're the market leader, and we're thankful to have developed early days with a good partnership.

And so just, do they hold inventory on their own account? Yes.

Yes. Yes, so like a tier one distributor, they purchase inventory from us.

Okay, and then like presumably you have good transparency on the inventory level as well as part of the agreement?

Yes, as part of the agreement, there are data transparency requirements as well so that we can have visibility of flows in and out, yes.

no okay no that's good um and then just like um maybe this is a question for um i guess just coming back to the supply chain transformation but i guess you're forming these new close associations with um shilly and and the other um milk which i think is part of that so they have um like i'm thinking on the china label side do they have like brand slots or the SAMR approved, that you could potentially further that relationship with? Is that part of your thinking? Or would that sort of run against, I guess, recent sort of guidance from the SAMR themselves that you sort of need to have ownership directly for new licenses in the future?

Yeah. Adrian, that's not currently our plan. New Milk has re-registrations in a facility which are, so fully utilised, and Yashili have two registrations, including the Bellamy's registration, which are utilised as well. So there is one vacant slot, if you like it, Yashili, but I think they've probably got other plans for that. So that's not our intention at the moment. It's a commercial relationship focused on English labels.

OK. Can you just kind of... talk more broadly about sort of some of the recent direction from semi in terms of what it means for new semi licenses in terms of what your interpretation is of like we sort of look at it publicly and kind of go well sort of a third party manufacturing kind of relationship is a bit tough but what's the A2 view on that?

Well domestically within China OEM or ADM relationships are not possible in the infant category there have been variations of that internationally But the important thing for the brand owner and the manufacturing facility is to demonstrate close association. And I mentioned earlier that that's not specifically defined. It's more an assessment by SAMR based on the facts and circumstances as you go through license approvals or renewals. And we've seen cases where that close association is typically demonstrated through a degree of equity ownership. in part or all of the facility, and we're seeing various forms of that internationally as well as locally. So it's not a hard and fast rule, and it's a careful assessment of what's appropriate in the circumstances and working in a cooperative way with SAMR to achieve your objectives. So we are definitely reviewing, as I've said in the past, we are reviewing M&A and JV options likely within New Zealand and elsewhere. It's too early for us. I mean, there's lots of things that we're looking at and hopefully we'll make meaningful progress on that this year and be able to announce something. But, you know, it's one of those things when you... In terms of those types of investments, you can't say anything until something's completely done. So we're still progressing things.

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr Bordelucci for closing remarks.

Thank you, everybody, for joining the call. I know it's a long presentation, but hopefully through that you get a good understanding of our current performance and outlook, and it's good to have the opportunity to discuss some of the questions you had. Myself and the team look forward to catching up with most of you during the course of this week and next. So, anyway, thanks for joining the call. That's it for now. Thank you.

Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.