8/18/2024

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Thank you for standing by and welcome to the A2 Milk Company FY24 results presentation. All participants are in a listen only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you'll need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. David Akers, Group Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
David Akers
Group Head of Investor Relations

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining. Starting on slide three, on the call today, we have David Ward-Lucy, our Managing Director and CEO, and Dave Musket, our CFO. We also have the leaders from our regions, Lee Zhao, Johansson Ratney, Eleanor Corr, and Kevin Bush. The team will present our results and outlook, and there will be time for questions at the end. I'll hand over now to David Ward-Lucy.

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Thanks, David. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the call. We're pleased to present our FY24 results, which delivered strong growth in revenue, EBITDA, and EPS. We grew total IMF sales despite a double-digit decline in the China IMF market, becoming a top five brand. We also achieved another record high in China label market share in a year of market-wide transition to new GB product. Encouragingly, after several periods of decline, we stabilised our English label sales and achieved growth in the second half. And pleasingly, we announced on Friday that we have resolved our Sinle arbitration disputes, subject to Sinle completing its equity raise and refinancing. Moving to slide five, which summarises our financial results. Revenue for the period was $1.68 billion, up 5.2%. EBITDA was $234 million, up 6.9%, with an EBITDA margin of 14%. Our net profit after tax was $168 million, up 7.7%, and EPS was up 9.2%, to 23.2 cents. Net cash at the end of the period was $969 million, up $212 million compared to June 23, and our operational cash conversion improved to 126%. Revenue growth for the year was again driven by our China segment, which was up 14%, while our ANZ segment was down 15%, reflecting the change in our English label distribution strategy. US sales were up 8%, while NBM sales were down 11%. From a category perspective, we grew total IMF sales by 4.6%, with China label sales up 9.5% and English label sales flat. Sales in our liquid milk businesses both grew, up 3% in ANZ and 7% in the US. And lastly, sales in our other nutritionals category also grew more substantially by 37%. Moving to slide six, beyond our financial results, I'm very pleased with what our team has achieved this year from an operational perspective. and I've called out some of those over the next couple of pages, including growing our IMF sales by 4.6% when the market was down over 10%, launching and transitioning our upgraded China label product successfully, gaining share in VCD cities and online, improving China brand health, developing our distribution partnership with Yuo, launching our new English label product, A2 Gentle Gold, and accelerating growth in other nutritionals. And on the next page, the more highlights, continuing to drive lactose-free growth in Australia, improving U.S. profitability significantly, completing our growth study for FDA approval, expanding our English label supply chain partners, and making significant progress on our sustainability program. Moving to slide eight, since we refreshed our strategy in 2021, the China IMF market has been more challenging than we expected. but is showing some improvement in trajectory, as indicated by the chart on the right-hand side of the page, for the total market and its China label and English label components. In FY24, the total China IMF market declined by 10.7% in value, with the decline in key and A cities greater than BCD. The China label IMF market declined by 12.5% in value terms, driven by the combination of volume pressure and higher promotional activity during the GB transition period. English label IMF outperformed the overall market significantly, up 3.8% in value. The A2 type protein segment grew rapidly and now accounts for 18% of the total market value, and brand concentration continues to increase among the top players, particularly the top five. Turning to the next page, we are extremely pleased with how our China label business has performed in FY24. It was a critical year with the launch and transition to our upgraded A2 Jirtu product. It's difficult to explain how complicated and challenging such a transition is to manage, and our team and partners executed perfectly and achieved record market share at the same time. An amazing achievement. Li Zhao will talk to this in more detail shortly. Moving to page 10, we are also pleased to see an improvement in English label performance, with the total market returning to growth and A2 sales growing in the second half. Johan and the rest of our team have been executing various initiatives to drive growth over the past couple of years, and it's pleasing to see this coming through in our results. In fact, we achieved our highest English label market share since April 2021. Moving to the next page, and we're very proud that A2 has become a top five brand in the total China IMF market, with a value share of 7.3%, up 1.4 percentage points for the year. This includes being a top 10 brand in the China label IMF market with almost 5% share and the clear number two player in the English label market with over 20% share, both of which improved in FY24. Turning to slide 12 and taking a closer look at our other nutritionals and liquid milk businesses. Other nutritional sales grew 37% driven by more dedicated team structure, improved supply and innovation. Liquid milk sales grew 4.8% with lactose-free growth in Australia and grass-fed growth in the US being key drivers. Eleanor and Kevin will cover our liquid milk businesses in more detail shortly. So in summary, our results in FY24 were in line with our expectations and reflected strong execution by our team. Moving now to slide 13 and our outlook for FY25. I'll make a few comments here but also direct you to our results commentary and outlook released this morning where we have the full version of our FY25 outlook. In terms of market growth, we're expecting a further decline in the China IMF market in FY25. The company is expecting mid-single digit revenue growth in FY25, with growth affected by IMF supply constraints, which are expected to be resolved in the first half. Gross margins are expected to be broadly similar to FY24, with the first half down, impacted by air freight, and the second half up. Brand reinvestment rates are expected to be similar, and SG&A is expected to be similar to down as a percent of sales. Overall, EBITDA margins as a percentage of revenue expected to be broadly similar to FY24, with the first half down and the second half up compared to prior year. Cash conversion is expected to be less than 100%, mainly due to the Sinle settlement, and CapEx is expected to be approximately $20 million. Moving now to a brief strategy update. Slide 14 shows our growth strategy on a page which is focused on five key priorities. Our strategy hasn't changed and is focused on capturing the full potential of the China market with supply chain transformation a key priority. Moving to slide 15, this slide shows how we are tracking towards our medium-term goals reflected in our measures of success. Overall, we're making solid progress against the plan with a few changes here since our update at the half. In the people section, we have added gender pay gap as a measure and marked it as work in progress, so we have more work to do here to reduce the gap. Under market share, we have marked O2O and Daigo share as work in progress, given its decline from FY23 to FY24. Australian fresh milk share has improved, while US share is work in progress. In innovation, the only change is US sales from new products. While this was positive for the year, it was slightly lower than what we had been targeting. Under supply chain, we've marked service as work in progress given the challenges we are currently experiencing with IMF supply. Under shareholders, our expectation for US and MDM profitability has moved out to FY27, and we've marked the US as work in progress until we have more clarity on our IMF opportunity and potential investment levels. Moving to slide 16, which is another slide we've been reporting our progress against, We've defined our medium-term financial ambition to grow revenue from $1.2 billion in FY21 to approximately $2 billion by FY27 or later, and to target EBITDA margins in the teens with year-on-year improvement. From FY21 to date, we've grown revenue by $469 million and improved our EBITDA margin to 14%. Our China-labeled IMF growth is on track with significant share gains. English-labeled IMF growth is behind plan due to the market decline, particularly in the Daigo channel, and lower share gains to date. that is showing signs of improvement. Overall, we are on track to deliver our medium-term revenue ambition by FY27 or later, with EBITDA margin improvement a key focus. Turning to slide 17, we thought it might be helpful to conceptualize how we are thinking about the growth in our IMF portfolio over the next few years. For simplicity, we presented this chart based on China market definitions of price segments being ultra-premium, super-premium, premium, and mainstream. From left to right, you can see the indicative positioning of our current English label products, the 3.3% market share being A2 Platinum and our recently launched A2 Gentle Gold, with a third of product to be positioned in the premium to super premium segment targeted to launch in FY25. We then show our China label A2 Jertu product playing in the ultra premium segment with 4% market share. Our ambition is to have at least another three China label registrations over time. In connection with the Sinle dispute resolution, we expect to access an additional China label registration slot at Sinle's Dun Sandal site, subject to SAMR approval. And additional China label registrations are being explored through our supply chain transformation strategy. This brings me to slide 18. The resolution of disputes with Sinle improves IMF supply chain certainty and flexibility for A2. In essence, we have conditionally resolved our Sinle arbitration disputes relating to exclusivity, pricing, and other matters. subject to Sinle completing its proposed equity raise and refinancing. We have also agreed to support and subscribe for shares under Sinle's equity raise on terms to be agreed, which will be set out in Sinle's notice of meeting. Hopefully our announcement on Friday was clear, but I'm happy to clarify any questions you may have during Q&A. Turning to page 19, we are very conscious of the significant amount of cash we have on our balance sheet at year end. Our capital allocation framework prioritises investment in growth initiatives ahead of returning capital to shareholders, Consistent with this, priority has been given to transforming and de-risking our supply chain to enable future growth focused on investment in New Zealand and China. We're continuing to explore M&A and JV opportunities, which may require significant capital investment. Once our supply chain transformation is further developed and other investment opportunities are considered, to the extent there is a capital surplus to achieving our priorities, the board will make a disciplined assessment of the potential return of capital to shareholders and the most appropriate option to do so. And lastly, on page 20, I wanted to highlight the significant progress we've made this year towards achieving our planet-related goals through our sustainability program, particularly in relation to emissions reduction. There have been two key milestones during the year. Firstly, the electrification of the boiler at MVM, which has reduced scope one and two emissions by 45%, with more to come this year. And secondly, our investment in AgriZero, which we're pleased to have the opportunity to join this year alongside other industry stakeholders and governments. I'll now hand over to Dave to cover our financials in more detail.

speaker
Dave Musket
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, David. Good morning, everyone. Moving to slide 22 and a summary of our group P&L. We delivered net sales revenue of $1.67 billion, up 5.2% on prior year. This reflected strong growth in the China and other Asia and USA segments, partially offset by a decrease in the ANZ segment and MVM. Moving down through the P&L, gross margin of 45.8% was down 0.6 percentage points on last year. mainly due to a $10 million accelerated depreciation related to MVM's coal-fired boiler and was otherwise flat to last year. Our distribution expenses were slightly lower thanks to improved USA distribution costs due to lower freight rates and an increased focus on optimising customer cost to serve. Investment in marketing was higher in dollar terms to $280 million with a focus on China and the support for the launch and transition of our upgraded China-labeled IMF products. Our administrative and other expenses were 3% higher due to capability and other investments, partially offset by lower LTI expenses and reduced hedge losses. And interest income increased, reflecting our higher cash balances and increased market interest rates. Overall, our net profit after tax increased 7.7% to $168 million, with basic EPS up 9.2% to 23.2 cents per share. Slide 23 shows our segment performance. You can see on this slide the significant growth in our China and other Asia segment of 14% for both revenue and EBITDA. It also shows the impact of the deliberate shift of English label IMF distribution from the Daigao channel in our ANZ segment to more direct channels in the China segment, such as CBEC and O2O. This explains most of the ANZ segment being down 14.6% in revenue and 32.6% in EBITDA. The USA segment grew 8%, and importantly, we improved EBITDA by 33.7% to a full-year loss of $15.5 million that included some costs related to pursuing long-term FDA approval. NVM's external sales decreased 11%, reflecting lower GDT auction prices and a higher level of insourced A2 milk company sales. And finally, the lower EBITDA in the corporate segment was mainly driven by capability investment in our central supply chain function, and further investment into sustainability and science. Moving to slide 24, which summarizes our performance from a category perspective, our total IMF sales were up 4.6% despite a very challenging China IMF market. Over 90% of our IMF sales are now through the China and other Asia segments, achieving 1 billion of sales in that segment in FY24 and representing an increase in sales since FY21 of 90%. This slide also shows the accelerating growth of the other nutritional category, with a 36.7% increase in sales for the year. This category includes plain and fortified milk powders and liquid milk exported into the China and other Asian markets, which Johan will discuss further. Turning to slide 25, here you can see gross margin percentage of 45.8% for the year, down 0.6 percentage points. Following the successful commissioning of MVM's high pressure electrode boiler, we accelerated the depreciation of its coal-fired boiler. This represented a $10 million impact to gross margin. Excluding this non-cash impact, gross margin percentage was otherwise flat. Improvements in MVM and US gross margins were offset by a slight decrease in IMF margins due to high input costs for China label offset in dollar but not percentage terms by price rises and a lower mix of English label Daigao sales relative to CBEX sales. Moving to slide 26, consistent with our growth strategy, our marketing investment has increased significantly in absolute terms and in percentage and as a percentage of sales. This reflected the continued step up in China investment and support for the transition to our upgraded China label product. Joe will provide more color in his section. SG&A in absolute terms, SG&A increased in absolute terms due to the continued investment in China and supply chain and was partly mitigated by a reduction in LTI expenses. As the percentage of sales SG&A decreased versus FY23. Moving to slide 27, which shows our cash flow, we achieved net operating cash flow of 255.7 million and cash conversion of 126%, both significantly higher than prior year. The higher cash conversion was due to lower payments in FY24 made for China label stock as all opening China label stock was manufactured before the end of February 23 and was paid for in FY23. It also reflected amounts withheld from Sinlei payments subject to dispute resolution to be paid in FY25 and it reflected large catch-up payments in China in FY23 due to COVID-19 related delays that impacted FY22 payments which were outside the company's control. Our total net cash at the end of the period was $969 million, 28% higher than FY23. On slide 28, our balance sheet remained strong and was further strengthened in FY24 via significant operating cash flows and lower working capital. Inventories were 7.1% or $13.8 million lower, resulting from reduced IMF stock with lower English label stock that was high at the end of last year and lower early stage IMF stock due to sales performance. Other current assets were higher due to the timing of IMF purchase deposits impacted by the FY23 China label stock build, whilst other non-current assets reduced by $31.6 million, mainly due to the devaluation of the company's investment in Sinlei. Trade and other payables were higher, mainly due to higher payments made in FY23 for the China label stock build. That completes the financial overview, and so I'll hand over to Li Zhao to take you through the strong performance of our China label business.

speaker
Li Zhao
China Regional Leader

Thank you, Dave. Starting on slide 30, it has been a milestone year for the China team. The China MF market and the broader environment have been very challenging, but we have performed strongly again. Most importantly, we successfully launched and transitioned our new GB registered China label MF product, a high-end plan. The launch and the transition was supported by a large-scale integrated marketing campaign. Another highlight, was further extending from business plan into more regional key accounts and increase our offline distribution in lower tier cities with BCD cities, which was the biggest driver of offline growth in FY24. We also improved new user recruitment in online channels, achieving sales growth and historical high share in domestic online. We also continue to grow our other nutritionals delivering strong growth across fresh milk, UHT, and adult milk powder. Turning to slide 31, and looking at the results for China label, we grew revenue 9.5% to $612.3 million for FY24. We achieved this growth despite the China label market declining 12.5%, and in a period of heightened volatility with the IMF market transitioning to new GB registered products and the wider China and the economic pressures. We are pleased that our new product continues to resonate with consumers and has been well received by the trade. Our successful GB transition was underpinned by diligent planning and execution with a minimum product write-off incurred. Our strong performance and the momentum resulted in record market share and being a leading share gainer. In MBS, our share is up to 3.5% and in Dole, our share is up to 3.9%. Moving to slide 32, this slide describes the upgraded formula and the packaging with our new GV product. We invested in a significant campaign launch during the second half to support the transition. These include integrated marketing across high traffic and high impact auto home advertising, new point of sales material, install testing, and the training of promotional people as brand ambassador. Slide 33 highlights how we integrated the campaign execution, including collaboration with key account customers, a significant contribution from the install promotional team. under the Octonauts collaboration leveraged through install activation. Slide 34 shows the opportunity we developed through our Octonauts collaboration to maximize online and offline Explorer. This was integrated across traditional and the digital channel and in high impact sales channel to drive awareness. Turning to slide 35, we were pleased with our performance in DAO In FY24, we focused on early stage products and the new users, collaborated with key dog accounts, and utilized live streaming events and online store management. Moving to slide 36, our hard work has again translated into new highs in our brand metrics. Total brand awareness is up to 66%, and unprompted and top of mind awareness increased our trial and the loyalty metrics also increased. These results give us confidence in our marketing investment, the power of our brand, and our positioning in the market. Slide 37 shows our performance in MBS for the period on a national basis and also split by Q&A and the BCD cities. Our record market share in MBS was driven by our growth in BCD cities. Our overall market share grew to 3.5%, with slight decline in Q&A, more than offset by our share increase in BCD, which is the largest portion of the market. Moving to slide 38, we grew in new stores, as well as achieving some modest like-for-like growth in mature stores. You can see in this slide the impact from deactivated stores. Our distribution was broadly stable, with a numerical and weighted distribution constant at 28% and 48%, respectively, based on use and data. With our push into BCD, our numerical distribution increased to 26% and the VD distribution to 44%. Turning to slide 39, online growth or offline sales growth in FY24. We achieved record market share in DOLL of 3.9%. And our market share is now higher than in DAO than in MBS. We achieved strong growth with Tmall and GD, and are continuing to pursue growth in emerging online content-based channels such as Douyin, TikTok, and Red, which generated significant growth in the period. Slide 40 shows market share movements by AdMob brand in the MBS and the DAO channels. We are a leading share gainer in both the MBS and the DAO channels. Slide 41 highlights that we have gained share in virtually all stages across MBS and DAO. In MBS, we have higher share growth in early stages. In DAO, we delivered share growth across all stages with continual strong share gains in early stages, a healthy indicator that the channel is growing rather than the consumer switching from offline. Now I will hand over to Johan to take you through English Label IMF.

speaker
Johansson Ratney
Regional Leader – English Label IMF

Thank you, Xiao, and good morning, everyone. Moving to slide 42. In English Label IMF, we are pleased with our performance for FY24 with a number of key points to highlight. During FY24, in CBEC, we focused on direct account management and emerging social e-commerce platforms. Combined with investment in a significant brand campaign in the first half, This contributed towards a steady overall English-label market share and awareness in China. We continued to optimize our route-to-market model through dropshipping, which has shortened lead types from manufacturer to consumer and lowered trade inventory requirements. Our relationship with Euro in O2O has resulted in greater distribution and increased share. We were also excited to launch new products with A2 Gentle Gold in IMF, and A2 Immune and A2 Move in fortified milk powders for adults, and commencing shipments of IMF to Vietnam. Moving to the result itself on slide 43. The overall English label IMF market grew in value by 3.8%. CBEC grew 11% and O2O by 5.5%. This was largely offset by continued weakness in the Daigu channel, which was down 14.3%. Our FY24 revenue was $546.4 million, broadly in line with FY23. Our second half revenue was $17.4 million higher than the first half. Looking at the English label channels more closely, our CBEC revenue, including O2O, increased 16% and now represents 82% of all English label sales. This performance reflects our strategic decision to focus more on control channels. Our ANZ IMF revenue decreased 39.4% versus FY23, also reflecting in part our strategic focus more on controlled channels. We are starting to see signs of stabilization in the English-label market. The charts on slide 44 show channel growth rates in key NA cities on the left versus BCD cities on the right. In both charts, you can see that the rates of market decline have reduced in FY24 versus FY23. In Q&A cities, total English label CBEK and O2O grew, whilst the decline in Daigo channel slowed. In BCD cities, the total English label and CBEK grew, whilst Daigo and O2O declined, slowed. Slide 45 shows the composition of English label market sales by channel and major platform. This highlights that CBEK is now over half of English label. It also highlights the growth in Doyin TikTok, which is a key emerging platform. Slide 46 shows a stabilization in our overall English-label market share. Kantar data shows our total English-label share across all channels at 20.2%. Our CBEC channel share is 20.5%, and our O2O and DIGA share is 19.7%. Both have declined slightly since FY23, but are above FY22 levels. It's important to note differences in movements between total English-label market share and channel market shares, may be due to scope and sample size limitations at a channel level. Slide 47 highlights our integrated brand and e-commerce campaign approach, aiming to drive awareness and trial. In April, we held a Super Brand Day with JD, which included activation on major digital platforms through paid and owned channels, combined with store live streaming, driving to in-store sales conversion. The result was a 35% growth in offtake and a 55% increase in new users. with the majority of offtake in early stage products. On slide 48, we highlight some of the opportunities we are pursuing in emerging markets. Our focus is on expanding our reach and product portfolio. In Korea, we're expanding retail distribution with UHT and IMF. In Singapore, we're arranging fresh milk with major retailers. And in Vietnam, we are launching our IMF and macro milk portfolio. Finally, Slide 49 highlights the new products launched in FY24. We expanded our IMF portfolio with A2 Gentle Gold, as well as launched our new fortified milk powder range, targeting adults and seniors. With that, I'll now hand over to our Managing Director for ANZ and Strategy, Eleanor Core.

speaker
Eleanor Corr
Managing Director – ANZ & Strategy

Thanks, Johan, and hello, everyone. A key highlight for us in FY24 was the relaunch of the A2 milk brand in Australia, supported by new packaging and a new advertising campaign. In addition, we continue to focus on growing A2 milk lactose-free, investing in price and marketing activities to drive awareness, trial, and brand penetration. We also expanded our liquid milk portfolio into new sizes and formats. Within our supply chain, we completed our first methane inhibitor feasibility study on farms, completed a site upgrade at Smeaton Grange, and continue to progress the carbon upgrade. From a business impact perspective, these activities contributed to achieving new highs in top of mind and spontaneous awareness and in trial conversion. A2 milk being ranked as the number one dairy brand in FY24, achieving 11.5% overall dairy milk share and 13.7% share of the lactose-free segment, maintaining strong household penetration rates at 15.1%, and A2 milk having the highest consumer loyalty of branded milk players. Turning to slide 51, In terms of net sales revenue, we delivered growth of 3.3% to $190.2 million. In a challenging macroeconomic environment which saw consumers shift to private label products, our growth in Australia was pleasing with lactose-free continuing to perform well and core volume stabilising in the second half following our brand relaunch. Slide 52 highlights our marketing investment in FY24. Our refreshed packaging delivers stronger on-shelf impact, Our new TVC reinforces our key A1 protein-free difference, and we invested in driving awareness and trial of lactose-free, supporting our significant market share gains. And with that, I'll now hand over to Kevin to take you through our U.S. business.

speaker
Kevin Bush
Managing Director – USA

Thank you, Eleanor. A quick update on the U.S. business today. It's been a significant year, and I am pleased with the progress we have made on a number of key initiatives. In particular, we launched A2 Platinum IMF in the U.S., trialing a mix of different sales and marketing approaches. We made meaningful progress on our goal to obtain long-term FDA IMF approval. We continue to grow our liquid milk business, supported by innovations such as our grass-fed product. We further optimized our supply chain, including new agreements with our co-manufacturers. And importantly, we significantly improved our landed margins, reducing reported losses. Turning to slide 54, we grew revenue during the year by 8.2% to $113.7 million. This was mainly driven by innovation, supported by lower trade spend on our core liquid milk range. Our EBITDA loss of $15.5 million was down from a loss of $23.3 million in FY23. This was a significant focus for us during the year and will be going forward and was achieved through reduced promotional activities reduced SG&A costs, partly offset by higher costs incurred with respect to pursuing long-term FDA approval. Our market share in the premium milk category was slightly down to 2.2%. We commenced distribution of IMF, and we remain on track to submit our new infant formula notification. With this investment in IMF, it is now more likely the USA business will achieve profitability by FY27. with the USA liquid milk business achieving break-even contribution margin in FY26. Turning to slide 55, which essentially covers the progress to date with regards to long-term IMF approval, we have ticked off a number of key milestones over the past 12 months, in particular the completion of our growth monitoring study. And we remain on track to submit our NIFIN during the first quarter of 25 with long-term approval targeted during FY26. And with that, I'll hand back to David Bordelus.

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Thanks, Steve. A few quick points on MVM before we move to Q&A. MVM reported net sales revenue of $101 million down versus FY23 due to lower GDT pricing and higher insourced A2 sales, which were eliminated on consolidation. EBITDA losses were reduced from $26.5 million in FY23 to $20.5 million, reflecting an improvement in nutritional sales next. plus continued cost and productivity focused across the site. Importantly, we commenced production of A2 Platinum Stage 4 base powder in FY24, as well as supplying A1 protein-free powder for A2 Gentle Gold and other products in the portfolio. Whilst our team continues to work on a range of initiatives to achieve break-even, including at this stage, we're more likely, actually, sorry, for the profitability to be achieved by FY27, mainly due to the time required to build capability and to develop, trial and scale new products. I'll pause there and with that pass back to David Akers for Q&A.

speaker
David Akers
Group Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, David. I'll ask that when we take questions, I'll limit it to two questions and then please rejoin the queue. Darcy, can you please open for questions?

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Tom Kirath from Baron Joey. Please go ahead.

speaker
Tom Kirath

Morning, guys. Can I just check whether the MVM and US losses are expected to reduce in 25 and if that's kind of included in your outlook statement there?

speaker
Dave Musket
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, yeah, Tom. Yeah, they are expected to reduce and that is included in our outlook statement.

speaker
Tom Kirath

Okay, great. And secondly, can you just elaborate on what the supply constraints are in the first half 25? Note that you're kind of flagging, I suppose, a bit weaker performance in the first half. Just when is that going to be resolved and what are the moving parts there in that issue, please?

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Cool. I'll answer that. So, a combination of a couple of factors. Firstly, we finished FY24 with slightly lower stock than we had planned for. And that was really because of fourth quarter sales and DC shipments, distributed shipments in China were pretty strong in the fourth quarter. So that mainly in relation to early stage products, particularly our trial packs and 400 gram tins. And then secondly, after year end, we've experienced supply constraints in infant. These are being addressed at the moment, and we expect these to be resolved in the first half. But they're likely to constrain our sales in the first half, and we're also likely to incur significant air freight in the first half to catch up ahead of sea freight shipments. And I guess lastly, the harder impact for us to quantify would be in relation to news acquisition. It's always difficult to assess what that impact would be and the rolling impact of that going forward. But that's sort of I hope that gives you some colour on the islands we're facing at the moment. It's not unusual in our industry. We've experienced this before. Last year, it was more in relation to English label. This year, it's more in relation to China label. Got it.

speaker
David Akers
Group Head of Investor Relations

Great. Thanks, David.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Matt Montgomery from Fawcett Bar. Please go ahead.

speaker
Matt Montgomery

Hi, David. Good morning. Just following up on Tom's second question there, I was just wondering if you could please, I guess, attempt to quantify the net drag of the supply constraints and also what gross margins may have or may well net out at X, the air freight headwind. I'm just trying to get a sense of, I guess, the materiality of what you're calling out.

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Hi, Matt. We're not providing specific guidance on the sales drag. It's hard to be too detailed on that. I mean, it'll have a significant impact on gross margin. What I could help you with, though, is the air freight is likely to be quite significant. So it could be $10 million or more over what we ordinarily experience. We do have air freight from time to time, but nothing of this magnitude.

speaker
Matt Montgomery

Okay, maybe we'll take it more offline. Then just on your supply chain, I guess post-Friday, my view at least was that investors probably had more foresight on the CapEx profile of the business over the next few years, i.e.

speaker
Kevin Bush
Managing Director – USA

you're putting... How much capital do you think you need and 15%, 16% EBITDA, Mark?

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

I think the term that used was more from their point of view, but from our point of view, we have an incremental cost of certain of our products, and that's what we have with Thinlite. So when I refer to conversion costs, that's that part of it, and the ingredients costs we work together on to achieve the optimum mix of quality and term and service and costs related to those. So that's different. So it's a relatively immaterial impact on... our product costs and margins associated with the settlement agreement. Like very small.

speaker
spk03

Okay, understood. Maybe the second question, either for yourself or Johan, but just in terms of the English label category, like in terms of value share, I think you've noted it's gone to 17% while it's 15%. Where do you see that settling in the next couple of years? Do you think that the trend is you know, towards 20 or, like, can you just give us a bit more depth? Obviously, paying yourself an optimal kind of 65% of that.

speaker
Johansson Ratney
Regional Leader – English Label IMF

Yeah, so, Adrian, just in terms of that split, you're referring to the English level share of the total market, China IMF market, which has improved. I think, you know, if you look back in time, back to pre-pandemic, that rate was a lot higher, obviously, and English label has been impacted by COVID and hence that ratio has come down. I think the improvement in the ratio is driven by a couple of things. So the first is, of course, no longer having the pandemic and that being a headwind to consumer choice. Second thing is, of course, in the current environment, English label products are considered to be more value for money and that's influencing consumer choice. And then lastly, if we look particularly at CBEK and O2O and look at the competitor set, it's not only Fezzan's label products, it's also products from Hong Kong and also from Europe. And some of the new products from Hong Kong and Europe have ingredients that are particularly attractive. An example of that would be HMO. And so those new products that contain some of those new ingredients are having particularly strong growth. So it's a factor of all of those that's driving the English label share. It's hard for me to say exactly where that would end up, but it's good to see that the momentum is back towards English label. Or was it 23% pre-pandemic?

speaker
spk00

23%.

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Who knows? I mean, it may increase a couple of points towards 20%, but I'm not sure at this stage we'd be expecting it to go into the finals.

speaker
spk03

OK, no, that's good. Can I just think of one last one? Just... Just when you, like, say if you take Immune and Move, when you launch those products, like, how long does it sort of take for you to be sort of net positive at the contribution margin? Like, how much marketing support is required up front for those kind of products?

speaker
Johansson Ratney
Regional Leader – English Label IMF

Yeah, so there is a little bit of marketing support. I think what helps first is that Immune and Move build upon an existing portfolio. So we had the tub, the plain milk tub launched first And then you have Immune and Move building on top. So it leverages a little bit of the marketing support already put towards the plain milk tub. But we invest in a little bit ahead, so probably about, say, six months ahead of overall payback. But ultimately, once it hits a steady state, we try to make sure that all the marketing investment is in line with the revenue generated. Fortifieds. you know, faster growing and higher margin product.

speaker
spk03

Correct. So in the second half, there would be a little bit of a drag from those new products in the actual margin contribution or in marketing costs, I suppose.

speaker
Johansson Ratney
Regional Leader – English Label IMF

Yes, so some of that marketing cost happened in FY24 and a little bit will continue into FY25 and then we'll continue to expand the portfolio as well.

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

So they should have a positive contribution in FY25.

speaker
spk03

Okay, thank you for the answers.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Richard Barwick from CLSA. Please go ahead.

speaker
Richard Barwick

Good morning all. I've just got a question about the $2 billion revenue target and where Matura Valley Milk fits into that. So am I right in saying you're assuming that MVM would be, by the time we get to an FY27, that MBM would be close to zero revenue contribution? And as part of that, how should we be thinking about that transit or the progress at Matura Valley Milk in the context of the dispute resolution with Sinle and the potential shifting of English Label into Matura Valley Milk?

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Hi, Richard. It's David. I mean, MBM will help enable and develop our nutritional manufacturing supply capability in time. It'll help us with innovation in English labels, but it won't help us in that timeframe through to 27 from the China label market access and growth point of view, which I noticed before. So whilst it might help us incrementally with growth, the bigger opportunity is to build capabilities for the future and also to work on reducing those losses over time, which we've said that we'll do that by FY27. So it's more of a, financially, it's more of a loss mitigation earnings contribution in a way going forward. And when you think about, it won't be whilst the internalisation of those sales for A2 will reduce the external reported sales revenue over time from MVM, it's unlikely to be zero at that point. And the reason why I say that, like say for a For example, even, and this is not, I'm not saying these are our plans, but if you took even our total English-label portfolio, and if we were to fully insource that over time, I mean, you're talking about half the capacity of MBM. It's not all of the capacity. So we might be producing some other powdered and fortified products, but we're still likely to still be producing some ingredient products on the commodity market, particularly at the peak of the milk curve when we can't produce everything. nutritional products. So it's likely that insourcing or innovation will reduce external sales, but it's unlikely to eliminate it.

speaker
Richard Barwick

Okay. Well, I just think that's important for us to understand because in the context of the group targets, the $2 billion revenue at your teens and rising margin, then I imagine mature value milk can actually have quite an impact because you'll end up with lower So I take it it's not going to be zero, but presumably a positive EBITDA by then. So it would have quite a material impact on margin.

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Agreed. It's a strain on the top line and hopefully an opportunity on the bottom line.

speaker
Richard Barwick

Yeah. Okay. Thank you. And the second question is just on birth rate. I know you mentioned that you're still expecting positive this calendar year. I think your wording is sort of back into decline after that or words to that effect. Is there anything you can add in terms of what you're seeing or hearing in market as to how positive the birth rate's looking for coming through calendar 24?

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Well, it's difficult to be specific. We look at lots of different data points and they still all suggest that, well, mostly suggest that the calendar year 24 number will be higher than what was reported in the prior year, which is the 9 million. So somewhere, hopefully, you know, somewhere between, say, 9 and 10 million and hopefully sort of towards the higher end of that. Who knows? We'll wait and see how that develops. Our statement about the longer term is that just You know, when you think about the socio-demographic trends in the market, there's probably, you know, I think we'd all agree that there's downward pressure on the birth rate over time. That doesn't necessarily mean that it's, you know, calendar year 25 will be down. We're not saying that. That's uncertain at the moment. But when you look into calendar 26, 27, beyond, like it's likely to have that pressure. Absent sort of changes in that or more? more substantive policy intervention or other factors that's likely to occur. But having said that, it's still a massive market for us and we're still relatively small share and got a big opportunity ahead of us. And also we're looking at growth opportunities outside of infant as well and other nutritionals is a great example of that up 37% and now $110 million business.

speaker
Richard Barwick

Yep. Okay. That's great. Thanks, David.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Phil Kimber from E&P Capital. Please go ahead.

speaker
Phil Kimber

First question was just around early stage infant milk formula. I was looking at one of your slides, I think it's slide 41. Your market share improvements in that early stage product is significantly better than the other stages and I think you're alluding to effectively that you had too lower early stage inventory because of sales in the fourth quarter were so strong. Is that correct? And I guess what's driving such particularly strong numbers in the early stage product, which, you know, if you're going to have one of your stages strong, that's the best one to be strong because you've got another, you know, two or three years of strong sales in theory as a result. But if you can get a bit more colour around that, it'd be great.

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Yes, I thought that... Your summary of that is correct. In terms of the inventory, I'll let Shao talk to the drivers of early stage growth, but yes, we did, as I said at the outset, we did have lower, we finished the year with lower early stage inventory, both in English Label and China Label, particularly China Label, and I mentioned the sort of the starter pack, the trial pack that we used, the 400 gram tins were assured on as well. Not that we didn't have any inventory, it's just lower, and then when you couple that together with supply constraints that it creates a problem for us that we're managing at the moment. But Xiao, do you want to comment on the drivers of early stage growth in China level?

speaker
Li Zhao
China Regional Leader

Yes. Hi, this is Li Xiao. So, I mean, early stage is always, I mean, the focus of the China business because we know it decides your future growth. So it's always about your discipline and balance allocation of your budget, where you are spending on driving your growth. I mean, this year growth versus the future growth. Saying that, I mean, coming to this fiscal year, it's what we call the dragon baby boom year. And then there's even more focus, deliberate effort from the team. Like, I mean, there's both, I mean, new user, early stage new user recruitment, cross online, offline, and also the medical channel. Plus, I mean, it's across EL and CL. So you can see there are a lot of good initiatives, like we share in the half-year review about what we call the Baby Swimming Center, which is for the early stage. There's an increased mama class on the maternity center. And also we kind of, I mean, mobilize all resources on the medical, I mean, platform. I mean, recruit more users with endorsement and support of the And also you can see on the online, I mean, the focus is also to get more user, new user order. I mean, we launched what we call the maternity pack, which basically is a package for the pregnant woman. I mean, when they have a baby, I mean, they have the whole package solution. And plus, I mean, some smaller child pack for the baby child usage. So there was quite a lot of initiative and effort as well as budget. allocate to this new user recruitment, leverage the dragon baby year so that we have more new users in the pipeline for the future growth.

speaker
Phil Kimber

Awesome. Thank you. And then a question, just corporate costs, and I think I've got this right, were up quite significantly. They were down in the first half and then up about $10 million. at the EBITDA level in the second half. I couldn't see any commentary on that. I might have missed it. But what was specifically driving that? Is it just sort of switching between halves or was there something unusual in the second half that isn't going to carry on next year?

speaker
Dave Musket
Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Phil, it's Dave. So I think we might have said this at the half that our corporate costs would be weighted towards the second half. So it's mainly timing of certain... I'll call them project costs or more related to science, so research, sustainability, et cetera. They're not necessarily one-off, so they're likely to recur from an annual perspective, but they were more phased to the second half. And I think our FX losses, which a lot of it sits in corporate, were skewed to the second half as well. So it's a combination of FX and just the timing of certain corporate costs.

speaker
Phil Kimber

Great. So that full year number and growth rate is sort of sensible, but don't fixate on the half year timing. Is that fair?

speaker
Dave Musket
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Yeah. Think about the full year. I mean, we're increasing capability during the year. So, you know, there might be some of that sort of run rate to come through next year. And then you probably just need to pull out the FX and take a view of what the FX will do next year or take it out completely. Yeah.

speaker
Phil Kimber

Great. Thank you. Yeah, perfect. Thanks.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Lisa Dang from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

speaker
Lisa Dang

Hi. I've got two questions. The first is around the starter packs that were quite strong in the fourth quarter. So if I look on also that page 41, we were up 26% for DOL and then 14% for MBS. I'm surprised that doesn't translate into higher potential sales into FY25. So are we saying that 5% revenue growth is mainly due to a supply gap as opposed to a conversion issues? And then I think also on 400 gram tins, I saw a lot of gift with purchase, especially if we sign up with new member. Is that part of the reason for that margin drag in the second half as well? That's the first question.

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Lisa, it's David. I'll let Dave comment on margin. The start of tax, just bear in mind that those numbers on page 41 are share numbers. So you've got the total China market going backwards by over 10% during the year. But yes, generally, obviously, if we acquire new users in stage one and two, we have good loyalty with our brand that it follows through into stage three. So it is impacted in part by that in the near term. We'll hopefully get another opportunity to acquire some of those users, but it does have an impact on sales. Our growth is not solely driven by that, but it does temper the opportunity that we have in FY2025. And to David's question earlier, we would have hoped to be guiding potentially to a higher sales result. But at the moment, I think mid-single digits is a fair assumption at the moment. But that's also, again, bearing in mind, we do expect the FY25, the total market to decline in China as well. But it's still representing pretty significant share gains.

speaker
Lisa Dang

And was the 400 starter packs like a margin, a lower margin?

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Yes, they're lower margin.

speaker
Lisa Dang

Yeah, okay. Okay, the second question.

speaker
Dave Musket
Chief Financial Officer

Sorry, Lisa, you referred to the margin drag in the second half. Just to be clear, and we pointed it out in the presentation, that we depreciated an additional $10 million. Yeah. That's gone through cost of sales, so that's impacting our margin in the second half.

speaker
Lisa Dang

Yeah, so then like if I actually reverse back that $10 million in the second half, the margin, the GP margin for the group is actually up year on year. So that's why I'm confused, right? Like we've actually spent more on starter packs, which are lower margin, but the margin X for $10 million is up. um and then also it's a great move if we can convert it to demand into 25 but then we've spent so much on this 400 gram starter pack we've actually then stocked out in the first half when we can't catch it so it's a like i'm just is that kind of what happened sorry lisa we're probably you're trying we're trying to give a little bit of color on what's happening with our inventory and the constraints we're facing at the moment so

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

We don't spend an enormous amount of money on the starter packs on the 400 gram tins. They are lower margin. They're used as, and they're sold online and in store, but also used as part of a starter pack and gift with purchase and exile. So don't think that that is the kind of key driver of that. I was just trying to give a little bit of color around how our inventory levels have been impacted by this. And I just said, look, it's more in, you know, I guess it's more in China level. It's more in early stage. And, you know, I just gave an example, particularly in the 400 gram tins. Got it. But the gross margin movements, you know, that's not driving a big impact on that.

speaker
Lisa Dang

I see. I see. OK, cool. The second question, if I may, is then why do we want extra three sets of China label registration? Because I see that there's a big overlap in terms of price points. And then also with the English label doing super premium soon as well, like there's a very large overlap in price points. So capability or formula-wise, what would be the differentiation?

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Yeah, so that chart that we shared was conceptual. We're just indicating that we'd like to expand our China label range over time and they'll be at similar or different price points to our current G2 range and they'll have different benefit propositions and formulations for our consumers going forward. But we're not going to talk about that explicitly because that's obviously commercially sensitive. But when we look at the China label market overall, if you look at the top 10 players that we've listed, top 10 brands, their China label portfolio ranges from three to, I think, 27 brands that they have registered slots. And so that enables them to, those competitors, to appeal to More consumer needs as you segment the market and also to manage the trade more effectively over time. And we're not saying that we need anywhere near 20 registrations, but a handful of registrations would be very helpful for us to manage the trade more effectively. English label, we are free to innovate and bring new products to market. Our range is expanding from one to three and it may do so more in the future. We're just providing an indication to the market of what to expect in the coming years. We talked about this originally back in 2021 when we outlined our strategy refresh, but we just thought because of us bringing new English label product to market last year and this year currently, and also having the opportunity to gain an extra slot with Sinle over time, we just want to provide a little bit of context around that.

speaker
Lisa Dang

And then in terms of the 1 billion potentially looking for M&A, would we consider a sizable outside of IMF acquisition, such as in, call it whatever, nutritionals, vitamins, that type?

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

That's not currently part of our priority. Our main focus is on investing in and building nutritional manufacturing capability and market access to China in infants. We're open to acquisitions near and adjacent to us to develop our business. It's not obvious at the moment what that would be, and we'll look at that over time. But we've got a great opportunity with the wonderful brand that's been developed over many years and invested in to expand our product portfolio around that, a penetration in our existing markets, and also to take that to new markets over time. And Vietnam's a great example of that, and hopefully we'll get the opportunity in the US with Infant in the future as well. So we think we've got terrific organic growth opportunities. We're not going to take a billion dollars and invest that in acquisitions for other brands and categories to expand our business significantly because it's got so much of an organic growth opportunity. It's mainly focused on supply chain.

speaker
Lisa Dang

Got it. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Stephen Ridgewell from Craig's IP. Please go ahead.

speaker
Stephen Ridgewell

Good morning. First one for Li Xiao on competition. A2's continued to gain share of the overall market in FY24, but it also looks like it's lost a bit of share of the A2-only category, as we've seen for a number of years now. Just interested in which other brands gain share of the A2-only category over the year, and does the guidance assume these market share trends within the A2-only category continue into FY25, please?

speaker
Li Zhao
China Regional Leader

Yeah, so we see that in the new China-level registration, I mean, almost all the major, all the top 10 competition launched their A2 product. I mean, from, I mean, a basic A2 to A2 organic or A2 plus. And you probably noticed that Yili is probably the most ambitious and determined player. I mean, that almost upgrade most of their SKU to A2 organic and trying to have a bigger presence in the A2 segment. So based on our counter-tracking, I think because of AIRBOARD, a lot of players are launching their new A2 product or upgrade their existing product with A2-based powder. So we see this segment is growing more than 50% in volume and 40% in value. So I think that's both good news and bad news. Bad news is there's much more competition, especially when you have an ambitious player like Yi Li. The good news is with this collective market effort, there's much more education penetration in the A2 segment. And also you see that brand house tracking over A2 pioneer and the leadership brand equity is still ranking at 62 to 63, which is a very high level. And with the previous obvious gap with our competition. So it means that probably we are going to have a last share, but we are going to keep on, I mean, going riding on the A2 good momentum. While we are also strengthened I mean, while the category grows fast, so now our focus shifts more on our A2 brand superiority as a pioneer and a leader. I mean, partially the efforts go to how to grow the pie bigger, educate the consumer. Does that answer the question?

speaker
Stephen Ridgewell

Yeah, that's great. Thanks. And great execution over a number of years in China Label. Maybe just switching to the US. Just interested, David, in your view of the early consumer reception to the launch of US label and formula this year. Is it sufficiently encouraging to warrant a broader market launch over time and the costs obviously being incurred to secure long-term FDA approval? And then second part is, what revenue does U.S. label formula need to achieve for the U.S. business to break even in line with the revised targets, David, for 27, please?

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

I'll start, and Kevin may chime in as well. So on the market reception, look, it's been modest results. to date because we haven't really, probably because they haven't really pushed it that hard during this period of having enforcement discretion approval but not longer term FDA market access. So we've actually invested more and focused more on getting long term access and we shared in the presentation that we completed our growth study and it's hard to tell but I think we're one of the first to complete the growth study and we hope to be submitting our long term application shortly. So hopefully during the course of next year we'll get that long term application and then From a retail partner point of view, that will open up, I guess, on the back of more confidence and certainty in our presence in the market, that should open up more opportunities for us. In the meantime, we've been just experimenting with different propositions and trailing in Amazon. And to a lesser extent, we're also online with Walmart. They're very small businesses at the moment in terms of their distribution and sales. But the reviews have been

speaker
Kevin Bush
Managing Director – USA

Yeah, I think what is encouraging for us is the success of international brands that have come into the marketplace in the last year and a half, two years. That's given us great encouragement. We have, as David said, we've been particularly focused on ensuring we get long-term approval. So that's been where we have most of our efforts have been. And as we said, we do submit our NIFN submission in the next quarter and And we have been trialling various methods and, you know, there's been the premium segment specifically and imported brands performing quite well. So we've been very encouraged with the early signs. There's a long way to go, but there's some international brands that have got, you know, good sizeable portfolios in the last two years. So, you know, we certainly have ambitions in those sort of numbers.

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

In terms of the sales required to break even, Yeah, the profitability of our liquid milk business has improved a lot in recent times. And as Kevin said in his presentation, we expect to get to break even in 26 on that. The real question for us is in relation to infant. We've got great supply out of Sinle and cost structures associated with that. It's a question of how much in marketing do we need to invest to realise that opportunity going forward. That's why I said we need to get a better understanding of the opportunity and investment levels required to deliver that. So liquid milk, break even in the not too distant future. Infant, I hope that we can manage that and without investing a lot in the T&L, but it will depend on our conviction at the time. If we think there's a significant opportunity for us, we're not afraid of leaning into that and investing behind that. But at the moment, we don't have that conviction at the moment, particularly while we're waiting for ED approval, and that may change over time. But otherwise, at the moment, our intention is hopefully to just invest the margin that will derive from the product into marketing investment, maybe a bit more than that, to see how we can gain traction over time and hopefully get some support from some of the major retailers. So it's a bit early to tell, Stephen, in relation to that.

speaker
Stephen Ridgewell

That's great. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Thank you. We do only have five minutes remaining on this call. Your next question comes from Sam Teager from Citi. Please go ahead.

speaker
Sam Teager

Hi David and team. Good morning. Just for the mid-single digit revenue guidance for FY25, can you talk us through what's assumed in there, if anything, for the two new informal products and new markets such as Vietnam just thinking about potential upside scenarios and also on the downside risk, what's the level of confidence that this supply chain disruption is going to be resolved and won't get any worse?

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Sam, hi. We're not really in a position to provide specific guidance on those new products being introduced, but that's to give you some shape around the business and where we're thinking. the growth will come from. So overall in terms of a new single digit revenue guidance, we're thinking that at the moment our total IMF sales would be broadly consistent with that. And probably English label ahead of China label this year, which is different. With China label more constrained by supply than English label, but we'll see how that develops. And for our milk businesses, US and Australia, probably low single digit on average across those, maybe different by region. Other nutritionals should grow well, probably not at the same rates that we did this year because some of that was innovation coming to market plus some supply issues in the previous year. But that should grow, you know, maybe certainly double digits, but not perhaps at 37%. And an MBM is a bit difficult to tell. That could go either way, but you might want to assume that's flat or maybe with more, we're bringing in more milk supplies. That might be up a little bit, but it's a bit hard to tell in relation to MBM at the moment. So hopefully that gives you some shape around that. And the supply constraints, we do expect, keep going, you go. No, you go. Oh, so just on the supply constraints, I mean, we do expect those to be resolved during this half, Sinle's ramping up production, so we don't expect those to get worth it at this point. And if it did, we'd certainly let the market know if it was material.

speaker
Sam Teager

Okay, but that's really helpful, David. Thank you. Just trying to understand, for the new innovation, have you assumed anything in the revenue guidance? Or if that's successful, is that further upside?

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

No, it's in the revenue guidance. Sorry, I thought you were asking me to quantify, but we do have, for example, General Gold starting to ramp up, plus a new product that we're going to bring in the English label portfolio in the second half that's in there as well. So they're all part of that, including stuff that we already have in market and the other nutritional products as well.

speaker
Sam Teager

Perfect, thanks. And then you're great to see all this new development coming out of the company, and hopefully it does help you accelerate revenue growth over the medium to longer term, but Is there any way you can help us understand the magnitude of any margin drag in the short term in FY25 as you launch these new products, given you won't be doing large-size commercial batches until you get comfort that the demand is there for them?

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Yeah, yeah, that's a great point. Particularly on infant, so the, I mean, it sounds like you understand the manufacturing process. Well, the cost of producing smaller base powder runs and blending and canning is quite significantly more at smaller volumes. So at an individual product level for Gentle Gold and the next product that we bring to market, yes, there'll be significantly lower margins until they get to scale. And those, when the product starts to get in the order of one to two million tins, that's when you get back to closer to normal manufacturing economics, but certainly less than a million tins, it's a drain. But in terms of overall impact, it's not likely to be that material, just simply because of the relative size of those products relative to the total size of their portfolio.

speaker
Sam Teager

Got it. Thank you, David.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Thank you. Your final question comes from Marcus Curley from UBS. Please go ahead.

speaker
Marcus Curley

Good afternoon. David, I just wondered if you could quantify you know, the market headwinds you're expecting to face in 25? Specifically, I suppose, how it relates to China label and maybe, you know, your aspirations to grow your store count?

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Store count. So, I mean, overall in the market, you know, I think, Marcus, the total market's probably likely, it's hard to be specific, it's probably still likely to decline mid-single digits in value. In terms of China label, China label has been underperforming as a category versus English label, so down 12.5%. And in a way, we, and particularly in the MBS channel in Q&A cities as well, where we obviously over index too. So that is a headwind to us. Against that, we have a great opportunity in BCD cities to withstand our distribution, which we have been doing. And if you, I actually didn't include it in the chart here, but, you know, we've grown, I think it's in our, in our, Results, commentary and outlook, you'll see that we grew our store count to 29,000. So that's up about 3,000 from the half, which is primarily related to expansion distribution in BCD cities. So we have a great opportunity to increase our distribution in BCD cities going forward and we We have a much lower share there at 3%. That's a big opportunity for us. But there's definitely market headwinds in terms of total growth and China label, and we over-index towards where that is impacting. But we're at a great opportunity in BCD cities and also in online where we under-index as well. And the online channel, like many categories, is growing ahead of offline at the moment.

speaker
Marcus Curley

And then just... Quickly, within English Label, are you anticipating any share losses in that guidance number of 5%? It feels like English Label is already in growth, English Label next year, yet you have a 5% or slightly above 5% guidance. I did note that to lower CBEX share, I just wondered if there's something happening in your share position in English Label that's worth calling out?

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

no we'd um i mean we'd hope to um maintain our share in english label and i think over time we've got opportunity to increase our share um so hopefully the the market for english label will continue to grow and we will maintain or hopefully i mean we you would expect us to plan to improve that over time as well um so we are i mean we're growing um so in cbec um whilst When you look at SmartPath data, it's up a little bit, but that's the SmartPath data that we report, which is basically the four major platforms plus flagship stores. But we're progressively working on our more direct engagement with C2C and pop stores, which is improving. And Doyin, which is a great opportunity for us, which is outside our reported numbers there. Our O2O partnership with UO has been really positive as well. There's lots of opportunities for us to continue to grow in English label and a measured view on that is included within our guidance. Okay, thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Bordelucci for closing remarks.

speaker
David Ward-Lucy
Managing Director & CEO

Well, that's it for us. Thank you very much for joining the call today. I look forward to continuing our discussions with our analysts and investors over the next couple of weeks. Thank you very much.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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