11/12/2025

speaker
Marco
Capital Market Day Moderator

Good morning. Thank you, everyone, for attending our Capital Market Day. We have a couple of busy hours in front of us. First, our CFO, Luca Moroni, will comment on nine months' results. Then, our CEO, Renato Mazzoncini, will drive you through the update of our capital and the strategic plan at 2035. So, without spending any more time, we are ready to start, and I leave the floor to Luca.

speaker
Luca Moroni
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you very much, Marco. I will go through the presentation of our nine-month results. Starting from the highlights, as usual. Perfect. We show a good resilience in economic and financial results despite the exceptional hydroelectric production of the previous year. The contribution of margin deriving from the growing performance of electricity network, the higher premium on the capacity market and the increase in the urban waste treatment prices absorbed the negative effect arising from lower hydroelectric production returning to historical average levels and the exit from safeguard market. Sound economic and financial performance confirmed. Reported EBITDA recorded a limited decrease, reaching 1,729 million euro. Net of impact deriving from hydroelectric production, which is one of the few exceptional effects recorded in 2024, EBITDA grew by 3%. Ordering net income, excluding a special item recorded on both 24 and 25, showed a decrease of 16%, compared nine months 24, standing at €559 million. Adjusting 24 results for the effect of last year's hydroelectric production, ordering net income decreased by 3%. We confirm the solidity of our financial ratios. Our net financial position landed at 5.3 billion, with a net financial position to EBITDA ratio equal to 2.4 times, with a decrease compared last year to 2.5. Resilient EBITDA despite normalization in hydrovolumes. Despite anomalization in adult volumes, CBTD remained resilient. Generation and trading, ordinary BDDA, amounted to 623 million, with a decrease of 20%, 160 million or less, compared to the first nine months, 24%. The change is mainly attributable to the normalization of our hydro production, minus 26%, minus one terawatt hour, resulting in a margin reduction of around 130 million. The lower opportunity from energy commodity hedging, the higher contribution of thermoelectric production, and the increase in the premium awarded on the capacity market. Supply ordinary BTDA amounted at 328 million with a decrease of 9% minus 34 million euro compared to the 9 months 24. We confirm the level of the marginality recorded in the same period of the last year, net of the effect from the safeguard market, which accounts 33 million euro. So the outcome is the positive effect of the commercial development of free market electricity segment, 109,000 customers more compared last year, plus 7%. lower retention costs, and the increase in operating costs arising from sales channel mix. Circular economy ordinary PDDA amounted to $423 million, with a growth of $20 million, plus five, compared to the first nine months, 24%. Here also the increase is mainly attributable to the positive contribution of waste to energy treatment prices, being partially offset by lower margin from the new contract with the Campania region for the management of Acera plant. The positive contribution of district heating, thanks to higher volume sold, plus 96 gigawatt, thermic gigawatt per hour, plus 5%, and higher volumes from sales of white certificates. The decrease in the collection segment, mainly following the new contract signed with Milan after the tender, slightly affected the marginality. Regulated network ordinary BTDA amounted to 359 million euro with a decrease of 29 year-on-year. Decrease in the margin is mainly attributable to the performance of the new perimeter in the electricity network, plus 68 million, as well as the increase in low revenues of a historical perimeter, plus 23 million euro, and a lower marginality deriving from the disposal of gas distribution assets. Let's see our income statement, starting from EBTDA of €1,729 million. We recorded €704 million depreciation, amortization and write-off, up to, compared last year, €45 million, €23 million for the delta perimeter of the new electricity company, Dueretti. and the new CapEx plan carried out during the period. Net provision of 69 million. Net financial expense is of 128 due to the new debt volume effect. I just recall the new issuance we had in January of the EU green bond in the new format and the bridge loan for the acquisition of the new asset from Enel Distribuzione. Taxes of €244 million with a reduction of €42 million compared to the first nine months, 24, with a tax rate of 29% in line with the previous year. Minor interest of €28 million for a net income of €559 million. including 22 million of special item mainly due to the plus value coming from the asset deal of the gas network the group net income is 581 million euro we continue to invest to growth and to support ecological transition. CAPEX, in the first nine months, amounted to €1,037 million, up 15% compared to nine months of the previous year, supporting the ecological transition. Development CAPEX amounted to €6,018 million, mainly focused on upgrading The efficiency of the grid, the increasing of flexibility of generation plants, and the development of photovoltaic and wind power plants. 70% of the CAPEX are eligible for taxonomy, and 51% are aligned. Net free cash flow. During the period, the change in our net financial position was positive and amounted to 518 million euro. Operating cash flow fully financed, capex plan and dividend payments, which is very good news. As of September 30, the company reported a net financial position of 5,317 million euro. consistent with the first alpha, reflecting an improvement of net financial position to EBITDA ratio to 2.4 times, compared to 2.5 as of the end of December 24. So in light of the solid result we have just commented, our guidance for EBITDA is confirmed in the upper end of the range, €2,170,200,000. And the group net profit, net of non-recurring items between the range of €680,700,000. Thank you very much.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

OK, thank you, Luca. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for being here or connected at our Capital Market Day. Since Luca's presentation of the last quarter, you have seen the name of the plan presented last year at Lifeyards, which told the story of a company that is committed to building the future every day by investing in infrastructure, renewable energy, as Margherita. We need more power today, more efficiency and more sustainability. And data is the heart of this revolution. And data centers are spreading across our territory and are growing very quickly, you know. And today, we are ready to seize our momentum to drive the digital and ecological transition with competencies and responsibility. Just a moment, guys, because I started without moving the slide. and uh no sorry i come back no company is future proof but some company are future ready and a2a is one such company ready to face future and ready to power Today we will illustrate how E2A is writing one of the most compelling success stories in Europe's energy landscape. A story built on financial discipline, industrial excellences and strategical foresight. With a long-term vision that focuses on the two-fold opportunities of energy transition and circular economy, further accelerated by artificial intelligence development. I'll begin by giving you a brief overview. So we start with a brief overview of the energy landscape that I think can be very interesting for you. And we'll then run through the key highlights of our strategy. And then I'll hand over to Luca, who will illustrate you our key financials and how long-term financial stability underpins our growth and ensure... the platform for our acceleration into the future. So, start with the landscape. Electrification is driven by a rapid growth of data center. which we will talk about longer during the presentation, but not only, because also immobility and heat pumps are constantly decreasing in cost and entering the market, creating totally additional electrical demand. In this graph, you can see the growth of electrical demand in the next year. and in this graph clearly shows that the demand for electricity is growing while at the same time the demand for fossil energy is decreasing overall the total final consumption is decreasing because the efficiency of electrical equipment as well you know is much higher than fossil fuel equivalents, and so there is a total reduction. And therefore, electrification is also the only route to decarbonization. Decarbonization, where also more niche but fundamental technologies in complex urban contexts, such as waste-to-energy or district heating, also helps. And so, let's have a closer look of data center trend in Italy. In this map, you can see the total capacity of 55 gigawatts of connection already requested to Terna. The geographical distribution not only rewards Lombardy, which is not a surprise, but also two regions in the south, in particular Puglia and Sicily, which are located on some of the most important underwater data networks in the world. and will therefore be able to seize opportunities. So let's think of our plants in the north, but also of sites such as San Filippo del Mela in Sicily or in Puglia. Our estimated, which we presented, you remember, in September in Cernobbio with Thea, is one of the most conservative on the market in this moment. The base scenario, 2.3 gigawatts, full potential, 4.6. And the potential of heat recovery for district heating is interesting because it can double the thermal energy available. That is a particularly interesting opportunity in Milano, which sees 50% of Italian data centers on its territory and the district eating network that currently covers only less 20% of buildings. So from one side, great opportunity to grow district eating, from the other, it's recovery from data center. Investment needs in electricity distribution grid in Italy are over 10 billion euros per year, only over the horizon of our industrial plan, 35. Mainly driven by new demand, but also by the need to connect new renewable generation and renewable grid. And it's also interesting to see that WEPNIEC, that is our national integrated plan energy and climate, updated by the Meloni government in 24, has pushed the renewable energy target to a level never seen before, 63% by 2030. which, in my opinion, is the obvious reaction, after the wars, of a country that is the third in Europe for renewable potential, after Norway and France, but Italy has neither Norway's fossil fuel nor France's nuclear power. And with renewables, also storage is growing. It's interesting, the result of the first Max tender, the result is due to very low battery prices. the result of competition between Chinese players, and consequently a very low price of time shift. We have calculated about 30-35 euros for megawatt hours of the cost of time shift, which make renewable even more competitive during the day. Finally, I would like to point out that the capacity market programs launched by Terna in recent years to avoid the risk of blackouts, such as was seen in Spain, are leading to the construction of a powerful fleet of new high-efficiency gas-fired CCD plants. The efficiency is 62-63% compared with 40-50% of the efficiency for the older plants. Less CO2, lower energy price, which replaces Italian generation fleet with a power of 5 gigawatt, but more or less is equal to all the Spanish nuclear power. And what is key is that the load factor of GGTs now is around 20%. and also in the horizon of the plan without data center. That means that it is therefore more than able to cope with the increase in demand from data center. It is enough to look at the following graph to understand how our strategic decisions in recent years have permitted A2A to pave the way toward electrification in Italy. We invested 10 billion euros over the last 10 years, 60% of which focused on electrification. And our investment in electrification include the swap between part of H2A gas network with Enas power grid in province of Milano e Brescia. The result is the swap in the value of the RAB in our asset gas and power grid. Focused investment in renewable with a good mix of wind and solar to build increasingly competitive PPAs for our B2B customer. And an electricity customer base that has grown by 61% between 2020 and today. 61% the customer base electrical. HEA has currently three unique features. The first, the presence in both energy transition and circular economy space. The second, being established in Lombardy, which is the center of the development area. And the third, being ready thanks to the previous investment choices. The first of them, which really distinguishes H2A in the Italian scenario, is that it's the sole player not only vertically integrated in energy transition networks, generation and customer base, but also vertically integrated in circular economy, with strong crossover elements such as waste-to-energy and district heating. And it is an issue that we have been supporting for some time, but today a phenomenon has arrived that is focusing everyone's attention, that is the data center. A key tool of competition at the neighbor of the digital revolution, which, however, requires a systemic approach to sustainability issues. So connection to the electricity grid, supply of baseload energy but with low CO2 impact, efficient cooling system and heat recovery, and efficient water management. And Lombardy, once again, is the heart of action. We are ready. We are ready. E2A is clearly a single development partner capable of addressing all these issues in an integrated and efficient way. This is our momentum, driven by growth, new businesses and new geographies, increasing our productivity. And these are our numbers. which Luca will tell you about in more detail later. We are following the path traced in January 21, you remember, when we presented the first 10 years plan. At that time, the target seemed very challenging. But today we are surpassing most of them, despite the delays generated by COVID and worse. And today is the time of our momentum. 23 billion of investment still growing in comparison with the life-yards plan, of which 16 billion in the energy transition. And what is important, however, is this graph in which you can see the status of our investment. Of the 23 billion euros of CAPEX that will bring E2A to 3.6 billion euros of EBITDA, 35% are already completed or under construction. 35 percent already approved and ready to start this is what is needed in europe as mr draghi also reminds us in his famous report to build infrastructure that make italy and europe competitive and sustainable over time Today, the 12th of November, we have over 250 large-scale construction sites in all our sector in this moment. And I ask if it's possible to send a video, a very short video about it.

speaker
Video Narrator
Video Narrator

Over the past years, we haven't waited for the future. We've built it. Yard by yard, year by year, we've expanded renewable generation, strengthened strategic infrastructure, created ever smarter grids, and combined innovation and circularity Today, we're entering the era of artificial intelligence. Data centers, the engines of this revolution, stand on our territories. And the demand for energy is growing exponentially. At A2A, we're ready. Ready to deliver efficient, sustainable power. Ready to lead the digital and ecological transition. This is our momentum. The force that drives us into the future. A2A Momentum. Ready to power.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

Okay, and so let's start with the highlights of the strategy. Investments in the electricity grid are still growing, reaching 4.9 billion euros, which will bring the electricity rub to 4 billion by 2035. And the acceleration, as we will see, derives mainly from the efficient integration of former energy networks. I would like to underline two aspects. The first is the EBITDA per pod. In strong growth, thanks to both growing investment, of course, and the economy of scale generating by the doubling of the number of pods managed by A2A. Today we arrive to 2 million of pods managed. the second aspect is the deployment of electricity network projected to triple our current rate in kilometers of electricity grid lead reinforcing our commitment to electrification and You can imagine I am really happy that the dual-rated deal was finally understood properly. The good news for all is that compared to the dual-rated acquisition plan, in the first year, because you remember we started to manage January 25 this network, We have developed 23% more CapEx than expected. And you know that the value of this network is the quantity of CapEx that you are able to invest on. Which was not all obvious in a network that we didn't know. And with an absolute value more than double the investment made at the same pre-acquisition network in 24. And the BDA produced is 7% more than the estimated we had in the plan, in the acquisition plan. So we are very satisfied both from a strategic point of view with the performance that we are achieving on the new network. This strategic value is clearly represented by the 280 MW of connection requested for data centers received only from January to date alone. main connection for data centers up to 10 megawatt so if the data center arrives to 10 megawatt is the main connection backup connection for larger ones because even the larger data centers start with a 10 megawatt medium voltage connection because 2R80 is faster than Terna in delivery and guarantees a faster time to market for developers. So the topic for them is this one. Today, everybody is talking about data centers, but let's not neglect immobility, as car costs have fallen in the last years. This is interesting. 24% less city cars, 12% less small cars. And you know, in the same period, the cost of endothermic vehicles So, in line with the normal market dynamics, it will react accordingly, reaching 20% of share of electrical vehicles by 2035. So we estimated that at national level, electricity consumption for electric transportation will reach 40 terawatt-hours. But there is no doubt that Lombardy and Milano will be frontrunners also in e-mobility. So we continue to invest selectively in charging infrastructure, specializing in the two segments that we believe will be successful, that are only the slow charging city blocks, so low capex for urban widespread mobility, or high power charging apps in high traffic extra urban areas. Regarding our investment in renewable energy, we confirm our commitment of reaching 3.7 GW with a balanced development between wind and solar. But it's interesting that to estimate of increase in production per MW installed, due to the effect of repowering and the increased productivity of new plants. We'll grow by 54% in wind and 28% in solar. And our pipeline has also grown, now totalling over 2 GW of wind and solar capacity. Of particular importance is the issue of the de-risking of the generation portfolio. You know that is an issue for you. Super important. The first level of de-risking remains the diversification process. of generation sources, both in terms of technology and geography. Compared to the commonly used description, we have added an important distinction, so a new distinction, between traditional CGETs and high efficiency CGETs. you know, is the blue and color. The latter, obviously, will have more market space. You remember, 62, 63% of efficiency and constitute one of the strategic elements of the risking strategy. furtherly incentivize renewable a capacity market but also the growing market for ppas that is growing that we estimated will cover 65 percent of our renewable production and 70 percent of our energy mix will be renewable lastly And importantly, the natural edging between generation and customer base remains crucial. As can be seen from this graph, A2A remains long on sales, with generation well covered by final customer consumption along the whole plan. Regarding customer, so we talk a little bit about customer, the retail sector has been increased competition. These are the data according to ARERA data, the churn rates have risen by 1.8 times in recent years. What is happening in 25, that is the curve is changing, but today this is the data from ARERA. The electricity customer base will continue to grow compared to the gas. So you have seen our mix between customer gas and customer electricity customer is changing completely. And the acquisition strategy aims to carefully select geographies and sales channels focusing on the acquisition of their high value customers. The target of 5 million customers remains confirmed as per previous plan and also this year, despite the loss of customers under safeguard. Margins remain very healthy. In the B2B segment, it is interesting, the dynamics are the opposite. So the churn is declining. with a rate that is now even lower than retail. Probably is the first time in the history of our country. And of course it's interesting because the B2B is a segment in which 2A is very active with over 10% of market share. Presently, because of the strategy of vertical integration with generation, that HALO asked to propose corporate PPAs. Corporate PPAs remain key and B2B customers are key to close agreements in PPAs. Moving in the circular economy, let's start with the waste cycle. Italy is not a bad place on the European scene with respect to the 2035 goals. You remember no more than 10% in landfill, but there is still a lot to do. Frankly speaking, in the Lombardy region, where the incumbent operator in urban waste is at 2A, the use of landfill is close to zero. The plan provides for growth in both the volume of waste traded and thermal and electrical energy recovered. It is worth mentioning that in 24, the third waste-to-energy line in Parona started up with a treatment capacity of more or less 250,000 tons. And another plant with another 250,000 tons is already under construction in Cortolone, you have seen in the video. And today H2A is the sole company in Italy that is building a waste-to-energy plant, in a situation in which the gap that we have to fill with the European target remains 4 million tons. One of the new elements of this plan is the integration of waste management, water cycle, district heating and data center businesses into the new Circular Economy Business Unit. So we have built a new business unit named Circular Economy with altogether this business. The Circular Economy Business Unit with 6.5 billion of CAPEX plan will reach 1.3 billion of the BDA. One of the levers will be an higher integration in the B2B supply chain. The circular economy business unit will be strongly impacted by the data center development. For example, the issue of water management becomes crucial with data centers. so let's take a closer look on how a2a plans to approach the data center business let's start with the most easily predictable activity a2a as an energy partner is normal of a data center in operation or under construction We have estimated that growth in electricity demand from data center could reach 42 terawatt hours at the full potential of the scenario presented in Chernobyl. Interesting that our scenario is significantly more conservative than the one published a few days ago by Ternesdam. The Ternes Dam scenario estimated an electricity demand of almost 600 terawatt hours, 508, by 2050, with a significant contribution from data center. And also Mr. Picchetto every time says that we'll reach 600 terawatt hours of energy consumption. Again, based on our most conservative scenario, we have estimated that the demand for electricity connection to the medium voltage grid in province of Milano will reach 1,400 megawatts. And likewise, according to our assumption, we have estimated the energy that could be recovered from data centers for district heating with a full potential of three thermal terrava towers capable of heating about 300,000 apartments in Milano. The impact in terms of CAPEX and the BDA of H-way energy partner activity is included within the individual businesses, so in generation, market, networks, district heating, with potential upside to be captured. but if there is a party we don't want to go just to be the dj and therefore since we have a very attractive very proposition we have allocated 1.6 billion euro for capex to develop a part of a great national data center plan So let's take a closer look to our value proposition. One of the most important needs for data centers is evidently related to low-cost, high-resilience, baseload energy supply. The best configuration that guarantees these two elements at the same time is the direct connection of the generation plants to the data center, which requires simply that the data center to be located in close proximity to the generation plants. And it is interesting to see on the map how many generation plants H2A has in Lombardy and how concentrated they are around Milano. The base load production, base load production, guaranteed by both our waste-to-energy plant and thermoelectrical plants, combined with the grow-mix or renewal, is attracting a lot of interest from operators in terms of final energy supply cost and time to market. is difficult in this moment to say what is better cost of energy or time to market because it's a moment really very particular the bda we expected in 2035 supplementary this is supplementary to the activities of energy partners is 0.4 billion euros by 2035. And the first projects have already been carefully identified and the first analyses are underway. I can't say the name today, but you can easily understand from the graph. It is very interesting to see in the graph what impact a partner like HUA can have on the economics of the data center development. As you can see, 65% of the OPEX is related to energy consumption. The other is personal and maintenance. And this 65% once again is 65% for server room, 25% for cooling system and 10% for other components. Thanks to a competitive advantage, we can work on the 65% of energy-related consumption and reduce the overall cost down to less than 50%. And believe me, this is super conservative. By direct connection between data center and generation plants, in Italy is named SSPC so is a direct connection a cable that goes from generation to final user to reduce the network charges because in this case you have not to pay TSO and DSO and the relative tax heat recovery the second is heat recovery for district heating and deficient cooling supply I keep energy and I reduce the cost for data center. Furthermore, PPAs and energy management could also reduce volatility risk of a business. Consider that data center is the perfect customer for PPAs because it's super productive, the consumption base load of energy for all the life of a data center. I would like to close this section by talking about our geographical footprint, our backyard. I think it is important to recall that when we presented the first 10-year plan in January 21, some of you surely will remember, we had planned to develop A2A in Europe as well. with some of the company's most core businesses, in particular waste-to-energy and renewable energy. In 2022, following the Russia-Ukraine award, we updated the business plan by bringing all CapEx back to Italy to contribute more quickly to our country's energy autonomy. But today we believe that it is necessary to return to a more European footprint, to a geographical diversification that lets us identify opportunities with higher returns and faster execution. So the tender, let's say, between countries is to be more attractive for investment. Therefore, a part of a CAPEX envisaged in the plan and not yet definitively allocated, there is a part of a CAPEX that is not definitively allocated, that means not additional, to be clear, can be used as an opportunity of international expansion, which will take place gradually and typically with the first inorganic moves. The focus remains on the core businesses, particularly in the waste value chain, starting from waste to energy with potential integration with collection. You know, there is a natural edge in between connection and treatment that we have to maintain. And in the area of power value chain by integrating renewable generation, energy management and customer base. Our development strategy will lay on country commitment, identifying potential targets for an initial external growth as an anchoring platform model for further development. The work is already underway and we have identified priorities in different countries according to the targets. You can see the picture in the graph for example the iberian peninsula and uk are most interesting for waste to energy while germany and poland are of interest in the power supply chain okay i close this part and now i leave a floor to luca so i can drink some water please look

speaker
Luca Moroni
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you. Thank you, Renato. I will now walk you through the plan financials. As an infrastructure company, we are presenting 23 billion investments, a further increase on what we presented last year. This will generate profitable growth over the plan horizon and will enable the company to capture new opportunities arising from the evolving needs in the utility sector. CAPEC deployment is going to fuel structural industrial BTDA, substituting the temporary effect from better hydro condition and good edging opportunity we seized during the last period. The 23 billion of investment are driven by our two well-known pillar, energy transition and circular economy. But what it is new for you is the 1.6 billion direct investment in data center, the data center platform, which I will elaborate later on. The expectation regarding electrification and the potential for fast and strong demand dynamics, driven also by data center, lead us to be more selective in our project pipeline. we have decided to increase investment in electricity grid by almost 800 million and to refocus our treatment investment primarily on energy recovery. This plan will result in a robust EBTDA CAGRA of plus 5% from 2025 to 2035, and plus 6% of CAGR if we switch our base to 2028, when the development of data center will start playing its role. The data center platform is our initial structural approach to embed this opportunity in our targets. driving a growing contribution up to €300-400 million EBITDA in 2035. Finally, the EBITDA breakdown between merchant and low volatility activities highlights the adequate balance of risk and stability, which underscores The breakdown between merchant and low volatility activities highlights the adequate balance of risk and stability, which underscores The ABTDA breakdown between merchant and low volatility activities highlights the adequate balance of risk and stability, which underscore

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

for our confidence

speaker
Luca Moroni
Chief Financial Officer

25 to 2035 with a robust 8% of growth in the period of 28 to 35. The growth doesn't include the full potential coming from data center. Namely, increasing electricity supply, medium voltage connection, district heating network expansion. Our commitment at least 4% year-over-year dividend growth is confirmed. Reinforcing the company focus on rewarding shareholders while maintaining financial discipline. We believe that the fruit of our financial management will continue to make A2A a very attractive proposition for our shareholders, with a forecast return on investment of plus 9%, a 12% of return of equity, and a payout ratio between 45% and 55%. Our guidance is Expected EBITDA between €2.21 billion to €2.25 billion and ordinary net income ranging from €630 to €660 million. These figures reflect the company confidence in achieving a steady operational performance and short-term profitability, while laying the foundation for a stronger future growth through a remarkable CapEx plan. Thank you. I will now leave the floor again to Renato.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Luca. a few minutes for closing remarks and then we'll start with questions. Also because it has been a long but I hope interesting presentation. The opportunities are many. And as in the presentation of a life years plan, let me leave you with this thought. H2A growth today no longer has the bottleneck of industrial machine. On the contrary, it is full of human capital that wants to do, wants to grow and to create long lasting value. If any, The bottleneck is our solid and rigorous approach to financial policies, which could also open up to partnership to seize further opportunities in the future. In this slide you can see another 300 million of potential ABDA that can be generated by other projects that we already have in the pipeline. Talking about new CGT's, battery, reinforcement of electricity grid, district heating, growth and so on. We have many things in the toolbox, but not everything. And this is why we have decided to set up the new LifeVenture company. to increase our commitment to innovation, venture capital, and collaboration with startups, universities, and research centers. And today, 8Way is the largest Italian corporate venture capital in climate tech. And we have just launched 8Way. The Life2 fund has already raised $150 million out of a $200 million final target. So we are very happy. There are many activities already underway with startups and many investments made in the past. Energy Dome, I think that is a super good example. And all are proving to be a great vision and foresight. A2A has already implemented several use cases with this startup, including, for example, digital twin for predictive maintenance on electricity network, artificial intelligence powered plastic sorting. Really, believe me, digital twins on the networks, a lot of application. In this moment, we have more than 100 projects with artificial intelligence ongoing in the company. And finally, our commitment to a competitive but sustainable transition. Our net zero commitment to 2050. And the decarbonisation curve that you know to 2030 remains solid. It remains solid because our decarbonisation path will cope sustainability targets with improvement in our performance along our business lines. only some example in water cycle, district heating, supply, and so on. In this last slide, we summarize the main data, which need, I think, no further comment before we open the floor to your question. Let me recap some of today's key points. To be in the right place at the right time is always a good thing, but it's not enough unless you are also future fit and ready to see the short and long-term opportunities. Today, A2A is ready. Ready to power and in particular ready to grasp the opportunities arising from the growth of data centers in Italy and in Europe. our integrated industrial backbone powered by 23 billion euros in strategical investment expanding regulated asset and growing footprint in electrification renewable and circular economy gives us the scale and solidity to thrive through change our clear vision aligned with Europe's energy transition, has enabled us to anticipate structural changes and to cover them into opportunities. And our economic stability has provided the platform for acceleration. And this is what makes us the company that is now driving renewed confidence and recognition in the market. Thank you very much, and the floor is open for your questions.

speaker
Marco
Capital Market Day Moderator

Thank you, Renato. Thank you, Luca. Now, first of all, we will open the question to the floor. Then we will also move to the connection lines. So let's start with the floor. First one, Avia Suarez from Mediobanca.

speaker
Avia Suarez
Analyst, Mediobanca

Thank you, Marco, and good morning all. So two questions that are the first group related to the short-term and then to the medium-term. Asking for the short-term assumption that the company has changed in 2026, 2027, and 2028, Can you share with us the underlying assumptions for 2026, the changes that you have implemented? Because I have noticed that the previous net income target was €700 million. If I'm not mistaken, now the company is targeting €650 million. 650 million euros of net income in 2026 so the question is what is which are the mobile the moving pieces for that and then i have also noticed that the target for 2027 has been is the same one for 2028 so in that period that goes from 2026 to 2028 what the companies see through different lenses that makes that the profitability of the company of the net income is going to be lower and then On the medium term, it is fair to say that the company has for the first time included into its business plan the data center opportunity from 2028 to 2035. And if that is the case, why the 400 million euros of increase that you are forecasting is not fair? fully translated into your previous target. Because previous target has been increased by 300 million euros, data center opportunities quantified at 400 million euros, which is the moving piece in the EBITDA target. And a related question is philosophical on the data center opportunity. How... A2A see itself? Is it going to be a builder of data center or is it going to be a company serving data center? And the last question to leave space to other colleagues is how A2A see this business? Because I have noticed that the business hasn't been included into the generation business. It has been included into the district circular economy unit. This means that the companies see a different pricing, different dynamics, a different opportunity for this business that is going to be decorrelated from the generation activity. So the thing that I'm trying to capture is that the pricing of this electricity directly sold to data center are going to follow a completely different logic. Thank you.

speaker
Marco
Capital Market Day Moderator

No, one for one. One, one for one.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

Okay, I try to answer to the medium term and then I leave Luca for 26, 27. Starting exactly from your last question, Xavier. Yes, I think that the difference is... The complete difference between this plan and the previous plan is the fact that we decided to invest directly in the development of data center. To be an energy partner, also an energy partner able to bring a lot of opportunities from PPAs, grid, and districting, It's normal for a company like us. We are happy to be fully integrated and so to give a lot of opportunities to our customer. What is not obvious is to invest directly 1.6 billion to develop, to build the data center. Because, you know, the business of data center... It's different compared to the size of data center. There are the super big data center, 200 megawatts or more, probably will be built directly by the over the top, Amazon, Google, and so on. But the typical size that we expected to see in Italy in the next year is between, let's say, 5 and 100, probably. So in a co-location business model. So the topic of the issue is to have a house for data center that is super efficient. to be able to host the rank of the customer that will arrive. And so our business model decided to put 1.6 billion on the table exactly to be able to be the owner of the data center. And this is the reason for why there are 400 million of BDA on top on our previous guideline because our 400 million euros completely linked to the capex to 1.6 billion of capex we imagine to have in 2030 already more than 100 million of a bda and the curve that grow till 400 with this CAPEX. And so, I think that is very interesting to understand that the opportunities is linked to the graph in which you have seen how many generation plants we have in Lombardy. So the opportunities for data centers to be built near, close to our generation plant is not easy, but is absolutely not impossible. because there are really a lot of opportunities and the direct connection is the killer application because the real killer application is to be able to reduce the charges for distribution and transmission and we have a lot of waste to energy plant in lombardy not only when known like Brescia, Milano, but also in Como, Cremona. We have a lot of other plants in Bergamo and a lot of thermoplant. The big thermoplant can be able to attract super big data centers. Because if you have a thermal plant with 700, 800 megawatt of power, you can source surely also data center with 200 or more. A waste-to-energy plant can be the super partner for a data center of medium size, 20, 30 megawatts, for example. But big, because in this moment, I remember that in Lombardy, the biggest data center is the data center of a team in Rozzano, near Milano, 30 megawatts. This is the situation in this moment in Italy. So, talking about short-term,

speaker
Luca Moroni
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, let me start from EBITDA. Last year, when we presented the plan here, we clearly stated that we came from a result that was blown by some exceptional situation, like as the hydrovolumes and the prices affect. We have calculated those effects into 300 million euro. So you need to consider 2024 with this normalization. Having said that, 2025 has a queue of price effects because the normalization of prices It's going to be to lead us at the level between 100 and 110, which is the normalization of the scenario we ever considered. If you make the calculation, we have still 80, 90 million euro in 26 as a queue of the scenario effect. But we did quite a good job in recovery and being at the same level in terms of BTDA as in the previous plan. Going forward, we start to have the impact of the data center opportunities, again, which we have considered I will say it is very usual for A2A in a very prudent approach. You have seen it. The chance could be really huge. We keep the foot in the ground, step by step, considering only few opportunities. on which leverage our growth in the mid-term. In terms of APTDA, we have a couple of things which lower a little bit the level compared to the previous one. which is the calculation of the allocation of the prices for the acquisition of the network from Enel. As you know, it is an accounting procedure we need to follow for the purchase price allocation. This will account 20 million euro in term of depreciation and amortization starting from the end of this year and 26 onwards. And we have changed a little bit the mix of our capex. You have seen we have increased the capex plan in electrical distribution with almost 800 million euro of higher capex. And this leave us from the calculation with higher depreciation compared last year. So these are the three aspects, the queue of the energy scenario and the depreciation and amortization.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

Talking about a bigger construction site, what will do the differences in the next year is Monfalcone. Monfalcone, the first parallels of the first connection with the grid will arrive in October 26. and we estimated to have the operational activities of the BDA that is 10 million every month since January 27. The second is in more or less in the middle of 28, the new Westway energy plant in Corte Olona. Of course, there are a lot of other CAPEX investment, but these two elements all together are about 200 million euros. This is the reason for why from 2028 you see the full potential of these two plants and the BDA that come back to grow quickly. I think that what is key to understand, but I'm sure that is clear for you, is that the scenario effect was crucial in the last year, and we were able to offset most of the scenario effect due to the CAPEX that we did in the last year.

speaker
Marco
Capital Market Day Moderator

Okay, let's start. Emanuele Giorni from Kepler.

speaker
Emanuele Giorni
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Emanuele Giorni, Kepler Chevrolet. Thank you for the presentation. The first question is on the revenue model on data centers. You mentioned before this more than 100 million euro of BDA contribution. in 2030 and 400 million euro in 2035. So what could be the revenue model and the breakdown between generation, district heating, networks, and also other fee or services related to the direct connection to your plants? This is the first question. The second is on the RAB. The second question is on renewables. Basically, you cut by one billion the CAPEX plan compared with the previous one. 3.7 from 4.7 billion for an additional capacity of one gigawatt additional capacity in in 2030 so i think this could be one of the reason also the some postponement or or said before the delayed of the cab the abda from 27 to 28 and what is the visibility on on these uh due to the fact that record in italy not Up to A2A, but up to the system overall is not excellent. In Italy, every year we experience delays, we suffer delays in the permitting process, etc. And the third question is on RAB. Sorry, for the generation business, the CAPEX, related to the CAPEX, the additional question was also is if you have considered or to what extent you have considered or not, probably not, based on your slides, the possible extension or renewal of the hydroelectric concession. So what is the issue or driver could be further upside probably on the plan? And back to the RAB, the RAB was increased, if I'm correct, from 3.4 billion to 4 billion in 2035. So in this case, to what extent the electricity distribution concession, renewal extension, I don't know, from 10 up to 20 years, et cetera, has been already considered or not, would be an additional incremental CAPEX in development. Thank you.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

Okay, Emanuele. Starting from generation, because it's easier, consider that in this presentation we decided not to recall all what we have in the plan. So the hydro is not in the presentation, but is in the plan. That means that the 4.7 billion of capex presented in LifeYard's plan included one billion for hydro. So the total capex for solar and wind remain the same, 3.7. One billion is inside the plan exactly for the extension of the concession. And we are absolutely confident on the extension of the concession. And this is the reason for why we decided not to focus during the presentation on this topic that exactly in these weeks is particularly delicate. So we want to close. The numbers are inside the plan and we imagine to be able to go absolutely in continuity. The revenue model, as we said, the revenue model included our natural activities in supply, distribution, distributing inside our businesses. Probably there are some upside. because in this moment we imagine that due to the increasing electrical demand, the price of energy will remain more or less at the actual level. But probably being in Lombardy and due, for example, to the opportunity to develop district heating or activity in water management that can be very interesting with data center, our historical activity can grow. But the 400 million are location of data center so the business model these 400 million are completely out of our business classical business line so capex and location of space in data center on the grid look a rubber do you want to

speaker
Luca Moroni
Chief Financial Officer

I didn't get the question on the rub, if you can repeat it for a while.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

It was about the extension to the grid distribution.

speaker
Luca Moroni
Chief Financial Officer

Ah, okay. Yeah, we are waiting for the decree.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

We are waiting for ARERA, the new ARERA. this depend on yeah Emanuele no no the CAPEX are absolutely included because in this moment our investment in the grid is more or less triple than the average national level so surely A2A is not to put other on the table but to know when we start the problem is that there is an activity from arera and you know in this moment we are waiting for the new board of arera when we'll arrive i think that quickly the the situation will be closed 20 years is what we expected like extension 30 50.

speaker
Luca Moroni
Chief Financial Officer

And we haven't included any install payments upfront for the new order concession. Also take into consideration that there is a discussion in place if this amount of money should be paid or not, considering the bill of the customer. But anyway, doesn't change the picture, you know?

speaker
Marco
Capital Market Day Moderator

Roberto Letizia from Equitain.

speaker
Roberto Letizia
Analyst, Equita

Thanks a lot for the presentation and taking my question. Of course, I need to remain on the data center because it's the most interesting part. So just wondering, you're including the 400 million euros as the return on the investment. But is there the whole upside of serving the energy providing the heating or is that included within the 400 million euros? And if it's so, How much of that 400 would be purely the return on direct investment rather than service? So maybe 30% is direct investment, 70% is servicing for heating and so on. Just a clarification, is that referring to the baseline scenario and not to the full upside potential, just to clarify that? I'm wondering if in that 400 million there is any inclusion of connection fees or the connection fees would potentially come on top of that because that changes the overall return assumption. I would like to recall Javier's question on the 2035 because actually the old target was 3.3 billion. So if I add up the 400 million, I would be on 3.7, but the target is 3.6. So basically there's a difference of 100 million. Is that because part of the data center was already included in the old plan for the renewables contribution, for example? So just wondering if part of that was already in the old targets. Then if you can share a little bit, one piece of your assumption, which has to do with the CCGT. So as a lot of the energy is going to probably provided by CCGT, I guess you're assuming an improvement of the underlying spark spread, which are today negative. Can you share us just how much improvement in spark spread sits into the assumption of the data center contribution? And yeah, one final one, if you can, highlight it back again, the source of the significant client addition through the plan. So as the market conditions are changing significantly and you several times reported higher competitions, shrinking margins and so on, but you're still sticking to the significant growth in market share on the client. So maybe we can touch base a little bit on that topic. Thanks a lot.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Thank you, Alberto. Starting once again from the data center. The four million areas of ABDA is totally linked to the direct investment in data center. So, it's completely out every ABDA that arrives from connection, distributing, generation, supply, and so on. that are included inside the other businesses. The 1.6 billion is included in the 23, and this is the main reason for why we shifted from 22 to 23 billion. of capex, so there are 1.6 billion of capex more than the last plan, 400 million euros of BDA in 2035 more. It's correct, the sum is 3.7, there is a problem of approximation because the last was a little bit less than 3.3, this is a little bit more than 3.6, but overall this is the target. What is interesting, and I understand your question, your doubt, is that we have not changed our target in, for example, grid connection, totally energy supply B2B. Yes, there is a growth, but not so huge. or margin in generation, CGT, for example. Also, if you imagine that the load factor of CGTs will change totally because to be able to source the data center, probably we need to go from 20% to 50% more or less. Well, so it's clear that there are some upside inside this business, but we believe in this moment. that is not bad to remain conservative in the valuation of our structural business, considering that we are facing the new business of location development and location of data center in which our target is material, 400 million euros is material. So we want to face this plan approaching the data center 360 from all the perspective no when uh joking i said i don't want to go to to do the dj to the party is because if i arrive simply plug the energy and all the business will be done by the developers i think that i am not doing my work so well so i think that there are opportunities in particular opportunities because there are place near our plants that can be super interesting for the development of this data center imagine do some example to stay near silla in milan near the west energy plant in brescia near cassano cassano 30 30 40 kilometers from from milano all situation in which you can have huge direct generation with redundancy In Cassano, for example, in this moment, we have two plants because we have the old CGTs and the new pickers, 108 megawatts installed two years ago, that are able to give two direct sources of energy, redundancy, completely disconnected from the network, the grid, without paying charges. So I think that this activity... can be really effective. And surely I think that there are upside inside our historical businesses for the development. For example, one single example, very easy, there is not upside in development of district eating in Milano linked to the heat recovery that can arrive from the district eating. Only this example you can understand. And this is the reason for why. In the closing remarks, I said, okay, there are other 300 million of BDA linked to potential upside in which our bottleneck can be the financial discipline and in which it's possible also to find partners to be able to develop more. We'll see.

speaker
Luca Moroni
Chief Financial Officer

On Spark Spread. Yeah, the Spark Spread, as Renato said, the assumptions are very coherent with the previous scenario. So we haven't considered an upside in the Spark Spread coming from the development of the new opportunities of the data center platform. And maybe in a conservative way, because it is too early to understand the concrete effect of this kind of opportunity on the prices. and the level of the demand, we are quite sure that they could potentially increase both the volumes and the prices if the situation as it seems to be considering the request to Terna for the connection seems to lead to a really potential new opportunity. we have considered in the plan only what we are doing with our projects. Also, the direct investment are based on few opportunities we have already identified. We are already under discussion with the developer in the lands we can have available for the connection to the grid or not to the grid, directly to our plants. and to have the opportunity to exploit directly, extracting the most of the marginality we can. But again, it is, let's say, a few projects, very few, As we presented last year, a concrete approach with the life yards. Nowadays, our approach is ready to power in a concrete way.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

Talking about the customer base, you have to consider two elements. It's sure that there is a competitive market. But you have seen how we're growing in electricity customers, 61% between 2020 and today. So we are very focused in premium acquisition. So we are working to avoid the risk to do, let's say, the washing machine with the customer without value. So the problem is to decide clearly which are the channel and the typology of customer that are interesting. In this case, also due to the fact that we have a customer base also in this region with a market share very interesting and very strong with very low churn, we imagine to be able to grow reaching a target that is big but is not monster. Because in this moment we are at 3.6 million of customer. We imagine to arrive in 10 years to 5 million. So you can understand that the growth that we imagine in the next year is not the same that we have seen in 60%, 12% year by year in the last five years. exactly because there is more competition and because the market is this one it's not a market that grow and there are some players surely aggressive But we optimized our acquisition strategy, covering all segments and with a super concentration electricity market that is growing very well. Also because I think that customer can understand the differences between the companies that really produce energy and that only trade energy. For example, our PPS mass market offer is growing. is more than 100 000 customer 10 years a contract you know but it's very interesting for us also because he's able to edge with this customer base retail our renewable production But it's interesting because the price that we reduced exactly in the last weeks, because there is a scenario which is possible to reduce this price, arrived to 105%. euros for megawatt hours is super interesting fix for 10 years so it's super competitive and it's very difficult for a company that trade energy to be able to propose on the market this kind of products so i think that our capacity to compete is huge on the market electrical market less in the gas and this is the reason for why our strategy is working to change completely completely the market share between the two customers

speaker
Marco
Capital Market Day Moderator

Let's take one more question from the floor, then we move to the line and then back to the floor. Francesco Sala from Banca Acros.

speaker
Francesco Sala
Analyst, Banca Akros

Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the hedging activity for 2026. If you can share with us an update on quantity and prices. The second one is if you can give us a sense of the efficiency of new CCGT plants compared to the so-called CCGT. traditional ones. And finally, what are your assumptions on electricity prices during the plants horizon and wax for the regulated businesses and CPI? Thank you.

speaker
Luca Moroni
Chief Financial Officer

The hedging level, now we have reached, we are not at the end of the year yet, so 60%. of the fixed price at 111. This is in line with our expectation. and in line with the price of our scenario. As I said, the scenario consider a price of the energy in between 105, 108. So, this is absolutely current. Last year, it was above 120.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

about the efficiency of GGTs. I'll tell you a story. When we decided to revamp Monfalcone, Monfalcone was a coal plant. A coal plant has an efficiency of 30%, but consider that an old CGT plant, for example our plant on the river Mincio, is less than 50%. When we did a beauty contest to buy the machine for Monfalcone, there was a tender between the three typical players, Siemens, GE and Ansaldo Energia. And one of the most... important elements during the tender was the efficiency and the differences was our planting we closed the agreement with Siemens at the end 63% of efficiency the other player was 62 point 62 point but the differences of 0.1 0.2 is the differences to be called by Terno or not to be called Because when Terna asks for energy, the elements to cool the plants, the generation plants, is linked to the CO2 production, let's say. So it's super important to... to be efficient not only because you are more sustainable, the price of energy is lower, but because the plants work more. And in this moment, the difference is incredible. So the old fleet that we have in Italy has an efficiency less than 50%. Between 40 and 50 depends from the plant. The new fleet that is under construction from E2A, Edison, Enel, EP, has more or less an efficiency between 62 and 63. This is the situation. That is super good news for Italy, because the two models that you can have in this moment to close the gap between renewable and consumption, Are nuclear or CGETs? In this moment, it's difficult to have another way. I think that it's difficult to see nuclear in Italy in the next years, you can imagine. But in Italy, we have a fleet of CGETs super-performant, in particular for the CAPEX that we did in the last year. And was done this investment to avoid the risk of blackout. So to make our grid and our network resilient. And now is able to source the data center, because the data center surely grow with the demand, but not double the demand. So there is a grow that is completely is absolutely possible to be managed with the actual fleet that we have. Also because during this year, The renewable will grow because the target is 63% in 2030. I think that is key to be reached. And so the mix between renewable, battery storage, you have seen 30-35 years for time shift. It's super low, guys, because when we have seen the... The base price for the tenders of Max that was 37 euros for megawatt and was assigned to 13. The differences in timesheet is between 60 euros for megawatt hours and 30. And these are the differences between to have a renewable that can be competitive all the day or not. So I think that the situation in which in Italy we have renewable that works well, battery storage, low price, and CGT's high efficiency can work. Then in the future will arrive carbon capture and storage, we'll see. And other good news maybe. But now is absolutely enough to face the situation today.

speaker
Luca Moroni
Chief Financial Officer

To be more precise, Francesco, I was referring, of course, to 2026 with the edging of 60. 25, it is nowadays more than 80. And regarding the CPI index, it is 1.8.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

And the price of energy, we imagine that will remain stable around... 110 euros for megawatt hours. 100, 110, but the situation is this one. With a little bit of volatility, but now the volatility is very low. Very low compared with the other period in the story. It's very high, but compared with the last years, it's very low. All the scenario says that due to the demand and to the fact that in Italy there is no elasticity, No, sorry, there is a lot of elasticity because we are short of generation. The situation is that the price, the pool price will remain more or less what it is today.

speaker
Marco
Capital Market Day Moderator

So now let's move to those guys connected to the line, please.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

So the next question is from Sarah Lester, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

speaker
Sarah Lester
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you very much, I hope you can hear me okay. Sorry to focus on the data centre angle but I do just want to unpack this a little bit more please to be totally clear. So firstly basically if we look at the 2028 to 2035 EBITDA guidance given today that does include some data centre uplift, I just think it will be very helpful to understand just how resilient that guidance is to a negative change in the pace of the data centre build out. So, of course, ATOI's business mix is very robust and you mentioned many tools in the toolbox. I presume, therefore, that it does offer very good optionality for other growth opportunities. So, just wanting to really clarify the resilience of your guide, please, to a downside data centre case. And then on the upside case, you mentioned the full potential of data centres is not included in the plan, that the opportunity could be much larger. And I think this is a really critical point. So to clarify, please, is it fair to conclude from everything you've said so far that there could be meaningful upside in a variety of your classical businesses like generation, grid, district heating and water that goes above and beyond today's plan? Thank you.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

Okay, yeah, if you look at 2835, there is a growth, that is included in our historical plan. It's the same of lifeguard plans because there are some few moving parts. For example, a little reduction in immobility, a little reduction in biogas or in some other business, but all the capex was recovered in the growth of power grid. Consider that we are in a situation in which power grid is able to absorb, let's say, an infinite quantity of capex. All the capex that we can put on the table are able to be absorbed by the power grid. So, to understand what happened in our company, when we arrived in June, we do a mid review of the capex i call all my guys i say okay are you able to do all the capex if there are some capex not sure to the power grid because power grid don't need permitting works in his assets and is able to delivery every quantity of so Despite the 400 million and 1.6 billion of the data center, I think that our plan is super solid because there is a mix of business that is surely able to deliver the numbers that we have seen. Coming back to the data center, first of all I think that surely in Italy will arrive data center. The situation in this moment of the data center is that there are 10,000 data centers in the world, 5,000 in US, only 2,000 in Europe, only 168 in Italy. And Italy is the 13th country in the world for data center installed. And we need, surely, a lot of data center simply to arrive to the benchmark. And consider that there is an issue of strategical autonomy of Europe on some topic like artificial intelligence. And we need to have, in some countries, surely data centers. Milano in this moment is considered, with Madrid and Zurigo, the three cities in Europe that in the next years will grow more in data center. Also because in this moment, compared with the target, with the benchmark, Milano is much lower. I said that in Milano, in this moment, the only data center of medium size is from Telecom and is 30 megawatt near Milano. So surely we have to work a lot. so i think that is impossible that in in next years we don't see new data centers the topic is a way we'll be able to attract and to develop a data center or not the killer application is the fact that the data center With that way, inside is able to connect it to our generation plant, is able to be super competitive against the other on the cost of energy. That is 65% of the total OPEX of the data center. So I think that is possible. The business model is 1.6 billion of capex allocated to build a data center, of course with a partner able to do, and 400 million of location, so of a BDA that arrives from revenues from location. I imagine that the plan can be solid. Of course, if no one data centre will arrive in Italy, compared with this industrial plan, it can be a downside. From the other side, I think that there are a lot of upsides, exactly because the effect of a 2A-like energy partner surely will arrive, because in a world in which electrical consumption will grow, The national law and the regional law in the next month will say that it's key to do good water management, to recover it in the district heating, to be able to be well connected to the network, to use brownfield areas, and so on. I think that opens the door to incredible opportunities for a company like H-WAY. in Lombardy. And so the upside are surely inside our historical business plan, in which, frankly speaking, we didn't change our historical target. And so there is space to grow in the other business.

speaker
Luca Moroni
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, if I can add, you have seen the list of potential projects we have and we have not considered in the CAPEX plan. It is clearly listed. Of course, this helped us in the case we could have a downsize in any situation to readjust the CAPEX plan with the list we have aside on which we continue to work internally. So it is not... a list of dreams. It is a real list of projects on which we are going to work every day. So it is easy to switch one project with another in the case one project is not going at the end or could be finalized in the way we want.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

We were able in the last five years to do 10 billion of CAPEX between organic and inorganic and to move the BDA from 1.2 to 2.2 billion euros. I think that the proof that we are able to fix targets, real targets, and also to surpass it is in our history.

speaker
Luca Moroni
Chief Financial Officer

And from a financial point of view, if I can add, it is very clear how strong is the situation considering the cash generation coming from our projects. And this is the answer to be able to maintain a certain speed without slowing down and to have the opportunity to continue to grow organically and to look at opportunities because we have the solidity of a leverage ratio very affordable, a nice FFO to net debt. Really in the position to look at the upside potential in a very positive way.

speaker
Marco
Capital Market Day Moderator

So now back to the floor, Davide Candela from Intesa.

speaker
Davide Candela
Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Thank you, Marco. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions. First one, again, I won't be redundant on data centers, a clarification. Just thinking how you want to feed this data center, because I was reading through your numbers. and it looks like the CCGTs by 2035, they have load factors that are below 20%. So it is about that you see the change in a mix, and so the CCGTs will be just for bigger solutions or not, or because you are not including, as you said, those potential to be just a supplier, because this is key to me to see the value of the, CCGT fleet you have and how this value will be maintained in the future or not. Second question also on energy supply. This is a high-level question, just a share of your view about the competition. My question is, do you see a scenario in which, do you see a further increase in competition when you are required to put retention costs, as you did in the past, to maintain those high-value customers you are seeing today? Because everybody is focusing on their performance. value-added customer base, and so I was wondering if you see a scenario like that or not. And final question about your sites and opportunities in Europe, how much you are including in the plan in terms of CapEx, or if you are not, and if you can deepen more on your strategic approach in that. Thank you.

speaker
Renato Mazzoncini
Chief Executive Officer

Okay. I think, thanks for your question, I think that coming back to CGETs and data centers, probably I can use an example that can be interesting for you. We received this year, or last year, I don't remember, the authorization for a new CGETs high efficiency in Cassano. So in this moment, we have authorization to build a new CGT plant, 63 of efficiency in Castanodad. And if you look on web, you can find a lot of discussion about the opportunity to build a pipeline to bring not only electricity but also heat recovery from that plant and Milano district heating. To build the CGETs we are waiting for the tenders for capacity market probably in February we'll see. But if we'll arrive and we'll arrive probably we are Almost sure that will arrive. The tenders for capacity market. And we will do the application, of course, to be able to build the new CGTs. The demand will be, okay, but will build also the infrastructure to bring one terawatt hours of heat recovery to Milano for district heating or not? And this depends simply from the hypothesis that a part of a plant will work baseload or not. Because, of course, if... the work is only like picker is impossible to imagine that is able to source a distributed thing. But imagine now to build near Cassano a data center, a big data center, 200 megawatt. That means CGETs that works baseload for a part of a capacity. probably enable the opportunity to recover heat from the data center and from the plant, but can be a super opportunity for Milano because we have to face the decarbonization in Milano, and it's not easy to face the decarbonization with heat pumps in the single building. So it's interesting to understand how a data center in CGT can have a mutualistic symbiosis because data centers need baseload energy and CGT is perfect to work baseload. So I think that the opportunity in this moment to have space in CGT's generation is super news to be able to develop really data center in Lombardy and in Italy. So talking about Europe, the CAPEX are included. So consider that we have, in this moment, 23 billion for Dan, because it's the plan 2435. Four under construction. Eight, more or less, to assign. So we have authorization. We can start, but we can also change. And seven to find. So in this moment, the opportunity from Europe is that if there are opportunities in which we see a time to market better and a better return, we can decide to change some projects that we have in Italy with projects in other countries. The goal is, from one side, to become an European company. And frankly speaking, I think that is very important for all the big companies in Europe to have the mind of an European company. From the other side, to reduce the risk, because if you are able to do cherry picking in Europe, Other countries in business that we know very well, in which our leadership is known, in which there are opportunities of return better, why not? This is the strategy. Of course, probably it's easier to arrive with the first move in organic. but it's typical but also if you go in calabria typically we start from an organic move and and then you can consider this strategy once again like a way to the risk of a plan the risk in terms to be able surely to do to put On the table, really, the 23 billion of Euros of capex. And on the supply retention, we paid the retention because during the foolish situation that we had during the war, you remember we had some customer totally out of position with price 300 euro for megawatt hour and we decided to put on the table how many money, 100 million, 100 million of euros. The last 20 in this year, uh um exactly not to penalize our our customer because we believe a lot in the strong relation between uh a2a and our customer i think that is also also customer b2b and and so in this moment there are no needs of cost of retention the need is to be able to find a customer of quality. I understand that you say, okay, but all the players want a quality customer, of course. Probably the difference is that, once again, our position in the Northern Italy is not bad. The other element that I think is very important is that our awareness in this moment is 60%, 65%. our market share is less than 10, is seven, eight. So the huge differences between market share and awareness is the funnel that helps apps to grow. Not to enough to 20 million of customer, but to five, yes.

speaker
Marco
Capital Market Day Moderator

Thank you, everyone. We are out of time. If you have a need for any type of follow-up, please contact the IR department. Thank you, Renato. Thank you, Luca. Thank you all. And thank you, everyone.

Disclaimer

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