2/26/2026

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Ekstron's first quarter and full year 2025 results conference call. Please note that today's call is being recorded. Let me now hand you over to Mr. Christian Ludwig, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications at Ekstron for opening remarks and introductions.

speaker
Christian Ludwig
Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, Ekstron

Christian Ludwig. Thank you very much, Anna. A warm welcome to Ekstron's 2025 results call. My name is Christian Nutrich. I am the head of investor relations and corporate communications at Exxon. With me in the room today are our CEO, Dr. Felix Kravart, and our CFO, Dr. Christian Daninger, who will guide you through today's presentation and then take your questions. This call is being recorded by Exxon and is considered copyright material. As such, it cannot be recorded or rebroadcast without permission. Your participation in this call implies your consent to this recording. All documents referred to in this call can be accessed via our website in the investor relations section. Please take note of the disclaimer that you find on slide one of the presentation document as it applies throughout the conference call. This call is not being immediately presented by a webcast or any other medium. However, we intend to place a transcript on our website at some point after the call. I would now like to hand you over to our CEO for his opening remarks. Felix, the floor is yours.

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Thank you, Christian. Let me also welcome you all to our full year 25 presentation. I will start with an overview of the highlights of the year and then hand over to Christian for more details on our financial figures. Finally, I will give you an update on the development of our business and our new guidance. Let me start by giving you an overview of the highlights of the year on slide two. The most important messages of the day from my viewpoint are In 2025, we have performed well in a soft market environment by achieving revenues of 557 million, a decline of 12% year-over-year. That translates into a CAGR of more than 13% since 2020. We delivered on our adjusted 2025 revenue guide, meeting the upper end of our guidance given in October 25. Mainly due to the lower utilization in operations, due to one-off restructuring cost, and due to G10 ramp-up adjustments, our gross profit was down 15% to 222 million euros, and EBIT was slightly down with minus 24% at 100 million as a result of this. Similar to last year, we finished the year with a strong Q4 25 performance. We achieved 31% EBIT margin, a level comparable to last year's extraordinary Q4. This marks a great achievement of our operations team as we managed to realize all shipments that customers had asked us to deliver in Q4. The highlight of the operating performance is our cash flow generation. Operating cash flow increased by more than €180 million to €208 million. And our free cash flow increased by more than €250 million to €182 million. With that, we concluded the year 25 with a cash level of 225 million euros, a good step toward rebuilding our strong cash position that we always have desired. Thus, despite the weekend net profit, we have decided to propose a stable dividend of 15 euros per share to our shareholder. Our outlook for the year 2026 is based on an expected continued weaker market environment. We expect revenues to come in at 520 million euros in a range of plus or minus 30 million, with a gross margin between 41 and 42%, and an EBIT margin between 16 and 19%. Breaking this down per segment, AI will be the key revenue driver in 2026. fueling strong growth in optoelectronics and lasers through rising demand for optical interconnect. In contrast, thick silicon carbide power will face a weak year due to overcapacity and slowing EV momentum, with LED and micro-LED and land power demand remaining broadly stable. This concludes the short highlight section. I will now hand over to our CFO, Christian Dunninger. He will take you through the full year 2025 momentum. Christian? Thanks, Felix, and hello to everyone. Let me start with the highlights of our revenue development on slide four. As Felix mentioned, the revenues in 2025 were down 12% to 557 million euros. Our strategy of serving various uncorrelated end markets with our equipment proved again successful in 2025. We saw strong growth in the optoelectronics area. This compensated, to some extent, the weaker demand for equipment for LED and micro-LED, as well as gallium nitride power electronics. The breakdown for application shows that 57% of equipment revenues comes from GAN and SIGPOWER, 23% from optoelectronics, 15% from LED, and a 5% contribution from R&D tools. The after-sales business contributed to total revenues with a growth 1% to 112 million euros. The aftersales share of revenues grew to 20% up from 17% a year ago. Now, let's take a closer look at the financial KPIs on the income statement on slide five. Gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point versus 2024 to 40%, which was primarily due to lower utilization operations, G10 ramp-up adjustment expenses, and a one-off restructuring cost. Accordingly, gross profit was down by 15% year-over-year to 222 million euros. As we had planned, our spending on R&D in the year 2025 decreased to a total of 81 million euros due to a reduction in external contract work and lower consumables costs. This helped to drive our OPEX down 7% to 122 million euros. Combined with the lower gross profit, this resulted in an EBIT of 100 million euros, which is 24% lower year over year. Net profit was down 20% year on year at 85 million euros. This results in an effective tax rate of 15% in fiscal year 2025. A clear positive were our Q4 2025 gross and EBIT margins at 46% and 31% respectively. Despite the 18% lower revenues number at 187 million euros, we were able to beat the very strong level of Q4 2024 on gross margin level and meet it on EBIT margins. Orders in the quarter came in at 170 million euros, an uptick of 8% versus last year's quarter. For the full year, order intake came in at 544 million euros, slightly weaker than last year, and thus our backlog at 258 million euros is down by 11% year-over-year due to the above-mentioned softness in demand. Now to our balance sheet on slide six. We ended the year 2025 with a total cash balance including other financial assets of 225 million euros, which was well above the 65 million euros last year. There are a number of factors driving this increase. Firstly, inventory levels at the end of 2025 came down by about 85 million euros to 284 million euros compared to 360 million euros at the end of 2020. This is the result of our adjusted supply chain strategy and corresponding measures after initially front-loading the supply chain in 2024 in expectation of stronger revenue growth. We target a further reduction of inventory levels through 2026. Second, we have seen a solid decrease in outstanding receivables compared to the last year, and which generated some 60 million euros in cash. As a result of putting on the brakes in our supply chain early on, the amount of payables have been stable during the course of the year. Advanced payments received from customers, on the other hand, were slightly down year-over-year at 44 million euros due to the decline in order intake combined with a shift in the regional customer base and partially impacted by some key data effects. At year end, down payments represented about 17% of all the backlog. As a consequence of all these factors, operating cash flow improved by more than 180 million euros to 208 million in the financial year 2025. As mentioned already in previous course, CapEx decreased significantly in 2025 due to no additional investment requirements for the innovation center. As a result of the significantly lower capex, free cash flow improved by more than 250 million euros year-over-year to 182 million from negative 72 million euros in 2024. We expect further solid free cash flow generation in 2026. Lastly, we are proposing a stable dividend of 15 euro cents per share. Despite our lower net earnings, we want our shareholders to participate in the improved cash flow generation. Going forward, following an intensive investment phase in the years 2023 and 2024, Apex alone for the Innovation Center was 100 million euros. Extron plans to use the cash flow in 2026 to further build a strong cash position. Also, I want to remind you that Extron expressively Expressly does not pursue a fixed dividend policy, but rather adjust the payout ratio to reflect the respective business performance and capital allocation priorities. With that, let me hand you back over to Felix. Thank you, Christian. I will continue by giving you a brief summary of the key market trends we saw last year, and before I move on to our expectations for 26. I will start with our currently weakest segment, the silicon carbide power business, before moving on towards the strongest segment step by step. As I see, throughout the past year, the global silicon carbide market has undergone a significant transition. In Western markets, we are seeing a temporary slowdown driven by weaker electric vehicle demand and substantial idle capacity at several customers. This has even resulted in reduced or scrapped six-inch capacity in some cases. We expect the digestion period for silicon carbide epitools to continue throughout 2026 in Western markets. China, by contrast, remained the strong pillar of demand in 25 for Acton, with solid order intake and robust shipments in the first half of the year. In the second half of 25, also in China, SIC demand has softened. And in 26, we expect the digestion to continue also in China. Despite this short-term softness, the mid-term outlook for SIC beyond 26 remains highly attractive. Substrate prices have dropped significantly, making silicon carbide devices far more competitive versus silicon IGBTs, and enabling broad market adoption, both in EVs and across industrial applications. Even more importantly, the technological transition is well underway. The industry is rapidly moving from 6-inch to 8-inch wafers, starting with Western customers, now also in China, with a full shift expected towards 27 and 28. At the same time, the introduction of superjunction silicon-carbide MOSFETs which require multiple thin epitaxial layers instead of a single thick layer, will significantly increase epitool demand. Our batch-based G10 SSE platform is ideally positioned for this new operating model and has already achieved major milestones with the shipment of our 100th system during 2025. In 2026, we expect very small demand and no difference in SSE. Contribute to the attention of our group members. This is the main reason I have started in this webinar. In the meantime, looking across the next three or four years, building for our government needs the consumption of natural resources. We have short orders. at the beginning of 25 and has been steadily recovering extra maintains a clear market leadership position with more than 85 percent market share across darn device classes and we remain deeply engaged with customers expanding their gam roadmaps into coming years importantly GaN is emerging as a central technology for AI-driven power architecture, particularly as hyperscale data centers plan the transition to high-efficiency 800-volt platforms. We expect additional volume from GaN from AI applications at some time in the 2027 and 2028 timeframe. The exact timing for when this happens is unknown. and we will keep you posted when signs of this are getting clearer. In parallel, we are working with a small set of customers on 300-millimeter GANs. These customers have existing 300-millimeter silicon fabs, which they desire to repurpose for GANs. Our 300-millimeter GAN tool is fully operational with our own innovation center, as we call our 300-millimeter clean room. and collaborations with INAC and leading power semiconductor manufacturers are ongoing. Now, let me come to the LED and micro-LED market. After a period of muted investment, now the market for red, orange, and yellow LEDs, we call them Roy LEDs, is showing clear signs of recovery, driven primarily by development in trim. This momentum from display makers who are pushing the boundaries of image quality. In fact, several major TV manufacturers are now transitioning to full RGB backlighting architectures, which further boosts demand for ROY LED LED tools. This trend underscores a broader shift. Even traditional LED backlighting is being reinvented, establishing mini-LEDs at preliminary storage stage towards micro-LEDs. Enhanced local dimming, full-color backplanes, and ultra-high brightness panels are now becoming standard and premium consumer displays. These innovations are breathing new life into an application space that many consider mature. At the same time, exploratory and qualification work of customers toward micro-LEDs continues with customers in Europe, U.S., and Asia. The focus of this work has shifted away from watch and television, now strongly towards AR, VR, glass applications. We expect this market is still some time out into the future until a larger revenue contributes. And given the fact that one wafer can serve hundreds of AR glasses, the expected demand will be much, much smaller than what we would have anticipated for television applications. Overall, we can say that for Xtron, ROY LEDs and micro LEDs together translate into a solid revenue contribution of around 15% of group revenue for both 25 and 26. Now, let's finally come to our strongest segment in 26, the lasers for datacom. The global indium phosphate laser market has entered a new phase of growth And from Q4-25 onwards, we have seen an even stronger momentum in this segment. We have served this market for many years with our proven G3 and G4 platforms historically for telecom and datacom applications, supporting the further adoption of high-speed broadband communication. And first, cloud services with a market share we estimate well north of 90%. The demand we see today is linked to a structural upcycle linked to AI data center build-out and the development of data-hungry new generation of GPUs. And this structural shift creates the demand for indium-phosphate-based lasers grown by MOCVD with a massive adoption of optical interconnect now also within the data center architecture. As bandwidth requirements move to 800 gig and data 1.6T, the laser content per data center is increasing multifold to enable the required bandwidth. Our customers are subsequently not only ramping their manufacturing, but also rolling out new product generations with higher bandwidth that are also more integrated, like photonic integrated circuit peaks, now in order to be almost faster, more compact, and more energy efficient. For the majority of our users, their road trip now includes a shift away from three and four inch to six inch wafer size. That is an enormous step for a market that has been historically very conservative. It enables them to access the advanced manufacturing technologies for these new types of products. Our G10 ASP product has rapidly established itself as the tool of record, as we say, for these new generation of photonic devices. replacing customer legacy systems, producing higher yield and cheaper 150-millimeter helium phosphate epiwafers. We are serving all of the top 10 suppliers to this market, and demand is coming from all regions of the world, from leading suppliers in the U.S., from the ones in Europe, but also from optoelectronic leaders in Japan, in Taiwan, and in China. Looking at demand dynamics, we expect the optoelectronics business for more than double year-over-year from 2025 into 2026. With this, it makes up for a large part of the revenue that declined in silicon carbide that I illustrated earlier. Finally, let me now present our full year guidance for 2026 to you on slide 90. This guidance takes into account all the factors that I just described previously. We expect revenues to come in at 520 million in range of plus minus 30 million. We expect a 2026 gross margin of 41 to 42%, and an EBIT margin between 16 and 19%. The effects of a personnel reduction we have initiated in the beginning of 26 are already included in this forecast. Now, let me comment on the first quarter of 26. As usual, sales in the first quarter of the financial year will be lower than the annual average of quarters. In Q126, we expect revenues of 65 million in the range of plus minus 10 million. This is comparatively low figure, fully in line with expectations and with a seasonal pattern of the business. For completeness, we've adjusted our USD to Euro budget exchange rate, in which we record US dollar denominated orders and backlogs to 120 US dollars per year. With this outlook, I'll pass it back to Christian.

speaker
Christian Ludwig
Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, Ekstron

Thank you very much, Felix. Thank you, Christian. Anna, we will now be happy to take the questions.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Thank you very much also from my side, Ben. So, dear ladies and gentlemen, to state a question, please press 9 and the star key on your telephone keypad now to enter the queue. I repeat, the combination is 9 star. If you find your question answered before it is your turn to see, please press three star to withdraw your question. But first, please press nine star. We have a couple of questions already incoming. One moment for the first question, please. All right. So, the first question is from Ruben Deros of . Please.

speaker
Ruben Deros
Analyst

Yes, hello, do you hear me?

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Yes, we hear you.

speaker
Ruben Deros
Analyst

Great. Thank you for taking my questions. I just had one on the guidance basically pointing to 520 million a year. Obviously, you start of the year at 65 million, which is about 12% of the total. So just curious about how you see the quarterly cadence at this stage and what might give you maybe the confidence that orders of, I think you talk about 280 million, whether that will materialize at the pace needed for a strong H2. Thank you.

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Yeah, thank you very much. We expect, again, in 26, the pattern that we have seen in previous years, where we have the year pretty much back and loaded towards Q3 and Q4. I think that's a seasonal pattern, which we have already seen in 2024 and 2025. If you recall, in 24, the fourth quarter, we even shipped over 200 million. Now, in the fourth quarter, it was around 180 million, so it's not uncommon that we are backend or backwards loaded. I think it will not be as heavy in 26, but the Q1 is very weak. I think Q2, Q3 onwards, we should be maybe around 110, 120, 130, I don't know, something like this, so north of 100, yeah, I would say, and then clearly in the Q4, I think we will be peaking, yeah, so nothing to be concerned. Don't expect the Q2 is, again, another 65, and I think we would be a little dry. but that's not going to happen.

speaker
Ruben Deros
Analyst

Oh, okay.

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Does that answer your question?

speaker
Ruben Deros
Analyst

Yes, certainly. Thank you. The second one is just around the G10, which is the tool of record that the leading laser customers. When a customer qualifies your tool and locks in, how long does that qualification typically last before it needs to be let's say, re-competed. I'm just trying to understand a bit the stickiness of your opto business and whether your position today, which is very strong, obviously, whether that's a meaningful barrier already or whether there, for each new product generation, that sort of, yeah, reopens the door for competitions.

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

I think in the laser business, you have probably the most sticky and the most difficult to re-qualify from all the segments. So, with many customers, qualification efforts have been going on since one or two years already, and the complexity comes in the qualification for a laser tool from the fact that it's not just one simple laser, one simple layer like you have in silicon carbide. And as I see, this is our most simple tool, I would say. You have one single layer, yeah, a thick single layer, and every customer is doing kind of almost the same. Now, in contrast, in the laser domain, Typically, each wafer gets not only put into the tool once for one layer, but the laser customers have very advanced structures. And in these modern architectures and high-speed devices that is currently now making up the market, many wafers of our customers see the tool three, four, five, or even six times from the inside, meaning the customer makes a layer, doing some other steps, the wafer is put into the tool again, makes another layer and so on and so forth. And you can imagine if something changes in the deposition and that is repeated five or six times, yeah, an error or a change is then repeated or taken to the power of five or taken to the power of six. So, it depends on the very, very precise repeatability, yeah. And so, with many of these customers, we've been working since multiple tools, multiple years, That's also the reason why the G10 ASP, which we launched already in 21, 22, is only now getting the strong momentum from the laser market because the qualification has taken such a long time.

speaker
Ruben Deros
Analyst

Okay. Okay, thank you. And just a final question is that you're launching the 300-millimeter Hyperion tool commercially in 26. Just curious, how many customer qualifications are currently underway, and when would you expect sort of the first repeat orders to come in?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

We work with multiple customers. I think it's important to differentiate. Some customers are, I would say, in an exploratory and research stage, and there's many of these. I don't know. I think probably double-digit or so. However, I think from commercial relevance, 300 millimeter will, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, initially only for a relatively small number of customers. And that is those dyes who have a very big 300 millimeter silicon fat, which they want to repurpose and convert an existing 300 millimeter silicon line to a 300 millimeter gallium nitride line. I think all the other stuff like micro LED and so on is more like, yeah, playing around, researching, exploring ways, but I think those market segments probably take another, I don't know, two, three, maybe four years until they really mature. We're engaged. We work on a lot, yeah, but I think in terms of revenue and really making numbers, that's still quite some time away.

speaker
Christian Ludwig
Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, Ekstron

Great. Thank you.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Thank you very much. The next question is from Martin . I'm sorry if I mispronounce your name. From . Please, over to you. I think so. Martin, unfortunately, we cannot hear you anymore. Maybe something went wrong. Please press 9 and star again.

speaker
Christian Ludwig
Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, Ekstron

Let us continue with the next question, please. We can take it later.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

The next question is from Rohan Bal of Barclays. Please, over to you.

speaker
Rohan Bal
Analyst, Barclays

Hi there. Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to touch on that 300-meter GAN tool. I mean, your peer said overnight they had gotten several orders on 300-meter GAN already. So I just wanted to check your progress on getting Hyperion ready for production volume lines rather than sort of your more R&D quality tool that you have at the minute.

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

I think we are very well on track with respect to that. We have also multiple orders, again, from these few customers that I was mentioning.

speaker
Rohan Bal
Analyst, Barclays

Okay, great. And maybe just on the 800-volt AI data center opportunity of GAN, Everyone's getting excited about this. So just curious on how things are progressing here. What have customers been saying to you and whether you're still sort of expecting orders to ramp up materially in the second half? I've noticed your backlog has been building for 2027. So I wonder if there's any 800-volt business in there.

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

So the 800-volt is splitting essentially into multiple types along the architecture. You probably have seen the slides on the 800-volt architecture by NVIDIA and by major suppliers such as Infineon, right? So we are participating in multiple stages on that chain. The one part is coming from the overland line on the silicon carbide, which transfers from the over 10 kV down to 1,200 volts, 2 kV, 1 kV. This is the biggest part, silicon carbide. Then gallium nitride comes into play at 650 volts, at 100 volts, and even at lower stages like 20 volts. Yeah, so this is where we are participating. We are with multiple customers working on 650 and 100 volt devices for exactly this architecture. And to our understanding, the qualification effort of our customers means either IDMs or foundries, again, with their customers being the board makers and the power supply makers for these architectures is ongoing. To our understanding, there is no clear timeline on when exactly the switch is taking place yet. That is also the reason why I commented in my prepared remarks that we know that this is coming, and we are pretty sure that this is coming sometime in the timeframe. I always say 27 and 28, but we don't know exactly when it is coming, yeah? So, in the order backlog that you are referring to, I don't think there is still 800-volt orders in. I think this is other topics, more like EV, silicon carbide related. Of course, silicon carbide can be used for any segment. That's clear, yeah? But I think the button when exactly the 800 words getting pushed, yeah, and the orders are coming in, the timing is still a bit uncertain. I would not be able to give you the point in time at this period of time.

speaker
Rohan Bal
Analyst, Barclays

Great. No, thank you so much.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Thanks a lot. So, Martin Marindon from ODDO VTF is back. So, please, one more time. Over to you, Martin.

speaker
Martin
Analyst, ODDO VTF

Hi, sorry for what happened earlier. Thanks for taking my question. My first one is on photonics and opto, et cetera. Considering that several of your customers are talking about very significant indium phosphide capex increase this year, and I understand that the big acceleration in terms of orders was really in Q4 last year, do you think we are quite early in that capex cycle? Or do you think that 26 could be the peak? So how do you think about 27 at the moment?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Thanks a lot. I think that's a very good question. Let me try to shine a little more light on it, how we see it. And again, we only have, again, a piece of the puzzle, but let me try to explain what we are aware of and what we believe. So we see that the cycle really has kicked off towards the end of 25. So, you have seen that in the fourth Q4, 25, our photonics orders have significantly increased, yeah. Q1 to Q3, they were still on a relatively low level. In Q4, 25, our photonics orders have increased. We still, already now, in Q1, we see continued order momentum from our customers. Some orders have already received. Others are in discussion with customers. And we expect, and this is also, by the way, the reason you may have seen that our coverage of revenues with orders, our backlog is lower than we have seen in many past years because we are at the very beginning of a cycle. I think that explains this topic. Yeah, so on. However, we have indications from a number of customers, like kind of their roadmaps, their forecasts, what they need throughout the year. This is baked in our guidance, so our guidance reflects that already, and we expect that the orders are coming in essentially throughout Q1 and continuing to come in throughout Q2 and covering then the revenues that we have forecasted for the year. And as you see, it's a quite significant increase. Yeah, it's more than double year over year for the photomic side. And, I mean, this is very helpful for us because I think we all are aware silicon carbide is really dropping almost dead this year, yeah, meaning pulling a bit hole in our revenues. This hole is now just nicely getting filled up by the photonics. It's quite helpful. Now, I think you've indicated how long this extends into 27. Of course, it's very difficult to predict the future. My guess is it's not only one year, but it's extending beyond that. However, to comment how much or to which extent, and is the majority at 26, and is it even the same level at 27, or less than 27, or more at 27, that is too early. I have no indications to qualify that.

speaker
Martin
Analyst, ODDO VTF

Okay, thank you. And just another one for me on GAN adoption in data centers. I think in the past you said you You could expect orders in H2ZC or in 27, for 27 and 28 revenue. But how do you think about how the ramp will happen? What I mean by this is it looks like a big ramp. So how it usually happens with your customer? Do you have already some discussion with customers? when and how much you need to be ready, or do you really see that ramp once the orders start to come in basically?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

That's a very good question. I think both things come together at the same time. Typically, when a ramp for a new segment is happening, we see the first orders for that particular second or that particular application coming in from one customer or typically from two or three customers at the same period of time. Because normally then a segment is coming and also the guys who are using the chips are not only relying on one source but typically on two or on three sources. So typically we then get the first order particularly for a given segment to come in. And along with the orders that are coming in, We sit together with our customers. They share forecasts with us, and we jointly sit on the table making a ramping plan, yeah, because normally it's not that the customer needs only two tools or only ten tools, but rather the customer has a plan. They look here. In the first year, I need ten. In the next year, I need 15. In the year thereafter, I need 15. How do we best do it? How do we best distribute it over time? And so on and so forth. Yeah, this is normally what's happening. And I expect when this 800 volt time ramp is really starting, we are not there yet, you know, but then I expect to have these discussions with customers.

speaker
Martin
Analyst, ODDO VTF

Thank you.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Thank you very much. Thank you very much. The next question is from Oliver Wong of Bank of America.

speaker
Oliver Wong
Analyst, Bank of America

Hey, guys. Thanks for answering my question. My first question is, again, back to Greater Millimeter Dan. understand that the, you know, we're not expecting huge revenues up front. But I was wondering, so my understanding is that, you know, whether it's with the 200 millimeter or the 300, usually customers kind of, you know, go with one major supplier, one tool of record, so to speak. I was wondering, you know, what kind of timing can we expect, you know, for the leading 300 mil GAN suppliers to kind of make a decision on that?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

I think Q4, Q3 or Q4 of 26.

speaker
Oliver Wong
Analyst, Bank of America

Got it. Thanks a lot. And my other question is regarding the lead times. I was wondering if we can get an update on currently where the lead times are for, you know, the major ad markets and kind of, you know, where we expect that to trend.

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Excuse me. I didn't understand your question.

speaker
Oliver Wong
Analyst, Bank of America

Are the lead times between orders and revenues for kind of your major and market categories?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

I think we are probably around, I think it depends by the market, somewhere between seven and ten months, I would say, or six and ten months, something like this. But honestly, I don't have it broken down by end market. Okay. We are back to normal, right? If you recall, yeah, in the post-COVID, You know, the lead times were very long. We're now back to a normal lead time.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Got it. Thank you. Thank you very much. Next question is from Madeleine Jenkins. Please, go ahead.

speaker
Madeleine Jenkins
Analyst

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I just had one, another one on GAN. You mentioned utilization rates were improving. Do you have a kind of broad sense of where they are now? And then also on this data center opportunity, obviously, I know timing is uncertain, but sort of volume or demand-wise versus kind of the consumer business that made up GAN in the past, do you think it's a similar size or do you see it being bigger? Any color on that would be great. Thank you.

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Utilization rates, that's always very difficult to predict because we get more like a sign from our customers, qualitative signs like, We need new tools. We don't need new tools. I would guess across the market probably utilization rates are maybe 60% to 80%, I would say. So on a decent level now, I mean, earlier we were probably around 30% to 50% after the big down investment wave where the demand wasn't there yet. So I think it's still taking a little bit of time until the next investment wave is getting triggered. But as we said, somewhere around the 2017 timeframe, early in 2017, end of 2017, or maybe even end of this year, we will see some investment trigger. Now, as for the size, I think with GARN, it's important to note that GARN has been penetrating across all market segments. It started off, as you rightfully note, four or five years ago, purely in the consumer market, Chargers for smartphones, chargers for notebooks, and those kind of applications where the form factor was the driving topic. By now, we have seen GaN penetrate kind of across all the market segments, which is addressed by silicon, means motor drives for battery-driven applications. We've seen it in motor drives for things like air conditioners, more like high-power, high-voltage topics. We've seen it in 100-volt and 20-volt applications. point of loads and servers to reduce the energy consumption of servers, so kind of all market segments. So I think you cannot split GAN any longer into a consumer or non-consumer segment. I think GAN is really on a trajectory of getting a very widespread application.

speaker
Madeleine Jenkins
Analyst

Okay, makes sense. Thank you. And I know in your release you flagged that there's a decent chunk of of orders for 2027 delivery. Could you just kind of provide some more color on that? Why is it 2027? Is it just lead times, or is there kind of specific customer capacity additions going on?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

No, no. What we have said is we expect, as we see, the utilization rates of the installed base now gradually increasing. And as we see further adoption of GAN, particularly in the 800-volt architecture for AI, We expect that at some point, whether it's the end of 26 or sometime in 27 or at the end of 27, we don't know the exact timing. We expect at some point utilization rates to be at a level where it triggers new investments, new tool purchases by our customers, and where especially the 800-volt architecture is then switched to GAN. Today, a big part is still on silicon. And once that switch has happened away from silicon to the much more energy-efficient gun, then this will trigger, in our expectation, new tool orders by customers because they need to expand their capacities in order to serve this additional market segment. But when exactly this is happening, whether this is end of 26 or early 27 or end of 27, we explicitly say we don't know the timeframe.

speaker
Madeleine Jenkins
Analyst

Sorry, I was talking in a more kind of broad comment on your current backlog. I think over 100 million is for delivery in 27. I just wondered, you know, why that was the case.

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Well, this is a mix of applications. It's a mix of applications. There's a big part of silicon carbide where customers have ordered, and as the market fell down, it became slower. Customers said, can we have it a little later? Yeah, I think the biggest part, I would guess the number one application amongst those is silicon carbide.

speaker
Madeleine Jenkins
Analyst

That's very helpful. Thank you.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Thanks a lot. The next question is from Martin of BMP . Please, over to you.

speaker
Martin
Analyst, BMP Research

Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. First one is a bit of a follow-up on the guidance and the lead times. It looks like that you need around 300 million in new orders in the first half to make the 26 guidance. That's kind of the way, the right way to think about it with lead times of seven to ten months. And then maybe if you can comment if you're on track to meet this kind of 150 million order run rate in Q1 already. That's the first question. Yes.

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

We see ourselves fully on track. We sleep very well. We feel very well in covering and figuring that.

speaker
Martin
Analyst, BMP Research

Okay, great. And maybe another follow on the moving part. I think if I understood you correctly, you mentioned that you expect photonics revenues to double this year. So then what are the moving parts? I think you said also GAN should be up moderately. So is it like the 3D sensing part or the LED part that should be down massively this year then?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Sorry, I didn't get the last one. I didn't get the last part of your question.

speaker
Martin
Analyst, BMP Research

Yeah, I'm just asking. With photonics doubling, I think that's what you said this year, what are the moving parts within that revenue guidance? I think you said GAN should also be up moderately, so it's pretty sensing LED silicon carbide down quite massively. Is that the right way to think about it?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Yes, exactly. That's the right way to think about it. I would say LED slash micro LED roughly flat, silicon carbide massively down. Yeah, this is a big hole that's in there. And this whole to the largest part is getting filled up by the doubling of the optoelectronics, yeah. And that's why overall, and if you sum it up, we come at those slightly down numbers, yeah, from the whatever 557 we had in the past year and 25 and now to the 520 plus. Okay, great.

speaker
Martin
Analyst, BMP Research

And maybe if I can just a small follow-up on the gross margins then. Can you just break down the moving parts of it on the gross margin guidance for this year? What has kind of happened from lower revenues that you're seeing? What is the better product mix and so on? And maybe if you think about if we go back to $600 million revenue next year, what would be the gross margins on a like-for-like basis when you assume all the benefits on the restructuring program, et cetera? Should this be like 45% then?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

So great question, but I don't have all the numbers prepared. Sounds like almost I would need an Excel sheet next to me to answer your question. So on a joking note, no, let me try nevertheless to help you explain as much as I can without having a computer next to me. So you see we managed to keep the gross margins around stable compared to last year or improve even a little bit. And what you see here is already – We did a first slight amount of headcount reductions early in 25, so last year already. So, a part of that benefit already becomes effective in 26. We then, as you have seen, have been able to gain further efficiencies, and we do another slight headcount reduction now, or have done in January already. It's completed, yeah. We did it very early in the year. And the cost for that is, of course, included in the guidance, yeah. And we've been working a bit on our efficiency and operations, streamlining processes and operation shop floor work and all that kind of stuff, right? And all that allows us to keep the gross margin stable. Now, the question is, how should you think about it? Well, if you go into next year, into 27, again, I just do it on a like-for-like basis, yeah? I think you would do the Excel spreadsheet for your hypothetical 600 million, yeah? But you can then take out from the cost This, what we said, mid-single-digit million restructuring cost, that's, of course, a one-time cost, yeah, and that's one time in 26 and not again in 27, kind of, yeah. So that will help, yeah, on the gross margins. And honestly, I haven't done looked at the details of the product mix, which, of course, also plays a role. I haven't done that game. But it will certainly help on the margin side. Okay, great. Thanks, Nick. Thank you very much. Just to make sure, maybe one more comment just to make sure that you get that as you're now probably looking to get some numbers into your model. If you look at the R&D cost, we had in 24 an R&D cost on the order of 90 million, and we had in 25 an R&D cost on the order of 80 million. In the current year, 26, if you do your model, We'd rather put in, again, a 90 million of R&D cost, yeah? You will come to that if you do the math anyways with cost margin and the EBIT margins, yeah? Just to make sure that you get the right numbers, so everybody gets the right numbers, yeah? Because we have quite some new ideas for new products, yeah? And that always translates then for us into R&D, because at some point, 27, 28, we'd expect the markets to pick up, And, of course, our investors and you guys expect that we have then a fresh portfolio winning and securing our market position again. Now it's down, but when new markets are there, then it's a lot of fun. We want to be prepared, and we want to be ready for that.

speaker
Martin
Analyst, BMP Research

Yeah, thank you.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Thanks a lot. Next question is from Jared Abed of MWB Research. Please, over to you.

speaker
Christian Ludwig
Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, Ekstron

Doesn't seem to be there. Let's take the next question then, please, Anna.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Maybe it should work now, Mr. Abbott. Can you hear it?

speaker
Jared Abbott
Analyst, MWB Research

Well, can you hear me?

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Yeah, we can hear you now.

speaker
Jared Abbott
Analyst, MWB Research

Okay, sorry. Yeah, I just have a quick question regarding Q4 backlog movement. I mean, there is notably an order cancellation of approximately 11 million. Can you provide some color on this? Thank you.

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Yes, I think that was two process modules. I think it was a customer from Asia and if I recall.

speaker
Jared Abbott
Analyst, MWB Research

Okay. And my second question, I'm trying to understand the overcapacity in silicon carbide. Is it like structural or cyclical?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Cyclical. So we get from our customers literally the feedback that they say, look, gradually capacity is now starting to fill. I mean, we looked one year ago probably at 30% utilization, but the adoption of silicon carbide continues in the market. A big element that helps is that the prices for substrates have dropped significantly. And due to that, the overall substrates make the silicon carbide a major part of the overall cost. Probably the number one cost is substrate. Those are getting cheaper. With that, the silicon carbide power devices are getting more affordable. The cost is going down. And as cost is going down, silicon carbide MOSFETs gain a relative inattractiveness compared to silicon power devices, silicon IGBTs. And with a gaining attractiveness, that design is increasing. They're getting more widespread, and the demand in terms of units is increasing. And as the units are increasing, the existing capacity gradually gets filled. And at some point, again, we don't know the timing, but at some point, the overcapacity will be digested, and then new orders will be triggered. And again, we expect this sometime in the 27 and 28 timeframe. When exactly, we don't know.

speaker
Jared Abbott
Analyst, MWB Research

Okay, thank you. But you know that, like, I mean, you mentioned previously that you expect some orders once annual EV production with silicon carbide inverters surpass 3 million units. Is it still the case?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

I didn't get your question with the numbers that you were just saying. Sorry, I couldn't understand.

speaker
Jared Abbott
Analyst, MWB Research

Yeah, sure. You mentioned previously that you are expecting, like, silicon carbide acceleration once – annual EV production with silicon carbide inverters surpass 3 million units. Is it still the case?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

I think we've never given out a number of 3 million units for inverters. I think that's a very specific number, which is probably not from us.

speaker
Christian Ludwig
Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, Ekstron

I think it is referring to a broad assessment of how many cars we would need on the streets to see a pickup. That's where it came from. As a proxy. As a proxy, exactly. We cannot comment on that.

speaker
Jared Abbott
Analyst, MWB Research

Okay, thank you so much.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Thank you. Next question is from Craig McDowell of JP Morgan. Please, Mr. McDowell, over to you.

speaker
Craig McDowell
Analyst, JPMorgan

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. My first one is on pricing and certainly on the device side of Opto, we're sort of seeing obviously a tight market and it seems like device makers, laser device makers are able to take price and pretty significant price. I'm wondering whether that changes the value that you offer to your customers in the phosphide tool and whether you're able to see price increases and specifically whether that's included in your more than doubling comments for 2026.

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

The main driver for the doubling is literally on the number of tools. So, it's not a doubling by price. Yeah, that would be nice, yeah. It's literally doubling by the number of tools, by the number of . But historically, optoelectronic tools are on the higher side of the pricing in our portfolio, simply due to the fact that those laser tools are of a very high level of complexity. If you compare an LED tool going into China and you take a laser tool and you open them and look at them next to each other, you feel the one tool is filled with twice the number of technology inside than the other tool. And somehow that's, of course, reflected in the price.

speaker
Craig McDowell
Analyst, JPMorgan

But given the tightness in the end market, you're not yet raising the prices of your own tools, to be clear?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

No, we don't. That's never a good idea towards customers. They don't like that.

speaker
Craig McDowell
Analyst, JPMorgan

Understood. Okay. Perfectly. And then just on that, you mentioned that you're still in discussion with Opto customers, 3Q1. Some of those orders might have been written. Certainly discussions ongoing. Just wondering whether there's a change in tone with your Opto customers. Are you talking on a multi-year period now in terms of delivery? Or is it still very much sort of within the next six or 12 months that conversations are happening?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

It depends customer to customer. We have both types. We have some customers discussing kind of literally the next tool. I need something very, very fast. When can I have five tools? Please, as fast as possible. I have others that are more engaged in the structural discussing throughout the year 26, and then I have others more looking around the multi-year roadmap. It really depends by customer purchase team or strategic planning team. We have all of it.

speaker
Craig McDowell
Analyst, JPMorgan

Understood. Thank you very much.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jefferies Analyst
Analyst, Jefferies

Thanks for letting me on. I just had a question on your silicon carbide business. I guess when we look through the course of the year, is there anything that you see today that could happen that could mean that the guidance that you've given on SICK could prove to be conservative in the second half of this year?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Well, that's a very good question with lots and lots of ifs. Let me think. Honestly, I think for the second half of 26, my gut feeling tells me it would be a bit too early, seriously, for silicon carbide and talking about revenue, yeah, because I think there still is some capacity in the market, which still needs to be digested, as we had discussed earlier. I think if we look into 27, Purely the EV demand can be a nice driver, as discussed. We see now that silicon carbide devices more and more get designed into higher voltages, so not only 1 kV, 1,000 volt, 1 kilovolt, but also 2,000 volt, 3,000 volt, 10,000 volt, so 2, 3, and 10 kV. Notably in the space of grid applications for solid-state transformers and applications like that, But I think this would be too early to expect a tool demand, equipment demand for that in 26. I think we are clearly looking towards 27 and 28 for these new applications and new trends. That's my gut feeling. Maybe I'm wrong. If we can ship more, we are happy to serve the market. We have capacity, yeah. We can serve the market, no problem. But I think realistically, I'm giving you the most realistic estimate I would not expect an uptick in terms of revenues, maybe orders toward the end of the year, but I don't think there's a big uptick in shipments in 2026.

speaker
Jefferies Analyst
Analyst, Jefferies

Great, thank you. And then just to follow up in terms of your sort of the order momentum you're expecting in the first half of this year, when you sort of look at the discussions you've had year to date, how should we think about the mix in your order book? Is it sort of largely opto-based in H1 or could we see some GAN tool orders coming and inflecting in H1 potentially for shipping in the second half of this year? How should we think about that mix in the order book?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

I would expect if I look at ongoing customer discussions at this point in time, again, there can always be surprises, but I'm just extrapolating what kind of discussions are ongoing. And we know that the discussions take between, I don't know, one and three or four months to materialize, which kind of covers the H1 quite well. I would expect in H1 a significant optoelectronics slash LED loaded order intake. whereas then in the second half, I would expect the power electronics gradually to come back.

speaker
Jefferies Analyst
Analyst, Jefferies

Thanks. That's very helpful.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Thank you very much. Moving on to the next question from Michael Kuhn of Deutsche Bank. Please, over to you.

speaker
Michael Kuhn
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I'll stick with, let's say, order composition. of the roughly 260 order book you currently have. I think you gave some indications already, but could you maybe give us some deeper insight into how the composition is by category, power versus non-power, and maybe even going into a little more detail?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Yeah, I think if we look at the order backlog of 25, I think is around 40%, 630, GAN 20, and ED 10. Do you think so, Christian? Yep. That makes sense. Approximately. Approximately, right?

speaker
Michael Kuhn
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. Understood. Thank you. And then on GAN and let's say the next upward cycle, you mentioned at some point in the presentation that you expect AI data center power to drive the tool demand by sector three. What would be the comparison basis for that sector three just to get a better idea on how big the market could grow?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

I think we look here at a comparison of the total market size more like around 24, 25. And the factor of three which we've illustrated or like an upside scenario comparing 25 versus 2030, kind of a five-year comparison, one point in time 25 versus 2030. I think this is what we have looked at by the time.

speaker
Michael Kuhn
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay, so this is 30. This is nothing like four in two years' time, at least from today's point of view.

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

No, no, no, no. I think this is a gradual, gradual increase. As we have discussed in this call already, we believe at some point in 27, there could be the first momentum starting, and then it's a design in, and it's always in our applications, our markets. It's a ramp. It's a new trend, which is then happening. It's getting designed in, so our customers, our IDMs, has now made devices which is in the qualification with their customers, board makers, GPU makers, rack makers, and so on and so forth. The architecture has been set. Now the complete industry is working on it. Hopefully it's going to be fast. We know the AI industry is a very fast-moving industry, so maybe it's faster than some of the other industries. But then at some point, it's being designed in, and then the volume is starting, and then gradually over time, it gets penetrating, yeah, and the adoption rate goes from today 0%, then whatever, 10, 20% in the initial stage, and at some point, 2030, yeah, 100% adoption rate after the adoption is completed, and then we look at that point, and those numbers. So, a gradual adoption. Again, this is our assumption, yeah? You never know how the adoption goes. Sometimes things go very, very fast. It would be nice, yeah, but that's the assumption which is underlined.

speaker
Michael Kuhn
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

All right, understood. And then one more question. Obviously, we are not yet there, but let's say the cycle does well and you're ramping capacity big time. when would you reach let's say your current capacity towards 100% and when would you consider let's say reactivating your Italian capacity that is currently multiple and what would be the potential cost associated with that or is that not even a planning scenario as of now?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Honestly, it's not relevant for the overall business or profitability. I would say capacity can always be scaled up in one way or another. Which way we choose to take, we will decide when we are there. But I think it's nothing that affects the P&L in one way or another. It's not a constraint. It's not a limit to us. It's not a profitability limiter or inhibitor or whatever it is called. It's just operations.

speaker
Michael Kuhn
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Thank you very much.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Thank you very much also from my side. The next question is from Nigel Van Putten from Morgan Stanley. Please, over to you.

speaker
Nigel Van Putten
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi, good afternoon. Can you hear me? Yes, we can. Very well. Thank you. Perfect. I just wanted to follow up on some of the customer's behavior in the optoelectronics end market. I mean, some of them have said that they're currently ramping supply. They see demand ahead of supply maybe even towards next year. But do you feel that that comment is directed at you when you speak to customers? Do you have to disappoint them? Are you shipping to, let's say, 80%, 70% of demand? You've mentioned, as an example, a customer that comes in with a shipment for five tools as quickly as possible. Are you still able to serve those type of requests or do you have to sort of disappoint them and say, well, that's going to be quite a bit longer than maybe the six to 10 month lead time you've indicated before?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

In this case, good for our Optra Electronics customers. The silicon carbide customers are so nice to step to the side for them in this year, leaving a lot of unused capacity both in our shop floor and within our suppliers. And as you know, we work on a, how do you say, modular system with our planetary system. So all our products are closely related to each other as a family, you can say, that is now a capacity that is now being emptied or not used by silicon carbide customers because that market is currently sleeping. We can use the same supply chain for parts and, of course, also the same kind of assembly tools on our own shop floor and the skill set of our people now to do the laser parts. In other words, we have free capacity to literally serve all these demands which is currently coming in, right? It might be a different game if the silicon carbide would be at the same time in the party now, but silicon carbide, as we have illustrated, is really leaving a big gap, and this gap is currently just not being taken by the laser guys. It's good for them.

speaker
Nigel Van Putten
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I got it. So when they say we can't ship to the ground, it kind of reflects your lead times, you think, or especially when one customer says it's very good?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

It should not be us who is the bottleneck. It should not be us. Yes, it should not be us who's the bottleneck. And my team, my operational team, my sales team is handling it. I expect if there would have been a bottleneck, I would know it. I'm not aware of any bottleneck across the entire industry.

speaker
Nigel Van Putten
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Perfect. That was my question. But then maybe a broader question. You said larger wafer size and better yield. I think one customer said it's six inches is four times the product of the three-inch, which, yeah, their current capacity. So maybe ballpark to give us an idea in terms of the capacity you're shipping this year relative to the install base. What do you think the increases you can serve with sort of your view on the revenue you are shipping into 26?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Oh, that's a very, very difficult question. I can only illustrate to you the various factors to that. Because the installed base is, first of all, many, many tools, but many of them still on three-inch and four-inch wafer size, as you said, which is a much, much smaller capacity in terms of square centimeters or number of chips that you can get out of it in other ways. The other point is that while the installed base counts many, many tools, In the installed base, many times those old tools, they would be dedicated to one product, and they would only be qualified for certain products, so with huge inefficiencies, yeah. So, I think we are currently allowing this shift in new architecture towards photonic integrated circuits. So, the PICS, yeah, on indium phosphide, also much bigger chips, much more functionality, is really, it's a world which is not comparable to the old world, I would say, yeah. because it's different chips, different products, much larger weight of size, much higher productivity. So I think the industry is really seeing a massive momentum. But on the other hand, as illustrated, inside of the data centers, even inside of the racks, we go completely away from electric cables and go completely to optical data connects, which inside of the racks is really new to the industry. So the demand is massively increasing.

speaker
Nigel Van Putten
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yes, understood. Yeah, thank you very much.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Great. The next question is from Aditya Mitukul from HSBC. Please, over to you. Hello, can you hear us?

speaker
Aditya Mitikul
Analyst, HSBC

Can you hear me? Hello?

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Yes.

speaker
Michael Kuhn
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Hi.

speaker
Aditya Mitikul
Analyst, HSBC

Thank you. Thank you for taking my questions. Firstly, just thinking about the capacity that's coming on board for indium phosphide lasers. From what I understand, the yields are something like 50%, and that the continuous wave lasers used in CPOs are about a tenth of the die size of EML lasers. So I just wanted to hear your thoughts on how you think about the especially if the die sizes go down. That combined with the die sizes going down, you know, with the existing capacity that's in place, or you will have put in place by the end of 2026. I suppose the question is, it's been asked, but how much does the capacity go up? And will there be enough demand to drive further growth in your optoelectronics business in 2027 if yields go up, die sizes go down 10X because of continuous wave laser adoption. So, any thoughts around that would be great, and I've got a follow-up.

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

I think you asked a billion-dollar question, but I don't have the answer for you, unfortunately. I think the effect you're alluding to is a typical pattern across the whole semiconductor industry, that in a new market segment, you start with a relatively low yield, simply because the application is there, the application needs the capacity, the application needs a ramp, yeah. But then over time, new generations of products step by step come in, which come with a data shrink and higher yield, yeah, means you get more capacity out of your installed base. Typically, such a process, so I cannot upfront, I cannot quantify this for you, yeah. This is, I don't know. I think also our customers at this point in time don't know. Typically, this process that you're describing is happening over a two and a half, three, three and a half, three, four year time horizon, yeah? Because it takes one generation of chips and after the next generation and the next generation, yeah? Typically, at least you need one and a half to two years for one generation after the next, yeah? Because your customers are simply not able to digest a faster succession of generations and also to increase the yield takes some time. What it means is, my personal guess, and again, it's only a speculation, but I can share the opinion I have with you, is that this is not only a 2026 trend, but at least this trend, this market will extend into 2027. That I think is very, very clear. This does not happen within one year. Now, to which extent and how large this will extend in 2027 and 2028, I think that's the billion-dollar question I cannot quantify for you. But I am very convinced that we are not talking about one year, but at least about two, and I would guess rather a three to four-year time horizon.

speaker
Aditya Mitikul
Analyst, HSBC

Got it. So essentially you are expecting growth in 27, but you don't know the magnitude of the growth at this stage. Would that be a fair way to characterize it?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

That's a fair way, yes, exactly. That's a fair way.

speaker
Aditya Mitikul
Analyst, HSBC

And then just following up on an earlier question, you talked about the epitaxy machines not being the bottleneck. To my understanding, it's the indium phosphide substrate. Is that right, or is there some other bottleneck in the system that's preventing your later customers from ramping capacity and meeting the demand that they're seeing?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

I hear also that indium phosphide substrate is a bottleneck that's currently being addressed by the entire value chain. I know this both from the side of our customers who need the substrate in their factories, and I know it also from substrate manufacturers, and I'm aware that there is a large, very well-coordinated, well-orchestrated initiative by our customers and by the substrate makers together in place to address these bottlenecks. But, yes, that's, I think, a topic which is currently being worked on in this value chain and in this industry.

speaker
Aditya Mitikul
Analyst, HSBC

Understood. And then maybe just one last clarification. Are you able to give any color on the divisional growth revenue expectations for the first quarter?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Honestly, I don't have the numbers.

speaker
Aditya Mitikul
Analyst, HSBC

Otherwise, thank you.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Perfect. Thanks. Thank you very much. And last question for today from Marta Shulman from Barbrook Research. Please go ahead. Mr. Shulman, can you hear us?

speaker
Marta Shulman
Analyst, Barbrook Research

Can you hear me? Yes, we can hear you. Hello. Okay. Good. First one is on silicon-carbide superjunction technology. So, can you maybe share your view on how the timeline until adoption might look like? And then associated to that, would your tools in the existing base require an upgrade to incorporate that?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

A very good question. So, we are aware that all the leading device makers are currently working on superjunction technologies. To my understanding, the first devices will be launched at the end of 26 by suppliers, means in the second half of 26 or the first half of 27 volume ramps of devices happening in the market. And we think that super junction technologies in silicon carbide will be strongly embraced by Western players. because it's a major way for them to get more dyes per wafer, and hence to reduce the cost per chip. So it's a massive trend which is currently being strongly pushed across the entire industry. For our tools, there's no further upgrade needed for our tools. They're able to run as is. One point I would like to illustrate, nevertheless, is, that the super junction technology where essentially you don't take one thick layer, let's say 10, 12, 14 microns of thickness, but you rather split this into three or four thinner layers, and the wafer gets put into the tools multiple times. Most customers embrace a technology which is called multi-EP, multi-implant. So you do an epi-step, you do an implant, you do another epi-step, another implant. So, the wafer gets several times into our tool, a little bit like what we saw in the indium phosphide just in the earlier in the discussion. And that means that for one wafer of super junction devices, you need more epi time. You need more tool time in the epi, and we expect that this will be also one driver at some point as illustrated in the 27, 28, 29 cycle. which will trigger additional demand from our customers for more tools because they need to expand their EPI capacity in order to accommodate all these super junction lawsuits. So it's a market trend that we like a lot because it helps our business.

speaker
Marta Shulman
Analyst, Barbrook Research

Okay, understood. Secondly, on working capital, with the shift in the product mix, away from power to up to this year. Can you keep your inventory target? I think it was around 200 million by the end of 26. And then secondly, with respect to the down payments, we have seen quite a significant decline over the past few years relative down payments relative to order intake. So what are your thoughts where these levels should normalize going forward?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

Yeah, good question. So, inventories, yes, we expect inventories to go further down. The shift in product mix, in fact, is a fact which is not helping. So, we are still, but we are still targeting 200 to 220 in terms of inventories. So, maybe there's 24 than we initially expected, yeah, due to the shift of product mix. Let's see. But still, we target a significant further reduction of inventory. Yeah, it's gradually burning down, maybe a little bit slower, as you're indicating, but still significant, yeah. Christian, maybe you can take the second part. On the down payment, it's a little bit more difficult because we don't have complete control on it. It really depends on end market mix, regional mix, customer mix, and also cut-off date effects. I mean, the number at the end of the year was really low. We expected to recover to some degree, but to predict this in detail is quite difficult. And it's also not the major negotiation point with customers, right? It's part of the deal, but not the major part. So it's a little bit difficult to predict. Should increase trend once again.

speaker
Marta Shulman
Analyst, Barbrook Research

Okay. Okay. Lastly, quick one on R&D. You indicated an increase in R&D spending this year. Would you expect another increase with the rising business volume generally over the next years in 27, or would that volume be more or less sufficient to support your programs you have in mind?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

I think we discussed already earlier. So in 24, we had around 90 million. In 25, we had around 80 million. For 26, we expect, again, around 90 million.

speaker
Marta Shulman
Analyst, Barbrook Research

And then beyond 26, so the 90 is sufficient for the next?

speaker
Dr. Felix Kravart
Chief Executive Officer, Ekstron

That always depends a little bit on individual cycles of products, yeah. At some point, the cycle, the products take a little more money, and at some point in the cycle, they take a little less. Yeah, it depends, you know, throughout where the portfolio stands. Honestly, I wouldn't want to predict beyond that.

speaker
Marta Shulman
Analyst, Barbrook Research

Okay, fair enough. Thanks.

speaker
Anna
Conference Call Operator

Thank you very much also from my side. With that, there are no more questions in the queue, so I'm closing the curing day session and handing the floor back over to the host.

speaker
Christian Ludwig
Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, Ekstron

Well, thank you very much. Thank you all for your questions. The IR team and part of the management team will be on the road in the next couple of weeks, so we'll see a lot of you hopefully in person. And for those we do not see, we will have our next quarterly call scheduled for April the 30th when we will report our Q1 figures. So if we don't see you until then, then have a happy Easter and talk to you end of April. Goodbye and thank you. Bye-bye.

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