Alstom Unsp/Adr

and last opportunity for me to wish you a happy new year. Welcome to Alstom's webcast dedicated to the third quarter of the fiscal year 23-24. I'll start by sharing the key highlights for the period's orders and sales before giving an update on the company action plan presented in November. Starting with the order intake, slide 3. Order intakes totaled 5.5 billion euros in Q3, and now 13.9 billion year-to-date. Commercial momentum in Q3 was good, particularly in Europe, Australia, and in the Middle East. Services and systems continued to deliver a strong book-to-bill. We also saw a good performance of small orders with order intakes above €2 billion in the quarter, which is good for profit and cash. Small orders represent 17% of order in Tokyo to date, above last year mix. Backlog remains stable at 90 billion euros with positive book-to-bill offset by negative FX trends. My second comment is that overall we are very satisfied with the quality of this order intake. The margin on orders continues to largely exceed the margin traded in the P&L. and it is fully consistent with mid-term objectives, both in terms of margin and cash. As a result, margin in backlog is improving, supporting our trajectory of profitable growth. It has improved again in Q3. Looking ahead, we expect this positive momentum to continue in Q4 and in the next quarters. in particular on service and systems. A number of deals have been announced but are not yet booked, like Alula tram system in Saudi Arabia, or a monorail in the Dominican Republic, and we have a good flow of small orders. On slide four, a few contracts reflecting the commercial successes of this third quarter. two major service orders in the UK and Australia for nearly 1 billion euros each, demonstrating the strength of our fleet maintenance franchise. The financial closer of the Tel Aviv Green Line tramway system project should be noted in the context of the region, and a landmark signaling project in France, complex and critical for public transportation in Paris. Turning to sales, organic growth was sustained at 4.6% in Q3 and 7.3% over nine months. Strong performance of service, system, and signaling product lines, all delivering close or above double-digit organic growth over the nine months, and continued ramp-up in rolling stock with organic growth above 5% over the nine months. Forex and Scope continue to weigh negatively on sales profile, mainly due to the strength of the Euro against the USD and other USD-pegged currencies. We also confirm the target of around 1.7 billion Euro of sales at zero gross margin for the full year 2023-2024. As you know, leveraging is our number one priority, and the teams are fully mobilized to deliver on our operational and commercial agenda on cost efficiencies and inorganic measures. First, some update on operational and commercial actions. On the operational front, we continue to ramp up production with 3,415 cars produced over nine months, against less than 3,000 over the same period last fiscal year. On inventory management, we have taken actions to improve inventory turns in days of sales. We expect inventory days to show some improvement during the second half of this fiscal year. December figures on the raw material are very encouraging. We have now implemented rolling forecasts systemically across the business. This process includes a monthly monitoring of contract assets, which allows us to take rapid actions and helps improve visibility and predictability of cash generation. Second, on cost efficiencies. As you see in the slide, process is now well engaged with implementation, mostly expected during next fiscal year, and we confirm the 1% of sales target sales. in terms of savings. Third, the roadmap towards strengthening balance sheets by 2 billion euros from inorganic measures is also confirmed. Since November, we've made significant progress and we are committed to giving the precise magnitude of each inorganic transaction in May. Regarding the progress made to date, On disposals, the target is to raise 500 million to 1 billion. We are working on more than a handful of assets that have a combined potential of proceeds in excess of the top end of the target range of 1 billion euros. For obvious reasons, we do not comment on ongoing processes and transactions. We want to make sure that we strike the right balance between the impact on the overall group strategy and the impact on leverage ratios. Regarding private capital and hybrid solutions, we are considering various options. We deem viable from a strategic and financial standpoint, and we will also contribute towards decreasing the leverage ratios. Finally, as expressed on November the 15th, the need for capital increase is contingent on the progress and the expected proceeds from both disposals and equity-like transactions to meet the 2 billion euro objective. Again, we will be making a decision no later than full year results in May. On slide 7, let me give you a few updates on the two projects we highlighted in November. Amtrak, first, as you remember, the train homologation in the U.S. is the next key milestone. We've made meaningful progress with the numerical model of train behavior on U.S. tracks. This has been now accepted by our customer Amtrak and is being reviewed by the regulator, FRA. Tests have resumed in January as planned. Production is ongoing. and payments are progressing. On Aventra, production is progressing since September. 97% of cars have now been produced, and we expect full completion in the fourth quarter. Acceptances have significantly improved at 82% of the program, and payments are continuing with further progress expected during Q4, and an 89% payment ratio for the full program year to date. As we announced previously, we expect the rest of cash in during the next fiscal year. Let me also tell you that we have constructive talks with the UK government regarding Derby manufacturing capabilities. Decisions regarding the short-term future of Derby will be announced in all probability during the fourth quarter of this fiscal year. So, To conclude, let me summarize the guidance for fiscal year 23-24. The market remains sound, and it's all on us to be disciplined in our tendering policy. We prioritize quality orders in terms of margin, risk, and cash profiles. On the back of a good Q3 and of a good flow of deals already awarded, we are happy to confirm a book-to-bill ratio above 1 for the full year. Regarding sales, following a strong nine-month performance, we also confirm that organic growth will exceed 5% for the full year. We reiterate our adjusted debit margin guidance of around 6% for the full year. And regarding free cash flow, we confirm the range of €500 million to €750 million negative for the full year and therefore expect solid cash generation in the second half of this year. New financial process and improved operations provide comfort on this guidance. We also confirm our mid-term targets and we are working to generate a sustainable cash performance. Thanks a lot for listening. We will now take your questions.

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question or make a contribution on today's call, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. That is star one for your questions. And our first question today comes from Delphine Brock from Oddo. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have two. First, you said December figures in raw material inventories are encouraging. Can you provide some details And second, in your press release, when you mentioned the capital increase, you said that you are studying the feasibility. What do you mean exactly by feasibility? Thank you.

Thank you, Delphine. I mentioned encouraging results for raw material inventory as it went down in December against November, so I think we have kind of broken the trend, which is obviously good. I will not make any specific comment for the full year guidance, but what I've seen in December first show that we are looking at everything every month, and it goes in the right direction. No more to say on this front. We are indeed, for your second question, looking at the feasibility because we are looking at all options for a capital increase. So it means that we are doing our job, I would say, that is to look at all options. It doesn't tell much more than what it states for, I mean, feasibility. Next one, please. Thank you.

And we're moving on to Martin Whitby from Citi. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning. It's Martin from Citi. The question I had was on the free cash outlook. You also reiterated the guidance, which is also encouraging. In the quarter, you had lots of orders that were not growing stocks, presumably fewer prepayments despite the strength in orders. Reiterating the guidance, is that because you expect more rolling stock in the final quarter and that supports the guidance? Or would you say that some of these other actions on the working capital and so forth has been enough to offset perhaps some fewer prepayments? Just to understand some of the building blocks behind the reiterated cash guidance. Thank you.

Thank you for this question. I say that we simply reiterate what I said during the November call. It's that first what I call funds from operations, so EBITDA-less investment will be positive, and it's moving in the right direction too. And as you say, down payment for rolling stock in Q3, considering the magnitude of the book-to-bill was not very strong, but we expect a pickup in the fourth quarter. So this is what are the underlying drivers of free cash flow for the end of the year. I understand that you probably would like us to narrow the range of the guidance for free cash flow. Personally, I think that keeping the same guidance and avoiding... Changing it every quarter is definitely what we want to do. And having issued the guidance at the beginning of October, I would say in the middle of a very difficult situation and sticking to it is, I think, is good. And as I said in my conclusion, we are comfortable with the guidance and it tells a lot on what we are doing and achieving today.

Thank you. That's helpful. And one other question, just in terms of you're obviously going to update it in May around the inorganic cash raise. Does that mean that if you are to choose to go ahead with an equity raise, do it happen shortly after that? Or are there other milestones that could mean it comes later in the year? Just to get some sort of sense, if there is a raise, is it shortly after May or much later in the year?

You mean, should we announce anything between now and May if something happens? Is that the sense of your question?

It would be more when the actual raise would happen. So would the raise happen shortly after the announcement in May as well? Or are there other milestones, whether it's a shareholder approval or things like that, that might mean it could happen later in the year?

Well, I think we will operate as for any kind of M&A transactions. So, announcement when signing and then closing, but it will come later. So, we think that we will take our decision on the full $2 billion package once we have more clarity. And when I mean clarity, it means signing on both fronts in terms of disposals and other financial transactions.

Okay, thank you very much.

Thank you. Thank you. And we're taking a question from Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning, Bernard. I have two questions as well. The first one, wondering if you have an update on the cost, the cash cost, particularly associated with the SG&A measures and when should we expect them to come in? And then the second question, I think last quarter you talked about some more hesitation on some of the customers to closing final deals. Now you seem quite confident on the free cash flow for the second half, despite the slightly weaker rolling stock in Q3. Is it sort of brought by a change in environment in terms of how you see the customers thinking now, or do we still have some of those worries regarding industry delays? Thank you.

Okay, thank you, Daniela. On the first question, the restructuring will depend on the geographies where we will have to reduce the number of positions. So we are moving, and I hope that we can be in a position to make changes. some provisions by the end of this year. The magnitude of it depends, again, in terms of number of positions, geographies by geographies, because social process is not the same everywhere. What I would like to reiterate here, that is definitely in terms of magnitude of savings rather than magnitude of job cuts that we should look at it and really look at that. And frankly, if I can avoid cost of restructuring, I will push for that as much as possible. So not full visibility, I confess, today, but it's really moving in the right direction. On your second question, could you please say it again, Daniela?

Sure. I think sort of in the last quarter you mentioned that there were some deals that were taking longer time to close, that the customers were a little bit more hesitant. And you had a slightly weaker mix than consensus expected on rolling stock, which I guess means less advances in Q3, but you reiterate the guidance for Q4. So has the situation changed in terms of the industry appetite in closing these deals?

It has not really changed. We've seen some large tenders being postponed. That's true. But on the other hand, we have some specific deals that we are... working on and almost done that gives us some comfort on Q4 down payments. So I would say the landscape has not changed, but our visibility, predictability has improved.

I understand. Thank you very much.

Thank you. And up next now, we have Alistair Leslie from Societe Generale. Please go ahead.

Thank you. So a couple of questions, especially just on Aventra, thanks for the additional detail, but I suppose it remains quite a tight timeline from now to the first half of FY24-25 when you expect this to be finalised. There obviously does seem to be a number of challenges still there you list. It seems largely unchanged compared with So I was just wondering, can you put those improvements in acceptance into more context in terms of how this is developing relative to your prior expectations? Is it faster, slower relative to three or four months ago? And whether there's been underlying progress, I suppose, on some of those challenges in terms of customer negotiations and their ability to take the trains as well. So that was kind of the first question. The second one is just on the use of equity-linked instruments. You know, I understand that was kind of predicated on how it affected the rating. Can you share with us any kind of feedback you may have had from nudies on those arrangements so far? And has it kind of widened or narrowed the scope of what you think is maybe possible from that side? Thank you.

Okay, Alasdair. I can only repeat myself in looking at the details we provided with on slide seven. Acceptance has improved. Payments have improved. End protection. is almost done. And now all fleet is in commercial service, which is good for the final acceptance. So I don't see a different situation as the one that we expected when we discussed in November. Lot of discussions, including with the UK government, with operators, and with owners, on the contracts that are not 100% ended. Not that different. I mean, we expect the program to end in terms of cash-in at the beginning of next fiscal year. and we still have some commercial negotiations going on, and for obvious reasons I cannot give you more details on that. But Aventra is still a big thing for us, and I would say also a moving part in our financial results. Equity link, I will not speak on behalf of Moody's. By the way, we have not really started detailed discussion with Moody's because we want to meet them once we have a potential deal with an investor. We are... We are moving at the right pace when it comes to scoping, modeling, and structuring transactions. We are, let's say, in a process that is very much like an M&A process, you know, building a data home, working with lawyers on the structuring, and having discussions with different people. kind of potential investors. It takes quite a big amount of work to do this. This is not an easy one, but it's moving in the right direction. And what I try to do is to have different options, not to be in a kind of hit or miss situation. situation, depending on decisions from an investor and from Moody's. So we are trying to have some optionality here. And again, this is something where we'll have full visibility in May. Great. Thank you.

Thanks, Pascal.

Thank you. And now from Barclays, we have Vlad Sergideski with our next question. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my two questions. I'll ask them one by one. First, the majority of orders came from service contract extensions. Are those coming with any new prepayments or any incremental revenue streams? What I'm trying to understand is if there is any P&L or cash flow impact from those sizable order intakes.

I try to understand your question. If it comes to service, we have no down payments on services. And most of the time, we don't have any P&L impact right now unless we have some potential kind of back trading if it relates to potential continuation of a contract. But here we are talking of new contracts. So it doesn't weigh on our economics. It's good for the backlog. It's good for the margin in the backlog. It gives visibility, but no short-term impact.

Understood. That's very helpful. Thank you. Could I also ask if you would like to provide any potential directional comments on cash generation and maybe debt position last quarter? Maybe give us some idea how the growth debt has changed. in this Q3, and whether you are utilizing any revolving credit facilities, including the 2 billion ones you recently signed up, or all of them remain undrawn, any color here would be greatly appreciated.

But unfortunately, it says under the call, so we do not give details on cash generation, P&L, and balance sheet in the quarter. Relying on public information, outstanding CP, you see that that moved since September. It's very stable. That's all I can tell you.

Anderson, thank you so much.

You're welcome. Thank you. And our next question comes from Andre Cooney of UBS. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I'll go one at a time as well. Can I just start with a clarification on the timeline question? Am I right to think that you will decide on whether to do an equity raise or not by 8th of May as the latest? And then whenever you decide to go for it, then as you described, there will be a normal process of getting shareholder approval and going ahead with it. And therefore, the latest will be 8th of May for potential announcement and then the usual process timeline after that.

Yes, it seems reasonable to me. It's exactly how it will happen.

Okay, but it can come before 8th of May.

No, I don't think it will. It shouldn't come before. Maybe it depends on where we will land for the different two other buckets, I mean, transactions and financial transactions, I mean, equity-like or hybrid. But the central scenario is to have a decision by fiscal year-end.

Thank you very much. And if I may, just a second question, though. a bit broader in terms of your audit backlog kind of maturity and kind of the resultant cash profile implications from that. I think you picked up that you provided some details on that in some meetings and versus kind of the usual steady state average maturity of about 50%. I think you suggested you're at quite an earlier stage And that's why you're going through this period of excessive cash consumption into working capital. Could you share those details with us? I think I heard a number of like 38%. And I just wanted to understand, as we move from that kind of less mature state right now into what should be steady state at around 50%, what are the timelines for that movement? Will that come with further cash consumption, or are we now already at that kind of pace of cash minutes, working capital, and from here as you move towards 50, it releases cash? I just want to understand that a bit better.

I'm a bit lost between your comments and your question. I don't know exactly what the question is. I suggest we wait for the full year result where we'll have a quite comprehensive disclosure in terms of backlog, maturity, margin in the backlog, and how we make progress to discuss that in details. Okay, Andrei?

Yeah, of course. Maybe if I could have a chance to simplify it, I guess the simple question is that from your current backlog perspective, maturity, whatever it is, as you move towards more normal, does that then incur further cash consumption or is that what you've already had in the first half of fiscal 24?

If I get you well, it's a question of where we are in the maturity of the backlog and how it translates in the cash profile. So the only thing I could maybe say here, that our rolling stock backlog has an average percentage of completion of 40%. So in a way, we are right in the middle of a cycle of where we have already cashed in the down payments. We have not yet cashed in the the cash in terms of deliveries mostly it will come later we are at the stage where we are ending but again it's on average the development phase and starting the manufacturing so in a way that's my perception we are in the uh in the uh bottom end of the cash curve, so for rolling stock programs. But again, it's on average and devil is in the details, so you have to look at it contract by contract, project by project. But looking at the average, 40% percentage of completion is not the best place to be in terms of cashing. I think it will improve. That's why looking at the midterm, I think that contract working will improve, but still something we are working on, in a way.

Is that okay as an answer? Yeah, that's really helpful. Thank you very much. I appreciate your time.

Thank you. And we're moving on now to James Moore of Redburn Atlantic. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone. Good morning, Bernard. I've got some questions. Thanks for the time. Maybe I'll start one by one. I wondered if we could go back to your inorganic plan. And would it be possible to perhaps go a little further in terms of the total value and the number of situations sitting on the table? I know you said over a billion, but is it just over that or materially over that? And are we talking about three or four situations or eight to ten situations, any incremental color on this very important metric would be welcome.

I take your point, James. But unfortunately, I will stick to the range in terms of expected proceeds, 500 minimum, $1 billion, I wouldn't say maximum, but just to give you a sense of what kind of figure we are expecting. Definitely 500 to 1 billion is the right way to look at it. But as you said, we are working on a potential. above one. And we know that some transactions will not go through for execution or price reasons. That's why we are more working on the potential above what we expect. And again, not only one or two, but more than that. That's the only thing, James, I can tell you.

That's very helpful. Thanks. And just one other qualification on your language. You've been mentioning hybrid a bit today. Is that a convertible bond option that would be different, for example, to, say, an Air France Apollo-style transaction? So I guess on equity-like, do we have a range of possible structures, and is a convertible bond an option in that bucket of structures?

Yes, it is an option that we are looking at. We know that the equity content of such solutions is only maximum 50%. That's why it's not the priority. But I would qualify that as a plan B for the second bucket. because this is not as bespoke as a private capital solution. So, yes, I see that as also one of the instruments that we have in our toolbox to fill in this bucket of deleveraging. Yes.

That's helpful. And just lastly, if I could, on profitability, I think you've talked about sort of three levers to move the margin of the company forward in the medium term. So the backlog stratification, which to me seems more straightforward, and the S&A 100 basis points, 1500 headcount piece. You do talk at times about efficiency, which I guess is a combination of ramping up in rolling stock, as we go towards 5,500 cars, but at the same time downsizing in some other facilities, potentially UK, Germany, which is quite a complicated dance. Do you feel you have line of sight towards the 8%? And do you see that sort of third piece of the jigsaw as the more challenging bit that has to be navigated? And can you give any color on your confidence on that piece of the efficiency story?

I mean, you get it right. I mean, please join us because you're very good at explaining what are the drivers of our profitability. That's exactly it. Backlog improvement, SG&A, and I would add R&D. what comes beyond the gross margin. And when it comes to gross margin and the gap with contractual margins, it's absolutely what you said. The gap has to narrow because of more volumes. That's what's happening today. And more efficiency, so less what we call under-recovery. And it has to do with the program of restructuring. As you know, we have a first tape. We have already taken 150 million of restructuring in Germany. And I think that we need to do more. That's exactly what we are doing, what we are suggesting. studying as a next step of our industrial adaptation plan. And I'm not in a position to tell you more today, but it's on the cards. Absolutely.

Thank you very much.

Good day. Thank you. And for now, moving on to a question from Akash Gupta of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Yes, hi. Good morning, Bernard, and good morning, everybody. I have just one left. and that is on this 2 billion deleveraging plan. It's been a few months since you gave this number, and I see today you are reflating the 2 billion figure. The question I have is that how do you or what level of confidence do you have in 2 billion number based on the things in the market, whether it's demand or whether it's your dialogue with customers? Do you think that there is a scenario where you can end up with less than $2 billion to get to your FY26 objectives, also given some proceeds coming from TMH? And same way, is there also a risk that the ultimate need could be a little bit more than $2 billion? So anything on that, on this $2 billion level of conviction to get your FY26 target would be helpful. Thank you.

Okay. Thank you, Akash. First, thank you for raising the point on TMH. We've done it. I think that was a good execution and not an easy one, 75 million. That's not taken into account in the 2 billion, and I'm not changing the number. I mean, 2 billion is really what we want to achieve. And in a way or another, we will adapt the three different buckets in order to achieve this number. And I'm confident, I would say by definition now, on our ability to reach the 2 billion. So nothing new here. What I can see, and I think this is something we said during our world shows end of November the beginning of December, we see a lot of appetite for some of the assets. we're working on in terms of disposals. We are advancing, progressing well on the financial instruments, even if it's a complex one. As I said to answering to Jim's question, having hybrid bonds in our toolkit gives kind of fallback for the size of this second bucket. And we are looking at those points from all angles, what impacts on the proceeds, but on the leverage, net leverage, too, what impact on the long-term strategy. This is why it takes time. And, you know, those process... It cannot be done overnight, and even over two months since we announced it. It takes time, and as we said, we have ample liquidity to manage this period, so we need to find the right pace between... going fast because we think we have to now swiftly execute the plan, but taking the time to choose the right transactions in terms of cost and impact on our midterm targets. But we remain fully committed to the $2 billion. No question. We will not change the target.

Thank you. Thank you. And from Deutsche Bank, we have Gail Debray with our next question. Please go ahead.

Thanks very much. Bonjour, Bernard. Good morning, everyone. I have three questions, please. The first one is really a follow-up on Akash's question. I mean, can you perhaps remind me why the €2 billion is such a magical number? I mean, why not trying to fully get rid of the €3 billion? of net debt you have on the balance sheet in order to put the, you know, definitely put behind balance sheet problems once and for all. So that's question number one. Then question number two is on the organic revenue development this quarter. How do you explain the sequential deceleration from 10% in Q2 to 4.6% in Q3? And lastly, thanks very much for the update on Amtrak. Perhaps you provide a similar picture for the high-speed train contract in France, you know, the TGVN. Thanks very much.

Okay, I got it. On the 2 billion, it's not a magic number, but I remind you the chart that we showed in November shows saying that I think that we will not only deliver thanks to specific transactions, but also thanks to cash generation coming from a kind of EBITDA generation. So from that point of view, it's a balanced plan between what we qualify as inorganic and what should come from organic deleveraging. We have to do, I would say, our homework too. That's a balanced plan, and I think from that point of view, it's well designed. So no magic trick here. It's just having a balanced plan. The deceleration is just because comps are tough in Q3. And that's why it came down in terms of... organic growth, especially for falling stock. So it's a question of base, I would say. And TGVM, no real update here. We will have to discuss it later on with fuller results. The situation seems to me as smooth, so nothing specific to discuss.

Okay. Thanks very much.

Thank you. And our next question comes from William Mackey of Kepler. Please go ahead.

Yeah, very good morning to Bernard and everyone. Three questions, please. Firstly, relating to the divestment plans, encouraging you note a handful of assets with good interest. Could you throw a bit more colour, please, on where you are in the processes with regard to gathering all the potential buyer interest, receiving indications of interest, and at what point you might hope to make some initial firm announcements, even if it's a wide window.

The window is between now and May. and I will not refine this because I don't want to put pressure on the team in charge of negotiating, structuring, and striking a deal, so it's between now and May. Sorry for that.

Thank you. The second relates to the cash program. You've changed some of your budgeting processes to look forward, and I think you launched a series of specific incentives for some of your leadership team to drive a greater focus on cash. How is that developing? Are there any signs you can share about impacts on the organization and people and behavior at this stage?

I don't see a specific impact on the behavior of the teams. When we change our short-term incentive scheme, it's just to express the fact that We are aligned with shareholders in terms of cash generation. I mean, it could be very detrimental to our own leadership team if we don't make the guidance, right? That's the objective of what we've done. And I think, in a way, it works because people are really working very hard. They have always been working very hard, but I can see some... very strong mobilization here to make the numbers. But the team, I mean, people in Alstom have always been very motivated. And it's just a way of working that is slightly changing in order to monitor the situation month by month by having teams traveling from one region to another region to be sure that we align what comes from the financial process and what comes from the operations. So, again, alignment of leadership team with shareholders and motivation of the whole Alstom company, but no change in terms of organization or behavior.

Super. Thank you. The last question relates to your joint ventures and associates within China. Would you share some thoughts on your optionality or flexibility to release capital from the assets that you own within China?

No, I will not share anything. First, one thing only. It's not one situation. We are talking of different situations with different partners. JVs that are in a different situation from an operational point of view. And if there is a message that we have a strong partnership with different Chinese industrial companies, large ones, and we like it, I think it is a very strong asset. for Alstom, and that's all. I mean, I cannot provide you with more details. Again, we are talking of specific discussions, and I will not give you more details.

Thank you very much.

Thank you. And our last question for today comes from Jonathan Mountie of B&B Paribas Exams. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for being here.

We cannot hear you. Maybe in the metro or a regional train. No, we can't hear you. Jonathan? We can't hear you.

Is that any better?

Slightly.

Yes, okay. Just HS2, I remember in October when you had to warn... At that point, it was very much in flux. The news flow in the UK was poor, and it seems you were not entirely sure how that might fall. Do we have more clarity on the order you've already booked? That is going to be the same as was booked? There will be no change in scope? And then the second question, please, related to Akesh's question, the 2 billion balance sheet figure. I just want to understand, does that figure not move depending on how much EBITDA you have to sell? I mean, how is it fixed without knowing how much you have to sell? And then secondly, also, obviously, it must be linked to future operational performance improvements. Is the $2 billion based on the assumption that you hit your margin target, so that is necessary? You hit your free cash flow targets over time, so that is necessary. Would you need more than $2 billion were you to fail to hit those targets? Or was if the order intake was to fall below $2 billion, say, revenue for a couple of years and you were to burn prepayments. What I'm really asking in the end is how robust is that 2 billion figure to a failure to deliver versus the targets?

Okay, on HS2, no change. Basically, I know that there is discussions on the technical part of the project, but no change from our point of view. On the 2 billion, I mean, it's fully consistent with three-year plan targets. that were disclosed last year. Again, back to what I said in November, the FFO numbers are the ones that are consistent with our EBIT target between H2 of this fiscal year and then March 26th. So it's consistent, I would say, and we will not increase the $2 billion target, depending on our views on future developments in terms of book-to-bill, down payment, or whatsoever. That's why I think the $2 billion is a good and balanced view of what we need to deliver it to the company.

Thank you. Just as a follow-up to that, do you think Moody's would be happy with the $2 billion were you to undershoot on, say, the margin target? About, say, 2026, 2027, does $2 billion still look enough if EBITDA isn't where you're targeting it to be from their point of view?

I will not speculate and I will not debate. talk on behalf, speak on behalf of Moody's, of course. But I think it's well designed. We discussed it with Moody's. I think it's, when you look at the plan, reaching zero net debt thanks to the 2 billion and the strong contribution of EBITDA so organic deleveraging is what we need to do I mean there is no magic trick here and I think it's balanced so I have no doubts that it would be well received but again subject to discussions with the credit rating agency between now and the end of H1 of next fiscal year which is the kind of milestone that has been set in the different publications of Moody's. Very clear. Thank you. Okay. I think we're done. Maybe to conclude our Q&A session, let me please wrap up some of the comments that were made during this call. We confirm that our full year outlook and mid-term guidance, and it's encouraged by Alstom's commercial momentum and improved visibility and predictability on the group's cash generation thanks to new processes that we are putting in place. Deliveraging is our number one priority, and the teams are fully mobilized to deliver on our operational and commercial agenda, on cost efficiency program and inorganic measures. We are progressing well on every front, and we will provide you with a full breakdown of inorganic transactions no later than full year results in May. All in all, we're moving in the right direction, and I am particularly satisfied with the progress made on the cash front. On that note, thank you very much, and have a good day.

Thank you for joining today's call. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now