Alstom Unsp/Adr

Hello, and welcome to Alstom third quarter orders and sales for fiscal year 2025 and 2026. My name is George, and I'll be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this conference is being recorded, and for the duration of the call, your lines will be in the listen-only mode. However, you have the opportunity to ask questions toward the end of the presentation, and this can be done by pressing star 1 on your double G pad to register your question. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero and you will be connected to an operator. And I'd like to call over to your host today, Mr. Bernard Delpy, Executive Vice President and CFO. Please go ahead, sir.

Good evening, everyone. Thanks for joining the group's orders and sales update for the third quarter of this fiscal year, 2526. Let's start with the orders on slide three. Alstom recorded 20 billion euros of orders in the first nine months. The book-to-bill ratio was 1.4, accelerating to 2 in the third quarter. As a result, the backlog reached 100.3 billion euros up from 96 at the end of September. Some color by region and product lines. The Americas are on track for the best year ever in terms of commercial momentum, with orders in Mexico and Canada this quarter adding to the large orders in New York and New Jersey booked in the first half. Europe remains the largest contributor, supported by numerous rolling stock options being exercised in France, as well as first-time orders in Central and Southern Europe. The order intake for services accelerated in the third quarter, with several large rolling stock contracts being bundled with maintenance, like for instance PKP in Poland, Baden-Württemberg in Germany, in Mexico, and in Greece. Systems also got its fair share of order intake, thanks to the turnkey contract in Melbourne. Signaling order intake was softer in Q3, but the product line had a solid first half, with contract wins in Italy, Taiwan, Brazil, and Singapore. Turning to slide four and details on the third quarter, where we booked 9.3 billion euros of orders. This record quarter reflects not only strong global demand for rail solutions, but also robust tendering activity and contract awards in geographies that we consider as our home markets. It also demonstrates our ability to provide integrated solutions to clients, not only when we sell rolling stock together with maintenance, but also when we deliver turnkey projects. It also shows the growing success of the rolling stock platforms with some of them already being in service and some others being in the final stages of approval. Looking at examples of large orders booked in the third quarter, the Averia Horizon platform continues to gain momentum as the only very high-speed double-deck solution on the market, with nearly 200 trend sets now on order across multiple clients, both private and public. In the quarter, as part of the framework agreement with SNCF, we secured two additional trenches for a total of 2 billion euros. One trench covers 30 train sets for Eurostar, which will be the first double-deck train to operate through the channel. The other trench is for 15 train sets for SNCF for international operations, notably between France and Belgium. The Coradia Max double-deck regional solution is currently under development and testing for German clients. We booked two major contracts for a total of 2.1 billion euros, one in Poland for the supply of 42 Coradia Max train sets for PKP intercity, together with long-term maintenance, another in Baden-Württemberg, where the region exercised an option for 26 additional train sets, also with NITMIS. Looking at Mexico, we signed a contract worth $920 million for the supply of 47 train sets and the maintenance for new rail corridors in the country. This project builds an awesome strong industrial footprint in Mexico and leverages the development and expertise gained through the Trenmaya project that was recently completed. In Greece, we signed a contract of nearly 400 million with Hellenic Train for 23 Coradia Stream regional train sets and 10 years of maintenance. These trains will be produced at the Svegliano site in Italy using the proven Coradia Stream platform already deployed for several customers across Europe. In Australia, We secured a 1 billion euro share of the suburban rail loop east line contract in Melbourne. Under this system contract, we will deliver 13 automated metro trains, signaling, maintenance, and range of subsystems. And in Canada, we booked a 1.4 billion euro contract for MetroCars for Toronto. I want to emphasize that this record level of order intake does not go against our selective approach when responding to tenders in the last few months a number of large contracts in switzerland or denmark for instance went to competitors because we choose not to participate when our solution was too far from the customer's requirements or because the contractual conditions were considered by us as too stringent all this considered The average margin on new orders continues to exceed the average backlog margin. Moving to operational highlights on Site 5, starting with some delivery milestones. In the third quarter, the first MF19 metro train entered service in Paris. The deployment of this new generation of rail metro trains will continue across eight metro lines through 2033. This year also includes homologation procedures underway for several major projects. This, of course, includes the available region for the launch customer SNCF under the TGV name, as well as our locomotives and the Coridia MAX double regional train solution. Now, looking at the industrial footprint, we are continuously adapting the footprint, to align with backlog and demand as well as strengthen ASTEM's competitive advantage. For example, construction of a new assembly line in France for Avelia Horizon is progressing as planned. The site in Fes, Morocco, has completed its first production line for driver's cabs and expanding its capacity in components including converters. At the same time, we continue to execute the transformation plan in Germany We are also considering various options to adapt the Bruges site in Belgium in light of current backlog. As a result of this right-sizing initiative, we now expect non-operating expenses to land above the 100 million mark. Turning to slide six on production, volumes remain broadly stable over the first nine months in line with full year plan. In the third quarter, sequential improvement in India for metros and in Germany for EMUs helped offset the seasonal slowdown in South Africa. Compared to last year, the production mix has shifted with now a higher share of projects currently in rampant phases. This evolution in the portfolio mix supports operational momentum and prepares the ground for a volume increase in Q4. We now foresee car production this year to land within a range of 4,300 to 4,400. Turning to sales on slide 7, sales reached 13.9 billion euros in the first nine months, up 7.2% on an organic basis, and down from 7.9 in H1. Q3 organic growth was 5.9%, largely due to a tough comparison base. The same effect should lead to Q4 organic growth moderating. All product lines, with the exception of systems, contributed to the sales growth. In particular, rolling stock sales totaled 7.2 billion euros, reflecting 6% organic growth. This was driven by strong ramp-up in Germany with double-digit growth across multiple regional train projects, continued momentum in France, notably supported by the RER-NG program, and in Asia-Pacific, the locomotive business in India remains an important growth driver. Services sales reached 3.4 billion with 9% organic growth, supported by strong performance in Italy, the UK, Australia, and people movers in the US. Sales in signaling came in at 2 billion, with 13% organic growth, driven by robust execution in France and Italy. Finally, system sales totaled 1.3 billion euros, flashish on an organic basis. It was impacted by the ramp down of the Mexico-Trenmaya contract, which was not fully offset by wrap-ups in the Philippines and Taiwan. We expect this trend to continue through the rest of the year. Looking at inorganic items, foreign exchange was a 3.3-point headwind driven by the euro appreciation against most currencies. To be noted, the same euro appreciation is also expected to have a mildly negative impact on margin and cash for the full year. Scope. At a negative 80 bps impact due to the deconsolidation of the North American signaling business in the first semester last year, scope was neutral in Q3. On a reported basis, sales therefore increased by 3% during the first nine months of the fiscal year. Including with slide 8 on the outlook, the set of assumptions beyond the outlook here, has not changed compared to mid-November when we reported first half results. We assume R&D at around 3% of sales, which is slightly higher than the last fiscal year and the first half year of this year. Regarding tariffs, there is no change either. We remain well protected, largely thanks to the group's multi-local footprint with several manufacturing sites in the United States. Now turning to the outlook. Based on the commercial momentum to date, we will deliver a book-to-bill above 1 at growth level as well as for rolling stock for the full year. We confirm the organic sales are expected to grow by more than 5% for the full year. We reiterate guidance of an adjusted EBIT margin around 7% for the fiscal year, with currency expected to be a bigger headwind than we anticipated back in May last year. We confirmed the free cash flow outlook of 200 to 400 million euros. We are not narrowing the guidance range. The exact timing of some commercial opportunities and operational milestones will determine where we land and whether certain cash-ins fall into Q4 on next fiscal year. With this, I will now take your questions.

Thank you very much, Mr. Depey. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, for questions, please press star 1, and just make sure that your lines are not muted in order that your signal reach your government. Our very first question today will be coming from Mr. Gael Dibery of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Oh, thanks very much. I have two questions, please. Good evening, maybe, to start with. The first question is related to these two additional orders you got from SMCF for Avelia trains this quarter. I was wondering if we can infer from these announcements that the TGVM is now fully back on track in terms of quality and in terms of ramp up. So that's question number one.

Okay. Hi, Gaël. Thank you for your question. Yeah, there is absolutely no change as of today to what was previously said in terms of timeline for the homologation, and I will let SNCF make any announcements on the review service start. No change from our point of view.

Okay, understood. And the second question is on the order dynamics. I mean, obviously, they've been super strong this quarter, but more generally, that's been the case over the past couple of quarters. Is there any risk that you had so many orders, you know, fall in this quarter that eventually we get a bit of a nail pocket for orders in the next few quarters?

Okay, fair question, and frankly, no half-pocket ahead. We have good visibility on orders for the next quarters, I would say, with, of course, some uncertainty on the timing of the booking and then the timing of some down payment collection. But, for instance, we have the regional trains for CP in Portugal that now has been cancelled, on the back burner for quite a while. We have several opportunities for which customers have already made some announcements. Just to illustrate that, the turnkey project in Belgrade, the Virgin project for very high speed for the channel. We see some commercial news flow possibly in the Ameka region. So we have good visibility. I do not expect a hair pocket, even if for sure not every year will be as strong as this fiscal year.

Okay. Thank you very much.

You're welcome. Thank you very much, sir. I'm sorry to interrupt. Our next question will be coming from Akash Gupta from JP Morgan. Go ahead.

Hi, Bernard. Thanks for your time. I have two questions as well. My first question is on working capital. So you gave this 200 to 400 million. pre-cash flow guidance months ago when visibility on seven working capital line items was low. Maybe if you can talk about how in the course of years, these assumptions have changed and based on nine months progress and outlook for the remaining couple of months, what do you expect in your latest plan versus original plans Or in other words, what I want to know is that which line items could be better than expected and which line item there may be some uncertainty versus original plan. So that's number one. And number two is on a question on non-operating expense. So you are diving for above 100 million because of the options for Belgian side. When you look at your backlog at various sides, if this one is kind of a one-off or there can be future need for adaptation in other sides that can lead to these non-operating expense can be above 100 million income areas. Thank you.

Thank you, Akash. Let me rephrase your question to be sure to check that I get them right. So first, on working capital. Yeah. In fact, it goes as we thought in the very beginning of the year. So on the one hand, the outstanding commercial momentum was anticipated, hence We thought that the down payments would be back-end loaded. We have visibility on that. So down payments in H2 should be higher than in H1. It goes as planned, nothing has changed, but it's still back-end loaded as we anticipated since the beginning of the year. On the other hand, it's true that we have a higher share of options in the order intake, So when you are considering the record level of order intake, you need to keep that in mind when making your exceptions in terms of cash in. We have several orders that are booked in H2, but with no down payments, but rather what I would call installments of a few quarters. Okay, so that's also to be considered in the working cap dynamics. and we have also some projects that are still awaiting homologation milestones. I will not discuss again the TGV, so you know this one will come next fiscal year, but we have also some projects that are still in the homologation phase, so it could fall either in Q4 or next year. So, therefore, the guidance hasn't changed. We keep the range as it is. You know that I consider it's already a very narrow range in terms of lending for cash. We are managing billions of cash in and cash out every month. So I'm not narrowing the guidance, as I said, I think because it goes as planned since the very beginning of the year. Does it answer your question, Akash, on working capital?

I mean, it does look really some color on, like, when you look at the level of contract assets, what's your thinking now versus start of the year? Do you think you are still on track, or will there be more? I mean, overall, I think everything is fine with your plan, but I was asking more on the different line items. Has there been any change versus your original anticipation at the start of the year?

Frankly, it's difficult for me to go into the detail of the balance sheet at the end of Q3, so I will not collaborate on that. We see very much this year with working capital as a headwind to cash generation, but contract working capital could be a tailwind in H2 versus what you have seen in H1. So that's all I can say at that stage of the year. Now, your second question was non-operational expenses. Was it it, Akash?

Yeah, so you guided for more than $100 million this year because you are considering option for building site. I wanted to ask, when we look at the other sites, is this one off or could this non-operating expense maybe above $100 million in the coming years as well?

Yeah, by definition, all non-operational expenses are one-offs. And for the moment, we were just considering some right-sizing of the Bruges site. We are contemplating different scenarios for the future of the site. So let's say it's our view as we speak today. By the way, we have some other sites in terms of engineering that, and I will not detail the geographies where we are also thinking of some restructuring. So I was just mentioning that because that's previously I guided for 100 million NOE. It could be north of NOE. You could maybe take 150 million in your model if it helps you.

Thank you.

You're welcome. Thank you very much. Great question, sir. We will now go to Vlad Sergievski of Parsons. Please go ahead. Vlad is open, sir.

Yes, good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking my question. I'll try to ask on free cash flow guidance as well. So to deliver the second half cash flow that you are aiming for, you would require significant points to 14 capital contributions.

Can I ask, outside of the arguably higher prepayments or contract liabilities, are there any other working capital lines that could contribute a meaningful positive number?

Or we will be talking predominantly about contract liabilities here. And my second question related to cash flow is on the dividend from Chinese JVs. Do you expect any cash flow contribution from this dividend in the second half of this year? I can see previously sometimes you got this dividend in the second half and sometimes you didn't. Any plans for this year would be very helpful. Thank you very much. So I would start with the second one. So you know it's unbalanced between H1 and H2 in terms of dividends. This year would be strong in terms of contribution of the JVs, but in terms of dividends, yes, indeed, it's pretty unbalanced between H1 and H2, so I expect H2 to be below H1 this year. Now, in terms of contract working cap, I see down payment. as a driver for contract liabilities, but also we'll see that it will depend, again, on homologation timing, some contract asset moves as well. But beyond those two points, nothing really to mention here.

Thanks very much.

Thank you very much, sir. Next question this evening, we're coming from . Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Yes, good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two. First, Germany, can you address us a little bit on your strategy there? Where are you in terms of efficiency improvement? Well, you mentioned production ramp-up, and you continue to sign orders, so any inflection as compared to what you told us a few months ago. And second question, it seems that CAF, so your Spanish competitor, may consider or be advised to consider your participation to the contract you lost recently against them, and I'm What is your view on this potential offer?

So on Germany, no change, no change in our strategy. We continue to adapt our footprint. to the demand and to what we consider will be a normal and average level of business in Germany. So, no change here. The total PC, I mean, the production of cars this year will increase a lot, so that will help to reduce the indoor absorption of fixed costs in Germany, so that goes in the right direction. But it's only one step. There are continuous steps in order to turn around the business here in Germany, but it goes in the right direction. And it's not because we are being awarded new contracts that we will change our strategy because we need, again, to reshuffle our capacity there and to turn the business with more services. the installed fleet will continue to grow. But in terms of, I would say, car production, assembly line, we stick to the plan. We are happy because the Gurlitz plan now is ready to be handed over to to KNDS, that's done, that's well executed, and we continue to discuss with unions on the future of different sites, so no change in the policy. We are very happy with the new awarded contract, but it doesn't change our view of the need to restructure our business in Germany. Now, for CAF, I haven't received any call from our partner. We know them well. If they are interested in Bruges, happy to discuss.

Thank you. Thank you very much, Matt. Next question is coming from Daniela Costa of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. So on the first one, I just wanted to check. This year, I think you've said the share of ramp-ups that were in terms of what you were executing was higher than last year, given we see this big order intake in this quarter and recently. Do you expect the profile to continue to be sort of more skewed to ramp-ups also looking into the next year? That's the first question. I'll ask the second after this.

Yeah, I will not start to discuss next year, Daniela, so I will limit myself to give you one number. The ramp-up projects that represented, I would say, something like 10% of the total cars that we produced last year, it will be 20% this year. So that's a change, right? So when you consider that we will end the year at the same level as last year, the effort to get there is much greater because the ramp-ups are, by definition, more challenging projects. But for next year, let's wait for the guidance in May to discuss it.

Sure. And my second question, maybe you want to reply given it relates to the next few years. But I guess in the past, Alston used to have a slide that some capital market stays where you had like how much of the backlog was covering already the next few years. So if we look at how big the backlog is now, can you walk us through which visibility it is giving you, you know, how much is covered next year, the year after, like you used to do in the past?

I'm not sure I get that. You know that our, I would say, usual long-term guidance is to have a book to build above one. It will not change. So this year, yes, it's record year. but frankly it doesn't change our long-term view on our policy to continue to grow and to change the mix, which is an important part of our strategy. And I'm sure you noticed that the share of bundled deals is pretty strong, which goes in the right direction. So we'll come back to you with more figures at the end of the year to see how much of – Next year our program is already covered by existing backlog, but I guess that the vast majority of what we will have to produce and deliver next year is already booked by definition.

Okay. Thank you.

Thank you very much for your questions. We'll now go to Lucas Firani of Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thanks for taking the time to answer. I have two questions as well. Maybe the first one, it was a very helpful comment on the selectivity, the margin, and the backlog. I guess just to be more precise, if we were to show that slide on, you know, the backlog and the gross margin development, I think it reached kind of 18% in H1. Obviously, the mix of rolling stock is quite heavy this time, but do you think it would continue to go up sequentially? That would be the first one.

And the answer is yes.

Thank you. And the second one would be on restructuring. I think you mentioned you're still looking at restructuring in other geographies potentially. Just wondering where do you think maybe the balance of demand capacity is still not right? Where would you look at making changes?

Well, frankly, what we've seen into this year, is really helping in terms of balancing capacity and activity. Because where we could have faced more capacity was in the U.S., and as the order of The orders were very strong this year. Now we do not foresee potential restructuring or other capacity in this country. I would say the same thing in Mexico. We are at the end of the deliveries of... of the Tren Maya project and now we have a new one in Mexico. So I would say that the granularity of our order intake this year fits well with where we have capacity. So no specific geographies except the one I mentioned already in Europe, both in Germany and maybe in Belgium where we are thinking of the different options because of the decision of SNCB.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you for your question, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you have any questions or follow-up questions, please press star 1 at this time. We'll now go to Martin Wilkie calling from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open, sir.

Yeah, thank you. Good evening. It's Martin from Citi. The question I had was on raw material inflation. You mentioned earlier that you are well protected on tariffs, but also we have seen some metal prices creep up at the end of last year, particularly copper and so forth. And I know in the past you've talked about indexation and other ways that you are protected from that, but given how quickly those prices have come up in the end of 2025, are you comfortable that you're protected from any rise in both aluminum and copper in terms of what you're producing over the next two or three years?

Thank you. Hi, Martin. Nothing really specific to report here. We have contracts. We think we are protected both in terms of cost, on the cost side, with some long-term contracts for some raw material, and also on the selling price side with escalation closes. So we think we are pretty well protected, and I have not been reported that we have any specific issues on some specific ROMAT items.

Great. Thank you very much. That was it. Thank you. Thank you, sir.

Next question coming from Louis Billon of Alpha Value. Please go ahead, sir.

Hi, good evening. Thank you for taking my question. So my first question is about signaling. So the Forex impact in signaling is quite high, that you have mentioned that the signaling was, the execution was solid in Italy and in France. So from which country is the impact of Forex and should we not, what is the situation in Germany for signaling and why you haven't mentioned it in the solid execution?

Well, in fact, yes, we are growing our signaling business in Germany but maybe not as much as we hope because it takes time for the local operator to award some contracts in signaling. So it takes more time than what we expected. I don't know exactly what you were mentioning in terms of scope. You know that last year we exited other conventional signaling business in the U.S. That's why we have this negative scope impact and it has to be taken into account when looking at SIG evolution, signaling evolution, but nothing really to, nothing specific to report. Indeed, good execution in Italy, in the UK, in France, and it's ramping up in Germany, but not at the pace that we expected.

Okay. My question was about the forex impact, not the scope impact. So, yeah. And maybe also... Please? Yeah, also on the Dutchban new CEO, I understand that from your peers that Dutchban was a bottleneck and do you think with a new CEO it could help your business in Germany?

Well, frankly, no use from me on any specific question on the new CEO of And on FX, nothing really to mention. Most of our signaling business is in Europe, by the way, so not really a lot of FX. But in the U.K., where we have a large signaling business, and yes, indeed, there is an FX impact. So for signaling, we are 4% up on reported terms on the first nine months. That's 13% organic growth, so it's moving definitely in the right direction.

Okay. Maybe a last question, if I may. So in the last call, you mentioned that you were maybe thinking of increasing the guidance, and you haven't. So what are the reasons for not upgrading the guidance, and is it related to the postponement of the high-speed train with the Adelias platform?

Not really. I mean, yes, indeed. And that's what I think I said just before. Now the cash-in from TGV will mostly come starting next year. But, no, I said that I didn't narrow the – we did not narrow the guidance because we are still some important milestones. both from a commercial point of view and operational point of view in Q4. So some uncertainty, that's why it was not the proper time to narrow the guidance. That's it. And again, 200 million gap range is really something that for me is not material considering all the amounts of cash-in and cash-out that we manage every quarter. Okay, thank you.

Thank you, Mr. Biddle. I'm going to go to Jonathan Mountie of BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Hello, everyone. Thanks for fitting me in, Bernard. A couple of questions. First, it's really a housekeeping question. When I look at Bloomberg Consensus, it has a positive dividend for 2026. I was thinking more as if this was not the time to start reinstating the dividend, maybe just a bit of clarification. on that one and then as a second question thinking more out into the latter years obviously a couple of years ago you set the target and I think the key target is the cumulative free cash flow the 1.5 billion or at least 1.5 billion by 2027. Obviously in May we'll be kind of less than a year away from that and I just wonder are you going to wait to deliver the free cash flow before thinking about what comes next or with a year to go can we maybe expect in May you may be thinking about new mid-term targets, pushing out maybe to 29 or 23. You just want to get some expectations of how we'll be thinking about the company. Usually, the investment case extends beyond the year, so maybe May is the time to start talking about the years that come after 2027. Thank you.

Okay. Jonathan, thank you for those two questions that I will not answer, of course, because when it comes to dividend, it's not my decision, but it's going to be a board decision. You know, the kind of framework we shared during the 2023-2024 debt averaging period, we said that we would start to install dividend once we get to net debt zero. I don't think we'll be there at the end of this fiscal year, maybe the next one, so I think we'll answer to your question, which is a fair one, in due time. And then for free cash flow guidance in the midterm, please wait for Martin Sion to join the company and to make his mind. The commitment is 1.5 billion, and I reiterate it tonight. So let's do it, and we'll see what we will do in terms of midterm guidance in May. Thank you. You're welcome. I think we are done for tonight. Thank you very much. your time thank you for your questions and looking forward meeting you in the next uh weeks and uh and for the next call on in in may with martin bye thank you very much ladies and gentlemen that will conclude today's conference thank you for attending this connect have a good day and goodbye