Ams Osram Ag Unsp/Adr

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome and thank you for joining the conference call on third quarter 2023 results. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, you may press star followed by one on your telephone. Please press the star key followed by zero for operator assistance. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jürgen Kreml, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Hello, good morning, everyone. This is Juergen speaking. I would like to welcome to our Q&A call for investors and analysts. With me are Alzo, CEO, and Rainer, CFO. Alzo will comment on business update and strategy. Rainer will comment on financials and how to assess the financing plan. After the introductory remarks, we're happy to answer your questions. Aldo and Rainer will refer to the presentation that you'll find on our website. Aldo, please walk us through the Q3 business update now.

Thank you, Juergen, and good morning to everybody from my side as well. The business environment is certainly not easy, but I think we have delivered a solid third quarter. Let us take a look at slide number four. CO3 revenues grew nicely by 6% quarter-on-quarter to €904 million. We landed above the midpoint of our guided range. One year ago, we stood on a like-for-like basis, excluding divestments in the land assistance segment, at €1,093,000,000. As such, we see a nominal decline of 7% year-on-year. However, we need to consider two things. The US dollar weakened as the average exchange rate one year ago to the 101 compared to an average exchange rate of 109 in Q3. At constant currencies, dominated by US dollar-euro, Q3 revenues would have been 43 million euro higher. So, the currency effect accounts for around 4% decline year-on-year. Second, the remaining decline of around 3% is mainly due to the weakness of several end markets, especially industrial and consumer. We'll talk about it in more detail afterwards. Adjusted EBIT improved even more, from €50 million in Q2 to €71 million in Q3, an increase of 42%, driven by strict cost control and higher volumes. Furthermore, some €10 million were due to a positive one-off effect related to a catch-up effect in government trends. This resulted in an adjusted EBIT margin of 8%, better, but still far away from where we want to be. It is our clear ambition to significantly increase profitability and our re-establish the base program we will ensure that we will deliver on this promise. Now let us take a look at our biggest segment semiconductors on slide number 5. Revenues improved by 8% from Q2 and came in at 648 million euro. All end market, automotive, industrial, medical and consumer contributed positively. However, in detail, the picture is very diverse, which I will comment on in a moment. Adjusted EBIT of the semiconductor segment almost tripled sequentially, with 6% adjusted EBIT margin of €36 million in absolute terms, up from 2% or €13 million in Q2. Higher loading contributed to improved results. Furthermore, the steep increase was also supported by this catch-up effect I spoke about related to the overseas funding. Let us switch to slide number six, looking at the dynamics in the end markets. Our automotive ALD products were in high demand, especially in China, with an increasingly short-notice order pattern. We could even grow year-on-year by 2% in automotive. Although we grew revenue from products for industrial medical applications compared to last quarter, the year-on-year comparison reveals the massive macroeconomic pressure in essentially all verticals. We are down by 26%. We're all aware of the problems in the construction sector worldwide, and this is leading to a weak demand for industrial outdoor lighting LED products. Another example is horticulture. Higher energy prices and high borrowing costs hamper developers. Consequently, horticulture project development is weak, and we saw fewer hybrid LEDs, although we did see an uptick in demand from QT to Q3. The weakness in industrial is seen both in mass market and OEMs. Medical business also remains subdued. Coming to consumer, on the positive side, we saw a decent seasonal upswing of 6% driven by our leading position Android smartphones for our products. On the negative side, we still see a significant year-on-year decline due to the phasing out of some big sockets, as we told you before. Also, macronomic pressures weigh on global smartphone sales, especially in the relevant premium segments. Now let me come to one of today's highlights, the fantastic traction that our cutting-edge LED and sensor products find in their target markets. The increase in design wind tally confirms our structural growth model. Let's take a look at slide number seven. First, we continue to add many new designs with our high-pixel forward lighting solution called Evios. Design wind now stands at more than €250 million, but by more than €100 million since Q2, and traction remains strong. It is the mid- to high-end forward lighting solution of choice for many OEMs now, and you will soon see more and more cars on the road using our solution. The first will be on the new Volkswagen Touareg. You might have seen it. I recently drove a car myself with our Envios technology in a Mercedes that really makes a noticeable, impressive difference versus existing solutions. Second, our recently launched and intelligent ambient light for cars, iRGB, already landed more than 100 million euros in design minutes. The interior lighting is increasingly becoming interactive, and with that the number of multi-color LEDs grows from tens to hundreds per car. Third, our new LED on foil technology for automotive, Elios, which creates light out of nothing, and all that allows for entirely new light designs. It's raised incredible interest among our customers when we launched it a couple of weeks ago. It caters not only to the desires of car designers, but also enables more interactive content on the rear of our cars. Many OEMs in Tier 1 are seeking a close cooperation to quickly bring this technology on their vehicles. Please see our website also for a nice video illustrating this exciting new technology, a true world first. Fourth, looking at medical applications, we won more than 50 million euro lifetime value design with one of our specialty sensors for computer thermography. We are a key partner for almost all OEMs in this space and continue to have good traction. Fifth, our family of LED and laser light sources and modules for near-eye projection will be an integral component in many AR-VR devices. We have first designed ones for the LED-based components and see strong interest for a laser-based solution. However, we are all aware of the uncertainty of the AR-VR market and we are cautious in terms of its outlook until it really takes off. Nevertheless, it nicely shows how we can combine our unique blend of LED and IC competence in novel products. With this, let me switch to page number 8. The lamps and systems segment performed as expected. The 2% quarter-on-quarter improvement in revenues to €256 million increased, are on the back of a continued strong automotive aftermarket business, with a clear leader in this market and an important partner to our retailers that rely strongly on our brand and our ability to drive traffic in their stores. In comparison, the sales in industrial and entertainment applications declined in lamps and systems segments by 15% compared to Q2, reflecting the weak environment in industrial in general. Adjusted EBIT came in strong and on a comparable basis to Q2, with 14% or €35 million in Q3. We've also received quite a few questions on what assumptions we have for the relative contribution of the various growth drivers. I'm now on slide 9. First, we reaffirm our growth model with 6-10% CAGR from the new base after exiting the non-core semiconductor businesses. I explained a few examples of the strong design wind base and momentum we see early in the call. With this in mind, we see the largest revenue growth and EBIT contribution from automotive in this trajectory going forward, where we are the clear market leader. This, followed by meaningful design with light sensor products and smartphone applications, and next in line are the growth contributions from our new 8-inch facility in Malaysia. We assumed further many other contributions from growth factors in industrial, medical, and selected consumer applications, but did give you a flavor of the ranking of the growth opportunities for us in next years. We also continue to target around 15% adjusted EBIT in 26, based on this growth model, in conjunction with successful execution of our re-establish the base program. With this, let me hand over to Rainer for more details.

Thank you, Aldo, and good morning, everybody. We are on page 10 now. Adjusted gross profit improved by 11% quarter-on-quarter, coming in at 263 million euros. Gross margins to the 29% improvement, but still not where we want and need to be. The improvement was driven by a favorable product mix and an improved loading in Q3. However, we still suffer from meaningful underutilization effects. The adjusted R&D expenses came down by 11% to €96 million from €105 million in Q2, which is basically due to a catch-up effect in the IPSE funding. R&D expenses will be higher in Q4. Adjusted SG&E expenses saw a small positive one-off effect in Q2 and increased to €100 million in Q3. Over time, we want to bring this run rate down to single digit as part of our re-establish the base program. With this, let us take a look at adjusted net result and earnings per share on slide number 11. The adjusted net result stays almost flat with 29 million euro in Q3. compared to 31 million in Q2. We recorded a higher operating profit in Q2, but the financial result was 9 million euro more negative in Q3, mostly due to FX. The clean IFRS reported net result stood at minus 55 million euro in Q3, and the adjusted diluted earnings per share were 11 euro cents in Q3 compared to 12 euro cents in Q2. The clean IFS diluted earnings per share stood at minus 21 euro cents. Clearly, it is our ambition to improve this. And now on slide 12, the operating cash flow still came in strong at 199 million euro in Q3 compared to 232 million in Q2. We made significant progress in the reduction of our working capital in Q3. The second quarter, had positive effects from the introduction of reverse factory. As we still see high capital expenditures, especially for completing the first phase of our industry-first eight-inch Coulomb manufacturing facility, the free cash flow was negative at 63 million euro in Q3. Clearly, an around 30% capex to sales ratio is an exceptional situation for enabling a long-term asset and it will come down significantly next year. We spent essentially the same amount of 262 million Euro in Q3 as we had spent in Q2. Now, let us spend some minutes on the implementation status of our comprehensive financing plan we announced on September 27th. For this, please turn to slide 13. While the plan was widely appreciated, as necessary and well-balanced, we saw a massive increase in stock growing and a share price decline that we believe does not reflect the positive business development. We want to get in €2.25 billion for financing the maturities in 2024 and 2025. We also want to reduce our debt level to get to a roughly 30% pro forma equity ratio. The essence of this plan is a combined rights issue and placement of new senior unsecured notes. This is complemented by some asset level transactions for optimizing the interest payment burden and a small additional package in 24 where we want to decide on the instrument subject to market conditions. You find a summary of the plan measures on the left side of this slide. We are very pleased with the progress we are making implementing the plan. First, the EGM approved the rights issue for raising €800 million new capital without any contestation on October 20th. Second, the asset level transactions are signed. Yesterday, we announced that we will receive around €450 million in proceeds, €150 million more than originally announced. The main transaction relates to a sale and leaseback of our new Kulim 8-inch facility, or the building of the facility, with expected proceeds of around €400 million. We also close the divestment of an already phased out manufacturing facility in Asia, which accounts for the balance to the total sum of proceeds. Third, the preparations and documentation for the rights issue and the placement of new senior nodes are well on track. And we plan to execute both transactions by the end of this calendar year. Fourth, we recognize part of the IPSE subsidies and will receive first payments under the 300 million euro over five years. First, we decided to terminate the program to sell our self-held treasury shares. And now let me get you to the guidance for the forced border and the assumptions how to get to around 15% adjusted EBIT by 26. And for this, we look at page 14. We expect revenues for the forced border to be in the range of 850 to 950 million euro, so basically flat. We also expect the adjusted EBIT to come in slightly below last quarter, namely between 5% and 8%. Please remember that Q3 adjusted EBIT was at the upper end of this band, also because of one-time effects such as the catch-up of IPSE funding of the order of 10 million euro. And that is really the only reason for a change in Q4. For the fourth quarter, we assume an average US dollar to euro exchange rate of 110. Now, looking into next year, in 2024, we want to divest or exit certain non-core semiconductor businesses. This will lower the starting base for our midterm gross metal model by about 300 to 400 million euro compared to the top line level in 2023. We expect some inventory corrections, especially in the industrial applications in the first half of 2024. The second half then of 24 should come in stronger than the first half, driven by design wins going into production and the end of the inventory corrections. Based on our reestablished base program, we expect about 75 million euro run rate savings at year end. We also expect the free cash flow, including divestments, to be positive. which means excluding interest payments. Now, we have received a lot of questions around the free cash flow in 24. Let me add some additional flavor here. CapEx in 24 will be in the order of €450 million. Plus, minus quite a bit, as we have no approved budget yet, but I think that gives you a good order of magnitude. Now, the cash out from investments is expected to be much higher, to be north of 600 million euro. And why is that? We are investing so much in Q4 of this year, which will then be paid in 2024, and we will be investing so little in Q4 2024, which will be paid in 2025, that there is a massive reduction in accounts payable related to CapEx in 2024. basically paying the overhang of 23 in 24. As Aldo mentioned already, we reaffirm our mid-term target financial model. And for this, we assume a further recovery of the market and more design wins going into production to show top line growth within the 6% to 10% CAGR range according to our model. With full implementation of our Re-establish the Base program, we expect about 150 million euro run rate EBIT improvement in 26. Higher volumes, growth from new designs in automotive, mobile sensors, sales from the 8-inch coolant factory, and the many other growth drivers, and the impact from Re-establish the Base should bring us to around 15% adjusted EBIT as per our model. Already in 25, we target a 10% capex to sales ratio with improving free cash flow in 25 and thereafter. And with this, back to Aldo.

Thank you, Rainer. So let me just summarize the key takeaways for today. We delivered a solid revenue and adjusted EBIT in Q3. We see strong design wind momentum, especially in automotive. The outlook for Q4 makes Rainer outline the solid in a difficult market. We reconfer our structural growth model with 6-10% CAGR from the new base, with larger contributions from automotive, mobile light sensors and revenues from our new 8-inch factory in Kulin, and contributions from the other road drivers. Our re-establish the base efficiency program is well on track, and the organizational changes that were part of this actually already went live on October 1st. And, also very important, our refinancing is progressing well. We look forward to close this topic till the end to fully focus on business execution in 2024. This concludes our introduction remarks and we're happy to take your questions now.

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we'll begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on the touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. Our first question comes from the line of Gennaro Menon with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to take a look at your margin trend. You said it's the 10 million which has affected the margin in Q4. which if I take that off comes to about 6.8%, which is in the midpoint of your guidance range. But when you look out into the first half of 2024 or 2024 in general, can you give us some of the puts and takes? You've said the first half will be weak, second half will be stronger. Can we assume that that is true for margins or will you be able to, because of the cost reduction, et cetera, be able to maintain the sort of second half 23 run rate of margin into first half and then improve from there in the second half of just any color on how you see that margin trend through 2024 would be great.

Yeah, it is probably a bit early to give your more complete guidance for next year. I mean, overall, we obviously aspire to improve the margin next year. As we said, the first half, we kind of see a bit of inventory correction, particularly in the industry. The good thing is once that inventory correction is over, you're immediately back to normal. And for the second half, we really have a lot of design wins already achieved today. So we are very positive about the second half of the year.

So just on those design wins, I mean, previously, you know, AMS has talked about a smartphone sensor design win ramping second half next year, which I think you alluded to once again in today's press release as well. When you look beyond that design win, are we talking about some of your new automotive design wins, or is it more on the consumer side? Anything? Any color on which end market the design wins that will ramp specifically in the second half of next year will be in?

Yeah, let me take that follow-up question. And yes, automotive plays an important role in that. As I said before, EBIOS has a lot of good traction and we see more and more car models also coming online with this technology next year. And this is a high ESP product, so it will make a difference. Also, the strong momentum on the IRGB, on this intelligent multicolor LED, is surprisingly strong. We really see a lot of these new platforms that people put more functionality also in the interior lighting. It's not just ambient lighting anymore. It starts to serve a function. And with that, the amount of LEDs is much higher. And this is really driven by all of the new EV platforms, especially from China, that are increasingly using this functionality and are putting the other car makers under pressure to do something similar. So we also here expect significant uptick in the second half of next year. But yes, it also is in the other segments. Like you said, we have a significant sensor ramp-up in the middle of 24 ahead of us. And also in the medical space, we have new programs coming in. So it is fairly broad-based, but yes, the sensors and the forward lighting are two big topics in that.

And can you confirm that the new design wins, like the automotive lighting design wins, are sort of at a margin level, which is at least at your 15% long term or even higher, because presumably you will have lower margin segments also in coming years. Is that a fair assumption?

Yes, I mean, these are good products with strong differentiation, so also with a good margin potential. These products are at the moment still in rent. If you rent, usually you're not at the height of your profitability yet, but overall, once these products scale, these will be solid profit contributors.

And my last question is, on your CapEx cash flow, Can we assume that your capex will drop in Q1 and therefore your cash flows will drop in Q2? Or is there some further spending to be done in the first half and then it drops into the second half of the year?

Yeah, I mean, the second one is right. I mean, it is high in Q3, Q4, and it will continue to be elevated in the first half of the year as we are kind of moving in more equipment into the Krulim 8-inch facility. And then it will come down in the second half of the year. That is also why I said that Q4 this year will be high and Q4 next year will be low, and that also creates the hangover in the accounts payable from CapEx.

Understood. Thank you.

The next question comes from with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thanks for letting me on. My question is regarding the product you're building for your big customer in consumer, how the testing of that product is going and what is the progress on that? And in terms of the micro-LED product, when you think you will have a micro-LED product in the market? That's my first question.

Well, as we outlined, we see for the 26 midterm guidance that we have given that micro LTE will start to contribute meaningfully or will contribute meaningfully. So that's still our assumption and we are working towards that as we just outlined.

And my second question is in terms of the consumer market, are you seeing any revival at all in terms of You know, in your guidance itself, it doesn't seem to be seeing any revival of the consumer market at this point, whereas we are seeing some signs in the smartphone market that things are coming back in the fourth quarter. But is this because of share loss that has occurred in the past, or is this because you are not seeing it at this point? Maybe I'm trying to understand what is happening in the particularly Android world as such, really.

No, I think we are seeing something similar to what you're describing. You're seeing some signs of life in the Android space, and we are benefiting from that as we are still designed in all the mid- and high-end phones with our mid-light sensor and camera enhancement products. So we are seeing a bit of an uptick, but it is still at a relatively low overall level. But the tendency is positive. Whether that sticks after the race for market share in this year, whether it then continues into next year, we'll have to see.

Thank you so much.

You're welcome.

The next question comes from Rana Sararuso with Bernstein.

Please go ahead. Hello, thanks for taking my question. So you indicate in your outlook from a market conditions perspective that you're expecting it to remain challenging for the next 12 months. Some of your auto semis peers have indicated they're starting from a baseline of modeling flat growth for auto volumes for 2024, so 85 million vehicles. Can you talk about your base case assumptions for the auto market going into 2024?

Sure. Yeah, we share that view that there will be little volume growth next year, a bit, but not a lot. The majority of our growth clearly comes from our new product introductions, and they're going to happen. I mean, we know what programs we're on, and we know the ASPs of those products, and with that, we actually look into a quite solid 24, even though volumes are fairly flat.

Great. And then just as a follow-up, on the disposals progress, the $300 to $400 million, it looks like the timing of that, you're still expecting that to happen in the 2024 time period. Can you just confirm that and any commentary on progress and conversations? I think you said early signs were positive, but looking just for a little more color on that.

No, we continue to believe that stepwise we will execute these divestments in 24. We've spoken about the passive optical component business. That's the one highest on our list and where we have very active engagement at the moment. So we expect that it's going to be the first in line. But also for the other businesses, we have put the system in motion, if you will, put all the financials together, start a conversation. So also that is progressing. But some of them will take a little longer. But 24 continues to be the right modeling assumption.

Great. Thank you very much.

You're welcome.

The next question comes from the line of Sebastien Stabovic with Kepler Shiver. Please go ahead.

Hi everyone and thanks for taking my question. What kind of underloading charges have you recorded in the third quarter and what do you expect in terms of underloading charges for the first quarter? This would be the first question. And the second one is relating to inventories In your main market, where do you see inventories in your main market like automotive, consumer, industrial and medical? Is it possible to quantify the level of inventory today? Thank you.

On your first question, high level, think about the next quarter overall in revenue being flat, but this is the quarter where the aftermarket business, the replacement lamp business, is usually very strong. So it's basically sad that we'll see a further uptick in automotive aftermarket replacement lamps. Therefore, a bit less volume on the semiconductor side, but it's still a quite solid quarter, fairly similar to Q3, but with a slight mix change, as I indicated. In terms of the inventory in the channel, here a very mixed picture actually in automotive where we had a lot of inventory beginning of the year. You remember we worked through this in the second quarter. We now see healthy, in some product categories even quite low, inventory levels. Consumer is fairly normal and unchanged. At the moment where we see the biggest issue is on the industrial side, where we see both industrial and medical being fairly high, and that's what Ryan also indicated. We do expect that we will work through that beginning of next year to come down to more reasonable levels.

And on the underloading charges, what was the impact in Q3? Could you quantify the basis points that you have in terms of negative impact?

Yeah, I mean, Sebastian, you could say that if all of our lines would be fully loaded, our margin would be 10% higher. But kind of, I mean, I have never seen that all lines 100% loaded, but kind of, you know, we could very well expect to see a significant mid-digit improvement once the markets pick up.

Okay, thank you.

The next question comes from Jürgen Wagner with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Yeah, good morning. Thank you. A question on your midterm margin. Over the past weeks, you announced several subsidy programs also go into your OPEX. How should we look at your margin target longer term? How much benefits do you expect? Or is it why not higher? And then on your rights issue, What is the base case when you will announce the price? Thank you.

Yeah, so on the subsidies, maybe giving a bit more flavor. I mean, we're getting, I mean, from the IPSE, we're getting a bit more than 300 million. Not all of that will go into the bottom line, obviously. Some also reduces the capitalization of the R&D. You could probably assume that it is a good 20 million positive effect on the P&L on an annualized basis. We have the catch-up effect in Q3, basically booking it for three quarters. Starting Q4, we will book around 5 million positive contribution from that. The other subsidies we're getting in Malaysia, and I mean we also applied for additional subsidies under the European Ships Act, that would be investment grants that would reduce the value of the assets on hand and therefore then the depreciation going forward. On the timing of the rights issue and the high yield bond, We will launch that as soon as practically possible. Preparations are very far, and as we said, we aim at kind of concluding all of that within this year.

Okay. Thank you.

The next question comes from . Research partners, please go ahead.

Yes. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. I have a few related to the micro-LED and your new fab in Kalim. I was wondering, based on your current investment program for the Kalim factory, what is the maximum revenue you will be able to generate in 2025 in that fab? And then secondly, how many different customer projects have you already placed or have already placed orders for the micro-LEDs?

We are very focused on bringing the first program to market with one key customer and that's really our core focus at the moment. This is a challenging technology to bring to market and therefore it's important that we get the first one done and then based on that other programs will follow. We gave you a feeling of the relative magnitude of the contribution in 26 and we said auto first, sensor second, coulomb third. So it's a meaningful amount that you can derive from that sequence that we gave you.

Okay, and in terms of maximum revenues per annum?

That's what I just answered. Try to do them out.

Okay, I will think about it. Thank you.

The next question comes from the line of Simon Coles with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks for taking the questions. First one is this. You must have met lots of investors over the last month or so. So I was just wondering any key areas of interest, concern, and if you've had signs of commitment for some anchor investors for the rights raise. And then the second one is just on the sale and lease back on Kulim. Ten-year contract, you said, in the press release yesterday. But I didn't see any comments about renewals, but I'm assuming you do have sort of automatic renewals in that lease back. So just any comment on that would be helpful as well. Thank you.

Yeah, Simon. Okay. So we actually met a lot of investors, and I believe that most of the investors that we are meeting actually kind of are very encouraging that we are doing the right thing. They believe in this story. They understand that the rights issue is a necessary thing to do. They understand that kind of 24 will be kind of a bridge year where things improve, but capex is still a bit elevated, but that we are on the right track to achieving 26. Also kind of from the questions we're getting, I believe a lot of investors are sidelined and waiting for the right point of time to come in. Obviously, stock borrowing is high currently. The good thing is kind of they all need to close that at a certain point of time. Now, the CoolM transaction really, I mean, it's probably very complicated to explain all details, but in a simplified way, we sell the shell, the building of our new factory to some pension funds in Malaysia, and we will buy it back after 10 years, or we can also buy it back earlier if we want. So it's more kind of in a way like a secured loan where we pay rent, but the rent is accounted for as interest. The interest payment will be a bit backloaded, so the annual kind of coupon rent is lower, and there's kind of a catch-up payment at the very end of the agreement.

Okay, that's very helpful. Thank you. Could I have a quick follow-up? What are you expecting sort of pro forma interest costs to be then, say, in 25 or 24 after everything is sorted?

Yeah, also that's a very good question. It obviously depends on kind of what we will see now in the pricing of the high-yield bond. So I would prefer to kind of get into more detail on that one when we talk about Q1.

Fair enough. Thank you very much.

There are no more questions at this time.

All right. Thank you very much for your questions. If there are any further questions around, you can contact us from the rest of the sessions. You will find all the material on our website. And with that, yes, let's close the call. And thank you very much, and have a good day.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.